Here's Your Tinfoil Hat; What's Your Conspiracy Theory?

[henripootel]

Spencer didn't ask Jeff about it. He had a confessional where he specifically said that he didn't ask Jeff but that he should have.

I'm never sure what to make of these things.  I suppose we could take Spencer 'at his word' were it not for the fact that these are the highly-selected, edited-for-narrative words.  I perused Spencer's AMA on Reddit (which he did with Tony) and he's oddly coy in some spots.  He didn't answer lots of questions (no time I'd expect) but one or two folks asked him just how 'fooled' he was by Tony's HII ruse and he didn't respond.  

 

He did say something odd - that Woo wasn't well-liked among the other cast even though you'd never know it from the edit he got.  He seems to refer to Woo doing something shady but refused to go into specifics saying 'production probably wouldn't like it' if he did.  All fine and good, but here's Spencer months and months later and he's being fairly guarded about an issue that seems pretty minor.  And still toeing the line carefully.

 

So my guess: if production did get up to something and made Spencer play along, no way he'd own up to it publicly.  I guess we're left with our own judgement here but I for one find it almost impossible to believe that Spencer just didn't ask.  Everything was at stake, this is exactly the kind situation that could be cleared right up in two seconds, and precisely the sort of question they say contestants are free to ask about at any time.  And he didn't ask.  Sorry, I find it far easier to believe that he did ask and was told 'We can't tell you, and what's more, you never asked, got that?'  I know, tinfoil hat, but for my money Survivor is 'presumed game show' until evidence suggests otherwise.

Edited June 3, 2015 by henripootel

[henripootel]

Carried over from Season 31 Spoilers:

 

Eliza's pt was that just as Caramoan was rigged for Cockran (whom she dislikes), she thinks Cambodia is rigged for Spencer.

I could see this, and it makes sense out of something that puzzled me.  As far as we know, Spencer 'failed to press' production about the expiration date of Tony's Idol, to Tony's tremendous benefit and leading to Spencer getting the boot.  What seems more likely is that he did press and pointedly got no answer, but it was made clear to him that proceeding as if Tony's super-duper idol was still in play would get him a return invite, and possibly a strongly-stacked deck in his 'own season'.  

 

I have no proof for this but it would answer my lingering questions about Spencer's behavior in the game - how could he not ask?  How could they not give him a definitive answer?  Also after - Spencer seemed pretty pro-show and carefully parsing his words for a guy who apparently got a bit screwed in the game.  So maybe he didn't get screwed, he made a deal.

Edited October 4, 2015 by henripootel

[Way Wes Jr]

I have inferred that as part of the dynamic shift on Ta Keo, that Abi was allowed to choose between Spencer and Shirin to be eliminated.  BUT, everyone would have known that she'd choose Shirin.  I have to think that Jeff would have preferred to get rid of Spencer.  In post-show interviews, Shirin is claiming that she tried to get (Peih-Gee, Kelley, Kelly/and or Terry,) to see how shifty Jeff was and move the vote to him; he got wind of this and transferred the target to her.

 

Wouldn't have production, subtly or not, tried to convince Ta Keo to boot Shirin?  Not because they "owed him one," (see above,) but because they really wanted to have nine men and nine women approaching the upcoming tribe spit?

[KimberStormer]

henripootel, so many of your theories depend on a return game being a price above rubies, or at least above winning, which I find hard to understand.

[Way Wes Jr]

I don't know if they care about gender equity in these reshuffles.  Sometimes it's very lopsided, isn't it?  Don't they usually all just draw new buffs?  

They have, in previous seasons, had two bowls for tribes to choose from.  The more ... conspiracy theory minded ... among us have cited that as an example of the producers trying to put an "easy" tribe together for their favored player.  The generally accepted answer - Occam's Razor - is that Jeff has a male bowl and a female bowl, in order to keep things from being too lopsided.  This is what I'd expect from S31:E3, Jeff holding two bowls, each with nine eggs, presenting one to the male players and the other to the female.

[Hera]

If a player believes/knows s/he can't win, I can see how the offer of another crack at the game might be appealing and a reason to do what the producers want. It doesn't make sense for someone like Woo, deciding who to take to the end, unless he believed that Kass could also beat him and unless he thought he would be able to go all the way to the end again.

 

However, I'm not much for conspiracy theories. I think the producers do what they can to keep the game from being utterly predictable (tribe swaps, double-immunities, etc.), but I'll believe that they ask questions in such a way as to try to badger people to vote for one person over another only when I see unedited footage of them doing so. The fact that memory is imperfect and people are prone to confirmation bias means that I do not consider the claims of players good enough on this point. If you're kicking yourself for making a bad move and looking for someone to blame, chances are, you will remember all the questions the producers gave you about why you should or shouldn't vote a particular way, but won't remember the questions they asked about the moves you decided not to make (especially since the answers to the latter won't make it to air).

[henripootel]

If a player believes/knows s/he can't win, I can see how the offer of another crack at the game might be appealing and a reason to do what the producers want. 

Bingo.  This is pretty hard to see accurately because a) many players think they're gonna win no matter what, and b) some players may be more amenable to persuasion for a guest appearance.  One reason: for some, it seems pretty clear that appearing on tv is the prize, and Rob Mariano has showed just how much this can be worth.  I mean the million would be nice but a career in tv could be worth far more.

but I'll believe that they ask questions in such a way as to try to badger people to vote for one person over another only when I see unedited footage of them doing so.

What makes you think these guys need to be badgered?  These are hand-picked fame whores - you think they're not at all interested in what the producers want from them?  They surely know that the producers have absolute control over things important to players, indisputably, their edit and whether or not they get invited back.  The producers may be in somewhat control of other things too but these are hard to document because they'll never ever show us footage of them rigging things, even obliquely.  Shit, we hardly ever see any indication that these guys have near constant contact with PAs (and camera guys, sound guys, grips, ...), but they do.  

 

For these guys, I think a suggestion is probably more than enough, and we actually get to see some from time to time with Jeff at TC.  It's often phrased thusly: 'Person I Don't Like, does it ever bother you that Person I Do Like might think (lays out rationale for voting against person Jeff hates)".   I think is a wee bit more than just Jeff 'stirring the pot', and this is just the part we actually see.

Edited October 6, 2015 by henripootel

[henripootel]

It's funny, I was just reading this 2012 article, and I didn't notice til the end that it was written by Miss Alli of TWoP, and #10 is pretty similar to your example there.

It should be practically a quote but I haven't re-read that article in a while.  Outstanding article by the way - thanks for linking.

I can't see them rigging fan fav votes and TC votes straight out.  Or fixing challenges or tribes.

 

My guess is that the only things they don't do is flat-out stuff ballot boxes or rig challenges.  Anything just shy of this now, I'm less sure about.  It honestly never even crossed my mind that the Fan Favorite votes are what they seem to be.  I mean if the actual vote is what they want anyway, fine, but if not, no reason for them to 'honor' these.  

Edited October 6, 2015 by henripootel

[KimberStormer]

I don't think they need to stuff ballots.  The people who won the Fan Favorite were the people who got the edit.

[kikaha]

It's funny, I was just reading this 2012 article, and I didn't notice til the end that it was written by Miss Alli of TWoP, and #10 is pretty similar to your example there.  

http://www.npr.org/sections/monkeysee/2012/02/15/146916875/a-nerds-guide-to-what-jeff-probst-wont-tell-you-how-to-win-survivor

 

 

My reaction to the article is that it's an example of someone with too much time on their hands, belaboring the obvious.  I also don't agree with the author about #10 -- or at least I don't feel it influences the game in any meaningful way. 

[henripootel]

I don't think they need to stuff ballots.  The people who won the Fan Favorite were the people who got the edit.

Which is just another way of saying 'deck-stacking by the producers'.  As to ignoring the ballet counts - I've honestly heard nothing about this show in particular but didn't one of those American Idol shows get dinged for this a few years back?  Don't watch them but I seem to recall discussion at the time was that they don't actually need to abide by the viewer votes, and these are shows that supposedly determine their winners by them, yes?  Don't know if Survivor ignores them but this might establish precedence that they can ignore them if they want.  I didn't see the season but I seem to recall another brouhaha along these lines when Rupert won FF - loathed by viewers, loved by production, and 'won' in a landslide. 

Edited October 6, 2015 by henripootel

[loki567]

Rupert was not loathed by viewers though. It's hard to imagine it now because his reputation has taken a hit every time he's returned but during PI, Rupert was probably the most popular character in the show's history. The controversy was CBS shelling up an extra million specifically to give it to him and whether or not that ruined the competitive aspect of Survivor, if players would stop trying to win the game and just try to be the biggest fan-favorite character, etc.  

[NutMeg]

I don't think they need to stuff ballots.  The people who won the Fan Favorite were the people who got the edit.

Like KimberStormer, I think the only manipulation of viewers votes is via edit. We here are the minority, who analyse every single detail. The majority of the audience does not and is happy to buy what they are sold.

 

AND in a way that is why we are sometimes surprised by who votes for whom at TC - we don't get the edit to explain it ! But it doesn't mean it doesn't exist (or that the vote was 'sugested'), just that it didn't fit the narrative TPTB wanted to serve us. Hence the importance of the discussions we are having in these threads, because they help us go behind the appearance of what the edit is limiting the game to.  

[kikaha]

AND in a way that is why we are sometimes surprised by who votes for whom at TC - we don't get the edit to explain it ! But it doesn't mean it doesn't exist (or that the vote was 'sugested'), just that it didn't fit the narrative TPTB wanted to serve us.

 

TPTB should want to throw the audience off the scent, at least a bit.  They would want us surprised, even shocked sometimes.  i.e. it seems to me they might intentionally blindside us the viewers.  If we could easily predict how the votes would go, the show would lose interest. 

[ProfCrash]

I liked Rupert in his first season. He was fun, loud and enjoyable. After that, not so much. He worked to recreate that character and it was annoying. He had no flexability in his game. But I liked him in his first season.

 

I thought that they had a few seasons were a sponsor provided $1,000,000 fna favorite and then after that it dropped to $100,000 and now it is gone.

 

Russell won that silly award and then it seemed to go away....

[Eolivet]

As to ignoring the ballet counts - I've honestly heard nothing about this show in particular but didn't one of those American Idol shows get dinged for this a few years back?

 

It would be interesting if they ever got caught, as I firmly believed that while the person who had the lowest votes always went home, the bottom 3 were never the bottom 3 in voting -- it was the loser plus two people they wanted there for storyline purposes. There were always some bottom 3 "shockers" and it was meant to "wake up" fanbases to vote for producer favorites.

 

But for Survivor, I tend to think the majority of manipulation takes place not at Tribal Council in the open, but during confessionals/talking heads. Instead of Probst putting ideas into a contestant's head, it's the producers. And again, it doesn't take much. Unless one believes confessionals are extemporaneous speeches, they're driven by producer questions. I think it'd be very easy if a producer favorite was in danger at the beginning of the show, for producers to gently prod contestants: "So, why are you thinking of voting out [Producer Favorite]? Have you thought about your longterm game? Do you think you could work with [Producer Favorite] more than [Cannon Fodder]?" What would be interesting is if, similar to recent Big Brother contestants, Survivor contestants started lying to producers in their confessionals, to throw them off the scent. But I'm not sure these people are smart enough to come up with that on their own.

 

Basically, I don't believe Survivor is fixed (in votes, outcomes, etc.), but I do believe it's manipulated -- and the degree of manipulation depends on if the contestants are behaving in a way that will yield the show's desired outcome. However, I also think that as the numbers shrink, it becomes more difficult to manipulate contestants. In fact, when Probst talks about the season being a "great" season, I always interpret that as "Our desired winner won." I pay extra close attention to seasons where Probst seems lukewarm, because to me, it's a good indicator that the producers didn't get their way.

[NutMeg]

It's been a while, but I remember loving Ben Elton's Chart Throb, which even got me to watch America's Idol for the first time ever, because I found the comments about how contestants were selected, edited and promoted pretty intriguing, and I remember thinking it applied to all reality TV (at the time, the only reality TV I knew was Survivor, which I think is a mix of reality/game, but casting and editing wise the kind of contestants who are promoted seemed to fit the categories that book was cataloguing. Now it's been a while, and my memory is fuzzy. But I know I have this book somewhere, and can try to dig it up and report if anyone's interested (I'll go look for it because I'm intrigued :-) ) . 

 

As I remember it, I'm sure there are very nice categories for everyone to fit, unique as they think they are! 

[KimberStormer]

Which is just another way of saying 'deck-stacking by the producers'.

 

Well, yes.  That's what I meant.  They pretty much decide who's up for Fan Favorite, by editing.  That's why Russell's idea that America should have a vote would be so disastrous to Survivor.  Anyway, even their edit powers are not absolute; I don't think they expected or wanted Kim to win Fan Favorite, for example.

 

 What would be interesting is if, similar to recent Big Brother contestants, Survivor contestants started lying to producers in their confessionals, to throw them off the scent. But I'm not sure these people are smart enough to come up with that on their own.

 

My personal favorite Survivor conspiracy theory is that the reason Danni got such an invisible edit is that she realized the producers were doing their utmost to stack the deck for Stephenie, so she treated the confessionals like tribal council and never said anything about what she was doing or why, so they couldn't go to Stephenie with this information.  Which also means they had no footage of her being clever for her winner's edit.  Supposedly she said something like this in a long-lost interview that no one can ever produce, sort of like the missing minutes in the Nixon tapes.  I don't know what crucial information Danni might have given away, but that's a fun one.

Edited October 6, 2015 by KimberStormer

[henripootel]

My personal favorite Survivor conspiracy theory is that the reason Danni got such an invisible edit is that she realized the producers were doing their utmost to stack the deck for Stephenie, so she treated the confessionals like tribal council and never said anything about what she was doing or why, so they couldn't go to Stephenie with this information.

Fairly hilarious, be great if it's true.  Honestly, were I on the show, I'd assume that anything I said in a TH would get around, and not just because the producers might be playing silly buggers.  What about people overhearing?  What about the increased attention by the camera guys to my alliance mates that might signal 'something's up'?  I think saying nothing is probably the smart move, but the show runners aren't gonna like that.

Edited October 6, 2015 by henripootel

[cherrypj]

I think saying nothing is probably the smart move, but the show runners aren't gonna like that.

 

We apparently saw/heard that this year, with Kelly Wiggles. Didn't she get called out by Jeffy P for not being forth-coming? 

[BigRedCheese]

I think Kelly was forthcoming, just not forthcoming in the direction they wanted.

[Way Wes Jr]

I think Kelly was trying to give Rob M. style "non-answers," and since, you know, vagina, Probst got pissy about it.

[loki567]

I think people forgot this thread exists. So I'm stealing this post off of Reddit to get it started back up: 

 

Quote

Ben finds an idol at his loved ones interview location. Production picks where they interview.

Ben finds an idol that there is no footage of.

Ben gets Probst to confirm to the tribe that his idol is real even though it's against the rules.

Ben finds an idol at the Final 5 under a boat, where the clue could have been rendered useless if someone had moved it. It's also the place Ben is interviewed the most.

Ben is given a fire making challenge to stay in the game even though this 'advantage' for Chrissie was never announced during pregame or during the game itself.

[SVNBob]

Saw that thread over there.  However I think there's more reasonable people here (in both senses of the phrase).  

In any case, counter-arguments for all the above points.  Devil's Advocating, if you will.

 

2 hours ago, loki567 said:

Ben finds an idol at his loved ones interview location. Production picks where they interview.

Partially correct.  Ben found this first idol on his way back to camp from a TH session after getting his letter from home.  Production typically does pick interview locations, but the spot where he was reading the letter may have been one he picked on his own.  (It was a nice private spot with a really good view.)  And, they tend to have people in different locations for different THs.  So, for example, Devon might have been in that spot on a different day and had the same opportunity.

2 hours ago, loki567 said:

Ben finds an idol that there is no footage of.

Again, partially correct.  Ben finds an idol that there is no shown footage of.  Based on descriptions of how Ben was able to get said idol from its hiding spot and the camera angle on Ben that we were shown, they may not have been able to capture the moment he found it.  Remember, his hat was in the shot blocking the view of Mike, Ryan, and Devon while they were having their bagel conversation.

2 hours ago, loki567 said:

Ben gets Probst to confirm to the tribe that his idol is real even though it's against the rules.

This one's mostly false.  Ben played the idol early.  He specifically said he was using it when he handed it over.  There was no precedent for an early idol play, because no one had ever done it.  But Peachy does confirm the validity of every idol, real or not,  that is played once done so.  He makes no comment on any idol someone simply wears or does not play.

Some people bring up Tony at this point.  But Tony was trying to "cheat" and get his idol "verified" without playing it (the one he played for LJ...and LJ responded by playing his for Tony, when neither of them needed to.)  Peachy specifically said Tony needed to play the idol to get the validity confirmed.

(Sidebar #1: Now, do I think Peachy made a mistake here?  Yes.  He should not have said anything about the idol being valid or not until after the voting.  It could have been a bluff with a fake, or a not-so-bluff with a fake.  Saying it was valid before the votes took away some agency and strategy from future players.)

2 hours ago, loki567 said:

Ben finds an idol at the Final 5 under a boat, where the clue could have been rendered useless if someone had moved it. It's also the place Ben is interviewed the most.

I'll conceded the points about moving the raft (a point brought up all the way at the beginning of the season with Joe's idol hunt), and that that spot may have been a prominent interview location for Ben.  But the reason that they put the idol there was not to feed it to Ben specifically.  It was because if him, however.

Recall the timeline.  After returning from the F6TC, Ben drops off his torch and bag, and immediately goes idol hunting in the middle of the night in pitch black darkness, which is stupid for 3 reasons.

1. It's dark, so he wouldn't be able to see any clues in the first place.
2. It's dark, so he might have done something to injure himself and require a medevac.
3. (The most important one): Ben left on his idol hunt immediately, meaning TPTB hadn't had any time to hide the damned thing first!

Assuming they were trying to be fair about the idol (a fair stretch given the nature of this thread); with Ben tromping around in the jungle in the dark, they had to find a place to hid the idol where he wouldn't find it as they were hiding it.  That pretty much left the beach, and thus the raft, as the only viable location.

(Sidebar #2: While Ben was stupid for going on an idol hunt in the dark, the rest of them were also stupid for not trying to find him.  Because they let their guard down yet again, he was able to capitalize on the opportunity they allowed him to take.  Lots of stupidity to go around that night.)

2 hours ago, loki567 said:

Ben is given a fire making challenge to stay in the game even though this 'advantage' for Chrissie was never announced during pregame or during the game itself.

I'll concede on one point of this only: that it was unfair that this twist was not announced until this point.  (I get why, given that TPTB decided to make this "the season of secrets".  As Peachy said during the reunion, that twist is the new status quo, and a new twist in the game as "the final secret" does sound really cool.) 

But it was not given to Ben.  As we saw in the challenge, Ben could have won.  From the post-IC chatter, it sounded like Ben was the one that had the most "close calls" in finishing, with the one with the upside-down U the most interesting TV-wise (or possibly the only time he was successful in the lock-down at the end).   But the twist still would have happened regardless of the winner of that FIC.  So assuming Ben won that FIC, there still would have been a fire challenge, but with Devon facing off against Chrissy instead.

Or Chrissy could have decided that since Ben might have been able to win the fire challenge, she might as well take him instead.  That could have devalued his game, since he would have been "taken" to FTC instead of "earning" it.

In the end, Ben found all those idols, because he was the main one actively looking for them.  The rest seemed to give up sooner.

Edited December 22, 2017 by SVNBob