Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Shanna Marie]

Right now, it seems like they're writing to no particular audience. They've got stuff like crypt sex adultery that's nothing to be ashamed of and pregnancy via false identity rape. But then the rest of the writing is very superficial, steering away from stuff like honestly addressing emotions and relationship issues and veering from one shocking twist to another without getting into the ramifications, so it's practically like a live-action cartoon. It's not suitable for children but it's not satisfying for adults. There's a big focus on romantic relationships with hardly any real relationship writing so that all the relationship stuff is mostly just kissing. So there's too much romance for people who aren't into romance but not enough relationship development for people who really want romance.

 

I'm not sure who their target audience is -- teenage tumblr users who like making gifs of people kissing and only watch episode highlights on YouTube rather than watching actual episodes?

[Zuleikha]

I don't think the show needs to go either/or between focus on core characters and bringing in more interesting fractured fairy tale takes. S1 did both quite successfully. 2A and 2B didn't, and I think that was part of the season 2 problem. Characters like Aurora, Mulan, Lancelot, and the Sheriff of Nottingham appeared, but we weren't given their stories, so they ended up feeling more like cast bloat than fun fairy-tale explorations.

 

3A and 3B, I think, both did decent jobs of balancing core with giving us new takes on old tales, although both certainly could have done more with the new takes. But 3A gave us new spins on Pan, the Pied Piper, Tinkerbell, the Darlings, Ariel, mermaids, and Lost Boys. We also got different magic with Neverland, belief, and pixie dust. There was also room to give us Tiger Lily and more fleshed out mermaids, Tinkerbell, and belief. 3B gave us a new imagining of Oz that captured the Wicked Witch of the West (obviously), the Wizard of Oz, the monkeys, Glinda, Dorothy, and the four cardinal direction witches re-imagined as a sisterhood. We also got the quest for courage (which gave us Rapunzel, although I don't think done very well), a heart, brains, and somewhat randomly Lumiere. Just as with 3A, some tweaking of the plot could have given us even more of Oz without sacrificing the focus on the core characters.

 

4A nominally gave us Frozen, but just like with 2A/2B, we didn't get a new spin on the characters. It was just Frozen the Sequel. So our only new spins were the Snow Queen, Bo-Peep, and the Sorcerer's Apprentice stuff. I liked 4A a lot, but I do recall seeing critiques of the show for bringing in Frozen without re-imagining it as well as complaints about Frozen characters taking over the show. Had Frozen not been chosen, a similar arc could have been done that would have focused on core characters plus done a more uniquely Once Upon a Time spin on the Snow Queen.

 

4B is just giving us Ursula and Cruella as new spins... maybe we can count Maleficent as half of a new spin since she's been fleshed out much more than before. We're also getting Isaac and Lily as new characters no one asked for or wanted (although I don't dislike them). But certainly it could have been structured in a different way that would have allowed both more new spins and a better focus on the core characters. 

[KingOfHearts]

Responding in All Seasons.

[TheGreenKnight]

If anything, if all the casuals I know are to be believed, it's the pandering to certain ships & the overexposure of Emma/Snow/Charming/Rumple that led to their departure, and to some audience erosion.

I do think this plays a small part in keeping casual/new viewers from joining the show--since I think the well has dried for interest in Snowing, Rumpel/Rumbelle, and Regina--but I believe the show is also at a point where new characters turn off the base viewers who have been watching from the beginning and don't want to invest in anything not related to the old characters. That's why I personally feel that the current ratings drops, while somewhat story-related, are more due to the show's age putting it between a rock and a hard place. Either you're drawing in new viewers while turning off old viewers, or you're not interesting new viewers by catering to the old viewers. I'm not sure there's anything they can do to interest new viewers and old viewers simultaneously, so I'm expecting 5 will likely be the final season.

 

I'm not going to hold it against the show that it couldn't keep the viewers who only tuned in out of Frozen-mania. Those viewers only came for Anna and Elsa and once those characters departed, so did the viewers. OUAT has been on for years now, so any viewers who had an interest in OUAT's general concept would've tuned in a long time ago if they had an interest in the story it had to tell.

[Souris]

The big drop started while Elsa & Anna were still firmly on the show, though. The show had the biggest opportunity in the world to enchant those Frozen-related viewers into sticking around -- and not only did it blow that opportunity big-time, it also started turning off long-time fans.

[LizaD]

Once is a soap opera which means the target is somewhat invested fans to die hards, not casual viewers or trying to lure in newbies. It's the type of show that has a small audience that 10 years from now will still argue about stupid crap like which couple had more chemistry. It's literally Young and Restless, Disneyfied. Frozen was an anomaly that will never happen again for Once in terms of picking up new or lapsed viewers.

 

"Casual" fans and new viewers just won't pick up soap operas. They just won't. It doesn't make any sense by definition. Casual viewers will and can drop in and out of a show at will. Shows that pick up newbies make it EASY to pick up the show at any point in time. That's not Once or the soap genre. That's procedurals or shows with a strong episodic-standalone element like case of the week while people wait for the longer serialized stories to resolve. S1 had an element of this but they've gotten rid of it completely. Look at Grey's, an 11 year? old show, up against Big Bang Theory, still has better ratings than Once on its 4th season. They managed to blend in the procedural stuff with the soap. This is also partly why heavily serialized dramas don't do well in syndication, see Lost.

 

 So while ABC is bleating about Once winning demos on Sundays, CBS will take their old audience and old tired procedurals to syndication and make about 10 times more money.

Edited April 29, 2015 by LizaD

[Mathius]

I'm not sure Once is meant to be a soap opera, but somehow it's always had elements of one. The whole Storybrooke side of the story in Season 1, with the Emma-Regina feud over Henry and the David/Mary Margaret/Kathryn love triangle, was pretty much a traditional soap opera if you removed the fantasy background, while subsequent seasons, though the stories have gotten more fantastical, have capitalized on the convoluted family connections and big, dramatic, angst-creating plot twists elements of a soap opera more.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Mathius

[FurryFury]

"Casual" fans and new viewers just won't pick up soap operas. They just won't. It doesn't make any sense by definition. Casual viewers will and can drop in and out of a show at will. Shows that pick up newbies make it EASY to pick up the show at any point in time. That's not Once or the soap genre. That's procedurals or shows with a strong episodic-standalone element like case of the week while people wait for the longer serialized stories to resolve. S1 had an element of this but they've gotten rid of it completely. Look at Grey's, an 11 year? old show, up against Big Bang Theory, still has better ratings than Once on its 4th season. They managed to blend in the procedural stuff with the soap. This is also partly why heavily serialized dramas don't do well in syndication, see Lost.

 

It used to be true, but it's different now. Which shows have grown in audience this season? Game Of Thrones, which is hardly case of the week. Empire - also a soap opera. Hell, even Secret and Lies which follows Once somehow managed to gain 0.2 - and again, it seems to have a continuing narrative. The advent of binge-watching and shows being available on the net make me doubt that case of the week matters anymore. It's been a while since I've seen a case of the week show actually grow or change its audience. I think it accounts for the far lesser amount of them, too.

Edited April 29, 2015 by FurryFury

[myril]

Doubt the writers ever gave much thought about what genre this show might be most close to (soap, fantasy, whatever), but they worked for a heavily serialized show, Lost, before, and think it's save to say they got some inspiration from that. Lost worked amazingly well, so did or do other heavily serialized shows like Breaking Bad or Game of Thrones. But more procedural shows like SVU or Criminal Minds are doing well as well, they have serialized elements sometimes, because even there people get invested in the main characters' stories, but they still work a lot with case of the week model. And then there are some shows moving somewhere in between, a show like Elementary for example, and I would count Person of Interest there as well, although it became more serialized over time, and they have been doing okay, for a while.

 

The growing possibilities of online, on demand streaming and with it binge watching might do some good for syndication for heavily serialized shows, because it doesn't take years to catch up anymore. Before one could try to do that with video or DVDs, buy or rental, but it's getting easier with on demand video. For classic syndication heavily serialized shows are a problem, they don't sell that good there. And it is remarkable, that heavily serialized shows are more likely to be found on cable than the big broadcast networks. They tend to attract a very loyal but not always a big audience. The number 1 show on Sunday eve prime time in absolute numbers is CBS Madam Secretary, not OUaT. Madam Secretary is catering though more to an older audience, thus OUaT manages to be number 1 in this in the time spot, but even if looking at younger audience think CBS has a bigger reach, don't mistake share with absolute numbers.  Madam Secretary is a mix of case of the week and serialized story and works quite fine as such (and IMO is the best new show this season, but that is a matter of taste and interest).

 

I agree that Once was never a show aiming at the casual, only superficial invested viewer,  who likely prefer procedural shows. OUaT had more procedural elements at the beginning, in season 1 were a few fairy tale of the week episodes helping to set up the Fairy Tale World,  always with some involvement of core characters, particular Rumple and Regina, but the show was never meant as being a case of the week thing. Some people though might have had a different impression of it in season 1, serialized yes, but with some relaxing fairy tale of the week elements.

 

I think it is possible that the first noticable bigger loss of audience could be due to people turning off when it became evident, that the show was becoming heavily serialized, which happened sometime in season 2. Even more so because it became as evident, that the show would stay focused on mostly the Mills-Snowings-Stiltskin affairs, reducing other popular Disney and fairy tale characters to nothing but supporting characters (Bell is borderline, but definitely Sleeping Beauty and Mulan were a disappointment for some, even more so now looking at what they did in 4B). Even though new characters were introduced, they mostly stayed rather shallow, unless they were villain of the half season maybe, and the flashbacks lost the fine balance of giving life to a new character while still exploring a little more the core characters, it became more and more a  tool to give a sense of character development of core characters while they mostly failed at doing that in the present time, and had the taste of a thrill of playing with all toys available regardless if it makes any sense.

 

Frozen was in a funny way a reverse situation: They couldn't make the current Disney stars that shallow, so they struggled hard to make even the most ridiculous connection between them and the core characters in the flashbacks, but the whole arc mostly seemed disjointed from the rest of the show nevertheless. So maybe no wonder it didn't keep people around long enough to watch even the end of the Frozen arc. It was clear, that it would have no effects on the movie-verse, so you could very well ignore it, while it didn't do much lasting for the development of the core characters of OUaT. You could take out pretty much the whole 4A and nothing of what we have now would be different. Alright, they introduced Lily, but that could have been done without Elsa and Anna.

 

I am guilty myself to have used the term casual viewer here and not quite in the right way, because guess for OUaT that is indeed more of a rare bird in the audience. Think most viewers are invested in the show, though not everyone is invested in the active fandom. They might occasionally give a commentary, most likely on Facebook, because who isn't on Facebook, it's easy, doesn't take the effort to set up a new account, but they don't discuss matters regularly and fervently anywhere but with a few friends off line maybe. Some people are fans of a show without being a part of the active fandom, probably turned off by rather inevitable shipping wars, which are more dominant and visible online than ever.

 

The up and down from episode to episode doesn't tell much about the reception of single story elements or characters or ship, different from what a lot of fans like to believe. Too many factors can have an influence on those ratings to draw any reliable conclusions about that from such numbers. What can be somewhat interesting, if trends starts to show in the numbers, like a constant fall higher than average in the season over a number of episodes. It gets critical, if a show doesn't meet expectations of the network, but what exactly their expectations are we mostly don't know in detail. The few numbers we get to see thanks to some website are not the detailed numbers networks are getting for their money, and the details about demography can be quite important for keeping a show or not, it's not just the overall numbers.

 

As expected they got a bit of a boost with Frozen, but I am not even sure if they expected  to be able the keep these numbers up after Frozen, they sure would have like to, but it was IMO not much realistic anyway (unless they would have kept the characters on the show). That the numbers dropped rather quick again might have been a little disappointing, but far from enough to put the show at any risk. It's close to season 3 numbers if I see that right. Nothing to worry there.

 

Unless ABC already has another promising show concept they expect to be able to hold the same numbers OUaT does at the moment on Sunday prime time at hand, why should they give OUaT a boot as long as it delivers such numbers as it does. It's not bad, and particular not for ABC.

 

The interesting question is not so much, with which ratings this season will end, but how will the show do in the first episodes of next season. If there is a significant drop because of people not coming back, being miffed and disappointed, then they might get in trouble. But for now I will sit back, relax and ignore the ratings, they have little to tell at the moment.

Edited April 29, 2015 by myril

[LizaD]

 

I'm not sure Once is meant to be a soap opera, but somehow it's always had elements of one

Yes. But every show has an element of soap in it. Even shows like Walking Dead, Breaking Bad or straight up procedurals like CSI have some soapy element to them.  The problem with Once is that, it's turned into a full blown pure daytime soap opera with nothing else going for it. Shonda Rhimes shows are basically soaps disguised as a bit of this and bit of that thrown in. Once doesn't even bother doing that. They just let the Disney fairytale stamp "disguise" it for them but nothing on the show itself bothers doing anything but stealing plots from Passions. It's the degree of soap say 50% vs 100%.

 

 

It used to be true, but it's different now. Which shows have grown in audience this season? Game Of Thrones, which is hardly case of the week. Empire - also a soap opera.

GoT is on cable and doesn't rely on ad revenue but more than that, GoT is the perfect example I'm talking about. Soap elements out the wazoo but not a pure soap. The soapy element vs pure soap difference between GoT and Once? Cersei slept with her brother and had incest babies but what was the point of that soapy plot point? To trigger a war across multiple kingdoms that affected hundreds of lives which we saw. Now that's not a story that can be found on daytime soap. Zelena disguised as Marian sleeping with her sisters' ex-lover? What's the point of that? Angst for poor Woegina and angst for her relationship? Eh that's a story ripped straight from any of the daytime soaps. GoT have elaborate battles that span an entire episode or multiple episodes. Once's "battles" involve people throwing up their arms in the air and over and done in a minute. This soapy comparison can be elaborated on another thread.

 

Once's 5 million viewers are exactly like Y&R's 5 million viewers and Once is on primetime Sunday with a way larger potential viewer reach.

 

The most telling thing is, somewhere posted on this board that Once and Blacklist were the most popular shows on Netflix and yet Once's current ratings are only going down. I have a feeling that number is due to people wanting to watch Frozen:Once but that tells you a whole lot. There's also rerun values to be considered. People might binge watch a show once but are they going to watch it 5 times more? Blacklist got a Netflix deal of 2 million per episode respectively. The closest figure I could find for Once was 400,000 an episode by an article on Vulture. I'm sure if it got a blockbuster deal ABC would have their PR department screaming about it at the tops of their lungs like NBC and CBS do.

[KingOfHearts]

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/04/29/revenge-series-finale-season4

 

ABC cancels Revenge. Does this mean anything to Once?

[YaddaYadda]

I don't think it does.  Once has been renewed for a 5th season.  I wish they'd change their time slot and make the show a bit more grown up and drop the happy endings, villains and heroes talk.

[retrograde]

Only in the very broad sense that canceling a show frees them up to pick up a new pilot and if that does well, it could push Once down the rankings. But Revenge was a shoe-in for cancellation, and Once is a shoe-in for renewal. 

[Mathius]

I don't think it does. Once has been renewed for a 5th season. I wish they'd change their time slot and make the show a bit more grown up and drop the happy endings, villains and heroes talk.

They probably think they're making it grown up already in this half-season by "subverting / deconstructing" all that talk and by making the show so relentlessly dark and dreary in tone.

Edited April 30, 2015 by Mathius

[Souris]

Variety article: When is the right time to cancel a long-running show?

 

No mention of Once, but interesting.

Edited April 30, 2015 by Souris

[sharky]

The only way I can see Revenge affecting Once is maybe with scheduling on Sunday. ABC is highly likely going to keep Once on at 8pm, and Secret and Lies has been doing well on Sundays. So maybe they bump S&L and put a new show in that 9pm slot with Once as a lead in. I hope in that case there is some kind of adult fantasy/sci-fi show they could put in there perhaps. I have to check the ABC list though -- I know they've announced what they picked up but haven't said where those fit on the schedule yet.

 

ETA: From the article Souris posted:

Littlefield sketched out the ways to measure success: audience levels and ratings, plus the creative potential left in the tank. There’s also an economic consideration. As shows get older, above-the-line costs grow significantly. “Hit shows are far more expensive than new shows,” Littlefield said. “In the past, there was a tendency to pay up as shows became more expensive to hold onto.”

 

This is a very interesting point. When contracts come up for renewal, things get expensive, especially with a cast this big. Plus, add in the fact that ratings are slipping and really, how much creative potential is left for Adam and Eddy, and you can start to narrow the window of how much longer this show is going to be on the air.

Edited April 30, 2015 by sharky

[Serena]

 

I know they've announced what they picked up but haven't said where those fit on the schedule yet.

ABC hasn't picked up anything, neither their old shows nor any pilots. They've commisioned a few Pilots but we won't know which ones will become series until May at the Upfronts. That's their usual way.

 

Secret and Lies is doing well for now, but let's not forget Resurrection (in that time timeslot if I'm not mistaken), who was a huge hit last year when it premiered, and then fell so much in its second season that now it's basically canceled.

Edited April 30, 2015 by Serena

[legaleagle53]

There's also still the possibility that Galavant may be renewed for a second season.  It would be a good counterpoint to Once.

[Rumsy4]

I enjoyed Galavant. I hope it does get renewed. 

[sharky]

ABC hasn't picked up anything, neither their old shows nor any pilots. They've commisioned a few Pilots but we won't know which ones will become series until May at the Upfronts. That's their usual way.

Ah right. Thanks for clarifying! Here's the list I saw on TVLine of the pilots ABC ordered to production -- and yes, whether they get picked up is another story. A few of them seem like they could be matched with Once depending on what they do with Sunday night and if they keep S&L there. There are a few badass women drama pilots that could work if you wanted an Emma-type theme night, but Shondra night already exists as well so who knows. And I don't think they would necessarily pair Galavant with Once. It's a half hour comedy -- or at least it was supposed to be before they aired it in hour chunks. Plus, it would have be on at 8, which would push Once to 9 and I don't know if they'd want to do that.

 

Also just fyi -- ABC has their upfront scheduled for May 12 so it won't be long before we know what's going on with all this.

[Serena]

If they renew Galavant, they would never pair it with Once anyway. They'd air it instead of Once during the midseason hiatus.

[Serena]

Deadline is speculating that CBS could air Supergirl at 8PM on Sunday next season, so that could be Once's competition. I honestly don't see it doing well, especially on CBS, but who knows? It's definitely more of a competition for Once's demo that The Good Wife or the Tea Leoni show or whatever it is that airs on Sunday on CBS.

[myril]

Supergirl for Sunday eve 8 pm? Great suggestion. Not. Maybe if CBS wants to reduce the audience to the advertising industry's preferred younger viewers in that time slot, and lose overall numbers of viewers, they should go for it, so fitting to show between 60 Minutes, and then, what, push Madam Secretary to 9pm. Or is it a hint, that the Supergirl is so outmoded and trimmed family friendly (wouldn't be a surprise on CBS though), that it will be a bore? Or some wannabe 20something drama, which to me is a bore, it would be nice to still have some more grown-up show on Sunday evenings as alternative. Never will get why anyone thinks trying to aim at the same audience of an already established show on a competitive network is a great idea to draw in viewers for your show. But whatever. Think it would fit better to keep Madam Secretary where it is and let maybe Doubt or Limitless follow it a 9pm, if they pick up any of these two. Bit of an old-fashion philosophy maybe for TV scheduling, but one I still like,, to keep your audience with you for an evening, have a certain coherence with the shows.

 

For OUaT as companion on Sunday eve? Lies and Secrets now is a good fit, so was Revenge, weekly soap opera drama, twisted romances and families. So, would look for something in that line. Some of the ABC pilots in the running look good for that (actually, do they do anything else?) The Jenna Bans project looks like an interesting candidate to me, eventually Boom.

Edited May 3, 2015 by myril

[Souris]

If Twitter trends are any indication (and I know they're not really), Secrets & Lies will overtake Once as ABC's top drama of the night in the ratings. It's been trending on Twitter for almost four hours now. Once trended while it was on East Coast time but then dropped off. Given they tied last week….

 

S&L is STILL trending. Must have been a corker of a finale.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Souris

[YaddaYadda]

Well to be fair, it was Secrets & Lies' season finale.  I'm guessing their ratings will be really great and that they will kick Once's ass up one side and down the other.

[sharky]

Well to be fair, it was Secrets & Lies' season finale.  I'm guessing their ratings will be really great and that they will kick Once's ass up one side and down the other.

Exactly. Once has a two-hour finale next week so it will be interesting to see how the 9pm hour of that finale next week compares to S&L numbers from this week. Also, does anyone remember what Resurrection's ratings numbers were like last year for their finale? I feel it was a similar situation where they had a one-hour finale the week before Once's Captain Swan movie.

[HoodlumSheep]

Exactly. Once has a two-hour finale next week so it will be interesting to see how the 9pm hour of that finale next week compares to S&L numbers from this week. Also, does anyone remember what Resurrection's ratings numbers were like last year for their finale? I feel it was a similar situation where they had a one-hour finale the week before Once's Captain Swan movie.

It'll be interesting. Hopefully Once's rating's go up a little. They seem to be stagnant at around 1.7 lately, so if we're lucky maybe it'll garner a 1.9? Because at this point I don't know if Once can rope in enough of the viewers it lost to jump 0.2 or more up in the ratings, even with the zaniness next week.

But then again, I haven't seen the ratings for this episode, so maybe there will be an upward climb.

Is 4x20 being considered the penultimate episode?

* I'll take a stab and guess that week's episode will garner a 1.8 when all is said and done (I feel like I'm being generous here). Due to mother flippin' Cora.

Edited May 4, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[FurryFury]

I don't think Cora's that popular to get a ratings increase. If it happens, it's due to other factors that aren't as obvious. It's always a gamble with ratings.

 

That said, I do hope the finale won't get a boost, even if it's less likely. Because I want the writers to realize this half-season has been absolutely awful and they need to change the direction of the show if they want it to get better. Kinda like 2B/3A (only 4B is worse than 2B has ever been).

[HoodlumSheep]

I know Cora probably didn't help boost ratings, but I can dream! So if Once magically does slightly better this week I'm giving Cora the credit.

Just let me have this one people!

[FurryFury]

Oh, I do love Cora... but too much to watch this episode, knowing it's another retcon.

[Souris]

Ratings went up: 1.7, 5.22 million.

[HoodlumSheep]

Ratings went up: 1.7, 5.22 million.

Woo! You can thank Cora for that!

Okay, I'll be quiet now.

Hmm...i will guess that the 4b finale will get a 1.9 overall (including adjustment if there is any)...if they're lucky.

Edited May 4, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[Mathius]

It is barely a rise, though. Demo number still 1.7, and it went from 5.21 to 5.22.

Though I agree that Barbara Hershey is the most obvious aspect that would have brought in the extra .01 to this episode.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Mathius

[Souris]

Breakdown from Marc Berman (S&L did crush it in overall viewers, though not demo):

 

7:00 p.m.

ABC – America’s Funniest Home Videos
Viewers: 5.36 million (#2), A18-49: 1.2/ 5 (#1)

———-

7:30 p.m.

ABC – America’s Funniest Home Videos
Viewers: 5.88 million (#2), A18-49: 1.5/ 6 (#1)

———-

8:00 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time
Viewers: 5.24 million (#3), A18-49: 1.6/ 6 (#1)

———-

8:30 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time
Viewers: 5.19 million (#3), A18-49: 1.7/ 5 (#1)

———-

9:00 p.m.

ABC – Secrets & Lies (season or series finale)
Viewers: 6.29 million (#2), A18-49: 1.7/ 5 (#1)

———-

9:30 p.m.

ABC – Secrets & Lies (season or series finale)
Viewers: 6.49 million (#2), A18-49: 1.8/ 5 (#1)

Edited May 4, 2015 by Souris

[HoodlumSheep]

That drop in the back half hour (for Once) can easily be expalined. Nothin happened in the 1st half hour, so they probably gave up just before things got slightly better.

Man, I don't even know if Once can manage hitting 6.3-6.5 million for the finale like Secrets and lies did.

Edited May 4, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[sharky]

To give you an example of how this compares to last year, here's the week before the two-hour finale when Resurrection had it's own finale. Once had a 2.1 share with 6.86 million viewers. At 9pm, Resurrection had a 2.1 share as well with 8.16 million viewers. So like last year, the show following Once did do better, but now Resurrection is almost sure to be cancelled. So yes, Once slipped but it still brings in steady numbers. I do have to wonder though if ABC is worried about the decline this season, especially after such a great debut in September. Should be interesting to see how they work on the show as the writers get back in their room.

[Souris]

I'm sure they're thrilled that the numbers went up this week. If they'd gone down again, that would have caused more concern.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Souris

[Mathius]

That drop in the back half hour (for Once) can easily be expalined. Nothin happened in the 1st half hour, so they probably gave up just before things got slightly better.

Man, I don't even know if Once can manage hitting 6.3-6.5 million for the finale like Secrets and lies did.

I doubt it will, given the winter finale's numbers I don't expect the season finale to do much better. Sad, since both finales of Season 3 hit exactly that 6 million area.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Mathius

[FurryFury]

But the numbers did not go up. They were steady in the demo (nobody cares about 49+ viewers anyway). I think our previous assessment still holds, only die-hards are left.

[Serena]

I'm thinking there might be a bit of an uptick for the finale. They published some pictures from it on the official Twitter immediately following the episode, and they changed the Twitter name to "Heroes and Villains". They're doing a bit of clever marketing that may get some curious eyeballs to check it out, IMO. Hopefully they can keep it up this week with some more clever publicity. This show is SO ripe for so many interesting marketing opportunities and they never seem to take advantage of it. The whole "Queens of Darkness" thing was underwhelming. "Frozen is coming" was the most unoriginal tagline ever.

[Mathius]

Even with an uptick, the current rating average for the entire season according to seriesmonitor.com is and still will be LOWER than Season 3's, which wouldn't be astounding (since each season average usually gets lower naturally) were it not for the HUGE boost in ratings most of 4A received. They got a ton of new viewers, then drove them away, and then proceeded to drive away well over a million of the regular viewers from Season 3 away too. And it really takes a special kind of showrunner incompetence to pull that off.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Mathius

[Rumsy4]

I agree overall, but I think the early ratings boost in 4A was not accurate. Nielsen's Ratings were all messed up, and I suspect the company didn't correct the ratings 100% accurately when they discovered the error. It would make them look less incompetent if the ratings were off by a narrower margin. Just a thought... 

Edited May 4, 2015 by Rumsy4

[FabulousTater]

Neilsen's ratings error occurred March 2, 2015 - October 9, 2015 (Or Oct. 17 - Nielsen hasn't been clear on this point) and their error greatly affected show ratings for fall 2015 premiere week and the following week. The error mainly affected ABC's adjusted ratings numbers -- ABC was getting relatively large adjustments to it's fast national ratings as opposed to other networks. (It was the the large numbers of viewers that broadcast networks get in the fall versus summer TV viewership numbers that exposed the error. )

 

After it was discovered, Neilsen released the new numbers (here's the article that contains the corrected ratings for ABC's premiere week). For OUAT the difference in ratings for S4 premiere was that an erroneous 3.7 rating was corrected to 3.5. So despite the inital Nielsen errors, the corrected numbers do show that OUAT managed to draw a huge crowd with Frozen.

 

And, as Mathius noted, despite the huge Frozen increase and expected drop (and the 2 weeks of erroneous adjusted ratings), OUAT still managed to retain some of those Frozen viewers and increased it's overall viewership and ratings in 4A in comparison to s3. But, it was all downhill (ratings) from there...literally.

 

They got a ton of new viewers, then drove them away, and then proceeded to drive away well over a million of the regular viewers from Season 3 away too. And it really takes a special kind of showrunner incompetence to pull that off.

ITA. If you remove the Frozen "curiosity effect", so throw out the ratings from the first two episodes from s4 (the corrected 4x01 and 4x02 ratings were in the 3.x range), the show was still averaging a 2.5 demo rating from episodes 4x03 - 4x08, which is a solid increase over season 3's episodes 3x03 - 3x08 which averaged a 2.2 in the demo ratings.

 

Now, at this point in 4B, OUAT is averaging a 1.8 demo rating and 5.69 million viewers which is well below 3B's average of 2.2 in the demo ratings and 6.95 million viewers. Clearly, despite whatever artificial boost Nielsen was reporting -- that has been corrected -- which affected the first two episodes of the season, the writers managed to not only squander the huge increase in viewers that Frozen lured in, it also managed to lose over a million of it's regular/dedicated viewers and roughly a 20% drop in overall ratings. *slow clap* Epic Fail, OUAT writers. Epic. Fail.

Edited May 4, 2015 by FabulousTater

[sharky]

And could you imagine what would've happened if they weren't able to get the Frozen rights? It's become painfully obvious this season that they had a plan B all in place and ready to go if the Frozen plan A wasn't approved by Disney. Instead of Elsa coming out of the portal, we would've just started with the Zelena as Marian story in 4x01 and then what? We'd be having a much more dire discussion at the end of that unrealized season than we are now.

 

Like I said, I'm going to be very interested to see what we learn about the new season after the finale and upfronts. I know we can't see behind the corporate curtain, but I highly suspect there's some office politicking going on before the writers go back in that room to start season 5.

[YaddaYadda]

I think they were going to go with the Snow Queen regardless.  I'm assuming she would have been a lot less sympathetic if anything.  And dealing with Zelena/Marian right off the bat would have made more sense than this thing we got though I'm sure it would have stretched so much, I would have felt I was in hell.

[Souris]

Isn't it sad when we think that what we got sucked, but what we may have gotten instead would also have sucked?

 

I hate to stick up for Once in the ratings, but it has to be taken into account that they have fallen victim to whatever has befallen Sunday as a whole. Sunday is down loads across the board -- even stalwart 60 Minutes.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Souris

[Rumsy4]

Most shows decline in later seasons, right? I think it's a combination of factors.

[Dani-Ellie]

Most shows decline in later seasons, right? I think it's a combination of factors.

 

Yes. As shows get older, the viewership drops as viewers lose interest and/or discover other shows. A heavily serialized show typically has issues picking up a new audience the older it gets. The advent of streaming and binge-watching may help with this eventually but it's easier to pick up a show like SVU in later seasons because each episode is a self-contained story with some overarching stuff. It may take a couple episodes to figure out what's going on and who the characters are but watching the back seasons is not a necessity to follow the story. With a show like Once, it's not like you can just pick it up in the fall without having watched the previous four seasons and expect to follow the story.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Dani-Ellie

[Mathius]

Like I said, the declining ratings in later seasons the more a show goes on is always a factor (unless you're a cable show like Game of Thrones), but with such a noteworthy upswing and subsequent plummet like this one, that alone can't be to blame. Especially when comparing Season 3, which was lower than 1 and 2 but steady, rather than Season 4's trend of down, down, down ever since the two-part 4x08.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Mathius

[FabulousTater]

I know we can't see behind the corporate curtain, but I highly suspect there's some office politicking going on before the writers go back in that room to start season 5.

Maybe, maybe not?

I know we're just speculating here, so who knows what kind of behind the scenes politics will actually play out between A&E and ABC if at all, but I'm not sure Disney/ABC would be willing to put that much effort into trying to right the OUAT ratings ship. I think ABC may be willing to let the show play itself out without interferring and let the chips fall where they may because really, I'm not sure what ABC could do to help at all at this point. I mean, just look at this season. Disney/ABC gave'em Frozen, which lured in tons of people, and yet the season is closing with record lows.

 

ABC could talk to A&E until their ears fall off, but if s4 is anything to judge by that doesn't mean it will result in anything good. ABC could also choose to bring in new runners, but the show is such a meshugaas of timelines and stupid plots that don't make sense, characters that are best described as mindless meat puppets (and now actually within the show narrative are literally mindless meat puppets with no self-determination and subject to the whims of some random guy with a pen), and overall, just total, off-the-wall BS that, unless ABC can find some other showrunners that have been keeping up with this giant clusterf*ck, then ABC (and we) are stuck with A&E.

And even if ABC did find someone willing to take over, I'm not sure what these new showrunners could do to bring the ratings back up because I think 4B has mortally wounded the show. I don't think there's anything you could do to fix it short of pretending 4B never happened. I mean, that would be kinda funny if they came back in 5A and were like "Just kidding, everyone! 4B was all a magical/Dark One roofies induced mass delusion. Ha Ha! Pretend that didn't happen!" But there's pretty much zero chance of that happening.

There's always the chance that ABC wants to expend some effort in keeping OUAT around because of possible tie-ins that OUAT could bring to the Disney universe like they are trying to do with Agents of SHIELD and the Marvel universe. But since ONCE takes place in a different universe of it's own where the Disney characters aren't part of Disney canon, I don't know that that's much of a perk (if anything, OUAT has made a habit of ruining Disney characters). Agents of SHIELD lives in the same universe as the Marvel movie universe so there's some synergy happening there, but that's not the same with OUAT and the Disney properties. At best, Disney properties brought into OUAT serve as gauge for how much interest people have in other Disney properties (Frozen, for example) but that doesn't really gain Disney anything.

All in all, I'm not sure ABC will bother interfering in the show. They got decent profit out of them for 3.5 seasons. I don't know that ABC will see it worthwhile to expend more money, time, and energy on a blind and lame horse that's limping towards a finish line.

Edited May 4, 2015 by FabulousTater