Speculation for True Detective

[blixie]

Please feel free to change the title! I need a place to speculate since unlike last season I'm really fascinated by the *mystery* and conspiracies this year of who killed Caspere and why. 

 

So far we have Frank, who has liquidated and vested his entire Vinci holdings to purchase 12 parcels of new rail adjacent land "south of Monterey". Caspere brokered the deal between Semyon and the land holding company Catalyst, but died before making the final payment (or so says the Catalyst representative). For me this means Frank likely had nothing to do with Caspere's murder, while Catalyst very likely could have. 

 

All I know is Frank is major fucked (the Russians backed out on him, Caspere was murdered, and the Mayor is threatening to partner with other outside interests re: the Vinci underworld). He seems the most legitimately interested in really solving who killed Caspere and more importantly what happened to his 5 million bucks, so he can get his land deal/legitimacy back on track.

 

My working theory right now is that Catalyst wanted and needed Caspere dead, and they put it to the Mayor to take care of it, and the Mayor in turn had his son do the deed, because his son was close to Caspere via their shared creepy destroyer sexual proclivities. My only question is what their motive was, something Caspere found out about the land deal/Catalyst? Or did they just want Frank to stay in his lane/caste, aka doing their bidding in Vinci?

 

 

[Jextella]

Please feel free to change the title! I need a place to speculate since unlike last season I'm really fascinated by the *mystery* and conspiracies this year of who killed Caspere and why. 

 

So far we have Frank, who has liquidated and vested his entire Vinci holdings to purchase 12 parcels of new rail adjacent land "south of Monterey". Caspere brokered the deal between Semyon and the land holding company Catalyst, but died before making the final payment (or so says the Catalyst representative). For me this means Frank likely had nothing to do with Caspere's murder, while Catalyst very likely could have. 

 

All I know is Frank is major fucked (the Russians backed out on him, Caspere was murdered, and the Mayor is threatening to partner with other outside interests re: the Vinci underworld). He seems the most legitimately interested in really solving who killed Caspere and more importantly what happened to his 5 million bucks, so he can get his land deal/legitimacy back on track.

 

My working theory right now is that Catalyst wanted and needed Caspere dead, and they put it to the Mayor to take care of it, and the Mayor in turn had his son do the deed, because his son was close to Caspere via their shared creepy destroyer sexual proclivities. My only question is what their motive was, something Caspere found out about the land deal/Catalyst? Or did they just want Frank to stay in his lane/caste, aka doing their bidding in Vinci?

Good Gawd! I'm finding this whole storyline to be completely confusing.  I appreciate this post a TON.  I'll rewatch and maybe now I'll be able to track things better! 

 

For now, the only thing I have going in the way of speculation is that the person who shot Colin Farrell is small-framed and the upper boy ad arms look like those of a female.

[TudorQueen]

This will probably strike everyone as completely insane, but...
Ray Velcoro's name sounds a lot like 'Velcro', to which everything sticks. So I'm worried that Velcoro will become the scapegoat for the real culprits.

 

BTW, don't change the title - I love it. But then, big "Chinatown" fan here.
 

[blixie]

 

So I'm worried that Velcoro will become the scapegoat for the real culprits.

 

Yeah I think the state focusing on Ray AND Frank are supposed to be the bone Vinci/Catalyst are throwing to make it look like Vinci is cleaned up, the Mayor keeps harping on how the State thing is going to wrap up/go away and Ray needs to give them a gift wrapped killer that is solely to do with Capsere's personal peccadilloes. The mayor said the same thing to Frank, that he could go tell his story to the State but they wouldn't give a shit and the money being made in Vinci would keep eveyrone's world turning.

[Cardie]

I also keep calling him Ray Velcro too but wonder if that which sticks is the murders leading back to him and the deal he made with Frank to get the name of his wife's rapist. That would mean the corruption and the missing money are red herrings as far as the murders go. Or at least that Caspere's perversions tie into those of the rapist of Ray's wife; nor am I sure that Frank told the truth about that guy being the rapist.

[MyPeopleAreNordic]

I'm suspicious of Frank's wife, Jordan. I haven't worked out my theory/theories past that.

[paigow]

The killer(s) have no intention in framing Frank and / or Ray. Maybe expose them for the rapist / fall guy murder, but not for Caspere. Hard to believe that Frank's wife would bankrupt him and want to carry his baby.

[shapeshifter]

...Hard to believe that Frank's wife would bankrupt him and want to carry his baby.

I've been wondering if the IVF is about "accidentally on purpose" having her egg fertilized with someone else's sperm, or someone else's egg etc. It would be a ridiculously convoluted plot, which is why I haven't suggested it earlier, but it's the only thing I could think of that would explain the portrayal of her sly shiftiness.

[blixie]

 

The killer(s) have no intention in framing Frank and / or Ray.

 

No one said they were being framed for Caspere's murder.

[Jextella]

Anyway...as to the "mystery"...there are two, really, correct?  Who killed Caspere and who shot Velcoro?  They must be related 'cause Velcoro's shooting took place at a place Caspere went to.  If that is where Caspere died, and the killing had to do with money/land, why all the creepy stuff?  Seems completely unnecessary. And why not kill Velcoro?  Maybe just to scare him?

I suppose we should ask who wanted Caspere dead in the first place?  Who had the motive.  I'm having a hard time following the story and can't really seem to pinpoint that.  One other question....Ray finds Caspere's house a day or two after they find his body, is that correct?  There was blood on the floor and assuming that was Caspere's, not much time has gone by.

 

My take on things SO FAR....

 

Velcoro's shooter

• the person who shot Velcoro is a corrupt cop (basing on the fact that they said the gun was of the kind police use).  He/she is at Caspere's house keeping an eye on things until the dust settles.  He/she wore the raven head for anonymoty purposes - not any sort of cultlike thing.  He/she recognized Ray as a cop and needed *something* to hid his identity.  He doesn't kill him because either he didn't have the appropriate weaponry or because he didn't want to mae more waves.
• The person was small framed and from that I can only guess it's Ari's partner or Paul. I'm leaning towards Paul.
• As to why a cop would be involved in such a thing....maybe money to help his mom.  I'm also getting a wierd vibe from his girlfriend.  It was intersting that Ari's boss said that "no woman in her right mind would marry a cop".  This could mean a bunch of things ... or nothing at all, but could be related to Paul's girlfriend. 

 

Caspere's killer

• Motive seems to be all over the place. So who knows
• Frank is the only one who benefits from Caspere's living.  But, this in itself makes me wonder.  Frank really doesn't have much of an in-depth story line where Caspere is concerned.   He earned money as a criminal, invested it with Caspere, and now Caspere is dead.  He's trying to earn money to get back into the game using his old criminal tactics.  We haven't seen him deal much with politicians - other than to be told he's out of the game.  Nothing super complex going on here ... so why the story in the first place?  Seems like a whole lot of filler - unless there is something coming down the pike we aren't aware of yet.

 

Anyway, just random thoughts.

[MyPeopleAreNordic]

Velcoro's shooter

[*]The person was small framed and from that I can only guess it's Ari's partner or Paul. I'm leaning towards Paul.

The person definitely wasn't as tall as Vince Vaughn (who is 6'5") and was thin/fit but I really couldn't tell if he/she was a smaller framed than the average person, if that makes sense. I didn't get a good read on how tall the shooter was but it was evident he/she was thin or fit.

Ani's partner, Elvis, played by Michael Irby, is smaller than average for a guy - he says he's 5'6" and his weight hovers between 145-150 lbs. https://twentyminuteswithbecca.wordpress.com/2008/03/24/why-we-like-mike/ I noticed how tiny he was because I know Rachel McAdams isn't very tall and he doesn't look much bigger than her when they are in scenes together.

I'm not so sure Taylor Kitsch (Paul) qualifies as small framed. He's 6'0" according to an interview with Men's Health (http://www.menshealth.com/celebrity-fitness/celebrity/taylor-kitsch). I can't find an exact weight, but numbers I see around the Internet for his current/"normal" weight are around 178lbs (in 2010 he lost like 30 lbs for a movie role, but gained them back). 178lbs at 6'0" would definitely make him lean and fit, but I don't think I'd classify him as "small framed" at all, especially since he has a couple inches on the average white American man, who (per Google) is around 5'10" (Funnily enough, Google shows that Colin Farrell is the same height as the average white American man as he's 5'10," so Kitsch is taller than Farrell.)

ETA: Google tells me that Kelly Reilly, who plays Frank's wife Jordan, is the same height as Ani's partner Elvis (5'6"). So if one thinks the shooter is around Elvis's height (and again, I couldn't really tell how tall the shooter was compared to Ray & I'm not willing to watch it again to see if I can), I suppose Jordan should be considered for the shooter as well. I also googled David Morse (Ani's dad) and he's even taller than Taylor Kitsch - he's 6'4."

/resists urge to google heights of actors playing Frank's minions, the Russians, & other characters

Edited July 13, 2015 by MyPeopleAreNordic

[Cardie]

The murderer is out to ruin Frank but seems too fetishistically sadistic to be in it only for the money. I've seen nothing of anyone besides Caspere himself that suggests that sort of person. I guess we need a glimpse of one of those private sex parties. I wonder if Ani will make her sister go to get intel.

[Jextella]

The murderer is out to ruin Frank but seems too fetishistically sadistic to be in it only for the money. I've seen nothing of anyone besides Caspere himself that suggests that sort of person. I guess we need a glimpse of one of those private sex parties. I wonder if Ani will make her sister go to get intel.

 

I glossed over any references to someone wanting to ruin Frank....I've glossed over most of the story; can't seem to follow....so thank you for this!  With the murder of Stan, I buy it.   No reason to kill him if someone didn't view Frank as a threat.  Who would benefit most by Frank being out of the game?

 

The fetishistically sadistic angle also seems plausible to, but agree that we haven't seen anyone other than Caspere be that way.    Maybe it's sadism only at play by some really violent criminal but not much to do with fetishes.  Some of the criminals can be really violent, e.g. Frank pulling teeth out of a guy's mouth is pretty sadistic.

 

Taylor Kitsch is 5'11 3/4" according to IMDB so yeah...maybe he's not as small framed as I thought!

Edited July 13, 2015 by Jextella

[DarkRaichu]

I think the shootout served multiple purpose:

1. The higher up made it more difficult for Frank to open up his new club which is only a few blocks away from the shootout.  There would be way too many cops in the area for several weeks / months to make his shady nightclub successful
2. Higher up killed the protesters who were against the railroad development.
3. They were trying to kill off the task force that was getting too close to their secret (land) dealings

[magdalene]

It would have never occured to me that Paul might be the one to shoot Ray.  Taylor Kitsch isn't a small guy at all. He was very convincing as a foot ball player in FNL.

[LilaFowler]

The solution is right under your nose. -S1

 

I feel like the whole highway deal was some elaborate scam and Caspere had figured that out.  Otherwise why have the scene about the land being contaminated and people leaving the area?  I don't know what role Caspere's sexual proclivities play in the whole thing.  I do think that the Mexican drug ring was probably framed--a box of Caspere's stuff probably showed up on their doorstep and the girl was told to pawn it--and they were definitely tipped off.  Not sure who would benefit from wiping them out.  A dirty politician who is in deep with a rival cartel?  Kill two birds with one stone?

 

I think the problem that I have with this season is that the mystery isn't terribly compelling.  The Yellow King was killing women and children for decades.  I get that.  This season, a corrupt guy got himself killed, and?

[Jextella]

Just a few thoughts based on some things in the first episode.

 

I think the killer of Caspere is in fact the same person who shot Ray based on clothing, shoes, and body shape.  He/she is a fairly small-framed person based on what was shown when Ray was shot.  And, he/she struggled a bit to drag Caspere's body from the car to th bunch.  Someone posted somewhere in this topic (sorry, can't remember where I saw it) that the killer "waddled".  He/she did have to waddle a bit to to pull the weight of Caspere's body.  Seems like it wouldn't be that hard for a larger person. Altough, Caspere's body was in a position as if he had been sitting for awhile when I believe rigor mortis had set in. This probably made dragging him a little more difficult since the body wasn't very flexible.

[Crim]

I do think that the Mexican drug ring was probably framed--a box of Caspere's stuff probably showed up on their doorstep and the girl was told to pawn it--and they were definitely tipped off.  Not sure who would benefit from wiping them out.  A dirty politician who is in deep with a rival cartel?  Kill two birds with one stone?

It could have been rivalry, but I don't think wiping them out was necessarily the purpose. They were served up as the solution for the case. Between this and the cops leading the investigation being dead, it'd be all over. In fact, they might still get shut down, even if they are suspicious, and it would play just like season 1 when they didn't get the Yellow King the first time. I hope not, because it seems gimmicky now. They would be have to be reassembled as a team (and this season is slow as it is) and what exactly would connect new murders to Caspere? So far they aren't aware of a pattern.

[MyPeopleAreNordic]

I was pondering the prevalence of redheads in this season: Jordan, Blake (Frank's henchman who was MIA), Ivar (Russian), and Chad (Ray's son). Then I remembered another character who is a redhead and it made me pause....Caspere's assistant. IMDB says the character's name is Erica Johnson and she's played by Courtney Halverson (there's a pic here if you don't remember the character - http://www.imdb.com/media/rm3096701440/nm1237541?ref_=nm_phs_md_1).

It made me think about where we've seen her character. The detectives first interviews her after Caspere's death and then they ran into her again on the movie set when they were looking for the car. Now I'm suspicious of her.....but I haven't gotten much farther than that as to my theory about what she may be up to....

[Mindymoo]

I was pondering the prevalence of redheads in this season: Jordan, Blake (Frank's henchman who was MIA), Ivar (Russian), and Chad (Ray's son). Then I remembered another character who is a redhead and it made me pause....Caspere's assistant. IMDB says the character's name is Erica Johnson and she's played by Courtney Halverson (there's a pic here if you don't remember the character - http://www.imdb.com/media/rm3096701440/nm1237541?ref_=nm_phs_md_1).

It made me think about where we've seen her character. The detectives first interviews her after Caspere's death and then they ran into her again on the movie set when they were looking for the car. Now I'm suspicious of her.....but I haven't gotten much farther than that as to my theory about what she may be up to....

Perhaps the whole thing is a conspiracy of gingers wanting to take over the LA transit system?

[Jextella]

agree with those who suggest that some are targeting Frank ... also agree with the poster above who suggests Frank AND Ray. 
 

After rewatching some of the first episode, there is a scene in which Ray shows an attorney he bought a digital recorder to record and share conversations with the kid.  He said something like "buck" or maybe it was "doc" said it might be good for them.

 

But who uses a digital recorder for this kind thing - esp. with cell phones, the internet, etc.  It made no sense to me .... enough to think we may see the recorder come into play down the road.  Or, it could be nothing a la S1.

Edited July 16, 2015 by Jextella

[paigow]

Hate to keep harping on the small size of the killer, but another possible suspect could be  the kid's mom's boyfriend/husband...whatever he is.  He has a smaller body frame.

Venn diagram... People that hate Frank...People that hate Ray...People that hate Frank & Ray. I can't see any reason for the husband (Richard) to attack Ray. Why make Ray a sympathetic / hero figure prior to a custody case? I have not seen anything that links Richard & Frank, so why would Richard kill Caspere and NOT kill Ray.

 

Is the Mayor's lakeside cabin where all the Eyes Wide Shut orgies occur?

[Jextella]

The solution is right under your nose. -S1

Bears repeating, me thinks.

Ok.  Here's another idea ... the reporter.  His picture was pretty seedy looking - nothing like the polished reporters we see on tv.  The fact that he wrote an article could have much to do with much, e.g. paid to redirect attention; bribery, etc. 

 

Seems odd that they would even show us a picture of him if he didn't figure into this thing a litte more.  Just knowing about the article - and that Frank beat him up would be sufficient if his role stopped after the beating.

Also another example of how someone is out to get Frank. We learn in ep1 that Frank doesn't like the article because it could lead to further investigation which could put him at risk.

Edited July 16, 2015 by Jextella

[Cardie]

Although the corruption plot has come into focus a little bit more, Birdman, the presumptive murderer, remains elusive. Who are people's top suspects and their supposed motives?

 

My top three:

1) Blake Churchman, the red-haired assistant Frank has Ray follow

2) Detective Burris/James Frain

3)and as a long shot the set photographer hanging around when the police visit (in case the killer is as obscure as Lawnmower Man)

 

From the beginning I've thought that Birdman has some connection to the faux rapist Frank sent Ray to kill and that's still my top guess at a motive. Whatever the motive, however, I think it's personal against Frank and not a way o covering up corruption like the "accident" that killed the new owner of the waste management firm.

[shapeshifter]

Although the corruption plot has come into focus a little bit more, Birdman, the presumptive murderer, remains elusive. Who are people's top suspects and their supposed motives?

 

My top three:

1) Blake Churchman, the red-haired assistant Frank has Ray follow

2) Detective Burris/James Frain

3)and as a long shot the set photographer hanging around when the police visit (in case the killer is as obscure as Lawnmower Man)

 

From the beginning I've thought that Birdman has some connection to the faux rapist Frank sent Ray to kill and that's still my top guess at a motive. Whatever the motive, however, I think it's personal against Frank and not a way o covering up corruption like the "accident" that killed the new owner of the waste management firm.

Who's the guy that Ray beat to a pulp this week? Is he in the running?

They've got the real rapist in lockup now, right? But we don't know who he is, do we? Or did they tell Ray his name? Could he be birdman? Of course, at this point, the only reason to believe they really do have the real rapist this time is because there are only 3 episodes left.

[Cardie]

Who's the guy that Ray beat to a pulp this week? Is he in the running?

They've got the real rapist in lockup now, right? But we don't know who he is, do we? Or did they tell Ray his name? Could he be birdman? Of course, at this point, the only reason to believe they really do have the real rapist this time is because there are only 3 episodes left.

 

Ray beat up the shady Dr. Pitler. He's a sleaze and in the sex trade but strikes me as too cowardly to get his hands dirty with torture/murder. It is significant that Death Cabin of the Vultures is in the same area where the spiritual retreat Ani's father runs is located. He's an outside chance for Birdman but seems too tall for the guy in the mask. I do think Birdman logged in time at the retreat at some point. The missing girl worked there too. 

 

They matched the DNA of the serial rapist in custody to Dena's rape kit, so I think he is the on and that his identity isn't relevant to the crimes, only that he isn't the guy Frank pointed out to Ray. True Detective obscures but doesn't really misdirect. I don't expect some surprise plot twist.

[jayjay]

Has anyone noticed that the theme song's lyrics have changed slightly every week? It's a version of Leonard Cohen's "Nevermind" and one verse changes each episode (although all are part of the original song).

Edited July 21, 2015 by jonk

[Jextella]

I'm spending way too much time sleuthing so I'm going to let it go.  Working on what the actors and Nic P have told us interviews (both last season and this), TD is about the characters more than it is a who-dunnit.  Shoving what could reasonably be construed as clues down our throats, didn't mean anything then and likely won't mean anything now.  

Edited July 21, 2015 by Jextella

[NurseGiGi]

I'm thinking maybe Caspere's death had nothing at all to do with the land deal.  He was into some freaky sex stuff and he was mutilated sexually which makes me wonder why someone would shoot his penis off over some real estate.

 

I also think Ani's dad plays a bigger role in this and I'm basing my assumption on the simple fact that his silhouette is shown each week in the opening credits.

[Cardie]

^^Her dad is also played by a fairly well known actor who so far has had little screen time. I agree that the land deal probably had nothing to do with Caspere's death.

[Desperately Random]

I'm thinking maybe Caspere's death had nothing at all to do with the land deal.  He was into some freaky sex stuff and he was mutilated sexually which makes me wonder why someone would shoot his penis off over some real estate.

 

I think that Caspere was using those videos on the hard drive to blackmail the head of the Catalyst group (Jon Lindstorm) into giving him parcels of land for the metro deal. That's why Jon Lindstrom is willing to give Vince Vaughn those 5 parcels for getting the hard drive back. He (and some other powerful men) must be on it. I think Jon Lindstrom had someone try and get the hard drive back from Caspere but he wouldn't give it up and ended up dying from being tortured. Shooting off his penis may have been done in frustration by whoever had him or cuz they knew he wasn't going to talk.

Edited July 21, 2015 by Desperately Random

[FemmyV]

In EP 2, Ani said there were 5 kids at her dad's commune, and that 2 suicided, 2 were in jail, and the other (Ani) became a cop.

 

How sure can we be, that the other two are still in jail? What if they were victims of Caspere, et al?

 

What if they aren't in jail anymore?

 

And what if Frank's wife's "operations" weren't all abortions, but were medically necessary as a result of childhood sexual assault?

Edited July 21, 2015 by FemmyV

[paigow]

Who did not kill Caspere?

 

Anyone working for  the Chessani family - e.g. cops -...the body would have disappeared, not staged in a location that requires State involvement.

Rival Russian mobsters - they would just kill Frank outright and take over his operation.

[paigow]

Any forensic geologists out there? Can mine tailings magically appear in spots? Shouldn't there be a trail leading back to the source - groundwater, gravity? These aren't dandelion seeds. 

[DarkRaichu]

Does anyone think there is a "civil war" within "the organization" ?  Perhaps one faction killed Caspere and made a public spectacle.  The other faction created the task force which lead to the shootout to cover up the whole thing.  

 

I think the black assistant DA(?) (younger Barksdale from the Wire) is also part of the organization. This means the 3 detectives are still being used by the organization, just by a different faction

[Jextella]

Photos that caught my eye.  Not sure if they mean anything though.  Likely minor gaffes or background for the individual detectives stories.

 

Anyway, this is the file Ani has when speaking with the relative who reported her missing.  Notice the date on the file - 2004....11 years ago (around the same age as the kid). But the girl only went missing recently.  Or is it just a mistake by producers, e.g. like the mismatched watches at the pawn shop? 

 

Hard to see here but blowing up with a photo editor, its pretty clear.  The highway sign near the park bench on which Caspere's body was placed is and Adopt A Highway sign....the adopting company is Catalyst Group.  Whoever is behind Caspere's killing seems to want to send a message to/about the Catalyst Group.  Or to cast doubt away from something else and toward an innocent party.

 

Totem Pole at Ani's father's hippy place..looks like ravens...speaking of....are raven tokens what Ani's mother carved before killing herself - and what her sister is now carving?  Seems she and the mayor's wife had a a few things in common in terms of not being able to deal with certain practices.

 

And my personal favorite is the plaque on the wall as Ani and her partner visit Ani's father when he's speaking to the group of people.  It says "Thank you for supporting the longevity of the dharma through a monetary donation."  I can't help but think of Lost's Dharma Initiative!

Edited July 25, 2015 by Jextella

[paigow]

I think that Caspere was using those videos on the hard drive to blackmail the head of the Catalyst group (Jon Lindstorm) ... I think Jon Lindstrom had someone try and get the hard drive back from Caspere but he wouldn't give it up and ended up dying from being tortured.

Why would Catalyst stage the body? More likely is that Catalyst & Caspere were accomplices in blackmailing state / federal officials to get the railway approved. Caspere betrayed Catalyst by looking to sell the tape to a different entity that would continue the blackmail for a different project. However, Caspere was betrayed in turn by this new entity...

[Desperately Random]

Why would Catalyst stage the body? More likely is that Catalyst & Caspere were accomplices in blackmailing state / federal officials to get the railway approved. Caspere betrayed Catalyst by looking to sell the tape to a different entity that would continue the blackmail for a different project. However, Caspere was betrayed in turn by this new entity...

Catalyst is a company not a person so it didn't stage the body. I think that one or more of the members of the Catalyst group hired someone to get the tape back from Caspere. Who that person was who was hired, I don't know. Why he left the body where he did, I don't know but I don't think killing Caspere was the original plan so the person who killed him may have panicked. Or he may have a reason for leaving him there. We just don't have enough information yet to know why, whoever did kill Caspere, left his body sitting on that bench. Hopefully, by the end of episode 8, we'll have the answers.

I was just speculating about why Caspere was killed. I could be wrong. I will say I am enjoying the mystery of Caspere's murder and hope we get a satisfactory explanation for why it happened.

Edited July 25, 2015 by Desperately Random

[Cardie]

I've all along supposed that the killer was out to get Frank. With this eagle-eyed spotting of the Catalyst sign near the body, I'm wondering if someone is sending a message to Catalyst on behalf of Frank. The scenario would go like this: Birdman, whose mask is in the Caspere transport car, knows (perhaps from being around he sex parties) that Caspere and Catalyst colluded to take Frank's money but retain the land parcels; Caspere got paid in blue diamonds. Birdman knows about the hard drive so tortures Caspere to find its location, then messages Catalyst that their CEO's shenanigans are on the tape. By involving Frank in the solution to the Caspere murder, the killer enables Frank to bargain to get the parcels back. I'm not sue why Stan had to go, but this killer could be acting in Frank's interest and have positive feelings for him. In collusion with Jordan, perhaps?

[sjohnson]

Birdman has to be the one with the hard drive and Birdman is likely a cop, using cop style shotgun loads. The eyes being carefully eaten out with a dropper suggests that Birdman really, really resented the spying, suggesting Birdman is on the hard drive. I originally thought Stan was in with Caspere (who needed an inside man to set up the camera) but since Blake was showed with Mayor Jr., I suppose Birdman may just have been mistaken. Or Blake took it over. The land scam and the ripoff of Semyon are independent, "merely" sharing Caspere. 

 

The only character known to have really intense sexual hangups they are desperate to keep secret is Paul, but how he can be on highway patrol and drive Caspere's corpse around for a day beats me. I conclude he is not Birdman, but a thematic parallel to Birdman. Of the unrevealed characters, James Frain is the biggest name, and a track record as a villain.

 

PS Except for the extreme amount of effort in the eye removal, which strongly suggests a personal motivation centered on what Caspere and Stan saw, I'd totally go for the theory just above. Perhaps if Jordan were on the hard drive? And I still think somebody on the inside would have to be helping Caspere set up the camera, and they'd have to go. 

Edited July 25, 2015 by sjohnson

[Cardie]

The missing girl was in on the blackmail scheme before, doubtless, becoming a loose end. How does she connect to Frank?

[paigow]

By involving Frank in the solution to the Caspere murder, the killer enables Frank to bargain to get the parcels back. I'm not sue why Stan had to go, but this killer could be acting in Frank's interest and have positive feelings for him. In collusion with Jordan, perhaps?

Interesting theory...This mysterious benefactor apparently enjoys torturing Frank as well...blue balls in the heart sounds painful. 

Edited July 26, 2015 by paigow

[paigow]

Birdman has to be the one with the hard drive and Birdman is likely a cop, using cop style shotgun loads...

Was Birdman waiting for Velcoro outside the camcorder house? If so, why was the camcorder still there? Regardless of who is on the tape, what is the benefit of leaving Velcoro alive? 

[shapeshifter]

Was Birdman waiting for Velcoro outside the camcorder house? If so, why was the camcorder still there? Regardless of who is on the tape, what is the benefit of leaving Velcoro alive?

Well, Velcoro, Ani, and Paul were all supposed to die in the cop-orchestrated shootout, so...

[paigow]

Well, Velcoro, Ani, and Paul were all supposed to die in the cop-orchestrated shootout, so...

Agreed, but why pass up an opportunity to eliminate luck from the equation? The raid would have happened regardless of Velcoro's participation. Dixon was feeding the fake intel...

[Cardie]

Was Birdman waiting for Velcoro outside the camcorder house? If so, why was the camcorder still there? Regardless of who is on the tape, what is the benefit of leaving Velcoro alive? 

I can think of explanations fitting with two theories that have been put forth here. My theory that Birdman acts on behalf of Frank would have Birdman letting Ray live because he knows Ray is Frank's man and Frank sent him there. (That would mean the sainted Stan has actually betrayed the boss who still mourns his loss.)

 

If it's Paul, well, he likes Ray and doesn't have to kill him, so doesn't. I have resisted the theory of Paul being Birdman but it would jibe with NP saying that the mystery is like that of Oedipus: you discover the criminal you are seeking is yourself. Of course, logistically, he would have to have had an accomplice--Stan, once more a villain, then disposed of as loose end?  Paul did after all find the body and report it. It's being right where he happened to go off the road is a big coincidence otherwise. Paul's sexual self-loathing would motivate the eye and genital gouging.

[paigow]

I can think of explanations fitting with two theories that have been put forth here. My theory that Birdman acts on behalf of Frank would have Birdman letting Ray live because he knows Ray is Frank's man and Frank sent him there. (That would mean the sainted Stan has actually betrayed the boss who still mourns his loss.)

Are you saying Stan = Birdman?? Stan delivered the tape to someone else and got killed as payment?? 

[maystone]

Agreed, but why pass up an opportunity to eliminate luck from the equation? The raid would have happened regardless of Velcoro's participation. Dixon was feeding the fake intel...

 

Because killing Velcoro in those circumstances would stir up a hornet's nest. Even a dirty cop would have to be avenged by his fellow officers. If Velcoro is killed in a police-ordered raid that goes horribly wrong, no one really looks any farther.

[Cardie]

Are you saying Stan = Birdman?? Stan delivered the tape to someone else and got killed as payment??

 

Under this scenario, I'm not sure what Stan's role would have been--but not that he's Birdman. If Birdman is on Frank's side, and kills a man Frank considers a loyal follower, then Stan's loyalty is called into question. Why else would a Frank supporter kill another Frank supporter? But that's all contingent on whether this theory is accurate. I'm just speculating on various possibilities.

[LilaFowler]

The plot seems to get more convoluted with each week.  How will they ever wrap this up in two episodes? Last season was much more structured.