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S31: Spoilers


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The infamous Steve Helling is doing a podcast with Max Dawson right now, being his usual gossipy self. He might or might not be giving something away. I personally think so but I might be biased :-)

Not all of us get or listen to podcasts.  So what is he saying?

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If 'the first' is the biggest merge it is lame.  He was talking to Dalton which is not done ahead of time as far as I know.  He probably gets the episodr early so he can have his chat with Jeff and post it the day after.  We saw in the preview they were merging.  I used to like Probst and still do but his stock is falling.  

 

Considering this is Jeff, I wouldn't be surprised if that's all it is.  And that he probably believes it is a big deal.  I am disappointed that, so far, it hasn't been too unpredictable.  Yeah, there was a tribe swap at 18, a second tribe swap at 14, and idols hidden at the challenges (which to me is the most exciting change up so far).  But nothing really that hasn't been another day in Survivor.  And the first tribe swap, sending 6 people to Angkor, was a disaster.  Ta'Keo became the new Escemeca and won everything.  I'm really hoping that the twist with the idols being different isn't a complete dud, and someone finds out and crafts a fake one.  I'd like to see someone play a fake idol on themselves and have it work.

 

ETA: Episode 8 title is "You Call, We'll Haul".  That...sounds like it might be an interesting episode.

Edited by LadyChatts
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Considering this is Jeff, I wouldn't be surprised if that's all it is.  And that he probably believes it is a big deal.  I am disappointed that, so far, it hasn't been too unpredictable.  Yeah, there was a tribe swap at 18, a second tribe swap at 14, and idols hidden at the challenges (which to me is the most exciting change up so far).  But nothing really that hasn't been another day in Survivor.  And the first tribe swap, sending 6 people to Angkor, was a disaster.  Ta'Keo became the new Escemeca and won everything.  I'm really hoping that the twist with the idols being different isn't a complete dud, and someone finds out and crafts a fake one.  I'd like to see someone play a fake idol on themselves and have it work.

 

ETA: Episode 8 title is "You Call, We'll Haul".  That...sounds like it might be an interesting episode.

Regarding the looking fake idol thing. I think it would be better if some of the idols were in fact fake. It makes it rely more on chance then just automatic safety. I mean things like Mike last time was just too much the whole world knew he wasn't going home because of that idol including the people playing. Kind of takes the surprise away when its too exposed.

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hey so watching this preview at the 21 second mark behind ciera you can see joe with the immunity necklace on

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/5212E514-BFE8-2201-78AD-BA487BBBE374/survivor-play-to-win-preview-/

Nice catch!  Yeah, they not only gave that away, but even if someone didn't catch it, they gave away people who didn't win it.  Sounds like a heated TC.  Did it look like Tasha was arguing with Savage?  She turned around and looked angry, but that looks like who was behind her.  I guess they really wanted to show case this dysfunction that they didn't care if they gave anything away.

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Nice catch!  Yeah, they not only gave that away, but even if someone didn't catch it, they gave away people who didn't win it.  Sounds like a heated TC.  Did it look like Tasha was arguing with Savage?  She turned around and looked angry, but that looks like who was behind her.  I guess they really wanted to show case this dysfunction that they didn't care if they gave anything away.

Well this is going to be far from an easy Kass boot then. Not saying Kass still doesn't go but theres definitely more tension around than Kass. Joe wins immunity good job CBS interns.

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Well this is going to be far from an easy Kass boot then. Not saying Kass still doesn't go but theres definitely more tension around than Kass. Joe wins immunity good job CBS interns.

 

I'm skeptical if it is a Kass boot.  I believe it, but I won't be surprised if its wrong.  My feeling is it will be a close vote, and someone flips or maybe Kass even gets idoled out.  I know the first few merge boots aren't concrete but are close to accurate.  There seemed to be quite a bit of Stephen in that promo, and we know he wasn't happy with his alliance not wanting to take Joe out while they could.  I wonder if Stephen flips to get Kass out and prove loyalty to an alliance willing to listen to him (or probably let him be their own shield), but then if Joe wins the second II Stephen may get sacrificed if he overstrategized a Joe boot then tries overstrategizing someone else's ouster.

 

I knew that Jeff's big hype was only going to be a 13 person merge and nothing else.  Snooze.

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Regarding that boot list, where it says, "Jeremy (w)," I'm disappointed. Not because Jeremy might win, but because I always thought the winner was unknown until the final reveal. Maybe Jeffy would dip into the urn to rearrange the votes before the reveal (to maximize tension), but no one else knew.

 

At least, that's what I thought. I can definitely see why it wouldn't fly: you can't really plan/edit a season if you don't know. 

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Bringing the boot list forward.  The creator is not sure of the exact order after the merge but says final 6 are correct.   

 

Vytas

Shirin

PeihGee

Jeff

Monica

Terry (evac)

Woo

Jury (close to order)

Kass

Stephen

Kelly

Ciera

Andrew

Joe

Keith

Abi (fv)

Kimmi (fv)

Kelley (fv)

Final 3

Tasha

Spencer

Jeremy (w)

 

Bringing this forward again. 

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Regarding that boot list, where it says, "Jeremy (w)," I'm disappointed. Not because Jeremy might win, but because I always thought the winner was unknown until the final reveal. Maybe Jeffy would dip into the urn to rearrange the votes before the reveal (to maximize tension), but no one else knew.

 

At least, that's what I thought. I can definitely see why it wouldn't fly: you can't really plan/edit a season if you don't know. 

 

Most of the time we can guess who wins and they all compare notes or know by their time in Ponderosa who will vote for who.  

 

I will be surprised if it is not Kass.   It takes a few days to settle in and get alliances straight, she is an easy first boot.  She's trouble, a flip risk and not aligned with anyone strongly.  

Edited by wings707
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Regarding that boot list, where it says, "Jeremy (w)," I'm disappointed. Not because Jeremy might win, but because I always thought the winner was unknown until the final reveal. Maybe Jeffy would dip into the urn to rearrange the votes before the reveal (to maximize tension), but no one else knew.
If the ultimate source really is a jury member, it may have been very obvious based on Ponderosa discussions and the final Tribal Council.

 

I believe the boot list in this case and it will be Kass. And it will be delicious. Maybe even glorious.
I feel like it's going to be Kass (which makes me sad... I love her), but the boot list is supposed to be just a rough order until we get to the family visits. So if Kass doesn't go, that doesn't mean that the boot list is wrong. Just that we're in the part of the game where we only have a general guide of who's going and when, but not a precise boot for each episode.
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If it is Kass, I wonder if it doesn't ultimately backfire on Spencer and Tasha. Kass appears very friendly with all the potential jurors on Twitter. If she's the first juror, she gets to set the tone at Ponderosa. We know that Ponderosa has a huge impact on the outcome of the final vote. She could easily dismantle Spencer or Tasha's game while on the jury. You never want your bitter rival to be the first person on the jury.

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They may assume Kass is going to be the last pre-jury boot and won't have to worry about stabbing her in the back (if that's the case) or causing a stink with her.  Given the episode description, it appears that Kass and Spencer do go at it.  So he may think he can give her the boot, even though she helped save him last week, and that'll be the end of it.  It would actually be better if Kass got voted off, and Jeff didn't say anything until the next TC that they were bringing in the first juror.  I would just like to see the looks on everyone's faces, especially if they did attack Kass or backstab her.  It would make sense for the edit Kass suddenly got, talking about returning to Chaos Kass, sparing her biggest rival, then failing flat because she's deemed a flip flopper.  Savage might call her out and say she was supposed to vote Woo, so she's at it again.  A lot of signs point to Kass leaving, and I don't think we are getting the Chaos Kass edit because she is going to live up to her former reputation.  We are suddenly getting it because she's on the way out.  This would further lead to the spoiler that Jeremy wins over Spencer and Tasha. 

 

I'm surprised Ciera would be considered for the boot, unless she plays too hard, too strong.  In addition, I won't be surprised if Stephen rats out Joe for wanting to keep Kelley around over Kimmi and uses that as a wedge between alliances.  That's why I'm wondering if Joe wins immunity, perhaps Stephen tries turning the vote around on Kelley, she plays her idol, and someone else gets the boot as a result.  Would go along with the edit Stephen has got that he can't do anything right.  Then there's Kimmi.  Monica says she regretted voting her off, and then there's the FB messenger spoiler.  I can buy that Monica was bitter and probably wanted to get digs in, whether Kimmi was really sorry and paid for it or not.  But the FB messenger spoiler has, so far, been accurate.  This would have Kimmi out before the family visit.

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I feel like it's going to be Kass (which makes me sad... I love her), but the boot list is supposed to be just a rough order until we get to the family visits. So if Kass doesn't go, that doesn't mean that the boot list is wrong. Just that we're in the part of the game where we only have a general guide of who's going and when, but not a precise boot for each episode.

 

 

 

That's my philosophy. Dont throw out the baby with the bathwater if it's not exact.

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I feel like it's going to be Kass (which makes me sad... I love her), but the boot list is supposed to be just a rough order until we get to the family visits. So if Kass doesn't go, that doesn't mean that the boot list is wrong. Just that we're in the part of the game where we only have a general guide of who's going and when, but not a precise boot for each episode.

 

Depends on the boot. Eliminating the family visits and the f3, we have seven possible choices ( six if you believe the keith spoiler).

 

I will be surprised if it is not Kass.   It takes a few days to settle in and get alliances straight, she is an easy first boot.  She's trouble, a flip risk and not aligned with anyone strongly.

 

Not that easy. She's aligned with the takeo five and I'm pretty sure she's tight with Ciera.

 

That being said, after reading the press release, Kass is the easy pick for a boot this episode.

 

 

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Regarding that boot list, where it says, "Jeremy (w)," I'm disappointed. Not because Jeremy might win, but because I always thought the winner was unknown until the final reveal. Maybe Jeffy would dip into the urn to rearrange the votes before the reveal (to maximize tension), but no one else knew.

 

At least, that's what I thought. I can definitely see why it wouldn't fly: you can't really plan/edit a season if you don't know.

Returning players know each other. There are regular Survivor reunions, parties, get-togethers, etc. They talk about stuff amongst themselves, and sometimes it leaks out. I think that's why it's easier to figure out who goes out when, if it's a returning player season.

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Depends on the boot. Eliminating the family visits and the f3, we have seven possible choices ( six if you believe the keith spoiler).

 

Not that easy. She's aligned with the takeo five and I'm pretty sure she's tight with Ciera.

 

That being said, after reading the press release, Kass is the easy pick for a boot this episode.

For Pressic I counted 6 Kass, 5 Ciera, 5 Abi. What did you guys get?

 

I would say a wrong boot here isn't as damaging unless its one of the final 6. If we get an abi boot here then I would definitely question the list. 

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Returning players know each other. There are regular Survivor reunions, parties, get-togethers, etc. They talk about stuff amongst themselves, and sometimes it leaks out. I think that's why it's easier to figure out who goes out when, if it's a returning player season.

 

I actually expected there to be way more leaks this season, and some way sooner than what we got.  What kills me is most of the spoilers have come from CBS, not the players. 

 

What I don't understand about this list is how they can be correct with the pre-merge order, say the final 3 and 6 are right, but aren't sure on the rest of the order.  How would they not know that?  TBH, I won't be surprised if one of the rumored final 6 is out earlier than expected, but the remaining final 5 are correct.  However, the way the editing is going, I can see how this list shapes up. 

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I actually expected there to be way more leaks this season, and some way sooner than what we got.  What kills me is most of the spoilers have come from CBS, not the players. 

 

What I don't understand about this list is how they can be correct with the pre-merge order, say the final 3 and 6 are right, but aren't sure on the rest of the order.  How would they not know that?  TBH, I won't be surprised if one of the rumored final 6 is out earlier than expected, but the remaining final 5 are correct.  However, the way the editing is going, I can see how this list shapes up. 

What usually winds up happening is someone gets legit info, but then makes up the rest as they go along. It looks like they are correct because some parts are correct but they get carried away and try to make it like they are the know it all when they only knew minimal info. Its still possible the list is right, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went wrong at some point for these reasons.

 

1. This list again has the weight list 5 as the top 5 of Jeremy, Spencer, Tasha, Kelley, Kimmi. These are the exact same 5 being thrown around by weight loss pictures for months now. It would be pretty bizarre that the only ones that look like they lost crazy weight are the top 5. You also have Keith with a good amount of weight loss in 7th. So 6 of the final 7 have crazy weight loss? Theres always someone that makes it far, but loses barely anything.

2. The kimmi Facebook spoiler which has not been wrong yet.

3. It would still be bizarre to have 3 gamers and no goats all. I guess One World was the last time this happened?

Edited by anthonyd46
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It would still be bizarre to have 3 gamers and no goats all. I guess One World was the last time this happened?
Gamers can also be goats. Think of Russell in HvV. There's a lot of time for Spencer or Tasha to piss off other players with how they get to that f3. Also, the way Spencer is currently playing, he may not end up perceived as a gamer. Right now, he's still in the game because Kass and Ciera decided to save him for their own reasons. Spencer was totally going to be blindsided. It's possible that the remaining Ta Keo members aren't going to be targeted because Bayon is too busy fighting each other until very close to the end. Spencer may end up perceived as an under-the-radar player who was brought to the end. 

 

Also, while I have loads of respect for Tasha and think she's playing an amazing game so far, I won't be surprised if she ends up considered a goat due to likability. Women who play hard just have a harder time being liked and respected for it, and we know Tasha wasn't perceived well in Cagayan by her tribemates. Most of the people on jury will have no idea how well Tasha played during her time on Angkor, and does anyone really think Savage is going to be talking Tasha up in Ponderosa? (especially if Tasha ends up connected to his boot?) 

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According to a podcaster who is friends with Spence, the sequences of the Spence scenes were out of order. If Spence is a F3 loser, it looks like the reaason why he loses is bc he was never in position to "steer the game" as Tony did with Cagayan.

 

 

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Speaking of podcasts, what was said in the last one you listened to a few days ago?  As I'd said, not all of us get podcasts, so something must've been pretty exciting for you to listen to it.

 

 

It was NOT exciting. I dont watch TV. I listen to pods instead.

 

Most of it was coy shit not worth mentioning. Two things.

 

1. He reminds that his interview with probst was done AFTER the season and looking back, u could tell who was premerge from his comments.

 

2. There is a TC coming up  that has so many components to it that nobody has the full facts. (I am thinking a Jeff Kent or Tyson 2.0- type TC but who knows.)

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I'm just curious what happens that Abi makes it to the F6 and doesn't get taken to the F3. My best guess is that she gets idoled out by Kelley or Jeremy, specifically to cut off Tasha/Spencer from taking the potential goat. I just can't imagine those two, being on a season where Woo lost by taking Tony, would be stupid enough to take Jeremy. So I think Jeremy has to go a late immunity run to make the finals. 

 

 

his list again has the weight list 5 as the top 5 of Jeremy, Spencer, Tasha, Kelley, Kimmi. These are the exact same 5 being thrown around by weight loss pictures for months now. It would be pretty bizarre that the only ones that look like they lost crazy weight are the top 5.

 

From what I understand, the worst of the rain storms come in the late game portion. So I imagine that would put a huge damper on food collection and could explain why the late gamers lose a drastic amount of weight compared to the early jurors. And I actually didn't think Jeremy looked that bad in that post-game picture with Terry. 

Edited by loki567
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1. This list again has the weight list 5 as the top 5 of Jeremy, Spencer, Tasha, Kelley, Kimmi. These are the exact same 5 being thrown around by weight loss pictures for months now. It would be pretty bizarre that the only ones that look like they lost crazy weight are the top 5. You also have Keith with a good amount of weight loss in 7th. So 6 of the final 7 have crazy weight loss? Theres always someone that makes it far, but loses barely anything

 

Abby's supposedly sixth and she barely looks like she lost anything..

 

3. It would still be bizarre to have 3 gamers and no goats all. I guess One World was the last time this happened?

 

 

Unless he makes a huge turnaround post merge, I can easily see how Spencer's the goat.

 

Another thing of interest sneak peek: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VF35ukcR6TY

 

According to the above YouTube, at the current time Abi and Spencer are (unknowingly) aligned with the Takeo five giving Takeo the needed seven majority.

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So I wonder if the Kass boot will be wrong this week.  It said 'close to order' and there's been a lot of focus on Stephen and his vision for the game.  With what we saw in the first promo, it sounds like he might be trying to make a big move this week.  I'm curious what is comment about 'things are changing in the game and history of Survivor' at TC was in reference to.  Tooting his own horn on something or does Jeff let it out that the first merge boot is also the first juror, or that all HII are different looking?

 

It's possible someone flips, if Kass is the boot.  I think Abi and Spencer are not the most solid choices to keep in an alliance.  Abi has flip flopped numerous times in this game, and Spencer may not want to go the distance with Kass.  Plus, if they feel that they are at the bottom of the 7, they may jump while they can.  I will die if Keith does a 'stick to the plan' this week that causes that.  Kelley's in with the Ta'Keo five, so I don't see her using her idol and that's how Kass goes.  And I can't see the target on Jeremy's back this week.

 

If it wasn't Kass this week, my bet is Savage, Stephen, or Abi.

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Stephen's big move is to get rid of Joe. Since Joe won IC, Stephen can hardly make his move this wk.

 

I wonder if Stephen tries to target Jeremy instead.  Alpha male, challenge threat, didn't want to go along with his plan to oust Joe last week.  If that boot list is close to order, and Stephen is supposed to go after Kass, maybe he is the one that ends up getting booted this week.  Could be Jeremy plays his idol or Stephen gets blindsided.  I still think he ends up overplaying his hand and people aren't going to either trust him or want to go along with his proposed target.

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I wonder if Stephen tries to target Jeremy instead.  Alpha male, challenge threat, didn't want to go along with his plan to oust Joe last week.  If that boot list is close to order, and Stephen is supposed to go after Kass, maybe he is the one that ends up getting booted this week.  Could be Jeremy plays his idol or Stephen gets blindsided.  I still think he ends up overplaying his hand and people aren't going to either trust him or want to go along with his proposed target.

 

First jurors tend to be people who have gotten a rather complex, positive edit. I could see it being either Stephen or Kass going home, as both of them have gotten enough screen time to tell their "story". I could also see it being Savage. 

Edited by bdestroyer88
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The one reason I'm thinking it will be Kass is in the description it says "history repeats itself for two feuding castaways."  I don't know who else that would be besides Kass/Spencer.  I don't know who else would have history with each other, and they gave us the set up for Kass/Spencer.  It could be Kass is safe, but she and Spencer are at odds.  But with the discussion going on in Spencer's thread, about how during Cagayan Kass kept him over J'Tia and then couldn't shake him after the merge, and now may suffer a similar fate keeping him over Woo, maybe that is foreshadowing to a Kass boot.  Except this time Spencer outlasts Kass in the end.

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The one reason I'm thinking it will be Kass is in the description it says "history repeats itself for two feuding castaways."  I don't know who else that would be besides Kass/Spencer.  I don't know who else would have history with each other, and they gave us the set up for Kass/Spencer.  It could be Kass is safe, but she and Spencer are at odds.  But with the discussion going on in Spencer's thread, about how during Cagayan Kass kept him over J'Tia and then couldn't shake him after the merge, and now may suffer a similar fate keeping him over Woo, maybe that is foreshadowing to a Kass boot.  Except this time Spencer outlasts Kass in the end.

It could be Kass vs. Tasha. If you see the new preview, Tasha says that while they brains had some good history, they also had some bad history. I think that definitely foreshadows a Kass vs. Tasha showdown later in the episode. 

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bdestroyer88, on 03 Nov 2015 - 1:27 PM, said:

First jurors tend to be people who have gotten a rather complex, positive edit.

Tend to be, but aren't always.  Rocky from Fiji had only the worst possible edit.  Jaime from the next season, China, was positive up until her boot episode, when she got a slightly negative, dumb edit.  Marcus from Gabon got a positive one until his boot episode, when he was made to look like the arrogant dick he really was.  Coach got a buffoon edit in Heroes vs. Villains.  Jim got a greatly negative edit in South Pacific.  Michael was borderline invisibile until his boot episode in Caramoan.  Aras was kind of so-so in Blood vs. Water.  Josh actually started out positive, but grew negative in San Juan del Sur.

 

So no, the first juror isn't always positive.  Complex, yes, always.  Positive, no, not always.

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It could be Kass vs. Tasha. If you see the new preview, Tasha says that while they brains had some good history, they also had some bad history. I think that definitely foreshadows a Kass vs. Tasha showdown later in the episode. 

 

I figure it has to be 2 of the Cagayan 3.  There isn't even anyone this season that would really fit that description, unless it is Abi vs whoever.  But most of the people Abi quarreled with have been voted off at this point.  Maybe the history isn't even the castaways themselves having history together; rather, maybe 2 castaways are feuding but it goes back to similar events in their respective seasons.  Tasha looked angry in that one promo, and whoever it was aimed at was sitting behind her (it looked like she had been talking to Andrew).

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s31/vc_s31_web_promo_ep7/vc_s31_web_promo_ep7_0035.jpg

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I figure it has to be 2 of the Cagayan 3.  There isn't even anyone this season that would really fit that description, unless it is Abi vs whoever.  But most of the people Abi quarreled with have been voted off at this point.  Maybe the history isn't even the castaways themselves having history together; rather, maybe 2 castaways are feuding but it goes back to similar events in their respective seasons.  Tasha looked angry in that one promo, and whoever it was aimed at was sitting behind her (it looked like she had been talking to Andrew).

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s31/vc_s31_web_promo_ep7/vc_s31_web_promo_ep7_0035.jpg

Maybe it's the Savage vs. Stephen rivalry coming back into the spotlight? Who knows, but my bet is that it's Tasha vs. Kass.

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I would like to think that maybe they'd actually be creative and have it not be so obvious.  But considering everything else they've given away (including the gem that Joe wins immunity!), it probably is either the Cagayan 3 or the SJDS 3.  And if it were anyone but Jeremy/Kelley/Keith representing their season, then I might go with them.  I don't remember them having any sort of issues or dysfunction to the level Tasha/Kass/Spencer had with each other (or I guess I should say what those 2 had with Kass).

Edited by LadyChatts
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Jeff Varner tweeted he's excited about the next episode, and he's Team Kass. He mentioned in one of his exit interviews that Kass does something amazing. If she's going out, she's not going without a fight.

1) It's Kass. Of course she's not going down without a fight.

 

2) It probably has something to do with Tasha, at least according to the preview. Varner HATES Tasha so anything that Kass does to her is amazing to him. 

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Well, that's intriguing.  I wouldn't ever count Kass out!  I wonder if we're in for a surprise and someone speculated to go far ends up getting booted thanks to Kass.  Probst seemed bewildered in the promo (of course we know how he plays it up).  If there is something complex TC with a bunch of different elements happening this season, I wonder if this is it.

 

Has me curious!  Glad we are finally getting to the individual portion of the game.

 

ETA: Well, it better be something good other than Kass gets someone Varner hates ousted.  Also, he wasn't fond of Savage, so it is possible Kass turns the target on him as well.  I still wouldn't rule out that Kass is not the first merge boot and it is Stephen, Savage, or maybe Abi.  Perhaps Kass turns on her Ta'Keo 5 alliance?

Edited by LadyChatts
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Well, that's intriguing.  I wouldn't ever count Kass out!  I wonder if we're in for a surprise and someone speculated to go far ends up getting booted thanks to Kass.  Probst seemed bewildered in the promo (of course we know how he plays it up).  If there is something complex TC with a bunch of different elements happening this season, I wonder if this is it.

 

Has me curious!  Glad we are finally getting to the individual portion of the game.

 

ETA: Well, it better be something good other than Kass gets someone Varner hates ousted.  Also, he wasn't fond of Savage, so it is possible Kass turns the target on him as well.  I still wouldn't rule out that Kass is not the first merge boot and it is Stephen, Savage, or maybe Abi.  Perhaps Kass turns on her Ta'Keo 5 alliance?

Kass' only alliance is the Ta Keo 5. She literally has no where else to go. There's no way she turns on that alliance, it's her only lifeline. 

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