Season 41 & 42: Spoilers and Speculation

[LadyChatts]

15 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

If next week's preview is any indication, I can see where Erika wins if the final 3 are Deshawn / Erika / Xander. 

I also see where Xander gets zero votes.  Deshawn probably gets Danny, and Erika will get Heather, Evvie, and Tiffany.  Naseer, Liana, Shan, and Ricard I’m up in the air with, although I think Naseer votes for Erika.  The other 3 definitely aren't voting for Xander.

ETA: So will there be only 8 jurors?  So Xander would have the tie breaking vote if Liana, Shan, and Ricard vote Deshawn and causes a 4-4 tie, but I think Ricard may for for Erika.

Edited December 2, 2021 by LadyChatts

[anthonyd46]

On 11/18/2021 at 5:22 PM, Tippi said:

Who could Xander play the social game with?  The yellow team was out to get the men out pronto.  How could Xander trust Evvie and Tiffany?  Even if he had played his idol for Evvie or Tiffany, they showed no loyalty to him.  He can't get in the Ricard/Shan twosome, or the Cook Out Group.  He might have a chance with Erika/Heather, plus Ricard at some point will have to realize he is the fifth wheel on the four person alliance. 

Yea I think people are underestimating Xander's chances. We are seeing nothing that spoiler said so I think they are just trying to hide Xander's win. Erika looks like she is going to fall short. Keep Ricard around was not the best move for her, because she has no power so she could easily get taken out if 3 people are immune next TC. 

I don't buy pretty much anything from that last post of the spoilers. Xander with 0 votes makes no sense right now and he a really good speech at TC tonight that Danny even gave him a compliment on.

[ProfCrash]

I can see Xander getting zero votes. I don't think he is actually being included in any strategy and that he is included only as a vote.

Xanders biggest play was denying Liana the use of her advantage but that was not just Xander, that was Xander, Evvie, and Tiffany. If anything, Xander risked that play by telling Danny, and by default Liana, about Liana's advantage. That was not a solo move. Furthermore, it is not likely to get him a vote from Evvie since Xander did not use the idol to save Evvie.

Xander did not devise the plan to vote out Tiffany or Evvie. Nor did he do anything to try and prevent them from being out.

Xander did not devise the plan to vote Shan, that was Ricard. And Erika was the one who thought about splitting the vote between Shan and Liana.

Xander did not come up with the plan to vote out Liana.

Xander sat out a competition to get rice for people and gave Erika his shot to play for reward. Both are transparent grabs for votes.

Xander won an immunity and has been close to winning others. Not a surprise, he is expected to win challenges based on his athletic skill. Nice but it is not like he has a streak going on.

Xander has no allies. Heather and Erika have been allied for a while. Ricard had Shan. Xander has no one. His current group is more a coalition against the known alliance.

Who on the sitting jury would vote for Xander? Not Shan or Liana. Probably not Evvie or Tiffany because Xander ditched them both at the merge. He didn't talk to them or explain what he did or why, he just stopped talking to them. And it gained him nothing. No idea about Nasser but I don't have one good reason why Nasser would vote for Xander.

I think that Xander is the first goat with an immunity idol.

 

[LadyChatts]

The only people I can see voting for Xander are Deshawn and Danny.  But if one of them is in the final 3, they will likely get the other persons vote.  There’s at least 3 jurors now who I don’t see voting for Xander-Evvie, Liana, and Shan.  I really don’t think Naseer would vote for Xander over Erika or maybe even Deshawn and Danny. I just don’t see how Xander wins.  He really doesn’t have any good moves.  The whole tricking Liana thing he can actually thank Tiffany for, who can thank Shan for opening her big mouth.  But beyond that he hasn’t really had any strong showing or edit since the beginning of the season.  It was clear Evvie wanted to do an all-girls things, but Xander was her back up plan.
 

I think the spoiler about Erika winning and we see her game play coming on late is coming true so far.  If not Erika, then I think Deshawn or Ricard have the next best chances of winning.  

Edited December 2, 2021 by LadyChatts

[TVFan1]

3 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

The only people I can see voting for Xander are Deshawn and Danny.  But if one of them is in the final 3, they will likely get the other persons vote.  There’s at least 3 jurors now who I don’t see voting for Xander-Evvie, Liana, and Shan.  I really don’t think Naseer would vote for Xander over Erika or maybe even Deshawn and Danny. I just don’t see how Xander wins.  He really doesn’t have any good moves.  The whole tricking Liana thing he can actually thank Tiffany for, who can thank Shan for opening her big mouth.  But beyond that he hasn’t really had any strong showing or edit since the beginning of the season.  It was clear Evvie wanted to do an all-girls things, but Xander was her back up plan.
 

I think the spoiler about Erika winning and we see her game play coming on late is coming true so far.  If not Erika, then I think Deshawn or Ricard have the next best chances of winning.  

Has there been anything about possibly Danny or Ricard winning it all? Ricard has the best chance if he makes it to final 3. He beats whoever sits next to him.

[LadyChatts]

20 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

Has there been anything about possibly Danny or Ricard winning it all? Ricard has the best chance if he makes it to final 3. He beats whoever sits next to him.

So far I’ve only seen Xander as a final 3 loser, with final 3 combos of Erika/Deshawn/Heather. And of course the now debunked rumor of Tiffany.  At this point though I suppose Danny or Ricard winning isn’t a reach.  I would just be very shocked if Xander pulled it off, especially in a season that’s been pushing the diversity narrative.  Then to just have some 20 something white guy win.  Not saying it couldn’t happen, but putting that aside, I just don’t see where Xander gets 4+ votes.

Edited December 2, 2021 by LadyChatts

[peachmangosteen]

You all are making me feel better. I was afraid this ep was signaling that Xander wins since it was kinda trying to present a narrative that Xander has actually done something when he has not lol. But like someone said in the ep thread, that was more likely to show how delusional he is.

I hope Xander makes F3 and thinks he's gonna have votes and everyone ignores him and it's clear he's actually a goat. It'd be funny!

[ProfCrash]

Liana’s Ponderosa includes an entire section with the ladies discussing being “Xander” as in being overly obsessed with taking out one person. Then there was a coconut throwing session that seemed to be a frustration release, somehow tied back to Xander. I would be shocked in Xander got any votes from the ladies at Ponderosa. 

Ricard has a huge target on his back. Xander, Heather, and Erika have the numbers to vote out Ricard and then Danny or DeShawn. I suspect that Ricard goes the next time he loses individual immunity.

Next week should see Danny or Ricard gone. Both are challenge threats and are in a good place for final tribal votes. DeShawn’s game has been messy so he is less of a final tribal threat.

[SVNBob]

No spoiler from the GwG this time, as next week is the final puzzle for that.

[LanceM]

On 11/11/2021 at 4:45 PM, LadyChatts said:

Again, take it for what it's worth. Also, it's in the comments that this person (I assume it's who they are talking about) changed some prediction after Brad got voted off because they were wrong.  So again, we'll see :)  

 

This "discredited" spoiler now looks like it could be a possibility. Not sure when it was orginally posted on reddit

[anthonyd46]

1 hour ago, LanceM said:

 

This "discredited" spoiler now looks like it could be a possibility. Not sure when it was orginally posted on reddit

This guy has a boot list with like 8 wrong spots plus if Erika and heather were final 3 together they would have showed them aligning way sooner.

the original spoiler was brad Ricard heather 

Edited December 6, 2021 by anthonyd46

[LadyChatts]

Totally buying the Erika/Deshawn/Xander final 3, and can see how the two guys lose.  I’m surprised Deshawn gets any votes besides Danny’s.  
 

The only other person left I can see winning is Ricard, and he hasn’t been spoiled to make the final 3.  

[LanceM]

I see Ricard getting the Rick Devens edit from a few seasons ago. The player everyone know will win if he gets to the end but just falls short, probably losing the fire making challenge.

[TVFan1]

There was a rumor going around that Ricard loses the fire making challenge against Erika.

[phlebas]

10 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

There was a rumor going around that Ricard loses the fire making challenge against Erika.

DELETED nvm

Edited December 9, 2021 by phlebas

[Wildcard]

https://ew.com/tv/survivor-41-danny-mccray-interview/

Quote

I think a lot of people are watching and they're like, "How is nobody making a move on Xander with that idol of his?" Why weren't you guys making a move on him? I realize there were a lot of threats out there, but why weren't you all trying harder to get Xander out?

If you watch the jury and you hear what people say about him, a lot of people did not respect the game that he was playing. A lot of people thought that when he stepped out of the challenges that it was for show and it wasn't because he really cared. So as the game goes on, you're like, "This guy is not an issue. Why are we worried about the idol? A lot of people want to go sit at the end with Xander so they can explain how they played a better game than he did." So it just became a non-issue, which is why I went to him and [said], "Hey, we need to vote out Heather." We never thought about voting Xander at this last Tribal Council because he's a good guy to take to the end and he can also help us beat Ricard. So it would have worked out for us two times.

Just adds to the speculation that Xander gets 0 votes.

[ProfCrash]

12 minutes ago, Wildcard said:

https://ew.com/tv/survivor-41-danny-mccray-interview/

Just adds to the speculation that Xander gets 0 votes.

Pretty much how I read the situation

[peachmangosteen]

I'm glad to see Danny spell it out so precisely. I hope they make that clear when (I guess if but it seems pretty definitive at this point) Xander loses because otherwise there are going to be a lot of viewers claiming Xander was robbed and it's gonna be annoying lol.

[LadyChatts]

That’s what Tiffany said, that no one was impressed by his move of sitting out the challenge.  
 

It’s gonna be pretty amusing that Xander is going to go to the final 3 and probably think he has a great chance of winning and is slowly defeated.  

[Tippi]

I'm not looking forward to Xander getting humiliated.  He's very young, and comes across even younger.  He's not much of a schemer and always had to play the game from the outside.  There's no one on the jury as it stands right now who deserves to win over him, except possibly for Shan or Danny.  Danny is handsome and likeable, but he was able to coast through on Luvu and once the Erika twist came into play his game was pretty much shot.  At this point I'm hoping for a Ricard win.

[ProfCrash]

We are not seeing everything that happened out there and we all know that. There is some element of Xander’s game that we are missing or not being shown. 

He is the archetype of someone who should be a threat to win. He is a good competitor, seems smart enough, seems likable, and seems to have done enough that you would think would win but he has clearly been ignored or overlooked in the game. 

I don’t think that he has done that much in the game and I think he has made some pretty big missteps in the game. I don’t know what happened at the yellow beach, if the all women’s alliance was in play early enough that all the men on the tribe were relegated to targets or if Xander did something off enough to isolate him from Liana and Tiffany. Eevie was willing to forge a secondary alliance with Xander for numbers but she never wanted him as her number 1. 

He never found an alliance to work with at the merge. He fell into the four he is in now out of necessity then them really wanting to work with him. 

His sitting out for rice and to let Tiffany play were seen 100% as jury management and not anything else. 

He seems like a good guy who is not an asshole. He seems harmless. But he has not chance of winning this game.

[LadyChatts]

I don’t think Xander is going to get humiliated.  Based on the spoilers, my feeling is he’s going into the final 3 confident in his game, but is going to get shot down about the moves he’s trying to take credit for not being his (this could apply to Deshawn, too, if Evvie gives her soap box speech about women not getting credit over men in this game).  I also think, based on things said about him in interviews, that he didn’t have a strong social game and wasn’t aware of where he really stood with people.  If anything I feel they are setting him up for a second chance down the road.  
 

Truthfully the only one I can say I feel deserves to win at this point is Ricard.  Erika will be a nice but likely forgettable winner by the time next season rolls around, if she really does pull it off.  I could probably say the same about the rest of the group.  I think those who’ve already been voted off will be more memorable than the finale group for me, besides Ricard.

Edited December 10, 2021 by LadyChatts

[SVNBob]

After skipping last week, the final puzzle of the Game within the Game gives a pretty big spoiler.  Namely, that said final puzzle will be in the show proper.

For those that didn't play along all season, the GwG was in two parts each week.  The first part was the rebus that appeared in every episode.  Solving that led to a word scramble puzzle, where you had to unscramble a jumbled group of letters into a word.  And solving each of those led to the spoilery "strategy test" videos as I brought up throughout the season, along with a reminder you'd need the letters for the final puzzle.

This week was that final puzzle, and that's when Peachy dropped the final twist.  We didn't need the words, but just the letters exactly as said.  It was a mega-jumble.  They did give clues as to which letters went together and the order for the final solution.  In the end, the final phrase was:

"Your Treasure Hangs Where The Trees Love To Dance."

After finally solving that, the final GwG video revealed that that puzzle, with that solution, will be in the finale.  Plus, in the interstitial video after the rebus, Peachy mentioned roleplaying as if you were a member of the F5, and that solving this puzzle first would lead to an advantage.

Given the mad scramble on the beach we saw in the preview, I'm pretty sure this puzzle is the lead-up to that,

[peachmangosteen]

14 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

It’s gonna be pretty amusing that Xander is going to go to the final 3 and probably think he has a great chance of winning and is slowly defeated.  

I'm excited for it lol.

[LanceM]

Xander was acting rater cocky in the preview next week so yeah I think they going to be setting him up for a fall.

[anthonyd46]

4 minutes ago, LanceM said:

Xander was acting rater cocky in the preview next week so yeah I think they going to be setting him up for a fall.

I mean it's also just a preview and we need to see the context.

[LanceM]

1 minute ago, anthonyd46 said:

I mean it's also just a preview and we need to see the context.

when has that ever stopped us from speculating!

[LadyChatts]

24 minutes ago, LanceM said:

Xander was acting rater cocky in the preview next week so yeah I think they going to be setting him up for a fall.

I was thinking the same thing when I saw the preview for next week.  If Xander gets portrayed as overly cocky and arrogant then I'll say it's over for him.  Unless the show is really trying to hide a Xander victory, I just don't see how he has a path to the win.  If it is a Deshawn/Xander/Erika final 3, I think Deshawn has a better chance of winning than Xander.  He at least has Danny's vote.  I don't see enough of Heather, Ricard, Shan, Liana, Evvie, Tiffany, and Naseer voting for Xander to give him the win.

I'll again say that with the narrative this season has had I really don't think Xander is winning.  Erika, with her edit, is kind of a surprising choice, but it does go along with that one spoiler that her game came out late.  Maybe they'll show more in flashbacks next week.  

[peachmangosteen]

33 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

Maybe they'll show more in flashbacks next week.  

With there being no reunion so an actual 3 hour finale, I’m thinking they’re going to do this because that’s a lot of time to kill.

[LanceM]

There is a reunion of sorts but not in front of a live audience. I think they filmed it on the island.

[Nashville]

54 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

If it is a Deshawn/Xander/Erika final 3, I think Deshawn has a better chance of winning than Xander.  He at least has Danny's vote.  I don't see enough of Heather, Ricard, Shan, Liana, Evvie, Tiffany, and Naseer voting for Xander to give him the win.

In a Deshawn/Xander/Erika F3 I think Deshawn would have a lock on votes from Danny and Liana, and probably Shan and Heather - Shan isn’t going to publicly go against the AA4, and Heather would probably feel pressure to follow through on her “Look at me, I’m all wokey now” THs.  That’s 4 votes for Deshawn; 1 more would be a guaranteed lock, and the 4 would still be sufficient if there’s more than 1 vote’s degree of splitting the remainder between Xander and Erika.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Nashville
Expansion

[LadyChatts]

19 minutes ago, Nashville said:

In a Deshawn/Xander/Erika F3 I think Deshawn would have a lock on votes from Danny and Liana, and probably Shan and Heather - Shan isn’t going to publicly go against the AA4, and Heather would probably feel pressure to follow through on her “Look at me, I’m all wokey now” THs.  That’s 4 votes for Deshawn; 1 more would be a guaranteed lock, and the 4 would still be sufficient if there’s more than 1 vote’s degree of splitting the remainder between Xander and Erika.

I feel like Heather may follow the pack.  She could very well be the deciding vote by default, simply seeing half the jury voting for one person, half for the other, so her vote could decide the winner.  But if she saw the majority going for one person she may just jump on the bandwagon.  

I honestly consider Shan and Liana (to a lesser extent) kind of wild cards.  While I think they would lean towards Deshawn, Shan seemed kind of bitter to Danny at first.  I also think, based off of last week, Deshawn may open his mouth and say all the wrong things that turns people in the jury against him.  However, I do think it'd be strange that Liana and Shan would vote for Erika, unless one or both of them was still good and mad at Deshawn that a vote for Erika was more a vote against him.

I think Erika could get Heather, Naseer, and Evvie, and maybe Tiffany.  I also don't know if I see Ricard voting for Deshawn, so that could be it for Erika.  I just don't see who would vote for Xander at this point, but if it is an Erika/Deshawn combo, I don't know how it'd go.  

Edited December 11, 2021 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

I am not sure that DeShawn gets Shan or Liana’s vote. I think that they blame DeShawn for their ouster and the fall of the AA4 and I can see them holding that against DeShawn. I can also see them voting for DeShawn but slamming him in their comments. I can see them voting for Erika because of her game and justifying it as a female Asian player, so a minority.

I am not sure who Nasser votes for. I don’t think he was close to any of the remaining players but he played more closely with DeShawn. But he might appreciate Erika and Heather’s game play voting him out and vote Erika.

Danny votes for DeShawn

Evvie and Tiffany vote for Erika

Ricard votes for Erika. He has said in interviews on the show he doesn’t like DeShawn’s game play and that it is too random. I can see Ricard appreciating Erika’s strategic game play.

Heather votes for Erika

So I see Erika with 4 votes and DeShawn with 1 with 3 not so certain. 

If DeShawn gets to remaining 3, then Xander votes and I have no clue how Xander would vote. 

[HurricaneVal]

I'm hoping they do show flashbacks to show turning points in the game.  Turning points that maybe the editors didn't know when editing that episode, but which came out later.  It could go something like one of the castaways saying something at the "reunion" like "...and at that moment, when we were walking back after the reward challenge, when he looked at me and nodded, I knew the vote had to go this way."  Then the editing team frantically searches through the footage, finds what was assumed to be an inconsequential nod, and then shows that pivotal moment in the broadcast.  I think that would be really interesting.  Especially if they show moments of casual conversation that turned out to be extremely important later.  Someone babbling on, not realizing they're giving some key piece of information away, then someone else listening getting that "aha!" moment.