Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods

[lemotomato]

The total viewers numbers are still a little on the low side, but I'll take those ratings. Even if they adjust down they're better than I thought. I'm assuming people tuned in to see if LL was really dead dead dead. Hopefully the numbers will hold/get better next week.

Edited April 28, 2016 by lemotomato

[wonderwall]

I was actually expecting a 0.6 because even the Flash hit a series low when it came back from hiatus... 

Even though the episode (and I didn't watch it so I can easily block it out) wasn't strong, I'm glad it got higher ratings than 418. For science of course ;)

 

(it's so hard not to do fandom talk :p)

[tv echo]

‘Empire’ Ratings Halt Decline, ‘Beyond Borders’ Dips, ‘Arrow’ & ‘Heartbeat’ Up
by Dominic Patten  April 28, 2016 9:01am 
http://deadline.com/2016/04/empire-ratings-halt-fall-criminal-minds-beyond-borders-arrow-heartbeat-fox-1201745919/

Quote

Meanwhile, the CW’s Arrow (0.9/3) came back on an upward trajectory. A rather somber episode of the WBTV super archer series saw it up 12% in the key demo from its last original April 6. Also back after a break of sorts was Supernatural (0.7/2), which was even with its last original.

[Velocity23]

Final numbers

[Morrigan2575]

5 hours ago, lemotomato said:

The total viewers numbers are still a little on the low side, but I'll take those ratings. Even if they adjust down they're better than I thought. I'm assuming people tuned in to see if LL was really dead dead dead. Hopefully the numbers will hold/get better next week.

Low side? The ratings for one year ago this week were 0.9 and 2.39 million.  The ratings for this week 2 years ago was a  were 0.8 and 2.31 million.

 

That's pretty damn consistent and right on target for Arrow in April/May

[SmallScreenDiva]

Guggenheim seems happy enough. He'd tweeted 2 links about Arrow's ratings going up. And got sassy ;)

Also, he obviously means fourth-season show.

Edited April 28, 2016 by SmallScreenDiva

[apinknightmare]

Too bad he got the season wrong, haha. 

[Morrigan2575]

Sucking at math and numbers must be a job requirement to work on Arrow

[MuuMuuChainsmoker]

8 hours ago, wonderwall said:

(it's so hard not to do fandom talk :p)

All efforts at self restraint are appreciated by your beleaguered mods.  :) 

[BkWurm1]

11 hours ago, tarotx said:

Arrow actually did some internet promo this week. Paul was pretty much every where. So it wasn't as bad as when they came back last time with just the episode previews day of show.  

EK took over EW's Instagram feed as well, posting BTS pics. 

4 hours ago, Morrigan2575 said:

Low side? The ratings for one year ago this week were 0.9 and 2.39 million.  The ratings for this week 2 years ago was a  were 0.8 and 2.31 million.

 

That's pretty damn consistent and right on target for Arrow in April/May

Thank you!  That is exactly what I was wondering about. 

3 hours ago, apinknightmare said:

Too bad he got the season wrong, haha. 

Season four is in the can for them.  It's all about season five.  Oh what fresh hells do they have planned for us? 

2 hours ago, MuuMuuChainsmoker said:

All efforts at self restraint are appreciated by your beleaguered mods.  :) 

Ha, ha.  You didn't think two days off wouldn't come without consequences?  That said, I almost can't believe the amount of content generated since the site got back up.  :O

[MuuMuuChainsmoker]

3 minutes ago, BkWurm1 said:

Ha, ha.  You didn't think two days off wouldn't come without consequences?  That said, I almost can't believe the amount of content generated since the site got back up.  :O

The mods, while the site was down:  :P

 

[wonderwall]

2 hours ago, MuuMuuChainsmoker said:

All efforts at self restraint are appreciated by your beleaguered mods.  :) 

And now, after the site is back up after 2 days and the amount of comments people have wanted to share have been building up:

Mods:

[tv echo]

http://smoakandarrow.tumblr.com/post/143744535664/arrow-canary-cry-april-27-2016-ranks-3-on

[Morrigan2575]

If anyone is interested, ratings for this week over the last 3 years

S1 - 0.9 / 2.62

S2 - 0.8 / 2.31

S3 - 1.0 / 2.54

If we look at the episodes post "death"

S2 Post Moira's Death - 220 (death) 0.7, 221 - 0.8, 222 - 0.8, 223 - 0.9

S3 Post Roy's "death" - 319 ("death") 0.9, 320 - 1.0, 321 - 0.9, 322 - 1.0, 323 - 1.0

S4 Post Laurel's Death - 418 (death) 0.8, 419 - 0.9.

Looking at past performance (barring other factors like promoted Olicity sex scene in 320).  Arrow 420 should fall anywhere between a 0.8-1.0 looking only at year to year numbers for this week. If we look at post death episodes it should either hold the 0.9 (like S2) or possibly go up another tenth to 1.0 (like S3).

Although, the 1.0 in 320 could have been attributed to the Olicity Sex scene since 321 dropped back down to 0.9.

I'd say as long as the ratings are between 0.8-1.0 the show remains on track performance wise. If it stays between 0.9-1.0 it's "enjoying" a typical post death bump.

[tv echo]

Portions of a May 3, 2016 EW interview with Julie Plec (and others) where she talks about CW show ratings, the changing perception of The CW, and Arrow/Flash...

Quote

On the struggle with ratings
*  *  *
PLEC: The problem with ratings is that you can give yourself a million reasons why they are what they are. When I’m feeling like giving myself the reasons to feel okay — “It’s a night move that nobody knew about,” “It’s a premiere that nobody knew about.” So I can make that excuse all day long, or I could say nobody’s watching live TV. But that’s true for everybody so you can’t really target that as the reason for a ratings decline.
*  *  *
PLEC: But for Vampire, I would say there’s way too many places and other ways to watch TV and most 22-year-olds that you meet don’t own a television. Second is I think some genre and long-running series fatigue that is to be expected. That’s also one of the great things about working on the CW. Obviously they have to care about ratings to a certain degree …
WOOD: But they’ve proven that that’s not how they make decisions.
PLEC: They keep shows on in spite of ratings because they want the shows to live on. So we do get that freedom. I don’t think I’ve had anybody ever say to me, “Well, what are you doing for sweeps?” Every episode’s sweeps, you know? You don’t write better s–t because it’s November, because nobody’s watching it in November, they’re watching it on Netflix.
*  *  *
On how the perception of the CW is changing
PLEC: The press in the last two years has been so kind and benevolent toward the CW brand in a way that they used to be very dismissive and patronizing. That’s what’s been nice to see because none of us sit around and say, “So we’re making a CW show, guys.” No one is sitting around and being like, “Well I gotta look this way and feel this pretty and show my abs this much.”
*  *  *
PLEC: So Arrow and Flash, they do those shows very smartly and they spend money and they do them well. And they don’t say, “Oh we’re on the CW therefore we don’t have to try that hard.” They set out to make action sequences and superhero s–t that’s 10 times cooler than anything you see on TV and that’s their mark of honor. ...

Edited May 4, 2016 by tv echo

[wonderwall]

I really really really hope this episode gets a 1.0.in the ratings. This was such a fantastic episode. If not htis episode then the next one :)

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, wonderwall said:

I really really really hope this episode gets a 1.0.in the ratings. This was such a fantastic episode. If not htis episode then the next one :)

I don't think it will but it definitely deserves it!

[BkWurm1]

2 hours ago, Angel12d said:

I don't think it will but it definitely deserves it!

Yeah, wasn't the Flash down a bit?  I'll be happy if we can at least match season 2 demographics but I'm hoping for a .9 - not sure I think it will happen, but hoping. 

[Chaser]

I think a .9 wouldn't be unrealistic but I'm expecting a .8. I would love 1.0. I think that's what we got last year, but last year we had The Sex (As BIG Sam would say).

[Morrigan2575]

6 hours ago, BkWurm1 said:

Yeah, wasn't the Flash down a bit?  I'll be happy if we can at least match season 2 demographics but I'm hoping for a .9 - not sure I think it will happen, but hoping. 

The Flash Finals were 1.3 which is the same demo it got last week 

[Soulfire]

Ratings for #Arrow 4x20: Genesis -- 0.7M in the demo and 2.076M in total viewers.

[NumberCruncher]

Obviously wasn't going to have anywhere near the same ratings at 3x20 (for obvious reasons) but it's really interesting just how closely this season is matching S2's ratings which I know a lot of people consider "the best" season.  2x20 also got a 0.7 after Moira's death with 2.19M viewers.  Hopefully the final numbers show a bit of a bump but regardless the show is hardly hemorrhaging viewers as a lot of people/sites have claimed.

[looptab]

Too bad, this was a great episode.

[ARLES]

Hopefully it adjust to a .8

Flash has a habit of adjusting but Arrow doesn't really. The whole neilsen ratings system has issues but it is what it is. 

Just hope viewers don't adjust down bellow 2 million. 

[SmallScreenDiva]

This woman on Twitter created a predictor model for Arrow S4 ratings (after getting fed up with people who have no idea what they're talking about when they start interpreting ratings numbers to suit their agenda). Here's what tweeted last night:

 

Edited May 5, 2016 by SmallScreenDiva

[Starfish35]

I wish it hadn't gone down, for obvious reasons.  But 419 was not a good episode, so.....*shrug*  Diggle episodes tend to be higher (or at least that seems to be a trend I've noticed, but I would have to go back and actually check the numbers to see whether my impression is accurate) so I thought it might stay the same or go up.  I guess we'll see where it goes for these next three episodes.

Re: the tweet - Is that viewers she's talking about?  

Edited May 5, 2016 by Starfish35

[NumberCruncher]

I've really been fascinated by RillaCuthbert's analytics (partly because I'm a numbers nerd myself) and I'm not surprised that she's been so consistent in her models.  I think she does stats for a living so this is her bread and butter.  In one of her posts she compared Arrow's season-over-season ratings pattern vs. the general average of a CW show and it was pretty remarkable that Arrow hasn't really been showing the typical decline most shows on The CW usually see as their seasons progress.  

[Midnight Lullaby]

It's a pity that it didn't get better numbers because it was a good episode, even if I'm not sure those ratings are the CW's primary concern judging from the shows they renew and how happy they seem with numbers that would be judged as low from other networks.

Talking for myself the last episode didn't leave me with any eagerness to watch this one, probably because being indifferent to Laurel I felt quite apathetic towards it all, while after this one I'm really curious about the next.

[looptab]

I bet it'll go up on live+3/+7. Honestly I don't even know what to attribute this drop to, whether it's due to some people making good on their promises who stopped watching (and that actually making some impact) or to other causes.

[SmallScreenDiva]

14 minutes ago, Starfish35 said:

I wish it hadn't gone down, for obvious reasons.  But 419 was not a good episode, so.....*shrug*  Diggle episodes tend to be higher (or at least that seems to be a trend I've noticed, but I would have to go back and actually check the numbers to see whether my impression is accurate) so I thought it might stay the same or go up.  I guess we'll see where it goes for these next three episodes.

Re: the tweet - Is that viewers she's talking about?  

Yup, those are viewers. The overnight ratings came in at 2.07 so she is within the 95% odds she predicted.

4 minutes ago, looptab said:

I bet it'll go up on live+3/+7. Honestly I don't even know what to attribute this drop to, whether it's due to some people making good on their promises who stopped watching (and that actually making some impact) or to other causes.

It's that time of the year? Not sure either but it does kind of follow the trend of the next ep following a heavy Lauriver one going down in the ratings. *shrugs*

[tv echo]

As long as Arrow remains on the air (and Felicity remains alive), I'm happy.  

And Arrow is still the second highest rated show on The CW (the charts were not images, so the columns went out of alignment when quoted - you may want to go to the link to see the actual charts)...

CW 2015-16 Season Ratings (updated 5/5/16)
Published: May 5, 2016
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/cw-2015-16-season-ratings-38429/

Quote

Latest ratings data, sorted by the 18-49 demographic
CW TV shows 2015-16    18-49    Yr-to-yr    Viewers    Yr-to-yr 
                                          demo    change   (millions)  change
1    The Flash (renewed)        1.38    -4.22%    3.550    -7.54%
2    Arrow (renewed)    *    0.96    -4.89%    2.549    -7.66%
3    Legends of Tomorrow (renewed) 0.84        2.254    
4    Supernatural (renewed)    *    0.71    -12.50%    1.782    -11.77%
5    iZombie (renewed)        0.53    -19.04%    1.330    -24.21%
6    Containment        0.51        1.551    
7    The 100 (renewed)        0.49    -5.92%    1.355    -11.99%
8    The Vampire Diaries (renewed)        0.48    -33.95%    1.161    -24.60%
9    The Originals (renewed)        0.39    -34.13%    0.948    -27.66%
10    Jane The Virgin (renewed)        0.37    -22.28%    0.957    -20.28%
11    Reign (renewed)        0.31    -20.75%    1.021    -5.45%
12    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (renewed)        0.30        0.870    

Latest ratings data, sorted by total viewership
CW TV shows 2015-16    18-49    Yr-to-yr    Viewers    Yr-to-yr
                                          demo    change   (millions)  change
1    The Flash (renewed)        1.38    -4.22%    3.550    -7.54%
2    Arrow (renewed)    *    0.96    -4.89%    2.549    -7.66%
3    Legends of Tomorrow (renewed) 0.84        2.254    
4    Supernatural (renewed)    *    0.71    -12.50%    1.782    -11.77%
5    Containment        0.51        1.551    
6    The 100 (renewed)        0.49    -5.92%    1.355    -11.99%
7    iZombie (renewed)        0.53    -19.04%    1.330    -24.21%
8    The Vampire Diaries (renewed)        0.48    -33.95%    1.161    -24.60%
9    Reign (renewed)        0.31    -20.75%    1.021    -5.45%
10    Jane The Virgin (renewed)        0.37    -22.28%    0.957    -20.28%
11    The Originals (renewed)        0.39    -34.13%    0.948    -27.66%
12    Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (renewed)        0.30        0.870   

Edited May 5, 2016 by tv echo

[tv echo]

Here's Arrow's episode-by-episode ratings for S4 (and how this site calculated the averages used in the above charts - note the 420 numbers are not the final numbers, as the footnote indicates)...

Arrow: Season Four Ratings
Published: May 5, 2016
http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-four-ratings-38484/

Quote

Air date                         Episode     18-49     demo       Viewers       Viewers
                                                          demo    change    (millions)    change
Weds    10/07/2015        04-01          1.09       8.80%†     2.670          -5.65%†
Weds    10/14/2015        04-02          0.95     -12.41%      2.501          -6.33%
Weds    10/21/2015        04-03          0.89      -7.03%       2.402          -3.96%
Weds    10/28/2015        04-04          0.94       6.09%       2.643          10.03%
Weds    11/04/2015        04-05          1.06       13.09%     2.601          -1.59%
Weds    11/11/2015        04-06          0.92      -13.83%     2.298         -11.65%
Weds    11/18/2015        04-07         1.10       20.09%      2.691          17.10%
Weds    12/02/2015        04-08         1.38       25.45%     3.664          36.16%
Weds    12/09/2015        04-09         1.01      -26.81%     2.820         -23.03%
Weds    01/20/2016        04-10         1.09       7.92%       2.829           0.32%
Weds    01/27/2016        04-11         1.07      -1.93%       2.778         -1.80%
Weds    02/03/2016        04-12         0.92      -14.31%     2.475         -10.91%
Weds    02/10/2016        04-13         0.92      0.87%       2.445         -1.21%
Weds    02/17/2016        04-14         0.91       -1.08%     2.444         -0.04%
Weds    02/24/2016        04-15         1.02      11.16%      2.696        10.31%
Weds    03/23/2016        04-16         0.72      -29.53%     2.089        -22.51%
Weds    03/30/2016        04-17        0.86      19.55%       2.339         11.97%
Weds    04/06/2016        04-18        0.79      -7.36%       2.239         -4.28%
Weds    04/27/2016        04-19        0.88      11.35%       2.270        1.38%
Weds    05/04/2016    *    04-20      0.70      -20.72%       2.076       -8.55%
Weds            04-21        
Weds            04-22        
Weds            04-23        

Season averages    *                     0.96     -4.89%        2.549         -7.66%

Edited May 5, 2016 by tv echo

[foreverevolving]

I'm very worried about the ratings, even though I know the show is coming back, the ratings going down rather than up after finally getting rid of Laurel... I hope things will be better for the final few episodes, or that we'll see an uprise next season. I fear many people may be afraid to return to the show in the fear that they'll bring back Laurel like they've done other characters.

[tarotx]

It's hard to know about these ratings because there was basically no press for the episode and that made yesterday feel weird. We didn't even get the previews until late. Plus it is the first real episode after Laurel's gone. And historically a death of a major character has an impact - even on LOT after the Pilot part 2 with Hawkman dying and after 1.7 when it was thought Rory was killed by Snart. 

[looptab]

Now that I think of it, this episode had loosely the same treatment - promo-wise - and end results of 416. So...yeah.

[apinknightmare]

Yeah, I was just going to remind anyone feeling angsty about it that this happened just a little over a month ago: 

Edited May 5, 2016 by apinknightmare

[Guest]

I'm disappointed about the ratings because the episode was so good and it deserved higher than that. Honestly, I'd say it was one of the best of the season. But it's not a huge deal. And I don't think we can ever predict what caused it exactly. I'm sure it's partly due to some fans leaving after Laurel died. Partly due to lack of promo. Partly due to the time of year. Hopefully it bounces up a bit next week. :)

[lemotomato]

I wouldn't worry about the ratings too much. One episode doesn't make a trend, and 416, which also had an overnight of 0.7, came back to normal numbers when +3/+7 ratings came out.

Plus, this episode had next to no promotion. No interviews, and the few previews they posted came out late. Spoiler TV posted the preview clip one hour before the episode aired. The show trended all night on twitter, so they know that people are watching, even if it's not reflected in the Neilsens.

[BkWurm1]

If ratings are at least in part a reflection of the quality of the previous episode then the ratings make perfect sense since last week was such an odd mix of retcons and odd choices.  It was not an episode to inspire, but this one is. 

Edited May 5, 2016 by BkWurm1

[tv echo]

http://www.nielsensocial.com/nielsentwittertvratings/daily/

[NumberCruncher]

No need to worry.  These type of demos in the spring are completely normal.  Again, look at S2 vs. S4 and they are pretty comparable episode-by-episode.  

And has been discussed a thousand times, it's not like The CW cares anyway.  That's not where they make their money.  Besides, the male demo is still higher than the female demo and we all know that's the only ratings stat the network cares about when it comes to their superhero shows.

Edited May 5, 2016 by NumberCruncher

[NumberCruncher]

Final ratings didn't change.  0.7 and 2.07M viewers:  http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2016/05/05/wednesday-final-ratings-may-4-2016/

ETA:  If there are still people anxious about these numbers, there's a great post someone compiled over on Tumblr with various quotes regarding how CBS/WB views ratings for its CW shows:

http://noonecanknowmysecret.tumblr.com/post/143903957094/smoakandarrow-arrow-genesis-ranks-3-on

Just a sample:

Quote

“Yet he pointed out that the two entities that own The CW (CBS and Warner Bros. – The C … W …) produce the shows that air on the network. So as a whole, the owners still make money by selling programming to itself, and then to others. “The shows bring us more revenue than losses,” he says.” -Les Moonves

Quote

 

“Unlike the big four of CBS, ABC, NBC and Fox, The CW is not a network trying to make money on a grand scale off its live viewership. Rather, it was created as a vessel for 1st-run domestic broadcast. Why is that important? Because without somewhere to air first, there’s no way for television studios to achieve the syndication friendly number of 88-episodes necessary for profitable 2nd-tier syndication deals. The CW is a network created with the singular goal of getting the shows of its parent company to syndication qualifying numbers. That’s why most of its programming still runs traditional 22-episode seasons and why there’s never been outside programming from the likes of 20th Century Fox, NBCUniversal and ABC Studios featured on it...Live viewership matters very little to a network like The CW because that same network is paying very little in licensing fees. –Forbes

 

There are more examples.  The poster has even included links to the actual articles and interviews if anyone is interested.

Edited May 5, 2016 by NumberCruncher

[AyChihuahua]

I'm totally unconcerned. The last episode sucked ass, so they kind of deserved it. Also, there was no promo, AGAIN, and it's spring, and the CW doesn't care a lot about ratings, and yadda yadda. It was an excellent episode, the reviews largely reflect that, I'm pretty confident Live + will bring it up to normal numbers, and next week will be much better. 

[Guest]

The last episode that had a 0.7 was 416 and that jumped up a lot in Live+ ratings. I guess the only annoying thing about the drop is that it's inaccurately used as some kind of proof in certain arguments. But I'll say no more.

[AyChihuahua]

I avoid those kinds of arguments. There's just no point.

[NumberCruncher]

4 minutes ago, AyChihuahua said:

I avoid those kinds of arguments. There's just no point.

^^^This.  Considering how the whole week-to-week ratings swings being due to X or Y have been debunked a thousand times already with this show (or any CW show in general) if they haven't learned after 4 seasons then I think it's a lost cause at this point.  

[lemotomato]

I think of it this way:

- The CW doesn't care about ratings
- Arrow is renewed for season 5 and will likely keep going until SA doesn't want to be on the show any more
- My favorite characters are still alive on the show
- LL is still dead dead dead and most likely will stay that way

I understand feeling validated by ratings because who doesn't like when their opinions are "confirmed" by numbers? But in the case of CW shows, they really don't matter after the second season or so and they don't affect the EPs decisions on storylines, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 

[Morrigan2575]

^^^^ excellent post!

[CabotCove]

Quote

this season is matching S2's ratings which I know a lot of people consider "the best" season. 

Not to me, they dropped the ball on Slade, making his sole motivation be about Shado and other missteps. 

And on 4 x20 ratings, congrads Guggie, "OTA" rocks!

Edited May 6, 2016 by WildcardC

[looptab]

It really does.:)

Sigh.