S31: Spoilers

[cooksdelight]

Oooh.... sweet little Tasha who's worried about what her folks back home will think? This could get really good!

[LadyChatts]

It better be something better than she flipped on an alliance and people are pissed because they got outplayed.  Because that's the game folks, and I get more irritated with the people who get all up in arms because someone did what they thought was better for them.  However, this could go along with her talking about being mean and aggressive Tasha.  There was that photo of him, Kimmi, and Joe post game where Kimmi had the huge weight loss, so that could mean they all make the merge and possibly get screwed by Tasha.  Still, I wouldn't completely rule out Varner trolling the fans.  

 

It oddly makes me want to root for Tasha even more, and hope they are editing the rest of them to look like the original AS style sore losers.  That is, of course, without knowing what she might have done.

Edited October 5, 2015 by LadyChatts

[wonald]

I doubt Varner is trolling since he deleted that Periscope about 3 hrs after it happened. Ooops!

 

It sounds like Tasha using her religious righteousness loses her the mil, just like it did Coach 3.0 in SP. Religious hypocracy is always a bad thing in Survivor.

[LanceM]

I didn't see it but he apparently also said multiple times that Kelley was playing the best game out there, leading some to speculate that she wins and that they made the right decision booting Shirin over Spencer, which kind of implies that Spencer ain't winning.

[anthonyd46]

I didn't see it but he apparently also said multiple times that Kelley was playing the best game out there, leading some to speculate that she wins and that they made the right decision booting Shirin over Spencer, which kind of implies that Spencer ain't winning.

One of those "hoax" spoilers said Kelly booted Tasha at the F4 and Tasha was pissed off at it. This was said to be a hoax, however, maybe they meant Kelley. I'm not deleting that the Brandon Hantz spoiler  from my brain until we see otherwise. That was Jeff/Kelley/Keith. I can definitely see all 3 of those in the finals so far thats the closest to legit one we have I think. All we have on that one negatively is Redmond saying it was fake, however, he noted his source might be giving him the fake answer to stop spoilers from spreading. So Redmond is not sure if it really is fake or he was just being told it was. 

Edited October 5, 2015 by anthonyd46

[LadyChatts]

I doubt Varner is trolling since he deleted that Periscope about 3 hrs after it happened. Ooops!

 

It sounds like Tasha using her religious righteousness loses her the mil, just like it did Coach 3.0 in SP. Religious hypocracy is always a bad thing in Survivor.

 

I don't know, he could have deleted it since he figured people would take notice and suspect he slipped.  I'm trying to keep an open mind on everything.  Especially since it's looking like a lot of my faves will be merge bound, so I don't want to get too excited.  Tasha making the final 3 does go along with what we know, and Jeff making the merge would also make sense since he was in a post game photo with Kimmi and Joe.  So we have a somewhat confirmed merge pool of Jeff, Joe, Jeremy, Keith, Spencer, Kelley Wentworth, Kimmi, and Tasha.  They merge at 13, so there's 5 more.  We know Terry leaves in the next couple of episodes, so that leaves Woo, Abi, Peih Gee, Kelly Wigles, Stephen, Andrew, Ciera, Monica, Kass.  It's seeming likely Stephen is a pre-merge boot, so we'll pull him out of the equation and say he goes pre-merge.  Andrew looked the same post game as he did when they started, so I'm thinking pre-merge for him (or extremely early merge-I just feel like there'd be some sort of change that would be noticeable).

Edited October 5, 2015 by LadyChatts

[anthonyd46]

I don't know, he could have deleted it since he figured people would take notice and suspect he slipped.  I'm trying to keep an open mind on everything.  Especially since it's looking like a lot of my faves will be merge bound, so I don't want to get too excited.  Tasha making the final 3 does go along with what we know, and Jeff making the merge would also make sense since he was in a post game photo with Kimmi and Joe.  So we have a somewhat confirmed merge pool of Jeff, Joe, Jeremy, Keith, Spencer, Kelley Wentworth, Kimmi, and Tasha.  They merge at 13, so there's 5 more.  We know Terry leaves in the next couple of episodes, so that leaves Woo, Abi, Peih Gee, Kelly Wigles, Stephen, Andrew, Ciera, Monica, Kass.  It's seeming likely Stephen is a pre-merge boot, so we'll pull him out of the equation and say he goes pre-merge.  Andrew looked the same post game as he did when they started, so I'm thinking pre-merge for him (or extremely early merge-I just feel like there'd be some sort of change that would be noticeable).

Monica I think is another pre-merge. Ciera I think as well. Obv Terry. Savage like you said. I'm not locked on Stephen yet. He knows spencer real well and maybe he can join up with Spencer and Kelly ?? I feel like if that tribe goes once to tribal council before the merge its Monica, but twice its also Stephen. I don't feel that Jeremy had massive weight loss, but enough to make it to merge. Kimmi with her crazy weight loss has to be at least merge.

[Jextella]

I don't know, he could have deleted it since he figured people would take notice and suspect he slipped.  I'm trying to keep an open mind on everything.  Especially since it's looking like a lot of my faves will be merge bound, so I don't want to get too excited.  Tasha making the final 3 does go along with what we know, and Jeff making the merge would also make sense since he was in a post game photo with Kimmi and Joe.  So we have a somewhat confirmed merge pool of Jeff, Joe, Jeremy, Keith, Spencer, Kelley Wentworth, Kimmi, and Tasha.  They merge at 13, so there's 5 more.  We know Terry leaves in the next couple of episodes, so that leaves Woo, Abi, Peih Gee, Kelly Wigles, Stephen, Andrew, Ciera, Monica, Kass.  It's seeming likely Stephen is a pre-merge boot, so we'll pull him out of the equation and say he goes pre-merge.  Andrew looked the same post game as he did when they started, so I'm thinking pre-merge for him (or extremely early merge-I just feel like there'd be some sort of change that would be noticeable).

For my entertainment dollar, I like this assessment but with one change - I'd like to see Kelly Wiggles at FTC. 

 

She and Spencer are the ones I'm rooting for right now and I'd be happy if either one won.  Jeremy, Joe are next but I don't think either has what it takes to win the game.  Next are Kimmi and Kelley just because they seem really nice and both are smart enough to go the distance.

 

I like a few others, e.g. Andrew and Abi but they were doomed from the beginning.

[anthonyd46]

For my entertainment dollar, I like this assessment but with one change - I'd like to see Kelly Wiggles at FTC. 

 

She and Spencer are the ones I'm rooting for right now and I'd be happy if either one won.  Jeremy, Joe are next but I don't think either has what it takes to win the game.  Next are Kimmi and Kelley just because they seem really nice and both are smart enough to go the distance.

 

I like a few others, e.g. Andrew and Abi but they were doomed from the beginning.

Kelly Wigles is a real wildcard. We don't really have anything that shows her going early nor do we have much that shows her lasting long either.

[LadyChatts]

I think Joe could make the merge, unless his tribe makes one last pre-merge trek to TC.  Then, I think he's a goner.  However, I also believe he will be an early merge boot unless he goes on an immunity run or gets really lucky with numbers.  Much like last season, he's too nice of a guy to want to be sitting with at the end.  Since Jeremy had the alpha alliance that also included Tasha, it makes me wonder if Tasha also turns on him but he manages to hold on by winning immunity's.  If Varner is right, Tasha obviously screws a lot of people (and I have a feeling her little speech she gave at the start of the season about her religion is going to somehow play a role and make her look like a big old hypocrite in the eyes of her Survivors).  There was a rumor that Tasha, PG, and Monica were seen post game at the airport together but I think that was proven to be false.

 

We know someone that is not Terry goes this week.  So far there's been nothing in promos besides showing the swap to give any clues as to who that might be.  I'm hoping press photos will give us a better hint, especially of the challenge.  Since Bayon outnumbers 2/3 tribes post swap, it is interesting to possibly be losing quite a few of them before the merge.  Kelly Wigles is an interesting one, and I really hope she does at least make the merge.  I think she's the only one where nothing came out post game about.  I know weight loss isn't a massive indicator, but Woo also looked unchanged, so I'm thinking he's also pre-merge.  Woo's kind of wishy washy and I don't think can really do anything in this game other than get in an alliance and follow their lead.

[anthonyd46]

I just have this feeling about Ciera going soon. I think its because she admitted on social media she was not feeling well during this episode plus just the facial expression she was giving in the challenge just made it look like she was not in a good mood. Plus she was vytas ally and he is already gone. Plus I just can't see the Bayon 4 (Keith, Kass, Joe, Ciera) turning on each other. There is no bad blood there. In regarding each other no one has said anything negative about Kass so far out of those 4. Joe we have heard multiple times merge and done. Keith just has this he's lasting a while vibe. They haven't talked negative about Ciera either. The conflict is between Jeremy/Stephen/Savage and none are on this tribe. They would have to target Kelley I think. I just can't see them targeting Joe unless they go to TC twice. 

[phlebas]

After my initial enthusiasm for Big Steve Fishbahhk's position after the coming swap, I'm now thinking he still goes soon.  I've caught up on his grumpiness after people were laughing at his first episode. I think he wouldn't be grumpy about that if he went deep and ended up playing a good game.

[Zuleikha]

If Varner is right, Tasha obviously screws a lot of people (and I have a feeling her little speech she gave at the start of the season about her religion is going to somehow play a role and make her look like a big old hypocrite in the eyes of her Survivors).

Jeff Probst also said Tasha's playing the devil's game this season, which normally I wouldn't place much stock in but it seems like there are a number of things adding up to Tasha doing a lot of successful backstabbing. Given that Varner's now flipped on two different alliances and loved Abi, it will be interesting to see if Tasha really does anything outside of par-for-the-course Survivor lying or if his dislike is because she successfully gets him out. 

[LadyChatts]

I have to think it is more than Tasha just flipping on him and causing his ouster-because Jeff is no better, as he's proved twice already, and I think he would (hopefully) respect that that is part of the game.

[anthonyd46]

I have to think it is more than Tasha just flipping on him and causing his ouster-because Jeff is no better, as he's proved twice already, and I think he would (hopefully) respect that that is part of the game.

I don't Jeff has to necessarily get voted out to have these comments I think his game just needs to get damaged in some way where he doesn't agree with her decisions. Plenty of people were trashing Dan last season, but he wasn't in the F3. 

[wonald]

Varner is just one person who is throwing shade at Tasha; there are others. Let's face it: she lost. Bad jury management.

[MKL122788]

Varner is just one person who is throwing shade at Tasha; there are others. Let's face it: she lost. Bad jury management.

 

There are different kinds of bad jury management, though. Ones you can forsee and avoid if you take proper steps, and ones that are simply bitter.

 

I can't remember a season full of returning players(or partially made of returning players) where the jury wasn't generally bitter towards players who were more strategic. I think it has to do with people kind of knowing each other before it starts, so any kind of game move feels more personal.

 

All-Stars jury was hilariously bitter. Fan vs. Favorites returning player portion of the jury was ridiculously bitter(I'm looking at you Ozzy...). Heroes vs. Villains jury, especially the heroes, were pretty bitter. Dawn got put on full blast in FvF2.

 

The truth is, there are bitter juries that are bitter for almost no reason except not carrying them to victory(Marquesas) and ones which seem a little more justified based on the antics of a finalist(Samoa).

 

I would never say Neleh had bad jury management, but she got burned by the jury anyway. We don't know what Tasha ends up doing, so we can't really say if it was bad jury management or not.

[loki567]

The one thing I call bullshit on is Varner claiming he'd liked Tasha before he got to know her. He came into the season calling her mean. You really going to act surprised if she blindsides you? 

[anthonyd46]

Here is one challenge it should look very familiar:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EYn0JR18T6g

[Jextella]

Hmmm.  Well, the post-show bitterness about Tasha could be a couple of things.  I am guessing the cast compares notes (regardless of whether or not they are allowed to) and know who the victor is in the end.  If she doesn't win, their doesn't seem much point to the bitterness.  That would be more like retribution to the Tasha haters....wouldn't it be?

 

Anyway, I think there are some who think it might be enough to get by with a social game.  Those who make it to the end will be those who understand that it's both social and strategic (and physical).  Jeff V has been thoroughly entertaining thus far but the guy has a little edge to him.  He might not know when to say when and he'll pay for it. 

[LadyChatts]

So assuming there aren't two challenges this episode that they aren't showing us in previews, there's still the challenge we saw Terry, Andrew, and Jeremy in that hasn't been aired yet (where they are carrying bags and running in the water).  We already knew Terry was making it through, and speculated Jeremy was.  I thought there might be a chance Andrew would end up going as the first boot of the newly formed tribes (possibly the victim of a thrown challenge).  I really thought Angkor was going to lose (granted, they still could-in a promo shot of Jeff before the season started, he looked unhappy and he was wearing the new gold buff at this challenge).  I think Ta'Keo has the best shot of winning this, between Kass, Joe, Terry, and Kelley Wentworth.  Assuming nothing goes horribly wrong or they don't throw it.  I'm thinking Bayon may be the ones losing this, even though I think Angkor looks the worst on paper.  But puzzles can certainly be a make or break.

 

Not thinking it looks good for Fishbach this week.  Monica I believe is the only other Bayon member with nothing to indicate her longevity in the game.  On Angkor, despite being outnumbered, Andrew and Tasha would appear to survive, if that challenge is not this episode, and it seems like Tasha is going far.  Given Jeff's issues with Tasha, I also don't think he's going anywhere, either, which would leave PG and Abi.  Ta'Keo, nothing on Ciera, Kass, or Joe past this vote, either, but I'm still thinking that tribe is going to be fine.  

Edited October 6, 2015 by LadyChatts

[anthonyd46]

So assuming there aren't two challenges this episode that they aren't showing us in previews, there's still the challenge we saw Terry, Andrew, and Jeremy in that hasn't been aired yet (where they are carrying bags and running in the water).  We already knew Terry was making it through, and speculated Jeremy was.  I thought there might be a chance Andrew would end up going as the first boot of the newly formed tribes (possibly the victim of a thrown challenge).  I really thought Angkor was going to lose (granted, they still could-in a promo shot of Jeff before the season started, he looked unhappy and he was wearing the new gold buff at this challenge).  I think Ta'Keo has the best shot of winning this, between Kass, Joe, Terry, and Kelley Wentworth.  Assuming nothing goes horribly wrong or they don't throw it.  I'm thinking Bayon may be the ones losing this, even though I think Angkor looks the worst on paper.  But puzzles can certainly be a make or break.

 

Not thinking it looks good for Fishbach this week.  Monica I believe is the only other Bayon member with nothing to indicate her longevity in the game.  On Angkor, despite being outnumbered, Andrew and Tasha would appear to survive, if that challenge is not this episode, and it seems like Tasha is going far.  Given Jeff's issues with Tasha, I also don't think he's going anywhere, either, which would leave PG and Abi.  Ta'Keo, nothing on Ciera, Kass, or Joe past this vote, either, but I'm still thinking that tribe is going to be fine.  

If we don't have the bag challenge this week then andrew is safe. If we don't have the crying tasha this week then woo and tasha are safe. That would leave Jeff Abi PG and I can't see any of those 3 going this week so if we have no crying + no bag challenge = No Angkor Tc if we have crying but no bag challenge then Woo really is the only boot candidate there. Bayon it has to be Monica or Stephen the other 4 Jeremy, Kimmi, Spencer, Kelly I think are going to last a little more. Ta Keo has the most wildcards for a boot Kass, Ciera, Joe, Kelley (as a target using an idol) can all get votes I think. Keith and Terry I think would be safe there, but the other 4 definitely could get votes. So still too many what ifs out to make a clear pick this week. 

[LadyChatts]

It would have to be Kelley, since we know Terry is removed from the game.  With the lack of press photos, could it be this episode that happens?  There's a challenge, but it could come after the challenge (I was never clear if he was removed on day 12 or if that's when word got out that he was no longer in it).  And that's assuming old Bayon stays intact and votes together.  I'd be really surprised if Joe goes, and we have that post game photo of Varner, Kimmi, and Joe.  It's flimsy to go on, but Kimmi hasn't begun to look as emaciated as she did in her own post game photos.  With what Varner has been saying about Tasha, I think something happens further down the road.  My guess is those 3 are making it to the merge.  So I'll say Kass or Ciera at Ta'Keo.  There's been a lot of focus on Stephen.  The ep description made me wonder if maybe Stephen was passing something along to the new Angkor tribe about Savage and his alliance.  Either Stephen gets redemption or he is Cesterninoed.  He posted a tweet on his twitter saying he aspired to play like Rob both times, and made a joke that he shouldn't have this time.  It's probably nothing, but maybe he is trying to soften the blow for himself.

Edited October 6, 2015 by LadyChatts

[LanceM]

The Angkor tribe is getting screwed.

 

http://my.xfinity.com/blogs/tv/2015/10/06/survivor-host-jeff-probst-breaks-down-the-tribe-expansion-idols-camps-and-more/

 

Holmes: Going from two tribes to three tribes has never been done before. Will the Angkor tribe get some kind of advantage or will they have to start camp from scratch?  
Probst: The Angkor tribe is starting from scratch.  Same supplies that were waiting for them on the beach on day one, but without any of the supplies they were able to get off the boat at the marooning.  It’s a MASSIVE set back.  All their energy now has to go to building a new shelter which could hurt them at the immunity challenges.
Holmes: Yikes, that’s harsh

[Oholibamah]

Devil's advocate: do we know for sure Terry is pulled from the game versus being released from sequester to return home?

[wonald]

Devil's advocate: do we know for sure Terry is pulled from the game versus being released from sequester to return home?

 

The cretin who first spoiled the Terry situation said that he was doing well in the game when he was pulled.

 

and LanceM - thx for posting the vid in the other thread :-)

[LadyChatts]

The Angkor tribe is getting screwed.

 

http://my.xfinity.com/blogs/tv/2015/10/06/survivor-host-jeff-probst-breaks-down-the-tribe-expansion-idols-camps-and-more/

 

Holmes: Going from two tribes to three tribes has never been done before. Will the Angkor tribe get some kind of advantage or will they have to start camp from scratch?  

Probst: The Angkor tribe is starting from scratch.  Same supplies that were waiting for them on the beach on day one, but without any of the supplies they were able to get off the boat at the marooning.  It’s a MASSIVE set back.  All their energy now has to go to building a new shelter which could hurt them at the immunity challenges.

Holmes: Yikes, that’s harsh

 

Given who is on Angkor, that's rough.  I had wondered if all tribes would have to at least start over with shelter building and making a fire, and that maybe the old members of Bayon/Ta'Keo would be allowed to take something with them.  However, I still won't count them out.  I do think if they go to TC, it is going to be a blindside between PG and Abi (since there's evidence-again, however flimsy-that Woo, Tasha, Jeff, and Andrew make it through).  However, it could always be the tribe that looks the strongest on paper, and they in turn are the ones losing.  I'm intrigued by the ep description and someone trying to get a message to another tribe-when I first read that, I had assumed it was someone reaching out to their former tribemates.  However, the way it is written, it could be someone trying to screw someone else (which is where the "we got a rat" part could come from).  I'm still going with a Bayon loss.  I think it'll come down to the puzzle, and a race between Bayon and Angkor with Ta'Keo already sitting on the sidelines waiting for it to be over.  

 

In the off chance Ta'Keo loses, then I think it'll be between Joe/Kass/Ciera.  Ciera may seem more non threatening, so unless she is still very sick and they know they won't be able to sit her out, I think Kass (the wild card) or Joe (the big threat) could get sent packing. 

Edited October 7, 2015 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

Stephen tweeted:

 

Stephen Fishbach ‏@stephenfishbach  

In Survivor Tocantins, I based my game off my hero, @robcesternino. In 2nd Chance I did the same. Whoops.

 

I pulled the tweet from Survivor Sucks thread on social media.

 

Is Stephen admitting that he is the third boot?

[wonald]

In another words, Sucks does not have any spoilers for E3. Stephen is not that stupid and Sucks has been indulging their hate-on for gamebot Stephen this week when it's probably Angkor or TKO which loses.

Edited October 7, 2015 by wonald

[ProfCrash]

They are not saying that he is the third out but posting his tweet. I doubt that Stephen would be that stupid but it is an interesting tweet

[wonald]

They are not saying that he is the third out but posting his tweet. I doubt that Stephen would be that stupid but it is an interesting tweet

 

Yes, they are. Take a look at the various prediction threads. It's all Stephen all the time.

[anthonyd46]

Yes, they are. Take a look at the various prediction threads. It's all Stephen all the time.

Let me put it this way. I put my opinion there that I felt Stephen could make the merge if he aligns with Spencer and Bayon only goes to TC once in the next 5 boots and boots Monica instead. I was greeted with comments of go kill yourself, die, and you are the worst poster on this board. Someone even sent me a paragraph long private message titled FU and said stephen was out this week and said all these obscenities about the kind of person I am for not agreeing on Stephen being out this week (even though we have no proof)  including multiple swear words. So what you can conclude from that is they are Stephen or bust this week. I am not I don't have enough proof. 

[ProfCrash]

hehehehe

 

There is a reason I don't post there.

 

They think it is Stephen. I just found the tweet interesting

[cooksdelight]

Who is Jim Early, anybody? I just read that he's blocking various people on Facebook if they are fans of Varner. And Varner responded to put him in contact with Tasha's church family, that they seem to like mean people. ???

[Skeeter22]

Jim Early is an internet troll who spoiled several seasons of Survivor through his friendship with Russell Hantz.

[wonald]

Who is Jim Early, anybody? I just read that he's blocking various people on Facebook if they are fans of Varner. And Varner responded to put him in contact with Tasha's church family, that they seem to like mean people. ???

 

Varner linked to a long and entertaining post that explains the whole history of Missyrae on twitter. Didja not see the link?

[ProfCrash]

I don't have a twitter account, I only see what others post. So link please

[cooksdelight]

I don't do Twitter either.

[LadyChatts]

I saw that on Varner's twitter, and was curious what it meant.  Really curious what it is that Tasha did that pissed Varner off so bad.  

 

In regards to Stephen, I know he hasn't been happy with his portrayl or the game he's been playing (or lack of, I should say).  While I still won't rule out some sort of massive redemption where he suddenly is in a power position, I'm thinking now it ain't happening for him.  I don't believe Stephen is stupid enough to spoil his own boot but at the same time, I can totally see him doing that.  Make fun of himself before anyone else ribs him for being out so early, given his previous placement, gameplay, and place in the Survivor community.  This is something from Jeff about the swap:

 

http://my.xfinity.com/blogs/tv/2015/10/06/survivor-host-jeff-probst-breaks-down-the-tribe-expansion-idols-camps-and-more/

Gordon Holmes: Hearing “Drop Your Buffs” is either someone’s biggest fear or their greatest wish. Nobody is indifferent.
Jeff Probst: You’re absolutely right.  Three of the most powerful words in the game and it all comes down to luck.  This is definitely a shot to the gut for a couple of people who end up on a tribe that is certainly at least perceived as weaker.  For another Survivor this is the change they were hoping for as it gets them out of a situation in which they felt on the outside.  And for one other…it’s more of the same.  From one bottom to another.   It changed up the game quite a bit.  You can NEVER get comfortable on “Survivor.”  Never.

 

 

The two people who appeared to be on the bottom of their respective tribes were Stephen and Spencer.  We didn't see a whole lot of tribe dynamics at Bayon, other than the alphas, but I don't know that Jeff would be talking about someone who has been in the background so far.

 

There's a lot more question marks going into tonight's boot, and even some people speculated to do well based on weight loss I'm starting to question (thinking Jeremy and Keith).  However, if Bayon loses, I'm sticking with Stephen (Monica's only offense so far is that she's forgettable), Angkor PG or Abi, Ta'Keo Ciera or Kass.

 

Angkor looks to be the weakest, but underdogs can always prevail.  If this is the episode where we see Tasha crying, I think there's a chance Woo could get it.  I believe it is possible Tasha may cry over losing a challenge, since she and Andrew are outnumbered.  But, given what we are hearing about Tasha, plus she is one of the ones with the more noticeable weight loss, I think she and Varner are safe for the long haul, and we know Andrew at least makes it to the bag water challenge.  If this isn't the Tasha crying ep, then Woo is safe.

 

Ta'Keo has the most question marks for me.  We know Terry is safe until he is pulled/bag challenge (and if this was his game removable ep, I would think that might be hyped a little more in the promos).  But considering the lack of press photos and actual promos this week, maybe CBS is training new webmonkeys who won't give stuff away so easily.  Kelley was one of the 3 who looked the most noticeable in regards to her weight loss, and she has her idol.  I don't believe she would take the risk of being voted off.  Keith is Keith.  There was that post game photo of Jeff/Kimmi/Joe, which would probably mean Joe is safe.  If Ciera is still sick she could be seen as a liability, and Kass is Kass.  

 

Bayon, again, it would have to be Stephen or Monica since there's at least something showing the others make it beyond this vote.  Jeff said that Kelly Wigles had a story, and we've barely seen anything of her or this story, so I believe she's safe, even though she is another question mark for me.  If Stephen is the one getting a message to the enemy, then I think he'll be done.  If Spencer knows Bayon is voting for Stephen, I don't even think he would try and hatch a plan otherwise to try and flip it, given that he was almost gone in episode 2.  We'll see if he's learned.

 

If there are two challenges this episode, and one of them is the bag water challenge (even though there isn't evidence that is taking place), then it could be Savage who gets the boot.  Since Jeff's tagline this season is about history repeating itself and making the same mistakes, Stephen may be the new Skinny Ryan/Lill who lets Angkor in on Savage's alpha alliance and gets them to vote him off.

Edited October 7, 2015 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

Tasha is suppose to be alligned with the Alpha Males. I am not sure that we have seen much of the other four women on Bayon. I know that Monica and Cierra are there. Kimmi has been shown laughing and Kass had a talking head trying to show emotional awareness. It would be hard to say that they are on the outside because we have not heard anything from them. So I think Stephen has to be the outsider frm Bayon.

 

I think you could say Spencer and Abi are on the outside over at Ta Koe. Spencer and Abi got four votes at different tribals. I doubt that Abi is going to feel that ocmfortable in the Woo, Terry, Jeff, Kelly alliance. She knows they voted for her in the first vote, well not Jeff, and I think she knows she is annoying. Then again, she is delusional so she might not be fully aware that she is five in that group and might actually be lower then that.

 

I suspect that Stephen is the one in trouble because he has fewer connections to folks and he started the game sick. We have not seen him developing ties with anyone on his tribe. Heck, even Kimmi realized he was idol hunting on day one. Spencer is good for challenges, has social ties with more folks and gets along with most of his tribe even if they saw him as a threat.

[wonald]

I don't have a twitter account, I only see what others post. So link please

 

 

I don't do Twitter either.

 

 

 

here it is.

warning: it's quite snarky but detailed.

 

It's also old so to add up to date info, Varner used to be a member of Early's FB group until he realized - oh noes! spoilers! - so he quit the group and disparged Early. Which got Early's dander up. Hence the current feud.

 

http://survivorsucks.com/topic/97930#.VhLn5vlViko

Edited October 7, 2015 by wonald

[blackwing]

Not sure what to make of any of these tweets.  I enjoy reading all of the evidence but I'm not sure if any of them are concrete spoilers other than Terry leaving.  Didn't there used to be a confidentiality clause?  Obviously they can't reveal who wins or how far they get, but didn't that rule extend to all social media?

 

I would not at all be surprised if Varner and Stephen are trolling us and purposely releasing this information in an "oops, I didn't mean to say that" kind of way.  And having it be fake.  Varner in particular seems like he relishes attention and would love to screw with people.

[anthonyd46]

Good post Ladychatts. I agree there is no slam dunk pick this week. It all depends on the bag challenge for me. If we see the bag challenge or Tasha crying or both it opens up the boot a lot more.

[LadyChatts]

Oh, I totally wouldn't rule out Varner and Stephen trolling us (Varner especially).  He was the one blasting other castaways for telling people what had happened, and then those people leaking it out.  Which, as another poster pointed out, Jeff has a lot of room to talk considering he spoiled the first AS season out of bitterness (and if he isn't trolling, potentially spoiling this season).  I do take what goes on on SM with a grain of salt, since it could be nothing, it could be something petty, or they are trolling us.  Some castaways are more quiet on SM this season than they were in their respective seasons I've noticed.

 

anthonyd46, completely agree.  I had wondered if the lack of press photos was because there was something happening this episode that had already gotten out (like the bag challenge).  If it was the case, it would take the boot talk in a different direction most likely.  Usually when the tribe swap happens, they go to two separate challenges.  But that's when 3 become 2, and since this is 2 become 3, I don't know if they will be able to fit it in.  We have to do the tribe swap, the IC, TC, and see the new tribe dynamics play out in the short amount of time the show airs.  The separate RC could be right after the new tribes are revealed.  Jeff's "shot to the gut" remark I think could apply to Andrew and Tasha, and he's emphasized how this is a major setback to some people's game, and I still think he was referring to Andrew.  However, the ep description mentions a castaway being put in jeopardy with their tribe for getting a message to another tribe; it doesn't imply that the person is in danger of getting voted off this episode, but may make them seem untrustworthy down the road.  Abi could also be the person Jeff was talking about going from one bottom to another.  I guess it will depend how the tribes vote, too.  Angkor may want to keep Andrew for strength.  

 

Woo probably thinks he's solid with his old tribe, even though he got blindsided the first week, and the only reason he wasn't on the outs this past week was because of Shirin's big mouth and Varner making the move to flip back.  So I could see him voting along Ta'Keo lines.  It would come down to Varner, PG, and Abi.

[anthonyd46]

Just heard a radio ad it was like :

 

Drop your buffs ! Survivor tonight a change in the tribes done in a way that will blow you away. Tune in tonight 8/7c. Im guessing they are just referring to the fact Angkor will have to start from scratch. 

[LadyChatts]

I was just checking Survivor Fever for their predictions.  Even though they pretty much use the same info we have, they must be as confused about tonight as we are-they have Stephen as the boot, but Bayon winning the RC/IC.  And Stephen stays on Bayon (yes, they probably just forgot to edit out Bayon in that line since they won the last two weeks, but it was still kind of funny to see since tonight's boot is sort of a mystery).  I won't be surprised if it is Stephen, but with so many possibilities, it wouldn't really be a shocker if it isn't.  If everything adds up the way it is supposed to, the pool to be voted off really isn't that large (Ciera, Stephen, Monica, Abi).  But throwing in some added curve could add quite a few to that pile.

Edited October 7, 2015 by LadyChatts

[anthonyd46]

I was just checking Survivor Fever for their predictions.  Even though they pretty much use the same info we have, they must be as confused about tonight as we are-they have Stephen as the boot, but Bayon winning the RC/IC.  And Stephen stays on Bayon (yes, they probably just forgot to edit out Bayon in that line since they won the last two weeks, but it was still kind of funny to see since tonight's boot is sort of a mystery).  I won't be surprised if it is Stephen, but with so many possibilities, it wouldn't really be a shocker if it isn't.  If everything adds up the way it is supposed to, the pool to be voted off really isn't that large (Ciera, Stephen, Monica, Abi).  But throwing in some added curve could add quite a few to that pile.

Well for the first time in a few months we really have no idea on the boot they kept this one pretty good secret I think. If the bag challenge and the crying shows though the door opens widely. Almost time.

[wonald]

IIRC, Survivor Fever is an active member of Sucks. Of course, they are gonna say Stephen when ALL of Sucks is saying it's Stephen. I hope someone with an uterus goes home so that I can enjoy an epic Sucks meltdown.

[LadyChatts]

As long as that uterus is named Monica-she bores me, as does Ciera, but since I can't lose both, I'll go for the one I can't ever remember.

[anthonyd46]

IIRC, Survivor Fever is an active member of Sucks. Of course, they are gonna say Stephen when ALL of Sucks is saying it's Stephen. I hope someone with an uterus goes home so that I can enjoy an epic Sucks meltdown.

Yes survivor fever provides the press images to sucks. Im hoping for a great episode with lack of press images.