Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Free]

4 hours ago, Hookian said:

 

Conviction find an audience? LOL that's a joke. Abysmal ratings after a very strong lead in. That's not gonna change on Sundays.

Conviction is a dead show walking, it's basically burning off its episodes on Sundays.

[Jean]

I haven't been around these parts in years but someone just asked me if I had any thoughts. This show is dead and you can take it to the bank. I give it a 0.1% chance barring a Frozen-like revival. The simplest reason and most publicly available information I could share so that you can judge for yourself is this.

Dungey, Sherwood and the rest of the top brass has a very clear plan and a very clear vision for ABC and they are pretty much on the same page.

1. in-house comedies 2. procedurals 3. realistic stories about working class/blue-collar middle and rural America.

See the big problem? The first 2 they've been committed to since immediately after last years upfronts. It is part of the reason Lee was summarily dismissed because he didn't agree, especially the about face on procedurals. The last one is a direct result of current real life political climate. So they are scrambling and making it a top priority. They are not the only ones but they are behind the ball. They are 100% committed to this rebranding based on those 3 tenets.

Now taking a very quick look at Once's ratings and absolutely nothing justifies ABC trying to navigate around this minefield for Once. Take a list of the bottom half of their shows and which show(s) is the furthest from any one of the above 3 categories. The answer is pretty obvious.

I'm not sure yet if one of the ET sites has put out a development tracker. If and when they do, take a look at scripts in development. I'm willing to bet the house that almost all, if not all, could be binned into at least one of those 3.

[Mathius]

27 minutes ago, Jean said:

Now taking a very quick look at Once's ratings and absolutely nothing justifies ABC trying to navigate around this minefield for Once. Take a list of the bottom half of their shows and which show(s) is the furthest from any one of the above 3 categories. The answer is pretty obvious.

So, you're thinking no S7, and that they're gonna go for a total overhaul of Sunday night programming? 

[Souris]

1 hour ago, Jean said:

I haven't been around these parts in years but someone just asked me if I had any thoughts. This show is dead and you can take it to the bank. I give it a 0.1% chance barring a Frozen-like revival.

Thank you for your input!

Do you think they could give the show a shortened S7 as a bit of a stop-gap to getting another show in next midseason, or not even that?

[YaddaYadda]

This makes me feel so much better about how much of a train wreck this season has been. *sigh*

[Curio]

Just let Season 7 be Captain Swan sailing the Pacific Ocean as they run into Moana. The ratings will be huge I tell you. YUGE.

[RadioGirl27]

21 minutes ago, YaddaYadda said:

This makes me feel so much better about how much of a train wreck this season has been. *sigh*

Well, I'm sad the show is going to die in such a bad note, probably without a proper conclusion.

[sharky]

At the same time, look at the procedurals they put on the schedule this season. Conviction tanked. Notorious may be a procedural, not sure. Their biggest hit isn't a procedural. So yea, procedurals but from where?

[Jean]

No  I don't see a mercy S7 due to limited real estate. It's that #3 that's thrown them in a bit of frenzy. Comedy expansion, procedurals expansion/replacement and introducing a new brand? I just don't see a path. There is no conceivable reason or advantage to throwing away limited slots on a low performing show that doesn't fit their vision.

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So yea, procedurals but from where?

Development.

That's not to say the show can't be moved to another place in some other form. You'd have to get the cast or some of them and the producers to agree but I don't have an opinion or info on that either way. But on ABC prime time? Good as done.

[daxx]

I actually can't stand procedurals with the exception of Sherlock. Sigh. I want my high fantasy or sci fi with fantastical roots. Where is Dragonriders of Pern for TV?

[Rumsy4]

I donno if procedurals will do will on a Sunday night, though. I think ONCE still has a chance if the ratings don't plunge lower. Not for a full season order. It's possible that they will get cancelled, but with enough time to wrap it up with a 2 hour finale. 

Edited December 8, 2016 by Rumsy4

[KingOfHearts]

33 minutes ago, daxx said:

I actually can't stand procedurals with the exception of Sherlock. Sigh. I want my high fantasy or sci fi with fantastical roots. Where is Dragonriders of Pern for TV?

I hate procedurals too. With a passion.

[maryle]

 I can watch procedural it depends law and order have really good episode (still love old Colombo episode too) 

But, what I read is annoying because I am not sure A and E take in consideration ABC could very well be cancelling the show this year. 

[Tiger]

11 hours ago, Free said:

Conviction is a dead show walking, it's basically burning off its episodes on Sundays.

It's not.  They are going to re-tool, possibly dumping everyone but Hayley and Merrin.

 

5 hours ago, Mathius said:

So, you're thinking no S7, and that they're gonna go for a total overhaul of Sunday night programming? 

 Sunday will be completely overhauled; it's considered the big project for next fall.  It's probably going to AFV, Thr Middle, another family comedy, Shark Tank, and a procedural.

It's great that @Jean is coroborating what I've been told and re-iterated here.

I actually spoke to my friend at ABC Studios this afternoon and she said ABC might add two additional hours of comedy next fall, Friday 9-10 and another hour on Sunday.  Friday will be multi-cams, and Sunday will be singlecam with The Middle and likely Fresh or O'Neals, with the other staying on Tue with Housewife and Black-ish.  

Blackish may actually make the move to Tue before the end of this season.

This further closes roads to Once being renewed.  

Edited December 8, 2016 by Tiger

[Eolivet]

I have zero network experience, but procedurals sound like they will be a tough nut to crack for ABC. They've been "the serial drama network" for a long time, now -- no Law & Orders, Chicago Whatevers or NCISes to speak of. My completely novice opinion is that's a mistake for The Net That Shonda Built.

I'm shocked, but not surprised, about a possible lack of season 7 for this show, though. You don't sink Sunday night without some consequences.

(If only they'd listened to Marc Berman, who said to move the show at the beginning of this year...well, things would probably be no different. But he was right. It now seems obvious that it was stupid for them to leave it there, and to expect it to anchor the night when it was on its way down.)

[Mathius]

4 hours ago, Rumsy4 said:

I think ONCE still has a chance if the ratings don't plunge lower.

The problem is there is almost no way in hell that they're not going to plunge lower in Spring.

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It's that #3 that's thrown them in a bit of frenzy. Comedy expansion, procedurals expansion/replacement and introducing a new brand? I just don't see a path. There is no conceivable reason or advantage to throwing away limited slots on a low performing show that doesn't fit their vision.

So basically, Donald Trump's election might have doomed OUAT.  I don't know whether to bless or curse his name for that.

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Sunday will be completely overhauled; it's considered the big project for next fall.  It's probably going to AFV, Thr Middle, another family comedy, Shark Tank, and a procedural.

It's great that @Jean is coroborating what I've been told and re-iterated here.

I actually spoke to my friend at ABC Studios this afternoon and she said ABC might add two additional hours of comedy next fall, Friday 9-10 and another hour on Sunday.  Friday will be multi-cams, and Sunday will be singlecam with The Middle and likely Fresh or O'Neals, with the other staying on Tue with Housewife and Black-ish. 

Wow.  Please, if you have any more info, do tell! This is fascinating.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Mathius

[Shanna Marie]

Just now, Mathius said:

The problem is there is almost no way in hell that they're not going to plunge lower in Spring.

The only way to really boost the ratings now is to both bring in some hot property as a stunt (a la Frozen) and overhaul the writing. The situation is too complicated and too far along to bring in brand-new viewers at this point, so their only hope is getting back viewers who left. That's why I'm not sure I can imagine them devoting any resources to pushing or rebuilding this show. The time to act might have been in season 4 when the Frozen boost ended up disappearing quickly, but it's kind of a lost cause now. These writers needed more adult supervision, maybe some focus groups to get insight that wasn't coming from obsessed and loud 'shipping factions on Twitter. These writers aren't good at taking criticism or seeing their own faults, so it would have had to take word from above at the network level. I suspect the network will be perfectly happy to let it wither away rather than doing anything to save the show from itself.

[Mathius]

Just now, Shanna Marie said:

The only way to really boost the ratings now is to both bring in some hot property as a stunt (a la Frozen) and overhaul the writing.

Unfortunately, we know that isn't happening. The property they're going into is Aladdin, which was advertised and bombed already.

[Shanna Marie]

8 minutes ago, Mathius said:

The property they're going into is Aladdin, which was advertised and bombed already.

That's where the writing overhaul would need to come in, and that's definitely not happening without outside intervention, and I don't see the network bothering at this point. They may just give them enough rope to hang themselves right now -- leave them alone, not bother giving any input on stories or scripts, not promoting, and letting the ratings fall so far that they can shrug and say it's just business, sorry. If the writers were smart and wanted to keep their jobs, they'd be scrambling now to see how much they could retool and try to win back fans, not doubling down on the things fans have complained about and then antagonizing them.

[Camera One]

And they're pretty far along in 6B production now, aren't they?  Their writing plans are probably not going to change.  For former viewers, seeing Gideon or Robin Hood in the promo isn't going to attract them.  And whoever got tricked into watching the season 6 premiere to catch the Aladdin stuff followed by weeks of "Aladdin and Jasmine are coming!" probably see the show as "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".  Those who saw "Street Rats" would know not to bother to come back.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Camera One

[KingOfHearts]

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And they're pretty far along in 6B production now, aren't they?

They're filming around 6x14-15, I believe. (Adam's episode titles usually coincide with filming.)

Edited December 8, 2016 by KingOfHearts

[Mathius]

They're going to be starting 6x14.  6x15, where the Aladdin stuff picks up again, will film at the start of January.

There are only 7 episodes left after that, with no chance for an overhaul.  It's game over, man.  Game over.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Mathius

[Rumsy4]

16 minutes ago, Shanna Marie said:

These writers needed more adult supervision, maybe some focus groups to get insight that wasn't coming from obsessed and loud 'shipping factions on Twitter.

I really do believe that Adam's obsession with Twitter is the cause of this trainwreck. He has spent hours and hours placating bullies and trolls, to the point where he lost all perspective about honest feedback and fan perception. 

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There are only 7 episodes left after that, with no chance for an overhaul.  It's game over, man.  Game over.

Pretty much. Filming wraps in March, right? 

[Mathius]

10 minutes ago, Rumsy4 said:

Pretty much. Filming wraps in March, right? 

Yeah, filming always wraps at the end of March / beginning of April.

[Souris]

The writers did drastically change their plans for 5B once they came back from the holiday break last year, but I think that only really affected the eps from mid-arc on because they already had several eps in the can, as they will this season. So they might be able to alter the last few eps of the season/series if they can bring themselves to admit they need to, but it certainly won't be enough to save the show.

I don't think A&E will admit to themselves that this is likely the final season, so they won't prepare for it. Unless ABC tells them it's canceled with enough time to actually wrap things up, A&E won't have a contingency plan in place.

And let's be real, A&E will write the finale, so there's no chance it won't be SQ-centric crap.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Souris

[Mathius]

6 minutes ago, Souris said:

The writers did drastically change their plans for 5B once they came back from the holiday break last year, but I think that only really affected the eps from mid-arc on because they already had several eps in the can, as they will this season. So they might be able to alter the last few eps of the season/series if they can bring themselves to admit they need to, but it certainly won't be enough to save the show.

I don't think A&E will admit to themselves that this is likely the final season, so they won't prepare for it. Unless ABC tells them it's canceled with enough time to actually wrap things up, A&E won't have a contingency plan in place.

It wasn't a drastic change for the whole arc though, just it's conclusion (Robin dies, cue Split Queen plot).

Likewise, I hope around this same time now the studio tells them to construct the end of this arc/season as the series finale.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Mathius

[Curio]

Even if they retool everything and scramble to give the show a proper series finale wrap-up in the last seven episodes, it won't be enough to fix the damage that Season 6 has done. Any sort of rushed engagement and wedding between Emma and Hook won't feel earned because they've barely gotten any focus this year. (Which is why an engagement should have happened in the Season 5 finale. Sometimes, a slow burn is too slow if you take for granted how much the network likes your show.) Regina has so much screen time built up that she'll still end up with by far the most screen time and focus once Season 6 finally wraps up.

Just let that sink in for a second... literally every other season of this show has had either Emma or Snow as the lead with the most screen time or focus, except Season 6. If Season 7 doesn't happen, A&E were finally successful in making Regina the main character they've always wanted from the beginning. I feel cheated.

[Mathius]

31 minutes ago, Curio said:

Just let that sink in for a second... literally every other season of this show has had either Emma or Snow as the lead with the most screen time or focus, except Season 6. If Season 7 doesn't happen, A&E were finally successful in making Regina the main character they've always wanted from the beginning. I feel cheated.

Honestly, at this point that's the most honest ending this show could get.

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So do I.  A Regina and Rumbelle heavy final season is the last thing I wanted to see for this Show. 

 

Again, you can't deny it's an honest reflection of what the show turned into.

I'm sorry, but an Emma, CS, or Charming Family-focused finale was never gonna happen.  It's TS, TW.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Mathius

[Rumsy4]

14 minutes ago, Curio said:

Sometimes, a slow burn is too slow if you take for granted how much the network likes your show.

I think this is pretty much what happened. Goodness only know why they thought turning this season into a Regina-fest would ensure their longevity. Jekyll and Hyde was the worst idea they could have had for the 5B finale. That's where it started going all downhill.

Quote

If Season 7 doesn't happen, A&E were finally successful in making Regina the main character they've always wanted from the beginning. I feel cheated.

So do I.  A Regina and Rumbelle heavy final season is the last thing I wanted to see for this Show. 

Edited December 8, 2016 by Rumsy4

[Camera One]

15 minutes ago, Curio said:

Just let that sink in for a second... literally every other season of this show has had either Emma or Snow as the lead with the most screen time or focus, except Season 6. If Season 7 doesn't happen, A&E were finally successful in making Regina the main character they've always wanted from the beginning. I feel cheated.

I would feel disappointed too.   Sadly, the only season Snow was an actual lead was Season 1 and maybe 2A.  Even if the bar graph says she was the top, most of her screentime in the last few seasons was insignificant.  Though one more season would give us one more chance for a heartwarming 1 minute plus Snow/Emma moment (not even going to hope for a full-out Snow/Emma episode anymore).

Yes, a seventh season would probably answer questions like is Merida happy, what happened to Lily and how are Ruby Slippers, but it might give us a few guest stars we actually want to see again.

I'm still wishing for a Season 7... where's that lamp?  I'm confident that one of you will save me if I end up in a Wish Realm where I'm in the Writer's Room with A&E&J.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Camera One

[Rumsy4]

45 minutes ago, Camera One said:

I'm still wishing for a Season 7... where's that lamp?  I'm confident that one of you will save me if I end up in a Wish Realm where I'm in the Writer's Room with A&E&J.

If I come, I promise to not murder any writers, real or fake, in order to rescue you. But I can't promise anything else. ;-) 

[Hookian]

I still think we'll get a S7 final 13 episodes. Air in Fall or Winter, do it for the fans ABC. This is one of your best shows still when every other drama on your network is failing. 

I feel like if the show remains stable which I do believe because 5B was remarkably stable throughout almost it's entire run. I think if that works we'll hopefully be fine. I can see us coming back with a 1.0/1.1 and then going back and forth from there to 0.9. The Easter episode will probably be a nightmare but by then I'm sure we'll know the shows fate.

I feel Adam and Eddy will know after the holidays one way or another.

[Curio]

If Season 6 is the final season, it will become another HIMYM example of what not to do. This all could have been so easily preventable, too. Everyone knew splitting Regina in two was a bad idea. No one was enthused about Jekyll and Hyde. It's like A&E became too pompous and truly believed their show could last until Season 8 or 9, so they didn't care at all about wasting time on random plots and characters until ABC stepped in, told them they were running out of time, and that's why there were so many reshoots in the premiere episode. I imagine there will be classes taught at film schools that use A&E as a case study on how not to showrun and how not to listen to a small portion of vocal fans.

[RedKeep]

I think in some ways it might actually be a relief for me if the show does end this season. The more I think about it, the less I am convinced that a shortened 7th season would really make much of a difference in terms of how Horowitz and Kitsis would set up the series finale. They've mentioned again and again that they know and knew from the start how they want the show to end and while they must have made certain minor changes to that scenario after some time, to include new characters like Hook for example, I have no trouble believing that they want to go with something that essentially has to stand on its own, the type of gimmicky episode they seem to love, going by their season finales. I don't trust them to use any additional 10-12 episodes that a shortened last season may provide to write proper build-up for whatever their series finale idea is. Chances are they'd just waste them (or most of them) on weird new, ratings stunt guest characters or they'll suddenly decide Mulan now seriously needs a centric devoted to giving her a happy ending or whatever.

[Mathius]

7 hours ago, Hookian said:

I feel Adam and Eddy will know after the holidays one way or another.

Yes, it was after the big management shake-up that they got told of a S6 renewal after the holidays, so they'll get that notice of a renewal or not now.

Quote

It's like A&E became too pompous and truly believed their show could last until Season 8 or 9

Oh, definitely.  Jane as well...she once tweeted she believes the show could hypothetically last around 10 seasons.

Quote

I imagine there will be classes taught at film schools that use A&E as a case study on how not to showrun and how not to listen to a small portion of vocal fans.

Which is a shame since they DID have talent as showrunners in most areas (managing producers, casting department, cast members, costume department, music, etc.), but their two big failings which have gotten worse and worse overtime are in writing and PR.  And it's those two that have had a negative effect on everything else and are dooming the show.  And yes, sadly their reputation and career will forever be tarnished by this.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Mathius

[YaddaYadda]

Move it to Freeform for all I care, just give me a decent wrap-up. That's really what I care about and I don't think we will get it if the show gets cancelled right now.

[Rumsy4]

Maybe it will end up with the a limited mid-season run like Wonderland and Galavant. 

[Serena]

15 hours ago, Tiger said:

It's not.  They are going to re-tool, possibly dumping everyone but Hayley and Merrin.

It's already been cancelled. They announced it on Election night, that's why nobody noticed.

I still believe Once will get a S7, even if shortened *shrug* they have NADA on Sunday. Quantico was their big Sunday hope last year and... yeah. They'll try one last time to launch something behind it.

[InsertWordHere]

1 hour ago, Rumsy4 said:

Maybe it will end up with the a limited mid-season run like Wonderland and Galavant. 

I was thinking something like this or even just a few episodes at this point. I am beginning to doubt even a shortened 12 episode season 7.  

[Mathius]

1 hour ago, YaddaYadda said:

Move it to Freeform for all I care, just give me a decent wrap-up. That's really what I care about and I don't think we will get it if the show gets cancelled right now.

And I ask what makes you think we will get it if it gets a S7?  With A&E at the helm, I believe we're in for a letdown no matter what happens.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Mathius

[KingOfHearts]

Guys, don't wish for S7. If S6 has taught us anything, it's A&E are the worst genies ever.

[Rumsy4]

5 minutes ago, KingOfHearts said:

Guys, don't wish for S7. If S6 has taught us anything, it's A&E are the worst genies ever.

What if we wish their wish for S7 renewal be granted. ;-)

[YaddaYadda]

32 minutes ago, Mathius said:

And I ask what makes you think we will get it if it gets a S7?  With A&E at the helm, I believe we're in for a letdown no matter what happens.

I don't know, hope? I live on HOPE, okay!!!

Seriously, I know that no matter how many episodes A&E are given, they will manage to squander half of them, come up with a half-baked story and plan and will just spin their wheels until they actually get to the last 5 episodes (more like 3 episodes) before they actually write something decent. So it's not like I have faith in them, I just want the stories and characters I'm invested in to get some sort of closure. 

[Souris]

3 hours ago, RedKeep said:

They've mentioned again and again that they know and knew from the start how they want the show to end and while they must have made certain minor changes to that scenario after some time, to include new characters like Hook for example, I have no trouble believing that they want to go with something that essentially has to stand on its own, the type of gimmicky episode they seem to love, going by their season finales. 

I have this idea that final image will be Emma & Regina sending Henry off to college in the "real world" and congratulating themselves on how well they raised "their" son.

2 hours ago, Mathius said:

Yes, it was after the big management shake-up that they got told of a S6 renewal after the holidays, so they'll get that notice of a renewal or not now.

I don't know when A&E were told, but the renewal was announced on March 3.

1 hour ago, Serena said:

It's already been cancelled. They announced it on Election night, that's why nobody noticed.

That wasn't an official announcement; ABC didn't comment. It seemed to be based on a source revealing they hadn't gotten a back-9 order. That has been pretty typical evidence of cancellation, so the writer may have assumed the show was done-done, but that doesn't sound like it's the case here.

[YaddaYadda]

2 minutes ago, Souris said:

I don't know when A&E were told, but the renewal was announced on March 3.

They found out at the 100th episode party, and that's also when the rumors started that the show was renewed. 

[Souris]

4 minutes ago, YaddaYadda said:

They found out at the 100th episode party, and that's also when the rumors started that the show was renewed. 

OK, then that was late February. If the timeline were the same on a decision, that wouldn't give the writers much time at all to change things for a wrap-up.

[YaddaYadda]

4 minutes ago, Souris said:

OK, then that was late February. If the timeline were the same on a decision, that wouldn't give the writers much time at all to change things for a wrap-up.

Late February means that they have 2 episodes left to shoot. So if the show is coming to an end this season, I would hope that the writers, the cast and crew already know about that.

[Rumsy4]

32 minutes ago, YaddaYadda said:

I don't know, hope? I live on HOPE, okay!!!

Seriously, I know that no matter how many episodes A&E are given, they will manage to squander half of them, come up with a half-baked story and plan and will just spin their wheels until they actually get to the last 5 episodes (more like 3 episodes) before they actually write something decent. So it's not like I have faith in them, I just want the stories and characters I'm invested in to get some sort of closure. 

I have one small hope--the abc advisory board poll. Many people posted their legit issues over too much plot and angst. Even if they get conflicting fan feedback (pro Hook vs anti Hook, for example), they might be smart enough to see that too reduced screentime for Hook and CS was a bad thing for this season. Same goes with the excessive focus on Regina. People clamoring for more Regina got what they wanted, but the ratings have dropped. If abc renewes ONCE, they may give them some hints on what characters to focus on. OTOH, they may just wash their hands off and let the Show die a natural death. Hard to say.

[TheGreenKnight]

This is why I was so annoyed at the end of 5 about all the network meddling. I wanted the show to go out whatever way the writers decided without getting caught up in a storyline egged on a by executives in the possible final season, like we now have with the Land of Untold Stories to get rid of A/B halves, the return of the Evil Queen (for marketing's sake), and Aladdin thrown in there for extra measure.

[Kktjones]

4 hours ago, RedKeep said:

They've mentioned again and again that they know and knew from the start how they want the show to end and while they must have made certain minor changes to that scenario after some time, to include new characters like Hook for example, I have no trouble believing that they want to go with something that essentially has to stand on its own, the type of gimmicky episode they seem to love, going by their season finales.

It's funny because I always assumed they would end the show with a callback to the pilot. So either ending with Emma blowing out her birthday candle, but this time surrounded by her TL, family & friends, or with Regina gone full EQ interrupting Emma & Hook's wedding. Guess I was way off because they blew through both of those scenes in Sunday's finale. 

As bad as I would feel for the cast and crew, I wouldn't be sorry if the show ended this season. They are clearly out of ideas and as long as they are given a bit of notice, they could pretty easily wrap things up in the last 2 - 3 episodes. I know a lot of people have been talking about a short 13 episode season, but I don't know how that would work b/c they really can only do 10 or 11 before the holidays, so I think it will be 10 or maybe as others have mentioned 6 - 8 episodes as a replacement show during the Jan-Feb timeframe (like Galavant & OUATIW).