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2023 Awards Season


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On 1/27/2023 at 4:01 PM, AngieBee1 said:

If people want to believe that there is something more insidious going on like racism, then how does that account for the nominations of Brian Tyree Henry, Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu and Angela Bassett?

Because racism is insidious and Hollywood is a well documented, intrinsically racist industry that has a real problem with treating People of Color as a box to be checked. If there wasn’t a history of actors of color struggling so hard to get any recognition while many white actors are such obvious, and frequently undeserving, award bait it would be a different conversation. I have no doubt that racism is involved because it is always involved. Just like nepotism and elitism are always involved. 

 

On 1/24/2023 at 7:09 AM, Shannon L. said:

 

I still have to read all of the nominations, but Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: Way of Water?  Seriously? 

 

I had the same reaction. Every year it gets harder and harder to take the Oscars seriously. 

On 1/24/2023 at 5:01 PM, thuganomics85 said:

Out of all the categories, I'm really curious to see how Original Screenplay plays out since all of the arguably "frontrunners" (Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Tar, Fablemans) are duking it out there

...

I wonder if Martin McDonagh has an advantage since he also got a director nod (I know some were predicting he'd miss that),

Every person nominated for best director also got a nomination for best original screenplay.  Is that common?  (I don't really follow awards season, but this popped out when I scanned the list.)

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On 1/24/2023 at 5:01 PM, thuganomics85 said:

Don't know what to think about who will win the big one and I won't speculate because I totally didn't predict CODA winning it last year, so I ain't going try and figure it out yet!

I guess The Fabelmans would be this year's CODA: warm, affectionate, family-oriented, with positive messages, likely not to be hated by anyone, thus likely to do well on a preferential ballot. Of course, it's also quite literally this year's Belfast, a famous filmmaker's loving recreation of his boyhood environment, and Belfast only went 1 for 7 last year.  

I'm not sure what they'll do either. I can make a case for and against several movies on the list. EEAAO probably plays better to younger Academy members than to older ones; TÁR is an icy, deliberate film about a difficult character and the opportunists and phonies around her; Banshees is cryptic and strange, if fun to listen to and less brutal than most McDonagh; Elvis is polarizing with the Luhrmann of it all... 

I have to say it's one of the most interesting years of recent memory, not only for this race but several others. And it was a good movie year.  

Edited by Simon Boccanegra
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Objectively speaking, Its quite ingenious what the Riseborough camp did to secure her nomination.   And yes, Studios/producers spend plenty of money pushing/pandering nominations for their films.

Having said that, its still an uncomfortable mix of seeing a tight circle of entitled white power players work the system.

Just a wild guess, but I don’t think Viola Dais was invited to these private screenings with her HW “friends” lobbying her to place Riseborough first in her best actress ballot.

 

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Absnow54:

Does anyone have a good article that explains the controversy? I keep on hearing mentions of ranked voting to work the system, but then when I read any stories on it, they only talk about famous people hosting screenings and tweeting their support.

https://theweek.com/celebrity/1020500/why-andrea-riseboroughs-oscar-nomination-is-so-controversial

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On Jan. 14, Titanic star Frances Fisher also urged her fellow actors on Instagram to vote for Riseborough and nominate her in the first position on their ballot, writing that it "seems to be that Viola [Davis], Michelle [Yeoh], Danielle [Deadwyler] & Cate [Blanchett] are a lock for their outstanding work." This could be another potential violation of the rule about singling out the competition, with Fisher suggesting followers need not vote for Davis and Deadwyler because they're guaranteed to be nominated. (It turns out, they weren't.) 

 

 

 

Edited by caracas1914
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I don't think there is much danger of Riseborough winning. She gives a great performance and is the best thing about a movie that is only so-so (very lifelike in some details but underwritten and oddly focused). For her and for De Armas, the nomination was the win.

It will be Blanchett or Yeoh. Williams, who may be in the wrong category, is a more plausible longshot, just because she has been good in so many movies and has been an Oscar also-ran four times before. Not that that has done Glenn Close any good. 

Edited by Simon Boccanegra
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13 hours ago, Spartan Girl said:

I swear if Michelle Yeoh loses the Oscar because they vote for Andrea because of the “controversy” my rage will be fathomless.

There's no way. For nominations, it's only the actors voting. For the actual award, it's the entire academy. People in "lesser" categories get their nominations rescinced all of the time for similar violations, and they'll view it as special treatment. Michelle Yeoh's only rival in the category is Cate Blanchett.

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Interesting shakeup with the acting categories. I'm surprised that even with the Banshees of Inisherin picking up both supporting categories, the British Academy went for Austin Butler over Colin Farrell. That's a pretty big boost to his Oscar campaign, especially since Brendan Fraser's comeback narrative seems to be sputtering out.

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FWIW, Brendan Fraser won the Critics Choice Award for Best Actor and AARP's Movies for Grownups Award for Best Actor (as well as a slew of film festival awards)...

Brendan Fraser wins Best Actor at the Critics Choice Awards: 'Where were you for Furry Vengeance?'
By Lester Fabian Brathwaite    January 15, 2023 
https://ew.com/awards/brendan-fraser-best-actor-critics-choice-awards-2023/ 

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Brendan Fraser may have won Best Actor for his performance in The Whale at the 2023 Critics Choice Awards, but he's still got love for his films that didn't get anywhere near an awards show.


Austin Butler Salutes Baz Luhrmann at 2023 AARP Movies for Grownup Awards (Full Winners List)
By Paul Grein  01/29/2023
https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/aarp-movies-for-grownup-awards-full-winners-list-2023-1235207629/ 

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Best actor: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Edited by tv echo

Yeah, Butler's win seems pretty big to me and I'm probably going to rethink my initial prediction.  Still want to see how the SAGs play out, but I'm starting to suspect he'll win the big one.  Farrell especially took a hit since he had "home field advantage."  But if Butler gets the SAG, it's all over.

Speaking of which, baring Yeoh or someone else winning SAG, I have to imagine Blanchett should already make room for her third Oscar trophy.

While I'm not majorly invested in the director race this go around, I kind of want it to be the Daniels just so we can live in a world where the guys behind Lil Jon's "Turn Down For What!" music video are now Oscar winners!

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While the BAFTA winners across the board are interesting, IMO they don't carry a great deal of weight because there's not much of an overlap in the BAFTA and AMPAS voting bases. We've seen Oscars awarded to artists who were not even nominated for a BAFTA. (Regina King comes to mind.) I don't necessarily think that Brendan Fraser's Oscar odds are substantially lowered by Austin Butler's BAFTA win. OTOH, should Butler win the SAG this coming Sunday evening, that could point to a trend. 

I will say that while I'm not shocked by the BAFTA wins for The Banshees of Inisherin in the acting categories, I'm somewhat surprised that Barry Keoghan took the Supporting Actor prize over Brendon Gleeson. I still think the Oscar has Ke Huy Quan's name on it.

I think the two most Oscars' influential occurrences this week are 1) The Daniels winning the DGA award for EEAAO (Yay!) and 2) Steven Spielberg going out of his way at the Oscar Nominees Luncheon to publicly and demonstrably thank Tom Cruise for saving the film industry with Top Gun: Maverick. I've thought all along that TG:M could win Best Picture. Spielberg's actions may very well give AMPAS voters a final push to move the film to or nearer the top of their ballots. The Producers Guild Awards are this Saturday. I can't wait to see what the PGA chooses as the Best Picture. I'm betting it's Top Gun: Maverick. My hope, however, is that Oscar voters follow the DGA's lead and choose Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Edited by ProudMary
Punctuation correction
18 minutes ago, Spartan Girl said:

Nothing personal with Austin, but if he beats Brendan Fraser I’m going to be pissed, mainly because I’m still bitter than Taron Egerton lost the Oscar to fucking Joaquin in Joker, because Rocket Man was a far better movie than Elvis or Bohemian Rhapsody.

Still holding out hope for Michelle.

Amen. Austin was fantastic and deserved a nomination, imo, and Rami Malek was the best part of BoRap, so congrats to him-a well deserved win, imo, but what a slap in the face it was that Taron wasn't even nominated.

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1 hour ago, Shannon L. said:

Amen. Austin was fantastic and deserved a nomination, imo, and Rami Malek was the best part of BoRap, so congrats to him-a well deserved win, imo, but what a slap in the face it was that Taron wasn't even nominated.

Taron was wonderful.  That whole movie slipped under the radar.  Actually, Jamie Bell was wonderful too.  That was so messed up.

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I watched Banshees of Inisherin last night and, while I didn't love it, I didn't hate it either, which is what I expected.  I'm fully on board with Colin Ferrel and Kerry Condon's nominations, but not Brendan Gleeson's or Barry Keoghan's.  Brendan's because he didn't move me as much as Colin and Barry's because I felt like his role, while wonderfully acted, wasn't a big enough part of the plot for that kind of recognition. 

Anyway, I'm planning on watching The Fabelmans before the Oscars, at which point I'll have seen all of them except Women Talking and All Quiet on the Western Front, both of which may be fantastic, but neither of which I'm really interested in seeing.  Leaving out Top Gun and Avatar, which I don't think belong in the BP category, I'd rate the ones I've seen so far:

Elvis

EEAAO

Banshees of Inisherin

Triangle of Sadness*

Tar*

Of course, that's just based on how much I enjoyed them.  If you forced me to throw in Top Gun and Avatar then, based on my enjoyment, I'd probably put Top Gun above EEAAO and Avatar after EEAAO.

*Triangle of Sadness and Tar are hard ones for me to place because I didn't like either one of them, but because there was more action in Triangle, it kept my attention better, so I put it first, but honestly, there's a very slim margin between the two for me.

 

14 hours ago, Shannon L. said:

I'm planning on watching The Fabelmans before the Oscars, at which point I'll have seen all of them except Women Talking and All Quiet on the Western Front, both of which may be fantastic, but neither of which I'm really interested in seeing.

I've seen all but the Avatar sequel. I hope to get to it at some point before the ceremony, but I don't feel like going out of my way to do so, and I missed my chance to see it at a nearby theater. Like many people, it seems, I enjoyed the first Avatar well enough, never felt the urge to watch it again over the next 13 years, and remember very little about it. 

Of the nine I have seen, my preferential ballot would be: 

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once

2. TÁR

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. The Fabelmans 

5. Top Gun: Maverick

6. Women Talking

7. All Quiet on the Western Front 

8. Elvis

9. Triangle of Sadness

Deciding the order of 6 and 7 was the hardest part here. They're both good but flawed. I gave Women Talking the edge because it had more memorable characters and performances. More of it has stayed with me. When I try to think of any specific scenes in All Quiet on the Western Front, even though I saw it only two months ago, I may be thinking of 1917 (which I thought was better).

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1 hour ago, Shannon L. said:

I've seen a couple of articles saying that with no apparent from runner, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Top Gun could be a surprise winner of Best Picture at the Oscars.  Ugh.

The Producers Guild awards are tonight. I think Top Gun: Maverick will take the win there and that's a strong predictor for a Best Picture win at the Oscars. It wouldn't make it a given, as I think EEAAO has more momentum, but IMO, it's probably a 50/50 chance that Top Gun takes the big prize. OTOH, if the Producers DON'T award it tonight, I think TG's chances drop WAY down.

Also, the PGA Awards use the same preferential ballot, where the voters rank their favorites, as the Oscars do.

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On 2/22/2023 at 2:18 PM, Shannon L. said:

Elvis

EEAAO

Banshees of Inisherin

Triangle of Sadness*

Tar*

Of course, that's just based on how much I enjoyed them.  If you forced me to throw in Top Gun and Avatar then, based on my enjoyment, I'd probably put Top Gun above EEAAO and Avatar after EEAAO.

I saw The Fabelmans today.  The production was beautiful and the acting was amazing, I thought it was too long and too slow.  On my list, I'd put it below Banshees of Inisherin.

 

 

 

And... it just dominated the SAGs as well, so yeah, its frontrunner status is getting even stronger.  Obviously, I know by now not to assume anything, but not too shabby at all.

So, it looks like both Actress and Actor are a two-way race now, with Yeoh finally get a solid win over Blanchett, and Fraser getting a much needed win to face off against Butler (sniff, sorry Colin!)  Meanwhile, Ke Huy Quan can probably already have his named engraved into the Oscar, while Supporting Actress continues to be all over the place with Jamie Lee Curtis winning this round.  Honestly, at this point, I might just go for one of the ones who hasn't won a major precursor.  Hong Chau or Stephanie Hsu for the win!

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On 2/25/2023 at 3:27 PM, Shannon L. said:

I've seen a couple of articles saying that with no apparent from runner, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Top Gun could be a surprise winner of Best Picture at the Oscars.  Ugh.

Obviously this is delayed, because EEAAO had such a huge weekend, but I thought between the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, it was the pretty clear favorite. And the academy would have The Fabelmans to fall back on, should there ever be a void.

The acting race has certainly gotten interesting. I thought Best Actor was going to be the only toss up, but now it appears Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress are both up for grabs. I think Blanchett still has the edge over Michelle Yeoh, though I'd love to be wrong. Yeoh would have the edge with SAG, but I think the rest of the academy might skew toward Blanchett's prestige (The Anthony Hopkins Effect.)

For Best Supporting Actress, I think Jamie Lee Curtis might carry it to the finish line. Angela Bassett has the disadvantage of being in a super hero movie, and unless you're playing the Joker, that puts you at a huge disadvantage. Or they may decide to throw it to Kerry Condon, so that the Banshees can walk away with one acting award.

I would also say that Brendan Fraser has the edge over Austin Butler. It's a tight race, but Butler is playing better with the international audience, which won't neccessarily help him with the Academy. Brendan Fraser seems deeply likable, and everyone he's ever worked with speaks so highly of him. The connections he built during the 90s, with industry folk who were only starting out at the time and are now big players, will probably take him over the top. 

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9 hours ago, absnow54 said:

For Best Supporting Actress, I think Jamie Lee Curtis might carry it to the finish line. Angela Bassett has the disadvantage of being in a super hero movie, and unless you're playing the Joker, that puts you at a huge disadvantage

Counterbalance two threads (well, maybe three, since EEAOO is the big critical darling that the awards seem to be falling in behind):

-Jamie Lee Curtis as a link to two Hollywood legends, given the nepo baby chatter.

-Angela Bassett having had a fairly strong prior Best Actress nomination for What's Love Got to Do with It?

(edited)
2 hours ago, BetterButter said:

WOW, what a night for Everything Everywhere ALL at Once! Wins for Best Feature, Director(s) (The Daniels), Screenplay (The Daniels), Lead Performance (Michelle Yeoh, winning over Cate Blanchett), Supporting Performance (Ke Huy Quan), Breakthrough Performance (Stephanie Hsu), and Editing (Paul Rogers).

It won EVERY category it was nominated for. Clean sweep!

Edited by ProudMary
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Feinberg Forecast: Updated Projections As Final Oscar Voting Gets Underway

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards, Scott Feinberg, reflects Feinberg’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself.

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Writers Guild of America Awards:

Original Screenplay - Everything Everywhere All at Once, Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert.

Adapted Screenplay  - Women Talking, Screenplay by Sarah Polley, Based upon the book by Miriam Toews.

Full list of winners here for Film, TV, News and Radio via The Hollywood Reporter.

WGA Awards: Complete Winners List

 

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(edited)

Winners of the International Press Academy (IPA)'s 27th Satellite Awards were announced on March 3 - like the Golden Globes (from which it split/spun off), the IPA Awards divide movies into two categories: Drama and Comedy or Musical...

The International Press Academy Announces Winners for the 27th Annual SATELLITE™ Awards
MARCH 3, 2023  |  BY IPA ADMIN
https://www.pressacademy.com/news/the-international-press-academy-announces-winners-for-the-27th-annual-satellite-awards/ 

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ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Danielle Deadwyler     Till (United Artists Releasing)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Brendan Fraser   The  Whale (A24) 

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Michelle Yeoh     Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Austin Butler     Elvis (Warner Bros.)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Claire Foy      Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Ke Huy Quan      Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) 

MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Top Gun: Maverick  (Paramount Pictures)

MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
*  *  *
DIRECTOR
James Cameron     Avatar: The Way of Water (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
Martin McDonagh       The Banshees of Inisherin  (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
Sarah Polley     Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)

ORIGINAL SCORE
Justin Hurwitz     Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

ORIGINAL SONG      
“Hold My Hand”      Lady Gaga      Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Claudio Miranda     Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

FILM EDITING
Paul Rogers     Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

SOUND (EDITING AND MIXING)
Top Gun: Maverick     Al Nelson, James Mather, Mark Weingarten & Bjorn Schroeder (Paramount Pictures)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water     Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, Richie Baneham, Dan Barrett (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Babylon      Florencia Martin , Anthony Carlino (Paramount Pictures)

COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres      Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

ENSEMBLE MOTION PICTURE Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

Edited by tv echo
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The award you don't want to win...

The 43rd Annual Razzie Award ‘winners’ are…
By Lisa Respers France      March 11, 2023
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/11/entertainment/razzie-awards-2023-winners/index.html 

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The best of the worst in cinema were celebrated Saturday with the announcement of the winners of the 43rd Annual Razzie Awards.

Netflix’s Marilyn Monroe inspired biopic “Blonde,” the critically panned Jared Leto film “Morbius” and Baz Luhrman’s “Elvis” each won two awards, including one for Tom Hanks for his portrayal of Elvis’ manager, Colonel Tom Parker.

Edited by tv echo

Wow, what a night.  I don’t think I’ve been this pleased with the winners in a single ceremony since Return of the King had its sweep.

My one quibble was Pinocchio winning of Marcel the Shell, but considering that had the latter won, A24 would have gotten every single major category, and I can see wanting to spread the love around a little.

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On 3/12/2023 at 1:15 PM, tv echo said:

Netflix’s Marilyn Monroe inspired biopic “Blonde,” the critically panned Jared Leto film “Morbius” and Baz Luhrman’s “Elvis” each won two awards, including one for Tom Hanks for his portrayal of Elvis’ manager, Colonel Tom Parker.

That was well-deserved. What the hell was Tom Hanks thinking?

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