S25: Previews & Speculation

[Whimsy]

Many viewers purposely choose not to watch the previews at the end of the episode. Please do not mention previews in the episode threads, but rather you can bring those discussions here. Since they aren't exactly spoilers, let's keep this thread spoiler free.

Thanks and happy posting!

[Lantern7]

Is it weird that I looked at Michael or Scott's bruised ankle and immediately thought of Curt Schilling's bloody sock from 2004? Damn, has it really been ten years since the Red Sox came from 0-3 to beat the Yankees? Anyway, I don't know how bad of an injury it is just by looking at it, but it does look nasty.

 

Aside from the ankle, there's not much to go on in terms of potential spoilers. In the commercial I found online, I did get a chuckle out of the Shetland ponies giving Racers shit, to the point where Jim's all, "Come on, Satan." Anybody else think that donkeys are indigenous to the area, but the show didn't want to use them two seasons in a row?

[cooksdelight]

It looks like a really, really bad sprain. Possibly torn ligament. He won't be able to run anywhere, I don't think.

I guess they thought the ponies would be cuter. But they are just as stubborn as donkeys. Take it from someone who tried to ride one as a kid.

[auntlada]

My grandfather had a Shetland pony who was very gentle and good to ride, but also stubborn. She would only go faster than a walk if someone ran in front of her. He had another that was mean and had to be kept away from all the other horses because he'd bite and kick anyone and anything. He also had border collies and was a descendant of the Gunns in Caithness. He would have loved to see this episode.

[Jersey Guy 87]

 

Is it weird that I looked at Michael or Scott's bruised ankle and immediately thought of Curt Schilling's bloody sock from 2004? Damn, has it really been ten years since the Red Sox came from 0-3 to beat the Yankees? Anyway, I don't know how bad of an injury it is just by looking at it, but it does look nasty.

 

I immediately got flashbacks to racer who tore his Achilles tendon, had to leave the race and returned for an all-star season.  Except, instead of cancer it's Boston Strong.

[Lamb18]

I saw oxen in the opening--I wonder if there's a My Ox Is Broken challenge coming up.

[jjj]

That ankle was bad for only a few hours later -- it would have been so much worse by the time they got to the Detour.

 

So, the preview -- was that at the Pitstop of the next leg?   I couldn't tell, but it sounded like Phil was there.  Makes me think it is a TBC set of legs. 

[Lantern7]

You know what I'd like to see? A team get U-Turned and not getting that pissy about it. I was thinking about that because Misti & Jim are obviously the alpha team this season, and I'd be curious to see what would happen if they got targeted.

 

I don't know what to make of Nici's outburst in next week's episode. I think Phil has a better handle of crazy/temperamental/angry than Probst ever will.

[cooksdelight]

Phil is more compassionate. And wants to help. Jeff doesn't catch on as quick, and when he does, he's almost condescending... as if... "Oh God, you're ruining my master plan of having you around until at least final 5 to keep things stirred up!"

[etagloh]

 

So, the preview -- was that at the Pitstop of the next leg?   I couldn't tell, but it sounded like Phil was there.

 

The framing is set up the way we usually see teams at the Pit Stop, with the camera between the teams and Phil, so I think so. Perhaps it's a NEL where they're a distant last (we get to see tasks happening during the day, and they're shown at night) and Nici just wants it to be over? But it'd be strange to tip that off in the preview.

[jjj]

Thanks, etagloh -- I thought it had to be the Pit Stop (or the start of a To Be Continued Leg) or the departure from the current stop, but Phil only sends off the first team, and sometimes not even the first team.  Yes, it seemed like an odd scene to put in the previews! 

[djlynch]

My other thought about the racers encountering Phil is that it's been a looooong time since Phil came out to the course to eliminate a team that was stuck on a challenge after everyone else had checked in, but could that be the source of all of the frustration while he's there?

[Rusun]

Remember the almighty racer - and hockey Olympian - Meaghan Mikkelson(-Reid) from TAR Canada Season 2?

 

 

Her fellow Dane Ida Davidsen, Queen of the Open-Faced Sandwich, is serving up some of that same no-nonsense Nordic sassiness to Mrs. Doc. Raman!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJhWYkJy83k

[Lantern7]

I was just going to post that. I can't believe we're getting teasers four days in advance. It should be interesting to see how the Dentists deal with adversity. It'll be as eyebrow-popping as Nici's meltdown.

[Rusun]

One of the "Press Release" pictures from CBS Express confirms that there will be a TAR17 Switchback:

 

 

The Geography Identification task from Ghana has been reborn as another Route Info Marker. Taking possible omitted words into account and marking them off with parentheses, the caption under the map reads, "Name the capit(als of [the]) Scandinavia[n countries/nations]."

 

Curiously, the Swedish title next to the flag with race colors says, "Din nästa ledtr(åd)", which literally means, "Your next hint/clue", but is grammatically inaccurate in addressing just one racer - rather than both teammates, as well as the contestants as a whole - and should have said, "Er nästa ledtråd".

 

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Øresund, the Bikers fudge their Detour, no pun intended:

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=YDMSl8kD-nk http://youtube.com/watch?v=ZIxd9xH5jhc

 

 

[SnideAsides]

Sounds fun, but it's not a Switchback if (as it appears) it's a completely different task that just happens to look similar. Otherwise every "count this large number of local doodads" and "build this big local doodad from its component doos and dads" would be a Switchback.

[Rusun]

It's a gross exaggeration to claim that naming capital cities is a "completely different task" from identifying countries.

 

Tasks that involve tallying huge quantities of goods/products/commodities/etc. as well as assembling many constituent parts into one item appear on almost all seasons - often both within the same one - but the African Geography Exam and the Scandinavian Capital Switchback are the only two non-Finale tasks of their kind, the sole other iterations being the map-based Memory Challenges of TAR19's and TAR22's last leg(s).

[Lantern7]

Anybody else think the Dentists will have to use the Amazing Save next week? With a Double-U Turn in effect, it looks likely they'll have to do both Detour options, especially if they're in the back of the pack. Also, I am currently with Shelley in her fight versus Keith, mainly because Keith is a forgettable Survivor contestant. I reserve the right to change my mind, but I heard he and Whitney are still pissed off at Cochran for flipping on them, so to heck with them both.

[Lantern7]

Looks like I was wrong about the Dentists getting hosed this week. Right now, I'm thrilled milking animals will be a task for next week's episode. I'm also hoping that Brooke is tethered to the bridge. For a complainy-pants like her, that has to be a nightmare.

[cooksdelight]

I'm telling ya, if they have helmet cams on that bridge and anyone looks down, I'm a goner. I am terrified of heights.

[selkie]

Did I catch a glimpse of a non-broken ox for next episode?

[Lantern7]

Here are the average placements after six legs:

 

3.00 Kym/Alli

3.17 Adam/Bethany

3.17 Misti/Jim

4.50 Tim/Te Jay

4.83 Brooke/Robbie

6.00 Amy/Maya

 

To me, we have a field of racers and "race-nots,' for lack of a better term. I think it would take a minor miracle for one of the three trailing teams to finish the Race. Right now, I'm resigned to a Cyclists/Dentists/Surfers finale, and I'm okay with it . . . mainly because there's no clear-cut favorite amongst those three. The Cyclists are determined, the Dentists have the Save, and the Surfers make John Vito & Jill look like Teri & Ian with their mellowness. And judging from the recaps at Previously, I'd say this is a kick-ass season. Here's hoping we get another one right away.

[cooksdelight]

Given that I think the final will involve all the various animals at each pit stop (either live or in costume) which pair has the best attention to detail? That's what might cripple a strong physical team if they can't remember the little things.

[peachmangosteen]

I would say that that is Jim/Misty's biggest problem, so if you're right, I bet it costs them the win.

[auntlada]

Did I catch a glimpse of a non-broken ox for next episode?

 

Yes, but I'm hoping for a broken one. Or at least someone who knows enough to pull out the line.

Edited November 3, 2014 by auntlada

[Rusun]

A reminder after a fortnight hiatus of the newest country appearance in the last two-and-a-half years:

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=FhD4kmF11wI

 

TAR15's beer-carrying Detour in Prague ("Lager") reborn ten seasons later as a wine-carrying Route Info Task in Valletta!

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=3CTY6tmEmjc

 

Hints of a new rivalry?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lantern7]

Here are the average placements after eight legs:

 

2.75 Misti/Jim

2.88 Kym/Alli

3.13 Adam/Bethany

4.75 Brooke/Robbie

4.88 Tim/Te Jay

5.38 Amy/Maya

 

Once again . . . huge gap between the lead teams and the also-rans. I think it would take a minor miracle for the Wrestlers or Scientists to even sniff third place, let alone win the game. Between the Double-U Turn and the Surfers risking "suicide," anything is possible.

 

Question about the Scientists' painful-looking massage: when was the last time anybody on TAR got pixelated/blurred? I know it's expected on Survivor, but I think it's rare for TAR to break that out.

[Lingo]

I think there's a very big possibility of one of the "Race-Nots" teams (the Wrestlers probably) reaching the Final 3 due to the U-Turning of another team (the Cyclists probably). That's how the Cowboys were eliminated in their last 2 races, after all.

 

[cooksdelight]

I got the impression that Bethany and Adam U-turn someone, and think it will be very hard to have to deal with the fallout. Possibly the cyclists, since they have chosen to run their own game away from the others, and are doing very well.

[Lingo]

I got the impression that Bethany and Adam U-turn someone, and think it will be very hard to have to deal with the fallout. Possibly the cyclists, since they have chosen to run their own game away from the others, and are doing very well.

 

This is the Previews thread, so we can mention what's visible in the Previews, right?  I disagree with you because in the clip for next episode, you can see that Adam and Bethany are

holding a clue to a Fast Forward, which if they complete it will make it unlikely they'll even encounter the U-Turn.  But gong for a FF can be risky, especially if another team is also going for it.

So it's probably that risk that A&B are talking about, and not the U-Turn.

[Lantern7]

Here's a preview of the new episode. Basically the same stuff as in the teaser from Friday, but with the Cyclists surfing. Which kind of makes sense, since I vaguely remember Bethany trying to ride a bike.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVtszpK4U0Y&list=UUPY3wSqgeErW9AI5qPLcLUA&spfreload=10

[Lantern7]

Here are the average placements after nine legs:

 

2.78 Misti/Jim (third)

2.89 Adam/Bethany (first)

3.11 Kym/Alli (eliminated)

4.11 Brooke/Robbie (second)

5.22 Amy/Maya (fourth)

 

I know . . . I need a better metric to judge teams. The closest thing I can think of is counting how many times a team is showcased being in trouble heading into a commercial. The more times a team is shown in that situation, the weaker it can be perceived. Problem is, that's not measured on Wikipedia. Meanwhile, I got a handy leaderboard and basic division to judge teams.

 

I'm putting the odds of anybody channeling Colin next week at 25-1. I don't think anybody will have trouble handling an ox, and I can't see anybody (even Jim, a distant descendant of Colin) breaking down and openly cursing. Either way, kudos to Bert and/or Elise for bringing back memories of a crazy moment like that.

[Lingo]

It's worthwhile to mention that Adam and Bethany got two of their wins by skipping tasks (via Express Pass and FF), while Jim and Misti won all of theirs the hard way.

 

Back when I had a spreadsheet of all the races, I would rank them by calculating something like the average percentage of teams they would beat to the mat, which makes a 2nd-place win on Leg 1 worth a lot more than making 2nd on Leg 12.  But it rarely made much of a difference.

[Lantern7]

It's worthwhile to mention that Adam and Bethany got two of their wins by skipping tasks (via Express Pass and FF), while Jim and Misti won all of theirs the hard way.

True, Lingo, but the Surfers got their Express Pass by going (a little) out of their way in the second leg. Also, the Dentists were bailed out of a last place finish by a non-elimination leg. I see both teams being about equal in terms of skill and luck, and they compliment each other's styles (Dentists : Aggressive :: Surfers : Mellow)

 

Thinking about it . . . what about averaging the times teams leave in relation to the leaders? Problem is, I don't think the show likes showing that minutia anymore.

 

ETA: I'm beginning to think that if there's a memory-based final task, it'll be animal-themed. That would explain the guy in the crab suit at the Detour.

[Lingo]

But that wouldn't be fair, because only one team even saw the Crab-man. (Yes, my name is Earl!)

[cooksdelight]

I thought a speculation thread would be the best place to discuss whether or not the surfers were shown favoritism.

There have been tasks throughout the race that have favored one team over another. Two cycling tasks (the tannery and the cake), several strength tasks (the wrestlers, Jim), attention to detail (you'd think the dentists, but...) and it's that way every season. The roadblocks and detours are set up months in advance with local officials, hiring people to participate and facilities for the tasks. This isn't changed on a whim because a "favored" team is still in the race at the end. For all production knew, Betheny could have failed miserably at any road block that required two hands.

This is a game show with money and prizes given out, there is no way they would risk CBS axing them if they did something as foolish as to change up pre-determined tasks in order to help a favored team get ahead.

[cooksdelight]

I found documentation which explains why a lot of reality shows which involve knowledge, skill or chance do indeed fall under the Game Show law, section 509:

 

 

 

III. REALITY TELEVISION PROGRAMS AS CONTESTS
The prohibitions of section 509 presumptively apply to a number of reality programs. First, the statute covers televised contests, and a majority of reality television shows structure and bill themselves as contests. The shows have rules, winners, contestants, elimination methods, standards of judging, and prizes.133 Even the contestants themselves deem the programs in which they participate to be games, and speak of winning. For example, Survivor’s rules describe it as “a contest of elimination, with the decision of the elimination determined by the vote of the contestants.”134 Survivor’s castaways compete in “challenges,” vote to expel each other,135 and, throughout the competition, repeatedly refer to “playing the game.” The Amazing Race, as its name designates, is a race; the prototypical contest. Teams must comply with rules to avoid disqualification and be the first to cross the finish line. On American Idol and Dancing with the Stars, contestants perform to garner votes from the viewing public or points from judges. Project Runway has extensive rules regarding what materials, tools, and books contestants can possess, and has weekly challenges and winners. Accordingly, many reality television contest programs are “contests” within the meaning of section 509.
Second, the contests encompassed by section 509 must be characterized by either a predominance of chance or a predominance of intellectual skill or knowledge. Although no reality television program is based predominantly on chance, most incorporate some measure of intellectual skill or knowledge.

 

http://cardozoaelj.com/wp-content/uploads/Journal%20Issues/Volume%2025/Issue%201/Podlas.pdf

[Netfoot]

This is a game show with money and prizes given out, there is no way they would risk CBS axing them if they did something as foolish as to change up pre-determined tasks in order to help a favored team get ahead.

 

We've had stunt-cast production "favourites" go out early before, with no apparent effort made to save them. 

[cooksdelight]

I know, it happens all the time. I think I can safely speculate with a good degree of accuracy that the reality competition shows come under the same scrutiny that the section 509 law was designed for. To keep the competition honest and above board.

[Lingo]

Thanks for finding that, cooksdelight, though it appears that your pdf is written by someone merely arguing that 509 should apply.  I think Mark Burnett has always argued that these laws don't apply to Survivor or his other reality shows.  I don't think we can really ever be sure unless a case is ever brought to trial and a judge makes a ruling one way or another.

 

Prior to this, I'd seen nothing but bare assertions that this should be the case with no evidence to back it up.  Recently I'd seen someone state (can't remember where) that they believed that reality shows actually fall under the same laws as professional wrestling (!), which means that they can basically do anything they want.  Again, no evidence.

[cooksdelight]

I don't think we can really ever be sure unless a case is ever brought to trial and a judge makes a ruling one way or another.

Which is exactly what happened. Burnett, not being from the U.S., thought he could manipulate his new show, Survivor. Stacey, an attorney who was on season one, sued for this very reason. The case was settled out of court, as I am sure Burnett didn't want the info getting out as to what really happened. I know people who have been on the show and they tell me it's very closely monitored by camera crew, production crew, etc., to ensure that everyone follows the rules. And the huge contract they have to sign for non-disclosure of any specifics.

Survivor was the ground-breaker for this issue, and Stacey's lawsuit pretty much set the standard for all competitive reality shows going forward. Which is not to say that there are some producers out there who don't care and will break the law. But if caught, it would end their careers, probably.

It's ironic that the competitive reality shows are more close to reality than the staged, scriped non-competitive shows like some produced by Bravo, MTV or TLC.

[Wax Lion]

Which is exactly what happened. Burnett, not being from the U.S., thought he could manipulate his new show, Survivor. Stacey, an attorney who was on season one, sued for this very reason. The case was settled out of court, as I am sure Burnett didn't want the info getting out as to what really happened. I know people who have been on the show and they tell me it's very closely monitored by camera crew, production crew, etc., to ensure that everyone follows the rules. And the huge contract they have to sign for non-disclosure of any specifics.

 

Wow. So what happened with the Our Little Geniuses fiasco? Not bringing it up as a counter argument, it just sounds like Burnett might have forgotten his lessons to the point that his show went from getting a high-profile debut to getting pulled without airing.

[cooksdelight]

Burnett is arrogant to the point he often thinks he can pull one over on people and they won't notice. For that particular game/quiz show, it sounds like someone talked about the kids getting questions in advance and he pulled the plug before it could become a full-blown scandal.

The FCC has opened an investigation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/20/business/media/20genius.html?_r=0

[Lingo]

Again, I'm no lawyer, but the fact that the case was settled out of court means that the judge did not rule on the case, so I think the legal question is still up in the air.  And I thought that Burnett was still asserting that those rules don't apply to his shows even after the lawsuit.

[peachmangosteen]

Yea, I just don't think we have a clear answer on whether or not competitive reality shows fall under the game show rules or not. And I personally think there's some good evidence (particularly with regards to Big Brother) that they actually don't have to follow those rules.

[Kel Varnsen]

I know, it happens all the time. I think I can safely speculate with a good degree of accuracy that the reality competition shows come under the same scrutiny that the section 509 law was designed for. To keep the competition honest and above board.

I am not sure we can say either way. Here is a law journal article from Linda Holmes (the former Race recapper known as Miss Alli) who says that it is not that clear cut. Her argument seems to be that 1) reality shows could be considered entertainment shows, not game shows and 2) there are so many variables with respect to who wins a reality show that unless there was a total fix of an entire season it would be hard to apply any current laws. Basically any kind of helping could be looked at as creating drama, since most helping you see isn't the kind of thing that would give someone a guaranteed win.

 

I mean in relation to this show, even if the surfing challenge was set up because they had surfers, if there was any kind of legal challenge all the production team would have to do is show the video of Adam wiping out and say that this challenge was obviously designed to create drama and entertainment not to give one team an easy win. Because him falling shows it is not the show handing him a first place. 

 

Hell look at survivor. When Boston Rob won, CBS basically handed him the victory, by surrounding him with idiots and designing the season to his strengths. But even then there was still a possibility that he might not win. 

[NutMeg]

Survivor was the ground-breaker for this issue, and Stacey's lawsuit pretty much set the standard for all competitive reality shows going forward. 

Sorry if this is off topic, but what was that lawsuit about and how did it concude? 

[Rusun]

An impoverished country as the penultimate destination hasn't happened since the single-digit seasons (the first Vietnam visit in TAR3, the first and formerly only Philippines visit in TAR5, and the sole Jamaica - and Caribbean until this season - visit in TAR7):

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftydus0jsg8

[Jac]

An impoverished country as the penultimate destination hasn't happened since the single-digit seasons (the first Vietnam visit in TAR3, the first and formerly only Philippines visit in TAR5, and the sole Jamaica - and Caribbean until this season - visit in TAR7):

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftydus0jsg8

 

I don't think impoverished is the right word to describe either The Philippines or Vietnam, developing to be sure but not impoverished, Vietnam in particular is developing fast and has some fairly decent infrastructure in the big cities. I'm not as familiar with The Philippines but it is no where near as undeveloped as parts of Africa.

[Lantern7]

Anybody else figure that the next leg is non-elimination? That probably goes without saying, but the other option -- extended leg -- is also feasible. And how funny would it be if Misti & Jim couldn't figure out their ox, and they wound up finishing last, just like Colin & Christie twenty seasons ago?