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The Winds Of Winter: Book 6 Will Arrive...Someday


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It really is one of the great ironies of ASOIAF that Mace's determination to see his daughter married to the king on the IT, will probably result in her death and the destruction of his house. The trouble is the Tyrell's kept betting on the wrong horses. Their first quiet attempt was an already married Robert Baratheon, whose wife was a Lannister; the second, if not first(monetarily) most powerful family in the kingdoms. Then when Robert dies and the incest scandal erupts they ally themselves to the Baratheon with the weakest claim, granted Renly looked like a sure bet since he had the numbers militarily but considering the Tyrell's then about-turn completely and ally themselves with the Lannister- Baratheon's, it makes them seem like a very inconsistant bunch. Certainly the Lannister's never completely trusted them afterwards.

 

They're a far more likable family than the Lannister's, and definitely more functional since they clearly love each other and will pull together as a group for their house. But that counts for nothing when they have Mace calling the shots, maybe it's unkind of me but they should change their banner from a rose to a lemming, all about to follow Mace off a cliff.

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Although they are likely to fall hard, the Tyrells are an example of what the Lannisters could be.  The Lannisters brutal infighting prevented them from working together.  Working together, they might have been unstoppable.

 

About Tywin, yeah, I would have LOVED to have seen his reaction to the Others.  He can backroom deal his way out of this one and sending a singer to play the Rains of Castamere ain't going to impress them.  Tywin on the battlefield works when he has an overwhelming army to command.  Not to mention he's a guy I think would have a hard time wrapping his mind around the idea of The Others.  The scene in the show where he reacts to learning the incest between his children actually happened (show only) was brilliant.  Charles Dance did a great job of showing Tywin as a man who refuses to see what is right in front of him, no matter what.  That's kind of how I see Tywin.

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They're a far more likable family than the Lannister's, and definitely more functional since they clearly love each other and will pull together as a group for their house. But that counts for nothing when they have Mace calling the shots, maybe it's unkind of me but they should change their banner from a rose to a lemming, all about to follow Mace off a cliff.

 

Here's the thing; if/when Mace dies, Willas and Garlan might still be able to hold the family's position in the Reach-but a lot of that depends on how far the Iron Born get.

 

 

About Tywin, yeah, I would have LOVED to have seen his reaction to the Others.  He can backroom deal his way out of this one and sending a singer to play the Rains of Castamere ain't going to impress them.  Tywin on the battlefield works when he has an overwhelming army to command.  Not to mention he's a guy I think would have a hard time wrapping his mind around the idea of The Others.  The scene in the show where he reacts to learning the incest between his children actually happened (show only) was brilliant.  Charles Dance did a great job of showing Tywin as a man who refuses to see what is right in front of him, no matter what.  That's kind of how I see Tywin.

 

I just loved the reveal as welll; it wasn't just great him finally realizing his legacy is built on a rotten foundation, (and thus was always doomed to fail one way or another,) but I think it removed the last shred of self-justification he had for himself.  The destruction of the Starks, the Red Wedding, the Rape of the Riverlands, and all-I think Tywin always morally reconciled himself to those actions with the theory that the Starks were traitors and the North had rebelled against the South and needed to be put down ruthlessly.  Can't tell himself that anymore-Cersei's revelation means that the Starks and all the others who rebelled against Joffrey were actually in the right about the whole damn thing.  Then there were the horrors Tywin committed far earlier like the sack of KL and murder of Elia and her babies-that was to make Cersei a Queen.  But it's now painfully obvious that Cersei never should have been Queen nor Joffrey King...so what did he do it all for?!?  He's helped tear the Realm to ruins, violate the oldest taboos of Westeros, and brought about deaths in the tens of thousands for nothing-for worse than nothing really, for Joff and Cersei.

 

I will be very, VERY interested to see the reactions of some of the surviving characters when they do confront the threat of the Others-whether they be Frey's, Tyrell's, Lannister's, or Varys this is going to be a new one for them.  In fact, I'm already curious what Varys hopes to do about the situation re Dany and her dragons-and what that means for his hopes for Aegon.  He has to realize that if Dany doesn't marry Aegon, (and well she might not, as Tyrion pointed out,) but rather decides to go for the IT herself, then they're all screwed.

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(edited)

I definitely think Willas could hold the family together but you're right, it depends on what damage the Ironborn do to The Reach.

 

The reactions of Littlefinger and Varys will be particularly interesting.  I can see LF being dismissive until the very end.  Once he sees proof, he's not going to know what to do.  Varys, well, he'll probably have to move very quickly into trying to convince Dany to come over to Westeros ASAP.  I think he would panic too and the realization of how much he (and LF) has destabilized the Realm at the worst possible time will come down on him.

Edited by benteen

 

The reactions of Littlefinger and Varys will be particularly interesting.  I can see LF being dismissive until the very end.  Once he sees proof, he's not going to know what to do.  Varys, well, he'll probably have to move very quickly into trying to convince Dany to come over to Westeros ASAP.  I think he would panic too and the realization of how much he (and LF) has destabilized the Realm at the worst possible time will come down on him.

 

Yeah, unlike LF, Varys I believe is capable of something like remorse.  I wouldn't be surprised if Baelish went nuts and tried to barricade himself in the Eyrie against the threat-unsuccessfully.  I definitely think there's been some build-up for an assault on the Eyrie at some point.  

 

I'm also DYING to see reactions once the news of Jon's ancestry gets out.  That might be another cause for chagrin on Varys's part, (turns out there was a real son of Aegon this whole time who Ned was protecting,) and Cersei and Baelish having complete meltdowns about it.  

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I can totally see LF freaking out and barricading himself in either the Eyrie or Harrenhaal. I lean towards Harrenhaal because of the curse plus, I can't see them travelling back to the Eyrie again now that Winter is here.

I think Varys made it clear that he's a believer in the supernatural because of the story he told Tyrion about hearing that voice when he was cut. I can't see him being as surprised, as scared, at a loss for words or anything like that. It's not so much that I see him as brave so much as I see him as someone who can quickly adapt and accept a situation. That's usually the case with LF but everything in me says that he's going to be a little weakling when shit starts to get real.

Re the voice Varys heard, I was happy that made it into the show because that is some seriously creepy shit and I'm half convinced that the blue flames mean it's something to do with the Great Other. The Lord of Light is just as likely, I guess but then I'm one of those who is skeptical as to what sort of god/which one Melisandre is serving and think there's a chance she's actually a servant of the Lord whose name she dare not speak. I feel like the voice Varys heard being connected in some way with the information Melisandre sees in the flames is plausible.

 

I can totally see LF freaking out and barricading himself in either the Eyrie or Harrenhaal. I lean towards Harrenhaal because of the curse plus, I can't see them travelling back to the Eyrie again now that Winter is here.

 

Good point that the Eyrie is now virtually inaccessible, (unless you have dragons and you're looking for a potential command center Ice Demons and Snow Zombies can't get to...hmmm...) so Harrenhaal makes more sense.  But if he does then man it could get ugly for him.

 

Personally, I suspect that if/when KL burns, Harrenhaal will be rebuilt and become the seat of a new Court.  

 

I'm also DYING to see reactions once the news of Jon's ancestry gets out.  That might be another cause for chagrin on Varys's part, (turns out there was a real son of Aegon this whole time who Ned was protecting,) and Cersei and Baelish having complete meltdowns about it.

 

I admit, the reaction I would have loved to have seen is Catelyn's.

 

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Catelyn's reaction would be the best but I'd also be pretty curious to get Thorne's reaction. Maester Aemon's would have been good too.

 

Yeah, Catelyn inadvertently wronged her husband all those years thinking him to have been unfaithful and that he was then sticking her with the sight of his bastard...and poor Aemon it would have meant so much to him to have known the truth about Jon.  Though, on the show he might just survive long enough to know the truth.  

 

If Stannis lives to find that out, there'll be fireworks...though, if my worst fears about Shireen being killed are realized, then I'd almost rather Stannis not make it back from Winterfell alive to know he survived his only child.  

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Yeah, all I'm seeing are the Starks being set up for badass greatness in one form or another while the Lannisters are steadily losing and losing. I feel like the Starks have already braved the worst and it's the other houses who still have to really watch out for more of the Bad Stuff to be headed their way. Furthermore, if I'm being really honest I don't even really fear for the lives of any of the Stark children because it seems so unlikely for the story to go there. It couldn't be more clear IMO that Jon is destined for greatness and hasn't come close to fulfilling his potential; most everyone wants Sansa to be Queen in one way or another and I agree she has an excellent chance at either being a consort of the seven kingdoms or QotN in her own right; Bran will live as long as Bloodraven and will finally fly (through Viserion with Tyrion IMO); Rickon is going to be some fierce, savage wildling; Arya is training to be this untouchable assassin and she's arguably the favorite Stark character so again, I'm not too worried about any of their fates especially not for TWoW.

Exactly, as much as other pure tortureporn is annoying to get through, Ned, Robb and Cat were not killed for any reasons of nihilism. I believe GRRM about that much, if nothing else. The younger Starks have had their own plot armor to see them this far, if the reasons dictating Ned's death applied to them Sansa would be the only one still alive because her value as a political piece outweighed any motives to murder her, and no one would doubt that Jon Snow's Caesering had some finality.

 

I also agree that House Tyrell is definitely in for a big fall. Margy's death is only a question of when to me, sorry to say, but I wouldn't consider Willas and Garlan as safe either. Mace feels the safest there if only because he's the least useful member of his family.

 

Yeah, Catelyn inadvertently wronged her husband all those years thinking him to have been unfaithful and that he was then sticking her with the sight of his bastard...and poor Aemon it would have meant so much to him to have known the truth about Jon.  Though, on the show he might just survive long enough to know the truth.

She wronged Jon either way, but it's kinda hard to wrong a husband who absolutely wants you to believe his lie about being unfaithful imo.

Reading that EW article now, it's funny that the last paragraph says TWoW's release date is "still as big a mystery as the identity of Jon Snow’s mother", considering that are at least good clues about Jon Snow's mother and most book readers don't really consider that a mystery.

Edited by Lady S.
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Ha!  But Mace may be in trouble if it comes to outright violence between the Tyrell forces and the Faith Militant.  

 

For what it's worth, I also have some grave concerns for poor Edmure what with Genna, Emmon, and Walder Frey all probably thinking it would be more convenient if he died.  LF too, since if Edmure, (and Roslin's child) should meet an unfortunate end than Sansa becomes the last known Tully heir-and is thus the key to the Riverlands as well as the North.

 

I will be very interested next season to see if anyone mentions Roslin being pregnant or not, to know whether that was a storyline of sufficient future importance for D&D to keep it.  

(edited)

And while you're at it, please bust out the Greatjon!  The sigil of House Umber is a giant breaking out of chains, that has to mean something.

 

Yeah, I wish Aemon had learned the truth about Jon.  I really liked the way their relationship developed and it would have meant a great deal to him.

Edited by benteen
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I'm still sad he couldn't hang on long enough to meet Dany although I understand why having that happen would have been too convenient. That said, I think it'd be nice if Jon told her about what a great man he was at some point.

Similarly, I really, really, really, really hope Jon and Jorah one day have a conversation about the Old Bear. I will be heartbroken if this doesn't happen.

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I'd like to see the conversation too.  It's pretty common for those conversations not to happen...I don't think Sam will be meeting up with Jorah anytime soon.  I kept waiting for Tyrion to bring up the Old Bear's fate (Tyrion knew he was presumed lost as I recall) with Jorah but I guess he didn't want to piss him off anymore than he already had.

The more I think about it, the more I'll be annoyed if Dany gets to sweep into Westeros with her dragons to take on the Others instead of getting her hands dirty and dealing with the complex, human factions that make up the ruling class of Westeros. She hasn't dealt with a fully realized antagonist since Mirri Maz Duur in the first book. None of her opponents in Essos have been much more than stock villains, and ice zombies aren't exactly complex villains with understandable motives. I know people are annoyed by the idea that Aegon will steal Dany's thunder by getting to Westeros first, but I would be shocked if Aegon isn't just cannon fodder that GRRM uses to clear the board of any threats, giving Dany the path of least resistance.

 

Threats and tough choices. Connington might be the one who kills Tommen so that Dany won't have to face the question of whether Tywin Lannister's sweet kitten-loving grandson deserves to be killed the way the slave-owners' sons were.

 

Show Hizdahr was a good change. That additional moral complexity in Dany's plot makes me even more annoyed that Tyrion, as the showrunners' absolute favorite, has to be squeaky clean, but at least they're trying to fix Meereen.

Here's the thing; if/when Mace dies, Willas and Garlan might still be able to hold the family's position in the Reach-but a lot of that depends on how far the Iron Born get.

 

I hope the TWOW prologue POV is a Tyrell who witnesses the invasion of Highgarden by the ironborn. The Martells are about to back the wrong horse and choose Aegon so Dorne is screwed, the same should happen to the Reach; it's just not a proper zombie apocalypse if there's a comfy, fertile southern region left untouched by war.

I'm also DYING to see reactions once the news of Jon's ancestry gets out.  That might be another cause for chagrin on Varys's part, (turns out there was a real son of Aegon this whole time who Ned was protecting,) and Cersei and Baelish having complete meltdowns about it.  

IMO, GRRM is most likely to reveal Jon's parentage to a small group of characters so that it's important to the readers but doesn't affect the fight for the throne (another spin on a fantasy trope: secret heir, no one knows/cares), but I would absolutely love the WTF reactions of the big players to the way that Ned managed to hide a bomb like that with no one having any idea.

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By our standards, today's standards. In their world, I'd think anyone would say she's done what she had to do to survive, and gaining even more survival skills as time moves on. The Hound reminded her that she's not invincible, so at least she's not delusional yet, and she was pissed off at the Hound's theft and brutal treatment of that farmer. I think anyone who is forced to live as a warrior develops a hard shell. It was much more difficult for me to accept Arya's life in the books because she was so little still. Notsomuch true with Maisie's portrayal.  

I don't see how it's that different. Her detatchment is atypical for their world. Yes, people duel and kill, and they go to war and grow hard shells, but even as young as she is, Arya is far more detatched than The Hound, Bronn, Brienne, or even Jaime. She's done what she had to to survive, but so does everyone else. I agree she's gained skills, but that doesn't change the fact that she's lost the ability to empathize with or care about other people. It's all about killing with her. That's really the only thing she enjoys or cares about.

 

Tywin mentioned that she reminded him of Cersei. I think that was forshadowing something, and I doubt it's a sign of anything good. Cersei is horrible.

 

Even though I'm very pessimistic about Arya's potential to do anything other than kill people, I find Maisie a delight to watch. She's very expressive and manages to make this cold-blooded little girl very sympathetic.

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(edited)

Well I don't know if we'll EVER get those conversations in the books about Jorah or Aemon, but I'd be pretty surprised if we didn't get them on the show.  They're just too good opportunities for D&D to pass up.  

 

 

I hope the TWOW prologue POV is a Tyrell who witnesses the invasion of Highgarden by the ironborn. The Martells are about to back the wrong horse and choose Aegon so Dorne is screwed, the same should happen to the Reach; it's just not a proper zombie apocalypse if there's a comfy, fertile southern region left untouched by war.

LOL!  Ain't that the truth.  The only place that might be legitimately unscathed will be the Vale since they had:

A. Mountains providing natural barriers, and

B. Stayed neutral during the WotFK.

 

 

IMO, GRRM is most likely to reveal Jon's parentage to a small group of characters so that it's important to the readers but doesn't affect the fight for the throne (another spin on a fantasy trope: secret heir, no one knows/cares), but I would absolutely love the WTF reactions of the big players to the way that Ned managed to hide a bomb like that with no one having any idea.

Quite possibly-thought I could also see word getting out somehow and even though Jon at that point might have no intention whatsoever of trying to claim the IT, everyone else would worry he did-and that causing a series of complications that would only perhaps drive Jon into getting more politically involved.  And again, I don't see D&D wanting to keep a bombshell like that hidden from everyone on the show when the reaction shots could be so entertaining.  Note the "Oh Shit" look we got when Roose learns that rumors of the Stark boys deaths had been greatly exaggerated and how they then let word get around quickly to Sam and Jon and so forth.  Or how they let Sansa come clean about her identity to at least some of the Vale's bigger players.  They also made a point that people in KL on the show did know about the dragons, (which they didn't believe in the books,) but make the fatal mistake of dismissing them as mere 'curiosities,' instead of grasping the true significance.

 

I just can't seem them missing out on the opportunity to have some fun at the expense of certain players to learn about such a potential game changing piece-that no one ever knew about except for the guy who was most oblivious to politics in KL.  (Quite some irony there!)  It's a revelation that literally re-defines everything-especially since it means Jon's a probable dragon rider.

Edited by Winnief

It really is one of the great ironies of ASOIAF that Mace's determination to see his daughter married to the king on the IT, will probably result in her death and the destruction of his house. The trouble is the Tyrell's kept betting on the wrong horses. Their first quiet attempt was an already married Robert Baratheon, whose wife was a Lannister; the second, if not first(monetarily) most powerful family in the kingdoms. Then when Robert dies and the incest scandal erupts they ally themselves to the Baratheon with the weakest claim, granted Renly looked like a sure bet since he had the numbers militarily but considering the Tyrell's then about-turn completely and ally themselves with the Lannister- Baratheon's, it makes them seem like a very inconsistant bunch. Certainly the Lannister's never completely trusted them afterwards.

 

They're a far more likable family than the Lannister's, and definitely more functional since they clearly love each other and will pull together as a group for their house. But that counts for nothing when they have Mace calling the shots, maybe it's unkind of me but they should change their banner from a rose to a lemming, all about to follow Mace off a cliff.

 

Their plot to displace Cersei with Margaery was something cooked up by Margaery/Loras/Renly wasn't it?   I didn't think that was a bad idea at the time,  The Tyrells could have compensated for the loss of the Lannister income, and once book!Margaery and Olenna hit the scene I have know doubt they would have been able to ferret out the truth about Jaimie/Cersei and they wouldn't have had Ned's reticense in exposing it.   The one caveate was I don't think the Tyrells understood how bloodthirsty Cersei could be.    Cersei thinks to herself that she warned Robert if Myra Stone was bought to Kings Landing, the girl would have have an "accident" and the capital can be a "dangerous" place.    I have know problem believeing she would have tried and succeeded in convincing Jaimie to arrange an accident for Margaery Tyrell, he would have doubtlessly had to go through Loras as well and in the books where given the impression he is very formidable.    Cersei probably would have murdered Robert still and the War would have been between The Lannisters and The Tyrells and than mix in Stannis/Melissandre faction and you've got a war torn Westeros just like what actually happened though, it would have taken some time before Houses Stark, Tully and Arryn got involved.

 

But I see the Tyrells possibly coming through this ok as a House, I seesaw on the fate of it's individual members.   But aren't they married into House Hightower?    Margaery's mother is Alerie Hightower, House Hightower is a Great House in all but name right?   I assume Olenna arranged the match some time ago between her son and a Hightower daughter to assist in the Tyrells remaining powerful.    Many have speculated that Willas is the Tyrell's "Rickon" someone in the story to continue the line when the dust settles from all that's happened.

 

As for the Others, isn't Littlefinger in the process of gathering Armed forces, granted not for that cause but he say's himself "in uncertain times, it pays to have many swords in your service."   I don't know that Littlefinger will survive the Others, but I don't think he will panic right away.   I think he will do what he always does in chaotic situations, he'll do his best to find a way to survive.   But than again I'm a fan of LF to an extent.   I could see him being a part of the War to Save Westeros as he's in the Vale acting as Guardian to the head of House Arryn, one of the few remaining Great Houses with an untouched army and ample food and supplies.   I could see Jon Snow (if he lives) having to deal with Baelish and Baelish negotiating his way into a position of influence, maybe cozying up to Dany when she comes to fight the Others.   Which should be interesting, if Tyrion Lannister somehow makes his way into Dany's circle.

 

Ok I think I like this theory,  Stannis (assuming he lives after the BoW) Jon allies with Baelish for Vale Supplies and Food,  he with Vale Troops, Wildings and the Nightwatch battles the Others, Danerys arrives with Dragons, and her posse (which may include Tyrion) and all unite to fight the Otherpocalypse.    I'm not sure how Sansa would fit at this point, maybe helping Baelish negotiate with Jon, but this would eventually have to envelope the other characters and I don't see how that could happen.

 

How far south do you all think the Others will get?  I can't imagine winter climate extending further than the Riverlands so can't all the folks in KL, Dorne, Highgarden, etc just wait it out?  What is the history regarding past winters in southern Westeros?

 

Well ADWD ends with snow falling on KL, so the White Walkers can get at least that far-also while generally, snow might now make it to Dorne or even the Reach, I have a nasty suspicion that if the Long Night repeats itself, the weather might be getting a lot colder than the usual patterns for EVERYONE and not just the North.  

(edited)

I think the Others might very well make it to Dorne. I'm curious if they'd be able to travel by sea. That chilling description of Hardhome and "dead things in the water" has me wondering.

Re multiple people being seated on the throne before the series is over--

I don't necessarily think that Tommen's death has to happen in KL for someone else to sit on the throne. He and Cersei might very well end up making the fatal mistake of turning him into a king on the run by fleeing to Casterly Rock. If that ends up happening I can see the next person on the throne being Euron, fAegon, or maybe Stannis I think I lean towards Euron since he's supposed to be such a threat to Dany, he's on the move, and he isn't distracted by anything that's going on in the North. FAegon is the next best guess I think but I honestly think he's going to die before he makes it to KL. Stannis is still a dark horse IMO.

After the person who comes after Tommen I'm guessing Dany and then finally/hopefully Jon.

Edited by Avaleigh

 

 

I don't necessarily think that Tommen's death has to happen in KL for someone else to sit on the throne. He and Cersei might very well end up making the fatal mistake of turning him into a king on the run by fleeing to Casterly Rock. If that ends up happening I can see the next person on the throne being Euron, fAegon, or maybe Stannis I think I lean towards Euron since he's supposed to be such a threat to Dany, he's on the move, and he isn't distracted by anything that's going on in the North. FAegon is the next best guess I think but I honestly think he's going to die before he makes it to KL. Stannis is still a dark horse IMO.

After the person who comes after Tommen I'm guessing Dany and then finally/hopefully Jon.

 

Good point.  We all know Tommen dies eventually (sob) but my guess is 

that Cersei will be the one who kills him or Myrcella in an attempt to 'protect' him, as they foreshadowed in Blackwater which is why Jaime (the Valonqar) kills her

 

I think fAegon and/or Euron will both occupy the seat for a short time-then Dany who dies before the series is concluded, (but only after giving birth to a living child,) before Jon Targaryen takes the throne-and one of his kids eventually marries Dany's.

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Their plot to displace Cersei with Margaery was something cooked up by Margaery/Loras/Renly wasn't it?   I didn't think that was a bad idea at the time,  The Tyrells could have compensated for the loss of the Lannister income, and once book!Margaery and Olenna hit the scene I have know doubt they would have been able to ferret out the truth about Jaimie/Cersei and they wouldn't have had Ned's reticense in exposing it.   The one caveate was I don't think the Tyrells understood how bloodthirsty Cersei could be.

 

Book!Margaery and Olenna could certainly scheme Cersei off her throne, and as you say Cersei's reaction would've really shaken them but I think their biggest problem would've been Tywin. This is a man who completely overreacted to his least loved son's capture and trial, and invaded and burned the riverlands when in Westerosi society he should've gone to KL and demanded Tyrion be returned and the Starks and Arryn's punished. Since he couldn't handle Tyrion, his family embarrassment being treated like that, there's no way he'd stand for Cersei, being but aside for a rival family to move past the Lannisters on the social ladder and shame his house so completely. So I still think it was a bad plan, in fact putting what we know of Joffrey's character aside I don't know why they didn't try and arrange a match between Marg and Joff as their first attempt on the IT, it would've taken longer to reap any reward but the end result would still be a half Tyrell child on the IT, in fact once Joff's true nature was revealed and they had a child or two they could still have killed him off as they did in the book.

 

 

How far south do you all think the Others will get?  I can't imagine winter climate extending further than the Riverlands so can't all the folks in KL, Dorne, Highgarden, etc just wait it out?  What is the history regarding past winters in southern Westeros?

 

I think I can remember some mention that the Others either come with cold weather or they bring it with them, so my guess is as far as they want to go. Which is kind of borne out in the season 2 finale when Sam, gets stuck in that snow storm which brings all the Others and Wights.

 

I'm also DYING to see reactions once the news of Jon's ancestry gets out. 

 

I've just started reading the very first book after finally caving in to the 'phenomenon' of GoT, also known as curiosity but I have spoiled myself silly with the plotlines etc. But the one thing that has me wondering is: Exactly how Jon's heritage will come out and for people to believe it. The other guy (sorry forgotten his name) that possibly knows the secret that Ned kept, how would he be forced to blurt it out and how would he prove it? Is there somebody else that could confirm the heritage, or would Jon have to do something for people to say Yep he is the heir!

Is there somebody else that could confirm the heritage, or would Jon have to do something for people to say Yep he is the heir!

Riding a dragon might come in handy for proving his blood to Dany, and if she accepts him as Rhaegar's son/a possible match for herself, that should be pretty good for her followers. I don't think the details of Rhaegar/Lyanna's story will really be important for anyone but Jon himself. But I really don't want a Jon/Dany happily ever after and I don't want Jon, or any character I like to end up sitting the Iron Throne. I'd rather that monstrosity was destroyed and Westeros went back to separate kingdoms.

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Riding a dragon might come in handy for proving his blood to Dany, and if she accepts him as Rhaegar's son/a possible match for herself, that should be pretty good for her followers. I don't think the details of Rhaegar/Lyanna's story will really be important for anyone but Jon himself. But I really don't want a Jon/Dany happily ever after and I don't want Jon, or any character I like to end up sitting the Iron Throne. I'd rather that monstrosity was destroyed and Westeros went back to separate kingdoms.

There is small chance of a happy ending in any GRRM story. There's almost zero chance of both Jon AND Dany living to the end--it's going to be an either/or proposition while we tear out our hair knowing how easy it would be for them to just stop it and get married instead. Instead of that, hundreds of thousands of people will die, and probably everyone except EITHER Jon and Arya, or Dany & Arya, will be dead by the end. Tyrion might survive but I bet not all the way to the end--my money's on him getting a big splashy death, probably redemptive in some way.

I think Dany's definitely a goner, sorry to say, but Jon could get a big heroic death as well. I just don't think the story's heading to any grand Targ restoration, but Jon's more likely to survive if just because out of all the characters, the tropes have been played the straightest so far on his hero's journey. And because I don't think the Iron Throne would be a happy ending for him, then if that thing is still around he'd more likely the contenders who really wanted just for the sake of that bittersweet quality. IA about Tyrion getting a redemptive death at the very end, but I think there's a good chance all 3 will die for the greater good with the other characters left to rebuild Westeros.

 

GRRM's made comparisons to LotR when talking about his own bittersweet ending, so that's what I think of in terms of what to expect. Granted, I haven't re-read those books since the movies came out since they were harder to get through than AFfC/ADwD, that and my copies belonged to my dad and are 40+ years old and falling apart, but I recall some happy endings after the scouring of the Shire. Merry and Pippin were heroes, Sam married Rosie, and Frodo sailed into the sunset to find peace. So I think it's an exaggeration to assume most of the named characters will die and all the death and destruction will be utterly futile with no possibility of a good future for Westeros.

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Book!Margaery and Olenna could certainly scheme Cersei off her throne, and as you say Cersei's reaction would've really shaken them but I think their biggest problem would've been Tywin. This is a man who completely overreacted to his least loved son's capture and trial, and invaded and burned the riverlands when in Westerosi society he should've gone to KL and demanded Tyrion be returned and the Starks and Arryn's punished. Since he couldn't handle Tyrion, his family embarrassment being treated like that, there's no way he'd stand for Cersei, being but aside for a rival family to move past the Lannisters on the social ladder and shame his house so completely. So I still think it was a bad plan, in fact putting what we know of Joffrey's character aside I don't know why they didn't try and arrange a match between Marg and Joff as their first attempt on the IT, it would've taken longer to reap any reward but the end result would still be a half Tyrell child on the IT, in fact once Joff's true nature was revealed and they had a child or two they could still have killed him off as they did in the book.

 

You know this really makes me want a POV for Olenna Tyrell.   She's so different from all the other characters we've met and had insight on, her outlook on the current political landscape would be very interesting to me.    I know Olenna is credited with saying "We should have stayed well out of all this" but for some reason I don't buy it.   I don't think Loras was sent to Kings Landing to honey trap Renly on happenstance and I don't think Margaery is so driven "It's THE Queen or Bust" by nature alone, I think Olenna definitely fosters the ambition in her House, it's just that her Grand Children are much more useful than Mace.

 

And it also interest me that after everything they've heard,  Cersei/Jaimie's decades long affair and succession shell game, Tywin's scorched earth destruction of House Reyne, Robert's "accident", Ned Stark's beheadding and the mass infancide ordered by the Lannister regime, House Tyrell still isn't afraid to mix it up with House Lannister.     You get the distince impression in the books that Olenna, Margaery and Loras are rather confident and determined to muscle out the Lannisters as it were.

 

Tywin never trusted them, nor did Cersei, the Hand of the King and the Queen Regent, yet the Tyrell's got Margaery to be Queen, have their bannerman and family as prominent members of Court and the Kings Council.    They benefit TREMENDOUSLY from the horrors the Lannisters do but the Lannisters take the blame in terms of reputation and revulsion from the Realm.    The endorsement of the people is a boon House Tyrell brings with it to any negotiating table (which is the only reason I could see Aegon giving Margaery a second look, if they live long enough to meet each other)

 

I think if things hadn't gotten so out of control in Lannister v. Tyrell, the Tyrells would have won.   They murdered Joffrey, allowed Tyrion to take the fall, leading to his conviction and breaking of sanity, which led to the death of Tywin.    The Tyrells did more damage to House Lannister than the Starks ever could.

 

I think Dany's definitely a goner, sorry to say, but Jon could get a big heroic death as well. I just don't think the story's heading to any grand Targ restoration, but Jon's more likely to survive if just because out of all the characters, the tropes have been played the straightest so far on his hero's journey. And because I don't think the Iron Throne would be a happy ending for him, then if that thing is still around he'd more likely the contenders who really wanted just for the sake of that bittersweet quality. IA about Tyrion getting a redemptive death at the very end, but I think there's a good chance all 3 will die for the greater good with the other characters left to rebuild Westeros.

 

Would GRRM really kill off all those fan favorites?   Though I think Jon will play a role in the fate of the Iron Throne, one of the show runners said Jon's has know stake in the Iron Throne "Yet", I can't for the life of me remember which interview this was in but  it was relatively recent.

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(edited)

Well, compare GRRM with Tolkien for a minute. They're kind of different. Look at what's happened so far.

 

Who are Merry and Pippin in this story? I'll buy Sam & Gilly for Sam & Rosie, and Frodo corresponding with Jon Snow. But who would you say corresponds to Galadriel? Melisandre?  Or who is Aragorn? Stannis? Jon? Dany? Or Arwen? Who is Gandalf and who is Sauron? There's not really a good/evil paradigm here, and so the ending can't be about good triumphing over evil. Jon Snow will not be getting on a boat to West of the Fields, leaving behind him a new, vigorous king, beautiful former elf queen, and green, peaceful land. That's just not how GRRM writes.

 

It would be just like him to randomly and meaninglessly kill everyone, and for the final chapter to be, as he's joked, just snow blowing over a bunch of graves.

Edited by Hecate7
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And it also interest me that after everything they've heard,  Cersei/Jaimie's decades long affair and succession shell game, Tywin's scorched earth destruction of House Reyne, Robert's "accident", Ned Stark's beheadding and the mass infancide ordered by the Lannister regime, House Tyrell still isn't afraid to mix it up with House Lannister.

 

True-though, they might well be regretting that now.

 

 

There is small chance of a happy ending in any GRRM story. There's almost zero chance of both Jon AND Dany living to the end--it's going to be an either/or proposition while we tear out our hair knowing how easy it would be for them to just stop it and get married instead. Instead of that, hundreds of thousands of people will die, and probably everyone except EITHER Jon and Arya, or Dany & Arya, will be dead by the end.

 

I actually think Jon and Dany WILL be allies rather than opposing each other on the battlefield-but I hope they don't marry or become romantically involved since Targ incest hasn't done anyone any favors in the past.  And I actually think Arya will die by the end of the series but Sansa will make it, since Martin is grooming Sansa to be someone to help rebuild the Seven Kingdoms while Arya, (bless her blackened little heart,) is only fit to destroy.

(edited)

Advance35, you explained perfectly why I can't wait for House Tyrell to start taking some major hits already. They are so arrogant, hypocritical, and duplicitous I can hardly stand it.

They benefitTREMENDOUSLY from the horrors Lannisters do but the Lannisters take the blame in terms of reputation and revulsion from the Realm.

This. This is my problem with the Tyrells in a nutshell. They willingly got into the bloody mud with the Lannisters and they still want to be all immaculate and good even though they are in it up to their necks already. Fuck that. If the Lannisters are going down, and they most certainly are, I think it's only right that their closest allies are brought down with them. It's not like the Tyrells didn't have a choice in all of this. Greed and a lust for power put them in this position and Margaery is probably going to lose her head for it.

I was basically done with the Tyrells after what they did to Sansa but there are other times I've found their behavior to be frustrating, most recently in the whole matter of Cersei's Walk and not having the sense to intervene and force the HS to release Cersei so that she could be held in custody prior to the trial. That Mace and Kevan are incapable of seeing how stupid it is to leave the mother of the king hanging out to dry when their whole claim is going to be cooked if she's found guilty makes no sense to me.

Mace is even considering telling the HS to fuck off altogether when it comes to Margaery and while I don't think this would be a smart move, it also shows me that he doesn't really fear/respect the HS (as he probably should) which means that his decision to not save Cersei from the Walk was more about a personal grievance with her since she's given him no reason to like her and actively tried to deny him what he'd been promised from Tywin.

Stannis made sure that the legitimacy of the royal Baratheons would always be looked at in suspicion, but the Walk has absolutely burned it into everyone's brain that it's more likely the truth than not or else why would the gods suffer to make her go through the ordeal? (I assume this would be the thought of the average lowborn person.) I feel like the Tyrells stepped into this alliance with House Lannister knowing almost exactly what they'd be working with the good and the bad but now rather than working together to save this thing, it's starting to feel like it could be everyman for himself. If Margaery is executed I can see that causing some problems between Mace and his bannermen. Olenna's wrath too would be interesting to see upon the execution of her favorite granddaughter. She'd be feeling especially vengeful if Cersei ends up surviving hers against the odds.

Edited by Avaleigh
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I was basically done with the Tyrells after what they did to Sansa but there are other times I've found their behavior to be frustrating, most recently in the whole matter of Cersei's Walk and not having the sense to intervene and force the HS to release Cersei so that she could be held in custody prior to the trial. That Mace and Kevan are incapable of seeing how stupid it is to leave the mother of the king hanging out to dry when their whole claim is going to be cooked if she's found guilty makes no sense to me.

 

On one hand I can't blame them for not helping with Cersei.   Granted Cersei's innocence would only strengthen Tommen's claim to the Iron Throne and by extension Margaery's Queenship but the whole mess showed  that Cersei wasn't willing to play ball.   She was willing to murder Margaery for her personal grudge and think that House Tyrell would still accept being bound to House Lannister or would still support Tommen.    I don't think Kevan had the troops to hold Kings Landing against the Faith and match off with the Tyrells, since House Lannister had a "spent force" in terms of armies.    I think the Tyrells allowed the walk as retribution for what Cersei did to Margaery and they knew that it would forever ruin Cersei's chances of being seen by the masses as a Queen (they are know longer awed by her).   

 

Even the Martells were talking in ADWD about how everyone is saying the 2 Queens fight over the boy king.   And LF was telling Sansa that Westeros will enter a new era of chaos during the "War of the 3 Queens" (Cersei, Margaery and Dany, IMO).    I think the High Septon came up with the walk but the Tyrells are more than happy to watch Cersei burn in their championed arena of public opinion.

 

Kevan allowed it I imagine as payback for what her perseives as Cersei doing to his son Lancel, to appease the Tyrells (I got the impression he had to spend some time convincing Mace Tyrell that Cersei would have absolutely NO power moving forward  AND Kevan Lannister had to aquiese in terms of additional positions at Court for Tyrell loyalist.

 

I don't mind the Tyrells because the Tyrells are doing to House Lannister, what House Lannister did to House Stark, their just MUCH more cloak and dagger about it.

 

If Margaery is executed I can see that causing some problems between Mace and his bannermen. Olenna's wrath too would be interesting to see upon the execution of her favorite granddaughter. She'd be feeling especially vengeful if Cersei ends up surviving hers against the odds.

 

If Margaery were being kept in the Great Sept than I could see her being killed BUT she's in the custody of Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly.    I don't see them handing over for an execution.    The only way I could see Margaery being killed is if Robert Strong is sent after her, which is something I've also heard tossed around as a theory,  Margaery comes through the trial and an unhinged Cersei sends Robert Strong to murder Mace and Margaery, effectively ending the alliance between Houses Lannister and Tyrell.

 

Which would make the time ripe for Aegon Targaryen to arrive and take over.

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I actually think Jon and Dany WILL be allies rather than opposing each other on the battlefield-but I hope they don't marry or become romantically involved since Targ incest hasn't done anyone any favors in the past.  And I actually think Arya will die by the end of the series but Sansa will make it, since Martin is grooming Sansa to be someone to help rebuild the Seven Kingdoms while Arya, (bless her blackened little heart,) is only fit to destroy.

 

Part of me thinks Jon and Dany will never even meet. 

 

I have to admit some mean part of me who sees all the Jon/Dany shipping would be interested in how people would react if the Jon/Dany relationship did come to pass...but with the two of them as half-siblings. I think the reaction would veer somewhere between horror and, "Well they aren't Cersei/Jaime, so that's not bad."

 

I don't think the show's really done that much to reinforce just how out of control the Targaryen dynasty was at the end. 

How could they be half siblings though?

I don't have a problem with Jon and Dany ending up together. I doubt it'll be long term but I'm convinced that the show vision Dany had in the HotU was all about saying that her heart's desire is currently on the Wall. At the time when I first saw the scene I was shocked because it seemed like they were trying to make it blatantly obvious that they'd be the end game, even Unsullied were wondering, but the idea is so frowned upon in certain parts of the fandom that it seems like there are still more who firmly believe that it either won't happen or will be one of the cheesiest things GRRM could do in terms of relationship pairings.

Re: Margaery no longer being in the Great Sept--she has to be taken back before the trial. Tarly swore that he'd return her.

My thought is that they're still going to take it for granted that she'll be found innocent and won't expect an execution to take place immediately after the trial.

Since Cersei's trial seems like it's going to happen first and RS will probably win, I feel like they might even have more confidence in the idea that Margaery will easily be able to walk away. Furthermore, the HS strikes me as someone who will be extremely disgruntled at the idea of Cersei winning a TBC. He's so devout that part of me thinks that he'd actually believe in Cersei's innocence if she were to win the trial or else he'd essentially have to admit to himself that the outcome of a TBC likely have nothing to do with the will of so called just gods. He might end up being even more determined to uncover some non existent sin of Margaery's just because he wants to exercise the new powers of the Faith and show that anyone can be touched.

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I have to admit some mean part of me who sees all the Jon/Dany shipping would be interested in how people would react if the Jon/Dany relationship did come to pass...but with the two of them as half-siblings. I think the reaction would veer somewhere between horror and, "Well they aren't Cersei/Jaime, so that's not bad."

 

They're not half-siblings but Dany *is* Jon's Aunt which is still pretty gross.  Now I'm not exactly rooting for Sansa/Jon and I can see how them being raised as siblings for years freaks people out, but biologically they're only first cousins-which in feudal medieval states was pretty normal.  After all Jon's mother and Sansa's father may have been siblings but neither Jon's father or Sansa's mother had any relation to them or to each other so medically it would be in the clear. Truth be told I'd prefer someone else entirely-perhaps sweet little Shireen if she should survive to adulthood as a way of finally joining the Stark/Baratheon bloodlines AND reconciling the Targaryen/Baratheon differences AND giving some vindication for Stannis to at least have his daughter be Queen and his grandchildren in line for the throne.   

 

Still, I could see why Dany/Jon might happen though again, I don't think it's a good idea to keep the Targaryen bloodline quite that concentrated.  I mean Dany's parents, (and Jon's grand-parents) were siblings.  But for dynastic purposes I could see why it might happen.  

 

 

 

My thought is that they're still going to take it for granted that she'll be found innocent and won't expect an execution to take place immediately after the trial.

Since Cersei's trial seems like it's going to happen first and RS will probably win, I feel like they might even have more confidence in the idea that Margaery will easily be able to walk away. Furthermore, the HS strikes me as someone who will be extremely disgruntled at the idea of Cersei winning a TBC. He's so devout that part of me thinks that he'd actually believe in Cersei's innocence if she were to win the trial or else he'd essentially have to admit to himself that the outcome of a TBC likely have nothing to do with the will of so called just gods. He might end up being even more determined to uncover some non existent sin of Margaery's just because he wants to exercise the new powers of the Faith and show that anyone can be touched.

 

All of that sounds entirely too plausible-Margaery attends the trial in person, on the expectation she'll be exonerated since the case is so weak, and to the shock of everyone (except Varys) she is actually convicted-and possibly the sentence is passed right away.  Surest way to get the worst possible results for KL-which is why Varys and Martin would want to make it happen.

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I'm firmly in the camp of not wanting Jon/Dany to happen, if the Targ bloodline is to continue it needs the crazy bred out of it. Besides, everyone in Westeros (except Jaime and Cersei) considers incest repugnant, just look at the NW's reaction to Craster. The only reason the Targs were allowed to practice it and their polygamy was because Aegon and his sisters set the precedent and backed it up with their dragons, I can only guess that once the last dragon died it was considered a peculiar Targaryen tradition by then, and besides who wants to argue with a king?

 

I know Dany wouldn't be fazed by the idea of marrying her nephew, after all she expected to marry her brother when she grew up. But I think it would repulse Jon, since as Winnief pointed out they're not even cousins which would at least be a somewhat more regular occurrence Westeros. So if Jon's reaction to Dany if/when they meet is " She's my Aunt? She's hot! We should totally get married!", I'll be disappointed to say the least.

If Jon/Dany does happen I'd be willing to bet that he doesn't find out she's his aunt until sometime after their relationship has been consummated. Not a long time as I don't think they'll spend much time together, but long enough for him or both of them to interact without thinking that they're relatives.

I don't think Dany would think it was a big deal.

 

I know Dany wouldn't be fazed by the idea of marrying her nephew, after all she expected to marry her brother when she grew up. But I think it would repulse Jon, since as Winnief pointed out they're not even cousins which would at least be a somewhat more regular occurrence Westeros. So if Jon's reaction to Dany if/when they meet is " She's my Aunt? She's hot! We should totally get married!", I'll be disappointed to say the least.

 

Yeah, it just doesn't seem in character for Jon-he might be a Targ by blood, but he was raised to have the value systems of the Stark's.  And while it might be hypothetically possible if Jon didn't know Dany *was* his Aunt, I really don't think it's likely that Jon will still be in the dark about his parentage by the time he and Dany meet.  I gotta say that bombshell is going to have a huge impact on the Unsullied-and automatically change any thoughts they might have had about the ship.  

Of course it's always possible Martin's always *planned* on Dany/Jon and one reason he's having trouble finishing the series is because he now realizes it will not only gross out readers but be wildly inconsistent with Jon's portrayal so far.  

 

Anyhow moving back to TWOW, I'm betting that the Westerosi delegation to the IB will be bringing Arya Stark back with them on their return journey.

Sorry - I always forget she's Rhaegar's sister, not his daughter. I was going to correct that but I couldn't get on the forums. 


I'm firmly in the camp of not wanting Jon/Dany to happen, if the Targ bloodline is to continue it needs the crazy bred out of it. Besides, everyone in Westeros (except Jaime and Cersei) considers incest repugnant, just look at the NW's reaction to Craster. The only reason the Targs were allowed to practice it and their polygamy was because Aegon and his sisters set the precedent and backed it up with their dragons, I can only guess that once the last dragon died it was considered a peculiar Targaryen tradition by then, and besides who wants to argue with a king?

 

I know Dany wouldn't be fazed by the idea of marrying her nephew, after all she expected to marry her brother when she grew up. But I think it would repulse Jon, since as Winnief pointed out they're not even cousins which would at least be a somewhat more regular occurrence Westeros. So if Jon's reaction to Dany if/when they meet is " She's my Aunt? She's hot! We should totally get married!", I'll be disappointed to say the least.

 

The only way I think Jon would do is if it was for the good of the realm, and then later he might develop feelings for her. 

 

I don't really think GRRM would do that, although sometimes I do wonder if Jaime/Cersei was set up to be the toxic, self-destructive incestuous relationship to contrast with one that would not be as bad.

 

Then again I think most of the supposedly healthier incestuous Targ relationships came some time ago, as Aerys/Rhaella was a horrible horrible relationship. 

 

Then again I think most of the supposedly healthier incestuous Targ relationships came some time ago, as Aerys/Rhaella was a horrible horrible relationship.

 

And let's not get started on the Bloodraven/Shiera/Bittersteel triangle...

 

But it's worth remembering that the disastrous Aerys/Rhaella union came about because it was prophesied that the Prince that was Promised would come from that bloodline so something like that could happen again.

 

But of course TPTWP, is also half non-Targaryen as well,  and probably the better for that fresh blood.  Frankly, looking at the family record for lunacy, I'm gonna have to against anymore close inter-breeding there thank you very much.  

(edited)

I know Dany wouldn't be fazed by the idea of marrying her nephew, after all she expected to marry her brother when she grew up. But I think it would repulse Jon, since as Winnief pointed out they're not even cousins which would at least be a somewhat more regular occurrence Westeros. So if Jon's reaction to Dany if/when they meet is " She's my Aunt? She's hot! We should totally get married!", I'll be disappointed to say the least.

Actually, on the contrary, the Stark family tree that was released from TWOIAF in prototype form features a (half-)uncle/niece marriage.  Edric Stark, one of the sons of Lord Cregan Stark (by his cousin Lynara Stark, incidentally), married Serena Stark, the daughter of Edric's half-brother Rickon Stark.

 

Marriages of that sort were not actually unheard of in the Middle Ages.  The Spanish Habsburgs made a regular practice of it (to their genetic detriment, in the long-term).

Edited by SeanC

If incest in ASOIAF worked like it did in the real world, the Targaryens would have bred themselves into Charles II of Spain territory a long time ago.

 

The Targaryen line as represented by Dany is the least inbred it has been in a long time (possibly ever, for all we know).  Her parents were siblings, but before that Jaehaerys II, Aegon V, Maekar I, and Daeron II are all either confirmed or presumed to have married outside the family (Maekar is the most ambiguous, but there appears to have been only one daughter of Daeron II, and she married Aerys I).  At that point they seem to alternate between incestuous and non-incestuous unions every generation or so, back to Aegon I's parents.

 

At that point they seem to alternate between incestuous and non-incestuous unions every generation or so, back to Aegon I's parents.

 

Hmmm...so by that standard, Dany shouldn't marry Jon since her parents were siblings, but presuming Dany (or Jon) had children by a non-Targaryen their kids could marry each other.  Or Dany/Jon might have one child, but that kid would have to be damn careful to marry outside the Targaryen line...assuming the kid wasn't in Charles II of Spain territory...

Hmmm...so by that standard, Dany shouldn't marry Jon since her parents were siblings, but presuming Dany (or Jon) had children by a non-Targaryen their kids could marry each other.

It's not a formal rule or anything.  One imagines it was largely circumstantial.

 

I have no idea whether Dany and Jon are going to be a pairing or not, but I'm quite sure that issues relating to incest won't enter into it one way or another, based on how Targaryen pairings have been treated in the series, and the TWOIAF info.

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(edited)

Apart from devout followers of the Faith I doubt that many people really cared about the Targaryen incestuous marriages. Cousin marriage seems to be all over the place too at least I can think of examples from the Targaryens, Lannisters, Arryns, and Starks.

As far as skipping the incest every generation or so I never really got the impression that any of the non-Targ marriages happened for the specific reason of introducing some new blood into the mix. They're convinced that their super special blood is all that and then some it's hard for me to imagine a conversation where they're admitting that it would be better long term for their House if they widen the gene pool.

I also feel like in this world incest doesn't appear to have the same biological drawbacks that it has in our world. Sure, the Targaryens have madness and there was that one dude who was like a conjoined twin or something and still had the head attached to his body somehow? Something crazy, I can't recall, I'm wondering if this is something mentioned in a Dunk and Egg novella (I haven't read those yet) and I just came upon it via one of the wiki pages.

Apart from that though the Targaryens are generally healthy and good looking. Even the Lannister incest produced three physically healthy, attractive kids. The group over at Craster's are also seemingly healthy, they're just abused, beaten down women in a monstous situation but I don't recall reading about a bunch of them having physical deficiencies because of being so inbred I do though recall either Jon or Sam thinking that all of the women basically looked like Craster which was a little disconcerting.

Edited by Avaleigh
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