S31: Spoilers

[LadyChatts]

Well, I think we know who the 3 are.  Hopefully they do something that results in another person's ouster.  I'm thinking the person risking their safety is Joe (he may lose immunity but have something to help him).  Not sure who the other person could be, unless Stephen actually surprises us.  Or if it is one of the 3 ladies.  My guess is if Joe has an advantage/wins immunity, and Kelley/Abi/Ciera are safe, Stephen seems like the logical odd man out.  Hoping it is as fun as this past week, and not a predictable Ciera/Kelley/Abi boot.

 

In regards to spoilers: I know there's usually a certain level of uncertainty as to whether they are true or not.  I don't really get why people are so quick or desperate to disprove them.  I've seen on other sites people were glad that the Stephen boot was wrong because the whole boot list is wrong, and now they don't have to be spoiled anymore (which makes me wonder why they looked in a spoiler thread anyway, but why be so happy for the people that maybe wanted it to be right?  It doesn't ruin my enjoyment of it knowing what happens, and it isn't going to further my enjoyment not knowing what happens).  Either way a good/bad episode is just that-good/bad on its own.  In addition, I know people who are in denial all season and poke fun at people for believing any sort of spoiler, then really gloat that they were right and everyone else was stupid for believing it.  Again, I'd ask why are people so quick to be pessimistic about spoilers?  Why not just wait and see if it turns out to be right (unless it is an obvious fake).  The bootlist was off by 1 person.  It is possible Stephen/Ciera/Wigles/Joe/Keith are among the next 5 to go, just not in any particular order.  

 

If anything, I'm hoping Jeremy's idol is the result of Stephen's ouster (since he's been so concerned on getting Joe out that he didn't think about Jeremy at all).

Edited November 13, 2015 by LadyChatts

[wonald]

Yeah, that Fish. Always thinking about his own game. He is disgusting and despicable!

[Zuleikha]

I hate that Abi/Ciera/Kelley are being called the Witches Coven. It will be okay if they name themselves that, but the use of "deemed" makes it sound like something the other castaways are calling them, which is gross. I am hoping to have a season free of blatant sexism, and there's already been a nasty undercurrent in the way people have been talking about them.

[Oscirus]

And Broliance isn't a sexist term?  It works both ways.  Joe for the rc clue, Spencer for the Ic clue? Sounds about right. Meaning I'll be way off. I'm guessing the trio survives this week so either Joe or Stephen?  Editing wise, Stephen makes a lot of sense this week even with his twitter bragging.

 

 

[Zuleikha]

How is Brolliance sexist? It's descriptive. There's nothing negative about the term "bro."

[LadyChatts]

I thought they named themselves the broalliance.  I get all confused with alliance names and where they originate.  The witches coven could really come from anyone, for any reason.  Someone might say it out of spite because the girls are ruining the alliance's plan by not just going home quietly, someone like Keith might say it as a joke. 

[Oscirus]

Bro can definitely be negative. In this context it can refer to a big dumb jock.

 

 

One thing I am worried about, and that some people may be right about, is that in regards to the boot list they might have had the Kelly's mixed up, and that Kelley Wentworth actually goes next, and Kelly Wigles finishes 4th.  That might make more sense given what we've seen, but I'm still holding out hope it is Stephen.  I'd be fine losing Tasha or Kimmi, too.  Though I really like everyone else left.

 

I wouldn't worry about that. Kelley has gotten a great edit. I have a hard time believing that they'd waste such an edit on her if she was a midseason boot. Plus I just can't see Kelly getting that much further.

[LadyChatts]

See, I thought last season Jenn was getting a good edit, one that might actually be foreshadowing a possible winner or someone who went deep into the game.  The merge happens, she plays her idol, gets spared, but her alliance is still Pagonged and she threw in the towel.  Quit without officially quitting.  Though I know she said she talked with everyone until she was blue in the face and finally gave up, knowing no one was going to crack.  However, Kelley has been playing a pretty smart game.  I do hope it is leading somewhere.  Joe seems to have a fondness for Wentworth, so we'll see if they end up working together this week and that they can successfully flip a majority.  With numbers getting down among possible alliances, I wonder if we will be seeing vote splits, idol fear or not.

 

Where is a good old fashioned Marquesas style coconut chopping challenge when you need one?  That certainly foiled a final 4 back then!

Edited November 13, 2015 by LadyChatts

[wonald]

See, I thought last season Jenn was getting a good edit, one that might actually be foreshadowing a possible winner or someone who went deep into the game.  The merge happens, she plays her idol, gets spared, but her alliance is still Pagonged and she threw in the towel.  Quit without officially quitting.  

 

Bingo. Jenn was played up bc sh would play her idol in a crucial moment..

A lot of edit-focused people are saying that Kelley got her gamebot good edit to build up to this move which was exactly like Jenn's and now her story is ovah.

[ProfCrash]

I don't think Jenn quit. She ran into a brick wall that was Dan. Dan would not flip because he was so set on the idea that flippers don't win. Without Dan flipping, Sierra was not flipping because they didn't have the numbers. We saw how Dan talked to Shirin about flipping. I have no doubt he did the same thing when approached by Jenn and Joe.

 

If Jenn had done what Ciera is doing, which is exactly what Shirin was trying to do, people would say she is desperate and it won't work. So Jenn was screwed no matter what she did. She choose just to chill and enjoy the beach because Dan was an idiot.

 

I don't really have a problem with that. She would have been criticized no matter what she did.

[anthonyd46]

And Broliance isn't a sexist term?  It works both ways.  Joe for the rc clue, Spencer for the Ic clue? Sounds about right. Meaning I'll be way off. I'm guessing the trio survives this week so either Joe or Stephen?  Editing wise, Stephen makes a lot of sense this week even with his twitter bragging.

Only reason I dont think its joe it says the person is risking their safety. Joe is far from safe he knows he loses immunity he could be gone so he's not really risking his safety there.

Bingo. Jenn was played up bc sh would play her idol in a crucial moment..

A lot of edit-focused people are saying that Kelley got her gamebot good edit to build up to this move which was exactly like Jenn's and now her story is ovah.

A big clue with some people is SPV which is second person views. What are other players in the edit saying about that player. I thought Jenn was getting a great edit too and she didn't quit either, but how many people in the game ever talked about her being a threat to win? I think the only time I heard that was from Will on Jenns boot episode. How have people talked about Kelley so far? Its probably important to go back and assess what peoples comments are about her. Thats usually pretty important. 

I don't think Jenn quit. She ran into a brick wall that was Dan. Dan would not flip because he was so set on the idea that flippers don't win. Without Dan flipping, Sierra was not flipping because they didn't have the numbers. We saw how Dan talked to Shirin about flipping. I have no doubt he did the same thing when approached by Jenn and Joe.

 

If Jenn had done what Ciera is doing, which is exactly what Shirin was trying to do, people would say she is desperate and it won't work. So Jenn was screwed no matter what she did. She choose just to chill and enjoy the beach because Dan was an idiot.

 

I don't really have a problem with that. She would have been criticized no matter what she did.

Good point Dan is just ridicolous. 

[Wings]

PC has gone too far and now I see it is over the cliff.   Witches coven and Broalliance, sexist?  Come on.  

 

ETA-  that would be political correctness not Pro Crash!  

Edited November 13, 2015 by wings707

[Wings]

 

 

 

Only reason I dont think its joe it says the person is risking their safety. Joe is far from safe he knows he loses immunity he could be gone so he's not really risking his safety there.

 

 

No one is safe, so there is that; it could be anyone.  If it is Joe, it could mean he is not voting with his alliance.  He wants Fishbach out and Jeremy doesn't.   Anyone on the big alliance who decided the voting decision does not serve them could step out.  The 3 bottom women could be talked into voting for anyone besides themselves so they are ripe for the picking.  They have no power alone yet give another the power in numbers they might need.  

[anthonyd46]

No one is safe, so there is that; it could be anyone.  If it is Joe, it could mean he is not voting with his alliance.  He wants Fishbach out and Jeremy doesn't.   Anyone on the big alliance who decided the voting decision does not serve them could step out.  The 3 bottom women could be talked into voting for anyone besides themselves so they are ripe for the picking.  They have no power alone yet give another the power in numbers they might need.  

Kimmi and Keith have to consider themselves safe

[Wings]

Kimmi and Keith have to consider themselves safe

 

 

They probably do. 

[ProfCrash]

I think Jeremy has convinced Stephen, Kimmi, and Keith that they are a final four. I wouldn't be surprised if that was his idea of an ideal final four to be honest with you.

[wonald]

At this point in the game, I think Jeremy's final ppl were Tasha, Stephen, and Kimmi.

[anthonyd46]

Is Kimmi my number one pick this week? No. However, you have to at least consider it because Kimmi was the center of the last Women's alliance story maybe this comes back again. Add that with the Facebook thing. Add that with a "safe" person jumps for an advantage. Add that with Monica's comments of Kimmi post game saying Kimmi said she should have listened to Monica. All this has to at least get Kimmi a mention in the possible boot candidate list this week. I would say right now Stephen, Ciera, Joe, Kimmi, and both Kelly's are the ones on the short list this week for boot possibilities from what we have seen and know so far. Anyone else would really been a legit shock (Keith,Jeremy,Abi,Tasha,Spencer). So really about half the cast could be booted this week and we could call it "expected" from what we have seen and know.

[LadyChatts]

The only reason I think the person risking their safety is Joe, is because he does have a lot to lose if he doesn't win immunity and he decides to swim for the advantage (which he may not even get).  He knows that Stephen has been leading the charge to get rid of him.  His #1 ally in Savage is gone.  He got called out last week as being the possible 4th in Jeremy's alliance.  Jeremy doesn't seem ready to get rid of him and with Savage gone he may want to still protect his shield.  There are other people that would be considered expendable that he could argue for (namely Ciera, Abi, or Wentworth).  Stephen is a good choice to keep around only because he's overplaying his hand and has such tunnel vision on one person, that Jeremy could turn it around on him being dangerous.  Where does he go if he manages to get Joe out?  Will he then realize that Jeremy is also his JT?  The only other people I can think of would be the 3 ladies who jump and try to swim for it, as they seem next on the chopping block.

 

Based on spoilers, I'd say Kimmi, Stephen, Ciera, or Wigles go this week.  Wigles would be my long shot, just because there has been absolutely nothing leading up to her boot until this point.  And she's barely gotten any screen time.  I think there's a possibility Joe could go if he loses immunity and doesn't get the advantage.  The biggest shock for me would be anyone listed in the final 3.

 

I don't really have a problem with that. She would have been criticized no matter what she did.

 

 

This is what's funny to me in regards to Ciera this season.  Going into the Hali boot, Shirin/Jenn/Joe/Hali thought they had flipped Sierra and Tyler, and that they had Will.  So they went into that vote thinking they had a majority, and realized they didn't.  In fact, I don't believe they realized Will had ever flipped until Joe was voted off and it was discussed at TC.  Anyway, Jenn kind of threw in the towel because no one was flipping and she knew it.  She hated the people she was with and in post boot interviews criticized them for their lack of game play and people like Dan saying he'd rather finish 6th than flip.  Yet, we didn't see any of that on the show.  We just saw Jenn wanting to get voted out.  She got criticized for throwing in the towel and not trying to do anything to save herself or get anyone to flip.  Yet, we see Ciera doing exactly that and she's getting called out.  It's why I'm glad she's not going down without a fight.  At least this season, Ciera might get through to people.

Edited November 13, 2015 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

http://www.survivorfever.net/s31_press_images_ep9.html

 

Press images.  Looking at these two specifically:

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/images31/s31_press_images_ep9/s31_press_images_ep9_0022.jpg(Keith talking to Stephen on the beach)

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/images31/s31_press_images_ep9/s31_press_images_ep9_0023.jpg(Joe and Kelly on the beach)

 

Is there the possibility Joe loses and Stephen is maybe trying to rally people to vote for him?  It looks like Joe is kind of down, and that Keith might be in a serious discussion with Stephen (although we know it doesn't take Joe to lose for Stephen to start plotting his demise).

[Sarahsmile416]

Or the Joe scene could be from the beginning of the episode and he is just bemoaning what had happened to Kelly.

Maybe that's just wishful thinking lol

[LadyChatts]

Or the Joe scene could be from the beginning of the episode and he is just bemoaning what had happened to Kelly.

Maybe that's just wishful thinking lol

 

I'm definitely going with that possibility, too (partly because of wishful thinking).  Some of those pics look like they could be from the aftermath from the TC.  Now people might be thinking, who else has an idol, will it be played, and with Savage gone, will anyone be compelled to flip.  The looks at TC were shock, but different kinds of shock.  I wonder if Joe realized, by telling Ciera and Wentworth that Kelley was going home, what the aftermath would be.  He didn't believe she had an idol, but did he tell her that just in case-and did he think that those 3 would vote Stephen, not Savage.

Edited November 13, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Sarahsmile416]

I'm definitely going with that possibility, too (partly because of wishful thinking). Some of those pics look like they could be from the aftermath from the TC. Now people might be thinking, who else has an idol, will it be played, and with Savage gone, will anyone be compelled to flip. The looks at TC were shock, but different kinds of shock. I wonder if Joe realized, by telling Ciera and Wentworth that Kelley was going home, what the aftermath would be. He didn't believe she had an idol, but did he tell her that just in case-and did he think that those 3 would vote Stephen, not Savage.

That was certainly what I thought. I doubt he had any inkling that they were planning on voting out Savage. After all, Stephen was the only other name that they had been bandying about so it was not completely crazy that he would assume that the three would vote for Stephen.

I suspect as much as he respected and liked Kelley's moves for Survivor reasons, he did not like it for personal reasons. After all, he had a relationship with Savage and yes Savage clearly protected him so he would definitely be upset about his going home. And it makes sense that Kelly would be the one he would share that with. It seems he has been fairly close to Wigglesworth lately...

[wonald]

From Savage:

 

 

And I get to be on the jury with Kass and others, and we get to choose a truly great ambassador for one of the greatest seasons in the history of Survivor.  All I can say to the fans is stay tuned. Tribal is fascinating, brilliant, fast-paced, cut-throat, and it's a wild wild ride."

 

" truly great ambassador" = someone that he aligned with = Jeremy or Joe.

[bdestroyer88]

From Savage:

 

 

" truly great ambassador" = someone that he aligned with = Jeremy or Joe.

I'm guessing Jeremy. Probst hasn't been that high on Joe this season and says he has a taught road ahead, which leads me to believe Joe's gone soon...

[Sarahsmile416]

I'm guessing Jeremy. Probst hasn't been that high on Joe this season and says he has a taught road ahead, which leads me to believe Joe's gone soon...

Are we watching the same season? Probst hasn't been high on Joe? All he does is compliment the guy every single episode. I'm not saying that I think Joe wins but this reasoning doesn't make sense to me.

[LadyChatts]

Where the Probst praise differs is he does admit that Joe has more of an uphill battle than Jeremy.  Now, it would be some sort of giveaway if he said that Joe was absolutely fine at concealing what a threat he is, when that's been far from the truth.  The longer Joe is in this game, the longer shot he is to win the whole thing.  Eventually even Jeremy will realize he doesn't need the shield anymore.  I'm betting we will probably start seeing more of Jeremy in the very near future, especially if he is the winner.  My guess is he has an idol play coming up and that'll be his turning point.  And Tasha, I think we will probably see the side of her come out that costs her the million.  I think it could possibly be a close vote between Spencer and Jeremy, but there will be more Bayon on the jury, and Jeremy likely has more loyal allies that may respect his game play a little more.  Spencer so far has just been extremely lucky and hasn't done much else, and Jeremy may use that to his advantage.  Throw in being an expectant father and they might as well make the check out right there.

[Jextella]

From Savage:

 

 

" truly great ambassador" = someone that he aligned with = Jeremy or Joe.

 

Yep.  My vote is Jeremy since he is more of a game runner than Joe.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Jextella

[Sarahsmile416]

No, that is true. I think Probst is honest about Joe's chances but I still don't think that is the same thing about being hard on Joe, so I guess that's where I disagree.

On Tasha, I suspect the seeds have already been sown in her public argument with Kass. I'm sure more will come.

From Savage:

" truly great ambassador" = someone that he aligned with = Jeremy or Joe.

On a completely different note, is Savage a pretentious blowhard or what? A truly great ambassador? Let's not overstate this...he is not running for friggin president, Savage. This is Survivor.

[LadyChatts]

I usually brush off comments like Savage's.  Last season Max Dawson said people would be shitting their pants at how great the second half of the season went.  I think people did a lot of things during the second half of the season, but being that happy at how great it was going wasn't one of them.  Most castaways hype their season and the outcome as being the greatest ever.  Of course, who wants to diss their own season?  No one wants their season to be put on that list.  Plus, they see and hear way more than we ever do, so what they think might make it to TV and be spectacular isn't always the case.  

 

I'd have to wait and see how it plays out, but right now, it looks like Jeremy is getting an easy victory.  I'm not saying he didn't put effort into it but up against Spencer and Tasha, I can see where he would walk away with the million.  Spencer is well liked, but so far, hasn't done much in terms of game play.  He's in a majority alliance, and likely will not be making any big moves of his own because he got scooped up.  Tasha, well, she doesn't appear to be well liked.  Whether that is the reason she loses or whether she loses for the same circumstances as Spencer (seen as not really playing the game post merge and just latching onto whatever Jeremy did) remains to be seen.  I think, right now, the only people capable of beating Jeremy would be Joe and Kelley Wentworth, outside chance Kelly Wigles.  I'd throw Keith in for likability, but I believe the jury would award game play over that in this case.  Now, up against someone truly detestable?  That's another story.

 

ETA: Here is something else Andrew said:

 

[Fans] can expect the second half of the season to be truly epic. There's something that will happen in the game that's never happened in 15 years and 30 seasons of Survivor.

 

 

Does Joe stay on an immunity run?  Two idols are played at a TC and they have to re-vote, since no votes count?  Someone intentionally and methodically causes a rock draw but somehow all their alliance members are safe?  Or could we have a tie vote for the first time at the FTC?  Has anyone ever played their idol on another, only to get themselves voted out (and I don't mean that JT/Parvati scenario-like actually got up at TC, said 'this is for you' and promptly gotten booted).  

Edited November 14, 2015 by LadyChatts

[bdestroyer88]

Great theory for how the next couple of weeks could play out from bbf2Venom on Survivor Sucks:

 

"Probst's assessment (in his Gordon Holmes and Dalton Ross interviews this week) about how he's surprised that Stephen is so dead-set on Joe and how he thinks its a bad idea to be so dead set on one person makes me feel like it leads to Stephen's downfall soon, probably next episode.

However, Stephen seems to be incredibly close with both Jeremy and Kimmi post game and describes them both as basically being family, so I highly doubt they're a part of getting rid of him early-jury.

I think that a likely scenario could be that the big Bayon alliance will split the votes between Ciera & Kelley, (or between Kelley and Abi Maria, or whatever) and Joe decides to go rogue and vote for Fish and tell the coven members to do the same to save their own hide. He obviously has to get one other person to go along with that as well, press clips for next episode seem to show that Joe is talking a lot with Wiglesworth, so its possible he gets her to join in too.

So Stephen/Jeremy/Kimmi/Tasha/Spencer/Keith think that Joe/Wigles are with them and that they're all splitting the vote 4-4 between Wentworth and Ciera, but Joe/Wigles actually join the 3 Amigas and vote out Fish.

So now Joe is target number one after Stephen's ouster, and this could explain why Wiglesworth could potentially leave in the next few votes, Joe wins immunity so they take out Wigles because she's now blindly loyal to him. (And then maybe he wins immunity again so they decide to go back to the plan of voting out Wentworth/Ciera, only this time, they target Ciera instead of Wentworth BECAUSE they want to keep the better challenge performer around in order to maximize Joe's chances of losing immunity against the field.)

I think something along these lines would make perfect sense as to why the next four boots are Stephen/Wigles/Ciera/Joe in some order and fits with the clues we have already. The aftermath stuff I'm not sure about, but I have a pretty strong feeling about the part where Stephen's obsession with Joe becomes his downfall due to Joe taking advantage of a split vote somehow."

Edited November 14, 2015 by bdestroyer88

[anthonyd46]

I usually brush off comments like Savage's.  Last season Max Dawson said people would be shitting their pants at how great the second half of the season went.  I think people did a lot of things during the second half of the season, but being that happy at how great it was going wasn't one of them.  Most castaways hype their season and the outcome as being the greatest ever.  Of course, who wants to diss their own season?  No one wants their season to be put on that list.  Plus, they see and hear way more than we ever do, so what they think might make it to TV and be spectacular isn't always the case.  

 

I'd have to wait and see how it plays out, but right now, it looks like Jeremy is getting an easy victory.  I'm not saying he didn't put effort into it but up against Spencer and Tasha, I can see where he would walk away with the million.  Spencer is well liked, but so far, hasn't done much in terms of game play.  He's in a majority alliance, and likely will not be making any big moves of his own because he got scooped up.  Tasha, well, she doesn't appear to be well liked.  Whether that is the reason she loses or whether she loses for the same circumstances as Spencer (seen as not really playing the game post merge and just latching onto whatever Jeremy did) remains to be seen.  I think, right now, the only people capable of beating Jeremy would be Joe and Kelley Wentworth, outside chance Kelly Wigles.  I'd throw Keith in for likability, but I believe the jury would award game play over that in this case.  Now, up against someone truly detestable?  That's another story.

 

ETA: Here is something else Andrew said:

 

 

Does Joe stay on an immunity run?  Two idols are played at a TC and they have to re-vote, since no votes count?  Someone intentionally and methodically causes a rock draw but somehow all their alliance members are safe?  Or could we have a tie vote for the first time at the FTC?  Has anyone ever played their idol on another, only to get themselves voted out (and I don't mean that JT/Parvati scenario-like actually got up at TC, said 'this is for you' and promptly gotten booted).  

 

Never has happened in history? Thats interesting. I wonder if its the no votes thing. As far as the ambassador thing like it was mentioned here you can't take that stuff too serious after Maxes comments. Joe winning all the immunities could be something that happens. 

[anthonyd46]

http://survivorsucks.com/topic/124291/S31-E9-Solving-Riddles?page=3

 

Order of the pics is here. Joe is standing next to the immunity necklace near the end of the pictures. Looks like he wins again. 

 

Yep.  My vote is Jeremy since he is more of a game runner than Joe.

Savage did think pretty highly of Joe and if Joe wins every single immunity and wins the FTC easily I think that could be ambassador status. Plus his insane popularity. 

 

Also confirmed :

 

http://www.cbs.com/schedule/2 hour episode next week.

Edited November 14, 2015 by anthonyd46

[LadyChatts]

Never has happened in history? Thats interesting. I wonder if its the no votes thing. As far as the ambassador thing like it was mentioned here you can't take that stuff too serious after Maxes comments. Joe winning all the immunities could be something that happens. 

 

I think winning, what would it be, 12 II would be a record.  I'm thinking it'll be idols being played at TC that cancel out each sides votes (or maybe someone uses whatever the advantage is that cancels out all the votes).  I don't know that it'll be something too radical, but there's a lot of possibilities that have happened at least once.

 

Which brings me to the advantage-any word on what it might be?  I'm assuming it is more than the double vote, but I know last year people thought maybe it was some cout d'état advantage (before we found out what it is).  Maybe that is what happens this season.

 

Seeing as how Stephen and Joe are on the same team for the RC, I guess Stephen can't whine that Joe is off socializing with the group by himself and having people get into his head (or him getting into theirs).

[anthonyd46]

I think winning, what would it be, 12 II would be a record.  I'm thinking it'll be idols being played at TC that cancel out each sides votes (or maybe someone uses whatever the advantage is that cancels out all the votes).  I don't know that it'll be something too radical, but there's a lot of possibilities that have happened at least once.

 

Which brings me to the advantage-any word on what it might be?  I'm assuming it is more than the double vote, but I know last year people thought maybe it was some cout d'état advantage (before we found out what it is).  Maybe that is what happens this season.

 

Seeing as how Stephen and Joe are on the same team for the RC, I guess Stephen can't whine that Joe is off socializing with the group by himself and having people get into his head (or him getting into theirs).

5 is the record for II, but 12 would be insane.

 

Some more thoughts on that advantage. The teaser said someones safety is at risk going for the advantage. I would have to think that person would be in the boot conversation after jumping if they are considered safe right now(like mike with the auction). I'm leaning towards its like the Mike with the auction moment. I know Stephen seems like the Flashy pick right now, but don't count out Keith, Kimmi, or Spencer (who thinks he's safe right now) jumping for it. Abi, Ciera, Kelley are all on the outs so them jumping wouldn't comprise their safety they are already unsafe. Its those middle of the pack people you got to watch out for ones that wouldn't be the next target necessarily, but do something to make them them the next target. Such as Monica in Episode 5. I don't think Joe feels he's safe so him jumping makes no sense. So I the jumper has to be one of Stephen, Kimmi, Keith, or Spencer. Everyone else is either too far in the safe or too far in the unsafe to be considered at "risk" for jumping.

[Oscirus]

Andrew's ambassador comment eliminates a few people (Ciera, Abi, Stephen) but it doesn't really single anybody out.

 

I usually brush off comments like Savage's.  Last season Max Dawson said people would be shitting their pants at how great the second half of the season went.

 

Wasn't watching last season but didn't people say that Max and Shirin all but gave away the winner in their interviews.

 

I wasn't even considering the two kellys being mixed up on the list until you bought that up, LC. Now I'm starting to think it could be true since a lot of her editing was focused on her idol. I'm not 100 percent set yet but I'm probably picking her as my backup boot now.

 

 

[Jextella]

On a completely different note, is Savage a pretentious blowhard or what? A truly great ambassador? Let's not overstate this...he is not running for friggin president, Savage. This is Survivor.

 

So true.  I like Savage (and Kass) for a few reasons I won't get into but I think he and Kass both like the camera and it's a big part of why they do the show - and why they act the way they do while they are on the show.  They are both trial lawyers and acting is part of their jobs.   They like the attention - ain't no doubt about it in my book.

 

Their desire to tear up the Ponderosa and deliver an "ambassador" is IMO, a ploy for further attention.   It keeps us Googling, reading, and watching videos. 

Edited November 14, 2015 by Jextella

[anthonyd46]

So true.  I like Savage (and Kass) for a few reasons I won't get into but I think he and Kass both like the camera and it's a big part of why they do the show - and why they act the way they do while they are on the show.  They are both trial lawyers and acting is part of their jobs.   They like the attention - ain't no doubt about it in my book.

 

Their desire to tear up the Ponderosa and deliver an "ambassador" is IMO, a ploy for further attention.   It keeps us Googling, reading, and watching videos. 

However they put it we know from watching the show there isn't more than 3 or 4 people right now that have any shot at winning.

 

Keith, Kelly, Tasha, Kimmi, Stephen, Abi, Ciera 0% Chance

 

Jeremy, Kelley, Spencer, Joe are the only candidates. Joe is the complete longshot the only way we get him is if he makes the greatest run in survivor history and wins every immunity. This is highly unlikely, but there might have been some hints of this from things we've heard and seen but I'm not giving this more than a 5% shot of happening. Spencer is definitely  getting the growth edit, however, is the John Cochran Camaroan one or the typical falls short one ? Kelley is being featured every episode for random reasons at times while she could be booted as soon as this week I think she's gotta be on the contender list. Jeremy is running the show. He has this in the bag unless he gets taken down at some point. 

[Jextella]

However they put it we know from watching the show there isn't more than 3 or 4 people right now that have any shot at winning.

 

Keith, Kelly, Tasha, Kimmi, Stephen, Abi, Ciera 0% Chance

 

Jeremy, Kelley, Spencer, Joe are the only candidates. Joe is the complete longshot the only way we get him is if he makes the greatest run in survivor history and wins every immunity. This is highly unlikely, but there might have been some hints of this from things we've heard and seen but I'm not giving this more than a 5% shot of happening. Spencer is definitely  getting the growth edit, however, is the John Cochran Camaroan one or the typical falls short one ? Kelley is being featured every episode for random reasons at times while she could be booted as soon as this week I think she's gotta be on the contender list. Jeremy is running the show. He has this in the bag unless he gets taken down at some point. 

This is so clearly true that I don't even think I need spoilers.  Unless none of the four make it to the end, I think it's safe to assume one of them is the winner.  So the only question is which one.   I'd be ok with any of them so I guess I'm good 'till the end without knowing who wins with certainty.

[Zuleikha]

I feel like the bootlist makes it clear who can win, but if I didn't have it, I wouldn't rule out Ciera or Tasha. Female winners are often underedited compared to male winners.

 

However, since we do have the bootlist and currently believe in its f6, I think Stephen's out next. He and Savage seem to have kissed and made up at some point, so I feel like Stephen has to be a fairly early Ponderosa visitor to give him and Savage time to bond. Once too many other people are there, I think they would just avoid each other rather than talk though their issues. Both the editing and the timing seem right for the Joe/Stephen clash to happen. Both are aware that if they let Kelley/Ciera/Abi get picked off, they won't have good numbers for a clash. I also feel for the specific way the season's been hyped, something has to happen to make Jeremy/Tasha feel they've lost control at some point because otherwise, we're looking at a pretty predictable march to f3 with a bunch of satellite members not willing to take a risk and the more risk taking people unable to get numbers. I also suspect Ciera may be a later boot than the bootlist has her since she and Savage don't seem to have worked through any issues with each other. 

[wonald]

 I also suspect Ciera may be a later boot than the bootlist has her since she and Savage don't seem to have worked through any issues with each other. 

 

Well, Kass and Andy seem to have worked out their issues (with plenty of alcohol) in Ponderosa and yet Kass still likened Andy to a toddler.

[anthonyd46]

I feel like the bootlist makes it clear who can win, but if I didn't have it, I wouldn't rule out Ciera or Tasha. Female winners are often underedited compared to male winners.

 

However, since we do have the bootlist and currently believe in its f6, I think Stephen's out next. He and Savage seem to have kissed and made up at some point, so I feel like Stephen has to be a fairly early Ponderosa visitor to give him and Savage time to bond. Once too many other people are there, I think they would just avoid each other rather than talk though their issues. Both the editing and the timing seem right for the Joe/Stephen clash to happen. Both are aware that if they let Kelley/Ciera/Abi get picked off, they won't have good numbers for a clash. I also feel for the specific way the season's been hyped, something has to happen to make Jeremy/Tasha feel they've lost control at some point because otherwise, we're looking at a pretty predictable march to f3 with a bunch of satellite members not willing to take a risk and the more risk taking people unable to get numbers. I also suspect Ciera may be a later boot than the bootlist has her since she and Savage don't seem to have worked through any issues with each other. 

Ciera is showing whining too much to be a winner. Tasha has completely abandoned Abi after they built up that story. Thats not good for either. Compare that to Jeremy who we know who his allies are Kimmi, Stephen, Joe, etc. Tasha was supposed to keep Abi in line so she was useful for her, but now Abi is on the complete different side of Tasha and we aren't explained why? Also Abi goes from major character to background character? 

Edited November 15, 2015 by anthonyd46

[Jextella]

Hopefully.

My soul needs a F3 of Abi, Ciera and Wentworth. Fuck the brolliance.

I know many are down on Cierra and her plea's for the middle grounders to "start playing the game", but she has to do that if she has any hope of staying in the game.  She needs more numbers.  I can't slight her for that.  After this week's tribal, I wouldn't mind seeing these 3 at the end.  It would be super fun to see them band together and do what Wentworth said....go up the ladder one by one. That would be beyond entertaining.

[anthonyd46]

I know many are down on Cierra and her plea's for the middle grounders to "start playing the game", but she has to do that if she has any hope of staying in the game.  She needs more numbers.  I can't slight her for that.  After this week's tribal, I wouldn't mind seeing these 3 at the end.  It would be super fun to see them band together and do what Wentworth said....go up the ladder one by one. That would be beyond entertaining.

Many of us here are just basing our thoughts on 30 seasons of survivor editing. It is highly possible they could change the editing this season, but from what we have seen and what we have know edits like Ciera don't win. Like I said earlier SPV is important. What are people saying about Ciera? Is she a winner threat? Are people saying this? We aren't seeing people saying she's a winner. We hear Jeremy is running the game. We hear Joe has to go because he can immunity his way all the way. We don't hear these things about Ciera.

[Zuleikha]

It is highly possible they could change the editing this season, but from what we have seen and what we have know edits like Ciera don't win.

We're only two episodes post merge. There's a lot of time for the edits to change. Ciera wouldn't be getting a running-the-game edit right now because she's literally not. No one would say it, and the editing would be incoherent. But if the bootlist is wrong and Ciera/Abi/Kelley sieze control, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw it. Also, female winners get different edits than male winners. They get fewer confessionals and fewer clips of other players praising them. If they're with a male partner in FTC, the focus is usually on how the man lost the game rather than how the woman won it.

 

I don't think the bootlist is wrong, though, much as I wish it were. I'd love a Ciera/Abi/Kelley final 3 (ha! I would never have guessed I'd want Abi in the f3).

[LadyChatts]

I echo that Zuleikha!  At the start of the season I was perfectly happy with a Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha final 3.  As of right now, it bores me and looks like an easy win for Jeremy, the way things are going.  I always love an underdog story.  I kept waiting for the editors to quit teasing me last season and held out hope that all that talk of flippers never winning and people talking about big moves and Jenn's fabulous idol play was going to go somewhere.  Sadly, the only place it led was into the pit of despair.

 

Still, it is early.  I try not to buy into Probst and contestant hype, because they have to do it.  But I'm hoping this season lives up to it.

[anthonyd46]

I echo that Zuleikha!  At the start of the season I was perfectly happy with a Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha final 3.  As of right now, it bores me and looks like an easy win for Jeremy, the way things are going.  I always love an underdog story.  I kept waiting for the editors to quit teasing me last season and held out hope that all that talk of flippers never winning and people talking about big moves and Jenn's fabulous idol play was going to go somewhere.  Sadly, the only place it led was into the pit of despair.

 

Still, it is early.  I try not to buy into Probst and contestant hype, because they have to do it.  But I'm hoping this season lives up to it.

That Jenn failure was annoying it looked so promising. Yea I really don't have any problem with Jeremy, but it just looks too easy for him right now even without a boot list like I said its simply Jeremy running the show, Kelley with a lot of airtime, Spencer growing, and can Joe run the table? No one else has close to a winners story. 

[LadyChatts]

Some thoughts going into this week and with edits:

If Jeremy is in fact the winner, I have to think they will be bringing him out of the shadows at some point and show him running this game. Either that or suddenly paint Tasha and Spencer in a really horrible light to justify his win. I have no doubt Jeremy is running things, but I wish they would show us why he seems to have so much sway in getting people to vote his way and stand by him. Ciera is making the perfect point that out of that larger alliance, someone is at the bottom. I don't think this is a case of people not caring if they are at the bottom, I think the others are convinced it it not them. Stephen will no doubt be used to finally take out Joe, which makes me think Stephen is basically a pawn at this point. He can lead the charge, especially if it is a blindside (which blindsiding Joe is like hell freezing over, once he loses immunity he knows he's a dead man walking). But, will Jeremy be ready to get rid of him, or will people think Stephen is too dangerous to keep around and use what appears to be an obvious Joe boot to blindside him? Stephen has gotten such a bumbling edit this season with no game play other than obsessing about his modern day JT and following Jeremy. They've been building this since the second tribe swap, I hope something is coming because it is getting old. We get it.

While I'm inclined to believe that the final 6 is correct on the boot list, I will be curious if that FB messenger spoiler that pointed to Kimmi being out on day 24 will have any truth to it this coming week. I fully believe Monica was full of hot air at an embarrassing second run when she said that Kimmi may have made the wrong choice getting rid of her. But maybe she was onto something. Monica may be such an afterthought by the time Kimmi is booted, but I hope she is asked about her boot. If she makes the final 5 (because right now, Abi is slated to go 6th) I don't see how that's so horrible. Unless she does something to really rattle the game, I can't believe Jeremy would get rid of her yet. And why target Kimmi unless she brings it on herself? She just seems like a random choice out of all the women to go after at this point. Of course Jeremy may have been foreshadowing to something this week, when he talked about wanting to keep the likes of Fishbach around because once he didn't have shields, he'd need bullets. So Kimmi may be someone who makes a move for him and ends up paying for it.

In regards to winners, I'd throw Kelly Wigles name in as a complete long shot. But with or without spoilers, she isn't someone I would rule out. I don't see it happening, but we have seen next to nothing of Kelly practically all season. Aside from the first episode, the most screen time she got was this past week. Going by what Jeff said about her 'story', which I don't think has been told yet, that could be the ultimate re-write of history for the first ever runner up to come back and win on her second try. I think there's different things that could point to a Kelly win if I wasn't already spoiled, but I do agree, the pool looks slim with each passing week.

In regards to what Andrew said about the thing happening this season that has never happened before-I wonder if he's hyping that up because one of his bros does something that keeps them in the game and takes out one of his biggest enemies. (I've got my tinfoil hat ready if this 'never happened before' moment keeps a producer favorite in and sacrifices someone like Ciera or Wigles who might have momentarily gained an upper hand on the likes of Jeremy or Joe). Same with whatever this advantage is.

In thinking about what Andrew said, I wonder if someone makes a fake idol and actually pulls off convincing people it's real.

Edited November 15, 2015 by LadyChatts

[wonald]

 

 

Still, it is early.  I try not to buy into Probst and contestant hype, because they have to do it.  But I'm hoping this season lives up to it.

 

what probst hype? 

[Oscirus]

I would probably eliminate Joe from the list of likely winners, I don't think that they'd have that scene with Kelley where she pretty much calls him weak if he won.

 

Spencer I'm on the fence about. If he won, that Woo boot episode made him look pretty clueless. I'm not eliminating him yet, but he's on life support imo.