S31: Spoilers

[pennben]

So now Joe is suddenly at the end?  I'll believe this only if Ciera leaves in two weeks after Stephen leaves next week.  I don't see them not taking out Joe when they have a chance.

 

But Ciera is scheduled to be out two weeks after Stephen leaves next week in the prior boot schedule as well.  How does that make you think this one is real, the other false?

[Dale Griffin]

pennben, on 05 Nov 2015 - 7:55 PM, said:

But Ciera is scheduled to be out two weeks after Stephen leaves next week in the prior boot schedule as well.  How does that make you think this one is real, the other false?

Oh, no, I meant two weeks from this week.  If she goes directly after Stephen, as the new list says, then I believe it.  In the original, Kelly was slated to leave after Stephen.

[LadyChatts]

That boot list is almost identical to the old one.  I'll stick with what's been right so far.  The only way Joe gets to the end is an immunity run, and that if he loses immunity someone else is deemed a bigger threat or he has an idol (likely the latter).

 

I would love to see Joe at least make the family visit.  And since he's speculated not to, that's the only reason I'd want that other list to be wrong.  In addition, I don't know if Joe could beat Jeremy at this point.

[Dale Griffin]

No way is Joe winning. I don't believe that boot list for a second.

 

The winner in my opinion is either Jeremy or Kelley. If not one of them it will be (unfortunately) Spencer.

 

I don't know if Joe could beat Jeremy at this point.

That list didn't say that Joe wins the whole game.  It started to say he wins the last four immunities before it was cut off by the ad in the screen grab.  Jeremy or Tasha could still win, if this new F3 is true.

[wonald]

That list didn't say that Joe wins the whole game.  It started to say he wins the last four immunities before it was cut off by the ad in the screen grab.  Jeremy or Tasha could still win, if this new F3 is true.

 

 

It must have been cut off bc that list DOES say the Joe is the winna.

 

I think this new list took a very good guess at one of the things that might be wrong: that Joe does make the family visit as he says in his opening confessional. 

 

With hindsight, I believe that the opening confessionals indicate about 75% of everyone's fate in the game.

[anthonyd46]

That list didn't say that Joe wins the whole game.  It started to say he wins the last four immunities before it was cut off by the ad in the screen grab.  Jeremy or Tasha could still win, if this new F3 is true.

It says Joe Wins. Under the Ad it said Joe wins 4 immunities AND finds an idol let me see if i can get a cached version of the page or not. The list now has it going Stephen then Kelly. This list says Stephen then Ciera. 

 

I found the cache:

 

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:a1Upgb1VJCwJ:survivorsucks.yuku.com/topic/124179/100-right-boot-list+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us#.Vjv-VrwuXqo

 

Here is the exact image now without the ad:

 

[Dale Griffin]

Wrong.  @anthonyd46 him/herself said this:

anthonyd46, on 05 Nov 2015 - 7:25 PM, said:

It also said at the bottom which got cut off by the ad here that Joe wins the last 4 immunities.

So I think he just wins the final immunities (if this new list is true), not wins the game.

[bdestroyer88]

It's fake. IN WHAT WORLD does Joe make the end?! Also, they could have an early family visit this season, considering the early merge and early jury. This new list is fake and I'm WAY more inclined to believe the old one. 

[LadyChatts]

Ciera going before Kelly would make way more sense, even though the current boot list says the order isn't exact.  Other than that, this one is similar, except Spencer finishes final 5 and Keith/Abi get bumped up a spot.  Ciera's on the outs and tried to stir up some drama.  I can see why she'd be an earlier target than the quiet and elusive Kelly.  But does anyone else fall victim to an idol?  Is Jeremy the only one that plays his?  Kind of disappointing if that's the case.  However, this person gets a list from a cameraman that they claim not to know?  Really?

 

I know there's a lot of people who believe Joe at least makes the family visit, since it was his goal and in his pitch in the premiere episode.  But the whole second chance can work both ways.  He can miss his goal again and not get that redemption, if you want to call it that.

Edited November 6, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Dale Griffin]

bdestroyer88, on 05 Nov 2015 - 8:18 PM, said:

It's fake. IN WHAT WORLD does Joe make the end?! Also, they could have an early family visit this season, considering the early merge and early jury. This new list is fake and I'm WAY more inclined to believe the old one. 

Yeah, you're probably right.  That new bootlist is likely the product of some desperate Joe fan who wants to think of a way to say he wins.

[wonald]

 

 

I know there's a lot of people who believe Joe at least makes the family visit, since it was his goal and in his pitch in the premiere episode.  But the whole second chance can work both ways.  He can miss his goal again and not get that redemption, if you want to call it that.

 

If Joe's opening confess was meant to be wrong, they could have just gone with a generic 'I'm going to win' quote.  Joe's the only one to mention a family visit (not necessarily winning) which really sticks out.

[LadyChatts]

Yeah, you're probably right.  That new bootlist is likely the product of some desperate Joe fan who wants to think of a way to say he wins.

 

I think it's more someone has too much time of their hands and just switched a few placements.  Fake boot lists were popping up as soon as the cast got back.  This isn't the first one I saw that had Joe in the final 3.  So someone had 5 minutes to kill and decided to create a list that almost mirrors the other one.  I don't think it is completely unbelievable Joe could make it to the end.  Extremely unlikely, but there is a chance he could go on an immunity run.  I think if he lost, for now, he might be safe since there's still so many people and Jeremy wants the shield.  Kass said that Kelley Wentworth/Keith/Spencer were voting how Joe voted.  Keith will probably vote with whatever majority gets him through, and Spencer doesn't seem to have a ton of options.  I do believe there's shades that Wentworth might be the cause of Joe's demise (he stuck his neck out to try and save her, but she's openly said the minute she doesn't need him he's gone).  Anyway, should Joe find an idol or discover the other idols are different looking, and make his own, then I might be inclined to believe this list.  Until that happens, I'm sticking with the old one (though with the theory that Ciera does go before Wigles).

 

If Joe's opening confess was meant to be wrong, they could have just gone with a generic 'I'm going to win' quote.  Joe's the only one to mention a family visit (not necessarily winning) which really sticks out.

 

 

Good point.  And he did mention in his Ponderosa vid last season he didn't care about winning, just wanted to make the visit.  And if the list holds up, we know Keith doesn't make it even though he was rumored to because of the twitter comments between his wife and Spencer's girlfriend.  And maybe the visit is earlier this year.

Edited November 6, 2015 by LadyChatts

[bdestroyer88]

I think it's more someone has too much time of their hands and just switched a few placements.  Fake boot lists were popping up as soon as the cast got back.  This isn't the first one I saw that had Joe in the final 3.  So someone had 5 minutes to kill and decided to create a list that almost mirrors the other one.  I don't think it is completely unbelievable Joe could make it to the end.  Extremely unlikely, but there is a chance he could go on an immunity run.  I think if he lost, for now, he might be safe since there's still so many people and Jeremy wants the shield.  Kass said that Kelley Wentworth/Keith/Spencer were voting how Joe voted.  I do believe there's shades that Wentworth might be the cause of Joe's demise (he stuck his neck out to try and save her, but she's openly said the minute she doesn't need him he's gone).  Anyway, should Joe find an idol or discover the other idols are different looking, and make his own, then I might be inclined to believe this list.  Until that happens, I'm sticking with the old one (though with the theory that Ciera does go before Wigles).

 

 

Good point.  And he did mention in his Ponderosa vid last season he didn't care about winning, just wanted to make the visit.  And if the list holds up, we know Keith doesn't make it even though he was rumored to because of the twitter comments between his wife and Spencer's girlfriend.  And maybe the visit is earlier this year.

Apparently there's a very complicated tribal council coming up that's so dynamic that no one knows what really happened. Source was Steve Helling from Max's podcast. Maybe that's the reason Kelly goes home and not Ciera idk. 

[anthonyd46]

It's fake. IN WHAT WORLD does Joe make the end?! Also, they could have an early family visit this season, considering the early merge and early jury. This new list is fake and I'm WAY more inclined to believe the old one. 

I'm just relaying what I saw. Joe could easily pull a Mike and win a few challenges, idol save himself, then win a couple more. Ciera before Kelly makes a ton of sense. If Joe makes a final 3 he will win easily which is a reason to not want him there if you are a player playing against him. 

[Jextella]

It's fake. IN WHAT WORLD does Joe make the end?!

Winning against Tasha and Jeremy?  I don't see it.  Joe is lovely in every possible way but I don't see him playing the game better than than these two - not enough to get the win, anyway.  And while I think Joe is great, I adore Spencer more and would rather see him in the F3.

[LadyChatts]

I think Joe could beat Tasha.  Jeremy, I'm on the fence.  There's a lot of 'what ifs' to that one.  But Tasha is likely to lose based on likability.  With it being so early in the merge, too, Joe may very well play a fantastic game worthy of a win.  I'm still not buying he's in the final 3, however.

 

I'm just relaying what I saw. Joe could easily pull a Mike and win a few challenges, idol save himself, then win a couple more. Ciera before Kelly makes a ton of sense. If Joe makes a final 3 he will win easily which is a reason to not want him there if you are a player playing against him.

 

It could be everyone waits one vote too many to get Joe out, like they did with Mike.  That was Joe's argument to everyone but Mike, and then pleaded with Mike and Tyler that they would be next after him.  They finally got Tyler, but not Mike.  And if he could go on an immunity run, I believe Joe could.  Had Joe survived that TC, I fully believe he would have won every IC from that point on.  In addition, he could find an idol or make one and everyone believes it is real.  I am hoping that this 'idols looking different' does cause some chaos this season.  Which brings me to:

 

Apparently there's a very complicated tribal council coming up that's so dynamic that no one knows what really happened. Source was Steve Helling from Max's podcast. Maybe that's the reason Kelly goes home and not Ciera idk.

 

 

I keep forgetting about that.  So I wonder if a fake idol gets brought out or someone threatens to use an idol on an ally and another person gets booted (like when Mike bluffed that he was going to possibly play the idol on Shirin, and they both said they were voting for Tyler).  Tyler freaked and some votes came Dan's way. 

[anthonyd46]

I'm not sure I'm buying he's in the final 3 either, but wonald really does bring up a good point how that family visit thing is highlighted specially as a goal. His other goals are to not just rely on challenges and to be in the numbers which we have seen scenes of that. On the unspoiled sucks forum they have him still as a possibility, but they also are high up on Jeremy, kelley, and spencer just like us spoiled people.

 

Also back to opening confessionals. That is 8 boots so far. 2 had opening confessionals 6 didn't. Only ones left are Stephen and Keith. If Stephen does go this week then 10 of the final 11 are ones with opening confessionals. 

Edited November 6, 2015 by anthonyd46

[pennben]

We'll know soon enough! Dueling lists make it interesting, although I will say I give more credence to one that was posted earlier than one posted just today.  However, who the hell knows.....

Edited November 6, 2015 by pennben

[anthonyd46]

We'll know soon enough! Dueling lists make it interesting, although I will say I give more credence to one that was posted earlier than one posted just today.  However, who the hell knows.....

Yea well least it was just made more interesting we will find out next week if Stephen is in fact the boot this one.

[Jextella]

We'll know soon enough! Dueling lists make it interesting, although I will say I give more credence to one that was posted earlier than one posted just today.  However, who the hell knows.....

 

Seriously.  I was getting down on myself and the show was becoming a litle lackluster given the thus-far-reliable boot list.  Now I can have the jitters and be spoiled at the same time!

[SiobhanJW]

I haven't watched Survivor in years, and got back on board this season after I saw the previews and liked the idea of Second Chances. Anyway from what I remember isn't the winner usually announced LIVE on Finale night? I know that they vote on the island, but wouldn't any supposed winner be just a guess anyway? Or am I not remembering correctly? Lol. 

[Dale Griffin]

SiobhanJW, on 06 Nov 2015 - 12:46 AM, said:

I haven't watched Survivor in years, and got back on board this season after I saw the previews and liked the idea of Second Chances. Anyway from what I remember isn't the winner usually announced LIVE on Finale night? I know that they vote on the island, but wouldn't any supposed winner be just a guess anyway? Or am I not remembering correctly? Lol. 

The jurors talk about their votes all the time (despite expressly being told not to), so they're able to reasonably guess the winner from there.

[SiobhanJW]

The jurors talk about their votes all the time (despite expressly being told not to), so they're able to reasonably guess the winner from there.

Ah okay, cool thanks! 

[LadyChatts]

I'm wondering if Stephen's tear filled TH was actually foreshadowing to not only what will be his undoing (again) but all that of the people around him-that they didn't take the opportunity to get rid of a huge threat and end up paying for it at the end.

 

I like spoilers, and I like them to be accurate.  It's why I hate that the other boot list wasn't entirely 100% on the merge order (despite being close).  It made me realize, though, that I'm pretty okay with whatever happens.  There are people who I don't want to see win, but I know without even looking at the boot list that they probably have zero chance anyway (unless they were taken to the end as a goat, and the jury decided to reward the goat over gamers).  But while I'd love to see Joe make the family visit, or Spencer to stay in the final 3, and Keith to be the next to go over the likes of Stephen, Kelly, and Ciera, I'm not agonizing over it like I do some seasons where I realize I'm stuck with extremely unlikable people on my screen until the finale.  I don't know if this season will live up to the hype as one of the strongest seasons, but it beats the last two.

[Oscirus]

O man fake spoker list creator you let me down man.  A camera man? Really?  You're probably not reading this but in the future the number one rule to posting a belivable fake list is to not over-explain where it came from.

 

I'm wondering if Stephen's tear filled TH was actually foreshadowing to not only what will be his undoing (again) but all that of the people around him-that they didn't take the opportunity to get rid of a huge threat and end up paying for it at the end.

 

I think that's where this new spoiler list originated from. The creator  ignored the editing on the show and created a bootlist that would lead to Joe winning.

[anthonyd46]

I'm wondering if Stephen's tear filled TH was actually foreshadowing to not only what will be his undoing (again) but all that of the people around him-that they didn't take the opportunity to get rid of a huge threat and end up paying for it at the end.

 

I like spoilers, and I like them to be accurate.  It's why I hate that the other boot list wasn't entirely 100% on the merge order (despite being close).  It made me realize, though, that I'm pretty okay with whatever happens.  There are people who I don't want to see win, but I know without even looking at the boot list that they probably have zero chance anyway (unless they were taken to the end as a goat, and the jury decided to reward the goat over gamers).  But while I'd love to see Joe make the family visit, or Spencer to stay in the final 3, and Keith to be the next to go over the likes of Stephen, Kelly, and Ciera, I'm not agonizing over it like I do some seasons where I realize I'm stuck with extremely unlikable people on my screen until the finale.  I don't know if this season will live up to the hype as one of the strongest seasons, but it beats the last two.

 

The only one I'm not a fan of this time is Tasha so I would be ok with 11 of the remaining 12 winning.

 

As  far as using the camera man as an excuse its been done in other accurate lists before so not 100% out of possibility.

[Skeeter22]

I kind of hope the boot list is correct and Stephen is next. He has his faults, but he can be very articulate when talking about the game. I want to hear what he says about the dynamics of the original Bayon tribe. I feel like we aren't getting a clear picture of what's going on now because the show hid from us the alliances that were made at the beginning.

[Jextella]

This is just my sense.....Stephen's blog about Kass' eviction was missing the playful enthusiasm of previous blogs.  Seemed as if either he lost steam or his mind was more focused on things to come.  I would not be surprised is Stephen go's next.

 

I don't understand it though, because there are far bigger threats remaining than him.

Edited November 7, 2015 by Jextella

[LadyChatts]

This is just my sense.....Stephen's blog about Kass' eviction was missing the playful enthusiasm of previous blogs.  Seemed as if either he lost steam or his mind is more focused on things to come.  I would no be surprised is Stephen goe's next.

 

I don't understand it though, because there are far bigger threats remaining than him.

 

My guess is people won't flip on the alphas (wanting them as a shield, don't have the numbers to maintain a consistent alliance) or there is the loyalty.  I have a feeling Kimmi will remain loyal to Jeremy and just go along with what he says (maybe that's what Monica meant when she said Kimmi would be sorry).  Keith has said he's going with whoever is getting him the farthest.  I hope Kelley Wentworth doesn't crash and burn and just get carried because she thinks it'll be an easier win.  I have really high hopes for her.  I don't see Spencer making any moves.  I think the first half of this game rattled him.

 

In reality, had people really thought it through, they probably could have flipped the vote last week and had numbers on their side.  Joe/Andrew/Jeremy/Tasha  are 4 in a group of 13.

 

Have to say, I'm bored at the fact that it looks like another endurance challenge next episode.

Edited November 6, 2015 by LadyChatts

[bdestroyer88]

My guess is people won't flip on the alphas (wanting them as a shield, don't have the numbers to maintain a consistent alliance) or there is the loyalty.  I have a feeling Kimmi will remain loyal to Jeremy and just go along with what he says (maybe that's what Monica meant when she said Kimmi would be sorry).  Keith has said he's going with whoever is getting him the farthest.  I hope Kelley Wentworth doesn't crash and burn and just get carried because she thinks it'll be an easier win.  I have really high hopes for her.  I don't see Spencer making any moves.  I think the first half of this game rattled him.

 

In reality, had people really thought it through, they probably could have flipped the vote last week and had numbers on their side.  Joe/Andrew/Jeremy/Tasha  are 4 in a group of 13.

 

Have to say, I'm bored at the fact that it looks like another endurance challenge next episode.

I'm bored by a lot of the people remaining as well. I'm really only rooting for Ciera, Abi, and Kelley. Everyone else is either a useless follower (Keith/Kimmi/Wigles), an excruciatingly boring male (Spencer/Joe/Jeremy/Stephen) or an extremely unbearable asshole (Savage/Tasha). 

 

- I LOVED Ciera last episode. It's refreshing to see an aggressive female player who's not afraid to speak her mind, even if it puts her in jeopardy. She's the type of person who doesn't care about how she places, unless she wins. She would rather go out 13th playing hard than follow around people like a sheep and end up getting voted out mid-late jury (LOOKING AT YOU, KEITH). 2nd and 20th place are the same to her. I hope she makes a huge move soon and/or goes out with a bang if/when she's booted in 3 weeks according to the bootlist. I know she won't go out quietly and she will cause mass chaos. There also seems to be a Ciera vs. Savage rivalry brewing. I hope she wins that battle, and I hope the bootlist mixed those two up and Savage goes 10th and Ciera goes 9th. 

 

- I hope Abi just creates drama for the rest of the time she's there. I was a bit annoyed by her in the pre-merge but now with all these horrible, boring people at the merge, I really appreciate her as a character. "What's the name of the thing that eats dead people? Vulture?" Loved that line, QUEEN <3333333. 

 

- I REALLY, REALLY hope Kelley doesn't just go along with the boring majority. I, too, have high hopes for her. With most of her confessionals being about the idol, I'm expecting a big idol play by her pretty soon. I think she'll be an underdog towards the end of the game and it'll be sad if she actually gets voted out in 4th place because she's the only one I want to win out of the supposed F4. 

[LadyChatts]

https://youtu.be/ChuKG4TR8gs

 

Big moves, blindsides, Stephen/Ciera want Joe out, Joe has some plan that Kelley Wentworth ends up calling him evil over.  So a whole lotta nothing, I'm guessing.  Bye bye, Stephen.  I am wondering if Joe loses immunity, though, which may lead to the push to get him out.

 

Though could it be that maybe the boot list is wrong this week?  I mean, it definitely looks like they are setting up a Stephen boot, especially with the preview at the end of the episode.  Plus the big edit he's been getting the last couple of eps over wanting to target Joe and not having the numbers to do so.  But the boot list is supposed to be 'close to order'.  Which I would take to mean that they are off by a placement and someone else goes this week and Stephen goes next week.  Andrew/Jeremy won't turn on Joe, and I believe they've got Kimmi/Keith/Spencer/Tasha.  If Wentworth could make a move and have that would suceed long term, I think she'd go for it.  She played it smart last week voting along with the group so as not to ruffle any feathers.  She's a wild card.  So that would leave Stephen/Ciera/Kelly Wigles/Abi.  I don't know that I see Kelly Wigles joining another minority alliance, but then again, she's gotten blindsided on almost every vote so far.

 

If Joe wins immunity, who would they try and target?  Savage?  Jeremy?  Tasha?  Ciera said she hoped to work with Tasha, but I don't see Tasha turning on Jeremy and crew.  It's why I'm wondering if that preview maybe gives away that Joe doesn't win immunity, but my guess is we see Stephen way overstrategizing his hand, taking the target off Ciera this week.  However, for a nice change of pace I'd like for something exciting to happen.  When Probst says "when is somebody going to make a big move" I wonder if that's after the vote, when he stands up and gives his words of wisdom before sending the tribe back to camp.  Which could mean it was a predictable boot.

Edited November 7, 2015 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

Episode 9 is called "Witches Coven".  

[anthonyd46]

Episode 9 is called "Witches Coven".  

Makes it sound like theres enough females arguing still by that title. Also thats definitely after the vote. How would Stephen be predictable? The ones on the block would be Ciera, Tasha, Abi, Spencer. I guess it could be an Abi boot? She went against Tasha this week. She's annoying enough.

[LadyChatts]

Makes it sound like theres enough females arguing still by that title. Also thats definitely after the vote. How would Stephen be predictable? The ones on the block would be Ciera, Tasha, Abi, Spencer. I guess it could be an Abi boot? She went against Tasha this week. She's annoying enough.

 

My guess is it applies to Ciera/Abi/Tasha.  And maybe Kimmi, too.  If Stephen goes this week and Ciera finds herself on the block, she might start an argument with the remaining ladies about how they will get picked off by the alphas.

 

It seems like they are foreshadowing a Stephen boot this week (my guess is they'll call it a blindside because he feels he's going to make a move).

Edited November 7, 2015 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

"When you were sent to Ponderosa last time, the other contestants gave you the silent treatment. (Video here). How did it differ this time?

This was a game, and I really didn't have any problems with most people out there. Everybody was great until the end, even Tasha. So when people come to Ponderosa, I want to welcome them and give them a great experience. "

This is from Kass's interview at people.

[LadyChatts]

If the final 3 is in fact Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha, I'm seeing now how Jeremy wins.  Tasha is the unlikable goat, and Spencer probably gets history handed to him when he's compared to Woo for being a coat tail rider (which is what I'm thinking will end up being the case).  In a season where we've heard people say they will reward the best game, and Kass already said it was Jeremy playing the best game, I see why he's the winner.

[azshadowwalker]

- I LOVED Ciera last episode. It's refreshing to see an aggressive female player who's not afraid to speak her mind, even if it puts her in jeopardy. She's the type of person who doesn't care about how she places, unless she wins. She would rather go out 13th playing hard than follow around people like a sheep and end up getting voted out mid-late jury (LOOKING AT YOU, KEITH). 2nd and 20th place are the same to her. I hope she makes a huge move soon and/or goes out with a bang if/when she's booted in 3 weeks according to the bootlist. I know she won't go out quietly and she will cause mass chaos. There also seems to be a Ciera vs. Savage rivalry brewing. I hope she wins that battle, and I hope the bootlist mixed those two up and Savage goes 10th and Ciera goes 9th. 

I didn't see her as an aggressive player. I saw her as a bitter, petty loudmouth who berates people for supposedly accepting 6th in another alliance instead of accepting 5th in hers. She demands "big moves" that help no one but her, then pretends she's the only one Playing the Game. She didn't have anything real to offer, so she threw a fit instead. That fit wasn't to get her ahead, but to try to torpedo someone else's game. That's not good play. That's just throwing a tantrum. I'm just hoping the boot list is anywhere near correct and both Savage and Ciera are gone in the next couple of weeks. The order doesn't matter. They're both assholes, and having no more of them on my TV would be great. Hope neither gets a third chance.

[Zuleikha]

I saw her as a bitter, petty loudmouth who berates people for supposedly accepting 6th in another alliance instead of accepting 5th in hers.

She was almost certainly addressing players like Kelley Wentworth, Keith, Joe, and Spencer, who--with the possible exception of Joe--were trading being part of a core alliance of mostly equals for being in the bottom of another alliance. If those four had stayed with Kass/Ciera, the Ta Keo 5 alliance plus Spencer and Abi would have had numeric control. Wentworth/Keith/Joe were as much as part of the Ta Keo 5 as Kass/Ciera and outnumbered them even if Kass/Ciera were viewed as an unshakable duo (which I don't think they were). Joe would be in much better position to immunity run in that group than he is with the Brolliance as is Spencer. Spencer also has a logical in to advance in position since he and Kelley were formally aligned. He also has worked with Abi, and Abi will align with anyone who makes her feel like her vote is valued.

 

Per spoilers, the choice works out okay for Spencer and Wentworth (and somehow Abi!), but I think Keith and Joe would have gone further with Ta Keo 5+. I also think given the information about the game they had at the time, Ta Keo 5+ was a more logical choice than the Brolliance. 

[LadyChatts]

According to Kass, Ciera had a target on her back.  Those two plus Abi were being completely ignored, and none of the alphas let any potential swing votes go off alone.  Kass said she never got a chance to talk to Joe one on one, and that she barely got ahold of Spencer before TC.  Ciera had nothing to lose with her outburst, Andrew was already gunning for her because his ego was crushed since he wasn't let in on blindsiding Woo (because his wonderful plan of putting Ciera up as a pawn instead of himself and voting Spencer off didn't work).  I like Andrew, but in reality, he is no good at this game.  I thought we missed a great gamer when Lill brought the ax down on him during PI, but likely not.  He's gotten carried.  I think Ciera did what she had to do to possibly flip anyone.  And she is right, once it gets down to the 9, then what?  Whose number will be up then?  Why not make a move when you have a lot of options.  I didn't see it as Ciera saying 'your 5th in my alliance'.  Regardless of her outburst, she was already in Andrew's cross hairs.  I'm glad she caused a stink.

Edited November 8, 2015 by LadyChatts

[loki567]

Ciera always gets some major hate for some reason and even though I think she was overrated as a player, I never quite get it. I didn't think she came off condescending, she had a decent argument to make. Especially since we have the spoilers and know this season is going to end with alpha male leader, Jeremy, winning the game. 

 

And yeah, Spencer and to a lesser degree Tasha, is going to get some major shit thrown their way if they have the chance to get rid of Jeremy and take him to the F3. Especially considering Spencer's Cagayan FTC question to Woo. 

[Zuleikha]

But why would Kelley, Keith, Joe, or Spencer think voting with Ciera and Kass would help their game? Kass is/was too unpredictable, and Ciera is another unpredictable player as well as useless aside from "schooling" people who don't strategize or vote her way.

 

Because with Ciera and Kass, they had the numbers to be the a majority alliance. Without them, they don't. I don't want to belabor this point too much because per the bootlist, somehow Kelley, Spencer, and Abi are going to make things mostly work for them and get farther than everyone but Jeremy and Tasha, and Keith and Joe are going to outlast Stephen, Wigles, and Savage. But to me, it seems obviously preferable to go with a position somewhere between 1 and 7 than to go with a seemingly definite of 6-9 (especially for Joe and Spencer whose chances of winning physical-based immunities seem higher in the physically weaker Ta Keo 5+ alliance). 

 

I didn't see it as Ciera saying 'your 5th in my alliance'.

She definitely wasn't. If you view her and Kass as 1,2, then who would have been 3,4? Someone from Joe/Keith/Kelley/Spencer/Abi. And what reason is there to believe 3,4 would have stayed there instead of 1,2? Ta Keo 5 was 5 people with no obvious order, which also left room for Spencer/Abi to move up to the core given the amount of game

[Jextella]

It says Joe Wins. Under the Ad it said Joe wins 4 immunities AND finds an idol let me see if i can get a cached version of the page or not. The list now has it going Stephen then Kelly. This list says Stephen then Ciera. 

 

I found the cache:

 

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:a1Upgb1VJCwJ:survivorsucks.yuku.com/topic/124179/100-right-boot-list+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us#.Vjv-VrwuXqo

 

Here is the exact image now without the ad:

 

 

Thanks for sharing this.  In comparing with the first (and thus far reliable) boot list, both come up with the same name this week - Stephen.

 

We have to wait 4 weeks to see which list is more reliable.  That new list says Keith and the old list says Joe for that week.

 

And 7 weeks to see if Spencer advances to F4.

[Oscirus]

When you were sent to Ponderosa last time, the other contestants gave you the silent treatment. (Video here). How did it differ this time?

This was a game, and I really didn't have any problems with most people out there. Everybody was great until the end, even Tasha. So when people come to Ponderosa, I want to welcome them and give them a great experience. "

 

I had to read that twice, but I believe the first part is referring to her treatment by the Cagayan jury, it's just worded strangely.

 

She was almost certainly addressing players like Kelley Wentworth, Keith, Joe, and Spencer, who--with the possible exception of Joe--were trading being part of a core alliance of mostly equals for being in the bottom of another alliance.

 

Just because they didn't vote with Kass doesn't make them part of the fabled "Bayon strong." They just were just voting somebody off for being toxic. Doesn't mean that they're attached to anybody at the moment.

 

Per spoilers, the choice works out okay for Spencer and Wentworth (and somehow Abi!), but I think Keith and Joe would have gone further with Ta Keo 5+. I also think given the information about the game they had at the time, Ta Keo 5+ was a more logical choice than the Brolliance.

 

So they had a 50/50 chance of going far in the game? Those sound like pretty good odds to me.

 

According to Kass, Ciera had a target on her back.  Those two plus Abi were being completely ignored, and none of the alphas let any potential swing votes go off alone.  Kass said she never got a chance to talk to Joe one on one, and that she barely got ahold of Spencer before TC.  Ciera had nothing to lose with her outburst, Andrew was already gunning for her because his ego was crushed since he wasn't let in on blindsiding Woo (because his wonderful plan of putting Ciera up as a pawn instead of himself and voting Spencer off didn't work).  I like Andrew, but in reality, he is no good at this game.  I thought we missed a great gamer when Lill brought the ax down on him during PI, but likely not.  He's gotten carried.  I think Ciera did what she had to do to possibly flip anyone.  And she is right, once it gets down to the 9, then what?  Whose number will be up then?

 

Ciera painted a target on her own back with that dumb assed lie. Any chance she had of integrating herself back into the group was killed once she did that.  Scolding people because they won't vote your way at 13 and complaining about a non-existent  nine man alliance really doesn't help her cause.  I'll give her some credit since she apparently got into Stephen's head and convinced him to make his move way too early thereby buying her at least three more days, but at this point, it's just delaying the inevitable.

 

Ciera always gets some major hate for some reason and even though I think she was overrated as a player, I never quite get it. I didn't think she came off condescending, she had a decent argument to make. Especially since we have the spoilers and know this season is going to end with alpha male leader, Jeremy, winning the game.

 

The reason why Ciera bugs me is because she gets all this credit for making big moves but they're all pretty much made for the sake of making them. Other then the time she forced the rock, what other move of hers benefitted her? Hell even the Woo boot was dumb since she wasted a good blindside on Woo. There is no way in hell that you don't go after Andrew at that point.

 

We have to wait 4 weeks to see which list is more reliable.  That new list says Keith and the old list says Joe for that week.

 

 

Actually, we have two. If Ciera doesn't go in two weeks then the Joe wins list is debunked. 

[LadyChatts]

We know that the first boot list was 'close to order'.  So even if there's a boot that is off, I'm still inclined to believe it.  Unless someone that is allegedly guaranteed to make the final 6 goes before then (which, there was that FB messenger spoiler, which I believe showed Kimmi was online around day 24-and it correctly showed some other castoffs online around the time they were eliminated).  The only way I'm inclined to believe the second boot list is if Joe finds an idol, and Jeremy specifically plays his idol and gets Andrew out (though for some reason I feel like Andrew's demise is going to be by an idol play regardless).  If Kelly Wigles does, in fact, go before Ciera, I wonder if she sided with Stephen in an attempt to blindside one of the broalliance members.  If Joe wins immunity, Stephen may try ousting Andrew.  Obviously we've seen how Andrew takes to people going behind his back (in a game that's designed for going behind people's backs).  So Stephen gets the boot, and Andrew puts Kelly in the crosshairs because she dared to vote for him.

 

Sonoma, no worries!  I respect your opinion, even if I disagree.  I enjoy the debate.  I guess I look beyond the editing, which is probably something I should stop doing (at least until interviews come out).  I'm guessing what Ciera has to say about her outburst to Andrew and the Woo vote will probably be similar to what's already been said.  I just think the girl knew she was on the outs, so why not try and cause some drama?

[bdestroyer88]

As soon as the merge was announced, Kass, Ciera, and Abi were in some deep shit. Because of Tasha, Kass was always going to be the first boot at the merge, and Ciera was always going to follower her for being her closest ally (but we know that's not the case b/c of the bootlist). 

[LadyChatts]

I'm going by what Kass said in her interviews, that she/Abi/Ciera were completely ignored at the merge and had caught the wrath of Andrew because they blindsided him at Ta'Keo.  However, there are more sides to this story to come out (namely Ciera and Andrew).  Hopefully that will be addressed when those two are booted.  And if the boot list holds up, we won't have to wait too long!

 

So last week it was Ciera's outburst, then a couple of weeks before it was Kimmi's move against Monica that got people divided around here.  I wonder what'll happen this week to make us almost forget about those two previous incidents!

[Oscirus]

I thought the interviews implied that Kass and crew's isolation was due to  Tasha's interference. I could see that since  Trish from Cagayan said that Tasha pulled a similar stunt that season.

 

Kelly's boot is really throwing me off. Like there's not even anything setting it up yet. Assuming the boot list is correct I guess either they'll start setting it up next week or she'll get unceremoniously dumped in a double boot episode.  I admittedly don't know when they use those so I could be way off.

 

The interesting thing about the first boot list is that once Ciera goes, the Alphas start following. I wonder  if that's  due to Jeremy finally marking his territory or Spencer and Tasha getting together and starting to knock people off.

[LadyChatts]

Yeah, the Kelly boot has me scratching my head.  I guess if she suddenly gets a ton of screen time this week, we know it is coming.  Jeff said she had a compelling story, which I suppose could be compelling to Jeff (but not so compelling/obvious to us-we know how Jeff is with his hype).  For all we know, it is just her journey wrapping itself up on here.  They made such a big deal in the beginning as to how often she's thought about losing, so maybe Jeff's thinking 'hey, she can finally be at peace with it!  Even though she already is but we pretended she wasn't.'  I'm thinking it could be a few things: either she gets idoled out, there's a mistake and people meant Kelley Wentworth but forgot the extra E and everyone didn't bother to write Wentworth on the parchment paper (yes, I know this probably isn't what happened but given that Kelly's boot is such a mystery I'm going with it), she flipped with Stephen this week and is deemed untrustworthy, or she so far as viewed as way too much of a threat to win since she's likable, the first ever runner up, and doesn't appear to be ruffling any feathers.  Of course, it could be she was used as a pawn vote, but someone either flips or votes for her not realizing they were supposed to vote for someone else.

 

Kelly is probably the one person I'm most disappointed to see leave so soon.  I'm actually hoping the boot list is wrong and she at least outlasts Ciera, but I'd go for Ciera and Andrew.  In Andrew's case, either an idol gets played (my guess is Wentworth's) or Jeremy does decide he doesn't need the shields anymore.  Would make sense since Joe isn't far behind.

[Oscirus]

Yea, they just wrote down Kelly W and Jeff was so sick of Kelly not making good tv the he just pretended to think that people meant wigglesworth.

 

The fact that Kelly leaves so early despite being the ultimate non-threat is crazy. I'm going to go ahead and assume that Andrew does another stupid thing and Kelly gets Wooed.

[Zuleikha]

Another possibility is if Stephen's boot fragments the tribe into unclear factions, maybe Kelly ends up voted out as a safe vote for everyone because they all know she needs to get voted out eventually. It's not like she's tightly aligned to Savage. They voted together for one vote that Kelly thought was an everyone in the tribe voting together type of thing.

 

I refuse to believe Ciera was dead man walking and so her only choice was to shake things up loudly and obnoxiously. Many past contestants have been in her shoes and managed to work their way into a new alliance.

Abi voted for Tasha and per the bootlist, is going to make it to top 6. Of course, Ciera's only choice wasn't to shake things up loudly, but there's no reason to believe that being quiet and passive was a better choice either. Alliances are bound together through either friendship/loyalty or mutual self-interest. If someone needs her vote to make a move, someone needs it, and Ciera's willingness to vote against the Brolliance and play hard can only be a good thing.