S09.E25: Live Semi-Final Results

[jjjmoss]

I don't care enough to answer all that, so: iTunes.

Edited December 9, 2015 by jjjmoss

[Palomar]

Jeffrey sang well but he always looks like he's expecting any minute for someone to bop him on the head with a two-by-four. And again with the downbeat songs! I would vote him as Singer Most Likely To Commit Suicide Onstage, just because of his demeanor.

 

 

I guess it is a matter of taste as I like the emotional or angry songs over the upbeat happy songs.  Was surprised that Jeffrey didn't make the top 3 without having to compete actually.  This is the second song in a row that Madi completely butchered.  Some songs aren't meant to sound better rearranged and they don't.

[Noreaster]

I don't care enough to answer all that, so: iTunes.

itunes doesn't disclose actual sales data.  So are all your numbers just guesswork?  

[jjjmoss]

http://kworb.net/pop/tracks %s of every song, based on the data that iTunes provides.

Edited December 9, 2015 by photo fox

[rollerblade]

I'm so sick of the older, married family man (Javier, Jermaine, Josh, CWB) winning these shows, and then pretty much falling into obscurity.  I still think Jeffery has the best voice and I think Emily Ann has charisma in spades, which has been devoid in other country artists (including Shelby). I also think Emily Ann could have a future if she's managed correctly.

 

This show isn't called The Younger Single Singer with the Most Potential to be Shaped and Molded. :p

 

Why does it matter if a contestant (regardless of age or marital status) didn't "prosper" from their wins? The show utilizes public voting and that awful Twitter save. It is ultimately a popularity contest. Right place, right time, right song choice, right sob story... have the best combination of this and you win.

 

And since this isn't the early years of Idol with zero competition (anyone remember the pre-Youtube days?), we move on to the next batch of free entertainment, err I mean singers.... in a couple months!

[TiredMe]

I was reading Blake fans comments on social media on a Blake post prior to the show Monday and most were saying, voting for all Blake contestants no matter what. All Blake all the time. So someone will have a hard time convincing me that Barret and a few other seasons isn't the Blake effect. Go away Blake. Between your rabid fans and your strange yipping yell thing you kept doing this season, I am over you!

Jordan or Jeffrey for the win!

[Muffyn]

Let's look on the bright side.  At least Braiden is out.  So while I'm sure he'll be in a group sing or twenty on the finale, at least he won't have several solos too.  

[limecoke]

I thought about this for awhile and decided to go all in for Emily Ann.  She has improved over the course of the show and did a credible job on "9 to 5" - a hard song to pull off.  Besides, she has the best chance of the final four to have a stab at a real career in the biz. 

 

Regarding the barely tolerable Barrett?  America fell for his survivor story and I'm glad I don't fall for stuff like that.  Best of luck to Amy and Madi - I enjoyed their stuff, and to Zach because he's cute.

[Nedsdag]

I know this is late, but here goes:

 

• Barrett is a better looking Tate Stevens (2012 X Factor US winner) with a teaching job. Don't expect much from him in the future or any time else.
• I know she's country, but it would be interesting if Emily Ann tried another musical genre. She has a lot of charisma and she has a decent voice if she doesn't karaoke it.
• Jeffrey is Clay 2.0 except I don't see him getting a recording contract. He needs to show more variety from his typical torch songs.
• Jordan. Next.

[ToxicUnicorn]

Thanks, Muffyn, for taking a shot at explaining who or why someone is voting for Barrett.  At least it gives us a good hypothetical!  However, I have a hard time believing anyone is voting for Barrett because of his backstory with the plane, or because he's a teacher, or because he's a family man or even because he's generically reasonable looking.  So, the only reason I found satisfying was:

 

he has clearly thought through his performances and does not look like any fast movements will scare him off.

which made me laugh pretty hard.

 

I wish the show morphed into a format that rewarded the weird re-imaginings of songs, a la Amy and Madi and Jeffery.  The results may not be to everyone's liking, but those are pretty much the only performances I find interesting any more.  I really don't want to hear any more people singing Queen.  

 

Speaking of Jordan, I agree he will probably win and fade into oblivion, which would be disappointing.  I can't really think of much to say about his style that is unique.  For some reason, I keep comparing him in my head to Chris Mann, who also had a good voice but also never moved me.

 

I think I prefer Emily Ann the most of the 4 of them, but I may hope Jeffrey wins, just so it's not Blake or Adam, again.  I would appreciate never hearing "I want to be the first female coach to win this" again.

[bluepiano]

Ditto to what many have said about the completely outlandish power that Blake and his country army have over this show. if the producers really want a show that is reflective of the larger musical world out there, they will give Blake a hiatus. Or permanent retirement. But as apparently the country audience drives the ratings, that's not likely to happen.

 

Barrett and Emily Anne in the final four? Really???

 

I appreciate that Amy brought something different to this show, but from the very beginning I thought of her as Norah Jones-lite, and I'm not a huge Norah Jones fan. But of all the contestants on this season, including the anointed winner Jordan (pimp spot, Queen song, and gospel choir, really show?) she is probably the most commercial in the real music world. (Maybe Emily Ann in country, but I think that she's really completely generic).

 

Now to Jeffrey. As a long-time professional pianist and singer, I have to say that I think he's maybe the most talented singer I have ever seen on any TV singing competition show. I also have to say that I think the song choices for him all season have been horrendous. He obviously has the talent to sing anything, but every song has been morbid and depressing. I think that with better song choices, one or two upbeat fun rockers or pop songs, he could have been a real rival to Jordan.

 

Well, maybe not. Because Jordan has been playing the country boy who loves Jesus card all year. And as much as his vocal range, that's probably the winning ticket. (Jordan has range, but for me he's boring and one dimensional).

Edited December 10, 2015 by bluepiano

[MaryPatShelby]

Barrett is terrible and should not have made the finals. I would take Madi or Zach over him. BUT I'm not going to blame Blake for America voting him through.

I'm not understanding this Blake hate.  ALL coaches promote their contestants, both on the show ad nauseum ("Vote for this girl!") and on social media; that's their job.  Where are we getting the idea that only Blake does this?  If his fans are more rabid than the fans of the other 3 coaches, that's really not his fault nor a reason for him to be told to "go away", in my opinion.

 

Don't forget he's older than the others "it's not to late to live your dream"!

 

I am not by any means a Barrett fan, in fact I kind of hate him, but I do like that an older person has made it this far (as a non-youngster myself).  Normally the older ones are booted very early in the competition.  I feel bad that I can't force myself to support him.

[basiltherat]

If any other female coach wins before Xtina, she will gouge their eyes out!

 

Besides Christian Contemporary, I think Jordan would be great in the Broadway/musical theatre genre.

[jjjmoss]

Jordan's lead is so big that even though all the other Voice contestants are now booted from the iTunes T10, he still hasn't fallen from #1.

 

And he has 2 other songs in the T100, while the others have 0. Hallelujah is even higher than the song Barrett did this week to get his finale spot.

 

The longest any Sawyer song was in the iTunes T100 is 9 days for Simple Man.
Chandelier’s had 11, Halo’s had 14, Faithfulness has had 14, Hallelujah’s had 10.

Edited December 10, 2015 by jjjmoss

[kili]

How does this translate to the raw number advantage?  What is the number of cumulative votes for Jordan vs. Emily Ann v. Barrett vs. Jeffery?

It's tough to get actual numbers these days, but we know that last week Barrett sold 47K and Emily Ann sold 41K which would be consistent with ratios of 59% and 51%. If Jordan sold 79%, that means he sold about 63K. Kworb estimated 94K, but his estimates were high for Adele and Bieber too that week. 

 

Roughstock gives the numbers for the country songs which can be used if somebody wants to estimate the other sales. 

[Noreaster]

http://kworb.net/pop/tracks %s of every song, based on the data that iTunes provides.

Cool, thanks.  I'll take a look and see if I can come up with anything in terms of calculating cumulative itunes votes.

 

I'm not understanding this Blake hate.  ALL coaches promote their contestants, both on the show ad nauseum ("Vote for this girl!") and on social media; that's their job.  Where are we getting the idea that only Blake does this?  If his fans are more rabid than the fans of the other 3 coaches, that's really not his fault nor a reason for him to be told to "go away", in my opinion.

 

I am not by any means a Barrett fan, in fact I kind of hate him, but I do like that an older person has made it this far (as a non-youngster myself).  Normally the older ones are booted very early in the competition.  I feel bad that I can't force myself to support him.

Blake hate?  On this board?  There's actually a ton of Blake love here.  

 

Older people making it far is actually quite common on this show.  Almost every season, there's at least one in the finals.  

 

It's tough to get actual numbers these days, but we know that last week Barrett sold 47K and Emily Ann sold 41K which would be consistent with ratios of 59% and 51%. If Jordan sold 79%, that means he sold about 63K. Kworb estimated 94K, but his estimates were high for Adele and Bieber too that week. 

 

Roughstock gives the numbers for the country songs which can be used if somebody wants to estimate the other sales. 

Thanks.  I'm going to take a stab at figuring out some of these numbers. 

Edited December 11, 2015 by Noreaster

[MaryPatShelby]

. Go away Blake. 

 

 

if the producers really want a show that is reflective of the larger musical world out there, they will give Blake a hiatus. Or permanent retirement.

 

 

 

 

Blake needs to take next season off and while off find a short plank and take a long walk off of it. (Btw I don't really wish him harm, just wish he would leave and never return)

 

Just so you know I'm not completely bananas, these quotes were on this thread.  That's what I was responding to.

[Noreaster]

Oh okay. That's fair. Though I don't think of that as Blake hate per se, rather hate that seemingly Blake love drives some fans to vote for his contestants.

I think of hate more like...when people say they plan to vote against a contestant simply because they hate a coach.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Noreaster

[Noreaster]

Took a look at some available data for the finalists.  

 

Itunes ranking (playoffs, Top 12, Top 11, Top 10, Top 9) as of vote close:
Jordan        3, 1, 8, 2, 1
Emily Ann   6, 20, 10, 5, 4
Barrett       17, 11, 29, 3, 9
Jeffery       25, 9, 27, 7, 3
Amy           29, 6, 4, 8, 6

 

Weekly sales (playoffs, Top 12, Top 11, Top 10, Top 9) from Billboard and Roughstock
Jordan  (----, 138k, ----, ----, ----)
Emily Ann (21k, 10k, 21k, 41k, ----)
Barrett (11k, 14k, 9k, 47k, ----)
Jeffery (----, ----, ----, ----, ----)
Amy (----, 26k, 38k, ----, ----)

 

The problem is we're missing a lot of numbers for Jordan and Jeffery.  And there's no sales information for the Top 9 week at all.  So instead of calculating the cumulative vote for each contestant, I chose to just estimate Jordan's cumulative vote advantage.  

 

We know that Jordan reached top 10 in all 5 weeks of the live shows. He got the 10x multiplier in every week.  

The closest competitor is Emily Ann who landed in top 10 in 4 of the 5 weeks.  

 

So let's just look at the biggest gap weeks.  Top 12 week for sure and likely Top 9 week based on the kworb.net site (which, as far as I can tell, seems to be in the right ballpark for calculating percentage differences in the itunes rankings).

 

In Top 12 week, Jordan sold 138k for the week.  Assuming all these sales are eligible votes for the multiplier (in the appropriate voting window, are US-based downloads, etc), he received 1.380 million in itunes votes.  This then translates to a 1.380 million lead over Emily Ann since she did not hit Top 10 that week.  

 

In Top 9, Jordan hit #1.  Based on kworb.net (and jjjmoss' post), Emily Ann’s sales are 25% of Jordan’s sales.  How much did Jordan sell?  Who knows. I'm going to make a guess at 90k (my guess is based partly on how Adele had been selling in recent weeks and the kworb.net's estimate of % difference).  Emily Ann would be at 22.5k, and therefore Jordan's lead would be roughly 67.5k sales or 675k in itunes votes including the bonus.    

 

So for the Top 12 and Top 9 weeks combined, I get 1.380 million + 675k = 2.055 million lead for Jordan.  Jordan also sold better than Emily Ann in other weeks.  How much, I don't know.  The kworb.net (jjjmoss' post) indicates that Jordan and Emily are not too far apart, except for Top 10 week.  So maybe I'll guess at another 20k in additional sales or 200k in itunes bonuses.  

 

So total Jordan's cumulative vote lead is roughly 2.2 million.  Again, key assumptions being made are that all of the above numbers are eligible for the cumulative vote amount.  This may be off.  Some of the downloads may be non-US based, outside of the window for the 10x multiplier, etc.  Also I'm assuming that kworb.net site is reasonably accurate.  

 

What is the takeaway?  Is a roughly 2.2 million vote lead for Jordan insurmountable in the final?  I don't think so. People can cast 10 votes per email address in online voting and another 10 votes per email address in app voting.  So that's 220,000 people who vote only once either online or through the app.  And then, I know in prior seasons, some people have talked about going all out in finale voting and using multiple email addresses.  So really far less than 220,000 unique voters for a show with roughly 10-13 million viewers.  I think this cumulative vote lead can be overcome fairly easily.  

Edited December 11, 2015 by Noreaster

[Kromm]

Stoopid country nation, voting so many of Finger Pointer's crappy acts in.

They can't all be Dolly Parton. Oh wait not even 1% of Dolly Parton.

[Kcat1971]

Thanks for that explanation Noreaster.  This also helps me understand a bit more about Season 7 when CWB beat Matt McAndrew.  I think that was the first season when it became clear that itunes was not as good of an indicator as we previously had thought.

 

I am a lot less invested in this season and who will win.  Partially because my favorite has NEVER won.  This season I don't really have a favorite, but I have a strong dislike for Barrett.  A win by any of the other 3 would be o.k. with me.  But given that Jordan does have a itunes lead, he's getting my votes in hopes that Barrett does not win.

[Noreaster]

For season 7, if I remember correctly, there was no cumulative vote for the finals (it was used for the semifinals instead because of that weird wildcard twist). So Matt did not have that advantage going into the finals.

Running the exercise above was interesting for me because I never gave the numbers themselves much thought. But I won't do it again because the cumulative iTunes vote lead is never going to be insurmountable. Votes can be casted too easily in other ways.

The question this season is whether Jordan's iTunes sales accurately reflect his votes through other methods. The iTunes chart has not been a particularly good indicator for the other contestants. Amy did not land in top 6. Emily Ann had a roughly 200k iTunes vote advantage on Barrett in the playoffs yet Barrett (and Zach) got more total votes than her.

[Kcat1971]

For some reason I was thinking that the season they started using the cumulative totals on itunes was the season they were promoting Christina Grimmie over Kristen Merlin?  But there were a lot of hyjinks that season so I could be wrong.  I'm just going off of my (somewhat faulty) memory- not looking  anything up at this point.

 

I'm just ready for season 9 to be over.  If season 10 is anything like 8 & 9, I think I'll be over this show.  

[Noreaster]

The cumulative itunes vote started in season 3.  They've made tweaks to it over the seasons.  Right now there is a limit of 1 purchase per account, but I think it used to be higher in the past.  The multiplier has been different in some years.  Season 7 was the only one when they applied it to the semifinals instead of the finals.  

[bluepiano]

Oh okay. That's fair. Though I don't think of that as Blake hate per se, rather hate that seemingly Blake love drives some fans to vote for his contestants.

 

I posted "if the producers really want a show that is reflective of the larger musical world out there, they will give Blake a hiatus. Or permanent retirement." Bu I didn't think of that as "Blake hate." It's not a personal thing. My feeling is that this show has gotten into a rut by having a coach who is so completely identified with one type of music, and is able to skew the voting by the force of his popularity and connection with a large segment of the audience.

 

Actually, I think that this show would really benefit from having a totally new set of coaches. It's time for some fresh blood across the board. (Which would also mean never having hear the tired, old Blake vs. Adam shtick again).

Edited December 12, 2015 by bluepiano

[Guest]

I keep trying to figure out who Jeffery reminds me off, but so far the only combo I've came up with is Clay Aiken + Richard Blais (shut up!) + a little bit of BamBam Cody Belew. Can't put my finger on who I'm missing though.

He reminds me of Syndrome from the Incredibles.  It's the upswept red hair.  

 

Maybe a woman coach would win if they had a season with three women and one man.  One non-Blake man.  

[Kromm]

He reminds me of Syndrome from the Incredibles.  It's the upswept red hair.  

 

Maybe a woman coach would win if they had a season with three women and one man.  One non-Blake man.  

Don't you think we need them to at least have the balls to try TWO female coaches before that? 

 

Ah, it'll never happen.  They have a "formula".

 

And really Blake is the great Unequalizer. It never matters what he does or who he picks. As long as Country Nation follows him and votes for his Country Acts, that's all he has to do to win most seasons (and if not at least get an annoying number of finalists). 

[DownTheShore]

He reminds me of Syndrome from the Incredibles.  It's the upswept red hair.  

 

THAT'S who he reminds me of! Thank you!

I know we're all sick of the "she's only sixteen!" "he's only seventeen!" comments, but I do think we have to cut some contestants some slack regarding their performances if they aren't seasoned performers. I realize that they are being intensively coached in all areas of their performances, but there's only so much a person can absorb, and I would imagine that just feeling not nervous before a huge audience - or at least giving the appearance of same - occupies a lot of their minds.

Jordan is an overweight guy who doesn't have a deep voice. Unless you are overweight yourselves, you have no idea of all the slights and comments that he has probably gotten over the course of his life. That kind of experience can make you loathe to "make an exhibition" of yourself. So I cut him some slack for not dancing and strutting around the stage like the others, and understand why he tries to remain composed when he's listening to the coaches' comments. When you've been mocked for who you are, you don't want to give others more ammunition if you can help it.

[Padma]

I must be a bigger Blake fan (for this show) than I realized because I think it would be hard to replace him. He's really like "emotional glue", someone who manages to check his ego, keep a good sense of humor at all times (including about himself) and maintain a very friendly vibe toward everyone, contestants and judges alike. Yes, everyone's varying degrees of "nice" (ignoring the toxic Adam-Christina-Tony L. season), but Blake helps rachet down Adam's reported uber-competitiveness and the fake "frenemy" act with Adam gives the show some energy that it would otherwise lack from Pharrell and Gwen (or, before them, CeeLo). Also, Adam can be pretty funny, too--he and Blake are the only ones I remember having much senses of humor, possibly a little from Shakira, otherwise...not so much. I get a little tired of their schtick, too, but I feel it balances more positive than negative. When you look at other music-judging panels, it's hard to find any with this kind of pleasant (and imo still entertaining) chemistry.  But I wouldn't mind them replacing Gwen or Pharrell (or Shakira) with someone who was more articulate and knowledgable about lots of music. That, and the inventiveness, are the two things I still miss about CeeLo that no one else seems able to duplicate.

 

Oh, and I also stubbornly want to push back against the idea that Blake's team does well because HIS fans are voting "for him"!  I have no data to support this (but no one else seems to have any supporting the opposite claim either so....) I think it's mainly because he's very good at branding his team and country music is one of the most popular genres (where his contestants usually have a "lock" on it in the finals) so they get all the votes there.

 

I expected Emily Ann to do well the same way I expected Danielle Bradbery to do well--they're young, pretty and good singers in the country genre. (I liked Danielle much more, but I can see why country music fans would enjoy Emily Ann just as much or more with the choices she's made and the growth she's shown during the season).

 

I admit that "It's all about Blake" would help explain Barrett's placement as F3, but I could also see it as other things--including Blake continuing to ping country music fans by telling them several times that he was "like Garth Brooks". GB is one of the most popular country music stars ever--and is contemporary, still with millions of fans--so I think that Blake saying that may have helped people see Barrett as more talented and attractive and potentially important than he really is.

 

I wouldn't want to see Barrett win (nooooo!!!) or Emily Ann so that's why I'm kind of relieved there's a Jordan Juggernaut that already makes that seem impossible.  Jeffrey could have deserved to win (plus the good thing "first female coach" and all that) but squeaking into the finale--plus all his downbeat song choices--makes him even more of a dark horse than Emily Ann, imo.  But it's okay. I'm just hoping to enjoy the performances, especially the group ones. I really enjoyed Blake and Danielle's version of "Timber", doubt that will be the case with Emily Ann and Blake doing

 "Islands in the Stream"

, but still fun to see them all come back--there are usually a lot of things to enjoy--this time, particularly relaxing since the winner isn't in doubt.

[Noreaster]

I posted "if the producers really want a show that is reflective of the larger musical world out there, they will give Blake a hiatus. Or permanent retirement." Bu I didn't think of that as "Blake hate." It's not a personal thing. My feeling is that this show has gotten into a rut by having a coach who is so completely identified with one type of music, and is able to skew the voting by the force of his popularity and connection with a large segment of the audience.

 

Actually, I think that this show would really benefit from having a totally new set of coaches. It's time for some fresh blood across the board. (Which would also mean never having hear the tired, old Blake vs. Adam shtick again).

Problem is if Blake leaves, the ratings might take a hit.  Blake is clearly a likable guy.  I agree that there are some viewers who vote based on the coach, but those same viewers may leave if Blake is no longer on the show.  

 

Oh, and I also stubbornly want to push back against the idea that Blake's team does well because HIS fans are voting "for him"!  I have no data to support this (but no one else seems to have any supporting the opposite claim either so....) I think it's mainly because he's very good at branding his team and country music is one of the most popular genres (where his contestants usually have a "lock" on it in the finals) so they get all the votes there.

 

I expected Emily Ann to do well the same way I expected Danielle Bradbery to do well--they're young, pretty and good singers in the country genre. (I liked Danielle much more, but I can see why country music fans would enjoy Emily Ann just as much or more with the choices she's made and the growth she's shown during the season).

I forget where I read this but a producer has said that Oklahoma generates the highest or second highest number of votes for The Voice.  

 

Not all of Blake's contestants make it far every season so I think people go a little overboard when they say his contestants make it far solely because of Blake's popularity.  However, I don't think we can deny that the coach is a factor in the voting decision, whether consciously or not. 

 

Personally, I have a negative bias toward Blake's team. Blake often carries some country folks to the live shows and country is simply not my preferred genre.  I also don't care for his coaching style as much. He generally goes the safe route with more straight covers. (For that matter, Barrett's song choice and execution of Ghost in the semi-finals was very un-Blake-like and probably why I enjoyed Barrett this week for the first time.)  My positive bias is toward Adam's team.  I prefer the pop/rock genres and, over the seasons, I found that I appreciate the risks that his team takes. Because my tastes align more with Adam than any other coach, I generally will pay more attention to Adam's comments and weigh his viewpoints a little more heavily.  Doesn't mean I blindly support all of his contestants, but most seasons, I agree with a lot of what Adam says and I end up having at least one favorite on Adam's team.  

 

I admit that "It's all about Blake" would help explain Barrett's placement as F3, but I could also see it as other things--including Blake continuing to ping country music fans by telling them several times that he was "like Garth Brooks". GB is one of the most popular country music stars ever--and is contemporary, still with millions of fans--so I think that Blake saying that may have helped people see Barrett as more talented and attractive and potentially important than he really is.

Serious question...do people here see a similarity between Barrett and Garth Brooks?  Because Blake says this type of stuff every season (I want to buy that on itunes, you remind me of  XYZ artist, you're the person people want to have a beer with, etc).  Are people really buying into what he's saying?  Because what some call good marketing, I see as a lot of bullshit that I would think many other long-term viewers would just ignore at this point.  Though I guess to my point above, some people who find that their tastes align pretty well with Blake's may be more willing to believe (or agree with) what he's saying every season.  

Edited December 14, 2015 by Noreaster

[DownTheShore]

I enjoy this show because of Blake. He amuses me and I enjoy his interplay with Adam. I'm not that into country music and I think that maybe I own one of his songs, so I'm not one of his posse. But I've come to really appreciate his talent and his coaching skill - something that I.would never have been aware of without this show. I don't vote for his team members because they are his; I'll only vote for them if I happen to like them. I follow very few TV shows regularly; the Voice is one of them. If Blake wasn't on it, I don't know how long that would continue.

[ToxicUnicorn]

Serious question...do people here see a similarity between Barrett and Garth Brooks?

 

No.  Not at all.  Not even a little bit.

 

I see a similarity between Barrett and Beaker the Muppet.  Which baffles me, because I LOVE Beaker the Muppet.