Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[cappoe]

1 hour ago, coppersin said:

Maybe they're waiting to see how Agents of Shield does when it returns next week? Based on ratings, I would imagine either show would only last one more season, so they might be trying to decide which is a better stop-gap while they're seeing which new shows will stick around.

Pretty sure AOS is done. ABC has not promoted the show at all and it returns next week.

[Free]

19 hours ago, Tiger said:

The 'Hook killed Grandpa Charming' ep which hit a series low in live+same day with a 0.8, has gone up to a 1.3 in live+7. It's pretty remarkable because the show has been getting absolutely no lift in C+3, live+3, or live+7 since near the end of 5A.  

Before, during, and after the Frozen bump, this show was a dvr darling then at some in 5A people just stopped dvr'ing it.  

 

18 hours ago, Mathius said:

That's not a big deal.  0.8 to 1.3 isn't a huge increase, earlier episodes in this very season have had bigger.

But yeah, the Dark Hook twist killed the DVR audience, apparently.  When you look at the numbers, the drop-off is obvious.

The last 2 seasons have been atrocious, even by OuaT's problematic standards.

[Tiger]

1 hour ago, cappoe said:

Pretty sure AOS is done. ABC has not promoted the show at all and it returns next week.

They actually launched a whole campaign based on the new alternate/virtual story.  

[Tiger]

My friend that works at ABC Studios said big announcements are coming from ABC this week, possibly Thursday, but more likely Friday.  

She also said the casts and crews of all ABC shows produced by ABC Studios will be formally told about renewal or cancellation by the end of the week.

Apparantly there are tax issues, crew contracts, and other matters that have to be settled by the end of the second week of April.

[Curio]

15 minutes ago, Tiger said:

My friend that works at ABC Studios said big announcements are coming from ABC this week, possibly Thursday, but more likely Friday.  

 

Ah yes, the classic Friday news dump. Bad news is probably coming.

[Camera One]

Our love for "Once" can save the darkest ratings situation.  If The Evil Queen can have her happy ending, so can A&E.

[Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Camera One said:

Our love for "Once" can save the darkest ratings situation.  If The Evil Queen can have her happy ending, so can A&E.

I wonder if A&E made a wish in a fountain in Vancouver New York.

7 minutes ago, Curio said:

Ah yes, the classic Friday news dump. Bad news is probably coming.

Not necessairly.  Since at least the Steve McPherson regime, ABC typically makes announcements of any nature at the end of the week.  

[MadyGirl1987]

I will be interested to see what ABC renews. I am curious to see if there are any surprises, such as unexpected renewals or cancellations. In addition to the two bubble shows I watch, Once and Agents of Shield, I am especially curious as to what is going on with Modern Family and Black-ish. Those should be gimmie renewals but last I heard there was contract stuff with MF and it is almost a month after both were renewed last year. I know they are some of the networks strongest shows but can't help wondering if some behind the scenes contract drama is going on...

Edited April 2, 2017 by MadyGirl1987
Spelling

[Free]

13 minutes ago, MadyGirl1987 said:

I will be interested to see what ABC renews. I am curious to see if there are any surprises, such as unexpected renewals or cancellations. In addition to the two bubble shows I watch, Once and Agents of Shield, I am especially curious as to what is going on with Modern Family and Black-ish. Those should be gimmie renewals but last I heard there was contract stuff with MF and it is almost a month after both were renewed last year. I know they are some of the networks strongest shows but can't help wondering if some behind the scenes contract drama is going on...

MF has some negotiations, but Blackish should be safe.

[sharky]

1 hour ago, Tiger said:

Not necessairly.  Since at least the Steve McPherson regime, ABC typically makes announcements of any nature at the end of the week.  

May be the end of a week, but April programming announcements aren't typical. Aside from the March renewal last year, official renewal notices for Once have all been in May. Perhaps the show runners are being told this week, but it would be unusual for ABC to actually announce all their renewals this far from upfronts. 

[Tiger]

45 minutes ago, Free said:

MF has some negotiations, but Blackish should be safe.

Blackish is 100% safe, and will anchoring an hour somewhere next fall.

The ModFam situation is complicated.  20th wants a two year renewal, but ABC only wants ti commit to one.  There are also internal issues with the cast.  

37 minutes ago, sharky said:

May be the end of a week, but April programming announcements aren't typical. Aside from the March renewal last year, official renewal notices for Once have all been in May. Perhaps the show runners are being told this week, but it would be unusual for ABC to actually announce all their renewals this far from upfronts. 

Aside from Paul Lee announcing everything right before the upfronts in 2015, typically announces at least some renewals early, sometimes as early as January. In fact, Lee's shenanigans two years almost cost the network The Middle, which is part I think Dungey renewed it so early this year.  

Also, CBS and NBC have announced most of their renewals already.  The only shows that still have a shot but havent been renewed are those with contract issues such as Criminal Minds.  

[sharky]

NBC hasn't made their announcements yet for renewal aside from a show here or there. Shows may be likely to come back, but there's nothing official yet. And while ABC may have made some announcements early, like they did this year for Shonda shows, Once announcements have always been in May except for last year. Dungey renewed everything early last year because they canned Lee in February.

[Serena]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Once has always been renewed in May before Upfronts week (except last year), even the years when no one really had any doubt. 

Edited April 2, 2017 by Serena

[maryle]

0.8 

I do hope we will learn the fate this week because there so much information that going in every direction.

For me I don't know if the show will be renew and really unsure of what I really want.

Just watched the last episode and found it juvenile all the Jasmine and Aladdin stuff. The dialogue,the blandness of the Jasmine actress. The eternal separation of cs. The only funny thing was drunk Snow.

But, another year of that??

[Mathius]

They advertised Aladdin and Jasmine, and CS seperation and angst.  Of course there would be a drop.

[sharky]

Yep, and Match Game got a 0.6, which doesn't bode well for a game show Sunday. Sure, game shows are cheaper but you have to get something better than 0.6 to justify it. At least it did better than Time After Time.

So another week with a meh number that doesn't clarify anything. I am starting to think this reset is going to be a major reset, which could give execs hope that they could perhaps pick up viewers next year, but who knows. Agents of Shield is back this week too and those numbers are going to be really interesting.

4 minutes ago, Mathius said:

They advertised Aladdin and Jasmine, and CS seperation and angst.  Of course there would be a drop.

I wonder what a pirate adventure ad can do for the episode next week. At least people recognize Hook as part of the show. 

[Shanna Marie]

Wasn't there a big basketball game on another network? I'd be curious to see what the numbers looked like across the board for this Sunday, including other networks. The DVR numbers may be higher than normal, but I'm not sure that will help a game show, since there isn't the kind of storyline investment that would make you want to catch up if you were watching sports instead.

[sharky]

No basketball in prime time -- big game is tonight. Country Music Awards pulled a 2.1 at 8pm, which may account for some drop, and Walking Dead finale could've pulled people away early. That's all I can think of.

ETA: digging into numbers more, it was a bloody night. Everything went fractional on the four networks except for three shows -- and one of them was a special awards show. I particularly liked one comment on a ratings board about how OUAT had great numbers and will definitely get renewed. Someone responded with "I guess 0.8 is the new black."

Edited April 3, 2017 by sharky

[Free]

50 minutes ago, Mathius said:

They advertised Aladdin and Jasmine, and CS seperation and angst.  Of course there would be a drop.

Aladdin and Jasmine are clearly not a draw.  Rebooting with new characters isn't going to help a declining show at all.

[Curio]

Honestly, the only way this show gets better ratings is if they replace the writing team. And even at that point, the series has gone so far off the rails that it probably won't lure jaded viewers back.

[Mathius]

14 minutes ago, Curio said:

Honestly, the only way this show gets better ratings is if they replace the writing team. And even at that point, the series has gone so far off the rails that it probably won't lure jaded viewers back.

Also, new writers can't help at this point.  The plot and characters have been damaged irreversibly.  

[sharky]

I mean, you could keep the writers and replace the showrunners, which has been done before for other shows, but that was something ABC should've done back in season 4 after the post-Frozen crater.

[maryle]

When I thought about it I was surprised by the cs promotion for the episode because going after the spoiler and resume I didn't expect anything much cs. 

Maybe, they realized that jaladin was not a draw so focus on the cs agnst and that make me wonder about the real focus of next episode. 

[Free]

1 hour ago, Curio said:

Honestly, the only way this show gets better ratings is if they replace the writing team. And even at that point, the series has gone so far off the rails that it probably won't lure jaded viewers back.

It's hard enough to retain the viewers as it is, they're a declining show.

It's like what I said before, they didn't give the viewers any reason to stick around, nothing to look forward to.

[jjjmoss]

One amazing thing is how AFHV does even in reruns; some highlights this season: 0.8, 1.0, 0.8, 1.2, 0.9, 0.9 last night. I'm excluding the Super Bowl night because, well, Super Bowl. 

[sharky]

Cancel Bear highlighted Once this week in their write up and put it at likely to be renewed for a final season.

[KingOfHearts]

5 minutes ago, sharky said:

Cancel Bear highlighted Once this week in their write up and put it at likely to be renewed for a final season.

Every time we think we know what's going to happen, we really don't.

[Serena]

But Cancel Bear doesn't have any inside info, right? They're just guessing based on publicly available info.

[Free]

1 hour ago, Serena said:

But Cancel Bear doesn't have any inside info, right? They're just guessing based on publicly available info.

It's a prediction based on ratings and other factors.

[Camera One]

Cancel Bear is friends with Merida.

[jjjmoss]

At the current rate of decline, for another season the show would average about a 0.7 for the fall and a 0.6 for the season. Which would still be better than American Crime and Time After Time this season. And higher than a number of other theoretical renewals would be. 

Edited April 5, 2017 by jjjmoss

[sharky]

And on par with the number Match Game got on Sunday in the 9pm slot. Plus, you have to factor in that they're going to have football back in the fall to compete with. From the article:

Quote

Yes, “OUAT” is way down. But the untested-show grass is rarely greener. With Sunday no longer the big night it once was on the broadcast networks (excepting football, obviously), a show hovering around a 1 is … still not great, but probably better than the alternative. One need only look at the weakness of this season’s new dramas for confirmation.

[Tiger]

15 hours ago, jjjmoss said:

At the current rate of decline, for another season the show would average about a 0.7 for the fall and a 0.6 for the season. Which would still be better than American Crime and Time After Time this season. And higher than a number of other theoretical renewals would be. 

The problem with that analysis is that it only looks at one metric.  Yes, how a show does in the adults 18-49 demographic in the live + same day ratings does matter, but so do total viewers, other demos, contract, tax, and political issues, syndication, international sales, streaming, licensing, etc,. 

The network is very pleased with how Imaginary Mary has done in its first two episodes, so it's another comedy that will more than likely return as ABC seeks to widen its comedy footprint.   The only slots available to add more comedy are Sundays at 8 and 9, and Fridays at 9.  With it looking like at least 10 comedies will return from this year, if they want to add 3-4 more in the fall then well do the math.  

[Serena]

A 0.9 for Imaginary Mary isn't absolutely terrible, I guess, even though it's only episode 2. I guess it's relatively unexpensive to make, except for Jenna Elfman's salary.

[Free]

15 hours ago, sharky said:

And on par with the number Match Game got on Sunday in the 9pm slot. Plus, you have to factor in that they're going to have football back in the fall to compete with. From the article:

I assume the article was written a while ago because OuaT hasn't touched a 1 in a while.

[TheGreenKnight]

That's probably the reason they said "hovering around." Those pesky glue words that make sense of things.

[sharky]

Their average for the season is 0.99 at this point so I guess that's the 1 they're referring to.

1 hour ago, Serena said:

A 0.9 for Imaginary Mary isn't absolutely terrible, I guess, even though it's only episode 2. I guess it's relatively unexpensive to make, except for Jenna Elfman's salary.

But still more expensive than most comedies. They're using CGI for that one.

USA Today is running a save their shows poll and put Once at Renewed or Almost Renewed.

[Eolivet]

19 hours ago, sharky said:

But the untested-show grass is rarely greener. With Sunday no longer the big night it once was on the broadcast networks (excepting football, obviously), a show hovering around a 1 is … still not great, but probably better than the alternative.

OuaT to ABC:

[jjjmoss]

I doubt the network is actually very pleased with IM's terrible numbers.

...Crazy Ex Girlfriend at least has multiple Emmys and a Golden Globe. ABC already has their equivalent with American Crime.

[Free]

19 hours ago, TheGreenKnight said:

That's probably the reason they said "hovering around." Those pesky glue words that make sense of things.

It's PR spin words, that's what they use for their other shows.  That and it recently dropped to a 0.8 again this season.

Edited April 6, 2017 by Free

[sharky]

The "hovering around" description came from the Cancel Bear story, not from ABC's PR department. They're basing it on their renew/cancel chart, which averages the entire season. Right now, Once is at a 0.99 on that chart, hence their "hovering around" description. 

[Eolivet]

7 hours ago, jjjmoss said:

...Crazy Ex Girlfriend at least has multiple Emmys and a Golden Globe. ABC already has their equivalent with American Crime.

Yep -- the song (Settle for Me) was like OuaT, not the show.

(For the record, I think Cancel Bear's attitude is poison to creativity and innovation. "I mean, it's bad, but it could always be worse" is not a reason to keep OuaT on the air, to me. If ABC had kept their middling shows on the air and not taken a chance on Desperate Housewives or LOST or Grey's Anatomy, where would TV be now?)

"So, lower those expectations and settle for me!"

[Tiger]

The Sheild cast and producers are making the rounds this week promoting the new arc that started this week and acting like season five is a done deal.  

Whereas A&E are doing the equivalent of bombarding their (former) boyfriend/girlfriend with texts, etc, totally oblivuous to the fact that their SO has moved on and is ghosting them.

[TheGreenKnight]

If ABC is renewing Shield, then they're incredibly stupid. I imagine Dungey will be out in a few years if that's the case.

[Tiger]

1 minute ago, TheGreenKnight said:

If ABC is renewing Shield, then they're incredibly stupid. I imagine Dungey will be out in a few years if that's the case.

You do realize that Shield is doing really well in off-network (and actually got a deal after only three seasons/66 episodes), has strong international sales, has a lucratibe NetFlix deal, generates revenue via comics and other merchandise, continues to be one of top broadcast shows in the men 18-34 demo which advertisers pay a premium for, and continues to put up solid C3, live+3, live+7, and live+30 numbers.

Oh and Bob Iger wants it on the air.

[TheGreenKnight]

2 hours ago, Tiger said:

continues to be one of top broadcast shows in the men 18-34 demo which advertisers pay a premium for,

With ratings that are already worse than OUAT's currently getting, really???

[Tiger]

16 hours ago, TheGreenKnight said:

With ratings that are already worse than OUAT's currently getting, really???

Once is only approxiamtely and on average .2 ahead of Shield in live+same day adults 18-49, and Shield actually beats in live+same day for all of the mens demos, and in all demos and total viewers in C3, live+3, live+7, and live+30. 

[sharky]

Advertisers don't care about live+ viewers because most of them fast forward through commercials. And the men's demo is fine, but men aren't the ones who do most of the shopping for a household -- as sexist as that may sound. Ratings are the best thing we have right now to measure a viewer's buying power. Once has better live ratings and better live viewers. That's money. And yes, Shield has other forms of revenue after that but so does Once. Merchandising, streaming, etc. With the numbers Shield is getting compared to Once, there's no way that Shield would get renewed while Once gets cancelled. They may both get cancelled, they may both get renewed, but if ABC chooses only one of them, it's choosing Once.

[Shanna Marie]

1 hour ago, sharky said:

And the men's demo is fine, but men aren't the ones who do most of the shopping for a household -- as sexist as that may sound.

Unfortunately, even though this is true, the young male demographic is more valuable to many advertisers because they're very hard to reach and they're not only easily influenced, but they pick their "team" early in life. Long before they have money to buy luxury cars, for instance, they can be influenced to decide whether they're on Team Lexus, Team Mercedes, or Team BMW. There have been shows with higher than expected ratings that still got canceled because they were supposed to draw male viewers but drew female viewers, instead. If there's something that gets better young male ratings, it tends to win out. Yes, even though women make the household buying decisions. But there are a lot of ways to reach women, fewer ways to reach young men.

[MadyGirl1987]

Weren't we supposed to hear some news from ABC this week? Seems like we would have heard by now as it's nearing the end of day Friday...