S30: Previews and Speculations

[BigRedCheese]

Dan is just convinced if we had seen him blubbering about missing his wife, we would all love him. That's how delusional he is, everybody misses their loved ones, I don't want the show to waste time showing people mopey about missing their loved ones, it would have just annoyed me.

[laurakaye]

One problem I have had this season with these so-called "super-fans" is that they were all trying to create a Survivor persona that has already been taken.  Rod trying to be Boston Rob.  Max and Shirin strutting sans clothing a la Hatch.  Dan attempting to be Rupert (I guess).  That doesn't work for me - it's painful to watch, and it's odd that these new players seem to think that simply adopting someone else's personality is their ticket to the million.  Give me a snarky Jenn or a stuck-in-a-dismal-alliance Sierra any day over someone thinking they are untouchable just because they stole someone else's character traits.

Dan is just convinced if we had seen him blubbering about missing his wife, we would all lo

It was that awful "Jeff.........(sob)........I love her........(sniff).........like you read about......." that made me want to punch my television.

[ElleryAnne]

One problem I have had this season with these so-called "super-fans" is that they were all trying to create a Survivor persona that has already been taken.  Rod trying to be Boston Rob.  Max and Shirin strutting sans clothing a la Hatch.  Dan attempting to be Rupert (I guess).  That doesn't work for me - it's painful to watch, and it's odd that these new players seem to think that simply adopting someone else's personality is their ticket to the million.

 

 

Yeah, it really is odd.  I'll give Max and Shirin (if she was imitating Hatch) a pass because 1) at least they were adopting a strategy, rather than just a personality, and 2) they copied someone who actually won the game in his first attempt.  Rodney and Dan appear to model themselves on past players who didn't even win on their first (or second or third) try and who owe half their fame to the fact that the show let them return googol-giggity times to keep trying.

 

 

I am very curious if Jeff will be asked for his final thoughts and what he said at the start of the season, being what he thought was the best ever.

 

 

It would make the entire season worth watching for me if someone asked Jeff at the reunion, "You said this was a great cast, but it's obvious to all viewers everywhere that they're the worst collection of casting mistakes the show has ever made.  Can you explain what the hell you were thinking?"  (Bonus if Jeff comes back with, "Yeah, we really dropped the ball.  That's why we let you vote for the next season!" and then tosses to the vote results.  Because a good segue is a good segue.)

 

I still fear something bad happening, because that is my nature, but holy hell.

 

 

Me, too.  I'm rooting for Mike by default, but I'm not very confident in his chances.  So I've been trying to think of ways to cushion the blow and make any win acceptable to me:

 

Mike:  beat the odds, never gave up, good at getting immunity, smart enough to keep an eye on others and figure out what they were up to.

Carolyn: beat the odds, good at challenges, smart enough to find a HII without a clue.

Rodney:  may have played a better social game than we saw since people trusted him.

Sierra:  may have played the best game she could based on her position in the alliance.

Will: *crickets* 

 

I don't like the "may have" options, but I guess I can blame editing at least in part.  It'll be a bad end to a bad season if I have to console myself that the winner may have been a better player than we saw.

 

The most positive way I can see things going is that Mike wins the next immunity, and Carolyn decides her best bet to save herself is to get Mike and Sierra to help her vote out Rodney instead.  (Then they inexplicably vote out Will next, and Mike/Carolyn/Sierra become the F3. Yay!  Oh, except that part probably won't happen.)

[LadyChatts]

I know Jeff would never admit he was wrong (at least, never as wrong as he was this time), but I would never criticise him for anything again if he actually pulled something like that at the reunion.  I'm expecting "most talked about season" (but we won't say it was all bad) blubbering to save face, before he quickly tries to move.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a good chunk of anything but S30 taking up time.  Talking with the potential S31 castoffs, for instance, in the audience with their bags packed.

 

I still want a 'best of' Rodney and Dan reel; where they say one thing, then are shown doing the exact opposite to make them look like completel idiots.  And they better show Rodney's reaction to Joaquin's blindside again.  That never gets old.  I wonder if Jiffy talks to Max if he'll get on his high horse like he did in interviews, and act as though the people he was playing the game with were the problem, not him.  I wouldn't mind Jiffy showing highlights of the likes of Rodney and Sierra talking a big game, but not making any moves and asking if that was all talk or not.  To Rodney's credit, he formed an end game sub alliance, but that's been about it.  I think I'm looking more forward to this than I originally was.  All I hear is a lot of people talking over each other to get their final word out, with hands up waiting to get called on by Jeff, even as they keep right on talking out of turn.  And then we see shots of So and her thought process of 'and I thought pre-jury Ponderosa with Vince, Nina, Lindsey, and Max was bad'.

[laurakaye]

All I hear is a lot of people talking over each other to get their final word out, with hands up waiting to get called on by Jeff, even as they keep right on talking out of turn.

This.  I love the visual of Dan & Co. trying to raise their hands higher than their fellow castaways, maybe throwing an elbow or two, to get Jeff's attention.

 

And Dan's reaction when he gets booed by the audience.  Because he'll be trying to figure out why it's not a standing ovation for his genius gameplay.

[LadyChatts]

How satisfying is the final tribal council?

People are going to be very satisfied. It fulfills. It delivers. It is exciting. It’s dramatic. It’s surprising. It’s got a huge momentum where we actually had to ask the network for more time – we were about four or five minutes, which is quite a long time for a TV show to be long. We had so much happening that we didn’t want to cut any of it out. It’s good. It’s definitely night to sit down, camp out and say “I’m Survivor-ing it from 8 to 11, and then I’m going to watch [David] Letterman retire.”

 

http://www.etonline.com/tv/164822_survivor_host_jeff_probst_on_season_30_finale_sexist_remarks_and_second_chance_ballot/

 

Here is Jiffy's take on the finale.  He again emphasizes that the fan vote is strictly the fans, not him or CBS.  They are waiting to divide tribes up on the way, to try and balance it out.  He also tries to re-assure there will be no pre-show alliances, because it can never work in the end.

 

From that same interview, here's what he had to say about Dan:

Dan is the one I’m most curious about. Dan is a likable guy, but you can’t make that many comments and blame it all on “Well they only showed one side of me.” I don’t go into the live shows looking to tear somebody apart, that’s not what Survivor is about, but I’m curious as a human to find out what’s behind all that. Was it coincidence that we ended up with three guys in the same season or did it become a group thing? This has never happened before. We’ve never had this many comments about women in one season. I’m curious to get to the bottom of it and to try and get to the truth of it without it being a Jerry Springer situation.

 

 

http://www.usmagazine.com/entertainment/news/jeff-probst-places-odds-on-survivor-30-finalists-dishes-on-season-31--2015205

 

This is his take on the final 5s odds to win.  Like the above ET article, and another one I posted from Parade, he believes Sierra and Will are extreme long shots.  Will having no shot because of the Shirin fall out, and Sierra because she hasn't made any moves.  Though I still wonder, maybe it's a red herring and Sierra ends up pulling a fast one that tips the scale in her favor.  Perhaps Jiffy is giving something away?  He continues to believe Mike's only chance is a challenge run, and that Rodney and Carolyn have the best odds.  In the US magazine link, he referenced what the BC tribe said at the beginning of the season: that one of them was going to win.  Wonder if that's another giveaway since he brought it up again.

 

My final prediction: Carolyn/Rodney/Will final 3; Mike in 4th, Sierra in 5th.  With Carolyn and Rodney, I see it going either way.  I believe the 3 NC + Shirin are going to be the deciding votes between those 2.

Edited May 20, 2015 by LadyChatts

[pennben]

 

My final prediction: Carolyn/Rodney/Will final 3; Mike in 4th, Sierra in 5th.

 

Ugh, this is my biggest fear because i think that's where Rodney can win it all.  Between the amount of alcohol needed for the Mad Men finale, and that needed for tonight, my liver is quite happy that there are no other finales I care about on the horizon.

[LadyChatts]

This.  I love the visual of Dan & Co. trying to raise their hands higher than their fellow castaways, maybe throwing an elbow or two, to get Jeff's attention.

 

And Dan's reaction when he gets booed by the audience.  Because he'll be trying to figure out why it's not a standing ovation for his genius gameplay.

 

It's moments like this where I wish Survivor was done like BB, with them having little idea just how they've been perceived by the outside world.  I can only imagine Dan being introduced onstage, coming out pulling the pirate war cry like his hero Rupert, expecting the audience to be on their feet and Jeff having to wait 10 minutes for all the cheering to stop-only to get booed.  And the expression of 'what happened?  Rupert did this and they loved him!  I'm a hero, too!'

[LakeGal]

I don't think Mike wins.  He has been working too hard to get in good with everyone that is up for votes for the next Survivor.  I think he really wants to win that vote and get back on there with some friends in place.  If he thought he won this season I don't think he would be working that hard.

 

I have this crazy feeling that Rodney is going to win.  I think he might have more friends on the jury than we think.  

[LadyChatts]

If Mike makes the final 3, I don't see how he loses.  In Rodney's case, in a final 3 with Carolyn and Will, I think he could pull it off.  Barely, but I believe he'd squeak by.  I can't see Shirin voting for either of the other 2, and she didn't seem to have any beef with Rodney out there.  Dan would probably vote Will or Rodney.  Tyler, if he felt really betrayed about Carolyn's vote, would likely vote for Rodney.  Mike and Sierra, I don't know.  Mike might respect Rodney's game enough to give him a vote, but I could see him also voting for Carolyn.  The 3 NC, Joe never had any ties to Carolyn, and I don't know that Jenn and Hali cared for her that much.  So I believe it could be a 5-3-0, or a 4-3-1 in that case.  I assumed that either Mike or Carolyn won, and the only reason they were both up for the S31 was as a decoy.  Given Jiffy's reaction to that being caught, I started wondering if maybe that wasn't the case.  He seems to think very highly of Carolyn and Rodney's chances, which is why I believe it could come down to those two (and Will, whose a non factor).  

 

Mike was smoozing past Survivors before S31 was even rumored.  So yeah, I totally believe he was milking people in hopes of getting alliances set or at least goodwill spread.  He seemed to be campaigning harder than Carolyn, or even Joe (whose a definite lock, so not like he really needed to).  Max said he was worried all the dirty30 ties would end up hurting them out there.  If only.

[blackwing]

Here is Jiffy's take on the finale.  He again emphasizes that the fan vote is strictly the fans, not him or CBS.  They are waiting to divide tribes up on the way, to try and balance it out.  He also tries to re-assure there will be no pre-show alliances, because it can never work in the end.

I am still skeptical when he says it's purely a fan vote.  Also, despite what he says, I don't think he can ensure there are no pre-show alliances.  Even if people end up on different tribes, if you look at the list and arrange in advance to team with 3 others, chances are pretty good you're going to have at least one of them on your tribe.  There will be pre-existing alliances, no doubt.

 

The only way to prevent that would have been to have like 80 men and 80 women up for consideration for the vote.  Picking 10 out of 16 for each, it's too easy to contact people.  If there were way more contenders it'd be too hard.  They could have contacted everyone who would want to return.  I find it hard to believe that out of the hundreds of former contestants they could only find 16 men and 16 women who hadn't had a second appearance and wanted to go again.

 

 

I am really afraid that it's looking more and more like the Rot is going to win.  Jeff wouldn't be complimenting him so much in recent interviews and saying his game was underestimated.  I also recall that Jeff said he really wants to meet the Rot's mom and see her take on her son.  But then there was the comment about "likeable"?  Hardly.

[cooker30]

I am really afraid that it's looking more and more like the Rot is going to win. Jeff wouldn't be complimenting him so much in recent interviews and saying his game was underestimated. I also recall that Jeff said he really wants to meet the Rot's mom and see her take on her son. But then there was the comment about "likeable"? Hardly.

I don't know, I just don't think that Rodney would have been edited was edited the wsy he was if he was the winner. They didn't have to show nearly as much of the birthday tantrum as they did and I can't see them showing Jeff ask rod if he felt entitled if rod won. Plus there's all the hot-headed behavior that was shown. I think presenting the winner they way they presented rodney only hurts tgeir brand. I mean is tgere really anyone who hinestly feels sorry for the guy because of the not winning rewards? And how many people out there are going to sit down to watch tonight and think "Oh plesse, please, please let Rodney win this!"? I doubt there are many in that category!

My final prediction is:

5th - rodney

4th- sierra

3rd - will

2nd - carolyn

Winner - mike

Less than an hour until we can srart to put thus season out of our misery:)

[LadyChatts]

I had to laugh at this tweet from Tyler:

 

Tyler Fredrickson
‏@TheTFreddy
Humble realization: I probably have a better chance of speaking on camera tonight if I'm in the audience.

 

 

Somehow he'd probably be just as ignored in the audience as he was on the show.  Or he'd wind up sitting in between Boston Rob and Russell.

[ljenkins782]

From that loved ones preview, I hate to say this (internet has made me cynical) but I'm getting a Jonny Fairplay vibe from Rodney sharing his breakthrough about his sister with his dad in front of everyone. Like he's hedging his bets about someone feeling for him and giving him the reward in case he doesn't earn it (because the history dictates that he won't.)