Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[cappoe]

52 minutes ago, Mathius said:

And evidently, there are complications going on with the current negotiations, most likely from JMO and/or Robert Carlyle. 

I haven't ready any complications. It's very clear though. That it's gonna take more than Lana to get a S7. If they can't get JMO and Colin then S7 won't happen.

ER's are not enough to gain a S7 and ABC knows that. I don't see Carlysle returning though TBH. JMO yes but not Carlyle.

Edited March 14, 2017 by cappoe

[TheGreenKnight]

Not surprising based on what we'd heard previously. I won't lie, but I'd kind of be happy if Carlyle left. I have no interest in Rumpel or Belle at all anymore, and haven't since 5A. I would miss Zelena if S7 happens, but she's already been phased out this year anyway. :/ (Which sucks. I'd rather she had had heavy screentime in S6 and then been killed off before the hypothetical S7 began than slowly fade into the background like she has.)

Edited March 14, 2017 by TheGreenKnight

[CCTC]

6 hours ago, TheGreenKnight said:

I won't lie, but I'd kind of be happy if Carlyle left.

I mentioned his on the spoiler thread, but I realized, as great as an actor he is and how much I enjoyed the character at one point, I just don't care about him anymore.  He has betrayed everyone too many times at the drop of the hat that he know longer works as a gray character and we have seen him be a villain enough for six years where it is a bit stale.   The last few times he has appeared as Rumple in flashbacks or in the wish-realm it seemed repetitive and predictable.  His relationship with Belle crossed the line to be pure abusive, and even if he was to be reformed, it would be a bad message for her to go back to him.  I don't want him back as a gray or good character and I think they could get more mileage with a new villain.

[Souris]

More info from that guy.

So basically S7 would be Regina, Hook, maybe Zelena and Henry.

[Serena]

Personally I would believe Deadline more than the "personal speculation" (his words) of a pap on Twitter.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Serena

[RulerofallIsurvey]

19 minutes ago, Mathius said:

closest enough to what's going on BTS to indicate that negotiations with JMO and Robert are hitting a brick wall, since the whole point of a rebooted S7 is to cut costs, and JMO and Robert aren't willing to work on this show for reduced pay.

To be fair, we don't know that reduced pay is even one of the negotiating points.  Cutting costs on the show as a whole can be accomplished just through cutting the cast; not cutting the salaries of the remaining cast.  It could be length of the contract or the possible move to another network which are (also?) road blocks to agreements.  

OT? (more like side topic) I browsed through Hulu last night and found several shows on FreeForm (some I might even check out.)  Never noticed before!  So thanks for the heads up from people on this thread.  :)

[Tiger]

12 hours ago, Mathius said:

And evidently, there are complications going on with the current negotiations, most likely from JMO and/or Robert Carlyle. 

I'm shocked that negotiations that arent happening arent going well.  

[Tiger]

15 hours ago, jjjmoss said:

It was also the return of American Crime following that new flop TAT. ABC probably sabotaged the company (or paid them) so that tomorrow when the ratings come out they can focus on how big the finale of The Bachelor was to distract from their flop Sunday.

(Kidding.)

All snark aside, the networks must be pissed at Nielsen right now as they are trying to make big decisions about existing shows and are having to wait on only the Sunday and last night ratings, but also the live+7 for the final week of the Feb sweep and final Feb sweep numbers. 

[Camera One]

I heard something happened at a power station.  I think it's Snow White with her baby and a wrench.

The Curse of the Angry Disney Characters is not pretty.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Camera One

[sharky]

Nielsen lost power at their data center in Florida and their Saturday ratings are also affected. Not as big of a deal since most new shows don't air on that night, but it does affect SNL in the middle of their political bump. 

[cappoe]

1 hour ago, Mathius said:

Um, but Deadline only said negotiations were going on, not that JMO and Robert Carlyle were secured.  On the contrary, this tweet is only the latest in the fan community closest enough to what's going on BTS to indicate that negotiations with JMO and Robert are hitting a brick wall, since the whole point of a rebooted S7 is to cut costs, and JMO and Robert aren't willing to work on this show for reduced pay...and really, who could blame them?

I could definitely see Lana and Bex staying on, and even Jared for flashbacks assuming Henry is an adult now.  Unlike other people, I don't think Colin would refuse to still be on even if JMO left...he's a fan of CS, but he's a fan of the character of Hook first and foremost, and playing him pays well.

Hook's upcoming multi-episode adventure away from Emma is probably a testing ground for just that scenario.

Yeah but in S7 with Emma

Spoiler

as his wife

what exactly is gonna be his story? Are they really going to separate Hook from Emma and have S7 be about him moving basically everything to get to her and the others? Which would probably be the EF.

I imagine if that is what's happening I'll stick to scenes on youtube. Until the episode CS reunite.

I honestly can't think fo a reason how this big cast split would work aside from them literally sbeing cursed to the EF and then next season being about reuniting with the family.

But that's risky because nobody that is leaving is obligated to come back for reunion episode though I imagine JMO would do it as she did for House and HIMYM.

[YaddaYadda]

There's so much speculation, that even if the show gets renewed, people will be upset because their fave might be exiting. 

Might as well cancel the whole thing. It's not like the show will be getting any better, although stopping Adam and Eddie from writing anything, speaking to the media, might actually help.

[MostlyC]

Topic.  

I'm handing out warnings.

Further off topic posts are going to be summarily deleted and/or warned.

This thread is about RATINGS AND SCHEDULING, not contracts, spoiler speculation, fandom, character discussion and wish lists.

[Camera One]

Nielsen promised the ratings would be in at 4:30pm ET, which has come and gone.  

[Souris]

Networks trying to make renewal decisions must be getting more frothing mad by the second!

Edited March 15, 2017 by Souris

[sharky]

It's networks and cable both. So renew/cancel for shows, news shows, and we're about to start NCAA tournament tomorrow on both network and cable. They posted prelim network Saturday numbers on tvbythenumbers, but I think that's as close as we've come to any ratings.

[Curio]

It would be kind of funny if this one Nielsen goof is what ends up saving OUAT because ABC doesn't have enough data to fully commit to cancelling it.

[sharky]

I really am starting to think that this was A&E's doing. Like, maybe they had Ginny as Snow White go down to Florida and talk to some squirrels, convince them to kill themselves in an "electric substation malfunction" for the sake of the greater good or something.

[Souris]

Nielsen finally coughed up the ratings: Once stayed the same at 0.9.

[sharky]

So not bad but not great. Still keeps it in 50/50 territory. I guess we expect that now but geez, that decision to renew or cancel is not going to be easy. Although the story linked above did note that Once didn't suffer from the typical DST slide so at least they had that going for them. 

Edited March 16, 2017 by sharky

[Curio]

I'm curious to see how big of a drop-off there will be next week based on Sunday's cliffhanger reveal.

[AnotherCastle]

http://www.showbuzzdaily.com/articles/the-sked-sunday-ratings-3-12-2017.html

Half-Hours: 8:00pm: 1.0 - 8:30pm: 0.8

[sharky]

So there were 0.2 of viewers who were smart enough to not watch the end. 

[Souris]

According to set stalker, crew hasn't heard anything about renewal yet, which is unusual.

[sharky]

He also said someone was getting killed off as well. Meh. Haven't we already assumed that? I get that they are close to set and may have connections, but they're also just paps stalking the sets up there so I take it with a grain of salt. I don't think the crew just hang out giving info to set stalkers like they're best buds. We know this is taking longer than past seasons -- we don't need a set stalker to tell us that. 

Edited March 16, 2017 by sharky

[Free]

4 hours ago, Souris said:

According to set stalker, crew hasn't heard anything about renewal yet, which is unusual.

Basically everyone is still in the dark and there are still ongoing contract negotiations.

[Tiger]

8 hours ago, Souris said:

According to set stalker, crew hasn't heard anything about renewal yet, which is unusual.

I truly hope those people are out looking for other work because the show isnt coming back.  ABC is literally right now trying to decide which comedies to use as a beachhead on Sundays.  

I have it on good authority that they are looking at different comedy lineups depending on what NBC does with This Is Us.  If NBC moves it, then ABC is going to move Blackish to Tue at 9 to anchor that hour.  If NBC keeps This Is Us in place, ABC is going to keep Fresh and probably Oneals as sacraficial lambs and move Blackish to Sundays at 8.

[cappoe]

16 minutes ago, Tiger said:

I truly hope those people are out looking for other work because the show isnt coming back.  ABC is literally right now trying to decide which comedies to use as a beachhead on Sundays.  

I have it on good authority that they are looking at different comedy lineups depending on what NBC does with This Is Us.  If NBC moves it, then ABC is going to move Blackish to Tue at 9 to anchor that hour.  If NBC keeps This Is Us in place, ABC is going to keep Fresh and probably Oneals as sacraficial lambs and move Blackish to Sundays at 8.

Even with the fact that this show got a 0.9 on the ratings and was steady with the last episode? That would be silly to end it and not the other shows below it.

And I'm sorry but The Real O'Neals is toast. It's not getting renewed, it's ratings are abysmal.

Edited March 17, 2017 by cappoe

[Tiger]

1 hour ago, cappoe said:

Even with the fact that this show got a 0.9 on the ratings and was steady with the last episode? That would be silly to end it and not the other shows below it.

And I'm sorry but The Real O'Neals is toast. It's not getting renewed, it's ratings are abysmal.

Fresh/ONeals have been going up against monster This Is Us, and the few weeks they havent have shown major improvement.  They also repeat exceptionally well, ABC will get a portion of Fresh syndication revenues and all of ONeals, and lastly ONeals is the only show on tv with a gay lead.  

[General Days]

Sorry. I had a formatting issue and was trying to correct, when the post posted.

Edited March 17, 2017 by General Days

[sharky]

O'Neals is not getting renewed. Their ratings are worse than Once and they air on a weeknight, which has more overall viewers than Sundays. They lost 0.3 this week from their Fresh lead in. Good shows like Fresh can hold their own against This Is Us. O'Neals can't.

After the blood letting on Sunday, I'm thinking Once may have a better chance than before. Time After Time is at 0.6, American Crime had 0.5. I know the Once numbers aren't spectacular, but losing 0.3 from your lead in is not good.  Plus look at the weekly ratings for ABC. Four dramas will get renewed -- Shonda trio and Designated. You're potentially cancelling seven dramas. Seven! That's 14 half hours of comedy, which no one would ever do. You need at least a few drama hours and considering how many died this season, do you want to take a risk? On another network, Once would definitely be on the chopping block. But ABC? Its a hot mess and you can only fix that hot mess with so many comedies and take a risk on so many dramas hoping the new crop doesn't flop. Seriously, think about how many successes and failures ABC drama has had since Once started. For every Scandal, there is a Blood and Oil or Wicked City or 666 Park Ave. or a Kings and Prophets or a Once in Wonderland etc. 

[MadyGirl1987]

2 hours ago, sharky said:

O'Neals is not getting renewed. Their ratings are worse than Once and they air on a weeknight, which has more overall viewers than Sundays. They lost 0.3 this week from their Fresh lead in. Good shows like Fresh can hold their own against This Is Us. O'Neals can't.

After the blood letting on Sunday, I'm thinking Once may have a better chance than before. Time After Time is at 0.6, American Crime had 0.5. I know the Once numbers aren't spectacular, but losing 0.3 from your lead in is not good.  Plus look at the weekly ratings for ABC. Four dramas will get renewed -- Shonda trio and Designated. You're potentially cancelling seven dramas. Seven! That's 14 half hours of comedy, which no one would ever do. You need at least a few drama hours and considering how many died this season, do you want to take a risk? On another network, Once would definitely be on the chopping block. But ABC? Its a hot mess and you can only fix that hot mess with so many comedies and take a risk on so many dramas hoping the new crop doesn't flop. Seriously, think about how many successes and failures ABC drama has had since Once started. For every Scandal, there is a Blood and Oil or Wicked City or 666 Park Ave. or a Kings and Prophets or a Once in Wonderland etc. 

I agree. While I go between whether the show will be cancelled or renewed, and wouldn't be surprised if this is the last season, seeing the state their Sunday line-up is in makes me feel renewal is a very real possibility. While OUAT is not in good shape, it seems their other shows are doing worse. I don't know what is in development, but I doubt they have enough to fill all the gaps in the ratings they have across the week. I also doubt they will want to get rid of all of their Sunday night lineup at once. Then they probably would want a lead-in to help boost any new shows. That means either keeping OUAT(as I doubt AFV would be seen as a strong lead-in) or moving other shows to a shaky night and risk them dropping in ratings. My guess is that, barring any contract issues with the cast, they are going to keep OUAT until they have a show that can anchor the Sunday night line-up, which they probably won't have this fall, based on the state of their other shows, especially their dramas. They can't air only comedies with a few hours of drama and reality/gameshows thrown in the mix.

[Selina K]

While I tend to feel the show is dead, I wonder how comedy viewers cut across football viewers, which lets face it, is the main competition for Once in the fall.  I would tend to think football draws a lot of people who watch comedies, though I am basing this on absolutely nothing.  Once has the appeal of being a show I doubt has a lot of crossover with football viewers. Fox is also competition for comedy viewers on Sunday nights when they are still, I believe, running the Simpsons at 8.  So while comedies may be doing better overall on ABC, it seems like competition would be pretty intense for Sunday night comedy viewers. 

[jhlipton]

17 hours ago, Tiger said:

ONeals is the only show on tv with a gay lead.  

HTGAWM.  Legends of Tomorrow (Sarah is bi, but prefers women).  Modern Family.  
That's just off the top of my head -- I'm sure there are many more.

[sharky]

Supergirl has a lesbian relationship as one of their main ships right now. Either way, that may be a factor but it's only one and it's not a big one. It's not even exclusive to that ABC show. And as we said before, so what? Does that make ABC extra money? Once has an advantage because of its merchandise and convention revenue stream, which none of the comedies have.

Edited March 17, 2017 by sharky

[Eolivet]

18 hours ago, sharky said:

You need at least a few drama hours and considering how many died this season, do you want to take a risk?

I actually think it's the opposite: I think OuaT would be safe on another network that has other hits to prop it up. But on #4 ABC, where very little is working, the only way to fix their ratings is to take a whole bunch of chances. Again, it's the three yards and a cloud of dust for OuaT vs the long bomb down the sidelines that is a new show -- it could be intercepted, incomplete or it could be a completion or even a touchdown. We just don't know.

I would find it baffling that ABC wouldn't choose to take a chance in this situation. They are down by three ratings touchdowns, at least. If I was a network executive ratings coach, I sure as heck wouldn't be saying "But we should just keep running the ball! It's the safe bet."

[Souris]

I love your sports analogies, @Eolivet!

I feel like ABC hasn't decided to cancel it yet, because if they had, they'd be touting "THE FINAL EPISODES!!!" to try to get a ratings boost.

[Tiger]

3 hours ago, sharky said:

Supergirl has a lesbian relationship as one of their main ships right now. Either way, that may be a factor but it's only one and it's not a big one. It's not even exclusive to that ABC show. And as we said before, so what? Does that make ABC extra money? Once has an advantage because of its merchandise and convention revenue stream, which none of the comedies have.

ABC makes jack shit from the conventions; the actors do.  And its merchandise sales is infintesimally fractional compared to the syndication revenue the comedies are (going to) bring in.  They can also repeat the comedies, just like AFV and the alternative/game shows, and some of them get repeat numbers that have 80%+ of new episode numbers.  

 

18 hours ago, MadyGirl1987 said:

I agree. While I go between whether the show will be cancelled or renewed, and wouldn't be surprised if this is the last season, seeing the state their Sunday line-up is in makes me feel renewal is a very real possibility. While OUAT is not in good shape, it seems their other shows are doing worse. I don't know what is in development, but I doubt they have enough to fill all the gaps in the ratings they have across the week. I also doubt they will want to get rid of all of their Sunday night lineup at once. Then they probably would want a lead-in to help boost any new shows. That means either keeping OUAT(as I doubt AFV would be seen as a strong lead-in) or moving other shows to a shaky night and risk them dropping in ratings. My guess is that, barring any contract issues with the cast, they are going to keep OUAT until they have a show that can anchor the Sunday night line-up, which they probably won't have this fall, based on the state of their other shows, especially their dramas. They can't air only comedies with a few hours of drama and reality/gameshows thrown in the mix.

You've just made the argument for why ABC is going to turn the night over to comedy and alternative.  Once has never been able to anchor the night.  And in its six seasons the 9 and 10 slots have seen an endless stream of bombs and at best low-rated fare.  Drama has not worked for ABC on this night since the first season of Once when DH aired 9 and was still pulling decent numbers, though it couldnt hold Once's then-hit numbers.  

[cappoe]

So what is the probability of this show being renewed to being cancelled?

[Camera One]

If the situation is so clearcut and the ratings point to definite cancellation, why wouldn't ABC have announced it yet so they could market this as the end of the series?  That suggests the show does have some value to ABC and/or Disney despite its declining viewership and its inability to anchor the night.  The reasons for cancellation are definitely obvious, so it wouldn't be a surprise.  But there must also be reasons why they are holding back and leaving the option open.

At this point, I feel like Snow White and Prince Charming, with this dark cloud of the Curse aka Cancellation hanging over us, and we are punished for basically doing nothing, because Regina (A&E) and Rumple (ABC) have their own agendas and power struggles.  

Edited March 18, 2017 by Camera One

[sharky]

I agree, @Camera One. As for why they're holding back, ABC had four shows come back/debut around the same time: Once, Time After Time, American Crime, and The Catch. They were/are waiting to see how those shake out and frankly, they didn't shake out well. Then factor Once in compared to other shows on the network. TVbytheNumbers has their Cancel Bear chart, for example. Most of the stuff above Once is comedies, most of the stuff below is dramas. You can't turn the entire network over to comedies and Shonda, so what do you do? You could also move Once to a later slot on Sunday -- based on last Sunday's numbers, it could beat Madam Secretary at 9 (which TAT can't do) or be the first or second rated show overall in the 10pm slot, but I don't know if it's a 10pm show. 

47 minutes ago, Tiger said:

And its merchandise sales is infintesimally fractional compared to the syndication revenue the comedies are (going to) bring in.  They can also repeat the comedies, just like AFV and the alternative/game shows, and some of them get repeat numbers that have 80%+ of new episode numbers.  

The game shows can only do so much. Sure, they're cheap and easy to make, but viewer fatigue sets in quick with those. ABC filled Once's slot with To Tell the Truth back in January -- back to back episodes some weeks in fact -- and it was pulling equal or lower ratings to what Once is getting. Cheaper and easier to make? Sure. But if you don't air them sparingly, ratings suffer.

As for syndication, sure, you can get money from syndication -- if the show belongs to you. ABC owns four of the comedies on its schedule -- two that are performing better than Once and two that are worse. So let's take Real O'Neals. It's owned by ABC, but it's not going to get syndicated anytime soon. It never got a full order for either of its two seasons so you only have 29 episodes that can be syndicated so far. Based on their 15-episode season average, you need around 80 episodes, which would mean the show would need to air for six seasons at least. Plus, you're pulling a 0.8 each week if you're lucky -- and that's in season 2. It doesn't have close to enough episodes and can't even pull decent ratings on the network so why would anyone buy it for syndication? And why would you keep a show like that around?

[ParadoxLost]

2 hours ago, Camera One said:

If the situation is so clearcut and the ratings point to definite cancellation, why wouldn't ABC have announced it yet so they could market this as the end of the series?  That suggests the show does have some value to ABC and/or Disney despite its declining viewership and its inability to anchor the night.  The reasons for cancellation are definitely obvious, so it wouldn't be a surprise.  But there must also be reasons why they are holding back and leaving the option open.

I don't think its odd that they wouldn't have announced that its the final season yet even if the decision to not renew is final.  The only shows I recall having an early announcement of the final seasons are the ones that decided to end it before the season started.

Its premature to start advertising the final X episodes for a show not being renewed based on its performance.  They would do it closer to May sweeps when the ratings really matter.  I don't think its unreasonable for a network to think a show that shouldn't be renewed to be expecting that the same show can't hold lapsed viewers from now until sweeps begin.

[Mathius]

It's too early in 6B for them to start advertising "the final episodes".  That would happen when there's anywhere from 4 to 6 episodes left.

[cappoe]

50 minutes ago, Mathius said:

It's too early in 6B for them to start advertising "the final episodes".  That would happen when there's anywhere from 4 to 6 episodes left.

That's what they did for Revenge. Around the final 6 episodes they started promoting it as the end.

[Tiger]

10 hours ago, sharky said:

I agree, @Camera One. As for why they're holding back, ABC had four shows come back/debut around the same time: Once, Time After Time, American Crime, and The Catch. They were/are waiting to see how those shake out and frankly, they didn't shake out well. Then factor Once in compared to other shows on the network. TVbytheNumbers has their Cancel Bear chart, for example. Most of the stuff above Once is comedies, most of the stuff below is dramas. You can't turn the entire network over to comedies and Shonda, so what do you do? You could also move Once to a later slot on Sunday -- based on last Sunday's numbers, it could beat Madam Secretary at 9 (which TAT can't do) or be the first or second rated show overall in the 10pm slot, but I don't know if it's a 10pm show. 

The game shows can only do so much. Sure, they're cheap and easy to make, but viewer fatigue sets in quick with those. ABC filled Once's slot with To Tell the Truth back in January -- back to back episodes some weeks in fact -- and it was pulling equal or lower ratings to what Once is getting. Cheaper and easier to make? Sure. But if you don't air them sparingly, ratings suffer.

As for syndication, sure, you can get money from syndication -- if the show belongs to you. ABC owns four of the comedies on its schedule -- two that are performing better than Once and two that are worse. So let's take Real O'Neals. It's owned by ABC, but it's not going to get syndicated anytime soon. It never got a full order for either of its two seasons so you only have 29 episodes that can be syndicated so far. Based on their 15-episode season average, you need around 80 episodes, which would mean the show would need to air for six seasons at least. Plus, you're pulling a 0.8 each week if you're lucky -- and that's in season 2. It doesn't have close to enough episodes and can't even pull decent ratings on the network so why would anyone buy it for syndication? And why would you keep a show like that around?

First, the real money in television is in syndication, off-network, and international sales.  Disney is making money with a portion of The Middle's revenues, and it will make 100% of the revenues of Blackish, Housewife, ONeals, and Ken, will get slightly over half od Goldbergs, and will make a portion of Fresh and Speechless.   Speaking exclusivly to Goldbergs and Blackish, ABC Studios, and Sony with Goldbergs, are set to bank when those two go into syndication and off-network soon.  

Which is why the vast majority of ABC's comedy development is either from ABC Studios or a co-prod with another studio.  Networks being able to repeat shows during the year are also big money makers.  Once did not get a syndication or off-network deal.  ABC can't repeat Once.  

Second, even if lets say To Tell the Truth or Match Game equaled the ratings for Once and even if the network couldnt make as much in revenue via commercials, those shows are significantly cheaper than Once so it's still a net gain for the network. 

Third, you didnt address this in your post, but folks shouldnt underestimate that ONeals has thr only gay lead on network tv. Annalise Keating is not gay. And ModFam is an ensemble.  ONeals sole lead is gay.  He does the voiceover.  And the show is tackling 'gay issues' almost every week.  For its season finale this past week they dealt with the lead having a friend kicked out of her house for being gay.  Also, that it goes up against the backhalf of monster This Is Us does matter.  ABC is going to be very careful about what they air against it; Blackish, which as detailed above is 100% owned by Disney, will not be sent there to be damaged.

[TheGreenKnight]

I find it hard to see the purpose of overhauling Sunday night just to have equal numbers to what OUAT is currently delivering. Wouldn't the purpose of an overhaul be to take a chance at doing better?

Edited March 18, 2017 by TheGreenKnight

[Free]

1 hour ago, TheGreenKnight said:

I find it hard to see the purpose of overhauling Sunday night just to have equal numbers to what OUAT is currently delivering. Wouldn't the purpose of an overhaul be to take a chance at doing better?

Given their decline and how their Sundays are already faring, they need to do better.

[cappoe]

You know sometimes I question Tiger but it does seem he was right about the negotiations talks. That it was fake news and just a distraction to steer people off the scent that Bobby was leaving the show and Rumple was being killed off.

So when do we think if this is the last season will they start promoting it as the final season?

[Mathius]

1 hour ago, Free said:

Given their decline and how their Sundays are already faring, they need to do better.

True, but if a new show gives equal numbers to what OUAT is currently giving, that's still an improvement over a hypothetical S7 of OUAT, since it's a given at this point that a S7 of OUAT would deliver worse numbers.

Edited March 18, 2017 by Mathius

[MadyGirl1987]

While Sunday does clearly need work for ABC, it is a question of how they are going to go about it. They could go scorched earth on the night for all new shows or replace the current lineup over time. Whatever they choose will no doubt depend on what show they have in the pipeline and the confidence in those shows.