S31: Ciera Eastin

[Skeeter22]

Varner was seriously injured in the blindfold immunity challenge. He could barely walk after dropping a puzzle block on his foot. Abi basically had no choice but to vote for him. I don't think Tasha had any control over Abi. Tasha wanted to vote Varner over Peih-Gee but couldn't get Abi to agree.

Andrew really showed his hypocrisy when criticizing Kass and Ciera for voting out Woo. He had the nerve to complain to Jeremy that they were liars and not "Bayon Strong" when Jeremy voted out a Bayon and saved Spencer just a week earlier.

[loki567]

 

I can see where Andrew would say that.  I'll wait for everyone else to speak for themselves.

 

I imagine it was like Savage telling a group of people, "She doesn't deserve to be out here!" and that same group of people saying, "Yeah, sure, whatever, Andrew."

 

 

I think too that if Jeff had some personal interest in Andrew he'd at least have him not edited like an arrogant douchebag.  Look at the whitewash edits Jeremy and Keith have gotten.

 

YMMV, but I feel he actually got a much better edit because he was Probst's friend. I think if the editors weren't under some producer pressure, they would have gone all in on him. I felt like they had to sneak in his bad moments and Probst let those moments slip because he likes arrogant douchebags. 

 

It's a thin line between Savage and Culpepper is my point. 

[kikaha]

I don't know how in the world you can criticize Ciera for being a pawn in BvW, then in the next breath criticize her for making a move that was about shoring up her position in the game and talk about how she should have done nothing except be a number in the majority alliance until the "right time."

 

That was then and this is now.  Ciera is on record saying she was too timid her first season.  She set out to change that, to take control of her own destiny.  IMO she did not shore up her position.  Just the opposite.  She blew it up, totally unnecessarily. 

 

How is it "dumb luck" that Ciera's still in the game? Because her tribes won all the challenges?

 

I wasn't thinking of the challenges, though I suppose you can add that to the list as well.  e.g. what if she had been on Ta Keo or landed on a weak tribe after either shuffle?

 

Ciera was very lucky that: a) she didn't get voted out at the Kass boot, b) Bayon targeted Kelley last episode; and c) Bayon did not spilt the vote.  She almost single-handedly created this mess.  So far she has escaped with her life, though not through her own good play.    

 

That last point © shows us again how poorly she analyzed what was really going on out there.  The reason Bayon did not split the vote is that there were too many cracks in it.  They were afraid someone like Stephen might turn on their own.  Even if Ciera was on the bottom of Bayon -- not at all established -- Bayon had huge divisions, that were regularly changing, and that could have given any number of openings.  

[bdestroyer88]

That was then and this is now.  Ciera is on record saying she was too timid her first season.  She set out to change that, to take control of her own destiny.  IMO she did not shore up her position.  Just the opposite.  She blew it up, totally unnecessarily. 

 

 

I wasn't thinking of the challenges, though I suppose you can add that to the list as well.  e.g. what if she had been on Ta Keo or landed on a weak tribe after either shuffle?

 

Ciera was very lucky that: a) she didn't get voted out at the Kass boot, b) Bayon targeted Kelley last episode; and c) Bayon did not spilt the vote.  She almost single-handedly created this mess.  So far she has escaped with her life, though not through her own good play.    

 

That last point © shows us again how poorly she analyzed what was really going on out there.  The reason Bayon did not split the vote is that there were too many cracks in it.  They were afraid someone like Stephen might turn on their own.  Even if Ciera was on the bottom of Bayon -- not at all established -- Bayon had huge divisions, that were regularly changing, and that could have given any number of openings.  

a) Luck is part of the game, so you can't judge her game because she landed on great tribes. 

 

b) Kass was always the target at the first merge vote because of Tasha. Ciera was never going home that day, Kass was. 

Edited November 16, 2015 by bdestroyer88

[kikaha]

I agree you have to make big moves to win, but it's different from being your trademark.  I agree she didn't make big moves before.  I don't think anyone thinks she did besides the marketing line of "voted out here mother".  

 

You can get to the end by playing Kelly Wig's game but you can't win (unless we see more, and without Russell).  It's just a fact that you virtually always need some resume points to win and 'I didn't make waves and I did the dishes' isn't going to impress many jurors.

I never suggested she play like Wigs.  I suggested she choose her timing better. 

 

Yeah, it's kind of a chicken or egg situation.  Is Ciera on the outs for playing loudly or is she playing loudly because she's on the outs?  To me, B just makes more sense.  It's not like she hit the beach scrambling, like Shirin.   

She's on the outs because she turned on her alliance, failed, and is now in the minority.  She's playing loudly because she doesn't know what else to do, after her own actions put her on the outs.  The loud stuff is not helping her, though.  It's branding her even more.  Still another sign that she does not know how to play subtly.  This season especially that is almost sure to kill your game. 

 

 

Ciera's 24 and the mother of two.  She kind of gets talked about like she's 13 and how dare she speak up at tribal or be mouthy with Andrew or play her own game.  

 

I thought she acted like an adolescent her first season.  She whined a lot about her mother dragging down her (Ciera's) game.  She also made a critical mistake, that was childish IMO: gladly going along with her mother's boot, even voting for her, when she should have tried to keep her.  This proved to Tyson how cutthroat and untrustworthy Ciera was. 

 

This season she regularly lectures the others on 'playing the game.'  Blecchh.  More childish behavior: they ARE playing the game, better than she is. 

[loki567]

 

I thought she acted like an adolescent her first season.  She whined a lot about her mother dragging down her (Ciera's) game.  She also made a critical mistake, that was childish IMO: gladly going along with her mother's boot, even voting for her, when she should have tried to keep her.  This proved to Tyson how cutthroat and untrustworthy Ciera was.

 

Of course, interviews established that she did try and save her mom, Caleb and Hayden wouldn't go along with it. And no, Tyson didn't realize how, "cutthroat and untrustworthy," she was, he just realized that Monica was the better player to take to the F3. He didn't make any sort of move against Ciera until after she forced his hand during the purple rock vote.

 

And you're still ignoring the fact that the only reason the move blew up on her this season against Savage is because of the earliest merge ever, which had never happened before and Ciera couldn't predict.

Edited November 16, 2015 by loki567

[kikaha]

Winston, a quick internet search yielded this:

 

In EW's post-game interview after BvW Ciera says, "I had a fear that I would risk things to keep my mom around, and then when everybody got wise, my mom would win a challenge and they would vote me out."

 

From an RHAP article summarizing the action right before Ciera voted against Laura: "We even heard Ciera say that she worries about her mom ruining her game so Laura could fall victim to her daughter’s power move."

 

While I haven't re-watched that season, I'm sure I heard the same thing RHAP reported, i.e. Ciera complain that her mother was ruining things for her. 

 

loki: even before they booted Laura, Tyson said Ciera was ":too sneaky, too smart and too deceiving to be in the game.”  Then after the vote he said, "it makes me a little scared of her. I can see that she’s playing the game pretty hard. I think she’s underestimated by a lot of people and she’s going to be dangerous."

 

So while Ciera thought she was proving loyalty, she in reality achieved the opposite.  As Tyson said, "I trust Monica.  I trust Gervase.  Ciera is a major wild card.” 

 

Early merge is not the only reason Ciera's game blew up.  She faced a real rocky road, no matter what.  Even if she managed to boot Savage next episode (no sure thing) she would have turned herself into the #1 target, without the safety a majority alliance behind her... having almost no prayer of winning immunities... and her not showing the leadership qualities that might have kept her safe.

 

She became public enemy #2 or #3 anyway.  So by making that premature move, win or lose she painted a big bulls-eye on her back.  Ill-advised all around. 

[NutMeg]

Regarding Ciera, I undestand both sides of the arguments, and until we see how it's played out, I find it difficult to judge.

 

On the one hand, Ciera finds herself in a weak position in her tribe, and takes action to move things.

 

On the other hand, her actions are often clumsy, and sometimes a more covert approach works much better than an all-out-guns-ablazing one.

 

You do need to save yourself, but sometimes you also need to lay low and bide your time (Sandra in HvV) is a good example of that strategy gone right, as is Natalie White, or even the last Natalie winner. I don't fault her for trying to improve her position, but I do fault her for the rather immature way she's doing it (as far as editing is showing us, so take that with a grain of salt) and for her propensity to easily burn bridges before being sure that they are less solid than they look.

 

Back in her first season, I found her entertaining (and still do) but also thought she was a clumsy player, not able to build real relationship with the people that could matter to her game, and I think that is still the case. Jeff might be telling us all he wants about how she participated in voting her mother out, I will always think that going to purple rocks was when she most actively acted.

 

She's a bit on the annoying side with her antics at tribal and she seems very intent to "make big moves", which could be detrimental to her game down the road. Then again, at least she's not passively waiting for the end of her game. So at this stage the jury is still out on her for me.         

 

Edited for typos - they'll be the desth of me :-(

Edited November 16, 2015 by NutMeg

[Zuleikha]

If Ciera had succeeded in booting Savage, at this point, it seems likely that Ta Keo 5+ would have won the post-merge battle. It's sounding like Savage was the reason that Joe went with the Brolliance, and Joe was the reason that Spencer/Keith went there and Wentworth voted Tasha. So far from being Public Enemy #1, Ciera would have been in a great position. If that's wrong, again, it doesn't matter whether Ciera aligned with Savage for the Spencer boot or not. She was screwed anyway because she wouldn't have the numbers.

 

 

 

Even if Ciera was on the bottom of Bayon -- not at all established -- Bayon had huge divisions, that were regularly changing, and that could have given any number of openings.

Except we're not seeing these hug, regularly changing divisions on Bayon. What we're seeing is Stephen being focused on getting out Joe and only Joe, and Joe responsively wanting to target Stephen. However, neither currently seems interested in actually flipping on the alliance, and both have been kept under control easily. Everyone seems content to have Savage/Tasha/Jeremy run things, with Stephen/Joe merely fighting over which of them gets to be #4. I have yet to read any explanation for why this would be different with Spencer gone.

 

I also think it's factually untrue that everyone is playing hard. I don't think Keith, Kimmi, or Wigles are playing hard. I think they're pretty clearly just floating along at the mercy of Savage/Tasha/Jeremy. The verdict is out for me on Spencer as well because right now, he seems to be simply attaching himself to Jeremy with no solid reason to believe Jeremy will take Spencer farther than Stephen. 

Edited November 16, 2015 by Zuleikha

[kikaha]

Zuleikha, you came up with three people out of eleven who are not playing hard.  I agree with you about two of them.  Keith and Kelly.  Kimmi has been a mixed bag.  Either way, by your own count most people are playing hard. 

 

Ciera agreed with this.  In a post-game article she said, “Even when there were days off, there was constant strategizing going on.  There was never a time when it wasn’t."  She also said the game was on from the get-go, and this season, "not only do you have all these players who have played before, they are extra thirsty for the win. It’s cutthroat.”

 

Stephen wants to take out Joe.  Joe wants to take out Stephen.  Spencer is pretty much a free agent, open to anything.  Kelley, Abi and Ciera, even though they are now on the bottom, have been approached by several people from Bayon.  While Keith won't lead, he jumps ship a lot, which makes him unpredictable.  Kelley felt more comfortable at merge because she thought he was in her camp, only to see him flip his vote.  Abi has been a wild card, Kelli can marshal forces when she feels threatened, Jeremy has multiple deals and side alliances going on.   

 

Just about every tribal, the person who got booted either was stunned, had seen a major change in fortune, or both.  Last episode the target shifted four times in the space of a few hours.  One of Bayon's leaders ended up getting clipped.  This could open lines of attack even more.

 

Ciera tells us the strategizing never let up; the season was cutthroat. Far more, she said, than her earlier season.  So I think we're seeing a lot of play.  I also think a lot of work is taking place behind the scenes, that doesn't make the edit, probably due to time constraints.  What else could Ciera mean when she says the strategizing never let up, there was never down time, everyone was 'extra thirsty' to win? 

 

Joe did trust Savage.  What we don't know is who he would trust if Savage had gotten booted.  Jeremy has done a great job gaining trust from others.  It wouldn't surprise me if he had gained Joe's as well.  Especially since they had good prior experience, and the other side had just betrayed their own to take out another major alpha.  

 

I think these kinds of speculations are interesting, but real inexact: the butterfly effect really holds in Survivor.  I feel more comfortable with what I see as the broad brush strokes.  And in this case, those broad strokes are that Ciera was in a safe position at F13 and probably for several episodes more... had time to position her pieces, in a season that is more wide open than any I've seen... and forfeited all that in a risky move, made way too soon, that would make her the biggest target no matter what. 

[LadyChatts]

Everybody constantly strategizing could mean different things.  Is it a few individuals calling the shots, and their sub alliance runs off with them?  According to Kass, herself, Ciera, Abi, and Wentworth could not talk to anybody without the heads of the broalliance following them.  She felt if she could have gotten to Joe, she might have stood a chance.  Given Joe's bond with Savage, that was unlikely.  But she never even got the chance to approach him without having Savage around.  So is it a case of Jeremy and his core minions are making sure no one is ever off with someone that could potentially flip the game on them, or are people actually playing this for themselves and they just aren't bothering to show us (with how the editing works on this season, it could certainly go that way).  Until it plays out, I'm always skeptical of claims like that.  And Ciera would pretty much contradict herself, since she doesn't think anyone but a handful are playing this game for themselves.

Edited November 16, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Oholibamah]

We are sitting on couches, full of pizza and, in my case, wine. We can sit here until we're blue in the face arguing the virtue/stupidity of any move, but the context isn't the same.

In Ciera's brain, she was aligned with Keith/Joe/Wentworth/Kass. She likely assumed she'd be opposed by Savage/Tasha/Jeremy/Kimmi/Stephen come merge, and now Woo. Assuming they'd merge at 12, she had the chance to not only cut down her opponent's numbers with a Woo boot, but gain Abi and Spencer in the process, and the likely opportunity to cut the numbers further later by targeting Savage the following week.

I agree that her approach alienated players like Keith, but again, context problem: if twitter is to be believed, players started defecting back to a Bayon controlled majority immediately. So we have chicken/egg again. Yes, the Woo boot turned Savage against her, but so what? He was already against her. She had every reason to believe she was sitting pretty with a 7 person alliance where every member is an equal with no firm core groupings. It should have been a cakewalk.

If she'd gone along with the Spencer boot, where does that leave her? She still has the Ta'Keo 5, but now Spencer is gone, Abi has no reason to align with Ciera, and Woo is still Andrew's loyal foot soldier. The only advantage is that she can pretend she's Bayon strong and be targeted at 8 instead of 13? Or wait until 8 to exploit theoretical cracks? Or somehow float to the Top 3 against Jeremy and say she deserves the money because she chilled for 39 days? Of course there are cracks, but who's to say she is part of anybody's plans at 8? Especially knowing players are simultaneously afraid of her and don't respect her. Furthermore, there still ARE cracks. Those don't disappear just because she outed herself as an erratic player.

It may not have worked out the way she intended, but I don't understand how ridding yourself of a known enemy, aligned with your know enemy, to keep somebody who might work with you, is a bad move. It is incomprehensible. I'm not saying she's some mastermind player who can do no wrong. Her approach is clumsy and erratic. But the Woo boot will never not be a great move.

The great thing about Ciera is that to her, getting 2nd is the same as getting 13th. She had the chance to improve her chances of winning by running a 7 person alliance at the cost of going home earlier. And that move was prudent, even if it didn't work out.

[peachmangosteen]

Andrew really showed his hypocrisy when criticizing Kass and Ciera for voting out Woo. He had the nerve to complain to Jeremy that they were liars and not "Bayon Strong" when Jeremy voted out a Bayon and saved Spencer just a week earlier.

 

But Jeremy is a man, silly! He can do whatever he wants, but Ciera should've known her place. Ah, Andrew.

 

The great thing about Ciera is that to her, getting 2nd is the same as getting 13th.

 

Yep. And I respect that. Of course I also don't really care when people don't particularly play to win as well, as long as they understand that's what's happening. Like if Kimmi is just trying to get as far as she can and realizes she has no shot at winning then hey more power to her, but if she truly believes she can win by doing nothing but riding to the end with Jeremy and Stephen then I can't respect that.

Edited November 16, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[SimonHumboldt]

So you think she was fine when Andrew threw her name out as the decoy?  You think she was in the power alliance's inner circle then and would've been better off than she is now by just keeping her mouth shut?

 

Ciera talks big about making big moves. So when Andrew names her as a decoy and exposes that she is on the bottom of his totem pole, her "big move" is to swtich the target from Spencer to ... Woo?  Your big move is blindsiding a player of zero consequence?

 

Ciera's problem is that her so-called big move wasn't nearly big enough. She just discovered she was on the bottom with a power player like Savage. Therefore, the true aggressive big-move was to blindside Savage.

 

If she couldn't pull it off, then yes, the next best thing would be to shut up, work your realtionships, and find the right moment to get him before he gets you.

 

The worst thing she could have done was antagonize the power player by keeping him out of the loop on a blindside, draw a line in the sand between him and you, and allow him to place you firmly on top of the boot list. The worst move she could have made was exactly what she did.

[LadyChatts]

Ciera couldn't blindside Savage because Abi wouldn't go along with it.  And then what if Abi, knowing she has no solid alliance, goes back to Savage and tells him that Ciera wanted him out?  Vote suddenly changes from Spencer to Ciera.  So she took out Woo, and maybe she did do it out of Bayon loyalty.  I really can't see a case where this would have worked for Ciera.  She never would have gotten Savage out at the merge.  He was too embedded in the Bayon majority alliance, Jeremy likely wouldn't want one of his shields going, Stephen is too dead set on getting Joe out to think of another possibility, and the others fall in line behind what Jeremy says.  I think either way she was coming out on the bottom.  And, as has been discussed, she like everyone didn't anticipate the early merge.  Had she known it was coming, Savage probably would have gone and Woo survived.  Abi be damned.

[ProfCrash]

I don't know, I think I'd choose taking out one of Andrew's allies over sitting back and waiting for the slim chance I could take out Andrew himself in a blindside before he could take me out.  It's not like she'd be in the driver's seat once Andrew was out.  She'd be in the same position she currently is, but with Woo as another man against her.  

 

 

Ciera couldn't blindside Savage because Abi wouldn't go along with it.  And then what if Abi, knowing she has no solid alliance, goes back to Savage and tells him that Ciera wanted him out?  Vote suddenly changes from Spencer to Ciera.  So she took out Woo, and maybe she did do it out of Bayon loyalty.  I really can't see a case where this would have worked for Ciera.  She never would have gotten Savage out at the merge.  He was too embedded in the Bayon majority alliance, Jeremy likely wouldn't want one of his shields going, Stephen is too dead set on getting Joe out to think of another possibility, and the others fall in line behind what Jeremy says.  I think either way she was coming out on the bottom.  And, as has been discussed, she like everyone didn't anticipate the early merge.  Had she known it was coming, Savage probably would have gone and Woo survived.  Abi be damned.

These two posts are right on.

 

Abi would vote Woo but not Andrew. Woo was going to be loyal to Andrew, so taking out one of his henchmen was a good thing. Toss in that Andrew's offering up Ciera as the pawn and Ciera can easily figure out that Andrew values Woo more then her which makes it that much more important to take out Woo. Finally, no one expected a new tribe mix up to last one vote and for the merge to happen at 13. I suspect that they would have targeted Andrew at the next vote if they had lost. They would have had Ciera, Kass, Spencer vs Andrew, Abi (maybe). Kelly* probably would have voted with Ciera, Kass, and Spencer at the next tribal and Andrew would have been gone.

 

*Kelly was on that tribe right? I remember the other tribe being Jeremy, Stephen, Kimmi, Keith, Joe, Tasha and Kelley were on the other tribe so Kelly had to be on Andrew's tribe.

[Zuleikha]

Zuleikha, you came up with three people out of eleven who are not playing hard.  I agree with you about two of them.  Keith and Kelly.  Kimmi has been a mixed bag.  Either way, by your own count most people are playing hard.

 

Four, actually. I included Spencer, but I gave him the courtesy of a question mark since it's possible (but IMHO unlikely) he's working people to try and set up for some sort of take control move at some point. Four would be the amount of people Ciera and Kelley called out at the last Tribal Council.

 

FWIW, I think Stephen/Joe are playing hard but stupid (since they appear to be targeting each other only rather than trying to counter the dominant alliance). I do believe Stephen/Joe believe they have a path to winning, but I think they're both underestimating what sitting next to Jeremy would mean for them in terms of winning. 

[kikaha]

FWIW, I think Stephen/Joe are playing hard but stupid (since they appear to be targeting each other only rather than trying to counter the dominant alliance).

 

I agree with you about Stephen.  Big disappointment to me, as he obsesses about Joe.  Won't surprise me at all to see him get booted soon.  Joe is doing pretty well, playing both sides of the aisle.  He is too big a target, though.  If he doesn't keep winning or find some idols, hard to believe any amount of schmoozing and promises will save him.  

[KimberStormer]

If only he would, for example, listen to Ciera, and join with the people at the bottom to make a move, instead of sitting on his butt waiting till it's too late.

 

If you're a "big threat" like Joe, the only way you survive without winning every single immunity is be aligned with people who absolutely cannot do without you.  That sure ain't Jeremy & Co.  That's Ciera, Wentworth, and Abi.

Edited November 16, 2015 by KimberStormer

[LadyChatts]

I don't think Joe would be against Stephen if Stephen hadn't hit the ground running on a mission to get rid of Joe.  That's where I think Stephen went wrong.  He should have entertained the idea just to get a feel of where people stood with Joe, and when he realized people weren't onboard with booting him when he wanted to, stood back.  Unlike Ciera/Abi/Wentworth, his position in the game wasn't in any jeopardy.  But, I believe Stephen will vote with the majority and when they are ready to get Joe, he'll gladly go along with it.  Not realizing he's getting rid of one golden boy but keeping potentially bigger threats to his game.

 

Joe's gone out of his way to try and save Wentworth.  I believe 100% she will write his name down if it means she's safe for 3 more days.  However, if she sees an opportunity to keep a big shield, keep an ally, and get rid of Stephen, maybe she'll take it.  I still believe there's a chance Stephen overplays his hand on booting Joe and gets himself or one of his key allies ousted instead.

[violet and green]

You don't have to make a case to justify your opinions to me, I respect them.  But that doesn't really sound to me like she was whining about her mom ruining her game.  I think it was normal in a BvW season to worry about the potential of how your relative would affect your gameplay.  I'm sure they all did that, and said so on camera or in interviews at some point.  It was the whole theme. 

 

It isn't opinion. I recall the footage. I am sure she loves her mother, etc, but she was distinctly whining, bitching and kvetching in an eye-rolling manner that her mother coming into her existing tribe was going to scotch her chances as she, Ciera, was in her mind such a master of the social game, etc. She's whiny.

 

edit: it's funny how often I spell her name incorrectly - is Cierra the car?

Edited November 16, 2015 by violet and green

[kikaha]

 

If you're a "big threat" like Joe, the only way you survive without winning every single immunity is be aligned with people who absolutely cannot do without you.  That sure ain't Jeremy & Co.  That's Ciera, Wentworth, and Abi.

 

That only works if those people have the numbers.  If they don't, and you align with them, you still sign your own death warrant as soon as you lose.  Idols could change that. 

[peachmangosteen]

It isn't opinion. I recall the footage. I am sure she loves her mother, etc, but she was distinctly whining, bitching and kvetching in an eye-rolling manner that her mother coming into her existing tribe was going to scotch her chances as she, Ciera, was in her mind such a master of the social game, etc. She's whiny.

 

That's an opinion. It's just how you interrupt Ciera's personality/words. Others don't see whiny and instead see feisty, others don't see bitching about her mom and instead see stating facts about how her mom might hurt her gameplay (like every other member of BvW did and were probably encouraged to do by Production), etc.

 

That only works if those people have the numbers.  If they don't, and you align with them, you still sign your own death warrant as soon as you lose.

 

This is exactly what's gonna happen to Joe and Spencer once they follow along with Jeremy's wishes and get out the only people on the tribe who aren't just doing as Jeremy wants. Once they're all gone then Joe and/or Spencer won't have the numbers left to go after the J/T/S alliance unless Keith and Kelly both become smarter and more aggressive then they've been all game.

 

This gave me some Joe thoughts, but I'll take them to his thread since this post is already pretty OT here.

Edited November 16, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[violet and green]

That's an opinion. It's just how you interrupt Ciera's personality/words. Others don't see whiny and instead see feisty, others don't see bitching about her mom and instead see stating facts about how her mom might hurt her gameplay (like every other member of BvW did and were probably encouraged to do by Production), etc.

 

 

Oh, dear. My opinion is Ciera is whiny.

 

The footage existed. That is not opinion.

 

But objective truth also exists. We (humans) can most of the time objectively agree that certain emotions are present.

 

Ciera could well have said, gosh darn golly, mom is really going to screw my game! - and delivered it with any number of facial expressions and emotions. Being Ciera, she delivered it in a whiny, cranky, contemptuous and adolescent way.

 

Next you'll be telling me Abi is always sweet as sugar and I am merely projecting my opinion when I note she can be a bit abrasive.

[KimberStormer]

That only works if those people have the numbers.  If they don't, and you align with them, you still sign your own death warrant as soon as you lose.  Idols could change that. 

 

If they had the numbers without Joe, they wouldn't need him.  Had Joe fought for it, he could probably have gotten Savage, Kelly, Keith along with the girls--that's 7, that's numbers, and Joe as the lynchpin of this new alliance, who need him for a good long while.  Instead he chickened out and will probably go home the next time he loses immunity.  This is, in fact, exactly what Ciera was talking about.  Joe is too passive to upset the applecart and is just going along instead of taking the game in his own hands.  He's not playing to win.  That's the whole frustration that Ciera has.

Edited November 17, 2015 by KimberStormer

[kikaha]

Kimber, I think there's no way Andrew turns on Jeremy and Tasha, unless they plot against him.  Which I feel 100% sure they would NOT do until late in the game, if ever.   

 

Also, once Ciera's group has good numbers, they don't need Joe either.  He is useful to them, only in the way he's useful to his tribes before merge: to protect them from getting booted.  They sure don't want to sit next to him at FTC.

 

No one wants to sit next to Joe.  Everyone will boot him, as soon as they have decent numbers and he loses immunity.  Maybe Andrew wouldn't have.  The others are almost unanimous in this. 

 

Ciera's frustration stemmed from screwing up, and not being able to convince enough other players to join her alliance. 

[KimberStormer]

Kimber, I think there's no way Andrew turns on Jeremy and Tasha, unless they plot against him.  Which I feel 100% sure they would NOT do until late in the game, if ever.   

 

Also, once Ciera's group has good numbers, they don't need Joe either.  He is useful to them, only in the way he's useful to his tribes before merge: to protect them from getting booted.  They sure don't want to sit next to him at FTC.

 

Maybe.  You seem to think that "everyone is playing", or doesn't that include Andrew?  If you can make up hypotheticals that prove that Ciera is an idiot (somehow, some way, somebody was going to flip for her, as long as she didn't move against Savage/Woo), I can make up some that prove the same about Joe.  Savage was certainly ready to vote out Stephen.  Joe could have convinced him to do so against Jeremy's wishes, I think.

 

And yes, of course, Joe has to keep playing the game.  Sorry Joe!  You don't get to sit there doing nothing, even after you make a move.  Tony knew that.  Ciera knows it too.  Everyone is playing the game, right?  It's the most dynamic group ever?  He gets a group that needs him, and then when they don't need him he flips to another group that needs him again.  If he can't do it, tough, I don't make the Survivor rules.

Edited November 17, 2015 by KimberStormer

[kikaha]

KimberStormer, your last sentence there is the key.  He can't do it.  I'm not sure anyone who stands out so much to the group can.  No one needs him for long.  He quickly becomes a bigger liability than asset.  While I think that is a general Survivor axiom, it's probably even more true in all-star seasons, which have higher ratios of top-notch, experienced schemers and plotters. 

 

Doesn't bother me a bit.  Those players haven't positioned themselves properly to win the game -- unless they run the table/idol play their way to the win.  Only one player has ever done that.  And he succeeded only after the real challenge beast of that season lost an IC and got booted. 

[KimberStormer]

So your position is Joe can't win, therefore he should just stay in the alliance doing nothing?  Why is he even there then?

 

I know this feels a little off-topic to Ciera, but it's the point she was making.  Play the game.  Do your best, like she's doing.  Even if you're in a hole.  Don't just say "oh well, nothing I can do."

[kikaha]

I think Joe can win.  But because he has been such a challenge beast/fire maker/comfort creator/great guy everyone likes, I doubt he can win by strategizing.  He put way too big a target on his back with all that. 

 

My guess is his only road to the finals is winning immunities and finding idols.  Even if his alliances keep him safe a few times at this stage (which they may not -- look how quickly Bayon jumped on 'get Joe' wagon last week) the deeper they go, the bigger the threat Joe poses. 

 

Joe's mistake IMO is standing out in positive ways, far too much.  I think you gotta be more stealth in this game.  That does not seem like him though. 

[kikaha]

btw, I don't feel Joe is doing nothing.  He's clearly reaching out, trying to make deals with lots of people.  I just don't think that will come to anything for him, except maybe short-term.  My hunch is that Stephen will get booted first, though, a victim of his Joe obsession. 

 

in this past week, actually I posted an idea that Ciera still has a shot.  Maybe her threesome could recruit Joe, and he could possibly bring a few more with him, such as Keith and possibly Kelly or Spencer or both.  That would give that group the numbers, and so long as they could navigate around Jeremy's idol, a path to the end. 

 

But of what use is Joe to them, once they are up by, say, two or three?  He beats everyone at FTC.  Their incentive is to bounce him as soon as he has outlived his usefulness to them, which seems to me damn fast. 

 

I think Jeremy/Tasha feel Joe has already outlived his usefulness -- they looked on board with Stephen's scheme to cut Joe last week.  Only Savage was truly in Joe's corner, and he's gone.  So at this point Joe is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.  So I believe anyway. 

[Oscirus]

We don't know how much time Ciera had or what existing relationship existed between her and Abi. We either trust Ciera's tweets or we don't.

 

 

Let's see what her tweets say about the situation.

 

no sorry let me clarify... I knew I could pull Abi in for a vote if it was woo going. But I wasn't sure she would turn on savage.

 

So yes, basically she didn't even try turning Abi. She knew she could get Woo and instead of putting in the work to convince Abi to go after Savage, she rested on her laurels and went for the easiest vote.  I'm all for going for the easy vote but doesn't that contradict her advice from tribal?

 

Basically,  it comes down to is this, there is no way in hell that Jeremy should be in a power  since he's basically been on Bayon for his whole trip. Especially when a) he was separated from his meat shield alliance post swap/premerge ( except for three days) b) he's only been on the same tribe with three takeo people post swap/premerge.

Kass and Ciera  picked up quite a few Takeo allies on their way to the merge. All Kass and Ciera had to do was convince Abi to vote Savage  and they'd be running shit right now. But they didn't , they chose to take half measures and that's why Ciera's in the position she's in. Blaming her mistakes on other people's unwillingness to play or other player's misogyny is beyond ridiculous.

 

The great thing about Ciera is that to her, getting 2nd is the same as getting 13th

 

Which is why she's playing as if she wants to be a goat right now? Did she get jury management lessons from Hantz?

 

Had Joe fought for it, he could probably have gotten Savage, Kelly, Keith along with the girls--that's 7

 

 

Savage really? Ignoring the fact that Kass Ciera and Savage barely tolerate each other, Savage is probably the one of the two people out there that was serious about Bayon strong thing. So no, Joe was never going to get Savage.

Edited November 17, 2015 by Oscirus

[KimberStormer]

Voting out Stephen was Savage's idea in the first place.  Sure Joe could get him to do that.  Anyway if Ciera should have tried to get Abi to vote Savage, Joe should have tried to get Savage to vote Stephen.

 

I don't feel Ciera is playing goatishly, except to people in the audience inexplicably pissed off at her for saying the same thing we say every single season.  If she flipped people by playing hard, that would gain respect, not make people angry.  I don't think anyone was pissed at Hayden.  Russell would never make the kind of case that Ciera is making, the comparison is absurd.  Should she have voted out Savage?  In hindsight I'd say sure.  I'm not saying her move on Woo was the best move, even the best move available to her.  It's a move I find very difficult to evaluate, myself, because Abi and who knows.

 

What Joe needs (and this week, at least, it is certainly Joe to whom she was making her pitch) is chaos, if he's to Survive as the game name dictates.  Like Tony did, he has to keep everyone off-balance with lots of dynamic flipping.  Tony could feel confident, and make moves that others might not make, because he had idols out the wazoo--but Joe has in fact been immune the entire game so far.  He should be playing harder.  Would it be easy for him to make it to the end that way?  I'll let Ciera answer that:

 

Edited November 17, 2015 by KimberStormer

[LadyChatts]

Somehow I think Joe's best chance at longevity in this game left when Savage did.  He was his closest ally, swore on his kids he'd never write his name down (of course there's been many swearing on kids/spouses/dead relatives that people went back on) but I don't believe that would have been the case here.  Anyway, Joe might have been able to wrangle enough votes to take control of the game while Savage was there.  It's hard to say.  I'll be curious when Ciera is allowed to do the press circuit what she has to say.  At any rate, I'm glad she's not just rolling over and giving up.  

[peachmangosteen]

But objective truth also exists.

 

Sure, but what you're saying is actually opinion. That's pretty obvious since there's a least 3 or 4 people here who don't see what you see with regards to Ciera, whereas 3 or 4 others do see what you see. An objective fact would be say a direct quote of Ciera, but how you see her delivery of it or her intention is an opinion/interpretation until or unless we hear her say what she meant.

[Oscirus]

How do you figure?  The 'little women' would have Kass and the majority alliance would have Woo, so the numbers wouldn't be much different.  Oh, you think voting out Woo put the target on the little women to begin with?  I'm not sure but it's hard to conclude Kass and Ciera would be running things over this brain trust of Jeremy's.

 

Because it's an easy Kelly pick up after that, that's five people. Meeting up with Kelley and Keith at the merge gives them seven meaning that scene at the merge where Kass is trying to pick up Tasha doesn't happen.  If anything, they'd probably have an easy eight since Joe would have no choice but to go with the numbers.

[Oscirus]

Kelly's only connection to the meat shield alliance was through Andrew. She'd have no choice but to go with Kass, Ciera and crew after that. Spencer was also with them at that point and only jumped  to the other side once it was apparent that the other side had numbers. Which they wouldn't In this case.

[Zuleikha]

Wigles was on new Bayon with Spencer, Jeremy, Stephen, and Kimmi. It's impossible to know how Wigles would have gone if Savage was booted instead of Woo, especially if Wigles wasn't pulled into the vote. Maybe she would have stuck with the ladies or maybe she would have gotten pulled in by Jeremy/Stephen/Kimmi. It probably would have depended on who approached her when and with how many other solid numbers. I certainly think it's possible Ciera et al would have been able to win at merge with Savage gone, but I don't think it's a sure thing.

 

I think it's likely if Ciera/Kass could see the future and know about the early merge that they would have pushed harder with either Abi or Wigles to get Savage out. I agree that with the benefit of hindsight that was a costly mistake (although since we weren't there, it's hard to know how much of an option Savage really was at that point). But they couldn't see the future, and at the time, I think it was reasonable to go for Woo then with the plan of getting Savage at the next FTC.

 

But of what use is Joe to them, once they are up by, say, two or three?  He beats everyone at FTC.  Their incentive is to bounce him as soon as he has outlived his usefulness to them, which seems to me damn fast.

Right now, Joe knows he has Stephen gunning for him as soon as Joe loses immunity. If Joe is able to go with the women, he has a some breathing room. He lost last time around this time, so he knows he can't count on an immunity run lasting forever.

 

Also, if he can use the women to get to a position that's something like Keith/Ciera/Abi/Kelley/Wigles, IMHO, he's in a better position to immunity run to the end than if he's in a similar position with say Kimmi/Jeremy/Tasha/Spencer/Keith or Wigles (I'm putting Keith/Wigles there instead of Stephen because the editing is suggesting that it's either Stephen or Joe continuing on with the main alliance but not both). Joe knows that no one in this game wants to sit next to him at FTC (although I think he'll lose if he does a straight up IC run to get there), so he needs to be setting up for that final run.

[LadyChatts]

I question why Savage needed to offer Ciera as a pawn in the first place.  He obviously thought he had the votes to get rid of Spencer, why not just leave it that.  Maybe it would have made the difference between Woo getting voted off and Spencer staying.  Sometimes people overthink these boots more than they need to.  Ciera was at the bottom of the old old Bayon.  She wasn't part of the alpha suballiance.  I doubt she was going to get Stephen, Kimmi, or Keith siding with her at the merge with any leftover Ta'Keo members.  Either way, Woo going or not, she was at the bottom.  I think Spencer could be more of a wild card than Woo.  Woo values loyalty, Spencer may jump ship if he sees either the numbers or a better option.

[Zuleikha]

But wouldn't that take 10 straight immunity wins, a shut-out and double the current record?  Or 11 if it's a final two?  I think they'd be hard pressed to not give the win to someone who pulled that off!

Just depends on what the jury values/who Joe is sitting next to. Personally, I wouldn't reward someone for an IC run alone because that's only 2/3 of the game. I think Mike only won last season because no one respected Will's game and no one liked Carolyn. I expect that someone like Savage would vote for Joe on the basis of the IC run, but I would think Kass and Stephen would vote for people like Jeremy and Kelley over Joe. 

 

(also, this is getting way off topic for Ciera and the conversation should probably continue in Joe's thread)

[Hera]

I question why Savage needed to offer Ciera as a pawn in the first place.  He obviously thought he had the votes to get rid of Spencer, why not just leave it that.

I wondered the same thing at the time. Unless he was worried Spencer had an idol (in which case, his side had the votes to split), there was no reason to throw out anyone's name as a decoy.

 

Does anyone know where Ciera thought Kelly Wiglesworth was in all of this? If she and Kass had Wiglesworth on side, then it wouldn't have mattered what Abi, Woo, or Andrew wanted.

[Nashville]

Just depends on what the jury values/who Joe is sitting next to. Personally, I wouldn't reward someone for an IC run alone because that's only 2/3 of the game.

 

IF they won EVERY IMMUNITY CHALLENGE OF AN ENTIRE SEASON, I sure as hell would. 

That's a phenomenal strategy, if you can pull it off.  Name any other strategy which is 100% guaranteed to take you to F2.

Plus, it's also kinda record-breaking.

[ByaNose]

Exactly, what is the record now? 5? 6? Holloway? Ozzy? Deitz? Spradlin? I can't remember what the record is or who has won the most straight individual immunities. To win 10 straight individual immunities is possible but highly improbable. Of course, this is me typing this as I sit in my barca lounger, drinking a beer, eating pizza & watching Survivor on my 65 inch telelvison. So, what the heck do I know. LOL!!!

[pennben]

The single season record is 5, which Mike tied last season.  I know Terry had five as well, I think Colby too.  Not sure who else.

[pennben]

Thank you Dalton Ross.  From his recap at EW....

 

 

I have to admit, I’m pretty over Kelley and Ciera constantly talking about how nobody has been playing all season long and how they want “people to finally get this game started.” Just because people have not been voting with you does not mean they have not been playing. After all, hasn’t Fishbach been telling us all season how this is the craziest, most sub-alliance filled installment in history? I get why Kelley and Ciera have made this their narrative because they have been trying to get someone to flip, but it gets tiresome to hear it on continuous loop.

 

Honestly.

[Nashville]

Thank you Dalton Ross.  From his recap at EW....

 

I have to admit, I’m pretty over Kelley and Ciera constantly talking about how nobody has been playing all season long and how they want “people to finally get this game started.” Just because people have not been voting with you does not mean they have not been playing. After all, hasn’t Fishbach been telling us all season how this is the craziest, most sub-alliance filled installment in history? I get why Kelley and Ciera have made this their narrative because they have been trying to get someone to flip, but it gets tiresome to hear it on continuous loop.

 

Honestly.

Swear to god.

News flash, Ciera.

Not playing with you =/= Not playing.

[kikaha]

Dalton said, "I get why Kelley and Ciera have made this their narrative because they have been trying to get someone to flip..."

 

Ciera said the same thing in her confessional.  So it's not just game play on her part.  She truly believes it. 

[ProfCrash]

While I agree with that sentiment, I also think that Kelly, Kimmi, Keith, and Spencer are not in as good as they think they are and were foolish to simply accept that fate. They have to know that only two or three people make it to the finals and that they are not going to all make it. By accepting the pecking order established by other folks, they were essentially accepting going out in the middle. That is simply bad game play. They have three people that they could work with to improve their position and their resumes.

[Zuleikha]

We've had this discussion ad nauseum at this point. I am just not seeing this crazy, sub-alliance filled installment that Ross and Fishbach have been claiming. NOW we've seen a shake up, now that Fishbach/Jeremy/Spencer made a vote without Tasha/Kimmi. However, that's related to Stephen's not entirely rational anti-Joe feelings and (to give him credit) recognition that he has to do something more than follow Jeremy. That's not the people at the bottom of the Brolliance actively scheming against the top. That's the people Ciera/Kelley already acknowledged were playing are still playing and now the people at the bottom may have lost any chance at changing things up (unless Tasha/Kimmi being left out in the cold creates another opening).

[Oholibamah]

Playing =/= playing well, or playing to win.

And that is the point they're "trying to make on continuous loop".