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Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?


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On ‎1‎/‎27‎/‎2017 at 3:24 AM, KAOS Agent said:

This is a better list of what's up with all the networks and new pilots/series ordered. ABC has the most new shows in development. Ten of them are dramas.

Considering the drama slate this season, it's not a surprise.

17 hours ago, jjjmoss said:

Based on last season's spring vs. fall, the spring would average 0.78 ranging from 0.7 to 0.9. But things aren't always at an equally steady decline.

That seems likely, a 0.1/0.2 decline is possible.

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This article isn't specifically about this show, but it gives a little history of how that 18-49 demographic became the ruler of television. In short, it's ABC's fault. They had fewer affiliates than CBS and therefore lower ratings, and they wanted to capitalize on the popularity of American Bandstand among younger viewers, so they came up with that youth demographic (but old enough to drive cars) as a way of making their ratings look better to advertisers. And now we all suffer.

In other news, I noticed a week or so ago that TV Line considered Once a sure bet for renewal. For whatever that's worth.

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9 minutes ago, Shanna Marie said:

In other news, I noticed a week or so ago that TV Line considered Once a sure bet for renewal. For whatever that's worth.

I have a fairly accurate "gut feeling" when it comes to renewals and cancellations, and it definitely feels like OUAT has one more season left in it. I have absolutely zero facts or evidence to back this up, but there you go...

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Cancellation Bear said it would go either way. I guess 'll see.

I can't believe it's less than a month to the Spring premiere already. We'll have new things to complain about soon enough. ;)

Edited by KingOfHearts
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LMAO Quantico is an embarrassment as is SHIELD but oh those are getting renewed. Get out of here.

In other news JMO had an interview at SCAD where she said she absolutely wants a S7 and she hopes for it. It's in the SCAD official newspaper.

Plus Eddy said that "we are all" ready for S7, aka everyone on the stage which was the creators and Colin/JMO the two people that retweeted the article about hopes for a S7.

Just saying.

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I've been watching the ratings for Quantico and AoS specifically, and the move for Quantico has done absolutely nothing to help it. But it's not like they can blame Once for it anymore, if they did that before. They gave them the Bachelor. 

Edited by YaddaYadda
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On 1/24/2017 at 4:53 PM, Hookian said:

HAHAHAH IT DROPPED IN THE FINALS .1

And you want to tell me Quantico is a guaranteed renewal? Get out of here with that.

 

On 1/25/2017 at 8:00 PM, Hookian said:

Yep AOS is so getting renewed huh, oh and Quantico with it's almost even with Sunday ratings. LBR by the time Quantico is on it's 3rd episode it'll be back at if not worse then it was on Sundays.

Quantico is making crazy money for the studio with international sales, and AoS was already essentially paid for in already-produced movies and it's Marvel.

The Middle and the TGIT3 have been officially renewed, talks are on-going for renewal of the other nine currently-airing comedies, Designated Survivor, Quantico, and AoS, and still not a peep about Once.  

Believe me or not, couldn't care less, but literally not one word is being said about renewing Once.  Whereas the others now renewed and still in talks started having discussions at the beginning of the calendar year.

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I am not doubting the international sales angle for Quantico, but for all its problems and its decline, Once is like Shakespeare compared to Quantico (unless it has improved vastly, I bailed half way through season 1).  I will be really irritated if Once is cancelled and Quantico survives.

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Once also hasn't returned to the schedule like those other shows have and therefore there's no discussion of renewal until it does. From the Hollywood Reporter story about TGIT getting renewed:

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The fate of fellow Rhimes-produced drama The Catch has not yet been announced as the series will not premiere until Murder ends its run this season.

 

So if they're doing that for The Catch, they're likely doing it for Once as well. And we still don't know how Time After Time will fare. If any of the shows that haven't returned yet do return and do better than the ones listed, those renewal discussions for Quantico and AoS will only be discussions.

Also, from Cancel Bear with a chart of all the ratings that clearly shows that Quantico and AoS are floundering:

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In its fall run on Sundays, “Quantico” averaged a 0.76 rating in adults 18-49 with a lead-in (“Secrets and Lies”) that drew just about the same ratings. In its first two Monday episodes, with a “Bachelor” lead-in almost three times as large as that of “Secrets and Lies,” “Quantico” has averaged … 0.75.

Between “Conviction” and “Quantico,” ABC has made a mess of its 10 p.m. Monday slot this season, squandering lead-ins from two of its stronger anchors in “Dancing with the Stars” and “The Bachelor.”

“Quantico” probably won’t move much higher than its current ratings this season. It is what it is at this point, and that’s a show ABC should cut ties with at season’s end.

 

Go to the link and look at the chart. Quantico has an overall 0.76 average this season. AoS has a 0.78. Once has a 1.05. Which one do you think is going to get cancelled first? And again, Once isn't coming back for another month. So any speculation is kind of useless until we get the ratings for its return.

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The one item that lends credence to the Quantico speculation is that Bollywood star Priyanka Chopra won the People's Choice award. Now I've always heard that the PC awards are fixed so it is kind of telling that ABC pushed her for the win.  But if they are not fixed then it means that she got a significant amount of voting for a show with a low US rating which leads me to speculate that maybe it is doing well outside of what our rating system measures.

I think Once is on the bubble and ABC is weighing contracts and other factors to determine if the bubble remains or is popped.

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3 hours ago, Tiger said:

AoS was already essentially paid for in already-produced movies and it's Marvel.

I'm not saying anything either way because I don't have any 'inside knowledge' and I don't even watch it but what are these reasons for why Agents of Shield will be renewed?

Because of Marvel movies? Movies that have never once mentioned the show and have no connection at all to it? AoS could be cancelled tomorrow and it wouldn't affect the movies even slightly. 

Also 'It's Marvel' didn't seem to help Agent Carter which was arguably dealing with much more important mythology connected to the movies and its main character has been shown or mentioned in the last three big team up movies because she's so important to Captain America. But it was still cancelled with better ratings and more critical acclaim than AoS is getting right now.

I don't know anything about its renewal chances and I don't really care but I don't understand the reasons here.

Edited by superloislane
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People, a reminder: ratings are not the end-all, be-all when it comes to cancellation/renewal.  They're a big thing to watch out for, yes, and that's what sites like the ones you link to are doing, but there are other factors to consider beyond just ratings, and that's what Tiger is bringing up. Network politics, international revenue, production and cast costs, synergy with a specific brand, etc.  It doesn't matter if Once has higher ratings than Quantico and S.H.I.E.L.D, there have been many cases in the past where shows with better ratings than others got cancelled while the other shows stayed on, and that's because of multiple other factors that are not as easily visible as ratings.  As I said before, the "Hyperion" show is one such factor: if ABC gets another show doing synergy with Disney, Once becomes redundant.  And if the 6B premiere in Spring bombs, cancellation is very likely.

Edited by Mathius
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At this point they will wait to see the premiere rating and follow week to decide Once fate.

I am very uncertain about the rating for the premiere it can go either way back to 1.0 because of the loyalty of the fans but I totally can see be back as a weak .9 

Still Hoping for a renewal but I don't count on it.  There too much variable in play.( agenda and priority of the network, renewal contracts,...) 

And, honestly my interest for last season is greatly depending on what Once choose to focus. Another Regina or Rumple heavy promotion will have me gone for good.  Just not interested in more of the same. 

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28 minutes ago, maryle said:

At this point they will wait to see the premiere rating and follow week to decide Once fate.

That's my impression as well. If the ratings plunge too low, the Show is not going to be renewed. 

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1 hour ago, Mathius said:

People, a reminder: ratings are not the end-all, be-all when it comes to cancellation/renewal.  They're a big thing to watch out for, yes, and that's what sites like the ones you link to are doing, but there are other factors to consider beyond just ratings, and that's what Tiger is bringing up. Network politics, international revenue, production and cast costs, synergy with a specific brand, etc.  It doesn't matter if Once has higher ratings than Quantico and S.H.I.E.L.D, there have been many cases in the past where shows with better ratings than others got cancelled while the other shows stayed on, and that's because of multiple other factors that are not as easily visible as ratings.

Right, but then we also have to give that same consideration to Once. The show uses Disney intellectual property, which is a plus for it similar to the plus you would give AoS. And it has marketing potential that other shows don't have. No one is selling Quantico bobble heads or Quantico-related merchandise through Hot Topic. And Iooking at the schedule, there are very few ABC shows that get a slot at SDCC or other comic cons or have conventions the way Once does. So I do agree with you, but if you're going to give credit to those other shows for their other revenue, you have to give credit to Once as well.

2 hours ago, tri4335 said:

The one item that lends credence to the Quantico speculation is that Bollywood star Priyanka Chopra won the People's Choice award. Now I've always heard that the PC awards are fixed so it is kind of telling that ABC pushed her for the win.  But if they are not fixed then it means that she got a significant amount of voting for a show with a low US rating which leads me to speculate that maybe it is doing well outside of what our rating system measures.

This is a very interesting point and I can see them factoring in "buying" a PC award to their ad budget as part of their relaunch of Quantico on Monday nights. But that didn't seem to work out for them too well. Also, it's interesting that you mention Bollywood. Priyanka has the Baywatch movie coming out this summer and is rumored to be headed back to India soon to be doing another Bollywood movie. I do have to wonder how long she'll want to stick around on a show that's already failing. After all, how many times have we said the same thing about Robert this year? The only difference is Once can go on without with Robert. I don't know if Quantico could survive if Priyanka decided to head to greener pastures.

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I don't watch Quantico, but Priyanka Chopra is a huge star in India. I would be very much surprised if she would want to be tied to a low-rated Show for several years, even if it is in Hollywood. It would be a poor move on her part to stick it out with a failing Show in order to chase international stardom, and in the process lose her foothold in Bollywood. That said, I doubt she'd bail on another season of Quantico, if it does get renewed, but there's no way she's in it for the long haul. 

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@Rumsy4 - but to your point it does air in India where she is a huge star. So if it is number one in India (and I have no idea how India does its ratings and what its actual rating is) does that hurt her that is is bad in US Ratings or does it mean that the Indian market is pulling this low rated US show into a different place?  I don't watch Quanitco and have no plans to do so. I saw that she won the PC through a news feed and thought of the posts in this subject about the ratings.  It seemed odd to me that she won given just how low her show's ratings are so something is driving it - either the network or the number votes she received from India.  But either way she is personally getting more world wide attention then all of the actors on OUAT, with maybe RC being the exception with Trainspotting 2.

http://indianexpress.com/article/entertainment/television/priyanka-chopras-tv-series-quantico-to-air-in-india/

What I've come to understand in the last couple of years is that there is a whole lot of factoring that goes into when to cancel or renew and ratings is one piece of the puzzle.  At this point it won't surprise me if OUAT is renewed or cancelled. I feel that either option is a viable one for ABC.

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I've no idea how widely Quantico is watched or rated in India, but most Indians would not consider her stint in Quantico the same as starring in indian movie productions, even though it airs there. The thing with American Television is that each season of a TV show is like 22 episodes long, and the actors have very little time or freedom to participate in other projects. It seems limiting to an actress in the peak of her Bollywood career. OTOH, it may give her a foothold into Hollywood movies, though being cast as the villain in the new Baywatch movie doesn't sound too exciting. 

23 minutes ago, tri4335 said:

At this point it won't surprise me if OUAT is renewed or cancelled. I feel that either option is a viable one for ABC.

I agree. But if the ratings for the initial episodes in Spring aren't good, no amount of merchandising is going to save the Show, IMO.

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19 minutes ago, Rumsy4 said:

Believing in even the possibility of a renewal is a very powerful thing. Now, let's all make a wish and toss some pennies into the nearest fountain. 

Do you get a dime from the Renewal Foundation every time you say that? ;)

(I'm just quoting the show in case anyone is worried I was being too snarky!)

Edited by KingOfHearts
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3 hours ago, Mathius said:

People, a reminder: ratings are not the end-all, be-all when it comes to cancellation/renewal.  They're a big thing to watch out for, yes, and that's what sites like the ones you link to are doing, but there are other factors to consider beyond just ratings, and that's what Tiger is bringing up. Network politics, international revenue, production and cast costs, synergy with a specific brand, etc.  It doesn't matter if Once has higher ratings than Quantico and S.H.I.E.L.D, there have been many cases in the past where shows with better ratings than others got cancelled while the other shows stayed on, and that's because of multiple other factors that are not as easily visible as ratings.  As I said before, the "Hyperion" show is one such factor: if ABC gets another show doing synergy with Disney, Once becomes redundant.  And if the 6B premiere in Spring bombs, cancellation is very likely.

This.  20, 15, even 10 years ago, a show lived or died almost exclusively on its "live" numbers for a new episode on its U.S. broadcast network.  Now, a shows' broadcast network is just outlet where a show is sold as it were.

Think of it this: let's say Macy's parent company has another subsidiary that makes dresses.  Those dresses are then put out for public consumption/purchase at Macy's and as well as other retailers all around the world some of which are owned by in whole or in part by Macy's parent company, but many not. 

Now let's say a particulat dress is selling terribly at Macy's but is selling really well at those other retailers.  Macy's parent company decides to have its manufacturer subsidary keep making the dress and they keep putting it in Macy's stores only because of it's sales at the other retailers. 

As far as Priyanka's contract and movie(s) as opposed to Robert's, she remains under contract wheras his is up at the end of this season, and as great as Trainspotting was it was a cult classic and its sequel doesnt have nearly the profile that Baywatch will.

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26 minutes ago, KingOfHearts said:

Do you get a dime from the Renewal Foundation every time you say that? ;)

(I'm just quoting the show in case anyone is worried I was being too snarky!)

Haha--I recognized it. Much as I whine about the show, I'm still an OUAT nerd. ;-)

20 minutes ago, Tiger said:

As far as Priyanka's contract and movie(s) as opposed to Robert's, she remains under contract wheras his is up at the end of this season, and as great as Trainspotting was it was a cult classic and its sequel doesnt have nearly the profile that Baywatch will.

We don't know what kind of contract she signed with abc. I seriously can't imagine she would've signed a 7-year contract. She is not likely to quit if Quantico is renewed, though I have a hard time believing Baywatch will be a high-profile block-buster. If Priyanka Chopra ties herself to Quantico for the next 5 or so years in the hope of making it big in Hollywood, I think it would be extremely foolish on her part. It may depend on what kind of movie offers she gets here.  

Robert Carlyle seemed more positive about continuing on in a recent interview. 

ETA: I think both JMo and Carlyle will opt to renew their contracts, if S7 is specified as the final season of OUAT. Beyond that, it's doubtful.

Edited by Rumsy4
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Haha--I recognized it. Much as I whine about the show, I'm still an OUAT nerd. ;-)

You're all losers for liking and knowing so much about this show.  

I've ditched Snow and now I'm sassy just like The Evil Queen.

Edited by Camera One
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I've ditched Snow and now I'm sassy just like The Evil Queen.

Sassy? Well I'm wicked. Emerald City will get renewed and all of you will be green with envy! You always get everything. You are your precious six seasons. Try living in Oz with only a ten episode order!

Edited by KingOfHearts
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18 hours ago, Rumsy4 said:

Robert Carlyle seemed more positive about continuing on in a recent interview. .

I chalk that up to him getting feedback about being forthright about what he's thinking about his career.

The interviews I've seen since aren't even that positive about Once.  They seemed more like maybe he might consider staying a little longer because his kids are settled into school in Vancouver and aren't entirely thrilled with the idea of moving away.

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19 hours ago, Rumsy4 said:

Haha--I recognized it. Much as I whine about the show, I'm still an OUAT nerd. ;-)

We don't know what kind of contract she signed with abc. I seriously can't imagine she would've signed a 7-year contract. She is not likely to quit if Quantico is renewed, though I have a hard time believing Baywatch will be a high-profile block-buster. If Priyanka Chopra ties herself to Quantico for the next 5 or so years in the hope of making it big in Hollywood, I think it would be extremely foolish on her part. It may depend on what kind of movie offers she gets here.  

Robert Carlyle seemed more positive about continuing on in a recent interview. 

ETA: I think both JMo and Carlyle will opt to renew their contracts, if S7 is specified as the final season of OUAT. Beyond that, it's doubtful.

5 years?  It's already struggling just 2 years in.  Priyanka herself is bigger than her show, which doesn't have the ratings or the critical acclaim/ major awards.

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But at the same time, she has probably signed on for a total of seven years so she's at the whim of ABC cancelling her show. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but how hard would it be for her to decide to leave vs. ABC making the decision for her before the contract is up? (And that goes for Once as well. Not familiar with contracts but I know we had this discussion before)

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8 minutes ago, sharky said:

But at the same time, she has probably signed on for a total of seven years so she's at the whim of ABC cancelling her show. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but how hard would it be for her to decide to leave vs. ABC making the decision for her before the contract is up? (And that goes for Once as well. Not familiar with contracts but I know we had this discussion before)

If the show had been a ratings hit or had been a critically acclaimed, awards winner, there might've been more incentive, but certainly not 5 more years of an already declining show.  I assume the show isn't cheap, especially with Priyanka there.

Edited by Free
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42 minutes ago, sharky said:

But at the same time, she has probably signed on for a total of seven years so she's at the whim of ABC cancelling her show. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but how hard would it be for her to decide to leave vs. ABC making the decision for her before the contract is up? (And that goes for Once as well. Not familiar with contracts but I know we had this discussion before)

It can be done.  Based on the two instances I can think of, David Caruso (NYPD Blue) and Rory Cochrane (CSI Miami), the worse case scenario is that you can't work in television until your original contract ends. I don't know that they do that to every actor that bails on a show before their contract is up but I know it was publically discussed as a condition of departure in those two cases.

If the actor has film prospects and either hated working on TV (Cochrane) or is convinced they don't need TV for their career (Caruso) then they might make the decision to leave.  But in both those cases, the shows were popular.  So its probably not as bad a consequence if the show isn't doing well.  I would think a show might just get cancelled if the star wants to leave and its on the bubble.  I don't know any Quantico gossip to know if that could be going on.

Edited by ParadoxLost
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22 hours ago, Tiger said:

As far as Priyanka's contract and movie(s) as opposed to Robert's, she remains under contract wheras his is up at the end of this season,

I heard that his contract was 5 years, so did he just renew if for S6, or did it mean 5 years past S1 when nobody knew if the show would catch on?

Edited by Mathius
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Carlyle must have a signed a standard 7-year contract, which typically works out to 6 seasons of television, as pilots are shot months in advance of season premieres. 

Edited by Rumsy4
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3 minutes ago, Rumsy4 said:

Carlyle must have a signed a standard 7-year contract, which typically works out to 6 seasons of television, as pilots are shot months in advance of season premieres. 

Actors are signed for seasons or episodes when they do a pilot, with the network having the option to terminate a contract without cause at the end of season and with cause during a season.  This is also characterized as the network having an option to pick up the deal at one season intervals up to a total number of consecutive seasons.

It's very rare for anyone, unless they are a huge award winning star ala Viola Davis, to have their initial contract be less than 7 seasons.  Now it's possible somone with Robert Carlyle negotiated for few years and/or episodes per year.  But I can't speak to any particular actors specific terms as I have never read them.

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I'm new to this thread but I can't possibly imagine Quantico or AOS being renewed. The ratings are horrible for both shows. ABC tried to save Quantico and now the show on a better night with a very strong lead in is within 2 episodes back to it's Sunday numbers and it's only gonna drop more. Priyanka may be a star but there's no justification in renewing a flop show when they can just place her on a hopefully better show that will be successful. Most rating sites have already listed Quantico and AOS as almost for sure cancellations.

On 2/11/2017 at 2:13 PM, tri4335 said:

The one item that lends credence to the Quantico speculation is that Bollywood star Priyanka Chopra won the People's Choice award. Now I've always heard that the PC awards are fixed so it is kind of telling that ABC pushed her for the win.  But if they are not fixed then it means that she got a significant amount of voting for a show with a low US rating which leads me to speculate that maybe it is doing well outside of what our rating system measures.

I think Once is on the bubble and ABC is weighing contracts and other factors to determine if the bubble remains or is popped.

PCA's like all other award shows are fixed.

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I think both JMo and Carlyle will opt to renew their contracts, if S7 is specified as the final season of OUAT. Beyond that, it's doubtful.

Based on JMO's enthusiasm at Atvfest, her interviews from the event, and also when Eddy stated that we're ready  for a S7 and pointed to everyone on the stage. I don't think JMO is an issue anymore. She doesn't act like somebody that is going to leave the show. All her interviews are hopeful for a S7, it just depends on ABC.

Edited by cappoe
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14 minutes ago, Tiger said:

It's very rare for anyone, unless they are a huge award winning star ala Viola Davis, to have their initial contract be less than 7 seasons. Now it's possible somone with Robert Carlyle negotiated for few years and/or episodes per year.  

It seems as though he signed a standard 7-year contract. From what I have read, a 7-year contract doesn't necessarily mean 7-seasons, becasue if they signed him (and JMo) on when/before they shot the pilot, that would explain why they are both up for renewal/renegotiation this year. Josh and Ginny are likely in the same boat. Apparently, Lana renegotiated her contract at the end of the first season, so her contract time may be longer than the other main cast. 

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36 minutes ago, Rumsy4 said:

It seems as though he signed a standard 7-year contract. From what I have read, a 7-year contract doesn't necessarily mean 7-seasons, becasue if they signed him (and JMo) on when/before they shot the pilot, that would explain why they are both up for renewal/renegotiation this year. Josh and Ginny are likely in the same boat. Apparently, Lana renegotiated her contract at the end of the first season, so her contract time may be longer than the other main cast. 

A standard 7-year contract always means 7 seasons, no matter how long those seasons are.  Now it's possible that these cast members all signed 6-yr deals, I dont know.  But if they signed 7 yr deals, that means 7 seasons.    

It wouldnt be the first time.  The original Friends contracts were for six seasons, and although the actors renegotiated their per episode pay on their original contract, the term lenght remained the same.

It's only after initial 7 yr deals that actors are able to get more money, outs, better hours, fewer episodes, and other concessions.  For example, I know Ellen Pompeo's last few contracts she has gotten a restricted schedule which results in her character not appearing in all episodes and appearing minimally in some.  

Something else to keep in mind is that the contract is with thw studio that produces the show, not the network that airs it.  

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9 minutes ago, Tiger said:

A standard 7-year contract always means 7 seasons, no matter how long those seasons are.  Now it's possible that these cast members all signed 6-yr deals, I dont know.  But if they signed 7 yr deals, that means 7 seasons. 

At any rate, JMo and Carlyle's contracts are up this year. That doesn't cover Season 7. It would be odd if JMo, the purported lead of the Show, signed a contract for a shorter time than Ginny and Josh (and Lana). 

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Here's a little bit of info from a TV blogger about actor contracts. According to her, actor contracts are typically for 6 seasons. There's a bit of spoilery spec in the article. So, beware clicking the link if you want to avoid spoilers. 

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I think it’s smart that the writers have a plan in place in case that happens. I’m assuming that’s what this is.

A&E? A plan? LOL. They probably assumed all the actors would just renew because their show is still just the bees knees. Then, when the network threatened cancellation and the actors started exploring other options, they said, "Oh crap, we actually do need a backup strategy! Too bad we already wrote most of 6B! Tell Brigette she needs to totally rewrite her episode within 24 hours."

Edited by KingOfHearts
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The last question was interesting about clarifying his answers. I don't want to get too spoilery, but I think at this point, we can assume a few things are in play that could mean some drastic changes for the show regardless of where it goes or doesn't go. I'm still optimistic about a possible season 7 -- ABC's other dramas are circling the drain -- but I do agree that the ratings for the first few weeks in March are going to make things much clearer. I think they're filming until early April, right? So hopefully by then they'll have a few weeks of ratings to determine how much they'll have to film for a cliffhanger or series conclusion.

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On Twitter, Adam is in damage control mode and restating the obvious - he doesn't have clear answers, as the network hasn't told them their final decision yet, basically just reinforcing what Castro said (the story wraps up, a S7 would be a completely different story and cast, but the network has yet to say whether or not such a S7 will happen.)  I agree that the March premiere is what ABC is waiting to see...and prospects for it don't look good.

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 I'm still optimistic about a possible season 7 -- ABC's other dramas are circling the drain

This doesn't matter anymore - not only are they going to get new dramas,  but they're turning a few drama hours over to comedy.

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If ABC makes a decision about Season 7 within the first few weeks of March, A&E have barely enough time to change the finale because that's usually when the finale episode films in Vancouver. If ABC waits longer than that, then A&E might have to film multiple endings and pick one later once ABC makes up their mind.

I have little faith that the premiere episode will return to good numbers. Not only was the winter finale lackluster, but most of the reviews about 6x11 are lukewarm as well.

Edited by Curio
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