Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Hookian]

I think we can rest comfortably IMO for a OUAT S7. Have you seen the ratings for ABC shows over the past week. It's pretty horrible.

[Mathius]

Especially if the Aladdin episode draws higher numbers and/or the ratings stay steady up to the winter finale.

[KingOfHearts]

There's been advertising for Aladdin every single week and they're just how showing. That might hurt the appeal somewhat, imo. They're kind of old news and I'm sure if viewers have been looking for it, they've been let down.

[Mathius]

As said before, 5A scored a steady 1.5 average, and the show got renewed before 5B even aired.  It may be the same here if "6A" holds steady.

[Camera One]

3 hours ago, Mathius said:

Yeah, I could definitely see the Aladdin stuff always being planned as part of the Untold Stories since it fit (plus we saw Arabian people there in the S5 finale), but it being made into a major recurring arc and THE focal point of marketing (seriously, was there any S6 marketing focused specifically on the Evil Queen or on other Untold Stories characters? It's been all about Aladdin, Jasmine and Jafar since Comic Con) reeks of executive meddling......in a good way, mind you, since the Aladdin stuff already seems much better than what they had going on before, and is a better potential viewer draw.

I definitely agree the Aladdin stuff seems to be a much better potential viewer draw.

The main poster for S6 was all about The Evil Queen.  She also figured prominently in the first promo "Did you think getting rid of me was going to be that easy?"

And then later on, they began to tack on the "And don't forget we have Aladdin!" to every promo and trailer there was.

Hopefully people stuck around for 4 weeks, but maybe they never learned the lesson of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"...

One of the forummers in another non-Once message board that I am on said that she and her husband couldn't even finish the Jekyll and Hyde episode and just turned it off, even though they enjoyed Cinderella.  Who knows if they will remember to come back for Aladdin.

Edited October 22, 2016 by Camera One

[RadioGirl27]

The initial ratings are 1.0 and 3.35 million viewers.

[Mathius]

OUCH.  Not good for an episode that was hyped in the promos every week since this season began.

[Artsda]

ABC as a whole was low. OUAT was actually best out of the night.

 ABC's Sunday Slate Goes Low - http://tvline.com/2016/10/24/once-upon-a-time-ratings-season-6/

Edited October 24, 2016 by Artsda

[Mathius]

And see, that's why, regardless of length, we'll get one more season after this.

[jjjmoss]

Yes, yesterday's prelim 0.99 still puts it in the top half of their dramas.

[Hookian]

1 hour ago, Mathius said:

And see, that's why, regardless of length, we'll get one more season after this.

Yep. And everyone is expecting all their new dramas to bomb as well. Much like Conviction and Notorious.

The best new drama Designated Survivor which premiered at a 2.5 rating I believe, is down to a 1.6 already. That's ridiculous.

OUAT is still at the top half of their dramas and network average it's at a B.

Edited October 24, 2016 by Hookian

[YaddaYadda]

11 minutes ago, Hookian said:

OUAT is still at the top half of their dramas and network average it's at a B.

And it's in its 6th season. I wouldn't be surprised if ABC does a spin off once they retire the mother ship.

[daxx]

1 hour ago, YaddaYadda said:

And it's in its 6th season. I wouldn't be surprised if ABC does a spin off once they retire the mother ship.

If they let Goodman and Espenson head it I vote yes. Otherwise I may pass.

[Souris]

Unrounded half-hour breakdown: 0.973/0.998 with 0.986 average.

[TheGreenKnight]

5 hours ago, Hookian said:

Yep. And everyone is expecting all their new dramas to bomb as well. Much like Conviction and Notorious.

The best new drama Designated Survivor which premiered at a 2.5 rating I believe, is down to a 1.6 already. That's ridiculous.

Yes, and I'm expecting DS will be even farther down by the time May rolls around.

[KingOfHearts]

1 hour ago, daxx said:

If they let Goodman and Espenson head it I vote yes. Otherwise I may pass.

If A&E can't touch it, it might actually be good.

[Tiger]

ABC is in full blown panic mode today over the total collapse of its Sunday night.  

Allegedly there's a plan afoot to 'save' Quantico with certain forces at the network and the mouse blaming its collapse on this show and S&L.  The fact that they actually really advertised this ep and folks didnt show up may the final nail in the coffin.  

[YaddaYadda]

3 minutes ago, Tiger said:

The fact that they actually really advertised this ep and folks didnt show up may the final nail in the coffin.  

You mean advertised the Once episode?

I don't know, I didn't really see anymore advertising than usual, unlike the way they actually advertise Quantico and S&L. Quantico is actually just a pretty bad TV show.

If anything, I think the bait and switch for Aladdin and Jasmine might have turned people off.

[Shanna Marie]

7 minutes ago, YaddaYadda said:

I don't know, I didn't really see anymore advertising than usual, unlike the way they actually advertise Quantico and S&L.

I watch the local news on the ABC affiliate at noon and 6 on weekdays and in the evenings on weekends, and every day there's a promo for Quantico and Secrets and Lies. The only time I ever see a Once promo is on Sundays. That may be because Quantico and S&L are more "real world" ripped from the headlines type stories that are more likely to appeal to news watchers and they show the Once promos during entertainment programming. I remember seeing a lot of promos during the news for the Frozen arc, though.

[Mathius]

20 minutes ago, YaddaYadda said:

I don't know, I didn't really see anymore advertising than usual

They put a plug for this episode at the end of each new episode promo ever since the 6x01 promo.  So yeah, it was heavily advertised.

Edited October 24, 2016 by Mathius

[YaddaYadda]

5 minutes ago, Mathius said:

They put a plug for this episode at the end of each new episode promo ever since the 6x01 promo.  So yeah, it was heavily advertised.

okay, this part I agree with. But that's no different than what they do for other shows when something "big" is about to happen. 

[Mathius]

Right, and my point is that now that the "big" thing in questioned happened, it got the lowest viewer turnout of the season.  That's pretty bad.

[maryle]

I do believe the drop is sooner than a lot of people expected to be. Because it affects all ABC show we could believe the walking dead Marathon could be a factor. The only thing saving Once is the overall mess at ABC. I have difficulty believing they will move Once at 9. Maybe the rumor are from Quantico fans? 

I did try Quantico it seems in what I usually like but after could not pass episode 5 it was more ridiculous than Once.  I admit to worry about Next week because there big football game. 

[Tiger]

7 minutes ago, maryle said:

I do believe the drop is sooner than a lot of people expected to be. Because it affects all ABC show we could believe the walking dead Marathon could be a factor. The only thing saving Once is the overall mess at ABC. I have difficulty believing they will move Once at 9. Maybe the rumor are from Quantico fans? 

I did try Quantico it seems in what I usually like but after could not pass episode 5 it was more ridiculous than Once.  I admit to worry about Next week because there big football game. 

Look I think Quantico is awful, but the renew/cancel is a lot more complicated than 'x show is in the top half of the dramas and doing better than y and z'. The politics alone are mind numbing.  

ABC/Disney wants to be in business with Priyanka Chopra and wants an anthology series, so I can easily see Once being scapegoated for the nights failure.  

So Im not sure what will happen, but I gaurantee the original plan of slotting Time After Time after Once in Mar will be dropped.

[Souris]

1 hour ago, Tiger said:

ABC is in full blown panic mode today over the total collapse of its Sunday night. 

How do you know that? Not saying it's not accurate and warranted, but what's the source?

As for advertising this ep, ABC has been advertising Aladdin & Jasmine all season without actually delivering them, so IMO it lost all impact.

Edited October 24, 2016 by Souris

[Hookian]

1 hour ago, Tiger said:

ABC is in full blown panic mode today over the total collapse of its Sunday night.  

Allegedly there's a plan afoot to 'save' Quantico with certain forces at the network and the mouse blaming its collapse on this show and S&L.  The fact that they actually really advertised this ep and folks didnt show up may the final nail in the coffin.  

I never saw any advertisements for this episode while watching ABC. I see promos for S and L and Quantico every single day.

 Every single ratings expert has this show as a likely renewal and with a network average of a B on a network that is doing horrible I don't think it's anywhere near the final nail in the coffin. ABC has bigger fish to fry then OUAT. They'll give OUAT one more season.

And save Quantico? LOL don't make me laugh, it's a horrible show and delivers horrible ratings. It should be cancelled.

Edited October 24, 2016 by Hookian

[Hookian]

53 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Look I think Quantico is awful, but the renew/cancel is a lot more complicated than 'x show is in the top half of the dramas and doing better than y and z'. The politics alone are mind numbing.  

ABC/Disney wants to be in business with Priyanka Chopra and wants an anthology series, so I can easily see Once being scapegoated for the nights failure.  

So Im not sure what will happen, but I gaurantee the original plan of slotting Time After Time after Once in Mar will be dropped.

Bottom line is they're not gonna cancel one of their strongest dramas in an already dying drama line up. It's ranked 3rd and who knows how far Designated will drop by May. It's already at a 1.6 when it premiered at a 2.5. 

I'm gonna listen to ratings experts over you though and they all say OUAT has high chances of being renewed. With a network average of a B it's a no brainer.

And I can guarantee for you that Time after Time is gonna bomb, no matter where it goes. As it's already predicted to.

Edited October 24, 2016 by Hookian

[Free]

On 10/22/2016 at 2:54 PM, Camera One said:

I definitely agree the Aladdin stuff seems to be a much better potential viewer draw.

The main poster for S6 was all about The Evil Queen.  She also figured prominently in the first promo "Did you think getting rid of me was going to be that easy?"

And then later on, they began to tack on the "And don't forget we have Aladdin!" to every promo and trailer there was.

Hopefully people stuck around for 4 weeks, but maybe they never learned the lesson of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"...

One of the forummers in another non-Once message board that I am on said that she and her husband couldn't even finish the Jekyll and Hyde episode and just turned it off, even though they enjoyed Cinderella.  Who knows if they will remember to come back for Aladdin.

The Frozen bandwagon seemed to be their last trump card to play because since then, it's been all over the place.

1 hour ago, maryle said:

I do believe the drop is sooner than a lot of people expected to be. Because it affects all ABC show we could believe the walking dead Marathon could be a factor. The only thing saving Once is the overall mess at ABC. I have difficulty believing they will move Once at 9. Maybe the rumor are from Quantico fans? 

I did try Quantico it seems in what I usually like but after could not pass episode 5 it was more ridiculous than Once.  I admit to worry about Next week because there big football game. 

The arc is kind of boring and since it's gotten so repetitive, the audience doesn't have much of an incentive to return since they don't have much to offer in a while, people lost interest and left.  Next week is the World Series, I think.  I remember OuaT taking a hit last season near the end of the Camelot arc and I can't blame them given how disappointing things turned out.

2 hours ago, Tiger said:

ABC is in full blown panic mode today over the total collapse of its Sunday night.  

Allegedly there's a plan afoot to 'save' Quantico with certain forces at the network and the mouse blaming its collapse on this show and S&L.  The fact that they actually really advertised this ep and folks didnt show up may the final nail in the coffin.  

It's been declining for a while, ABC used to handily win Sundays too, so it's embarrassing especially since it doesn't seem like it'll get any better come Spring and then next year unless there's a miraculous turnaround.

[Tiger]

1) I know someone at ABC Studios.

2) Quantico is awful.

3) Time After Time looks awful.

4) Designated Survivor is literally killing it in C3, live+3 and live+7 and setting new alltime overall Dvr records every week.  

#'2 and 3 above have nothing to do with Once.  Further, a shows live, C3, live + 3 and live + 7 ratings are only a few variables in a very complex equation of what gets renewed and what gets cancelled.  As I said before, the politics alone are mind numbing.  The shows, producers, and stars that Lee and his regime had affection for are different than the shows, producers, and stats that Dungey and her regime have affection for.  

At the end of the day, Once is a six year old with rapidly dimmensing returns, increasingly limited new streams of revenue, and does not have producers or stars like Dungey is invested in.  

A 7th season is not a total impossibility, but folks shouldnt be banking it.

ETA: and if you believe the rumors that Bobby and Ginny, among others, want out, then Id actively bet against 7th season.  Frankly I have no idea if the rumors are true, but Im inclined to believe them especially regarding Bobby Carlyle.

Edited October 25, 2016 by Tiger

[Mathius]

6 minutes ago, Free said:

 I remember OuaT taking a hit last season near the end of the Camelot arc and I can't blame them given how disappointing things turned out.

Yeah, it happened after 5x08 ("Birth") and 5x09 ("The Bear King") aired on the same night.  5x10 and 5x11's numbers were significantly lower.

Quote

A 7th season is not a total impossibility, but folks shouldn't be banking it.

I'll bank on it only because I'm absolutely sure the catch is that it's the final season and A&E will be told that upfront with the renewal.

Edited October 25, 2016 by Mathius

[Free]

1 minute ago, Mathius said:

Yeah, it happened after 5x08 ("Birth") and 5x09 ("The Bear King") aired on the same night.  5x10 and 5x11's numbers were significantly lower.

Exactly, it took a sizable dip and it didn't recover ever since.

[Mathius]

19 minutes ago, Tiger said:

ETA: and if you believe the rumors that Bobby and Ginny, among others, want out, then Id actively bet against 7th season.  Frankly I have no idea if the rumors are true, but Im inclined to believe them especially regarding Bobby Carlyle.

I know Bobby might want out, but Ginny?  Where was this said?  (Not that I would blame her, given the absolute butchery of her character.)

[jjjmoss]

1 hour ago, Tiger said:

Look I think Quantico is awful, but the renew/cancel is a lot more complicated than 'x show is in the top half of the dramas and doing better than y and z'. The politics alone are mind numbing.  

ABC/Disney wants to be in business with Priyanka Chopra and wants an anthology series, so I can easily see Once being scapegoated for the nights failure.  

So Im not sure what will happen, but I gaurantee the original plan of slotting Time After Time after Once in Mar will be dropped.

For anthology, they have American Crime - their only program to win anything at the Primetime Emmys this year. S&L has no upside. 

[maryle]

First, I want to thank the one who despite my spelling mistakes take the time to read my notes.

Now, yes this season is mostly repetitive and boring and that the worst thing that a show can be.

But. little rant I will be piss if they screw Once over because they try to save a mediocre show if no guarantee of more success. It will be a slap in the face for the loyal fans of this show. Because of lot of fans hope to have a last season for booking everything. 

[MostlyC]

Please remain polite and civil.  Agree to disagree if you like, but there's no need to get riled up with each other.

And look!  A bunny! We don't want her to cry, do we?  She doesn't like it when people squabble.

[Souris]

46 minutes ago, Tiger said:

1) I know someone at ABC Studios.

A 7th season is not a total impossibility, but folks shouldnt be banking it.

I think it could go either way on S7. Network politics is definitely an issue. I feel like there has been a definite (negative) change in the amount of promotion for Once -- and its focus. What is most in Once's favor for a S7 is the overall putridness of ABC's ratings health in general. ABC has a ton of time slots to worry about and they're unlikely to cancel 80% of their dramas in one season. For that reason alone, I'd guess there will be a S7 -- perhaps an abbreviated one leading into some new midseason show.

I wish I knew whether the cast's contracts were for six or seven seasons; that would have a HUGE affect on the renewal chances, since salary renegotiations would likely be prohibitive unless some cast members leave. Tiger, do you know their contract lengths?

I just hope that if S6 is the last, A&E are given enough notice in order to wrap up the series in a satisfactory way (or as satisfactory as they're capable of).

[Tiger]

I've never been told anything about anyone specific actors contract.  All I know is that ABC Studios standard contract is for 7 seasons with the studio effectively at will to terminate at any time, and the yearly renewal is also their option so even if the actor lets say wanys to bail after season 4, theyre contractually bound if the networks opts-in.  

That said, my understanding is that 'name' actors are usually given concessions.  I wouldnt be surprised if Bobby, Ginny, and Jen had shorter contracts or opt-outs. 

Also, who knows when Emilie and Colin's contracts run since they werent regulars in season 1. 

Edited October 25, 2016 by Tiger

[Souris]

11 minutes ago, Tiger said:

I've never been told anything about anyone specific actors contract.  All I know is that ABC Studios standard contract is for 7 seasons with the studio effectively at will to terminate at any time, and the yearly renewal is also their option so even if the actor lets say wanys to bail after season 4, theyre contractually bound if the networks opts-in.  

That said, my understanding is that 'name' actors are usually given concessions.  I wouldnt be surprised if Bobby, Ginny, and Jen had shorter contracts or opt-outs. 

Also, who knows when Emilie and Colin's contracts run since they werent regulars in season 1. 

Thanks! I guess a lot depends on what concessions some of the actors may have.

[Curio]

6 hours ago, Souris said:

I just hope that if S6 is the last, A&E are given enough notice in order to wrap up the series in a satisfactory way (or as satisfactory as they're capable of).

 

It's almost too late for that at this point, since they're already writing/preparing scripts for the back half of the season right now. If ABC waits to tell A&E until December or January, that only gives the writing room enough time to change the last few episodes of the season, not the overall arc of 6B.

As terrible as this show is right now, I'm not ready for it to end this year. I'd take an abbreviated Season 7 where they don't try and throw everything at the wall and hope it sticks as they tie up every loose end the show has ever dropped.

[maryle]

The scary part is A. and E. told they do not write this year as possible final season that the biggest reason I want a final season the characters, the cast and the loyal fans of the show deserve a good ending and I don't feel we will get it this year at all.

[Hookian]

Quote

I'll bank on it only because I'm absolutely sure the catch is that it's the final season and A&E will be told that upfront with the renewal.

Same here. That's exactly what I think will happen. It's still the #1 show on Sunday nights, still is doing very well overall and much better then a lot of ABC's line up especially the dramas. To me it's a no brainer for a 7th and final season.

And as far as contracts it will not shock me if Bobby leaves at the end of this season IF they don't convince him which I'm sure if they tell him S7 is the last one he'll be more than willing to come back. 

The rest I'm sure will be up for it completely. So contracts is not something I am particularly worried for.

Edited October 25, 2016 by Hookian

[Hookian]

Let's also look at this from another standpoint.

OUAT delivers a 1.0 ATM and sure that probably will change but the facts remain the same.

There are only 3 dramas that deliver higher ratings one of which is a new one and who knows how far it will drop in the overnights by May.

Tiger, you should state that L3, L7 are irrelevant, cause they are. All that matters is overnights cause anything after that means that audiences are fast forwarding through the ads, which is counter productive to how the networks make money.  Hulu also helps in L3's but again to companies this number is irrelevant.

When it comes down to the big cut. You will have to cut all of these shows already and who knows how far Quantico will drop by May. Do we really expect them to keep a show that could go down to a 0.4 in the spring?

 

Notorious

Shameless

Agents of Shield

Time After Time(it's gonna bomb)

Secrets and Lies

Quantico

The Catch

American Crime

All of these shows perform less then OUAT(aside from Time After Time since that hasn't aired but looks horrible).  That is over eight shows and Starcrossed may be placed here as well as Imaginary Mary and Downward Dog.

Do we honestly expect ABC is going to get rid of over 90% of their dramas? That's why the chances are high for OUAT S7, especially if it's a shortened one.

Edited October 25, 2016 by Hookian

[jjjmoss]

If it keeps going down 32% the season would average around a .9, and a similar drop next season would make it around .6. So it's possible they would just give up a little like NBC with comedies mostly.

[Souris]

I think if there's a S7 they should (and likely will) announce upfront that it's the final season, in hopes of getting people to tune in out of nostalgia to see how it all wraps up.

We can't assume Time After Time will bomb, even if it's awful. MacGyver was at or near the top of many "will be canceled first" lists and it did shockingly well in the ratings. You just never know for sure.

[Mathius]

4 hours ago, Hookian said:

Notorious

Shameless

Agents of Shield

Time After Time(it's gonna bomb)

Secrets and Lies

Quantico

The Catch

American Crime

All of these shows perform less then OUAT

Exactly.  Most if not all of those will be going at the end of Spring, do you really think they'd ax OUAT along with them?

On the other hand, with them gone, there's no "competition" for OUAT in its 7th season, so everything points to that season being the last.

[Free]

14 hours ago, maryle said:

The scary part is A. and E. told they do not write this year as possible final season that the biggest reason I want a final season the characters, the cast and the loyal fans of the show deserve a good ending and I don't feel we will get it this year at all.

There doesn't seem to be much of a plan at all.

[KingOfHearts]

This seems like a show they would put exclusively on Netflix in shorter installments. That would do really well. I don't know how all that works though, so who knows how possible that is.

[BoPeeps]

Just tossing in speculation that may be slightly off topic but still interesting regarding future cancellation possibilities.

To those who might have a better understanding of the network mindset...is there a possibility (barring a current cast exodus) of OUAT ever being sold/picked up by cable or Netflix or Hulu etc.?

[Souris]

2 hours ago, BoPeeps said:

Just tossing in speculation that may be slightly off topic but still interesting regarding future cancellation possibilities.

To those who might have a better understanding of the network mindset...is there a possibility (barring a current cast exodus) of OUAT ever being sold/picked up by cable or Netflix or Hulu etc.?

Sure. If a show is canceled and the studio wants to shop it around and another outlet wants to pick it up, it's perfectly plausible. That happened with Nashville over the summer -- ABC canceled it and CMT picked it up for another season. It also happened in the past with The Mindy Project and some other shows that don't come to mind right now.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Souris

[BoPeeps]

I know that Longmire was bought by Netflix and it was quite improved all around  My hope ( and frustration) with OUAT was that it could possibly be bought out from A&E and might have different show runners and writers who might offer a more cohesive (and adult oriented) script and plotline that could touch upon so many of the things/story lines that creative fans have come up with over the course of it's run!

Having Disney as the controlling brain child and keeper of the bottom line has, in my mind, hindered the actually quality more than it has helped.

Hope springs eternal. Heh