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Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods


caracas1914
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Not surprised it dropped. They usually do after the premiere anyway. But I wouldn't be surprised if the flash-forward put some people off. I know it took the shine off the episode for me and one of my colleagues was like 'Oh, well, I don't wanna watch anymore now.'

I'm afraid that Arrow's curse, audience-wise, is the way the writers imo break the momentum (see: after S2-A, after S3-01). Moreover and still imo, you can play with the audience when the audience trusts you, not when they were -seemingly- underwhelmed, to say the least, by the previous season.

Of course, it's only two episodes in the season so there's no way it's a significant number and no way below zero it can show a trend. Personally, this season is more attractive than S3, considering there's two third of OTA working for me as opposite to zero third last year at this point, where I stopped watching. But I think that playing with the audience could be a risky bet in the end, rating-wise.

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I'm afraid that Arrow's curse, audience-wise, is the way the writers imo break the momentum (see: after S2-A, after S3-01). Moreover and still imo, you can play with the audience when the audience trusts you, not when they were -seemingly- underwhelmed, to say the least, by the previous season.

Of course, it's only two episodes in the season so there's no way it's a significant number and no way below zero it can show a trend. Personally, this season is more attractive than S3, considering there's two third of OTA working for me as opposite to zero third last year at this point, where I stopped watching. But I think that playing with the audience could be a risky bet in the end, rating-wise.

 

 

I think a lot of fans were maybe burned from s3. That was a tough season. And a drop after episode 1 is pretty standard. I remember 302 had a pretty big drop after the season premiere last year and I think the lowest demo of the season. It happens. It also happens when the audience feels played with and the flash-forward did feel manipulative. I know why they did it - to get people talking and create suspense - but that doesn't work for everyone.

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I think a lot of fans were maybe burned from s3. That was a tough season. And a drop after episode 1 is pretty standard. I remember 302 had a pretty big drop after the season premiere last year and I think the lowest demo of the season. It happens. It also happens when the audience feels played with and the flash-forward did feel manipulative. I know why they did it - to get people talking and create suspense - but that doesn't work for everyone.

I think it's encouraging that the drop was only a tenth this season for ep.2. Arrow has imo a chance to stay above 1.0, at least, so I hope it delivers.

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Can't post this week's Twitter trends since, for the first time in several episodes, Arrow didn't reach the Nielsen Twitter TV Ratings Daily Top Five. (The shows that did: American Horror Story: Hotel, Empire, The Westbrooks, Law and Order: Special Victims Unit, E:60.)

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Yeah, I went to check the Nielsen's twitter trends yesterday and noticed that Arrow wasn't there.  Every season two episode made Wednesday's top five list last season, I'm certain of that because I was actually keeping track of that during the second season.    

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I have an Arrow twitter list that I only look at during live airings [it clocks about 450 people between creatives, journos, and fans], and it was a lot more active this week than last, but there was a catch -- during the premiere, everyone *fandom* was using hashtags and character names appropriately. This week it was A LOT of complaining/mocking Laurel, and people neither tags those tweets nor use her name correctly -- and they do it on purpose, as to not promote her in anyway.

Edited by dtissagirl
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True... I did see a lot less proper tagging this week. And I must admit, I am careful about how or who I tag depending upon what is in my post. Not because I want to promote or not promote somebody/thing, but because if I am just venting & its negative ~ I don't want/need that to go to certain people or be part of a trend/hashtag.

 

It is kinda interesting to observe the trending & twitter behaviors, esp. now that it is relevant to the ratings. I can only imagine how tedious & yet fun the social media person in charge of it at Arrow/CW must find their job.

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I always tag every TV tweet I ever post, but I do it out of respect for the people who follow me, who might have muted the show tag until they've watched it. I know I'm being tracked by Nielsen because of that, which makes me sorta uncomfortable, but I'd rather not be an ass to my friends.

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I always tag every TV tweet I ever post, but I do it out of respect for the people who follow me, who might have muted the show tag until they've watched it. I know I'm being tracked by Nielsen because of that, which makes me sorta uncomfortable, but I'd rather not be an ass to my friends.

I didn't even know that was possible. I only thought you could mute people not tags. Then again, I really only use Twitter to talk about entertainment, sports & pop culture. Most of my friends don't even have twitter. So the hundreds of random people that follow me have to deal with my rantings & ravings. I hope they don't mind my viewing habits. But if they did I guess they could just unfollow me. No harm, no foul.

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I didn't even know that was possible. I only thought you could mute people not tags. Then again, I really only use Twitter to talk about entertainment, sports & pop culture. Most of my friends don't even have twitter. So the hundreds of random people that follow me have to deal with my rantings & ravings. I hope they don't mind my viewing habits. But if they did I guess they could just unfollow me. No harm, no foul.

 

Yeah, I don't think the official app allows you mute tags, but a bunch of the unofficial ones do.

 

I only use Twitter to talk about TV/music too, but my timeline = real life friends + fandom people I met like a decade ago. So I know most everyone who follows me.

 

I use the Twitter Lists feature to keep track of specific fandom chatter, because you don't have to follow people to add them to lists. And they can be made private, which I prefer.

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Another possible factor: Sara's return has been heavily promoted/discussed since at least February, meaning that even casual viewers probably would not have been surprised by it, unlike last week's Quentin reveal, or even Damien stopping arrows in midair - that was in some of the trailers, yes, but it's very possible that casual viewers didn't see those.

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Let's record the Nielsen Twitter ratings for posterity:

 

Unique audience (000): 569

Impressions (000): 1914

Unique authors (000): 9

Tweets (000): 40

 

This week, Arrow was defeated on Twitter by American Horror Story: Hotel, Empire, and Jimmy Kimmel Live, but did edge out over Supernatural.

 

All of these, including American Horror Story: Hotel were completely eclipsed by Twitter users focused on the Mets crushing the Cubs. Since this was brought up in another thread, American Horror Story: Hotel did defeat the number of tweets about Women's Soccer, United States vs. Brazil, but more people tweeted about that than about Arrow or Supernatural.

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Oh, so there was a game on when Arrow aired. Well, they did pretty good with the ratings then, all things considered. Still holding from last year too. Actually I think the demo is slightly better this year.

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I think large drops can be referenced as disinterest/anger from the fans but little drops especially in the "normal" mouths mean nothing. There really has been no large ratings drop. Arrow has been steady for a while except last year's Cross over episodes got a large jump.

 

Arrow does no promo. The Flash Cast have done talk shows and Arrow cast promotional budget must be zero. Fans do it (and online media sites do it but they also write up other shows).

Edited by tarotx
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The thing is Arrow scored a 0.9 last year against the playoffs for 303. So, Arrow getting a 0.9 for the big playoff game isn't unusual at all.

I saw a tweet yesterday to MG where a fan was claiming that Arrow lost 1 million viewers because of Olicity which is just factually FALSE (unless he's claiming from S1 which is just stupid). MG responded, something like is Olicity code for Playoffs? I wish he would have backed it up with numbers but I don't think he follows them closely.

I did the math, I have all the numbers for Arrow and SPN. First 3 episodes of Arrow 3 averages 0.9 and 2.53 million viewers. First 3 episodes of Arrow S4 averaged 1.0 and 2.51 million viewers. Arrow is up in the demo (which I attribute to pulling in a younger audience post Flarrow) and down a miniscule amount in viewers.

I don't remember season 1 but episode 4 in both S2 and S3 scored 1.0 against the World Series (game 2 of the WS). I wouldn't be shocked if Arrow S4 came in at 0.9-1.0 only because it's been 29 years since The Mets won a WS.

Pretty sure no one is freaking out over the 0.9 it's actually expected.

Edited by Morrigan2575
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I'd agree that at least one 2013 ratings low - "Crucible" - can be blamed solely on baseball. Total viewers went like this:

 

Broken Dolls - 2.89

Crucible - 2.37, aired October 30, 2013

League of Assasins - 2.80

 

There's a rather obvious drop, then recovery, there. October 30, 2013 also happened to be game six - the final game - of the 2013 World Series between the Red Sox and the Cardinals. Leaving aside that the Red Sox play in Boston, Game 3 of the Series was won on an obstruction call which almost never happens in the Major Leagues, which was pretty controversial and generated increased interest in the Series.

 

This Wednesday is Game 2 of the World Series, which features the New York Mets for the first time in 15 years, and the Kansas City Royals, who were there last year. I really don't want to predict the ratings this time around, but I do think it's possible that many New Yorkers will be more interested in the Mets than in Arrow.

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The only time I can maaaaybe infer a ratings drop happened because of a shippy moment on the show is when Oliver and Sara hooked up at the end of 213 [1.01 in the demo], and not a single episode from 214 to 223 rated higher than .90.  And 219-220 were the lowest rated episodes Arrow ever had.

 

HOWEVER: sports directly interfered with the 15% drop from 213 to 214 -- due to the Winter Olympics, the CW decided to skip three weeks from 213 to 214. Which: they freaking skipped February Sweeps. And the ratings took a hit.

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I have a friend who does these ratings maththings and he told me that even with higher ratings in s1 Arrow has pretty much had a similar share. Advertisers know what they will get from Arrow (slightly lower 18-24 years olds and highish men).

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I *heart* ratings math nerds so much. Maybe it's just me but I'm impressed that Arrow has held its ratings so steady because I would expect most shows would start to see trending decreases in their ratings this late in the series. Even with sports always messing up viewership numbers the show still hangs in there strong.

I don't worry too much whether The CW execs are happy. I suspect they are--especially since they still can't stop touting in the media the gains they've made in their precious male demos.

Edited by NumberCruncher
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IIRC, the ratings for S3 overall were higher and the ratings for the S4 premiere (401) were higher than previous season premieres.  Throughout this time period, Oliver loved only Felicity and then they were together (in fact Olicity was heavily promoted prior to 401 airing).  So if you're going to blame anything Arrow-related for the ratings drop since 401, maybe blame the gloomy flashforward gravesite scene.

Edited by tv echo
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Ratings only tell 1/2 the story in modern TV watching. It is almost a universally known fact that major sporting or TV events will interfere with the ratings. Networks & showrunners expect those drops. If the streaming & on-demand viewings remain the same or increase during these events then I think the answer is obvious that its not disinterest in a storyline but rather other stuff was on that people wanted to see live.

 

That being said, if the TPTB wanted to trend the ratings over the years, they could probably link it to certain storylines or characters to ratings drops. But that would be a lot of work that frankly I would prefer they put into the actual show. It also really can't be done until the end of the season to actually see what is a trend and what is an anomaly. If the ratings continue to drop than it indicates a problem. But the up & down is to be anticipated. And at the end of the day, the ratings generally rebound which means the writers naturally get the story back on course regardless of how much attention they pay to ratings. And overall, the ratings have remained stable on the whole which is a good thing. So long as there is not a major hemorrhage in viewership or a continuation of a down trend I think the show is ok. Its been 4 years, I feel like the advertisers know what they are getting when they buy ad time in Arrow. So long as the money comes in, i think the ratings will be only be one portion of the equation.

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This blogger just had a field day with someone who questioned her work. If anyone is interested I would check it out, she backs it up with her impressive credentials.

 

I love it. But the person who 'questioned' her was being hilariously ironic about 'credentials' because of reasons I can't state because we can't talk about other people :p

 

But hey, shoot me a message if you're curious. 

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This blogger just had a field day with someone who questioned her work. If anyone is interested I would check it out, she backs it up with her impressive credentials.

That smackdown was a thing of rare beauty. I will be interested in this weeks ratings as a result.

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Thank you.  :) 

 

See?! I'm trying :p Also you really should quit chain-smoaking. it's a bad habit :p

ETA And I just realized I said Chain-Smoaking and not Chain-Smoking........... Whoops :p

Edited by wonderwall
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