S31: Spoilers

[LadyChatts]

One thing to keep in mind is that these are pre-game interviews from Jeff.  PG seems like she does have a life outside of Survivor (compared to some people), so I can believe she might have fallen out or isn't as tight with the Survivor community as she said in her interview.  But, that also could potentially be a bluff.  Jeff's been wrong in his cast assessments before, so I'm hoping he's wrong this time.  PG I was iffy even getting on the season but I was super excited she made it.  Really would love to see the pre HvsV crowd go far, but I think the post group from that season is much tighter and more likely to work together.

[anthonyd46]

 

This confirms one gate and the only thing after the gate is light a burning rope. 

[LadyChatts]

Can not wait!  After reading pre-game interviews (and wondering why I thought voting for some of these people was better than the alternative), I really hope Vytas gets the boot first.  I hope that SM stuff wasn't a red herring and he winds up going deep into the game, because I can't stand him from the interviews alone.

[anthonyd46]

I assume the boot is vytas unless bayon suffers some insane collapse running from the gate to the rope they need to burn?

[LadyChatts]

In that screen shot that originally showed Tasha/Abi at the swap, there's a man standing behind them and speculation as to whether that is Vytas or not (I think it could be Vytas or Stephen).  If Vytas makes it to the swap and gets screwed by it, that might add up to his sudden presence on SM on day 9 of the game.  I'm still thinking he's 1st or 2nd at least, but maybe he does make it through.  For Ta'Keo, I'm still sticking with Vytas or PG as the first boot.  From what we know, I think the only other person it could be is Shirin from that tribe.  Given what I believe is a strong pre-game alliance for her, I don't see that happening.

 

On Bayon, I just can't believe it is anyone other than Kass.  Monica or Ciera would be the other two picks for me.  But I'm still saying Kass.  It's hard to say whether Bayon pulls through or not.  Since the promos make it look like Ta'Keo is behind, I'm thinking that could be creative editing and they pull through.

[BK1978]

I really hate the fact that for the last few seasons we have not had any really hardcore spoilers.  I love knowing who the winner is in advance because then I can pay more attention to how they got to where they got. 

[anthonyd46]

I really hate the fact that for the last few seasons we have not had any really hardcore spoilers.  I love knowing who the winner is in advance because then I can pay more attention to how they got to where they got. 

We have two Terry and Vytas don't win but thats about it.

[ProfCrash]

I am not sure that Terry's departure is even a spoiler. There has been pretty active twitter posting about his son. I suppose there have not been any stories about his leaving early to be with his son so it is still a spoiler but it strikes me as pretty obvious.

[LadyChatts]

I like knowing spoilers because it helps my anxiety when watching ;)  Seriously, last season was depressing, thinking something finally might happen, Sierra might finally turn on her blues, an all girl alliance would form, Rodney would blindside the blues...and then nothing.  Very routine.  Very boring.  And some of the more boring and least likable people there in the end.  I'm already sort of not looking forward to it this season if it is true that, with the exception of Kimmi, it's all Cagayan/SJDS people in the end.  Ultimately, I just hope there's a lot of good game play this season, bitterness not deciding the final vote, and one alliance calling the shots and nothing exciting happening.  Hoping the idol twist also doesn't make people afraid to make moves because they are unsure.

[anthonyd46]

http://www.people.com/article/jeff-probst-survivor-cambodia-second-chance-cast-assessment

 

This is jeffs post show assessment. 

 

Really doesn't sound good for Vytas , PG, Monica or Kass. Sounds good for Jeff, Tasha, Kimmi, Keith. 

Edited September 23, 2015 by anthonyd46

[LadyChatts]

I like how that article touches on Jeff having to hype the season even if it doesn't deliver.

 

Those 4 I expected to be pre-merge, and the other 4 have evidence to back them up doing well.  Right now, I'm thinking the pre-merge group is going to be Vytas, Terry, Woo, Kass, Monica, PG, and either Abi, Kelly Wigles, or Stephen.  I do think, if they make it, Andrew and Abi will be early merge boots.

[anthonyd46]

I like how that article touches on Jeff having to hype the season even if it doesn't deliver.

 

Those 4 I expected to be pre-merge, and the other 4 have evidence to back them up doing well.  Right now, I'm thinking the pre-merge group is going to be Vytas, Terry, Woo, Kass, Monica, PG, and either Abi, Kelly Wigles, or Stephen.  I do think, if they make it, Andrew and Abi will be early merge boots.

I agree with that. Looks like the cbs instagram has slipped something: (green ta keo bottle at bayon camp)

 

Edited September 23, 2015 by anthonyd46

[LadyChatts]

I didn't realize they took their own canteens during a tribe swap.  We know a tribe swap happens at 18, so assuming this from the swap, we at least can narrow down who the first boot is even further.  I didn't expect Stephen or Jeremy to go first anyway.  Monica I wouldn't have been surprised, but I think she was a long shot to be the first boot from her tribe.  A poster at Sucks believes some of the promo shots are evidence that Monica lasts past the first boot, since it appears she's at a challenges but doesn't look like it is the first one.

[anthonyd46]

I didn't realize they took their own canteens during a tribe swap.  We know a tribe swap happens at 18, so assuming this from the swap, we at least can narrow down who the first boot is even further.  I didn't expect Stephen or Jeremy to go first anyway.  Monica I wouldn't have been surprised, but I think she was a long shot to be the first boot from her tribe.  A poster at Sucks believes some of the promo shots are evidence that Monica lasts past the first boot, since it appears she's at a challenges but doesn't look like it is the first one.

 

The other possibility is its a kidnapping, but that hasn't been done since Samoa so it would be quite a gap between that and this one. 

[anthonyd46]

Well the blurry guy isn't vytas. I guess Bayon must lose immunity in episode 2, because with Abi acting that crazy don't see how she survives another Ta Keo TC.

 

Interesting article:

 

http://parade.com/425284/joshwigler/survivor-premiere-heres-what-you-didnt-see-at-the-first-tribal-council/2/

Edited September 24, 2015 by anthonyd46

[wonald]

Abi is in the Shitrin/Went/Spence alliance. Wigles would prob be next out if Takeo lost again.

Edited September 24, 2015 by wonald

[LadyChatts]

I will say, I was a little disappointed that Vytas got booted, because I knew he had to be one of the first 3 to go.  If he could at least get through tonight, I'd know that one of my favorites on that tribe would be at least one episode safer.  Now I'm worried for some of my favorites that don't have any sort of solid evidence backing up how well they do.

 

Given what we saw of PG tonight, I do not believe she is long for this game.  Only a tribe swap may help her.  If Bayon lost the next challenge, that makes even more sense that they do a swap at 18.  The tribes would have the same numbers.  I'm calling Kass. 

 

I wonder if anyone is keeping tribe swaps in mind.  Tonight everyone had the idea that the alliance they were making was going to stay solid.

Edited September 24, 2015 by LadyChatts

[anthonyd46]

I will say, I was a little disappointed that Vytas got booted, because I knew he had to be one of the first 3 to go.  If he could at least get through tonight, I'd know that one of my favorites on that tribe would be at least one episode safer.  Now I'm worried for some of my favorites that don't have any sort of solid evidence backing up how well they do.

 

Given what we saw of PG tonight, I do not believe she is long for this game.  Only a tribe swap may help her.  If Bayon lost the next challenge, that makes even more sense that they do a swap at 18.  The tribes would have the same numbers.  I'm calling Kass. 

 

I wonder if anyone is keeping tribe swaps in mind.  Tonight everyone had the idea that the alliance they were making was going to stay solid.

I would have to look it up, but I don't think they have ever swapped after only 2 people were voted out before. So I don't think anyone would be expecting it. Monica got basically zero content tonight.That can't be good for her chances either. I agree PG isn't going very far. Jeff Varner and Kelley Wentworth were the stars of the episode for sure. 

[wonald]

I would have to look it up, but I don't think they have ever swapped after only 2 people were voted out before. So I don't think anyone would be expecting it. Monica got basically zero content tonight.That can't be good for her chances either. I agree PG isn't going very far. Jeff Varner and Kelley Wentworth were the stars of the episode for sure. 

 

They swapped after 1 or 2 out plenty of times. S12 and S13 off the top of my head.

Also, I bet that most, if not all knew about the swap to 3 tribes at 18 since Shane knew about it pregame.

[LadyChatts]

The only time I remember them doing a swap this early was during Panama, and I feel that was more because of the tribes only having 4 members each.  It will be interesting when the swap happens, especially since there will be a new tribe.  No one but Kelley knows about the idols yet and where you can get them, so she may possibly expect other twists but I also doubt anyone else will.  Hopefully the CBS webmonkeys give something away in the promos :)

 

The Bayon women barely got any airtime tonight, except Tasha.  Monica mentioned she was worried about the challenge because she's one of the smallest out there, but if that photo with the green canteen is in fact from the tribe swap, we know she makes it through, along with Stephen and Jeremy.  Bayon also didn't get anything in the preview for next week, either.  There's footage of Jeremy, Andrew, and Terry carrying what looked like little bags and is likely another challenge.  If that challenge isn't part of next week, we know Andrew is safe.  If the men all team up along with Tasha, who I believe said in a pre-game interview she didn't want to work with the women, that isn't good for Kass, Ciera, and Monica.  Unless they get Stephen and Keith on their side and force a tie, but I don't really see that scenario happening.

 

I also think this alliance building could be a load of crap and done solely for the camera, since we know there are pre-game alliances.

Edited September 24, 2015 by LadyChatts

[anthonyd46]

They swapped after 1 or 2 out plenty of times. S12 and S13 off the top of my head.

Also, I bet that most, if not all knew about the swap to 3 tribes at 18 since Shane knew about it pregame.

With tribes of 10 ? I believe panama had 4 tribes of 4 then swapped after 1 person. Cook Islands was 4 tribes of 5 and swapped after 2 boots. I don't think there has been a full 2 tribe season where they swapped after 2 boots. That was odd shane brought that up.

The only time I remember them doing a swap this early was during Panama, and I feel that was more because of the tribes only having 4 members each.  It will be interesting when the swap happens, especially since there will be a new tribe.  No one but Kelley knows about the idols yet and where you can get them, so she may possibly expect other twists but I also doubt anyone else will.  Hopefully the CBS webmonkeys give something away in the promos :)

 

The Bayon women barely got any airtime tonight, except Tasha.  Monica mentioned she was worried about the challenge because she's one of the smallest out there, but if that photo with the green canteen is in fact from the tribe swap, we know she makes it through, along with Stephen and Jeremy.  Bayon also didn't get anything in the preview for next week, either.  There's footage of Jeremy, Andrew, and Terry carrying what looked like little bags and is likely another challenge.  If that challenge isn't part of next week, we know Andrew is safe.  If the men all team up along with Tasha, who I believe said in a pre-game interview she didn't want to work with the women, that isn't good for Kass, Ciera, and Monica.  Unless they get Stephen and Keith on their side and force a tie, but I don't really see that scenario happening.

 

I also think this alliance building could be a load of crap and done solely for the camera, since we know there are pre-game alliances.

The theme I got from the whole thing is are you going to make the most of your second chance or are you going to make the same mistakes? We really didn't get much from Bayon at all so its kind of hard to read them, but Abi definitely defines not changing for sure. Like I said the canteen could be a kidnapping, but you would think that would be in a preview if it was happening. 

[anthonyd46]

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/09/23/survivor-cambodia-second-chance-premiere-eliminated

[wonald]

I think Probst is right - for once! - and that Bayon will win again in E2. The 2nd IC has a hard puzzle at the end. Kass will likely be doing that puzzle with whoever else (probably Joe) and they will definitely be better than Shitrin (she of the puzzle meltdowns) and Spencer (who is not bad but not as good as Kass).

 

Wigles will prob be next voted off. I guess PG might be a possibility but I think the PG/Jeff convo this episode was a harbinger that that is an important partnership.

 

Edited September 24, 2015 by wonald

[anthonyd46]

I think Probst is right - for once! - and that Bayon will win again in E2. The 2nd IC has a hard puzzle at the end. Kass will likely be doing that puzzle with whoever else (probably Joe) and they will definitely be better than Shitrin (she of the puzzle meltdowns) and Spencer (who is not bad but not as good as Kass).

 

Wigles will prob be next voted off. I guess PG might be a possibility but I think the PG/Jeff convo this episode was a harbinger that that is an important partnership.

We saw Wigles twice get out to a lead in a challenge and blow it (swimming in the marooning and failing at the key after being ahead). Have to wonder if this just shows she just doesn't have enough to succeed in the long run.

[LadyChatts]

Jeff's teaser for next week:

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/09/24/survivor-cambodia-second-chance-premiere-jeff-probst

Okay, sir. Off to a great start. Tease us up for next week and this season in general.
Next week you really start to see the emotion come to the surface. There’s a truly romantic story of love, there’s a moment of empathy and comfort from someone you wouldn’t expect, there’s another exciting challenge that results in more tears at the thought of Tribal Council. That enough?

 

 

I'm thinking the romantic story could be Joe/Monica, since we saw them talking about each other in the pre-game previews/interviews.  I don't know if this particular scene was from the first 3 days, since we didn't get to see much of Bayon last night.  But in the first behind the scenes preview released, Joe is talking with Monica and saying something along the lines of "we need to figure something out".  I wonder if that is a sign Bayon loses the next challenge, and that was a clip of Joe/Monica after.  Joe's got his alpha alliance, unless that falls apart, or they realize they don't quite have the numbers to pull off the vote or want to avoid a tie.

 

Of course, while the "more tears" could be either tribe since no one wants to go to TC, could be Ta'Keo loses again.

 

Also, promo images for the next ep:

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/s31_press_images_ep2.html

Edited September 24, 2015 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

Question for the mods: Jeff Teases belong in Speculation or spoiler?

[LadyChatts]

Question for the mods: Jeff Teases belong in Speculation or spoiler?

 

That's a good question.  I guess I would also want to ask, same for any press images or previews.  We did inadvertantly get spoilers in the promos/press images this season, even if you might not have picked up on them unless you were looking.  And, sometimes the episode description and Jeff's teasers might be obvious and give something away.  It's why when in doubt, I put it here.

[anthonyd46]

Jeff's teaser for next week:

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/09/24/survivor-cambodia-second-chance-premiere-jeff-probst

 

I'm thinking the romantic story could be Joe/Monica, since we saw them talking about each other in the pre-game previews/interviews.  I don't know if this particular scene was from the first 3 days, since we didn't get to see much of Bayon last night.  But in the first behind the scenes preview released, Joe is talking with Monica and saying something along the lines of "we need to figure something out".  I wonder if that is a sign Bayon loses the next challenge, and that was a clip of Joe/Monica after.  Joe's got his alpha alliance, unless that falls apart, or they release they don't quite have the numbers to pull off the vote or want to avoid a tie.

 

Of course, while the "more tears" could be either tribe since no one wants to go to TC, could be Ta'Keo loses again.

 

Also, promo images for the next ep:

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/s31_press_images_ep2.html

I would say spoilers because his teases would cause us to reference things we already know and tie them to them such as the Monica Joe thing Ladychatts mentioned she would not know that unless she read the spoilers section.

 

The people on sucks can somehow see what time the images were posted. With that info they were able to see there are no bayon shots posted after the challenge shots. Therefore they are assuming Ta Keo loses again. Considering the intro shot of Kelly with a Bayon member right beside her and there being no Bayon members that close in the episode 2 challenge then it has to be from a future episode. So that would take Terry (quit) Spencer (in same pic as Kelly) Kelly (challenge pic i just mentioned) Woo (seen in tasha crying pic next to her) Abi ( seen in swap pic) and Jeff (yellow buff pic). So 6 of 9 can't be voted out. That leaves PG, Shirin, and Kelley. With Kelley's massive weight loss it seems unlikely so she is out. So its PG or Shirin. Though I don't think PG has any shot at winning I feel like her scene with Jeff last night at least gets her by this episode. Shirin seems like the logical choice to be second out.

[LadyChatts]

Shirin seems tight with Spencer.  However, we do see Jeff talking about wanting to target the young new schoolers in the preview.  Assuming Woo doesn't jump over to that side, they could pull off getting Shirin voted off with the vote of Woo/Terry/Kelly/Varner, and PG if she doesn't want to vote in the same alliance as Abi again.  I am still surprised PG didn't vote for Abi last night, unless what Varner said made her change her vote.

[anthonyd46]

Shirin seems tight with Spencer.  However, we do see Jeff talking about wanting to target the young new schoolers in the preview.  Assuming Woo doesn't jump over to that side, they could pull off getting Shirin voted off with the vote of Woo/Terry/Kelly/Varner, and PG if she doesn't want to vote in the same alliance as Abi again.  I am still surprised PG didn't vote for Abi last night, unless what Varner said made her change her vote.

That makes sense to me that water scene was important for something I think. Jeff did mention Shirin was a train so that could be her down fall. 

[LadyChatts]

Episode 3 is titled "We Got A Rat".  Sounds like another #blindside coming up for episode 2.  We didn't get  much in terms of tribe dynamics at Bayon, unless Jeremy's alpha alliance falls apart and someone flips.  So it's hard to say who might get voted of there or who that quote could apply to, if it is in fact about the vote. I'm guessing it has something to do with Varner in the previews for next week talking about targeting the likes of Spencer's group. 

 

From what we know, I don't believe there's any evidence that points to Kass, Ciera, Shirin, or PG lasting beyond the next vote, so my feeling is it is one of those four.  The only reason I though Shirin might do well is because she was allied with Spencer, and if he had a strong alliance, that might carry her.  Could be she's ruffled some feathers.  Wonder if Varner will try and blame her for the Vytas vote.

Edited September 25, 2015 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

I think that episode three is when they split into three tribes. The numbers would be right.

[Wings]

I am just catching up on spoilers now.  Has it been reasonably confirmed that Terry's son had a heart transplant and he quit?  

[ProfCrash]

Yes, his son had a heart transplant and there is a great deal of strong evidence that he left the game but I don't think there is definitive proof like a picture of him at the hospital.

[Wings]

Yes, his son had a heart transplant and there is a great deal of strong evidence that he left the game but I don't think there is definitive proof like a picture of him at the hospital.

 

 

Thanks.  Do we know how deep in the game this happens?

Edited September 25, 2015 by wings707

[ProfCrash]

That we don't know but it is before the merge.

[wonald]

I am just catching up on spoilers now.  Has it been reasonably confirmed that Terry's son had a heart transplant and he quit?  

 

 

His daughter confirmed it on Twitter.

[cooksdelight]

Danny just had the transplant in the last week or so, but Terry was at his side at the hospital months ago when he first became seriously ill. Danny seems to be doing very well, thank God.

[LadyChatts]

http://www.survivorfever.net/images31/s31_press_images_ep2/s31_press_images_ep2_0093.jpg

 

Here is an image for next week.  Joe's wearing flippers and a snorkeling mask, which are usually rewards given out for the challenges.  Have we ever seen these items on the boats when they've done previous maroonings/grab whatever you can off the truck in under a minute?

 

I think that episode three is when they split into three tribes. The numbers would be right.

 

 

The swap does happen at 18.  We know from previews that Tasha, Jeff, and I believe Abi all swap to the same tribe (the new tribe).  Woo also survives though he stays on Ta'Keo.  For some reason I think it will apply to either Jeff or he says it.  I guess it could be related to something happening in that episode (a quote at TC or the events leading up to TC) instead of what happened at the previous TC.

Edited September 25, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Zuleikha]

Do we know that Terry leaves after the tribal swap? Jeff's description of "a moment of empathy and comfort" could refer to people consoling Terry and he says "at the thought of Tribal Council" instead of "at Tribal Council," which makes me wonder if Terry leaves this episode. It seems strange that PG or Shirin would leave next ep since they're in the majority alliance right now... unless Varner just goes full-on chaos and flips because he doesn't like working with Shirin.

 

The main thing that points against that to me is that Fishbach gave Shirin his praise for her alliance building this episode. He would probably know if she got voted out because of the same behavior at the very next Tribal Council, so I wouldn't think he'd reward her for it when Joe or Kelley are such logical alternatives.

[Skeeter22]

There is some decent speculation that Bayon wins the fishing gear in a combo reward/immunity challenge. If that's the case, I wonder if Ta Keo panics and instead of targeting physical threats, they turn around and vote out someone like Shirin. Jeff certainly seemed put off by her intensity in the premiere.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Skeeter22

[ProfCrash]

"Credible Terry evacuated due to family emergency (Impenetrableness Kayla Deitz).
•The implicit timing of this event suggests that Terry leaves on Day 13 (or Day 12) and is either the fifth boot or leaves directly after the fifth TC."

 

From Survivor Fever.

 

They don't have the exact timing but it sounds like he makes it through the first tribal switch and is gone before the merge

[anthonyd46]

"Credible Terry evacuated due to family emergency (Impenetrableness Kayla Deitz).

•The implicit timing of this event suggests that Terry leaves on Day 13 (or Day 12) and is either the fifth boot or leaves directly after the fifth TC."

 

From Survivor Fever.

 

They don't have the exact timing but it sounds like he makes it through the first tribal switch and is gone before the merge

Its possible its like the vytas thing we don't know. Vytas we didn't get the instagram like until Day 9 thinking that might mean he is boot #3 but in reality he is boot #1. Terry the news broke about day Day 12 to the public, however, we don't know when it broke to Terry on the island. All we know is the latest Terry can leave is Day 12 or 13. 

[ProfCrash]

I can't imagine that Terry stayed out there for too long after hearing about the problem. I would imagine that he choose to leave pretty soon after he got the news. I suppose the other option is that they called to say that there was a problem but that it might not be all that serious and then it escalated and he left. Or he left the game and it took a few days to get him off the island. But if that was the case, he would have been waiting at Ponderosa and not on the beach. I doubt they would have left him in the game while working out the flight details.

[anthonyd46]

I can't imagine that Terry stayed out there for too long after hearing about the problem. I would imagine that he choose to leave pretty soon after he got the news. I suppose the other option is that they called to say that there was a problem but that it might not be all that serious and then it escalated and he left. Or he left the game and it took a few days to get him off the island. But if that was the case, he would have been waiting at Ponderosa and not on the beach. I doubt they would have left him in the game while working out the flight details.

Well this is what we figured out on sucks:

 

I wrote:

 

I do not believe that there is a way to see the exact time of the comment. You can only see the exact time of the original post which for that post wouldn't tell us anything since it was made during the fan vote period. The most we can go on here is when Terry's daughter first posted about Danny and the first post I see of her mentioning he is in the hospital  is http://www.pikore.com/m/1009611394218355607_315151177which says June 17th 5:04 PM. Her most recent post before that was June 10th 9:23 PM http://www.pikore.com/m/1004668346891922011_315151177 . So we can narrow it down to somewhere between June 10th (Day 12 in cambodia time) to June 17th (Day 19 in Cambodia time). However lets take this one step further and use Danny's gf instagram pic that was saw originally. http://www.pikore.com/m/1005282705112470871_34006188 June 11 5:44 PM. That means Danny must have been admitted to the hospital somewhere between June 10th 9:23 pm and June 11 5:44 PM. I believe from all this we can conclude if told right away Terry left the game on June 11th american time/June 12th morning cambodia time. This would be Day 13 morning Cambodia time. Hope that helps.

 

Then the admin wrote: 

 

Timestamp for the prayer instagram says afternoon of 6/11 (morning of Day 13), and we can assume the kid had already been in trouble by the time she posted. Impenetrable's conversation (which stated the family "had Terry taken out of the game") was timestamped the evening of 6/12 (morning of Day 14). Though we've already heard this season has some differences from other 20-man seasons, TDT's calendar estimate puts TC5 on Day 13.

Terry is very likely the fifth out, unless the early boots are more spaced out than expected, in which case he's fourth.

Speculation: Terry is pulled in a Probst visit to his tribe's camp on Day 13, and the IC/TC scheduled for that day are canceled.

[LadyChatts]

There was a shot of Tasha in the intro crying, and Anti at Sucks believe her buff she was wearing (the Bayon buff) was buff-o-maticed and it is really the Angkor buff.  Some people speculated her tears might have had to do with learning about Terry.  It could be all 3 tribes show up for the challenge, and they get the news that Terry is leaving the game (similar to how Jenna M left AS).  That would at least put it past the next TC, since the swap happens at 18.

[wonald]

Terry is seen at a challenge that happens in E3 at the earliest. It ABSOLUTELY does not happen next wk.

[Zuleikha]

Sorry, all for sidetracking down a dead-end. I've read this whole thread, but not any of the other Survivor spoiler boards so I'm having trouble keeping track of which boot dates are known vs. speculated. 

[anthonyd46]

Sorry, all for sidetracking down a dead-end. I've read this whole thread, but not any of the other Survivor spoiler boards so I'm having trouble keeping track of which boot dates are known vs. speculated. 

Heres a cheat sheet:

 

Ta Keo

 

Vytas - Instagram like Day 9 must be booted before day 9 - TRUE booted on day 1

Terry - Quits the game, confirmation by his daughter that this happened. Instagram research and other sources verify the son gets sick on either late Day 12 or early Day 13. Terry leaves sometime in this 2 day span

Kelly - Kelly is seen looking towards spencer in the survivor intro with a bayon member right behind her therefore Kelly either swapped to Bayon or there is a group challenge where all tribe members of both tribes are in both range. We have not seen any press images of this in episode 2 so Kelly is safe till episode 3 at minimum

Woo - There is a scene of Tasha crying in intro. It is speculated this happens when Terry leaves on Day 12 or 13 which would be episode 4 or 5. If Tasha does not cry in episode 2 then woo is safe until she is shown crying.

Kelley - Massive weight loss zombie looking even don't have anything showing her past this episode, but with that kind of weight loss it would be very surprising she only lasted 6 days she is safe.

PG - Her intro shots end this episode possible boot.

Shirin - Her intro shots end this episode possible boot.

Spencer - He is in the same group shot Kelly is in 

Jeff - Shot with yellow buff in Season Preview video on youtube means he is good until minimum of episode 3

Abi - Is seen standing next to someone with a yellow buff in the Season Preview video on youtube therefore she is good until a minimum of episode 3 

 

Before i go onto bayon know that is is super unlikely bayon loses a challenge episode 2, because in the press images there are no press images of bayon that have a timestamp after the IC.

 

Bayon

 

Stephen - Seen in camp shot with green bottle at bayon camp, safe till episode 3 minimum.

Monica - See above

Jeremy - See above + Bag holding challenge in intro (no confirmation on when this challenge is, but it isn't episode 2)

Kass - No intro shots past ep 2

Joe - No intro shots past ep 2

Ciera - No intro shots past ep 2

Keith - No intro shots past ep 2 , however a lot of weight loss

Kimmi - No intro shots past ep 2  , however zombie levels of weight loss

Tasha - There is a scene of Tasha crying in intro. It is speculated this happens when Terry leaves on Day 12 or 13 which would be episode 4 or 5. If Tasha does not cry in episode 2 then tasha is safe until she is shown crying.

Savage - Bag holding challenge in intro (no confirmation on when this challenge is, but it isn't episode 2)

Edited September 25, 2015 by anthonyd46

[LadyChatts]

This bit from Jeff makes me think Kelly Wigles may be in it for the long haul:

 

Kelly Wiglesworth
She's my favorite person on the cast. Kelly didn't have anything to prove to me. She clearly had the skills, her body is still in amazing shape. She's just as likable. She's just as quiet. When she played before, Richard Hatch stole the game from her, and she wanted the chance to take it again. She has a story this season that will be very compelling to viewers.

 

 

I could see the story part being coming back after 15 yrs, and being so far removed from Survivor that she didn't even watch your season until recently.  But the compelling part intrigues me.  I have to think Kelly's around for awhile to live up to that part.  Then again, this is Probst saying all of this, so who knows.

Edited September 25, 2015 by LadyChatts