Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[YaddaYadda]

Once can start throwing in tons of sex too (sarcasm/not sarcasm).  I find Shonda's shows absolutely terrible.  I gave up on Grey 2 seasons in and I find Scandal's storylines disgusting and while I love, love, LOVE (have I said love?) Viola Davis, I'm not touching that one with a 10 feet pole.

 

The winter finale for Once will have to be really good for newbies and others to want to tune back in after the hiatus.

[RadioGirl27]

I think it's meant to grip new viewers by making them invested in the Hook/Emma romance.  This last week's episode was meant to make them feel badly for Hook, and Adam and Eddy are likely banking on them staying with the show so they can see Hook and Emma's eventual reconciliation after it all blows up.  That is one strategy to enticing them back for 4B if Elsa and Anna are no longer around.

Well, if that's their intention, they are as dumb as Hook is. Because there's no way that this storyline can make the Frozen fans stick around for 4B (and that comes from a Captain Swan shipper). But, yeah, I'm pretty sure the cliffhanger of 4A is going to include, apart from the introduction of the next villian, an "Is he dead or alive?" for Hook.

Edited October 25, 2014 by RadioGirl27

[Camera One]

They're hoping people tune in for Frozen but fall in love with one of the three featured couples with a critical plotline: Hook/Emma, Belle/Rumple and Regina/Robin.  Will these three pairings get the true love ending despite their obstacles?  Tune in for 4B.  I suspect the cliffhanger will be romance-heavy, in addition to opening another urn (or maybe the hat) with the reveal of the next megavillain.

Edited October 25, 2014 by Camera One

[sharky]

In addition to romance heavy, they already have the 4B villain so it would be easy to tease that as well.

As for ratings, yes they may have fallen, but this renew/cancel story from TV by the Numbers surprised me. If you look, Once is one of the best rated show -- number 4 out of 17 shows -- and easily on the renew track. So as much the numbers slipped, it's not going anywhere for at least another season or two.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/10/21/abc-predictions-forever-is-likely-to-be-canceled/315834/

[KAOS Agent]

I thought the reveal of the 4B villain before the season started was meant to try to hold fans who may be disgusted by the blatant use of Frozen. So while they were trying to get new fans via the Frozen, Frozen, did we mention Frozen? on Once ads, they also had a bit of but that's not all, look who we've got coming up after Frozen leaves! This show pulled in new viewers, but it definitely needed to maintain the interest of those who couldn't care less about characters we'll never see again after this half season.

We'll see how the ratings stack up for the finale eps. Once Anna & Elsa get their inevitable happy ending, do any of the Frozen fans care about everyone else in Storybrooke?

[Camera One]

Once Anna & Elsa get their inevitable happy ending, do any of the Frozen fans care about everyone else in Storybrooke?

 

That has to have been one of the goals of Adam and Eddy in writing 4A.  How to endear the existing characters on the show, and get these new viewers invested so they would stay on.  And the easiest way to do this is to make shippers out of them.  

[stealinghome]

That has to have been one of the goals of Adam and Eddy in writing 4A.  How to endear the existing characters on the show, and get these new viewers invested so they would stay on.  And the easiest way to do this is to make shippers out of them.

If that's their strategy, though, they're doing it pretty poorly. Outlaw Queen has been offscreen for 3 of the 5 episodes (thank goodness) and were pretty minor in 1 of the 2 we've seen; meanwhile Rumbelle have had like 1 episode where they've actually spoken to each other. If anything, they seem to have restored Rumpel to his S1 position as mastermind/string-puller du jour.

 

Captain Swan seems to me to be the only couple they're seriously pushing, at least thus far. They've also refocused on the Charming family unit, which I really appreciate.

Edited October 25, 2014 by stealinghome

[Camera One]

If that's their strategy, though, they're doing it pretty poorly. Outlaw Queen has been offscreen for 3 of the 5 episodes (thank goodness) and were pretty minor in 1 of the 2 we've seen; meanwhile Rumbelle have had like 1 episode where they've actually spoken to each other. If anything, they seem to have restored Rumpel to his S1 position as mastermind/string-puller du jour.

 

I'm holding my breath this continues, but I can see them pulling out Belle and Robin when it counts near the end of 4A.  Right now, they're just setting the stage so the blow-up will be all the bigger for Rumbelle.

Edited October 25, 2014 by Camera One

[Jean]

I think they have 2 strategy but their hands are pretty tied to what they can do with Frozen and what they actually want to do.

 

The easist strategy would be to create strong ties and bonds with the Frozen cast and the Once cast. They're half-assing that with Charming/Anna and Emma/Elsa. The biggest difficulty in that is they clearly aren't interested in Charming or Emma but the characters Disney are letting them do that with are probably limited to the good guys. Maybe they would go for it if Anna's shiny bright pure innocence rehabbed evil people but that's not really possible in the setup. It's also easier for them to write the characters they aren't interested in as supporting Anna and Elsa. Don't think Disney would go for their darlings being bench players on some tv show.

 

The other strategy is to draw parallels between the Frozen people and Once people. Again they're half-assing that for the same above reasons. The direct parallels they say they do, they aren't really interested in. The ones they really want to do, they have to do on the sly without direct interactions and flashing neon signs.

 

I don't think it's successful. I'm not even sure the ratings will hold up through all of Frozen in the first place if they don't increase the ratio of Frozen/Once soon.

[paulvdb]

The other thing I just noticed is the Live +3 ratings that sites have been posting and the ones Adam have been bragging about are L+3 not C3. L+3 are essentially meaningless to their revenue because those DVR watchers aren't watching the commercials whereas C3 only counts the ad viewers. I should've known since C3 are rarely publicized, mainly because they don't differ significantly from live-same day. But I thought from all the excitement that they were releasing the C3 numbers because it was doing so well. It's all exaggerated hype. I predict they will come crashing down for 4B.

That's not the real reason why C3 ratings are rarely published. They are usually similar to L+SD, but the real reason is that Nielsen makes its money by selling the ratings. And advertizers would not pay for C3 ratings if they could get them for free on sites like TVBTN.

For those not familiar with the terms, L+3 measures viewers who watch any of the content of the hour on the same day or one of the following three days. C3 measures viewers who watch the commercials on the same day or one of the next three days. If you fast forwards through the commercials you will count as ca. 3/4 of a viewer in the L+3 ratings, but not at all in the C3 ratings because you didn't watch the commercials.

[Jean]

I'm not talking about why Nielsen doesn't release C3 for public consumption, I was referring to why networks don't release or talk about them. You can bet your house that if C3 numbers looked like the L+3, the PR dept. would be working overtime to shout it from the rooftops with press releases. That's what I was referring to. That the networks don't brag about those numbers, like L+3 and L+7, because they rarely differ significantly from L+SD.

 

Yes advertisers pay for a way more detailed report on every minutiae of demographics you coud think of, age, race, gender, income, religious affiliation etc. and other information but tv industry still is the big client because they set their rates. Sometimes you'll see press releases referring to demos that aren't usually known, like boys 12-17 and they do it as a bragging point.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Jean

[Serena]

Early market says 2.6. It's staying quite stable.

[Emma]

Do people really record a show then sit through the commercials?

[Dani-Ellie]

I used to tape the commercials because I sucked at cutting them out, and you'd be surprised how easy it is to forget that you're watching a recording and can skip the commercials.

[FormerMod-a1]

I often watch the commercials.  It's a combination of forgetting I'm watching the DVR, as Dani-Ellie said, or sometimes I use it as a break like when watching live TV - the time to get up and get a beverage or go to the bathroom, or to multi-task (read emails, fold laundry, etc).  I don't watch them all, and yes I know I can pause to do many of those same things, but sometimes it's just easier to go with the breaks that were written in.

[Emma]

^^ It makes sense. I was just curious.

Once took a dive in the ratings. Down to 6.61 million viewers and a 2.3 in the key demo.

[Shanna Marie]

I'd be curious to see the partial hour ratings for this one and see if ratings dropped in the second half hour. I know I was thisclose to turning off the TV midway through because I was going to strain my eye muscles from rolling them so hard. I'm glad I didn't because the last couple of scenes were good, but I barely forced my way through the episode. I wonder if there were people who tuned out.

[Curio]

If those ratings stick, the dip doesn't surprise me. There wasn't a whole lot to get excited about based on what they showed in the previews, and like I guessed, it was mostly a filler episode.

[Jean]

See guys, the black hole of St. Victimus isn't the only place characters go to die, it's also the place where the viewer's motivation to watch gets sucked away too. Ok I kid, but I just want to say just a few posts above I predicted that the ratings wouldn't even hold up during Frozen, much less 4B.

 

 

Do people really record a show then sit through the commercials?

I don't and I suspect that's the norm since C3 numbers and Live+SD aren't all that different. The shows I watch live anymore are usually sports events and late night shows.

[HoodlumSheep]

Sad about the ratings dip, but I'm not surprised. It was kind of a bland episode. :( hopefully the ratings go up a tick in the finals.

[maryle]

Well I'm sad (Emma centric) but not surprise.

I just read the comments and the episode thread for the laugh but couldn't  watched it I looked  theCS scene on youtube. I do hope it will raise up next week. 

[stealinghome]

If anything, the fact that the ratings dipped indicates to me that viewers found the previous week unsatisfying. Most people don't know, like we do, what an episode is going to be about before they turn it on--I suspect it's more about last week's episode and if it seemed engaging and worth returning to this week. That said, I am curious to see the half-hour splits on this one.

[retrograde]

I know people here don't love Regina heavy eps (myself included) but the response in other places (Reddit, comments in recaps) seems to have been really popular, so I don't know of the nature of the ep explains it really.

[sharky]

If anything, the fact that the ratings dipped indicates to me that viewers found the previous week unsatisfying. Most people don't know, like we do, what an episode is going to be about before they turn it on--I suspect it's more about last week's episode and if it seemed engaging and worth returning to this week. That said, I am curious to see the half-hour splits on this one.

Yea, that's why I'm curious about the half hour split as well. Many people in the spoiler thread were worried early on but most people aren't spoiler types.

I'm off to reddit to see why people thought it was popular. I know we're very anti-Regina here but pro-Regina seems really odd after that.

ETA: Excuses game! The show was up against football and the World Series -- both could've easily taken some extra thunder away. I'm expecting a rebound next week.

Edited October 27, 2014 by sharky

[Emma]

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/10/27/how-to-get-away-with-murder-has-biggest-adults-18-49-ratings-increase-red-band-society-tops-percentage-gains-the-blacklist-tops-viewer-gains-in-live-7-ratings-for-week-ending-october-1/319714/

FWIW, Once continues to get a nice bump with the DVR.

Rose from a 2.7 to a 4.0 in the key demo and from 7.9 to 10.9 million viewers.

[Souris]

Count me as another who'd be really curious to see the half-hour splits.

[Mathius]

If anything, the fact that the ratings dipped indicates to me that viewers found the previous week unsatisfying.

No, I don't think that's it: I think it was the preview for this week's episode that did it. Not only was there a big lack of Frozen beyond Elsa chasing obvious illusion Anna, but the main focus was put on Emma and Regina, complete with the latter screaming "YOU RUINED MY LIFE!" I can easily see why most people watching that preview would decide to skip it live.

[Souris]

I don't know how much the general public reads the entertainment blogs (I'm sure it's a very small portion), but all the publicity for this ep was "it's the Swan Queen ep" and Lana talking about Regina being rude to Emma and Emma deserving it -- nothing that I think would be overly inviting to the general public to get them to watch it live.

[HoodlumSheep]

The ratings took a big dip because they were competing against Hocus Pocus, obviously. HOCUS FREAKIN' POCUS!!!

Joking...Not gonna lie, when Once went to commercials, I flipped it over to abcfamily to watch some of it.

Finding the episode kinda "meh," lower ratings sort of fits it, in my opinion. Maybe not this low, but I'm not really surprised that they are lower than the previous eps.

Editing this because I missed the fact that Once had a horrible lead in with that Star Wars Rebels show (a repeat that garnered only a 0.6). That show's mainly geared towards younger boys isn't it? Which isn't really who Once aims for? Not blaming it for the plummet though. But it could also be another factor in the lower ratings. Doesn't AFV average around 1.5 or so? So they're a stronger lead-in?

Edited October 27, 2014 by HoodlumSheep

[retrograde]

I'm off to reddit to see why people thought it was popular. I know we're very anti-Regina here but pro-Regina seems really odd after that.

Sorry I meant to write "positive" not "popular." My point was that the (highly unscientific) sampling of reactions I've read elsewhere have been very positive. I also find it incomprehensible (and I often enjoy Regina's snark but I thought they made her impossible to support this ep) but many people seem to have very different opinions.

My view is that if people didn't watch this week's ep, it is probably because they didn't like last week's ep.

Edited October 27, 2014 by retrograde

[maryle]

The idea that people turn off because last week's episode is weak because last week  episode was similar to what people expected to see since the beginning of the season this week's was marketing differently and attract less in my opinion. 

Some will like it and many will hate so it is divise episode and probably will stay. People  have their  bias about the rating.

[Jean]

Ratings aren't really thought of on a week to week variation. Trends are more important. The only noticeable trend I see is that dramatic drop in S2 and we all know which character was front and center during that precipitous drop. The other trend is 3B's ratings were sort of stabilized which means, they've settled down into their loyal "give me my crack" viewers. If it wasn't for Frozen, there would be the usual decrease in viewers from S3 to S4 before stabilizing again, probably in the range of mid 1s to 2.0

 

And actually I think general viewers probably made up their minds at the end of the premiere what they thought and stuck it out for a few more episodes before removing it from their schedule or getting around to get it off DVRs. There's always a lag phase before you break the habit. You see it with new shows. By ep. 4 or so, you can clearly see the reaction and feelings to the pilot and 2nd episodes.

[FabulousTater]

From TV Media Insights website

 

The half hour rating splits for last night's (Oct. 26) episode:

 

8:00 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time
Viewers: 6.47 million (#4), A18-49: 2.2/ 6 (#4)

 

8:30 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time
Viewers: 6.75 million (#4), A18-49: 2.3/ 6 (#3)

 

ETA: Looking at the ratings for this season so far it's following the S1 trajectory (u can see it in this chart). Started high, fell then stabilized then fell again some more. The big difference being that S1 stayed in the 3.0 range despite it's dips (for the most part). Based on these numbers and the trend so far, I'd say the Frozen newcomers have already checked out. The ratings the show is pulling in recently are similar to it's S3 numbers and that's basically the loyal "give me my crack" viewers (as Jean amusingly phrased it in the post above).

Edited October 27, 2014 by FabulousTater

[Minneapple]

My guess is that the ratings dipped largely because of the World Series game.

My other guess is that everyone hates Regina and SwanQueen as much as I do and they saw the promo from last week and decided, "welp, not worth it."

Edited October 27, 2014 by Minneapple

[stealinghome]

My guess is that the ratings dipped largely because of the World Series game.

This is very true. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a bounce-back next episode.

[Jean]

They have to deal with World Series and the occasional football every season. If it really was due to World Series then I'd expect to see the same noticeable drop every season when it comes up against it. I'm too lazy to track down the actual demos from years past but a quick look at wiki tells me it's not the case for the household numbers at least.

The World Series this year is getting record lows by the way. Not sure about last year's numbers but it was Red Sox vs Cardinals, 2 bigger teams than this year so they probably had better ratings.

The other point is the younger skewing demos (and Frozen fans) are probably internet savvy. So while the majority (99.999%) of the viewing population isn't stalking spoilers on a Once centric board or spend time discussing it online, some type of promos or ads might've reached them. And if you were only tuning in for Frozen wouldn't you seek out Frozen promo stuff or info? I think it's been a misstep not to place the majority of the PR onto the Frozen cast. They even got foreign tv coverage that was linked here somewhere. I'm not sure which country but do they even broadcast Once? Or was it just cause of Frozen?

[Serena]

I think most of the PR has been placed on Frozen. Georgina and Elizabeth even got the TV Guide cover.

 

While it's pretty much impossible to tell what caused the drop, I think we can tell that people calling 405 "the highly anticipated SQ episode" was pretty much bull. If people were really as invested in SQ interactions as the small segment of the Internet population would have you believe, the show wouldn't have dropped so much. It's not the show's lowest rating by any means, but it is this season's lowest. Let's hope this is as far as it drops for at least 4A.

[Jean]

Yes the big marketing push was all before the premiere and it worked as we saw for the premiere numbers. But since then it's small interview here and there but they're not the ones doing the heavy lifting for the episodes promo. Which in a way is fair because as we've seen, Frozen isn't really focused on so to have those people doing the PR stuff would be false advertisement. I'm not saying they should be doing it for every episode either but every 2 or 3 episodes should do it. It's been 5 and clearly whatever the hell they were doing for 4x5 didn't work.

 

Maybe they were arrogant enough to believe their show content would be enough to keep those people sticking around. I just think a more Frozen focused ad would be more attractive than regular ol Once stuff.

[Serena]

The show was adjusted up to a 2.4 and 6.87 million viewers. Still the lowest of the season, but less of a drop.

[Emma]

Happy to see it adjusted up.

 

I have many issues with that episode but I hate to see the ratings dive. I still need my fix for a bit longer.

[sharky]

Don't worry -- it's not going anywhere. The other shows on Sunday are doing so bad that ABC will definitely stick with a sure bet. Plus, they are getting close to syndication numbers so they'll definitely hold on to it for a bit longer.

[Serena]

TV Line is saying Once is a sure thing for renewal.

[Emma]

I'm not worried about it being cancelled yet. It's one of the few successes on ABC.

 

But if we have any more episodes (Emma-Regina crap) like the last one and I'll be wishing for a swift death.

[KAOS Agent]

Never assume renewal this early or base any assumptions on a single dip or rise for an episode. You never know what could happen with this show. The ratings for this show fell off a cliff in mid season 2 and was only saved because they started at such a high place, it features an interesting demographic in terms of who's watching (parents and kids watching together is very rare and of huge interest to certain advertisers) and it provides decent counter programming on Sunday night. If something like that happens again, they may not be so lucky.

[HoodlumSheep]

The show was adjusted up to a 2.4 and 6.87 million viewers. Still the lowest of the season, but less of a drop.

Happy to see it adjust up.

[Serena]

Never assume renewal this early or base any assumptions on a single dip or rise for an episode. You never know what could happen with this show. The ratings for this show fell off a cliff in mid season 2 and was only saved because they started at such a high place, it features an interesting demographic in terms of who's watching (parents and kids watching together is very rare and of huge interest to certain advertisers) and it provides decent counter programming on Sunday night. If something like that happens again, they may not be so lucky.

While the S2 ratings were lower, they were still in the high 1s, so it was never in danger of cancellation. 

[Souris]

Did the Live+3 ratings for the last ep ever get released? I don't know what day they usually are.

[Emma]

I haven't found them either. Curious about that.

[daxx]

Nothing to brag about maybe?

[Emma]

I didn't see any of the usual suspects post the numbers though. Which is just weird.