With the Golden Globes last night, I think Laura Dern has thrown a wrench in Jennifer Lopez's path to Oscar glory. If J.Lo was going to win a major award this season, it would have been the Golden Globes. Laura Dern has been laying the path to world domination the last few years, so I really think the Oscar is hers to lose now.
I think Best Actor is still an open race between Driver and Phoenix. Phoenix has a way of torpedoing his own campaign. We'll see if the SAG shakes this up.
The only way Scarlett Johannson is beating Renee Zellweger is if they can push the "but she already has one!" narrative (although she only has one for supporting and not lead...)
I also think Brad is a lock for Best Supporting at this point, if only due to a lack of competition. Seems like a very mediocre category this year.
I feel like Best Picture/Best Director is still a toss up, but Boon Joon Ho raised a good point in his acceptance speech, that little 1 inch of subtitles is a difficult barrier for foreign films to overcome.