Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[KingOfHearts]

Would it be more difficult for Once considering Disney licensing their characters?

[BoPeeps]

Dunno.  Probably.  Disney loves controlling their brand. 

The bigger stumbling block could be the involvement of Adam and Eddie.  Their writing is...as annoying as hell quite often.  We don't really know how much of that annoyance has come from Disney involvement or because they are often lazy as hell in their writing/continuity/courage.  Probably a combination.  They have great ideas but just lousy follow through.

New writers and a different creative team taking over on cable or Hulu, Netflix, etc. would open everything up to a whole new audience and ratings potential. Big money involved.  Disney has made some more adult oriented themes in their Touchstone productions.  Taking OUAT away from the family hour could open the door to a whole 'nother depth of entertainment using the same great premise of twisted Fairy Tales.

•  

[orza]

34 minutes ago, BoPeeps said:

I know that Longmire was bought by Netflix and it was quite improved all around  My hope ( and frustration) with OUAT was that it could possibly be bought out from A&E and might have different show runners and writers who might offer a more cohesive (and adult oriented) script and plotline that could touch upon so many of the things/story lines that creative fans have come up with over the course of it's run!

Having Disney as the controlling brain child and keeper of the bottom line has, in my mind, hindered the actually quality more than it has helped.

Hope springs eternal. Heh

A&E don't own the show, ABC does. That's why they can use the Disney characters so freely. Licensing of Disney characters would be expensive for a third party. My guess is that several cast members will want to leave the show when they have fulfilled their contractual obligations, making it a lot less attractive for future investment.

[Shanna Marie]

I'm not sure they'd want to move this show away from family hour or revamp it to be more "adult." I saw a thing shared on Facebook that showed what the most popular TV series in each state was, and the only place Once Upon a Time showed up was Utah, which says a lot. It's pretty well established as a family-targeted show, and it's pretty late in the game to change courses. They'd lose the family viewers that have stuck with the show and probably wouldn't gain a lot of new viewers looking for more adult content. The situation is complicated enough that you'd need to have seen the first three seasons to really get it (even if nothing from 4 and 5 seems to have mattered in the long run), and it would be whiplash going from those seasons to something more adult-oriented. There probably is a market for a more adult-leaning fairy-tale based show, but changing this one after six seasons would be a very unwise move. New showrunners might improve things just by improving the writing, pacing, etc., but I can't imagine that drastically changing the target audience and content would help grow an audience. This show does need to be better, but I don't think it needs different parameters.

The Disney thing is also a factor. The fairy tale characters may be public domain, but the names of the dwarfs are a Disney thing, and then there's Belle. They'd have to license that from Disney. Meanwhile, Disney is using the show to promote its overall brand, so probably isn't going to let it go elsewhere, especially if it's going in a new direction. The shows that have been picked up by other channels or by streaming services tend to have been cult shows that the networks lost interest in, not long-running mainstream shows with dwindling ratings. Nashville was a perfect fit for CMT's brand. I don't see any other network that would benefit like that from this show.

[BoPeeps]

I realistically agree with most of your comments, Shanna, but in my dream world, I would still like to see it (heh)!  It is floundering where it is...a long running, stagnant commercial for promoting Disney films. The ill-used potential is really... a let down.

(maybe I should just hope for a cable quality spin-off)

[TheGreenKnight]

Yeah, I think this continuing on Netflix is very unlikely, but I'd follow if it did, of course.

[Tiger]

It will be interesting to see how deep into December we get new episodes of Once.  Because right now it looks like aside from Grey's and Murder, all of ABC's shows will be airing new deep into December and then some coming back with new episodes the first week of January.

Dungey and Sherwood are abanonding Lee's strategy of having most of the showa on hiatus in Dec & Jan.  They want to take advantage of the higher HUT levels and holiday ad revenue.  

[Mathius]

Last night's got a 0.9.  Ladies and gentlemen, we are officially in Wonderland territory.

[sharky]

We've reached a new milestone. It went fractional! And this despite the fact that it was a good episode. Let's hope it adjusts up or the only thing we'll be able to brag about is that it's steady, which isn't all that great. I do fear that if the numbers start to consistently be below 1.0 there will be some serious cancellation talk. I still think we will get a season 7 but a full season 7 is looking less likely. 

[Curio]

Wonderland was getting these numbers several years ago, though. Every year, we have to take into account more and more people cutting the chord and not watching live. So we can't exactly compare ratings from a show that was on the air three years ago to a show on the air now.

With that being said, the ratings for this season still aren't great. I imagine the total whiplash of each episode being so thematically different doesn't help—there isn't much of a cohesive story going on right now. The only main thread tying everything together is Emma's anticlimactic fate about dying, and a scene-chewing Evil Queen who randomly speaks with a southern belle accent. Otherwise, every episode is practically a standalone. One episode is Jekyll/Hyde, another is Cinderella, another is Captain Nemo. It's like watching a new show every week, which some people might enjoy, but the format doesn't lend itself well to consistent ratings.

[Hookian]

Actually TBH I don't think that's too bad. Let me explain.

Let's not forget what also was on last night. The World Series, and not just any World Series but a world series that has had multiple articles about how it's broken ratings records all across the board.

A World Series that has had multiple articles state how across the board they have taken at least -.1 or -.2 from every show that has aired opposite it.

Any show that was airing against The World Series was going to suffer. I thought it would be lower. It'll probably bounce back next week, with no World Series as competition.

[Shanna Marie]

8 minutes ago, Hookian said:

Let's not forget what also was on last night. The World Series, and not just any World Series but a world series that has had multiple articles about how it's broken ratings records all across the board.

Plus, the Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday-night football, a rivalry that tends to get national attention. The game didn't start until half an hour into the episode, but do you start watching a drama that you're going to switch away from halfway through? My Dallas-area friends who normally say something about this show on social media were quiet about it last night. I suspect there will be a bump in delayed viewing for this one.

[Hookian]

The World Series game delivered a 6.9, that's a big difference from last year. It's taken a chunk of everything it's aired against. I thought OUAT was gonna get lower then what it did. Most shows facing this World Series has lost .2 on the demo. OUAT only lost .1 and will likely bounce back next week and may even adjust in the finals.

[CCTC]

I wonder if the cursed goat that caused all the Cubs problems will show up with the untold stories people.

[InsertWordHere]

Can confirm. I watched the World Series instead of OUaT last night. 

[maryle]

I totally understand that the world serie this week really affect the rating and I understand Once could still adjust 1.0 in the final. But, last week rating were flirting with .9  even if we do go up to 1.0 next week there definitely be other .9 soon enough.

They probably be back for season 7 but it is more by default than anything else. I have to admit I am fine with 

Yesterday, was a real good episode but overall the season is really underwhelming even the Savior stuff is not creativea as it could be. the bad rumbelle romance make OQ like a real love story. 

[TheGreenKnight]

4 hours ago, sharky said:

We've reached a new milestone. It went fractional! And this despite the fact that it was a good episode.

I did not think it was a good episode at all. (And neither was the episode before it.) How do you quantify that though?

[sharky]

Good point. I think the hype before an episode can definitely help -- this was Hook centric and Colon did interviews for it. But I wonder how much that helps and how much it's just for hardcore fans. 

[Mathius]

Regardless of whether one thinks it was a good or bad episode, the marketing for it was awful.  Everyone who watched the promo when it first aired at the end of 6x05 remarked that it gave absolutely zero indication as to what the story of the episode even was.  It was all just Hook on the Nautilus from the flashback, and with no further context than that - especially nothing concerning the present day - why the heck would people even care?

Edited October 31, 2016 by Mathius

[Curio]

20,000 Leagues Under the Sea also isn't hugely popular where it would draw interested viewers in...Jules Verne fans are a smaller niche market. I was surprised when my bookworm friend who watches OUAT didn't even know who Jules Verne was, but I think that has more to do with her young age than her intelligence.

[YaddaYadda]

They expect people to know the classics like the Count of Monte Cristo and Captain Nemo when that's just not the case.

Edited October 31, 2016 by YaddaYadda

[KAOS Agent]

Personally, I think early season episodes are more likely to be watched if the promo for the next week is interesting. For example, the Cinderella ep might have gotten eyeballs because it's Cinderella and they were still developing the overall story, but now six episodes in, the main story arc makes zero sense and isn't particularly interesting which means people aren't interested in continuing. As fewer and fewer people tune in each week, you've got a smaller pool to draw from and last week's episode was particularly slow and did little to advance the story. Then the promo for this week was more randomness of Hook on the Nautilus that doesn't entice someone to watch live. They didn't even include Aladdin or Jasmine in the promo. Promos for next week say it's Evil Queen v Snowing in both flashbacks and the present. Tune in live because we've never seen that before. 

[Shanna Marie]

It's possible that anything after the Aladdin and Jasmine episode would have dropped, since they hyped that from the beginning of the season, and then it turned out to be a letdown. If that's what kept you tuning in, you might have been out after that.

[jjjmoss]

Unrounded: 0.915 for the hour: 0.962 then 0.867.

Quote

A World Series that has had multiple articles state how across the board they have taken at least -.1 or -.2 from every show that has aired opposite it.

Not Crazy Ex Girlfriend, Vampire Diaries, Caught on Camera, Survivor, Frequency, Middle, Chicago Fire, Flash, No Tomorrow, Blue Bloods. Arrow, SVU, Real O'Neals, Shield, NCISNO up.

Edited October 31, 2016 by jjjmoss

[YaddaYadda]

57 minutes ago, Shanna Marie said:

It's possible that anything after the Aladdin and Jasmine episode would have dropped, since they hyped that from the beginning of the season, and then it turned out to be a letdown. If that's what kept you tuning in, you might have been out after that.

That episode was pretty bad, and I think people wanted to tune in for the romance, instead they got something else entirely. I watch all the episodes live and I'm completely turned off by Jasmine.

[maryle]

Always funny trying to determine what cause rating drop for me I listened to the grim reaper.

1) one episode fluctuation is not that important is the trend . Why I noticed that the previous episode rating was a weak 1.  The trend was already there baseball or not.

2) I believe that for the g.a audience the on going main story line don't hold them enough. This season is not really steady despite being stuck with the core fans now. I hope they bounce back next week but still is very soon to be weak 1 and .9 

3) promo , resume in TV guide and previous episode all have a impact but it become personal bias for us to determine which factor the most for one singular week.

Anyway, this week I honestly believe the baseball game had a impact because everyone in media said it earlier but the negative trend is there. 

More personal opinion I can't noting that 5a who was not just with the loyal base was much more steady in the rating. So, now I know that the story line was more like than this year. The data cannot lie.

[Hookian]

3 hours ago, jjjmoss said:

Unrounded: 0.915 for the hour: 0.962 then 0.867.

Not Crazy Ex Girlfriend, Vampire Diaries, Caught on Camera, Survivor, Frequency, Middle, Chicago Fire, Flash, No Tomorrow, Blue Bloods. Arrow, SVU, Real O'Neals, Shield, NCISNO up.

A lot of those are CW shows and...they can't possibly get any lower. So I have no idea why you bring those up. There were also articles that came out this week on how this is one of the most historic World Series and how it's breaking ratings records.

[KAOS Agent]

This is from a Deadline article about the ratings:

"Well, with what could have been a World Series winning Game 5 for the Cleveland Indians on Fox and a Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles march-up on NBC, there really wasn’t a lot left over for the rest of primetime on the Big 4

Not one of ABC’s shows was even able to reach a 1.0 rating among adults 18-49 in the fast affiliate results. With drops of a tenth or more each, Once Upon A Time (0.9/3), Secrets & Lies (0.6/2) and Quantico (0.6/2) all fell to series lows against the sports heavyweights plus the second week of Season 7 of The Walking Dead on cable. On CBS, 60 Minutes (1.3/4), NCIS: LA (1.2/4), Madam Secretary (0.8/2) andElementary (0.6/2) were all down too, with the NCIS spinoff taking a 29% drop from its NFL overrun assisted performance of October 23."

[jjjmoss]

Because you said something that was false, so I was providing evidence about why it was false. 15 pieces of evidence against "every show that has aired opposite it."

Edited November 1, 2016 by jjjmoss

[TheGreenKnight]

...Uh, what? 60 Minutes, NCIS:LA, Madam Secretary, Elementary, Secrets & Lies, Quantico, Caught On Camera, Dateline, Shark Tank, 20/20, MacGuyver, Hawaii Five-O, The Goldbergs, Speechless, Modern Family, black-ish, Designated Survivor, Survivor, Criminal Minds, Code Black, and Chicago Black all lost viewers along with OUAT. The two CW shows, Blue Bloods, Blindspot, Law & Order: SVU, Arrow, and Frequency also lost overall viewers, just not in the 19-49 demo.

Edited November 1, 2016 by TheGreenKnight

[jjjmoss]

"A World Series that has had multiple articles state how across the board they have taken at least -.1 or -.2 from every show that has aired opposite it" was about 18-49. But thanks for your helpful "...uh, what?"

[TheGreenKnight]

All those shows listed in my second sentence did lose viewers in the demo. And actually, we should throw in The Vampire Diaries, too, because it's .4 was adjusted down to .3. And looking at Tuesday shows' final ratings, This Is Us, The Voice, NCIS, American Housewife, Bull, Fresh Off the Boat also dropped in the demo against the World Series. L&O:SVU and The Real O'Neals are the only shows that I see that went up.

Edited November 1, 2016 by TheGreenKnight

[Hookian]

14 hours ago, TheGreenKnight said:

All those shows listed in my second sentence did lose viewers in the demo. And actually, we should throw in The Vampire Diaries, too, because it's .4 was adjusted down to .3. And looking at Tuesday shows' final ratings, This Is Us, The Voice, NCIS, American Housewife, Bull, Fresh Off the Boat also dropped in the demo against the World Series. L&O:SVU and The Real O'Neals are the only shows that I see that went up.

Exactly my point and what matters is the demo not the total number of viewers. That's always been the case.

[tri4335]

I was watching PTI, a sports commentary show, on Monday and they even mentioned the ratings for baseball. Because the Cubs are in the series it has done better then previous years' WS and it even affected NFL numbers.

[maryle]

The real question is will it stabilize to 1.0 until the break. I think they do have a core a very loyal viewers.

[Mathius]

They did prior to 4B as well, and that arc drove many of them away.  We might be looking at the same situation here.

[YaddaYadda]

I like how they've essentially doubled-down with another version of 4B.

[Free]

4 hours ago, Mathius said:

They did prior to 4B as well, and that arc drove many of them away.  We might be looking at the same situation here.

I feel like people keep saying that it's steady each season.

[Mathius]

42 minutes ago, Free said:

I feel like people keep saying that it's steady each season.

Which is wrong. The odd-numbered seasons (1, 3 and 5) have been steady, but 2 and 4 suffered major drops.  And even in seasons 1 and 5 there were minor drops at some point (In S1, it was after "Dreamy", and in S5, it was after "Birth" & "The Bear King").  Season 3 was the absolute steadiest. 

Edited November 2, 2016 by Mathius

[TheGreenKnight]

Generally speaking though, the show is steady. Only when the show is unusually bad (2B and 4B) has there been an unexpectedly large drop.

[Mathius]

That is true in that even after the drops happened, what was left of the audience held on for the remainder of those arcs and beyond 'til the next drop.

Here are the live ratings averages for each arc:

S1 - 9.90 / 3.2 *
2A - 9.70 / 3.2
2B - 7.60 / 2.3
3A - 7.20 / 2.1
3B - 6.95 / 2.1
4A - 7.40 / 2.5
4B - 5.65 / 1.8
5A - 5.05 / 1.5
5B - 3.80 / 1.1

* = At the start, S1 was at 10.95 / 3.5, so it lost 1.05 live viewers and 0.3 points respectively as it went on.

And S6 so far is at 3.60 / 1.1, so at the moment things are still relatively steady from 5B.

All in all, the biggest drops we've had are:

2A to 2B - down 2.10 / 0.9

4A to 4B - down 1.75 / 0.7

4B to 5A - down 0.60 / 0.3

5A to 5B - down 1.25 / 0.4

2B still reigns supreme unless you also credit 4B for the drop between 4B and 5A, in which case 4B lost 2.35 / 1.0 and thus breaks 2B's record.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Mathius

[Hookian]

Just in case people were wondering, EVERYTHING dropped last night on TV.

[CCTC]

I am guessing anyone going against Game 7 better not get their hopes up too high.

[Shanna Marie]

26 minutes ago, Hookian said:

Just in case people were wondering, EVERYTHING dropped last night on TV.

I noticed that CBS punted last night. They originally had new episodes listed and promoted, but then ended up showing reruns.

[Tiger]

Tentatively, Once will air new episodes on Nov 27, Dec 4, 11, and 18.  

Dec 11 or 18 may be a double.

[YaddaYadda]

11 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Tentatively, Once will air new episodes on Nov 27, Dec 4, 11, and 18.  

Dec 11 or 18 may be a double.

I actually saw the ABC schedule and they have Once airing at 9pm on Nov 20th.

[KAOS Agent]

So the AMAs are only an hour long? I don't think so. The AMAs are definitely airing on ABC on the 20th at 8/7c.

[YaddaYadda]

3 minutes ago, KAOS Agent said:

So the AMAs are only an hour long? I don't think so. The AMAs are definitely airing on ABC on the 20th at 8/7c.

I didn't know the AMAs were on, and I don't know what to tell you other that the unpaid intern is sleeping at their desk. They don't even have a complete schedule for Nov 13th. 

Edited November 3, 2016 by YaddaYadda

[Tiger]

11 minutes ago, YaddaYadda said:

I actually saw the ABC schedule and they have Once airing at 9pm on Nov 20th.

Nov 20th is the American Music Awards.

The schedule I saw had "TBD" for all four hours on the 13th, which is weird.  They have stuff penciled in for every Sunday through Jan 1, except Nov 13.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Tiger

[jjjmoss]

Impressive to see 3 shows not going down a single tenth last night, and This is Us going up 53% from its lead-in [/only going down a tenth despite Voice being a recap ep].