Season 6: Speculation

[SeanC]

He proposed to Catelyn over her husband's dead body. 

In the show.  Not the books.

 

As for why he should care about her children, he ought to because they're hers. Because he ought to care about her happiness and well-being if he loves her, but he really doesn't. And he doesn't care about Sansa, either, in the long run. I don't know why anyone is imagining that Baelish's infatuation with Sansa is some kind of magical talisman that's going to protect her from harm. It's not.

Nobody was arguing he loved Catelyn in anything resembling a healthy manner; he was obsessed with her, and is obsessed with Sansa.  And it certainly doesn't mean Sansa's safe from harm around him (consider all that she's already suffered as a result of his desire for her); but it does mean he's not just going to cavalierly get rid of her.  She's the fulfillment of a personal desire.

 

What I mean by a ploy, is that his "only Cat" remark led Sansa to believe, along with the rest of us, that she has some power, perhaps a LOT of power, over Baelish, when in fact she has no more power over him than Cat, Roz, or Lysa had.

No, it didn't.  You seem to be conflating the show and the books, and the show Littlefinger (who didn't even say "Only Cat") definitely did not have any sort of plan when he kissed Sansa and killed Lysa -- hence, why he needed to be saved by Sansa.  The writers confirmed outright he had no plan and no idea that Sansa would help him out.

The reason to marry Sansa is to get her claim of the North. Same reason everyone else ever had for wanting to marry Sansa. But since he is now her uncle by marriage, Littlefinger doesn't need to do it--he's already Lord Protector of any claim Sansa has once the husband is dead, as long as she has a child or is carrying one by that husband.

Er, no, that's not how that works.  Generally the regent for a child heir is the mother.  There's no such thing as an automatic lord protector role for the regent's uncle-by-marriage.

Edited October 5, 2015 by SeanC

[Chris24601]

Yeah, medieval inheritence doesn't work way at all. Killing Lysa didn't make him the Lord of the Vale, that's still Robin, the son of Jon Arryn. All he is on the show is the regent at the grace of the other Vale Lords until Robin comes of age. If he did well in the role and befriended Robin he could have a place as a trusted advisor long after Robin came of age, but that's it. Killing Robin doesn't give him any claim to the throne of the Vale and if it occurred in any way that made him look incompetent or complicit in his death he'd be removed by the same Vale Lords who spared him only on Sansa's account of Lysa's death.

 

Similarly, the only way Littlefinger could get Sansa's claims to the North and Riverlands would be to have a child with her and then become regent of the child until they came of age. The whole "Black Widow(er)" who serially marries then murders for inheritances just doesn't work with the way feudal inheritance does because there's no will to get changed in terms of who gets the title. The actual bloodline is all that matters.

 

Frankly, after the debacle with Ramsey (likely mirrored by some other event in her Vale arc in WoW) I don't see Sansa doing anything but growing further from Littlefinger going forward and probably getting involved in the Northern plots (D&D probably accelerated her storyline just like they did Tyrion because at the time they were only planning on seven and not eight seasons).

[Advance35]

Ideally Tyrion will thwart him eventually. It ought to be Tyrion because that's Littlefinger's real opponent in this game and always has been, and because from the beginning, Tyrion has been the unlikely and reluctant ally of the Starks, especially Sansa. But because this is not a fairy tale, he will probably pay for it with his life.

 

That's a very interesting observation as I've always felt that LF's real opponent was Varys and I think this is something that has been reinforced in the show, HOWEVER I do think LF has a certain loathing for Tyrion and I think it started long before Tyrion's marriage to Sansa.   The times LF has struck out at Tyrion have all been insidious, sadistic and (in one way or another) lethal.   You would think he hates Tyrion on a personal level, I would say he hates all highborn game players but he doesn't seem to display such a cold/implacable hate with regards to Tywin or Olenna Tyrell.  In regards to everyone else, he helps them rise and fall in equal measure, depending on what's in his best interest but whatever manuever he makes it's always bad news for Tyrion.   

 

Tyrion knows LF isn't to be trusted, that he's hungry and disloyal but I think Tyrion makes the same mistake that every other highborn in this story does, he doesn't think anyone lowborn can be a monumental threat and as a result he see's Baelish as a courtly adversary instead of the mortal enemy he is.

 

I could see Tyrion, Sansa and Littlefinger all coming together again in a fatal match-off.   I think it would be Tyrion and LF with Sansa tipping the scales one way or another.   Tyrion has shown much more regard for Sansa's life, then Sansa ever has for his (understandably IMO) so I don't think sentiment would rule her decision.  She loathes all things Lannister which makes guessing whom she would side with more difficult. 

 

I love the dynamic of all parties involved so if this kind of situation arises, It'll be awesome viewing/reading for me.

 

I think LF is in lust with Sansa and he views her as prize, something to be lorded over the corpses of Houses Stark and Tully, and while I think he would feed Sansa to a grinder in the right circumstances, I think those circumstances would have to be him all but guaranteed a VERY good shot at the throne.

[nksarmi]

Well assuming Sansa does in fact get involved in the Northern plots in the books, I'm not sure even an 8th season would have given them good reason to have her sit around in the Vale.  That story is just mind-numbingly boring to me.  And while I don't like the way they handled the story with Ramsey this year, I do like that Sansa knows her brothers are alive and that maybe something might come of that next season. 

 

Besides, in one way or another, all of the Stark children are on the same journey in the books - having lost their identity only to presumably discover who they truly are and claim it in the end.  Bran might be the furthest along in that he lost his identity when he was crippled and could no longer become the Stark knight he thought he was meant to be.  Instead, it seems as if he is becoming something older, a deeper connection to the Stark blood.  He has replaced one destiny with another entirely.  Ayra is literally in the process of losing her identity to become a Faceless Man.  But hopefully, her journey will end with her taking up Needle and becoming Ayra Stark again.  Jon Snow has literally died, but when he rises, I believe he will connect more with his Stark blood than his Targ heritage.   And then there is Rickon who is in hiding and could well be going by a different name.  He will presumably be found in the next book/season and reclaim Winterfell for his family.

 

Since all of the Stark children are on a similar journey in the books - one of losing and finding oneself again - it makes sense that D&D have chosen not to show each journey on screen.  They have to show Jon's journey and I guess Ayra's is important enough to the end game that they kept it.  But they tabled Bran's for a year, kept Rickon off screen like the books have, and skipped over Sansa's.  As horrified as people were that she had to endure Ramsey, it was still likely a better choice than the Vale plot.  The only other choice might have been to table her story as well like Bran's.

 

At any rate, some of the choices D&D have made have been good (like skipping over most of Tyrion's drunken self-loathing on the road to Meereen).  But other choices are confounding - like putting Jamie in Dorne and then removing everything that was interesting about Dorne.  I guess we will see if it makes sense in the end, but right now - I'm still more at a loss for their Dorne choices in season five than what they have done with Sansa.

[nksarmi]

In regards to Littlefinger, Varys, and Tyrion - in the books, I don't think Littlefinger is actually playing for the Iron Throne.  I could be wrong, but I think he is playing a game of wealth - monopoly if you will.  I think he is smart enough to realize that he can't rise to rule the entirety of the seven kingdoms, but he can get very rich off of chaos.  I also think he has a personal grudge against the Starks and the Tullys that he has had the opportunity to avenge because certain people are blithering idiots.

 

If book Littlefinger were interested in the Iron Throne, he would have made a move for Myrcella's or Dany's hand.  Nothing other than that could get him anything that resembles ruling the seven kingdoms.  Because let's review, the Lannister children are bastards, so the Iron Throne passes to Robert's brother.  Only one currently lives in the series, so if he dies, it passes to his heir.  If she dies - and the Barrathans are spent - rule would pass to another highborn family - one that likely has some drop of Targaryn blood.  In the books, I believe that would be the Martells. 

 

In the books, Littlefinger controls the Vale with a very weak hold.  Any of the Vale lords could supplant him at any moment.  He has no personal army - it all truly belongs to Robin.  And if he dies, it passes to another Vale lord.  In King's Landing, the crown is in hock to the Iron Bank so the ability to buy an army is drastically decreasing.  Ergo, even if Littlefinger - for some reason - made a move to sit the Iron Throne, could he defend it if the Martells decided to take it from him?  Particularly if they sided with another of the great houses?  I think what they are soon going to reveal in the books is that no one BUT a Stark can rule the North and they sure as hell wouldn't accept Littlefinger any more than the Boltons.  If he had to fight the North from above and the Martells from below - Littlefinger would be crushed and who is going to stand with him and why?

 

So Littlefinger has NO path to the Iron Throne except marriage and why would Myrcella or Dany marry him?  I believe that book LF is far too intelligent to believe he could capture the throne.  No he is playing a different game than all of them - get rich and buy influence with the next ruler.  In other words, rule through proxy, but not by trying to invent a claim he knows no one will ever support.

 

Now show Littlefinger seems arrogant and stupid enough to play for the Iron Throne, but that's because I think the writers enjoy his "behind the scenes puppet master" act a little more than they should.  They stretch the bounds of believability at times.

 

Varys on the other hand is a much more interesting and effective character.  He is a true believer in who he supports in both mediums and he believes he is doing good by arranging for that person to rise in power.  He is not out to rule, create chaos, or get rich - he is just inexplicably trying to put a ruler in power who is worthy of ruling (I say inexplicably because he isn't from Westerous and I don't understand entirely why he cares).  So he is playing the game for someone else and is an excellent people reader - I honestly believe whoever he backs has a very good chance of winning.

 

Tyrion at this point has enough intelligence, empathy, and cunning to rule and be good at it, but much like Littlefinger, he would probably never be accepted.  So he has to do as Varys is doing and find someone to back who will heed his advice and hope to do some good that way.  And I believe he does want to do good - unlike Littlefinger.

 

So either Varys or Tyrion could be LF's advisories and perhaps the combination of them will be enough to do him in.  Or he will simply be done in by the chaos he helped create.

Edited October 5, 2015 by nksarmi

[benteen]

I don't think Book LF is looking to sit on the Iron Thrones...for various reasons, he's not going to be able to.  Even being raised up to various titles like Lord of Haranhal, Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Regent of the Vale.  I think he wants to be the man controlling the man on the Iron Throne.  That is the power he seeks.  To truly rule the Seven Kingdoms without sitting on the Throne (I'm sure he'd like to but is realistic about it).

Edited October 5, 2015 by benteen

[SeanC]

Yeah, that's how I always read LF in the book. He understands the limits on what he can do publicly as a result of his station, and uses highborn assets to do what he cannot. He clearly wants an audience for his genius, but he's got Sansa for that.

[Wouter]

There's no point in the two having married unless it becomes relevant again. 

The marriage is relevant even at this point, in the books: Sansa cannot go ahead with marrying Harry (or Robin, or LF himself) until she has been "safely widowed" or an alternative means of dissolving the marriage is found. Halfway round the world, Tyrion used the marriage as an excuse to keep Penny at arms length. 

 

And once Tyrion returns, the marriage is likely to become more relevant again simply by virtue of it being a match between a highranking noble girl and an important advisor/lord (and quite possibly, dragonrider!) under the banners of the Targaryens. Dissolving the marriage would finally free up Sansa to marry and seal an alliance (for example: food and men from the Vale or the Tyrells to the north) and would also put Tyrion (possibly a politically and financially very interesting match, by that point, though not any more physically attractive than before) on the market. If the marriage stays, then there will be a reason for that: someone will have a reason to want it to stay. For me, Tyrion is a dark horse for the eventual holder of the Iron Throne, in the shadow of favourites Dany and Jon. 

Edited October 5, 2015 by Wouter

[Hecate7]

Yeah, medieval inheritence doesn't work way at all. Killing Lysa didn't make him the Lord of the Vale, that's still Robin, the son of Jon Arryn. All he is on the show is the regent at the grace of the other Vale Lords until Robin comes of age. If he did well in the role and befriended Robin he could have a place as a trusted advisor long after Robin came of age, but that's it. Killing Robin doesn't give him any claim to the throne of the Vale and if it occurred in any way that made him look incompetent or complicit in his death he'd be removed by the same Vale Lords who spared him only on Sansa's account of Lysa's death.

 

Similarly, the only way Littlefinger could get Sansa's claims to the North and Riverlands would be to have a child with her and then become regent of the child until they came of age. The whole "Black Widow(er)" who serially marries then murders for inheritances just doesn't work with the way feudal inheritance does because there's no will to get changed in terms of who gets the title. The actual bloodline is all that matters.

 

Frankly, after the debacle with Ramsey (likely mirrored by some other event in her Vale arc in WoW) I don't see Sansa doing anything but growing further from Littlefinger going forward and probably getting involved in the Northern plots (D&D probably accelerated her storyline just like they did Tyrion because at the time they were only planning on seven and not eight seasons).

 

Killing Lyssa made him Lord Protector. Just like the Lord Admiral who was Lord Protector of King Edward VI until he came of age, who planned to marry Elizabeth I, kidnap Edward, and take the throne once his wife, Katherine Parr died. Making himself Lord Protector of enough lands, would give him all of the armies. As has already been demonstrated by Robert Baratheon, it's possible to become king by right of conquest.

 

I know that Varys was presented initially as Baelish's opponent, but unlike Baelish and Tyrion, Varys cannot sit the throne because he cannot sire heirs. Varys wants to be the power behind the throne. He wants to create what he believes will be a better world. He wants to put his protege on the Iron Throne. Tyrion does not want the Iron Throne and isn't actually playing for it--he's been playing a completely defensive game up until now. Baelish, otoh, has no favorite protege he wants to place on the throne. He's playing an offensive game, and has been from the start, and it's all for himself. There are many strategies that can place a lord on the throne, and Baelish has lit on one that will ultimately put him there. He just hasn't told us exactly what it is.

 

If SweetRobin dies, unless Harry the Heir exists in the show world, too, then Sansa actually is the heir to the Vale. As her uncle, Baelish becomes the heir. He is also heir to Winterfell, as Sansa's uncle, once the Boltons are dead. Baelish's strategy rests largely on stripping Sansa of all male relatives, and being her uncle is better than marrying her for the present, until someone else marries her.

Edited October 5, 2015 by Hecate7

[SeanC]

Killing Lyssa made him Lord Protector.

Nope. Lysa made him Lord Protector while she was alive.

 

If SweetRobin dies, unless Harry the Heir exists in the show world, too, then Sansa actually is the heir to the Vale. As her uncle, Baelish becomes the heir. He is also heir to Winterfell, as Sansa's uncle, once the Boltons are dead.

Nope to both of those.  Sansa is not in the line of succession to the Vale at all (well, maybe very, very distantly via her descent from Lorra Royce), and Baelish being her uncle-by-marriage gives him absolutely zero claim to anything she is in line for.

Edited October 6, 2015 by SeanC

[nksarmi]

Yea I really don't think uncles by marriage get to inherit anything.  I imagine John A has some cousin that would be his heir if Robin dies.  Sansa's claim on the Riverlands is third in line at best with both Edmure and Blackfish being alive.  I don't believe that LF in the books or the show can engineer Sansa getting the Riverlands and he can't get the Vale.

 

That leaves Winterfell and the North.  Both the show and the books recognize that only Sansa's husband can claim Winterfell and that claim is completely dependent on Rickon, Bran or hell even Benjen NOT showing up again (I know Benjen took the black, but the North would definitely take him over LF).  I mean yes, everyone believes Sansa is the last Stark living, but we know differently.  So while LF could play for Winterfell is he married Sansa himself - would he want to?  He can't rule the North directly - he'd have to rule through Sansa.  And Winter is coming (not to mention possibly the dead).  If it was Spring, LF might want Winterfell.  But as it is, he can't make a profit up there and that is what he really cares about.

 

I think LF will be perfectly content in the Vale trying to make as much money off Winter as he can as he keeps an eye on the mess that is going on in KL.  Once he has more money than even the Lannisters, he can buy influence with the next ruler - or at least I believe that is his plan.

Edited October 6, 2015 by nksarmi

[Advance35]

If the marriage stays, then there will be a reason for that: someone will have a reason to want it to stay. For me, Tyrion is a dark horse for the eventual holder of the Iron Throne, in the shadow of favourites Dany and Jon.

 

 

I can't see Tyrion on the Iron Throne, I think he's very much in the same boat as LF (I agree with those who feel LF's lowborn origin will always keep him out of reach of the Throne) in that he has what it takes to rule but he would never be allowed too, different reasons, same glass ceiling as it were.

 

I think LF will be perfectly content in the Vale trying to make as much money off Winter as he can as he keeps an eye on the mess that is going on in KL.  Once he has more money than even the Lannisters, he can buy influence with the next ruler - or at least I believe that is his plan.

 

 

Well we've seen that the Iron Throne is heavily dependent on it's support.   The Baratheon's needed House Lannister to hold the Throne, The Lannister's needed the Tyrells.   When those Houses are ground down into nothing maybe he thinks he can gain more influence with a depleted Iron Throne, through the Vale and what's left of the North.   The show version had to be streamlined so his scheme is much less byzantine.   They allowed him to win over the Vale and set up an on paper alliance with House Bolton, the current rulers of the North.   All the while he's still managed to maintain his position with the current Iron Throne holders.   I don't find it hard to believe that LF is one of the richest men in Westeros, it maybe untraceable but I have know doubt it's there, I just don't think money is enough.   The man has a nihilistic hunger for power. 

 

Varys: Picturing all the High Lords and High Ladies, bowing to you?

Littlefinger: (staring at the Throne)  it's a little hard for Lords and Ladies to bow, without heads.

 

That say's it all about LF IMO.  I'm paraphrasing but that was the gist during one of his square-offs with Varys in the Throne Room.

 

He's very sly and he's got a knack for survival.   Sansa has know idea how deep LF's plans and machinations gone and just how those schemes destroyed her life and that of her family and if you notice, nobody is left alive whom could tell her.   I think this season, if Sansa lives, she is going to come to realize how much she does need LF.   She's simply not up to game playing on her own and I think that's a lesson that was driven home when she was in Winterfell.   She was pro-active and sly when she knew LF was there and had her back but alone she floundered.   If LF comes to Winterfell and manages to find Sansa before any other faction, I see Sansa willingly rejoining him.   I'm not sure whether she will trust him with the knowledge that her brothers are still alive but I thinks she'll want to stay with LF and his army.

 

What their JOINT goal will be, I have know clue.

[nksarmi]

Advance35 - I think we were analyzing what book LF would do - ie, stay content in the Vale getting rich.  Show LF is different and in my opinion, not nearly as smart OR cunning as his book counterpart.  I could see show LF being stupid enough to think he could accomplish more than he honestly can, but his book counterpart seems to recognize what his limitations are and is content to work within them.

 

For example, I don't believe that conversation between LF and Varys that you referenced actually takes place in the books. 

 

I will honestly be surprised if Sansa and LF meet again at all in season six (at least not until the end), but I've been wrong before.  I think her journey stays in the North, possibly with Brie and Pod and leads her to her brother Rickon (maybe with Bran's guidance).  I think she will also be reunited with Jon this season.  I honestly don't think establishing Sansa's knowledge that Bran and Rickon are alive and that Jon is Lord Commander of the Night's Watch was done without meaning.  That is her season six journey.

 

Now it does seem that once LF does what ever damage he is going to do in KL to make the Queen of Thrones happy, he will eventually be on the march North with a Vale army, but I suspect he will merely align with Jon and North once he gets there.  I doubt he will be very happy to learn an heir of Winterfell lives and Jon is a risen prophesized savior meant to save Westerous from the dead, but he will find a way to make a profit off it if he can. :)

Edited October 6, 2015 by nksarmi

[SeanC]

Sansa's claim on the Riverlands is third in line at best with both Edmure and Blackfish being alive.

Sansa is ahead of the Blackfish.

 

I will honestly be surprised if Sansa and LF meet again at all in season six (at least not until the end), but I've been wrong before.  

I'm sure they will, both because of the filming info we have about them both filming at the Winterfell set, and because interacting with Littlefinger is most probably the crux of Sansa's book arc, which the writers will probably try to pivot back to after the Jeyne Poole diversion.  How Littlefinger and the Valemen fit into all the other stuff happening in the North, I honestly have no idea.

[Hecate7]

Yea I really don't think uncles by marriage get to inherit anything.  I imagine John A has some cousin that would be his heir if Robin dies.

 

I've looked at the family tree, and the next of kin is "Harry the Heir," of course. There are absolutely no Arryns left besides Robin. Once Harry's gone, Lysa's relatives come into it simply because there is no one else. Edmure and his son would be before Sansa, but I'm sure Baelish has worked it out so that they won't be for very long. I can't remember if uncles come before or after daughters. I think after, but they come before bastards, so the Blackfish has quite a wait if he wants the Vale.

[Haleth]

If the Arryn line is completely extinguished, wouldn't it be up to the king to name a new lord of the Vale?  I don't see how Tullys would have any claim without the consent of the king.

[Chris24601]

Edmure and his son would be before Sansa, but I'm sure Baelish has worked it out so that they won't be for very long.

I think all of this theorizing about Littlefinger's plans and marrying and murdering his way to the Iron Throne are probably going end up not being worth a popcorn fart in the end.

 

I say this because all Littlefinger's schemes are dependent upon one very critical point... he still thinks he's in a political thriller when its been clear since the very first scene that all the political machinations are nothing more than a distraction (a potentially fatal one) from the main story of supernatural horrors descending upon the land and the high fantasy of prophesies, hidden heirs, dragons and magic reborn.

 

Basically, I think Littlefinger's downfall is going to be that he actually is wrong genre savvy for the real story of ASoIaF and will only figure that out too late to save himself.

 

Honestly, I think Sansa through all her horrors and hardships that she's endured is far better prepaired to face the supernatural horror show that's coming than Littlefinger or the entire KL crew could even imagine being.

 

I don't think schemers are going to stand a chance during the final act. You can't bargain or scheme against the endless hordes of the undead who want nothing more than to claw you to death and add your corpse to their numbers.

 

The only ones whom I think will make it to the end are the survivors... the ones who know how to endure and persevere in the face of hardship. Jon, Sam and Gilly, Tormund and Wildlings, Davos, Sansa, Arya, Tyrion, Bran. If anyone is going to survive the Endless Winter it will be characters like those, not Littlefinger.

[nksarmi]

Sansa is ahead of the Blackfish.

 

I'm sure they will, both because of the filming info we have about them both filming at the Winterfell set, and because interacting with Littlefinger is most probably the crux of Sansa's book arc, which the writers will probably try to pivot back to after the Jeyne Poole diversion.  How Littlefinger and the Valemen fit into all the other stuff happening in the North, I honestly have no idea.

 

But wouldn't Sansa and Littlefinger meeting up again at Winterfell happen at the end of the season?  I mean, I AM assuming that Ramsey doesn't recapture the girl rather quickly only to have LF meet up with her prior to the battle that unseats the Boltons.  Dear God, I just scared myself - I hope that isn't what happens!

I've looked at the family tree, and the next of kin is "Harry the Heir," of course. There are absolutely no Arryns left besides Robin. Once Harry's gone, Lysa's relatives come into it simply because there is no one else. Edmure and his son would be before Sansa, but I'm sure Baelish has worked it out so that they won't be for very long. I can't remember if uncles come before or after daughters. I think after, but they come before bastards, so the Blackfish has quite a wait if he wants the Vale.

What about distant cousins?  Like the Kastarks to the Starks?  Wouldn't that come before in-laws?

 

ETA: Chris - I think you can add Varys to your list of survivors.  He might be a schemer, but when he does share a morsel of information about his past, it's very clear that he's a survivor as well.

Edited October 6, 2015 by nksarmi

[SeanC]

I've looked at the family tree, and the next of kin is "Harry the Heir," of course. There are absolutely no Arryns left besides Robin. Once Harry's gone, Lysa's relatives come into it simply because there is no one else.

Wrong. There are lots of Arryns left; Robert/Robin and Harry are merely the last descendant of Jasper Arryn. And even more female-line claimants who may be more immediate. There is no reason that a maternal cousin of the last lord with no notable Arryn ancestry or connection to the Vale would ever be considered.

[Alapaki]

With a contested throne/wardship, the most viable candidate for "heir" is the one with the biggest army.

 

The Iron Throne (at least in book-world) is extremely weak.  At this point the "Throne" is basically the Lannisters, along with whichever house they can pull in for an alliance.  I get the impression from the books that without the Tyrells the Lannisters don't have much army-strength left.  And without Tywin the Lannisters have no political strength.  

 

I think that, assuming the books don't end with a return to Spring, we're going to see the "Iron Throne" that everyone's been fighting so hard for completely destroyed.  

 

Anyone taking the Throne right now is taking over a "Kingdom" with Houses to the West (Greyjoys) and South (Martells) in open revolt (or close thereto).  There are increasing rumors of something coming from the East.  And there are armed religious zealots gaining power within Kings Landing itself.

 

Who would want to deal with all of that bullshit?

 

On top of that, I get the impression that holding the Iron Throne in Winter is probably not much more than hunkering down in the Red Keep.  I'm sure Winter isn't as bad that far south as it is in "The North", but it still sounds like it's no cakewalk.  

 

I'd think that every sensible power-player would prefer to keep their powder dry and their own forces strong and safe through the Winter, and only make a move on the Throne (to the extent there's one left) come next Spring.

[Chris24601]

On top of that, I get the impression that holding the Iron Throne in Winter is probably not much more than hunkering down in the Red Keep.  I'm sure Winter isn't as bad that far south as it is in "The North", but it still sounds like it's no cakewalk.  

Ironically, Winterfell is supposedly one of the more hospitable places to winter in Westeros; owing to it being built with piping that carries water from the hot springs underneath to keep it warm and a series greenhouses to grow fresh vegetables throughout the long winters. According to the books the peasantry from the surrounding area all congregates in a 'seasonal' village just outside Winterfell because of its resources in that regard.

 

One of the advantages of having an ancestor with the knowhow to build the Wall is your ancestral home is pretty winter resistant. Its also one of the reasons (along with the narrative need to return to where the story started that I think Winterfell must play a key role in defeating the Walkers/saving humanity and why its so critical that Jon retake it before the Walkers breach the Wall (which will inevitably happen... half the setup becomes meaningless if they don't actually get south of the Wall).

 

If there's something particularly mystical involved it could also be why there must ALWAYS be a Stark at Winterfell (i.e. the magics don't work right without someone descended from Bran the Builder present in the castle).

[Alapaki]

If there's something particularly mystical involved it could also be why there must ALWAYS be a Stark at Winterfell (i.e. the magics don't work right without someone descended from Bran the Builder present in the castle).

 

 

Well now that tickles my speculation-bone.

 

IIRC there are several places in the first book where GRRM seems to go out of his way to point out how much Sansa looks like Catelyn, and to contrast that with how much Robb, Jon and Arya look like Ned.

 

What if with the White Walkers approaching Zombie Cate confesses that Sansa was not Ned's, but rather the product of a revenge-affair she had when he brought Jon back from the war?  She would then have to embrace Jon as a Stark as the last hope of holding the White Walkers back.

[Skeeter22]

Only Arya and Jon look like Ned. GRRM makes it clear that Bran, Rickon, Robb, and Sansa all look like the Tullys. I seriously don't think he intends for the reader to question the paternity of any of the Stark kids save for Jon.

[SeanC]

Only Arya and Jon look like Ned. GRRM makes it clear that Bran, Rickon, Robb, and Sansa all look like the Tullys. I seriously don't think he intends for the reader to question the paternity of any of the Stark kids save for Jon.

Yeah, I've never understood how readers can do that. We have Catelyn's POV; she unequivocally refers to all of her children as Ned's.

[nksarmi]

I thought the references to Ayra looking like Lyanna and Jon looking like Arya was just supposed to clue us to the fact that Jon might be related to Lyanna.

[SeanC]

I thought the references to Ayra looking like Lyanna and Jon looking like Arya was just supposed to clue us to the fact that Jon might be related to Lyanna.

That's definitely one of the purposes, along with forming part of the basis for the especially close relationship between Jon and Arya.

[mac123x]

If the Arryn line is completely extinguished, wouldn't it be up to the king to name a new lord of the Vale?  I don't see how Tullys would have any claim without the consent of the king.

 

As someone else pointed out, there are lots of Arryns running around the Vale.  The problem would be figuring out which one was the "correct" heir.  They'd have a disputed succession, sort of like Scotland after the Maid of Norway died. 

 

With a contested throne/wardship, the most viable candidate for "heir" is the one with the biggest army.

 

Pretty much..

[benteen]

There are also the Arryns of Gulltown.  They all married merchants and were pretty much disowned  by the main line.

[MadMouse]

And there's a slight chance that Timett is the son of Jon Arryn's niece who was kidnapped by the Burned Men. 

[Hecate7]

Wrong. There are lots of Arryns left; Robert/Robin and Harry are merely the last descendant of Jasper Arryn. And even more female-line claimants who may be more immediate. There is no reason that a maternal cousin of the last lord with no notable Arryn ancestry or connection to the Vale would ever be considered.

 

Do you mean the Gulltown Arryns? They're not even really related.

 

Quoting from iviking on AFOIAF:

 

So the line of succession should look like this assuming everyone was alive:

Robert Arryn's heirs

    Ronnel Arryn (son of Lord Jasper Arryn and younger brother of Lord Jon Arryn)

    Jasper Arryn (son of Ronnel Arryn, grandson of Lord Jasper Arryn and nephew of Lord Jon Arryn)

    Alys Arryn (daughter of Lord Jasper Arryn and younger sister of Lord Jon Arryn)

    Jasper Waynwood (son of Alys Arryn, grandson of Lord Jasper Arryn and nephew of Lord Jon Arryn)

    1st daughter (daughter of Alys Arryn, granddaughter of Lord Jasper Arryn and niece of Lord Jon Arryn)

    1st daughter's son (son of the oldest daughter of Alys Arryn and great-grandson of Lord Jasper Arryn)

    2nd-7th daughters of Alys Arryn

    8th daughter (daughter of Alys Arryn, granddaughter of Lord Jasper Arryn and niece of Lord Jon Arryn)

    Harrold "Harry the Heir" Hardyng (son of the youngest daughter of Alys Arryn and great-grandson of Lord Jasper Arryn)

Now if we remove dead people from this:

    Ronnel Arryn - died of bad belly

    Jasper Arryn - executed by the Mad King

    Alys Arryn - unknown cause of death

    Jasper Waynwood - died in an accident

    1st daughter - unknown cause of death

    1st daughter's son - unknown cause of death

    2nd-7th daughters of Alys Arryn and their children - all died, disappeared or joined the silent sisters/became a septa before having any children

    8th daughter - unknown cause of death

    Harrold "Harry the Heir" Hardyng

 

There is a rogue theory that one of the Hill men, Timmett son of Timmett, perhaps, might actually be one of Alys's descendents, but it's just a theory. Apparently House Royce is next in line after Harold Hardyng, so add that house to Baelish's kill list. If they were connected through the male line wouldn't their name would be Arryn, not Royce?

Edited October 14, 2015 by Hecate7

[SeanC]

Do you mean the Gulltown Arryns? They're not even really related.

Yes, they are. But they're only one of several Arryn cadet branches, as well as, one assumes, female-line descendants.

[Hecate7]

Yes, they are. But they're only one of several Arryn cadet branches, as well as, one assumes, female-line descendants.

 

Female line descendants are: Harold Hardyng. It's down to cadet branches, about which I am very confused, because the Royces apparently ARE the Gulltown Arryns? How are they related?

[SeanC]

Female line descendants are: Harold Hardyng. It's down to cadet branches, about which I am very confused, because the Royces apparently ARE the Gulltown Arryns? How are they related?

No, Harold Hardyng is the only female-line descendant of Jasper Arryn, the current lord's grandfather.  There would be (many) others; we don't know who they are, because we don't know anything about the Arryn family tree beyond Jasper.  The Royces aren't the Gulltown Arryns; I don't understand what you mean by that.  The Gulltown Arryns are a cadet branch that married into the Gulltown merchant class for money.

[Hecate7]

Actually, my above post does cover all of the siblings of Jasper Arryn--they are all deceased, and so are their children, except Harold Hardyng. I am not sure how the Royces are linked to the inheritance, or how the Gulltown Arryns come into it at all, but if you google one, you get the other as well, so there's probably some kind of connection, most likely through marriage.

[SeanC]

I mean there would be many other female-line descendants of the Arryns in general, not of Jasper.  It's only Jasper's line that is almost exhausted.

Edited October 15, 2015 by SeanC

[ElizaD]

Considering all the casting/location news that have been shared in the past couple of months, I really feel there must have been a reorganization of the plots. A year ago the showrunners were talking about seven seasons and I can't believe they'd be going back to AFFC for stuff like the Ironborn and the siege of Riverrun if that only left them one season to bring Dany back to Westeros, conclude the KL stories, have tons of character reunions, and begin the invasion/defeat of the Others. When it was decided the show would be eight seasons minimum, they must have rethought how much of the books they can include. Right now Aegon/Arianne looks like the only major plot that's staying gone and AFFC/ADWD are basically getting two and a half seasons.

[Winnief]

Considering all the casting/location news that have been shared in the past couple of months, I really feel there must have been a reorganization of the plots. A year ago the showrunners were talking about seven seasons and I can't believe they'd be going back to AFFC for stuff like the Ironborn and the siege of Riverrun if that only left them one season to bring Dany back to Westeros, conclude the KL stories, have tons of character reunions, and begin the invasion/defeat of the Others. When it was decided the show would be eight seasons minimum, they must have rethought how much of the books they can include. Right now Aegon/Arianne looks like the only major plot that's staying gone and AFFC/ADWD are basically getting two and a half seasons.

 

I think you're right.  I think Dany's arrival and the invasion of the White Walkers throughout Westeros will be set up in Season 6 but take place in Season 7 so they'll have two seasons to deal with all that.

[Audreythe2nd]

I actually disagree somewhat. Because of how relentless the yearly production schedule is, they had to have known awhile ago how they were going to structure Season 6. And I don't think what we're seeing is putting material back in because they have time to kill. Instead, I think they are taking every arc from AFFC, ADwD and pairing each with whatever resolution is in WoW and making season long arcs instead of three season arcs. For example, Jaime's Riverlands story starts in AFFC, has one chapter in ADwD and (I assume) will reach some kind of crest in WoW. I think they are cherry picking aspects of the Riverlands arc (like some kind of the siege, the presense of the key characters who were in that area, etc.) and giving it a conflict, climax AND resolution in one season. This means what we see will be heavily adapted of course, but it's what I expect at this point.

 

Take a look at some of the other storylines to see how they've already done this. Tyrion is still travelling in ADwD and hasn't met up with Dany yet or arrived in Mereen, but the show sped that up and gave us the beginning, middle and end of that journey in one season. Stannis is another KEY example of a character where they did this. They adapted what was in his ADwD story, pushed into whatever happens to him in WoW and reworked it that way so there was also a clear beginning, middle and end to his story in one season. This is what D&D like to do, and once you've figured out their pattern I think (in my opinon anyway) it becomes pretty easy to predict what they are trying to do with the different character stories per season. Jaime's Riverlands story in AFFC/ADwD does not end in a proper spot for it to be called the end of an arc. I can't see them adapting it exactly as it is in the books, especially given how far the rest of the stories are going to be propelled in relation, time-wise. Therefore, I can only assume that whatever resolution we see at the end of this show-Riverlands take is somewhere in WoW.

 

Same thing with the Iron-born. They're introducing them again this season, introducing Euron, but I think they waited because Euron's true purpose to the story must be somewhere in Winds. I assume we're going to see the "climax" and denoument of the Ironborn story during Season 6 as well. It might even extend beyond Euron attacking the Reach... I just feel with what I've read of Euron in the books we're not even close to discovering what his real story purpose is, and it's not in D&D's script writing nature to tell half a story in one season.

 

So those are just some thoughts on what I personally think they are doing and why we're seeing certain arcs crop up now. I also think they legitimately aren't sure if they are going to need beyond seven seasons. They could probably do it in seven, would probably feel like it's a bit too spread out in eight... so, maybe their magic number is somewhere between the two. But contract negotions must be tricky for a thing like that, which is why the producers have remained totally silent regarding the announcement about eight seasons while HBO was the one to break the news. Everything I've read leads me to believe that D&D want to be finished with this as soon as humanly possible, both to not drag out the story if it doesn't need dragging out, and for the sake of their personal lives. But I think everything in Season 6 must be as they've been intending it for awhile; it's Season 7 and 8 and the number of hours they need to tell the story of the big battles and the resolution that must currently be up in the air.

[Winnief]

So those are just some thoughts on what I personally think they are doing and why we're seeing certain arcs crop up now. I also think they legitimately aren't sure if they are going to need beyond seven seasons. They could probably do it in seven, would probably feel like it's a bit too spread out in eight... so, maybe their magic number is somewhere between the two.

 

I think they've realized they *can't* wrap the whole thing up in just under 20 more hours, but that doesn't mean they need to extend it for thirty more hours.  They might just do extra episodes for Season Seven or a shorter season for Season 8.  It might well be that they're still feeling their way on that one.  And yeah, I've been thinking myself that the Iron Born storyline might take more than one season to resolve. 

 

One issue is that the way things are going its hard to see how Cersei could last until Season 8, but once she meets her inevitable demise the show loses a lot of its driving power and the same goes for a lot of other human villains as well. 

[blixie]

 

the Iron Born storyline might take more than one season to resolve.

 

Ugh. No. Fuck.

 

 

One issue is that the way things are going its hard to see how Cersei could last until Season 8, but once she meets her inevitable demise the show loses a lot of its driving power and the same goes for a lot of other human villains as well.

 

Well it makes some sense that they have to shift from Cersei as Big Bad to Zombie Apocolypse as big bad. I assume the Faith Militant also will be the human BB in KL.

[BlackberryJam]

Oh yeah...I don't see Cersei as the main villain either, especially of the humans. The big human conflict comes when Dany invades Westeros and the battles that are happening in the North. If Cersei is still alive once Dany gets to KL, that's when she dies. If she's already dead, then come the Tyrells to negotiate and perhaps sacrifice Tommen.

 

Then Winter comes and the human villains aren't going to matter.

[Winnief]

the Iron Born storyline might take more than one season to resolve.

 

Ugh. No. Fuck.

 

Hey I don't like them either, all I'm saying is that there's actually a lot that happens; Balon dies, then Euron gets the Seastone chair at the Kingsmoot, Asha flees, the damn Iron Born start reaving in the Reach while the Tyrell armies are elsewhere, there will be the reinvasion of Oldtown, and then the resolution whatever it is which probably will be Theon taking advantage of the latecomer loophole to hold another Kingsmoot.  Be awfully hard to cram all of that into *one* season unless they had some of it happening off screen or related via flashback.

[benteen]

I'm kind of hoping we get a cold war between Cersei-run King's Landing and Tyrion-run Meereen myself.

[seacliffsal]

I just watched HBOs replay of season 1-wow, had I forgotten alot. However, what really stuck out to me what how Rickon saw or knew things. Like when Bran said that their mother would return with the others and Rickon just said 'no, they won't.' Then, after Ned was executed but before word reached Winterfell, Rickon told Bran that he saw Ned in the tombs and Bran, again, told him he was wrong. Therefore, I was wondering if during season 6 Rickon might reemerge as a seer. If this theme is carried out it would really give importance to Rickon as the story progresses. I could see Bran and his ability to warg combining his skill set with Rickon's and really making a strong duo. I know a lot of people have been speculating that Rickon will die this season, but just based on previous storyline, I think he could start emerging as a future hope during this upcoming season.

[Chris24601]

I dunno... Seers who get things right all the time are almost always doomed in fiction, particularly once their prophetic abilities start to get reliable.

Too much prophecy and he becomes a dead man walking. I also think his future is greatly dependent upon Bran's choices this season. Rickon might have a plot role as Lord of Winterfell if Bran decides to stay up North and be a tree/Old God.

But if Bran takes another path (the novels mention tunnels that a legendary figure is said to have escaped through and such plot points don't get added for no reason) then he's the surplus Little Lord and therefore potentially expendable (which coupled with being a reliable seer is NOT good for his long term health) especially since the story isn't over next season and Littlefinger and the Boltons both have a vested interest is making sure Sansa is the heir to Winterfell.

You could be right that Rickon could be a seer when we next meet him, but I wouldn't be surprised if his imminent death is one of his visions too.

[Constantinople]

I'm kind of hoping we get a cold war between Cersei-run King's Landing and Tyrion-run Meereen myself.

 

I'm hoping we get a Cold War between the Walkers and the rest of Westeros,as has been hinted at since the pilot.

 

Not that I really expect to see if this season.

[Avaleigh]

If Ghost dies this season I'm on the fence about whether or not we're going to get another batch of direwolf pups the way I always assumed we would. Nymeria kills any wolf that tries to mount her and I can't see Nymeria and Shaggydog ever mating because, gross, so maybe direwolf pups in A Dream of Spring won't be happening after all. 

[ElizaD]

No sign of the Tarlys yet, but I'm sticking with my prediction of Euron heading to the Reach.

 

I'd predicted that Victarion would somehow get himself killed in Meereen and that he existed to give Dany her ships, so a Yara/Victarion merge seems odd to me even though it's now been reported that she heads east: does he have an actual post-battle plot in TWOW, then? Though the logic is weak, I guess Dany could just give her command of those ships from season 4 after Tyrion confirms Theon's identity, but Dany/Tyrion/Yara/Theon seems like such a weird cast.

 

There's been so much speculation about Rickon dying that I now think it will happen, and it'll be depressing as hell. There's just no light at the end of the tunnel. Tommen, Myrcella, Shireen, Rickon - is Sweetrobin going to be the only little kid who doesn't die horribly? There's going to be absolutely nothing to celebrate about the Starks returning to their ruined home if Ned, Cat, Robb and Rickon have all been brutally killed, and as a show bonus Winterfell is also the place where Sansa was raped. Even though Sophie has done her usual hype and IIRC Liam Cunningham also mentioned she has a good season, either Ramsay or Littlefinger killing Rickon because of Sansa (for revenge or to make her a more valuable pawn) would make her likely efforts to rally the Northern lords look laughably worthless by comparison, especially if the Umbers turn out to be traitors so that the Starks and Boltons have equal support in the North and Jon/Sansa would lose the battle without Littlefinger's Vale cavalry.

[ElizaD]

One further comment about the Rickon rumor: this is the first time that I've felt that Sansa being the younger queen of the prophecy has seemed possible, if Littlefinger kills Rickon to make her his puppet queen and Jon says no to kingship despite wearing Stark clothes in the set photos. I still find Rickon dying more likely than Sansa becoming queen, though. She's been treated like such a joke and as second best to the male characters in her storylines than I can't believe she'll ever get to be genuinely useful: if the story was leading to her becoming an important figure, she wouldn't have been written as so utterly stupid and passive that when Sophie hypes her season 6 storyline the idea of Sansa not being a mess is deemed so out of character that it can only be the result of the showrunners caving to pressure from her fans. But Sansa as Littlefinger's puppet queen, at the head of an army that attacks Casterly Rock where a lot of theories guess Cersei will run after torching KL? I'm not ready to predict that yet, but now it no longer seems crackpot. And after Cersei and Littlefinger are dead, maybe Sansa abdicates so Bran gets Winterfell, Tyrion gets the Rock, and Jon/Dany get the throne?

[SeanC]

If anything, I would think his season's developments would suggest that's much less likely.  Sansa (and Littlefinger, for that matter) are now firmly in the midst of the "realm is getting invaded by ice zombies" story; it wouldn't seem like going down to attack Casterly Rock would be much of a priority for her.