Eolivet

Sharn, the Russell Hantz of Australian Survivor. I honestly think her whole "I'm a lawyer" persona works against her at final tribal -- she comes off like she's lecturing people, and I've rarely seen such a cognitive dissonance between the way someone sees their game in their head versus the way people perceive that game. I feel like both times, she couldn't get to final tribal without talking out of both sides of her mouth, and once she got there, she dramatically misread her own game. In season three, it was "I was loyal" versus Shane, the most loyal player there was. When it was her "big moves" (like having a sense about the Mat boot, but not warning him) that gained her respect from half the jury, but came off as disingenuous to the other half. This time, it was her quite frankly bizarre argument about "look how many times I could've switched alliances," which she needed to follow up with "but I couldn't beat you, you were too good" to the people she burned. Which also comes off as disingenuous when you're part of "the tightest alliance in Australian Survivor history." A tact that might've worked is going after David more, like "hey, I got here without idols and a pretty face." I don't know if she was too arrogant to use Moana's planned "I used David as my shield and was running things the whole time" argument (which I thought was decent). But honestly, any claim of "an aggressive, quiet game" went out the window after her loud, pathetic begging to be taken to F2, all "you promised to take me, you promised, you promised." She needed to correct that last impression the jury had of her, even if she had to lie. Say "I was playing that up so I would look weak. I wanted this face-off, and I knew he was afraid of Moana." As I watched her, I wondered if she thought she was playing Sandra's Heroes vs Villains game (talking a big game about switching sides, but never actually doing it). The difference was Sharn had people who wanted to get David out. Sandra could lecture at Heroes vs Villains (what I consider one of the greatest arguments in Survivor history) she tried to warn them about Russell, and nobody listened to her. I feel like Sharn's was the diet version of that, like "I could've done it, guys! I didn't, but I could've." Which is why I consider her game to be more like Russell's and less like two-time F2 loser Amanda. Like Russell, Sharn was playing a different game in her head than everyone else saw, and like Russell, the only time she got a hint of the game she actually played was at final tribal council.

That was so odd to watch, mainly because I kept screaming "social distancing! Social distancing!!! Too many people in a room!!!" No way will they do that for the U.S. Survivor finale. My favorite argument was "the winner All Stars deserves." That would've sealed it for me. Excellent season.

Double-posting because of this in the episode thread, and something I've been thinking about lately: Something @peachmangosteen said in Adam's thread about him being set up for an epic fall (or an epic fail) got me thinking how much his edit resembles Noura's last season. Or Angelina's in David vs Goliath. And it made me wonder if Adam does go far in the season because he's the biggest goat. His "I know Ben and Sarah have an idol, I'm not stupid!" reminds me of Angelina's "I'm really good at talking my way out of parking tickets" confessionals. That Adam is the fool of this season, as Angelina was the fool of hers and Noura was last year's fool (albeit a fool-turned-challenge-beast). It seems Adam only exists to put his foot in his mouth (sometimes almost literally), with comic pratfalls and blustering confessionals. It's not a sympathetic edit, it's not an underdog or villain edit. It's the fool's edit. (Watch me be wrong, as I almost always am. But rewatching last episode ... the Yara footage really only exists to remind everyone Sophie has an idol, and for Adam to look ridiculous.)

To my untrained eye, it seemed obvious Aaron and Christian would go, as they are clearly great technical builders, but have next to no creativity. No surprise, as they were bottom 2 last week with the story challenge. Sam and Jessica are more creative, if less polished, and this is clearly a "Lego story building challenge show" versus a "Show off your Lego building skills" challenge show. I like Tyler and Amy's creativity, but she committed the cardinal reality show sin for me of pregnancy-reveal-as-plot-point. Creating an extra human better not mean I'm supposed to be rooting for them (and I know it was last week, but eww, why onscreen? Something about the words: "we just found out." Did you take a pregnancy test while filming? Just ... why?) So, go Mark and Boone.

But where? This disease is in over 150 countries, but the U.S. is now the undesirable location. American citizens are the ones spreading disease. What country is going to let a bunch of U.S. citizens in now? And from everything I'm reading about how deeply CBS/Viacom are in debt, I don't think they have money to throw around to move locations for Survivor. I'm guessing it's Fiji or nothing. I'd be curious to get @grandmabegum's perspective on this, as I cannot imagine any show being cleared to film, even in June. I cover conferences for a living, and those scheduled in July are going virtual. Unless they can do some quick fall filming, I can't see it happening. I don't want to get too far off topic, I just want to be prepared for the very real possibility we will not have Survivor next year. For me, it's better to accept it now than be disappointed later.

This article is so sad to read. Non-essential international travel is banned. Fiji has local transmission, and no matter how friendly they are with the U.S. government, there's no way they're going to want 50 or so Americans from the new COVID-19 epicenter of the world. Unless they're going to shoot in August or September (in rainy, colder Fiji like Australian Survivor), I have a hard time thinking we will see Survivor until 2021. Maybe fall 2021.

This was fine, but my god, the pacing dragged. One hour and nine minutes felt like two hours. Totally suffered from streaming bloat. And not sure I love judging inside the workroom?! And the fact Tim advised against the use of blue, Martha did it anyway and nobody seemed to call her out on it made me fear he's losing his touch as a mentor. He's a nice person, but it highlighted how useless he seems to be in terms of advice (especially compared to Christian Siriano on OG Project Runway). Is "Make it work" trademarked? I appreciated Esther's no-nonsense work ethic. The dress was not sewn to her standards, so she fixed it. No hemming and hawing required.

I was intrigued by something I read in the episode thread, which is essentially Michele is getting a decent edit because it's the editors redeeming themselves for her win (if you said, it kudos to you, you're brilliant). Saying in essence, "See? She deserved her win, and here's why." Adam, whose mvgx edit was low-key but not bad, complained about his edit. A lot. At great length. Claiming they didn't show enough of his social game and all his great relationships. To the point that Dan Foley could have sent him a telegram, all, "Dude." And there's a tiny part of me who wonders if this "Adam trips over his shoelaces" edit isn't the editors going, "Oh, you didn't think we showed your social game? How's this? Can't say we didn't show you enough now."

Now I know why they cut that secret scene last week. Rob (last week): Adam's so astute. Adam (this week): Ben and Sarah have an idol, I know it! His utter lack of a social game continues to baffle me. The absolutely telling (and damning) image of his three other tribemates sitting on a log, eating peanut butter and jelly and Adam standing over them, sort of interrogating them. A literal "no, you can't sit with us." And this absolutely was not Adam in mvgx. There, he made two large, visible blunders: the Mari vote and blabbing to Taylor about the Will vote at the merge. Otherwise, he played an under-the-radar game. He was not always the social moron he's been portrayed as here, alienating every single person he played with in some way. I have to believe the only reason he's still here is his tribe keeps winning. But he had a seat at the table in mvgx, and yesterday, there was literally no place for him to sit.

Oh my god, who is this Adam? The imitating someone else with the raised voice and the "blah blah blah" at the end is so bizarre. I knew someone who did that on mvgx, and it wasn't him. On any other day, I'd think Ben is doing a terrible job of lying to Adam, but the theme this past episode seemed to be "Adam is off on his read of people," because he couldn't tell Sophie was lying, so maybe it's the latter.

Of course, this week claims Yul, the straight-talking, tell-it-like-it-is Dr. Fauci in this Survivor season of slick politicians and sleazy operators. Not a good week for oldschoolers of any sort.

I just recounted and had a lot of uncertain answers. At the risk of inviting ridicule, here are my definites and unsures: Definite: Borneo All Stars Guatemala Kaoh Rong Unsure: Micronesia (Amanda's eyes change color in photos) Tocantins (so do JT's) South Pacific (so do Coach's) Blood vs Water 1 (I don't think Monica has blue eyes?) One World (this was my least likely, because Chelsea does have the coloring, but she squints too much) Season 39 (so does Dean) So, my margin of error is basically +/- 6.

Because I'm sure you were all dying to know, the nearest I can tell from squinting at cast photos, a blue-eyed finalist has defeated all non-blue-eyed finalists to become a Survivor winner a little over a quarter of the time (10 of 39 times). (That is to say, a blue-eyed finalist has won against one or two finalists without blue eyes. If a blue-eyed finalist beat another blue-eyed finalist, they were not counted). But there sure have been a lot of blue-eyed finalists, even if they haven't become blue-eyed winners. My next project is to determine/estimate what percentage of finalists have had blue eyes, because I clearly have nothing better to do with my time.

Bringing this over from Adam's thread as it's mostly about an old contestant: I've only seen Cagayan once, and it's one of my least favorite seasons. But I don't remember Spencer playing both sides like Adam's done this season? I thought Spencer was the one who was double-crossed ("Kass: Zero chance of winning this game") and largely saved himself with late game immunities? My argument that Adam's days are numbered is based on how he blew up his spot on Sele with both sides of the group (and is now on a new tribe with someone who's happy to explain his past actions). I don't recall Spencer doing the same thing on Cagayan: he seemed to be in the perpetual minority alliance, and fought to save himself (I remember Woo and the clue) but if I recall, he didn't make waves like Adam's done this season, which was how Spencer was able to escape notice. You can slip under the radar, but you can't make waves while doing so.

It does give me pause that Edge of Extinction confessionals are filmed close-up. I know it was that way in 38, and it's likely to distinguish them from the medium long shot confessionals of people still in the game. But this time, I feel like they're all secretly living in Rob's giant house he built on 39 (with ample room and fruit and a swing outside), and they don't want to give away their location before they send them to the Edge of Extinction "set."

Bringing this from the episode thread: I haven't been keeping track of confessionals, but it makes sense Adam has more than anyone: his tribe has lost most frequently and he is seemingly the narrator. But I maintain you don't show your winner not knowing where to put their torch at tribal council. Not for 2 million dollars. His edit is far too wacky to be one of a winner, to me. I don't know who's winning, but I'm pretty sure he's not. Keep in mind I was also sure Wendell wasn't winning his season the episode before the finale, and Nick had no prayer on his season. But I'm going to stand here in my wrongness and be wrong (or not).

I missed the first 10 minutes, but who put a bug in these people's ear about fire tokens? First, they were only being used on Edge of Extinction, then to buy advantages, now suddenly they're being swapped for votes? It was like a producer said, "hey guys, remember fire tokens exist. They're our big new thing this season, don't forget." Parvati I can see it being top of mind, as she just received two tokens, but since when does Sandra care about them? Tyson being the first person not to bank his fire tokens, but to spend them immediately on food is both shocking and completely not surprising.

It was funny the first week, but I'm rapidly tiring of Ex on the Beach. Not quite sure why the editors are leaning on the Michele/Wendell relationship storyline so hard. It almost makes me miss the Poker Alliance. Almost. And I agree Yara has to lose next week. That preview seems like a misdirect not showing them.

Public health officials are saying July or August things will get back to normal, according to the latest modeling data (and if defiant spring breakers have their way, it'll be more than that). Even if they lift the recommendation for groups of no more than 10 people, with crew, the reunion show probably has more than 50 people, which is the next highest CDC recommendation. I think this live reunion show is all but canceled, unless they're going to do 20 Skype interviews.

I actually think it's the opposite: I think Adam was a lot more grounded in his first appearance, and is a lot more aimless and flighty here. His social game is off, he's unfocused, he's making a lot of unforced errors. Maybe that makes him more entertaining, but his game play is much poorer. I believe Adam in his natural Survivor habitat is calculating. A social gamebot. His first season he bragged about putting on his buff the wrong way to hide his super fandom, even drinking the water before boiling it to show how naive he was. I see none of that here. This Adam seems lazy. I thought the conversation last episode when Rob had everyone under quarantine (ha ha) spoke volumes. They're shooting the breeze about fried food: "Do you like the mint Oreos? How about the fried Oreos?" Everyone is seemingly participating ... except Adam, who is silent. Now I'd wager Adam's not a huge fan of fried food, but to be shown as silent spoke volumes to me. Adam of "if you're not here to make friends, you're here to lose" doesn't participate in a group conversation? His game is way off. I don't recognize Adam the player or the person from mvgx. I feel like Adam, with his coconut soup and his getting lost on the way to the well and his complete botching of the Parvati blindside this season, has been personified by this:

I hope Colicchio wasn't arguing schools should remain open because of this, because that's where he and I part ways. And now for something entirely different: I have become obsessed with the fact that 55% of the Survivor winners on this cast have blue eyes -- much higher than the 17% of the U.S. population. I know we have people who like to crunch data here, and who have access to old seasons, and I'd be so curious to find out how often a blue-eyed person won when none of the other F2/F3 had blue eyes. It's a small sample, but I find it fascinating (especially on this new Yara/green tribe -- now that Rob is gone, they all have blue eyes! Every single one of them. What are the odds?) So, if a blue-eyed person won against another blue-eyed person (or a non-blue eyed person beat someone with blue eyes), they wouldn't count. But if a blue-eyed person won against those who didn't have blue eyes, they would (for example, I'm thinking of Michele against Aubry and Tai). I don't know, I'd do it myself but I don't have access to old contestant photos handy. Maybe it's nothing, but it seems weird. Or all this social isolation has fried my brain, which is possible, too.

For me, too. I mean, we're in the midst of a global pandemic, where many of us are quarantined/confined to our house. Life is so surreal right now. I was relieved that I absolutely lost it at Sarah Palin in a ridiculous fuzzy bear costume, aggressively spitting out half-revised lyrics to "Baby Got Back." If I couldn't laugh at that, I might've worried for my sanity.

@Lantern7 (or anybody else) know if the COVID-19 outbreak has delayed filming for Challenge 36? I thought they traditionally left in March, similar to Survivor. If Survivor can't film, I cannot imagine this show still can -- for the same reasons as Survivor, that you'd have to quarantine the crew before they left.

Watching it back, I think it's evident Rob just gave up. And I kind of don't blame him. He's seen they went for Amber and they went for Tyson, and he knows he's a dead man walking. And then the swap separated him from Parvati (who'd become his "work wife" in a sense). In that context, "the buddy system" looks more like a hail Mary. Like, "this is all I know how to do, so I might as well do it and see what happens." He might've hung on, tried something with Jeremy and Parvati and Michele on old Sele. But he knew Ben didn't trust him, that Adam played both sides and that Sophie and Sarah were likely part of the vote to get both Amber and Tyson out. So, I think he knew he was done the moment of the swap.

Anybody else notice how many Survivor winners have blue eyes? They have to be dramatically over-represented in Survivor winners versus the rest of the population. Out of 20 past winners on this season, I count 11 with blue eyes. That's 55% of this season's cast compared to 17% of the U.S. population. Maybe it's my new HD TV, but it's really noticeable when they're all in the same space together.