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Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?


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13 minutes ago, Curio said:

If ABC makes a decision about Season 7 within the first two weeks of March, A&E have barely enough time to change the finale.

They don't have to, since they've already been instructed to wrap up the story in the S6 finale regardless of a renewal.

The most that would have to be changed if there's no S7 would probably just be the very final scene, most likely featuring adult Henry.

If they get a S7, there will be a lead-in to it in that scene.  If not, it will be reshot as a happy ending scene, or removed altogether.

Edited by Mathius
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16 minutes ago, sharky said:

I think they're filming until early April, right? So hopefully by then they'll have a few weeks of ratings to determine how much they'll have to film for a cliffhanger or series conclusion.

Final filming day is March 31.

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March 31? That's cutting it close but would still give them a better idea of whether they need a cliffhanger scene or not. By that point, they'll realistically have three weeks of ratings to go on, maybe four if they're cutting it that close.

45 minutes ago, Mathius said:

The most that would have to be changed if there's no S7 would probably just be the very final scene, most likely featuring adult Henry.

If they get a S7, there will be a lead-in to it in that scene.  If not, it will be reshot as a happy ending scene, or removed altogether.

Yeah, I'm assuming they'll film the cliffhanger and then it will be a tack on/leave out situation similar to Castle last year. And btw, that was crap. The show needed to end, it was on its last legs even before the final drama with casting, but that last scene was so obviously an after thought. I'm hoping that worse case scenario, Once can get a better final scene than that.

All that being said, we're assuming that the ratings in March will clearly show everyone what kind of decision they'll make. But that Castle decision was down to the wire last year, way past when they ended filming, which partially explains why that final scene seemed out of place. I'm kind of worried that Once will be just so close to the renew/cancel border that we could be waiting until upfronts to finally find out its fate.

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Again, they specifically said they're ending the story that's been going on with this main cast and wrapping a bow on it regardless of cancellation or renewal, so I don't think the situation is going to be nearly as bad as it was with Castle, even if it ends up being another down to the wire case.

Edited by Mathius
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Wrapping "a bow" on the 6B arc isn't the same as wrapping up the show as we know it as a whole.  Granted, it's doubtful they would have properly used the opportunity if they were given a final season, but it at least would have given them time to hit one or two good shots among many volleys of misfires.  Between Alt Robin, Aladdin/Jasmine, Gideon and The Evil Queen, there's no time to wrap anything up beyond the storylines they've stirred up for 6B.

Edited by Camera One
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20 minutes ago, Camera One said:

Between Alt Robin, Aladdin/Jasmine, Gideon and The Evil Queen, there's no time to wrap anything up beyond the storylines they've stirred up for 6B.

Alt Robin and the Evil Queen end in 6x14.  Gideon and the Black Fairy end in 6x19.  

Aladdin and Jasmine, on the other hand, I remain unsure about.  They might just be in the finale, which is a pretty sad state of affairs.

Let's hope they're actually in and wrapped up in the musical episode.  Hey, it'd be an actual good use of Karen David.

Quote

Wrapping "a bow" on the 6B arc isn't the same as wrapping up the show as we know it as a whole.

But wrapping up the show as we know it is what they're aiming for with the two-part finale.  That's been explicitly made clear now.

Edited by Mathius
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1 hour ago, Mathius said:

They don't have to, since they've already been instructed to wrap up the story in the S6 finale regardless of a renewal.

The most that would have to be changed if there's no S7 would probably just be the very final scene, most likely featuring adult Henry.

If they get a S7, there will be a lead-in to it in that scene.  If not, it will be reshot as a happy ending scene, or removed altogether.

I agree. Wrap it all up. No matter what happens.

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11 hours ago, Souris said:

If Jen doesn't re-sign for S7, I hope A&E don't take it out on Emma. They seem petty that way.

If OUAT gets a S7 but not with Jen and A&E take it out on Emma, I hope ABC takes the whole show away from them due to the inevitable backlash.  I'm petty that way.  :)

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There so many rumours about who leaving or could be ask back if there a renewal and most of time the gossip add up with the blogger bias.

But, franckly the rating in spring will be down and a season 7 reboot or not will be the final nail in the coffin. 

Sure, I will watch if Jen and Colin still there but if not...

Maybe, the only silver lining is a season (overly featuring the EQ) 6 with fallen rating following with a mistake reboot sans cs(if that the case) and probably Regina.

 I will always blame the double down of EQ and the Regina show for the end of Once.

I am pretty like that! 

Honestly, I was hoping for a final season to close the main characters storyline in a satisfying way. I don't see that possible now so they should just end the show. Let's it go!

maybe ABC could have their Dysney synergy with Hyperion. 

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So, this OUAT ad played during the Oscars last night.

The Oscars drew 32.9 million viewers. Not including sporting events, the Academy Awards is consistently one of the most-watched events on television each year. 

So what did ABC/OUAT decide to do? They featured a cheesy, scene-chewing, 15-second ad of the Evil Queen cackling about certain characters not getting their happy endings. "The battle of good versus evil rages on. For some, happily ever after is in sight. For others, this could be the final chapter." That could be describing any season. What's so important about this season where people should tune in? Why not tease a big event like a proposal, wedding, or death? 

When you play an ad for 32.9 million viewers, you're not trying to target the extremely small portion of loyal viewers who still watch the show because those people will tune in no matter what. Instead, this should have been ABC's last ditch effort to try and bring back any casual viewers who have quit the show. But the promo they played was so vague and uninspiring that it actually turned me off from wanting to tune in, and I'm definitely a loyal viewer. There's only so much you can cram into 15 seconds, but this was an opportunity to intrigue people about what's to come. ABC could have gone an entirely different route and made an ad that focused more on grabbing the casual viewer's attention instead of rehashing the words of a previous OUAT promo.

Rather than trying to quickly sum up the show in 15 seconds, have an ad that plays along with the Oscar spirit. Have a limousine pull up, drop off a Hollywood person onto the red carpet, and then behind the limousine enters a royal fairy tale carriage. Out of the carriage, the main OUAT cast steps onto the red carpet: Snow, Charming, Emma, Hook, Regina, and Belle are all dressed in their Enchanted Forest garb. They get strange looks from the red carpet crowd at first, but then the cameras point and shoot at them. If there's time left, have Snow say, "I don't think we're in Storybrooke anymore." Done. 15 seconds. Have the deep-voiced announcer guy say that OUAT returns next Sunday. Or have Hook and Emma sitting on their couch, drinking wine, and filling out Oscar prediction sheets as the Oscars play on their television. Show off Hook's hook to remind viewers this is a fairy tale show. Hook asks, "Why is this ritual such a big thing in your realm? And what's the difference between sound mixing and sound editing anyways?" Emma shushes him as the television announces an Oscar winner. "Yes! Got another one." "Once Upon a Time returns this Sunday." Done. 15 seconds. Those ads have nothing to do with what's happening in Season 6, but it's a lot more memorable and intriguing than the ad they played last night. (Also, considering I know most of what's going to happen in 6B, it's probably best to not inform people about the plot at this point.) ABC already has an OUAT promo that's been playing for the past few weeks saying the exact same thing as the Evil Queen Oscar ad, so why not play along with the demographic of people who are watching the Oscars and make an ad that's more viral?

Oscar viewership also skews more towards women. When you're targeting women, did ABC not think to feature Charming or Hook in the ad? I keep thinking of ABC's Time After Time ads which seem like they're just straight up man-candy visuals. I just don't see how featuring a crazy-eyed Regina throwing a fireball at the camera was the best option for an expensive Oscar ad, especially since OUAT's gamble to feature two Reginas this season has backfired on them.

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32 minutes ago, Curio said:

Out of the carriage, the main OUAT cast steps onto the red carpet: Snow, Charming, Emma, Hook, Regina, and Belle are all dressed in their Enchanted Forest garb. They get strange looks from the red carpet crowd at first, but then the cameras point and shoot at them. If there's time left, have Snow say, "I don't think we're in Storybrooke anymore." Done. 15 seconds.

This ad would have been amazing! If I had never even seen the show and saw this ad I would think about tuning in - it reminds you that it's actually fun and brings back the theme of fairytale characters in the real world which the show has totally lost.

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That ad was so generic and campy. I think A&E have given up. They've realized the Show is not getting renewed as is (or if). So, why not double and triple down on what they really like writing and promoting--Regina and Evil Queen and more Regina?

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41 minutes ago, Curio said:

Oscar viewership also skews more towards women. When you're targeting women, did ABC not think to feature Charming or Hook in the ad?

That was exactly what I was thinking. The viewership for the Oscars is heavily female, so why not focus on the man candy and romance? Or even the identifiable Disney figures?

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2 hours ago, Curio said:

So, this OUAT ad played during the Oscars last night.

So what did ABC/OUAT decide to do? They featured a cheesy, scene-chewing, 15-second ad of the Evil Queen cackling about certain characters not getting their happy endings. "The battle of good versus evil rages on. For some, happily ever after is in sight. For others, this could be the final chapter." That could be describing any season.

That is the closest promo they could have made promoting the final season without actually saying it.  It makes no sense in context of what is happening on the show right now. And the happily ever after is also the final chapter of a fairy tale.  So the "for others this could be the final chapter" makes no sense.  They had to have picked that phrasing unintentionally because network stuff (actors leaving or reboot or cancellation) is on the brain.

Its actually quite strange that they are showing promos that are so careless about leaving the show's future open to interpretation.  I was thinking about all the articles talking about how networks don't even announce that new failed shows are cancelled these days and instead just "reduce the episode order". 

Why would they come out with statements on possible reboots and wrapping up stories and a couple "final chapter" promos when they won't even say a new show has been cancelled?

And it struck me that maybe this is the new evolution of being scared to outright proclaim that a new show has been cancelled. 

Maybe they are moving towards only half ass promoting final seasons of long running shows (saying it without saying it), wrapping up storylines, and setting up an ability to reboot at a lower cost just in case there is a scenario where they want to continue on the cheap with less hurdles to other platforms/networks.  

So maybe ABC has outright decided to cancel this from the Fall schedule and the reboot scenario is more about creating an option to sell the show to another network (like Freeform) or a streaming service just in case there is interest.  They probably learned some things about renegotiating when they moved Nashville to CMT.

Edited by ParadoxLost
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Not Once, but ABC: Modern Family is wrapping its season on Friday, the cast isn't contracted for next season and negotiations haven't even started. Sounds like it being produced by another studio is making it difficult. But I'd be shocked if they didn't work it out.

That "specially shot" promo was awful. Maybe they have some magic internal focus-group feedback that the EQ is super-duper-popular (which somehow doesn't translate to ratings), or maybe the Channing regime has a case of the Regina perma-boner, but it was really weak.

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1 hour ago, Rumsy4 said:

That ad was so generic and campy. I think A&E have given up. They've realized the Show is not getting renewed as is (or if). So, why not double and triple down on what they really like writing and promoting--Regina and Evil Queen and more Regina?

As much as I blame A&E for their crap writing, you have to remember that they don't have much say in ABC's promotion of the show. ABC was the one who likely chose the Regina angle, not A&E, and ABC is the one who decided what to slot in their promo spots for the Oscars. Time After Time got plenty of promo last night, which you would expect for a show that's going to premiere in the Oscar time slot next Sunday. Once got a promo, which -- let's be honest -- is what you would expect for a show that's been around for six seasons and has had ratings level off. Sure, it was generic and campy, but it was cheap. That was the Oscars ad budget ABC decided on for Once. There's not much more upside for Once ratings so why would ABC spend valuable ad time and money on a veteran show?

The [previous two seasons, the show has had big events to hang promo parties on -- the red carpet event for Frozen in season 4 and the 100th episode in season 5. We don't have something like that this year, and that's OK. But then we have to adjust our expectations for promotions and advertising accordingly. There are still going to be plenty of articles previewing the winter premiere. Natalie Abrams solicited questions from Reddit for hers, Leanne is teasing some revealing interviews from a set visit for tomorrow. And there will still be ads and sneak previews and reviews from the usual television folks. Promo photos have been out for weeks and the press preview was made available with plenty of time for the media to watch it before the premiere.

I know I'm sounding like Positive Polly again, but I think without the show on the air, we've all swung negative and forgotten some key things that have been proven time and time again: we call them ABC Promo Monkeys for a reason. We know there are probably people in the promo department who don't actually watch the show. We know A&E, for all their faults, don't have control over ABC's advertising and promotion. And we know that this is a veteran show in its final or penultimate season and will be treated as such.

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14 hours ago, sharky said:

As much as I blame A&E for their crap writing, you have to remember that they don't have much say in ABC's promotion of the show. ABC was the one who likely chose the Regina angle, not A&E, and ABC is the one who decided what to slot in their promo spots for the Oscars.

When it comes to random clips the ABC editing team splices together to make the "Next Week on OUAT..." promos, then yes, Adam & Co. don't have much say there. But this was a scripted 15-second ad where ABC had to work with A&E and Lana so that she could take time out of her schedule to film it. Adam tweeted "We shot it special for tonight." The "we" makes it sound like Adam had a hand in creating the ad, which means A&E probably had some influence in choosing the Evil Queen to be the focus.

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6 hours ago, Curio said:

When it comes to random clips the ABC editing team splices together to make the "Next Week on OUAT..." promos, then yes, Adam & Co. don't have much say there. But this was a scripted 15-second ad where ABC had to work with A&E and Lana so that she could take time out of her schedule to film it. Adam tweeted "We shot it special for tonight." The "we" makes it sound like Adam had a hand in creating the ad, which means A&E probably had some influence in choosing the Evil Queen to be the focus.

Exactly, they're the ones who came up with the Regina/EQ season to begin with.

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42 minutes ago, Souris said:

Gotta guess ABC isn't too happy with the first-night ratings for When We Rise. They seem to having a real problem creating buzz for anything. We'll see what happens with Time After Time, but based on their current state, I'm not expecting much.

The good news is When We Rise is a four-part miniseries so it's not going to be a lasting issue. The bad news is an "event series" like that would've been a great place to put ads for its upcoming Sunday line-up. Not that they were giving Once much help before, but it's less now.

Cancel Bear still has AoS as a toss-up but only barely. They're pulling around a 0.6 for the past few weeks, which is a series low for them. If Once can maintain a 0.9-1.0 level, they will be in a much better position to fight for renewal. But I really think the next few weeks are going to be make or break for them depending on how well the ratings do. They're in a much better position than AoS based on where they left off in ratings so at least we have that. It'll be interesting to see if their ratings can stabilize.

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(edited)

OUAT premieres in less than a week and no one has seemed to notice. LOL. I haven't seen anyone show any enthusiasm, much less even mention it. That's pretty sad.

Edited by KingOfHearts
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3 minutes ago, KingOfHearts said:

OUAT premieres in less than a week and no one has seemed to notice. LOL. I haven't seen anyone show any enthusiasm, much less even mention it. That's pretty sad.

There were several calls by TV writers for questions for A&E, so apparently they're going to be doing a bunch of interviews that will probably be published at the end of this week. But I don't know how many viewers actually see those.

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10 minutes ago, KingOfHearts said:

OUAT premieres in less than a week and no one has seemed to notice. LOL. I haven't seen anyone show any enthusiasm, much less even mention it. That's pretty sad.

The premiere snuck up on me and I've been active on these boards the entire hiatus. I can't even imagine what the casual viewer is thinking. What was there to even look forward to? Robin Hood? That's it?

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1 hour ago, KingOfHearts said:

OUAT premieres in less than a week and no one has seemed to notice. LOL. I haven't seen anyone show any enthusiasm, much less even mention it. That's pretty sad.

 

54 minutes ago, Curio said:

The premiere snuck up on me and I've been active on these boards the entire hiatus. I can't even imagine what the casual viewer is thinking. What was there to even look forward to? Robin Hood? That's it?

Yeah, that was my problem when S6a ended, there was nothing to look forward to.

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(edited)
Quote

Yeah, that was my problem when S6a ended, there was nothing to look forward to.

Even before the 6A premiere, there was buzz at least on these boards. Now it's like, "Oh I guess it's that time again."

Edited by KingOfHearts
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1 hour ago, KingOfHearts said:

Even before the 6A premiere, there was buzz at least on these boards. Now it's like, "Oh I guess it's that time again."

I just put up my Evil Queen lawn ornaments, spread lucky Robin Hood feathers all over the floor and unfurled the "We need to save Agrabah" banner across the living room.  I should have my Gideon costume finished by tomorrow and will be all ready for Sunday.

I looked at what we were posting in this thread about a year ago, and "Once" was renewed last year on March 3.  That's three days from now.  The 5B premiere experienced lower than expected ratings, so Chicken Little was in here for a bit.

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On 2/27/2017 at 8:59 PM, Souris said:

Not Once, but ABC: Modern Family is wrapping its season on Friday, the cast isn't contracted for next season and negotiations haven't even started. Sounds like it being produced by another studio is making it difficult. But I'd be shocked if they didn't work it out.

That "specially shot" promo was awful. Maybe they have some magic internal focus-group feedback that the EQ is super-duper-popular (which somehow doesn't translate to ratings), or maybe the Channing regime has a case of the Regina perma-boner, but it was really weak.

ABC and 20th have been negotiating for almost two months and it's not going well.  Frankly, 20th is being ridiculous.  A lot of stakeholders are going to lose a lot of money if 20th doesny pull its head out of its ass.  

On a related note, its now March and there has still not been one word between ABC and ABC Studios about renewing Once.  

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13 minutes ago, cappoe said:

I'm still of the opinion this is the last season. Ratings stand at a 0.9. There's no way it will stay that way throughout the entirety of 6B. It will drop and will probably get to the level of cancellation. It's naive to think it'll stay steady. It never has.

It depends on when ABC makes that determination and what the ratings are at that point. I don't think they've made a decision to cancel it yet, though, or they'd be touting it as the "final episodes!" I wouldn't be surprised if they're waiting to see 1) the ratings for the spring premiere and/or 2) whether Jen re-signs and/or 3) how their pilots turn out.

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If they tout it as the final season before it even begins, very few people will tune in. I do think that renewal/cancellation will depend on the ratings for the first couple of return episodes more than anything else. 

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And remember that their other shows that have come back have been even worse than Once ratings, especially AoS. Once is sitting in a weird spot for a drama right between AoS, which is so close to cancelled, and How to Get Away, which got renewed. The next few weeks will be very telling.

I'm also starting to wonder about the casting spoilers that have come out. Spoilering it below just in case.

Spoiler

With the spoilers about casting a girl and a 20-something man in the season finale, I wonder if there's another option to create a Henry/author-centric spinoff and run it on Freeform. ABC could sort of cancel Once but still keep some characters around and Freeform would get a new show. WIth the success that Nashville seems to be having on CMT, I could see ABC using Once as a way to get more viewers to a new Freeform show.

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1 hour ago, Rumsy4 said:

If they tout it as the final season before it even begins, very few people will tune in. 

I don't know, I think they could potentially see an increase in ratings if they tout Season 7 as the final season because older viewers might be curious about where the story has gone or new viewers could be intrigued by the new premise. I doubt Season 7 could keep up the increased ratings, but I could see the first few episodes actually improving upon Season 6's premiere numbers.

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(edited)

Strange I totally change my idea about the renewal every days.

But, the fact that Eddy ask for fans their help to have a season 7.

Its a big red flag the writers of timeless did that move too because there very little chance its show will be back.

Edited by maryle
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yeah i change my mind everyday on whether or not there's going to be a S7 or even if I want another season or not.  I love Emma and Hook, but if the potential premise of a S7 is that Emma and Hook somehow lose their happy ending well then I have no interest in watching it.  But on the other hand I don't think Jmo would sign up to a S7 unless she was guaranteed that Emma was going to get her happy ending.  So basically I'm going to wait and see what happens but a big part of me wants the story to end in S6.

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I'm being optimistic for now. A big part of getting it renewed will be ratings and we don't have those yet. I think by the end of March, we'all have a much clearer picture.

I'm not reading too much into Eddy's comment about asking ABC for a season 7. Any showrunner without a renewal in hand would do that. I've been a fan of shows where showrunners did this and had two more seasons. And of course I've seen showrunners do that and get nothing.

i just hope they're given some room to really tie things up if they're not getting renewed and not having ABC wait until the last minute. 

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I think the begging is a sign. I think it shows that ABC doesn't have faith in the show nor in Adam and Eddy's idea for S7. And once they see the ratings for the first couple of episodes cancellation will be justified because there's no way the show is going to sustain it's 0.9 the entire 12 episodes left.

I hope they get a heads up that it's the end but I kind of think they do already know but are trying to remain hopeful.

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(edited)

ABC is putting together two different schedule boards for next season, one with ModFam and one without, and strangely on both boards Sunday is completely blank from 8-11 after AFV.  

It looks like the only things they've (un)offically locked in that The Middle, AFV, Grey's, Scandal, and Murder will all return in their current slots.  

Edited by Tiger
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I love the Oscar promo..damn Parrilla still rocks those outfits and 30 seconds is about as much as you can take of the EQ camping it up...( I love Parilla's face when she mentions..happy endings...and I can never get enough of the EQ's BWAHAHAHA cackle laugh...)  But it does seem they are doing a bit of a bait and switch...making people believe its the end so they tune in? I would have loved it if they had set up this whole season as the last one and the actual "Final Battle" that Rump was talking about in S1 and it would then make sense to bring the EQ back for that (and for the rest of the various characters left in SB that we havent seen or heard from in a while like Maleificent..to pick sides..) but as it is, its like they are trying to trick people into watching.

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1 hour ago, Tiger said:

ABC is putting together two different schedule boards for next season, one with ModFam and one without, and strangely on both boards Sunday is completely blank from 8-11 after AFV.  

As if we needed any more indication that this show is done...

Seriously, they've heard A&E's pitch for S7, yet they still aren't including OUAT in the schedule boards.  And as said above, there is no way the ratings are going to be good upon the show's return tomorrow, not when there is such an extreme lack of interest even among most of the fanbase.  

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(edited)

How is leaving Sundays blank considered strange? Probably the only thing most of us have agreed on here is that the ratings for the next few weeks are going to be a big part of whether the show gets cancelled or renewed. Plus, Time After Time has its debut on Sunday. The performance of those two shows could make the Sunday schedule much clearer for ABC in a month. I think the big issue is how much of Once's audience is a core audience at this point vs. general audience that may not come back after this hiatus. Monday afternoon is going to be VERY interesting.

Quote

Seriously, they've heard A&E's pitch for S7, yet they still aren't including OUAT in the schedule boards.  And as said above, there is no way the ratings are going to be good upon the show's return tomorrow, not when there is such an extreme lack of interest even among most of the fanbase. 

I don't think A&E's pitch is that big of a factor in this. A factor, sure, but ratings are still king. People have been saying that this is the best season AoS has had in awhile, but the ratings aren't there to justify a renewal of that show. Story can only get you so far if viewers don't stay around. I do think the fanbase is finally starting to get enthusiastic now that we're closer to the premiere -- we've had plenty of debates here, tumblr, and Twitter for example this week. But again, how much of the audience is a core audience that will stick around no matter what? That's going to be a big factor when the ratings come out on Monday.

Edited by sharky
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2 minutes ago, Camera One said:

Are they waiting for the ratings before negotiating with the cast?

I don't think anyone really knows but speculation is that negotiations have been underway in case they do renew. And Lana, Colin and Emilie have contracts that cover a season 7 so there's no need for them to negotiate new deals.

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(edited)

As I said, the odds of solid enough ratings upon the show's return are slim to none.  Not only has the general audience lost interest in the show overall, but so has a large portion of the core fanbase.  S5 was already divisive and the 5B premiere scored weaker ratings than the 5A finale.  S6 has been even worse, so...well, you do the math.  I know some people on these boards don't want to hear this, but we're looking at the end here.

Edited by Mathius
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It's strange because for every other slot they are either locking in programming or identifying alternate options.  For example, The Middle is locked into Tue at 800, but American Housewife, Fresh Off the Boat, and black-ish are all alternatives for Tue at 900.

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(edited)

The BTS rumors that they want a complete Sunday night revamp are looking more likely to be true.  And again I must stress that they have already heard A&E's S7 pitch at this point.  A&E and Eduardo Castro have both confirmed that ABC still hasn't gotten back to them about it, and now we have this news.  I agree that they're waiting for the ratings to come in before making it official, but they, just like we, already know exactly how the ratings are most likely to look.  There is no incentive whatsoever to keep this show, so at this point let's just hope and prey that the series finale is decent.

Edited by Mathius
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19 hours ago, Mathius said:

I know some people on these boards don't want to hear this, but we're looking at the end here.

Don't want to hear?? As I've said before, I think we all understand the position the show is in. I think some people are just excited by the possibility of cancellation and are going overboard. In case of cancellation, I hope we can be spared the "told you so" comments as if, again, we didn't already know the possibility was there; you didn't know any more or less than we did and you still don't.

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