S32.E10: Semi-Finals

[statslady]

OK so someone upthread asked if there had ever been a black woman winner, and I believe someone replied correctly that there had only been one (Amber Riley).  There have been three non-white female winners (Nicole Scherzinger, Kristi Yamaguchi, and Laurie Hernandez) who were not black.  This all sent this retired statistician down a rabbit hole exploring the demographics of DWTS winners, and then including 2nd and 3rd place (this list is readily available on Wikipedia).  

Overall, the largest share of winners have been white women (39%).    For winners only, the next largest share is black men (19%), followed by white men at 16%.  For either gender, there have been 3 Asian winners and 3 Hispanic winners (10% each) and 1 (Jordan Fisher) of mixed race.  

Looking at the top 3 places combined, still 39% white women but now 28% white men for a total of 67% white.  18% black men and 5% black women for total of 24% black.  This is not too far off of the overall US population (75% white, 13.6% black).  Hispanics seem somewhat underrepresented (4% of top 3 but 19% of the population) as do Asians (3% vs. 6.3%).  

Take all this with a grain of salt - it's based on me looking at the list on Wikipedia and making some assumptions about race and ethnicity (and gender in a couple of cases - here I'm going with 'sex assigned at birth' which is what we were using in studies that I was working on when I retired this year).  

So if we used race and gender alone to predict the winner, bet on Ariana or Alyson.  An Xochitl win would improve the Hispanic representation so that would be nice.  Jason and Charity hard to say.  

Personally, I think I'd be fine with any of them although while I like Alyson she is not the best dancer in the group.  Maybe I'll actually vote in the finals... 

Ask me your DWTS stats questions, apparently I have nothing better to do (or miss analyzing data more than I thought I would).  

[crowceilidh]

Quote

And Val had a partner, she played the daughter of Christie Brinkley in real life, who cried so hard at elimination, she left snot all over his shirt.  Literally. 

I can't remember who you are talking about but I don't think you can deride someone who has been working so hard for such a time for crying at bad news.  I remember at Dance Camp one summer, my dancemaster tried to correct something I was doing and I was so distressed that I was screwing up the most basic step of Baroque Dance that I cried for two hours.  And I was 48.  I was so profoundly exhausted that his comment just cracked me and I couldn't stop.  These people are physically going through the wringer and it can really affect you mentally.

[Andiethewestie]

18 hours ago, Door County Cherry said:

Last night I speculated that they had decided to make the finale a 3 hour finale which is why no one went home. They need content. Today, the cable guide updated to reflect that it's now a 3 hour finale instead of the original 2 hour finale.  

Krystyn Burtt basically said this. Due to the strike the network is hurting for content so the show gets expanded. 

[bravofan27]

On 11/29/2023 at 10:10 PM, FilmTVGeek80 said:

 

I also don’t agree about submissive women doing best. Amber was fierce. Ditto Rumer Willis, Normani, Meryl Davis, Nicole the Pussycat Doll who won, JoJo Siwa, etc. Jennifer Grey wasn’t submissive, either.

I don't mean they weren't powerful and fierce. But they were submissive in their role and played the female in the dancing. It's hard to explain. I'm not doing it well. They tried hard to connect emotionally with their partner during the dance. 

[bravofan27]

7 hours ago, jennifer6973 said:

Amber Rile

Yes, she was awesome, and paired with Derek, as was Jennifer Grey. Amber was herself but she also really connected with the audience and seemed like she was having such a fun time. Her energy was contagious. 

[realdancemom]

7 hours ago, bravofan27 said:

Yes, she was awesome, and paired with Derek, as was Jennifer Grey. Amber was herself but she also really connected with the audience and seemed like she was having such a fun time. Her energy was contagious. 

Even though Amber came in with lots of Glee fans, this is how you get new fans. Technically, Corbin was the better dancer the whole season. He was a nice guy but had a Disney persona. So he was proper, a little reserved,etc. in contrast to Amber's contagious personality. I think finale night sealed Amber's win. Corbin did make a mistake in his fusion dance. His freestyle was good and he would have probably won on a different season. Derek choreographed a unique freestyle with Amber that used her knowledge of stomping. It was the better freestyle. 

This is why I hate that the finale is three hours on one night. Previously, I always voted for the best freestyle. That's who I want to win this season. Now, I don't vote since I live in the West coast. Wish the finale was spread over two nights. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by realdancemom

[boyznkatz]

It doesn't make sense to assume the viewership would drop if they dumped a low vote getter. If Xochitl or whoever was going to get eliminated, why would the ratings drop if no one voted for her? I don't think anyone left is bringing in massive ratings or social media interaction. The only one who was actively bringing social media attention to the show was Harry, and he is gone. I do agree with previous posts that they might have had five people to help him get in the finals.

13 hours ago, crowceilidh said:

I can't remember who you are talking about but I don't think you can deride someone who has been working so hard for such a time for crying at bad news. 

They were probably talking about Sailor Cook, Christie Brinkley's daughter. I thought she was a decent dancer and had the potential to improve, but she got eliminated early.

Edited December 1, 2023 by boyznkatz

[Andiethewestie]

On 11/29/2023 at 8:47 PM, bravofan27 said:

IMO, Daniella is an absolute gorgeous dancer. She's so tall, yet she is so limber, and I love the shapes she makes when she dances

Newsflash Dani is the shortest pro. She dances tall and fills the space but she's very petite 

[Andiethewestie]

1 hour ago, realdancemom said:

This is why I hate that the finale is three hours on one night. Previously, I always voted for the best freestyle. That's who I want to win this season. Now, I don't vote since I live in the West coast. Wish the finale was spread over two nights. 

This is exactly right. Unfortunately,according to the network they need content on Tuesday because scripted Tv shows are behind due to the strike.  Monday night is filled with Football so that's the scheduling difficulty.  
 

They say however that anytime zone can vote online during the broadcast, so I guess if you had Hulu or Disney Plus? 

https://www.dgepress.com/abc/pressrelease/live-from-hollywood-its-the-season-32-finale-of-dancing-with-the-stars-on-abc-and-disney/

[iMonrey]

13 hours ago, Andiethewestie said:

Krystyn Burtt basically said this. Due to the strike the network is hurting for content so the show gets expanded. 

But whatever normally airs after DWTS was originally scheduled to air after the finale, so it's not a content issue. It's not like they didn't have anything to put on afterwards. This appears to have been a last minute decision, for reasons we may never fully know.

[BrainyBlonde]

18 hours ago, sd dude said:

During one of the early skybox interviews, Gleb was in the background lifting up Riley's arm to apparently draw attention to what looked like a diamond tennis bracelet.  No real idea of the significance but that didn't stop me from instantly creating my own narrative - I wondered if his point was that she was wearing a gift she had received from Harry (which is something Harry would do, even if inappropriate), and Gleb was basically trying to embarrass her (which I'm sure is something Gleb would do, because he's Gleb and he's probably jealous because he would love to make her a notch on his own bedpost). 

Well, it's all my imagination, but it doesn't seem like an unrealistic story to me. 

What really concerns me is I'm hoping that the showmance is not a realmance and that Riley has enough common sense to not get involved with that reality famewhore (I mean Harry, not Gleb, although I hope she's cautious around him as well).  If she really is immature and foolish enough to give Harry the time of day, I hope big sis will give her a good talking to.  Maybe watching S1 of Too Hot to Handle will be informative as well, if they allow that to stream in the Arnold household.

Harry did gift Rylee a Van Cleef & Arpels bracelet that cost close to $15K (apparently, reality stars make A LOT more money than I thought they did!). Also, he joined Rylee and the Arnold family in Malibu for Thanksgiving dinner. Still, I think he considers her to be like a little sister and they're not dating. I just don't get a romantic vibe from them at all. Harry and Rylee attended a Lakers game with Alan Bersten earlier this week and I felt like Harry and Alan were both treating her with the same teasing older brother vibe. Don't prove me wrong, Harry!

And for the record, Rylee said in an interview earlier this season that she had watched Harry on Too Hot to Handle, so she knows what's up with him. I think they're just two young people who bonded while working together and are having fun hanging out as friends.

My sincere hope for Rylee, who is incredibly talented, is that she's brought back next season and is given a partner who has at least some modicum of musicality or dance ability.

I am excited for next week's finale and have NO idea who I'm going to vote for as I pretty much love everyone who's left on the show. I guess I'll be basing my decision on who slays the Freestyle!

[boyznkatz]

30 minutes ago, BrainyBlonde said:

My sincere hope for Rylee, who is incredibly talented, is that she's brought back next season and is given a partner who has at least some modicum of musicality or dance ability.
 

I would like that as well. She is cute and brings some youth to the pro side. I don't think she and Harry are dating, either. He definitely seems more like her big brother. His family is in Australia I assume, so it makes sense that he spent Thanksgiving with the Arnold family.

If they are dating, however, good for them. They are consenting adults and maybe he doesn't want to be a player anymore. Those reality shows are all heavily scripted anyway.

Edited December 1, 2023 by boyznkatz

[Lady Calypso]

I know I probably should be more worried about a 5 person finale, even with three hours (you KNOW they're gonna run out of time and start the results at 10:57pm) but I like all 5 finalists a lot, so I'm going to be happy with seeing all of their freestyles. Obviously, some have a better chance than others to win, but I'm just happy to see them all make it. I haven't fully liked a F5 where I'd be fine to see any of them win in the few seasons I've watched; the closest I'd say is season 25 for me. 

I think all five have a decent reason to win and nobody would be a terrible winner, not even Alyson. 

1. Alyson - She's grown SO much from her first week. Imagine week 1 Alyson doing what week 10 Alyson has been. It's almost unfathomable. Obviously, she was NEVER going to improve to the point of becoming the new frontrunner who outshines everyone else. She'll always be the weakest of the pack in ways, but DWTS has been about growth to some extent and Alyson has grown the most this season. She started out not being able to really dance at all, and in 10 weeks, she's been able to do the basic steps and Sasha's pushed her with SOME tricks and complexities. Again, she was never going to become some stellar expert in dance styles, but she's improved leaps and bounds and she's such a joy to watch. 

Her Jive with Sasha wasn't good; I think she's still going to have her weaknesses, and Jive is certainly that. She does do much better in hold, hence why her Waltz was well done (and deserved higher scores than her Jive). 

Can Alyson win? Maybe, maybe not. But if she did win, although it would suck for the other celebs, it wouldn't be undeserving because of the massive improvements she's taken since her first week, where she was slated to be an early boot if not for celebs like Adrian and Jamie Lynn. 

2. Ariana - I think Ariana's been the most consistent, as delivered with everything she's had, and has not had many weak dances (the samba was weak but that was mostly due to Pasha's weird choreography). Her ability to flow into each dance style is fairly good.  She's had some great dances and she's definitely worthy of a win.

As for her dances this time, her Jive wasn't great, but understandable as to why Pasha had to slow it down to compensate for Ariana's back injury, but her Foxtrot was extremely well done. I really enjoyed watching her Foxtrot and can see why they ended on it.

3. Charity - She's been the best technical dancer of this season, easily. Her lines are fluid and beautiful, her movements are always graceful, and she's put in a LOT of work to fix the emoting problem that, quite frankly, every Bachelorette has had on this show. She's not 100% there yet but I imagine learning how to emote during a performance is something that takes time. 

Her dances this week were beautifully done. They were probably her best dances thus far. It made me very excited to see what Artem gives her for the finale.

4. Jason - He's one who has gone up and down in terms of his ability. He's strong in Latin, and weak in ballroom, and there were two or three weeks where it seemed like he plateaued and lost his momentum. But he has bounced back, he has shown that he's able to do what Daniella gives him and even if he's not proficient in every dance style, his performance aspect can make up for that. He still struggles, for sure, but he's bouncing back and he's enjoyable to watch.

He had some great dances this time around. His Paso Doble was awesome to watch; he really kicked it into high gear and brought the attack and passion to the dance. His Viennese Waltz was a bit shaky at times, but still lovely.

5. Xochitl - Xochitl has an ability to really shine in every performance. She came in to the show with minimal experience, and has shown that she can deliver what Val has given her. She has had some fantastic dances throughout the season. She's the celeb who showcases the most energy when she's on the floor. Her performance skills elevate each dance she's in and even masks some of the mistakes she does make. But Val's given her some really tough choreography and she has passed each one. 

Her Waltz was fantastic this week, (her Samba, less so, and potentially overscored by a couple of points) and she really is enjoyable to watch. 

I really wouldn't hate if any of these finalists won, which is such a new thing, since there's usually someone I'm rooting against in the finale.

[realdancemom]

5 hours ago, boyznkatz said:

It doesn't make sense to assume the viewership would drop if they dumped a low vote getter. If Xochitl or whoever was going to get eliminated, why would the ratings drop if no one voted for her? I don't think anyone left is bringing in massive ratings or social media interaction. The only one who was actively bringing social media attention to the show was Harry, and he is gone. I do agree with previous posts that they might have had five people to help him get in the finals.

They were probably talking about Sailor Cook, Christie Brinkley's daughter. I thought she was a decent dancer and had the potential to improve, but she got eliminated early.

We never know what ABC or production is thinking. Overall, they care about ratings and attention which translates to advertising dollars. So I'm going to play along with conspiracy theories for fun. Maybe, they weren't trying to hold onto a specific contestant but a certain group. I'm talking about the Swifties. They had the most votes that night. For the freestyle, Alyson is doing a mashup which includes one of Taylor's songs. So maybe, they're hoping that they tune in again to watch. They did vote for Alyson and Xochitl since they saw that they went to her concert. This might get Sasha's first win.

[realdancemom]

2 hours ago, boyznkatz said:

I would like that as well. She is cute and brings some youth to the pro side. I don't think she and Harry are dating, either. He definitely seems more like her big brother. His family is in Australia I assume, so it makes sense that he spent Thanksgiving with the Arnold family.

If they are dating, however, good for them. They are consenting adults and maybe he doesn't want to be a player anymore. Those reality shows are all heavily scripted anyway.

They need some youth on the male side too. Derek, Mark, and Val used to get the minors but they're getting older. Val mentioned that he's 20 years older than Xochitl. I think Alan and Brandon are the youngest. Maybe, it's time to promote Ezra.

[babyhouseman]

My conspiracy theory(do I need a tinfoil hat?) is the bachelorette got the least votes, and they're pushing her because it's an ABC show. I don't like the Bachelor franchise so I may be biased. If she wins, I'm going to be a full-time conspiracy theorist. lol 

 

[Andiethewestie]

Yeah I'm bummed for the finale. I'm not sure I want to watch another huge disappointing outcome. I think they're jobbing Jason as they have all season. Going first yet again to keep the bar low, Gave him Foxtrot, could have gave him Samba - gave Ox Foxtrot where her lowest scoring dance was Cha Cha.
So we know this is just to pound him down. He's not scored a 10 yet in Ballroom and he'd bring the house down in Samba now that he's over the worst of his illness. In fact the show should have given  Xochiti the score she deserved on the Samba and then she could do that for her Redemption along with Jason.  Of course that will never happen.

I guess that's the price he pays for allowing him to sing in the finale. But Jason don't open your mouth! Such disrespectful crap to tell a singer. I'm sure he's tired of all the bullshit and just ready to promote his record if he can.  
 

In retrospect they did him dirty He was the guy who had to wear the god awful heavy make up for the Monster night, and had to like it. He was really good on the Jazz, actual experts were amazed , but that major smack down by the show hurt and getting sick really took a toll. They put him up against Barry and everyone hated that. At least losing to his friend made him not to be the asshole the show wanted people to think. Even on line some tried to think he was shading Harry.

 

 In the end I've downloaded his new record and I love the guy's back catalogue. He's a lot more gracious  than I would be. 

If Pasha wins that's great, he deserves it.  I just had absolutely no interest in any other contestant and I know I won't follow their careers  I'm just not into  bartenders or cheerleaders I have followed  others who  took dance seriously, like Zendaya, or Jordan and some of the athletes and enjoyed learning about them on the show. 

Now, should Jason and Dani pull off something great and win it fantastic, but the odds are stacked. I've seen this picture before.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Andiethewestie

[coffeebean]

On 11/30/2023 at 7:47 PM, LennieBriscoe said:

Jason was perfect and awesome in his Paso Doble. 🕺 👏👏👏

But Xochitl performed the most beautiful  and moving Waltz ever. 💃 👏👏👏 🤩

She should never, ever have been in the two bottom couples (regardless of the unique results). What is wrong with the voters?!** 🧐  🤷‍♀️  Xochitl has consistently been the most mesmerizing to watch (and Val 😉)!

**Such it is for any competition that allows for audience votes. I should be used to it by now (looking at you, "American Idol" and when Mario Lopez lost "DWTS"):

 

LOVE Karina Smirnoff. She is my favorite pro of all time.

On 11/30/2023 at 7:50 PM, Andiethewestie said:

Definitely something is up and it's unfortunate that we can't ever know who should have left week 10 

ETA: Krystyn Burtt said on Twitter that votes will carry over to week 11 

Reading about Kristyn Burtt, I miss SYTYCD so much!

[Andiethewestie]

Looks like Dani has brought in al_pop to assist on the freestyle. If they don't win they are going to have a dope freestyle. It could be part jive/swing part hip hop vibe and Jason will kill it, no doubt.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Andiethewestie

[Andiethewestie]

10 hours ago, coffeebean said:

.

Reading about Kristyn Burtt, I miss SYTYCD so much!

https://www.ajc.com/life/radiotvtalk-blog/exclusive-foxs-so-you-think-you-can-dance-season-18-shooting-in-atlanta/FGSPDK2AABAHTJQ3ZBYBZ42G3M/

[coffeebean]

8 hours ago, Andiethewestie said:

https://www.ajc.com/life/radiotvtalk-blog/exclusive-foxs-so-you-think-you-can-dance-season-18-shooting-in-atlanta/FGSPDK2AABAHTJQ3ZBYBZ42G3M/

YAY!!! I found this after reading your link.......

SYTYCD coming back!

So sorry for going off topic but this is very important to me.

Many thanks to Aniethewestie.

[Andiethewestie]

No worries. Glad to help 😀There's no word on the judges panel this time but since Allison Holker Boss has returned to do little tik toc dances it would be great to see her expertise on the panel, to honour her late husband. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Andiethewestie

[Andiethewestie]

So there's a scuttlebutt that Jason singing on the finale is somehow an advantage to a win. Some fans of others are upset on Instagram.
 

That's not necessarily the case in the history of the show Nelly sang in the finale, as Daniella's partner he placed 3rd. Season 29 And Nick Carter sang in the finale and wound up placing 2nd to Bindi Irwin.
 

Jordan Fisher did a song and dance in the finale of season 25 with the pros and Debbie Gibson so it showcased the winner and an also ran at the same time.

Jason's song is perfect for the show but it definitely doesn't guarantee the Mirrorball 

[A.Ham]

On 11/29/2023 at 10:10 PM, FilmTVGeek80 said:

Normani from Fifth Harmony was third. Mya, I think was runner-up. 

Both of which were my favorites to win and not just be third place / runners up. Mya lost to Donny Osmond, whom I did not connect with, but he had enough voters that did, apparently, in that season. Normani placed third to David Ross, which was shocking to me; Rashad Jennings, the winner that season, was in my opinion not as technically good as Normani, but he clearly had more people voting for him and he had charisma as well. And he had the football background which seems to be a positive for the fans of this show.

[realdancemom]

21 minutes ago, A.Ham said:

Both of which were my favorites to win and not just be third place / runners up. Mya lost to Donny Osmond, whom I did not connect with, but he had enough voters that did, apparently, in that season. Normani placed third to David Ross, which was shocking to me; Rashad Jennings, the winner that season, was in my opinion not as technically good as Normani, but he clearly had more people voting for him and he had charisma as well. And he had the football background which seems to be a positive for the fans of this show.

I did not watch the season with Donny and Mya. I was rooting for Normani to win but I was ok with Rashad winning. He worked hard for that win. I think he put in double the practice as everyone else. Plus Emma got her first win. Back then, I didn't want David Ross to win until Bobby Bones won. After his win, I said on this forum that if somebody can't really dance, I would rather have a nice guy like David win.

[iMonrey]

Quote

It doesn't make sense to assume the viewership would drop if they dumped a low vote getter. If Xochitl or whoever was going to get eliminated, why would the ratings drop if no one voted for her?

I think it's possible Xochitl would have been eliminated and the show doesn't want to lose Val's freestyle for the finale. They may also assume Xochitl wasn't getting the votes simply because everyone already assumes she will win so they vote for someone else. I did. I have never voted for Xochitl. I give my votes to the ones the judges usually shit all over because I figure they need the help.

Then again @babyhouseman's theory that ABC wants their Bachelorette in the finale sounds plausible too.

[DEL901]

46 minutes ago, iMonrey said:

I think it's possible Xochitl would have been eliminated and the show doesn't want to lose Val's freestyle for the finale. They may also assume Xochitl wasn't getting the votes simply because everyone already assumes she will win so they vote for someone else. I did. I have never voted for Xochitl. I give my votes to the ones the judges usually shit all over because I figure they need the help.

Then again @babyhouseman's theory that ABC wants their Bachelorette in the finale sounds plausible too.

All we can be sure off was that if Alyson was 5th, there wouldn’t have been 5 finalists.  

[Andiethewestie]

So Maks is going to be the new Ballroom Judge on #SYTYCD according to Krystyn Burt's Twitter feed. 
 

And Harry is joining the DWTS tour which is a bummer. 

 

 

[Andiethewestie]

Sneak peak Charity freestyle 
https://www.reddit.com/r/dancingwiththestars/comments/18assf8/charity_freestyle/

 

[boyznkatz]

16 hours ago, iMonrey said:

I think it's possible Xochitl would have been eliminated and the show doesn't want to lose Val's freestyle for the finale.

His freestyles aren't very good, though. I don't even remember a single one that he did, except for Laurie Hernandez which was pretty good. My tin foil hat still thinks some of the pros tell TPTB that they won't come back unless they make the finals. 

15 hours ago, Andiethewestie said:

So Maks is going to be the new Ballroom Judge on #SYTYCD according to Krystyn Burt's Twitter feed. 
 

And Harry is joining the DWTS tour which is a bummer. 

 

 

Maks just needs to go away. I wouldn't pay to watch Harry, but it makes sense they included him to get money from all the Harry/Rylee shippers.