2018 Awards Season

[Dejana]

What will win? Who will be snubbed? Which 2017 prestige projects are shaping up as this year's Seven Pounds or Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, i.e., Oscar hopefuls that belly flop once they are actually shown to people?

Dunkirk comes out next week and the critics/media/Oscar bloggers who've seen it are absolutely losing their minds. They say Nolan is a strong bet to win even if the movie doesn't, which has been happening a lot lately. Given the box office of recent Best Picture winners, it would also be a bit popular for the Academy's tastes these days. :) I wonder what the awards industry would do with itself in the fall and winter, for a July movie to have Best Picture on lock...probably hype up controversies to keep the race exciting (and the clicks coming).

[scarynikki12]

I'm hoping Get Out and The Big Sick get in for screenplay.  I'd love it if both also earned acting, directing and picture nominations but I think those are less likely than screenplay.

[raezen]

I would be interested to see after how diverse the Oscars were this year if there will be a return to a lack in diversity and #Oscarssowhite from before. I hope not.

[kiddo82]

12 hours ago, Dejana said:

Dunkirk comes out next week and the critics/media/Oscar bloggers who've seen it are absolutely losing their minds. They say Nolan is a strong bet to win even if the movie doesn't, which has been happening a lot lately. Given the box office of recent Best Picture winners, it would also be a bit popular for the Academy's tastes these days. :) I wonder what the awards industry would do with itself in the fall and winter, for a July movie to have Best Picture on lock...probably hype up controversies to keep the race exciting (and the clicks coming).

I think one issue (among others) the "season" suffers from is that in order to have seen, or at least be familiar with, the nominees you really have to do your homework.  These aren't necessarily films you're going to see advertisements for nor will they necessarily be playing at the local theater when you're just browsing for something to watch.  You kinda have to seek them out.  It would be interesting to see if it moves the needle for casual fans that the front runner is something most everybody has already seen/formed an opinion on.

Edited July 15, 2017 by kiddo82

[AshleyN]

I'm really looking forward to Dunkirk and the early reactions are definitely exciting, but I remember some over-the-moon early reactions for Interstellar too, before the actual reviews came out and were much more divisive (personally, I loved it), so I'm still a little wary. That being said, when it comes to awards at least, World War II is obviously much more appealing to the Academy than sci-fi, so there's an advantage there. Although, I think I said before that there would be something almost sad to me if a guy who made his name with ambitious genre films* can only break through at the Oscars with a WWII movie.

* And has been somewhat famously overlooked by the Academy for them -- how many other directors have been snubbed three times after receiving DGA nominations? Not to mention, isn't The Dark Knight's Best Picture miss generally considered one of the main motivators for expanding the Best Picture lineup?

Anyways, to me, there are two pretty interesting stories to consider already:

1) What kind of impact the overhaul of Academy membership over the last two years will have. Two years in a row now they've added a record number of new members, meaning the membership has not only gotten younger in a hurry, but there was a focus in particular on making the membership more diverse, with a significant percentage of the new members being women, POC, and/or foreign. A lot of people speculated last year that this helped push Moonlight over the top in the end, and it'll be interesting to see if it affects things this year. Will there be more room for nontraditional contenders like Get Out, and conversely will more traditional Oscar-type films have trouble?

2) The fact that we could actually see multiple contenders released before the last three months of the year. It's common enough to see a token early release in among the nominees, but this year seems unusually heavy on them. Both Dunkirk and Detroit are being released in the summer and look like they should be in the mix based on pedigree and subject matter at least, Get Out isn't exactly a typical Oscar film but it's combination of critical and commercial success could be too much for them to ignore, and now we have The Big Sick coming on strong with great reviews and lots of buzz.

[SeanC]

Based on the trailer for Joe Wright's Darkest Hour, I think we have our frontrunner for the Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling.  Gary Oldman is utterly unrecognizable as Winston Churchill.

[scarynikki12]

1 hour ago, AshleyN said:

isn't The Dark Knight's Best Picture miss generally considered one of the main motivators for expanding the Best Picture lineup?

Anyways, to me, there are two pretty interesting stories to consider already:

1) What kind of impact the overhaul of Academy membership over the last two years will have. Two years in a row now they've added a record number of new members, meaning the membership has not only gotten younger in a hurry, but there was a focus in particular on making the membership more diverse, with a significant percentage of the new members being women, POC, and/or foreign. A lot of people speculated last year that this helped push Moonlight over the top in the end, and it'll be interesting to see if it affects things this year. Will there be more room for nontraditional contenders like Get Out, and conversely will more traditional Oscar-type films have trouble?

2) The fact that we could actually see multiple contenders released before the last three months of the year. It's common enough to see a token early release in among the nominees, but this year seems unusually heavy on them. Both Dunkirk and Detroit are being released in the summer and look like they should be in the mix based on pedigree and subject matter at least, Get Out isn't exactly a typical Oscar film but it's combination of critical and commercial success could be too much for them to ignore, and now we have The Big Sick coming on strong with great reviews and lots of buzz.

Yes, The Dark Knight missing out on Best Picture was the primary reason for the category expansion.  They never confirmed but I think it was probably #6 on the list that year, just missing out, and someone let it slip to the Academy after the outrage on nomination day which then inspired the change.  The fact that Hugh Jackman's opening number specifically referenced its absence, while simultaneously snarking on The Reader (singing he hadn't seen it and implying it took TDK's spot), tells me that there was at least an assumption, if not outright knowledge, that it came super close. 

I do hope that we see more nominations for movies that don't fall into the traditional Oscar bait categories.  The thing about the Oscars is that it inspires what then gets made.  That's why we have actors and studios using biopics, historical, and/or "ugly roles" in depressing dramas for their submissions more than any other category.  Well done comedy, horror and genre movies will be able to earn the "lesser" awards, or maybe an acting or cinematography win at best, but have traditionally not been taken seriously enough to be considered worthy of the "big" awards.  If the new members result in a shift in the types of movies that get nominated AND win then the studios will absolutely follow suit.  At this point in the year I would say that Get Out, The Big Sick, Dunkirk, Wonder Woman, and maybe Logan (based on reviews, I haven't seen it) are the best movies that have been released*.  We aren't into the official Oscar Season yet, and opinions will vary but, if the Best Picture 2018 race included most/all of these movies and one of them actually won it would make the studios take notice.  They wouldn't know what to do at first, since all are non-traditional choices, but studios care about exactly two things: money and awards.  All of these movies are/will make money and if they brought in Oscars as well?  We would start to see a lot more movies in the same vein get made.  Conversely, if the biopics, historical dramas, and "ugly roles" stopped winning Oscars then the studios would reduce the number that gets made. 

*Of this list I think Dunkirk has the best chance of getting a BP nomination but I don't think any of them will.  Get Out and The Big Sick will have a better chance at screenplay, technical and acting, WW will have a chance at technical and Director if it's a bad year, Logan probably doesn't have a chance at all, and Dunkirk will probably get technical and Director if there's a sympathy push for Nolan.  Even with the new members there's still an attitude of what types of movies "deserve" the nominations and wins.  Changing that mindset will take some time but I do think the new members will have a positive effect in general.

[Dejana]

On 7/15/2017 at 6:49 AM, kiddo82 said:

I think one issue (among others) the "season" suffers from is that in order to have seen, or at least be familiar with, the nominees you really have to do your homework.  These aren't necessarily films you're going to see advertisements for nor will they necessarily be playing at the local theater when you're just browsing for something to watch.  You kinda have to seek them out.  It would be interesting to see if it moves the needle for casual fans that the front runner is something most everybody has already seen/formed an opinion on.

The whole season now is a cycle of the reviews leading to nominations, then awards that will serve as publicity to get audiences in theaters, spread out over several weeks. By the time it's all over, several of the Best Picture nominees have very respectable totals, so in that sense awards season is doing its job. Given the squeeze on mid-budget dramas, I suppose it makes more sense for studios to use awards season to sell new movies and that's why there is a glut of prestige titles in the last quarter of the year. It's not like massively popular movies have never won Best Picture and the years for Titanic and Return of the King led to ratings spikes, but those were both December releases. Since 2000, just Gladiator, Crash and The Hurt Locker were in theaters before October, but I wouldn't characterize any of them as immediate Best Picture frontrunners upon release.  With the Oscar blogosphere and social media being what they are, plus the brevity of attention spans in general, I think it would be hard for any movie to stay the #1 contender for more than half a year. Even with the fall/winter release dates, you see momentum shifts away from the presumed Oscar frontrunner, even when it ultimately wins.

 

 

On 7/15/2017 at 2:03 PM, AshleyN said:

I'm really looking forward to Dunkirk and the early reactions are definitely exciting, but I remember some over-the-moon early reactions for Interstellar too, before the actual reviews came out and were much more divisive (personally, I loved it), so I'm still a little wary. That being said, when it comes to awards at least, World War II is obviously much more appealing to the Academy than sci-fi, so there's an advantage there. Although, I think I said before that there would be something almost sad to me if a guy who made his name with ambitious genre films* can only break through at the Oscars with a WWII movie.

* And has been somewhat famously overlooked by the Academy for them -- how many other directors have been snubbed three times after receiving DGA nominations? Not to mention, isn't The Dark Knight's Best Picture miss generally considered one of the main motivators for expanding the Best Picture lineup?

Anyways, to me, there are two pretty interesting stories to consider already:

1) What kind of impact the overhaul of Academy membership over the last two years will have. Two years in a row now they've added a record number of new members, meaning the membership has not only gotten younger in a hurry, but there was a focus in particular on making the membership more diverse, with a significant percentage of the new members being women, POC, and/or foreign. A lot of people speculated last year that this helped push Moonlight over the top in the end, and it'll be interesting to see if it affects things this year. Will there be more room for nontraditional contenders like Get Out, and conversely will more traditional Oscar-type films have trouble?

2) The fact that we could actually see multiple contenders released before the last three months of the year. It's common enough to see a token early release in among the nominees, but this year seems unusually heavy on them. Both Dunkirk and Detroit are being released in the summer and look like they should be in the mix based on pedigree and subject matter at least, Get Out isn't exactly a typical Oscar film but it's combination of critical and commercial success could be too much for them to ignore, and now we have The Big Sick coming on strong with great reviews and lots of buzz.

I've seen discussion of that on the awards and movie forums this week, with many contending that by the comparative stage in the cycle, the jig was up with Interstellar. Apparently, the ecstatic social media reactions were from other directors and industry types and not necessarily critics or voters, who were more tepid ahead of the reviews. Also, people who hated it and Nolan movies in general are acting wowed by Dunkirk, but we'll see on Monday (when the review embargo lifts). When the WWII subject matter was announced, I may have joked that he must really want an Oscar now, but it sounds more like he's brought his sensibilities to the genre than suddenly turned into Tom Hooper.

I saw many theories about Moonlight pulling out the win over La La Land, including that voters weren't so much swayed by all thinkpieces but didn't think it was 14 nominations-good, either, and that Moonlight had a more masculine POV than a colorful musical. The latter development would indicate quite the change from the Brokeback Mountain days but a lot of those AMPAS members who vowed not to watch it are no longer with us.

The new membership will help Get Out, as will Universal giving a good effort with the Oscar campaign, even if they have other contenders later in the year. Expect to see Jordan Peele at lots of screenings and roundtables in the coming months.

 

 

On 7/15/2017 at 2:19 PM, SeanC said:

Based on the trailer for Joe Wright's Darkest Hour, I think we have our frontrunner for the Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling.  Gary Oldman is utterly unrecognizable as Winston Churchill.

Probably, though I kind of love how this category doesn't care about the overall pedigree of a film, just the technical achievement (as it should), so you get Oscar winners Suicide Squad and The Wolfman.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Dejana

[AshleyN]

On 7/15/2017 at 3:33 PM, AshleyN said:

I'm really looking forward to Dunkirk and the early reactions are definitely exciting, but I remember some over-the-moon early reactions for Interstellar too, before the actual reviews came out and were much more divisive (personally, I loved it), so I'm still a little wary.

So, uh, about that...

[kiddo82]

Is it wrong that I'm most stoked that it's only 106 minutes long?  I want to see it but I was fearing a 3 hour long epic.  

[Ms Blue Jay]

Well, now you've made it seem a lot more appealing, @kiddo82

[cpcathy]

I thought for sure it was going to be a slog. Give me a 90 minute film any day and I'm good!

[methodwriter85]

9 hours ago, cpcathy said:

I thought for sure it was going to be a slog. Give me a 90 minute film any day and I'm good!

It was super-confusing until I realized the narrative was non-linear, and then I rolled with it.

It is a good film, and I can see it getting Oscar notice, but it's not going to get much in terms of individual acting notices, except maybe the young lead in a supporting nod as a puff, "Oh hey, let's nominate the newcomer in a supporting nod!" deal. It was a true ensemble- nobody really gets a strong character arc or notice as opposed to something like Hacksaw Ridge.

[Dejana]

7 hours ago, methodwriter85 said:

It was super-confusing until I realized the narrative was non-linear, and then I rolled with it.

It is a good film, and I can see it getting Oscar notice, but it's not going to get much in terms of individual acting notices, except maybe the young lead in a supporting nod as a puff, "Oh hey, let's nominate the newcomer in a supporting nod!" deal. It was a true ensemble- nobody really gets a strong character arc or notice as opposed to something like Hacksaw Ridge.

The reviews seem to be praising Mark Rylance the most--people have been nominated for less but it's a strong year for that category, so it depends on how much the voters go for the movie overall. A couple of the other Dunkirk actors have the "Oscar clip" moments and could have used just one or two more showcase scenes to make a real splash in Supporting Actor.

I think it will run into a certain amount of "good but not that good" backlash and take hits for not being inclusive enough. Still, it was more diverse than The Beguiled!

[AshleyN]

3 hours ago, Dejana said:

The reviews seem to be praising Mark Rylance the most--people have been nominated for less but it's a strong year for that category, so it depends on how much the voters go for the movie overall. A couple of the other Dunkirk actors have the "Oscar clip" moments and could have used just one or two more showcase scenes to make a real splash in Supporting Actor.

I think it will run into a certain amount of "good but not that good" backlash and take hits for not being inclusive enough. Still, it was more diverse than The Beguiled!

I haven't seen the movie yet (hopefully sometime this week), but yeah, the reviews made me think Rylance could have a shot at a "pick out one guy to represent the ensemble" type of nomination, sort of like Alan Arkin for Argo. And Rylance, like Arkin, is a respected veteran who won just a couple of years ago.

As for your second point, I wonder if the early release might actually help there? As in, it might give it time to run through the inevitable backlash and possibly move on to the backlash-to-the-backlash stage of the cycle (lol, awards season is so stupid, and yet I can't seem to look away). Especially since whatever movie(s) ends up being the fall breakout will likely have to deal with its own pushback, especially if it/they becomes too strong, since that's just how this seems to work now.

[starri]

It's a shoo-in for Cinematography though. And probably some of the technical awards, especially for Sound.

[jacksgirl]

Dunkirk so good. I had read up on the movie so I knew about the timeline. Beach was one week, channel was one day and air was one hour. Once I whispered that to hubby, he got it. Highly recommend. 

[Schweedie]

Has Dunkirk really been out long enough for the above to not be a spoiler outside of the film's own thread? I really would've preferred going into it not having seen that.

[Shannon L.]

On 7/14/2017 at 8:33 PM, scarynikki12 said:

I'm hoping Get Out and The Big Sick get in for screenplay.  I'd love it if both also earned acting, directing and picture nominations but I think those are less likely than screenplay.

I wouldn't mind seeing a nomination or two for them. 

I saw something recently (damned if I remember where, though) that said that people were leaving Detroit in tears and some having to leave in the middle to catch their breath.  Seeing that it's a Katheryn Bigelow film and the academy likes her, I'm sure that's a shoo-in. 

[Dejana]

On 7/27/2017 at 6:37 PM, Shannon L. said:

I wouldn't mind seeing a nomination or two for them. 

I saw something recently (damned if I remember where, though) that said that people were leaving Detroit in tears and some having to leave in the middle to catch their breath.  Seeing that it's a Katheryn Bigelow film and the academy likes her, I'm sure that's a shoo-in. 

I've heard it's rather violent and also there are several African-American critics expressing issues with Bigelow's approach. If Detroit gets mired in controversy, it could be more Zero Dark Thirty than The Hurt Locker in terms of Oscar success, or worse, end up forgotten in favor of later contenders.

 

WB planning Best Picture, Best Director campaign for Wonder Woman:
 

Quote

 

This won’t be a cheap endeavor, as the road to the Oscars keeps getting costlier. Big dollars are spent on taking out advertising, making watermarked DVDs, setting screenings, and paying for talent to travel to both coasts, to remind voters how hard they suffered for their craft.

The Oscar race took a turn in 2009, after another Warner. Bros. film, “The Dark Knight,” failed to secure a best picture nomination. In 2010, the Academy expanded its best picture category from five to a maximum of 10 movies. But although blockbusters like “Gravity” and “The Martian” have made the cut, a comic book movie has yet to compete in the top race.

That’s because the Academy is still too stodgy to recognize Batman or Deadpool as art. But Warner Bros. executives have been wondering if new membership expansions, which have increased the voting body to include younger members and more diversity, will boost “Wonder Woman’s” chances. (Among the new class of voters is star Gal Gadot, who will presumably support this mission.)

The studio’s efforts will include reintroducing the film this fall, to scarce few who may not have seen it. Insiders report strong reactions to the screening of “Wonder Woman” at the Academy, as it’s been championed by a liberal Hollywood and a reinvigorated wave of feminism in response to Donald Trump. But the movie’s glow could diminish if the mashup tentpole “Justice League,” which comes out in November and co-stars Gadot, gets ripped to shreds by harsh reviews.

 

The story goes on to say that WB will still be campaigning Dunkirk and Nolan as well. I figure they want a second movie in the race at Oscar time. but are wary of Blade Runner 2049's prospects beyond the technical categories and have completely written off The 15:17 to Paris once Eastwood insisted on casting the soldiers as themselves.

[methodwriter85]

On 7/30/2017 at 4:03 PM, Dejana said:

I've heard it's rather violent and also there are several African-American critics expressing issues with Bigelow's approach. If Detroit gets mired in controversy, it could be more Zero Dark Thirty than The Hurt Locker in terms of Oscar success, or worse, end up forgotten in favor of later contenders.

 

WB planning Best Picture, Best Director campaign for Wonder Woman:
 

The story goes on to say that WB will still be campaigning Dunkirk and Nolan as well. I figure they want a second movie in the race at Oscar time. but are wary of Blade Runner 2049's prospects beyond the technical categories and have completely written off The 15:17 to Paris once Eastwood insisted on casting the soldiers as themselves.

I loved Wonder Woman but Best Picture? Really? C'mon.

Eastwood's stunt could go either really, really badly, or actually work out. I hope they do a lot of work with these guys because it'd be embarrassing as hell for everyone involved if this goes badly. Theresa Saldana (R.I.P.) did a wonderful job in the t.v. movie about her stalking, stabbing, and subsequent recovery but y'know, she was an actress.

[SeanC]

The first reviews of the fall's prestige offerings are starting to come out of Venice and Telluride.

Gary Oldman looks to be locked and loaded for the Best Actor race.

On the Actress side, a lot of praise for Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), and Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes), among others.  Hawkins' film seems potentially too weird for the Academy, but you never know (particularly since it'd be a performance rather than the film itself).

Edited September 3, 2017 by SeanC

[AshleyN]

17 hours ago, SeanC said:

The first reviews of the fall's prestige offerings are starting to come out of Venice and Telluride.

Gary Oldman looks to be locked and loaded for the Best Actor race.

On the Actress side, a lot of praise for Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), and Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes), among others.  Hawkins' film seems potentially too weird for the Academy, but you never know (particularly since it'd be a performance rather than the film itself).

Looks like we can add Frances McDormand to that actress list. But yeah, Best Actress could turn into a bloodbath. There's also Annette Bening and Judi Dench, who's films haven't been received as enthusiastically but are both big names in famous person biopics, which means they probably shouldn't be counted out. Plus there are three huge names yet to be seen in Meryl Streep (in a freaking Spielberg movie), Kate Winslet (in a Woody Allen movie), and Jennifer Lawrence.

Obviously I haven't seen any of the films yet, but I kind of love the idea of Best Actress winner Sally Hawkins, just because she seems so out of the mold for that category. Best Actress, moreso than any other acting category even, really seems to have as much or more to do with personal narrative as performance. If you look at the recent winners there they almost all fall into two categories: up-and-coming ingenue or powerhouse (and often "overdue") veteran. Hawkins winning for what would be (according to the early reviews at least) something as simple as a great (if underappreciated) actress giving a great performance in a great movie sounds as refreshing as it does unlikely.

On another note, Supporting Actor looks like it could be turning into a battle of the underawarded character actors (Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell, Michael Stuhlbarg, possibly Michael Shannon or Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water) which could be fun.

Edited September 4, 2017 by AshleyN

[DollEyes]

Afternoon seeing/loving Detroit , I not only wouldn't be surprised if co-stars John Boyega & Will Poulter, director Kathryn Bigelow  & the film got Oscar nominations, I'd be thrilled.

[vb68]

On 9/3/2017 at 7:49 PM, SeanC said:

 Hawkins' film seems potentially too weird for the Academy, but you never know (particularly since it'd be a performance rather than the film itself).

That may be an interesting test for the newer, younger membership.  Just from what I've  read, I agree it would be a tough sell to the older, more traditional  membership of years past.

On 9/4/2017 at 1:12 PM, AshleyN said:

There's also Annette Bening and Judi Dench, who's films haven't been received as enthusiastically but are both big names in famous person biopics, which means they probably shouldn't be counted out.

And Bening in particular is really due. I would expect her to campaign hard.  I think she's thirsty as the kids like to say.

On 9/4/2017 at 1:12 PM, AshleyN said:

Plus there are three huge names yet to be seen in Meryl Streep (in a freaking Spielberg movie)

 And Spielberg's film sounds very relevant in this politically charged environment. Just saying.  I think that indirectly helped Moonlight last year.  

Edited September 9, 2017 by vb68

[SeanC]

The Shape of Water collected the Golden Lion at the Venice festival; promising start for it, even if I think it'll need real passion votes to go anywhere in the race.

Molly's Game has been getting raves out of TIFF, so put Jessica Chastain onto the Best Actress longlist now.  Aaron Sorkin would seem like another screenplay contender.

Best Actor feels kind of empty at the moment, as we're waiting on so many contenders.

[AshleyN]

21 hours ago, SeanC said:

The Shape of Water collected the Golden Lion at the Venice festival; promising start for it, even if I think it'll need real passion votes to go anywhere in the race.

Molly's Game has been getting raves out of TIFF, so put Jessica Chastain onto the Best Actress longlist now.  Aaron Sorkin would seem like another screenplay contender.

Best Actor feels kind of empty at the moment, as we're waiting on so many contenders.

Yeah, it really feels like all of the buzz coming out of the festivals surrounds Actress contenders and their vehicles. Even the expected raves for Gary Oldman kind of came and went in a hurry. I know there are Actor contenders to come, but is it too much to hope that this might not just give us a strong Best Actress race, but maybe even a few female-led Picture contenders? The last female-led movie to win Best Picture was Million Dollar Baby thirteen years ago, which is frankly outrageous. And the only ones to even get close really are Gravity and La La Land (which was a co-lead situation with a dude).

I also wonder if this keeps up could it open the door for Timothee Chalamet? Both his film and his performance have gotten major raves, but unlike Best Actress, the Best Actor category traditionally does not care for young actors. According to Wikipedia, Chalamet would be the third youngest nominee ever, and youngest since 1939, so he'll probably need some help courtesy of a weak category to get there.

[methodwriter85]

I feel like in his case, they'd pull category fraud and push him for Best Supporting actor, like what happened to Timothy Hutton. (He DID get the win, but I wish he had actually gotten recognized as a Best Actor nominee instead.)

[AshleyN]

20 minutes ago, methodwriter85 said:

I feel like in his case, they'd pull category fraud and push him for Best Supporting actor, like what happened to Timothy Hutton. (He DID get the win, but I wish he had actually gotten recognized as a Best Actor nominee instead.)

It's possible I guess, but everything I've read about Call Me By Your Name makes it seem like Chalamet is very much THE lead, it's his character's story, and that if either of the main pairing could be pushed supporting it would be Armie Hammer. Plus, the film already has an actual supporting contender in Michael Stuhlbarg. But then again if Hailee Steinfeld could be considered supporting for True Grit I guess anything is possible...

[methodwriter85]

Have you ever seen Ordinary People? It's an absolute farce that they tried to say Timothy Hutton was anything but the lead.

[Irlandesa]

3 hours ago, AshleyN said:

It's possible I guess, but everything I've read about Call Me By Your Name makes it seem like Chalamet is very much THE lead, it's his character's story, and that if either of the main pairing could be pushed supporting it would be Armie Hammer.

That's what I've read as well.  In fact, on prediction sites, Chalamet is in the lead category and Armie in supporting.  That could change but I would think the studio would be trying to steer their narrative while it's hitting the festival circuit.  They're doing the opposite.

I immediately booked it for my screening series at the time, something Chalamet recalled at last night’s premiere party. SPC’s co-president Michael Barker is hoping for a Best Actor Oscar nomination for him, and will probably get it.

Edited September 10, 2017 by Irlandesa

[Dejana]

4 hours ago, AshleyN said:

It's possible I guess, but everything I've read about Call Me By Your Name makes it seem like Chalamet is very much THE lead, it's his character's story, and that if either of the main pairing could be pushed supporting it would be Armie Hammer. Plus, the film already has an actual supporting contender in Michael Stuhlbarg. But then again if Hailee Steinfeld could be considered supporting for True Grit I guess anything is possible...

Blatant category fraud with child actors is an easier sell when there's a much bigger star the studio can play off as the "real" lead: a Jeff Bridges or Bruce Willis. Nobody bought Keisha Castle-Hughes as a supporting actress because her co-stars were equally unknown actors and a whale. I can't remember if they ever tried a BSA push with Quevenzhané Wallis but again, another case where the surrounding cast wasn't particularly famous either.

Young adult performances are trickier because it clearly isn't a little kid, where some people will make a case that the child wasn't acting so much as following cues from the director. With guys, though, there's a feeling that they have time and can wait their turn to be award-worthy leading men. 

The category fraud probably worked with Timothy Hutton because of general age biases, as well as his onscreen parents being Donald Sutherland and Mary Tyler Moore, the latter in a clear leading role. Call Me By Your Name is a romance/coming of age story with the parents relegated to supporting roles. Armie Hammer is better known than Chamalet but not hugely esteemed, plus Timothée has more screen time and is getting better reviews. He's also in Lady Bird playing a very different sort of character, as well as Hostiles (if it comes out in 2017), which will help build a case for it being his breakout year that should be rewarded with a Best Actor nomination. If Oldman gets a bunch of #1 votes as the runaway frontrunner, times like that help other hopefuls in the category who have a small band of passionate supporters and CMBYM seems raved enough to manage that.

 

I really like Nolan but it will be hilarious to me if he loses Best Director for Dunkirk to Guillermo del Toro with his woman/sea creature sci-fi love story.

Edited September 10, 2017 by Dejana

[starri]

A straight guy getting nominated for playing a gay guy?  How unexpected.

[methodwriter85]

2 hours ago, starri said:

A straight guy getting nominated for playing a gay guy?  How unexpected.

I'm just happy that by all accounts the two go beyond the hug of gayness and maybe just a tiny little peck on the lips.

[Irlandesa]

Based on the book, I've always felt they were both bi. 

[vb68]

5 hours ago, Dejana said:

The category fraud probably worked with Timothy Hutton because of general age biases, as well as his onscreen parents being Donald Sutherland and Mary Tyler Moore, the latter in a clear leading role.

I still to this day wish she had won. I'm not dismissing Sissy Spacek, but that was Mary's one chance and she was such a revelation.  It's a performance I always look back on.  I guess it feels even more wistful for me with her passing this year.

[SeanC]

5 hours ago, Dejana said:

I really like Nolan but it will be hilarious to me if he loses Best Director for Dunkirk to Guillermo del Toro with his woman/sea creature sci-fi love story.

This may just be my personal reaction, but while I expect Dunkirk has a pretty solid chance of getting Nolan his first Directing nomination, I have a hard time imagining it inspiring the kind of passion that would be needed to actually collect Picture or Director.  It seems likely to bag a few tech prizes, since Nolan's coordination of those elements is masterful as ever.

[vb68]

17 minutes ago, SeanC said:

This may just be my personal reaction, but while I expect Dunkirk has a pretty solid chance of getting Nolan his first Directing nomination, I have a hard time imagining it inspiring the kind of passion that would be needed to actually collect Picture or Director. 

And I could be completely wrong about this too, but I think the passion be would for Nolan to win personally. I mean it may or may not happen, but I can already see that narrative forming. It reminds me of Scorsese finally winning for The Departed. I don't know how many people were inspired by that film on it's own.  ( And I'm not trying to say Nolan is as due as Scorsese was or anything. It's just a similar situation in my mind.) 

Edited September 11, 2017 by vb68

[Dejana]

2 hours ago, vb68 said:

And I could be completely wrong about this too, but I think the passion be would for Nolan to win personally. I mean it may or may not happen, but I can already see that narrative forming. It reminds me of Scorsese finally winning for The Departed. I don't know how many people were inspired by that film on it's own.  ( And I'm not trying to say Nolan is as due as Scorsese was or anything. It's just a similar situation in my mind.) 

Just last week, I was listening to a podcast where those Oscars were being discussed. The consensus was that maybe The Departed wasn't Scorsese's best, but considering the other nominees, he and the movie still would have won, even without the make-good baggage. The contenders that year...

 

Best Picture:

Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

 

Best Director:

Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

 

Maybe if Marty had already won before, they go big for The Queen? The King's Speech won Picture and Director but the stakes included a looming war and a protagonist overcoming a disability, plus it was also about a man, which sadly makes AMPAS more likely to see it as "important".  Little Miss Sunshine, but for a Best Picture winner, it is kind of quirky/comedic/slight, and it missed a nomination in Director. The nomination was the reward for a movie about Iwo Jima from the Japanese perspective, in Japanese. Babel? I really doubt it, and a lone director nominee doesn't usually win, either.

 

So much can happen before Oscar nominations come out and a lot of these movies raved in the festival bubble might disappoint or run into "controversy", but this upcoming year seems much stronger in Picture and Director and I don't know if an "overdue" narrative alone will be enough.

Edited September 11, 2017 by Dejana

[JBC344]

Yeah, I never understood the "controversy" over Marty winning for "The Departed", which I personally thought was well deserved.  No, its not his best movie but what does that have to do with anything.  Unless you think that someone else was legitimately robbed, Marty being forced to compete with his own history just seems so ridiculous.

[AshleyN]

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri wins the Audience Award at TIFF, which in recent years has been a virtual guarantee of at least a nomination for Best Picture. The runners-up were I, Tonya and Call Me By Your Name.

Interesting that neither The Shape of Water or Lady Bird even managed to place since both films seemed to have a ton of buzz throughout the festivals. Not winning might be a blessing in disguise for The Shape of Water though, this way it avoids having a target put on its back too early, and it feels like the type of film that would fare better as an underdog than as the frontrunner anyway. It may be slightly concerning about Lady Bird though -- a female coming-of-age dramedy is probably going to have an uphill climb with the Academy anyway so it probably could have used this boost.

Edited September 17, 2017 by AshleyN

[Irlandesa]

On 9/17/2017 at 5:41 PM, AshleyN said:

nteresting that neither The Shape of Water or Lady Bird even managed to place since both films seemed to have a ton of buzz throughout the festivals.

I read that there was some sort of glitch with this award and it was handed out by a panel this year because the app didn't work.  I know very little about how the audience awards are handed out and maybe every year there's the panel award and an actual audience vote award but I wonder if that will affect the predicative ability of this award on Oscar chances.

[AshleyN]

11 hours ago, Irlandesa said:

I read that there was some sort of glitch with this award and it was handed out by a panel this year because the app didn't work.  I know very little about how the audience awards are handed out and maybe every year there's the panel award and an actual audience vote award but I wonder if that will affect the predicative ability of this award on Oscar chances.

Interesting. Do you know where you read that? I Googled and didn't see anything, and I feel like it's a story the trades would have picked up.

Anyways, the Audience Award at TIFF is definitely a boost for the winner -- or perhaps just an indication that the film that wins has widespread appeal -- but it's not the be all end all. After all, Moonlight also failed to place in the top 3 last year.

Edited September 19, 2017 by AshleyN

[Irlandesa]

12 hours ago, AshleyN said:

Interesting. Do you know where you read that? I Googled and didn't see anything, and I feel like it's a story the trades would have picked up.

Yes. I was wrong about the panel--other than they do the math since the winners are based on percentages.  But I saw talk on Twitter and another board that there was a glitch in the app where not all films were available to be voted on that way for at least a few days. 

So it probably didn't rise being worth discussing in trades considering how it's still a pretty informal people's vote.

[SeanC]

On 9/17/2017 at 7:41 PM, AshleyN said:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri wins the Audience Award at TIFF, which in recent years has been a virtual guarantee of at least a nomination for Best Picture. The runners-up were I, Tonya and Call Me By Your Name.

I wouldn't necessarily have pegged Three Billboards as a crowd pleaser, so that's a strong sign for its prospects.

[SeanC]

The trailer for Paul Thomas Anderson's The Phantom Thread has me provisionally penciling that in as the frontrunner for Best Costume Design.  Making the movie about a period fashion designer is a surefire way to get people who like the movie to put Costume Design as one of the categories they'll lobby for it in.

[kiddo82]

I saw Lady Bird today and I'd be disappointed if Laurie Metcalf doesn't at least get a nomination.

[BetterButter]

Laugh riot Get Out will compete as a comedy at this year's Golden Globes

[methodwriter85]

I could see Get Out counting as a black comedy. It does have a sardonic edge to it.

[Dejana]

On the awards sites I visit, it's been the general assumption all year that Get Out would compete in the Musical/Comedy categories at the Golden Globes. Some skepticism but the predictions accounted for GO and its actors in Comedy (much) more often than not. The Golden Globes don't have Horror/Thriller/Satire categories, so... 

Edited November 15, 2017 by Dejana