Winner Edit vs. Loser Edit: Discuss Amongst Yourselves

[LadyChatts]

On 2/23/2020 at 10:23 AM, Eolivet said:

Wow, Adam has more than Rob?! That's interesting, because I thought the torch mishap was Adam's editing death knell last episode. It made him look ridiculous and there was no reason to show it otherwise (and it apparently happened more than once, according to media reports).

I don't know who's winning, but making a contestant look ridiculous through editing is not a good sign (see also: Ben).

See also: the caveat that I am absolutely horrible at calling a winner based on editing and continue to do it anyway, because it's fun and it gets me out of the house.

After tonight I'm convinced Ben isn't winning.  The fact that they showed the guy lassoing himself, along with the rest of his edit, doesn't seem like a good look for a winner.  Adam I'm on the fence with.  Right now I'm leaning towards no, but I could see some sort of redemption edit down the road.  I'm at a loss who I think will win right now.  

[Eolivet]

Bringing this from the episode thread:

Came to the sobering realization tonight that Adam is being used as the "narrator" of the season seemingly having more talking heads than anyone else is shorthand for him being the eventual winner.

I haven't been keeping track of confessionals, but it makes sense Adam has more than anyone: his tribe has lost most frequently and he is seemingly the narrator. But I maintain you don't show your winner not knowing where to put their torch at tribal council. Not for 2 million dollars. His edit is far too wacky to be one of a winner, to me.

I don't know who's winning, but I'm pretty sure he's not. Keep in mind I was also sure Wendell wasn't winning his season the episode before the finale, and Nick had no prayer on his season. But I'm going to stand here in my wrongness and be wrong (or not).

[LadyChatts]

Adam, Ben, Michele, and Wendell probably have the worst edits of anyone so far.  While I had ruled Ben out, tonight his comment about not being a rookie player and changing his game play made me wonder if he could still pull it off.  Michele I think is a wild card, but so far I don't think her edit has been all that great.  And I really don't get why Wendell is coming off so bad.  But it's obvious there's tension between him and Michele.  They should have just left the tribes alone, and let Sele Ulong itself.

I don't know if anyone is striking me as having a winner's edit yet.  I feel like most of Old Dakal I haven't really seen their game play yet.  They voted out two easy targets, Sarah and Sophie are in a good spot on their new tribe (and voting out Rob wasn't rocket science), Nick/Wendell/Yul have a majority at NuSele, and Tony is Tony.  

[OutOfTheQuestion]

The usual "winner edit" rules don't always apply to seasons of all returning players, however.  There were lots of episodes in All-Stars, Heroes v. Villains, Second Chances, and Game Changers were Amber, Sandra, Jeremy, and Sarah all played minor parts in the narrative or disappeared altogether for multiple episodes.  It's even more skewed this season since time has to be spent on the Edge of Extinction people.

[Hera]

Bringing this over from the episode thread.

51 minutes ago, skybolt said:

Based on the show edits thus far, which of the remaining survivors (I'll leave EoE players off the list at this point) have the best chance of winning the game. This is purely based on edits and not so much on actual game play. Here's my opinion:

Very small chance to win: Tony (has mostly had comedic relief footage), Wendell (the antagonist edit), Ben (shown more for his sidekick antics than his actual game play).

Small chance to win: Kim (edits are slightly better now, but still very under the radar), Adam (On one hand he's getting a lot of air time, but on the other hand, the edits make him look out of touch and a goofball).

Decent chance to win: Nick (still under the radar, but his confessionals have been better lately), Michelle (her edit shows that she'll likely make it far, but too much drama being shown for the ultimate winner).

Good chance to win: Denise (obvious reasons), Jeremy (confessionals have been consistent and good), Sophie & Sarah (both have been solid from beginning)

What does everyone else think?

I'm pretty confident neither Adam nor Wendell is winning this season based on their edits. It's also really weird to see Parvati as a supporting character this season. She was Rob's and then Michele's sidekick in the game and now on Edge of Extinction she was giving Ethan an emotional boost so he didn't talk himself into leaving. But she's not really driving anything, which is unusual for a season with her in it.

I actually haven't noticed Jeremy or Nick's confessionals, but I admit I'm not really keeping track. It's clear that the Wendell/Michele drama will be the main story heading into the merge and that the eventual winner (whose edit might not go into full swing until then) will have to maneuver around them, or if it's Michele, the story will be about her getting Wendell booted from the game.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Hera
Hit submit too soon.

[peachmangosteen]

1 minute ago, Hera said:

I'm pretty confident neither Adam nor Wendell is winning this season based on their edits. 

I agree. I also think Danni has no chance since she is basically invisible. I think any of the rest of them could possibly win for now.

[Guest]

 

53 minutes ago, Hera said:

1 hour ago, skybolt said:

Based on the show edits thus far, which of the remaining survivors (I'll leave EoE players off the list at this point) have the best chance of winning the game. This is purely based on edits and not so much on actual game play. Here's my opinion:

Very small chance to win: Tony (has mostly had comedic relief footage), Wendell (the antagonist edit), Ben (shown more for his sidekick antics than his actual game play).

Small chance to win: Kim (edits are slightly better now, but still very under the radar), Adam (On one hand he's getting a lot of air time, but on the other hand, the edits make him look out of touch and a goofball).

Decent chance to win: Nick (still under the radar, but his confessionals have been better lately), Michelle (her edit shows that she'll likely make it far, but too much drama being shown for the ultimate winner).

Good chance to win: Denise (obvious reasons), Jeremy (confessionals have been consistent and good), Sophie & Sarah (both have been solid from beginning)

What does everyone else think?

I'll cosign this, mostly because if you swap out Nick for Sarah in your "Good chance to win" category, that would be a great final four for me (any returns from EoE notwithstanding, of course).

I think Wendell might have a better chance than you give him, because they've certainly had winners who aren't all sunshine and bunnies. But overall I'd say it's a solid list!

(Sorry for the quoting shenanigans at the top)

[Nashville]

On 3/19/2020 at 1:47 AM, Eolivet said:

I haven't been keeping track of confessionals, but it makes sense Adam has more than anyone: his tribe has lost most frequently and he is seemingly the narrator.

And my guess would be, Adam talks a metric shit-ton more than everybody else on the tribe. So TPTB simply have more footage of Adam to use for THs.

[LadyChatts]

The contestants this season seemed down on EOE, which makes me think if they'd vote for a winner from there, regardless of who it is.  Chris, who won S38, seemed to have a really quiet edit while on Edge, so I wouldn't rule out people who aren't getting a lot of screen time.  It also seems logical they'd focus on Rob, Tyson, Parvati, Amber, and Ethan over Danni.  Natalie got some good screen time at first, but now even she's faded into the background.

Of those still left in the game, based on edit, I'd say Adam has the worst chances of winning.  I suppose it's possible his edit could improve, so I guess we'll see.  And also Wendell, because his edit has just been negative.  I don't see how he bounces back from that.  I also don't know if Ben's chances are that great, though I'm upgrading him from 'no chance' to 'very slim chance.'  His comment this week about wanting to change his game play from last time may mean something.  

Everyone else I'm up in the air.  Once the merge happens I think it'll be more telling.  People on other sites think Michele's chances are great based on comments she's made in TH (about proving she deserved to win last time, and this time), and the conversation with Rob saying that she shouldn't care what people think.  I think that's stretching, but I think she maybe has a better chance than most. 

[Hera]

One thing I will say for Michele's edit it seems like she's getting credit for being The Decider in some votes. Really, I think she and Nick decided jointly to keep Wendell (and that—for whatever reason—she was primed to save him anyway). Furthermore, it seemed like she and Jeremy were the ones who chose Ethan as the target of the vote where Adam tried to get Parvati out. My guess is that her edit is partly about trying to show how she won the first time (redemption for the editors more than for Michele), and also because she goes very far in this game as well.

[peachmangosteen]

3 hours ago, Nashville said:

And my guess would be, Adam talks a metric shit-ton more than everybody else on the tribe. So TPTB simply have more footage of Adam to use for THs.

I don't know if he talks more, but he certainly says the types of things TPTB like/think the audience will be entertained by.

3 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

The contestants this season seemed down on EOE, which makes me think if they'd vote for a winner from there, regardless of who it is.  Chris, who won S38, seemed to have a really quiet edit while on Edge, so I wouldn't rule out people who aren't getting a lot of screen time.  It also seems logical they'd focus on Rob, Tyson, Parvati, Amber, and Ethan over Danni.  Natalie got some good screen time at first, but now even she's faded into the background.

I kinda forgot about how invisible Chris was most of the time so you're right, Danni probably still has a decent shot. Especially since, like you said, the other people on EoE are Production/fan faves so obviously they're going to show them more.

At this point, the only person I'd be shocked to see win is Adam because he's just getting way too much of a bumbling fool edit and I don't think they'd be laying it on that thick if he won. 

[LadyChatts]

15 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

I don't know if he talks more, but he certainly says the types of things TPTB like/think the audience will be entertained by.

I kinda forgot about how invisible Chris was most of the time so you're right, Danni probably still has a decent shot. Especially since, like you said, the other people on EoE are Production/fan faves so obviously they're going to show them more.

At this point, the only person I'd be shocked to see win is Adam because he's just getting way too much of a bumbling fool edit and I don't think they'd be laying it on that thick if he won. 

I always have to go look up his name because I can't remember it.  That probably didn't help with his reception as a winner, either, that we never saw him.  Even in his short time back in the game he was still invisible.  

I think the first couple merge episodes will be telling, as I feel that's when the game really starts.  I'm with you, though, that I think Adam has probably the worst chance of everyone left, followed by Wendell.  He keeps bragging about being a villain this season, and with his edit, I just don't see it suddenly turning around.  I wouldn't rule out Tony, because I think his edit is just Tony.  Old Dakal hasn't really had a chance to play yet.  The two votes they had before the swap were easy, and then the Sandra blindside they thought they were going for an easy vote, based on numbers.  And even on NuSele/Yara, Sarah/Sophie are in an excellent spot, and Yul seemed to set himself up to get voted out.  So I'm curious to see the strategy from those members when it becomes a real individual game.   

And considering how Adam constantly puts his foot in mouth, I think one of two things happens to him going forward: either he sets himself up like he did with the Parvati vote (which ended up being Ethan), only to get blindsided (either out of the game or by someone that isn't who his target was), or he just gets into an alliance and is a goat.  I think he'll try to make moves and plays, but given who he's playing against, and how it's gone for him so far, I don't have faith he'll pull it off.

Edited March 27, 2020 by LadyChatts

[Eolivet]

I was intrigued by something I read in the episode thread, which is essentially Michele is getting a decent edit because it's the editors redeeming themselves for her win (if you said, it kudos to you, you're brilliant). Saying in essence, "See? She deserved her win, and here's why."

Adam, whose mvgx edit was low-key but not bad, complained about his edit. A lot. At great length. Claiming they didn't show enough of his social game and all his great relationships. To the point that Dan Foley could have sent him a telegram, all, "Dude."

And there's a tiny part of me who wonders if this "Adam trips over his shoelaces" edit isn't the editors going, "Oh, you didn't think we showed your social game? How's this? Can't say we didn't show you enough now."

[Eolivet]

Double-posting because of this in the episode thread, and something I've been thinking about lately:

Quote

On the other hand, we have Adam making blunder after blunder, and not getting voted out

Something @peachmangosteen said in Adam's thread about him being set up for an epic fall (or an epic fail) got me thinking how much his edit resembles Noura's last season. Or Angelina's in David vs Goliath. And it made me wonder if Adam does go far in the season because he's the biggest goat. His "I know Ben and Sarah have an idol, I'm not stupid!" reminds me of Angelina's "I'm really good at talking my way out of parking tickets" confessionals. That Adam is the fool of this season, as Angelina was the fool of hers and Noura was last year's fool (albeit a fool-turned-challenge-beast). It seems Adam only exists to put his foot in his mouth (sometimes almost literally), with comic pratfalls and blustering confessionals. It's not a sympathetic edit, it's not an underdog or villain edit. It's the fool's edit.

(Watch me be wrong, as I almost always am. But rewatching last episode ... the Yara footage really only exists to remind everyone Sophie has an idol, and for Adam to look ridiculous.)

Edited March 30, 2020 by Eolivet

[skybolt]

Based purely on the edits (not the actual challenge itself), which EoE players have the least chance of coming back into the game at this point? I think Dani and Parvati have no shot. IMO, even Amber has a very small chance, since Rob's edit could spill over into her game (if he decides to give her his 3 tokens as a parting gift). Speaking of that, not sure when the idol can be purchased for the returning players (only Natalie and Rob actually qualify at this point) if they join the other 11 after the challenge. Do they have to make this transaction while still on the EoE island (before the challenge takes place) or do they have a grace period after getting back to camp to purchase the idol? If it's back at camp, then why can't Michelle have that option too with her 3 tokens? Is it possible that once we have the challenge and the merge, all of a sudden the fire token menu will spill over into the real game? At that point we could start seeing players pooling their fire tokens together for an idol.

[LadyChatts]

I thought Sophie's edit went in an interesting direction tonight.  She seemed very observant of what was going on between Jeremy/Wendell, correctly saying they needed to get rid of Wendell.  And she also made the remark about Denise putting a target on herself by telling the Sandra story.  With EOE in play, it's hard to determine, especially because the S38 winner barely got any screen time out there.  

I don't think Ben wins after tonight.  I was debating whether he might redeem himself, but I'm back to saying nope.  Kim also has disappeared into the background (I forgot she was even there until the challenge).

[skybolt]

Based on the edits so far, I don't believe any of the players still on EoE are coming back to the game (except maybe Wendell since he just got there). Natalie has had very little to say since Rob and Tyson got there. Amber and Dani have been invisible. Yul has pretty much been mute, even in the secret scenes. Parvati has gotten a blah edit all season. Ethan's edit is mostly about his journey at the edge. The only person remaining who's had some decent screen time has been Rob, but the 2 heartfelt confessionals he's had about how he's coming back to win have been relegated to secret scenes that were dropped from the real episode. It does appear that someone eliminated after the merge will likely come back. I like Tyson, but that would be weird if he gets back after being eliminated twice.

[LadyChatts]

I don’t know if I’d put too much stock into what’s going on at EOE yet.  Tyson was the first returning player so he made a lot of sense getting a big edit out there.  But the eventual winner of S38 barely got any screen time, and was the second returning player, so I don’t know if I’m paying too much attention to the edit.  Now that EOE is only competing with one tribe for airtime, maybe we’ll see more of the players out there.

[skybolt]

From an editing standpoint, does Kim have any shot of winning this game? At the pivotal merger tribal council, players like Sophie and Tony spoke at least twice, while we heard nothing from Kim again. When she mentioned wanting to start her game a week or 2 ago, I assumed she'd get a lot more air time moving forward, if she was the eventual winner. However, after being relegated to the background again, I see zero chance of that happening right now.

[Eolivet]

Yeah, Adam's "90% of Survivor winners are in the majority in the first vote at the merge" statistic is going to have a large margin of error in lopsided votes like this one. Still, if you take it at face value, winners' candidates remain:

Adam (lol no)

Ben

Denise

Jeremy

Kim

Sarah

Sophie

Tony

Tyson

Which means only Nick and Michele aren't winners' candidates, based on that statistic alone. First time I realized nu-Dakal and Yara plus Tyson, teamed up against nu-Sele.

[kstar821]

19 hours ago, Eolivet said:

Yeah, Adam's "90% of Survivor winners are in the majority in the first vote at the merge" statistic is going to have a large margin of error in lopsided votes like this one. Still, if you take it at face value, winners' candidates remain:

Adam (lol no)

Ben

Denise

Jeremy

Kim

Sarah

Sophie

Tony

Tyson

Which means only Nick and Michele aren't winners' candidates, based on that statistic alone. First time I realized nu-Dakal and Yara plus Tyson, teamed up against nu-Sele.

And I'm fine with this.  I cannot stand Michele.  I had to look her up to see when she won *shrug*

Personally, with who is left, I'm on team Sophie/Sarah/Tony or Denise.  

I will forever love Tyson, though.  I know he's not for everyone (my 10 year old can't stand him) but I flove his deadpan humor.

[skybolt]

1 hour ago, kstar821 said:

And I'm fine with this.  I cannot stand Michele.  I had to look her up to see when she won *shrug*

Personally, with who is left, I'm on team Sophie/Sarah/Tony or Denise.  

I will forever love Tyson, though.  I know he's not for everyone (my 10 year old can't stand him) but I love his deadpan humor.

I can get on board with Sophie/Sarah/Tony. I like Kim, but she needs to step it up big time, especially if she wants to impress the jury.  For instance, I noticed grumpy Rob slightly nodding in the affirmative as Sophie was explaining building an alliance and trusting in it. Kim's comments were likely edited out at tribal, but doubt if they carried any gravitas anyway. I like Tyson as well, but still hate anyone being voted out winning the game. I'm on the fence with Jeremy, Denise and Nick, but definitely don't want Michelle, Adam or Ben to win.

The other day I was thinking whether it made sense for me to cheer for Sophie now considering she was #20 on my list of Winner at War favorites before the season started. However, I quickly realized that most of the old school winners were acquired tastes for me as well. I hated Rob in Marquesas. Same with Tyson for his first 2 seasons. I started liking Parvati towards the end of her second season (wanted weepy Amanda to win). I was cheering for Spencer over Tony in Cagayan, but now love Tony. Heck, I was even cheering for Kelly Wigglesworth to beat Richard in the first season, but quickly realized how wrong I was on re-watch.

[AncientNewbie]

Just a tangent off what @skybolt said, but I've been rewatching some older stuff during this time I'm grounded and can't get out...and I was completely sucked in by the editing in the earlier seasons. I'm getting completely different reads on a lot of players I loved/hated now that I have more context. (And am not wired with Must See TV (or whatever CBS would call it) on a once-a-week schedule.)

[skybolt]

Here's an update to a list I previously made with respect to which survivors have the best chance to win based on edits. Of course things could easily change in one or two more episodes.

None:

Any returning player from EoE. Someone like Rob may get Parvati, Ethan and Amber's vote, but that's about it. In this week's secret scene Tyson mentioned that he's 100% winning the game if he comes back and makes it to final tribal. Yeah, whatever. 

Slim:

Jeremy - Similar to Wendell before he got voted out, his edits have been fairly negative lately. That's twice now they've shown him turning his back on an alliance. For instance, they could've easily edited out Wendell calling him out.

Ben - Ben is in a fantastic position to make final tribal, but the edits haven't given him much credit for his great social game. He's been portrayed more like a messenger boy up to this point.

Fair:

Michelle - Michelle's season has been really up and down. She has been blindsided by a couple of vote outs and didn't even vote out Wendell. The only reason why she has a fair chance is because of her redemption arc from her initial win. 

Nick - Was invisible early on, but at least he hasn't been portrayed in a negative way. He's also portrayed as the underdog this season.

Kim - Last week was a great episode for her, even if her idol move didn't work. She's moving up, but her lack of air time during the first 9 episodes is a concern. It could be a case of too little too late.

Good: 

Sarah - I almost went with fair since is at times she has been portrayed as being snarky, but if she winds up blindsiding Tony, Ben or Sophie then perhaps she's getting the villain edit who winds up winning the whole thing. Let's be honest, if this was a heroes vs. villains season, she'd be one of the top villains.

Denise - She has had a lot of focus this season, but her confessionals have been lacking lately. Similar to Sarah, I almost put her as fair, but maybe the editors want to downplay her game a bit after the Sandra move.

Excellent: 

Sophie - For someone who plays a very under the radar type of game, Sophie has gotten a great winner's edit thus far. My only concern for her is that sometimes she's too under the radar. When she recommended voting out Wendell, she also noted that she wanted to target Nick as an ally. However, even though that happened, it was made to seem like Tony was responsible for it. Ahh, the darned family visit strikes again!

Tony: - A few weeks ago I had his chances of winning at being slim, especially since they only showed him as being a goofball. Now I realize that this was the game he purposely played until the merge. He's certainly getting a lot of air time now. Either he goes out with a blaze of glory over the next 2 episodes, or he has a great chance to win this game.

[Eolivet]

All I can say is if Adam does raise the flag, as others have speculated may be foreshadowed in this past episode, that completely explains his hideous edit. Making him the buffoon. The butt of all jokes.

If it happens, that would explain a lot of things. If it doesn't, the editors just really did not like him.

[LadyChatts]

1 hour ago, Eolivet said:

All I can say is if Adam does raise the flag, as others have speculated may be foreshadowed in this past episode, that completely explains his hideous edit. Making him the buffoon. The butt of all jokes.

If it happens, that would explain a lot of things. If it doesn't, the editors just really did not like him.

I wonder if Adam played like this the first time, but they didn't show it for two reasons-he won, so no way they'd want to paint the winner that bad (especially after the polarizing end to the previous season when Michele won), and also with his mom being sick (I don't think she had died at that point, correct?), they clearly weren't going to make him look horrible when he's crying about how he and his mom were superfans, and it was her dream to come see him play.  But after this season, I'm questioning how good of an edit a lot of these people got their first time around.  Either that or they were just lucky to have things go their way all season.

[Hera]

31 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

Either that or they were just lucky to have things go their way all season.

I think luck is a perennially underestimated factor in anyone's win (and therefore also a factor in everyone else's loss). Take Yul: yes, he played a good game in Cook Islands—especially in how he managed Jonathan—but he was also really lucky that he had a close ally, Becky, with whom he got to play the entire game. Additionally, he lucked out that the person who figured out how to nullify his idol, Cao Boi, didn't figure out that Yul had it, and trusted Yul enough to share his idea with him. Yul was able to get rid of Cao Boi at the next opportunity, which prevented anyone from finding out about his idol until he was ready to tell them. This time, he wasn't so lucky with tribe swaps and split votes are now a standard part of Survivor with or without an overpowered idol.

I think you could go back in any season and pick apart the points where the winner caught a lucky break (or several).

As for this season, I think Tony currently has a very strong edit. Mind you, they pretty much had to show him in this last episode (the Sophie blindside) because he engineered it. Plus he got the extortion disadvantage. However, I agree with most of @skybolt's rankings (minus the part about Sophie), though I'd promote Michele to having a "good" chance of winning. I feel like she's been a presence in most episodes, even when she's ultimately left out of the vote. I also don't think anyone is really getting a villain edit this season—I think returnees (and especially former winners) are less likely to take scheming and backstabbing personally.

[AncientNewbie]

Tony had a great edit tonight. It was Hantz-esque how much of the episode was his schemes and antics. Even the fun little fashion show got a quote about people not playing as hard as him. 

[skybolt]

On 4/23/2020 at 12:55 AM, Hera said:

I think luck is a perennially underestimated factor in anyone's win (and therefore also a factor in everyone else's loss). Take Yul: yes, he played a good game in Cook Islands—especially in how he managed Jonathan—but he was also really lucky that he had a close ally, Becky, with whom he got to play the entire game. Additionally, he lucked out that the person who figured out how to nullify his idol, Cao Boi, didn't figure out that Yul had it, and trusted Yul enough to share his idea with him. Yul was able to get rid of Cao Boi at the next opportunity, which prevented anyone from finding out about his idol until he was ready to tell them. This time, he wasn't so lucky with tribe swaps and split votes are now a standard part of Survivor with or without an overpowered idol.

I think you could go back in any season and pick apart the points where the winner caught a lucky break (or several).

As for this season, I think Tony currently has a very strong edit. Mind you, they pretty much had to show him in this last episode (the Sophie blindside) because he engineered it. Plus he got the extortion disadvantage. However, I agree with most of @skybolt's rankings (minus the part about Sophie), though I'd promote Michele to having a "good" chance of winning. I feel like she's been a presence in most episodes, even when she's ultimately left out of the vote. I also don't think anyone is really getting a villain edit this season—I think returnees (and especially former winners) are less likely to take scheming and backstabbing personally.

I absolutely agree. I also think that a player like Tony can use that luck factor (no matter how small) to win over jury votes (if he makes it that far) to not appear too overconfident. If I were him, I would bring up the Sandra blindside and note that it could've easily been him going out that night if Denise did not flip on Sandra. He then used that 5% of luck to reignite his game and go for broke. He could also mention that unfortunately some players sitting in the jury didn't get that small piece of luck to showcase their skills. 

The one thing I like about Tony vs. players like Russell or Boston Rob (whom I also like) is that he does try to appear to be humble in front of others. For instance, Russell would've told Nick, Michelle and Jeremy that they're at the bottom and if they want to survive another tribal council they need to give him a fire token each so he can pay the extortion. Tony on the other hand just pleaded his situation and thanked them when they gave him the tokens. He did not use fear tactics or blow up at Michelle for not coming through. He let his actions speak for themselves. Also, when talking to Nick about the Sophie blindside, he cleverly made it seem that they could both take credit for it, and Jeremy and Michelle would owe them. He even let Jeremy tell Michelle to make it seem like he has some power in the decision. Tony is a master at making you think that you're actually making moves, when it's obvious that you're just going along with his plan.

Edited April 28, 2020 by skybolt

[skybolt]

Here's my current list of who has the best chance at winning Season 40 based on the edits:

Slim:

Ben - The only thing he had going for him was that he was on the right side of the vote every tribal. With that streak ended I honestly don't even see him making final tribal.

Nick - His editing has been very sub par, including smelling his arm pits. 

EoE Returning Player: Last week I said there was zero chance of a returning player winning the whole thing, but my concern is that no one else appears to be getting a winner's edit other than Tony (now that Sophie is gone). If Tony is voted out, this opens the door for a returning player to receive all the air time, hence have a better shot at winning.

Fair:

Kim - I was listening to Russell Hantz's podcast and he had a good analogy regarding Kim's game.  He said that she's like a sniper taking shots at people from long distance. She's missing all her shots right now, but is bound to connect sooner or later. I think players in the majority will realize this soon enough and vote her out. She needs to find an idol or go on an immunity challenge run. She's too smart to keep around for someone playing from the bottom. The other concern for her is that whatever she's said at tribal has been edited out 60% of the time.

Jeremy - Although I had him as slim last week, he does seem to be getting the edit of a survivor playing from the bottom. I also think that whoever winds up taking out Tony (if that happens) will automatically move up a couple of notches on this list. Either you have a good resume or you take out someone with a great resume.

Sarah - Now that she's in a minority alliance (if she goes against Tony), I had to knock her down to "Fair". I also think that she's playing with way too much emotion, and it could blow up her game. It just feels like all the edits thus far between her and Tony have shown that Tony is making the smarter play.

Good:

Denise - She's till flying under the radar and has one of the best 2 moves of the game still under her belt. The lack of confessionals is a bad sign, but I had to elevate someone to good.

Michelle - I agree with @Hera that Michelle should be upgraded to good. Although she's been blindsided and played mostly from the bottom this season, we have witnessed her whole game. What I mean is that the editors are using what they have of her to show what her progression is like throughout the game. Maybe her big move is to blindside Tony. Who knows.

Excellent:

I love Tony's game and am afraid that he's being showcased to elevate someone else's game for voting him out. If that happens then kudos to the remaining players for doing that. However, I would be super pissed if someone like Tyson (who's already been voted out twice by Tony) comes back with an idol in his pocket at final 6 and takes out Tony that way. My worst fear is someone like Danni comes back and we're left with her, Ben and Nick at the end. That would be downright depressing. 

 

[Eolivet]

Tony this season is giving me Rick Devens vibes, down to the hustling and working and playing the game at full-speed when everyone else seems to be half-awake. I've grown wary of the "suddenly likable, rootable guy" edits, they usually spell doom. (see also: Malcolm in Game Changers)

[peachmangosteen]

That's a great point. I actually hope that is the edit he's getting because him just continuing to dominate and then win is boring imo. But, someone else emerging and maybe even leading the charge to get rid of him would be fun and would make the ending more interesting to me.

[AncientNewbie]

1 minute ago, peachmangosteen said:

That's a great point. I actually hope that is the edit he's getting because him just continue to dominate and then win is boring imo. But, someone else emerging and maybe even leading the charge to get rid of him would be fun and would make the ending more interesting to me.

 

That's my concern. I enjoy Manic Tony Does Well bits, but a final few eps of Tony running circles around the dingbats would get old awfully fast.

[skybolt]

28 minutes ago, AncientNewbie said:

 

That's my concern. I enjoy Manic Tony Does Well bits, but a final few eps of Tony running circles around the dingbats would get old awfully fast.

If Tony is blindsided, then I hope one of the remaining players orchestrates it. I just hope it's not a returning player with an idol in their pocket voting out Tony (with everyone else voting against the returning player). Jeff Probst would see that as a spectacular move, but for me it would be really disappointing. The whole game is about who you can trick into keeping you around within the insulated game, and not having 13 people sitting at EoE comparing notes on who's the biggest threat to take out if one of them got back into the game.

[LadyChatts]

3 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

That's a great point. I actually hope that is the edit he's getting because him just continuing to dominate and then win is boring imo. But, someone else emerging and maybe even leading the charge to get rid of him would be fun and would make the ending more interesting to me.

I might normally agree, except Tony’s the only one left that I want to see win.  Sarah would be a distant second, but I’ll pass on everyone else.  
 

That said, I can see where they might be setting Tony up to get blindsided.  All the comments at the past TC, especially Sarah’s ‘it’s your move’ for your resume made me wonder if she ends up being Tony’s demise.  Sarah seems like the type that wouldn’t want to be upstaged.

[skybolt]

57 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

That said, I can see where they might be setting Tony up to get blindsided.  All the comments at the past TC, especially Sarah’s ‘it’s your move’ for your resume made me wonder if she ends up being Tony’s demise.  Sarah seems like the type that wouldn’t want to be upstaged.

I also saw this as foreshadowing Sophie's blindside by Tony.

[peachmangosteen]

3 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I might normally agree, except Tony’s the only one left that I want to see win.  Sarah would be a distant second, but I’ll pass on everyone else.  

I don't care who wins. I'm not rooting for or against any of them. I just want the ending to be interesting and unpredictable.

[skybolt]

15 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

I don't care who wins. I'm not rooting for or against any of them. I just want the ending to be interesting and unpredictable.

I think that's one of the problems this season with the new school players voting out the old school ones early in the game. They just became complacent since it was easy to identify a big threat and join forces to vote them out. Denise had a great blindside against Sandra, but again it was vs. an old school player. Kim decided not to do anything until 2 episodes ago and is happy not winning immunity challenges with only 8 players left. Jeremy is mostly sitting on his bench waiting for people to come to him. Ben just goes with the numbers and does nothing else. He doesn't even look for idols anymore. Sarah is putting on fashion shows and being complacent with her top 5. I get that we want the ending to be unpredictable, but at the same time these other players need to step it up and play the game. The last thing I want is for Ben to do nothing and then win at the end because of a sob story, even if it's unpredictable.

My gut tells me that if Tony didn't have an idol and was voted out next, the following week the remaining players will just come to a consensus to vote out Jeremy so they don't get stressed out with trying to strategize.

Edited April 29, 2020 by skybolt

[skybolt]

With the edits we've gotten thus far, is there even a remote possibility that either Ben or Nick win this game? I feel like 5 or 6 people on EoE have a better shot at winning than those 2.

Edited May 1, 2020 by skybolt

[peachmangosteen]

34 minutes ago, skybolt said:

With the edits we've gotten thus far, is there even a remote possibility that either Ben or Nick win this game? I feel like 5 or 6 people on EoE have a better shot at winning than those 2.

Nick can definitely still win imo. He keeps making statements about how he's going to do something so maybe eventually he does and he takes the game in his hands. They haven't made him look like such a fool or goat to suggest he has no chance.

Now, Ben, yea, I can't see him winning. He's being shown as a childish asshole who has done nothing but follow someone else all season.

[AncientNewbie]

I'd agree it's a no on Ben. Maybe I've read too much 115 over this isolation, but I've started paying attention a lot more to little things seeking editor/production commentary. His "million doesn't last" seems the sort of (probably true and innocuous among the cohort) comment that a winner wouldn't be seen saying given the marketing of the show.

Nick...he's a different animal. His storyline was never troubled macho gamer. He's a social guy and a ruminator, so he could be salvaged with a quick turn to "I've been looking lost, but I know everything that goes on here."

I'm still sort of hoping for CGI Brett, the true winner of Samoa, to pull this off.

[skybolt]

I have another question. When did Jeff state that they likely won't bring back EoE? If this statement was made after Season 40 ended, I'd be really worried that someone coming back from EoE has won their respective season both times. Perhaps the TPTB realized that it's unfair that the returning player has a leg up on the remaining players since they've had a chance to build that relationship with the jury. The whole idea is dumb. If you try and make a play to the jury with big moves during tribal, you risk putting a big target on your back for the returning player trying to blow up your game. If you keep low key, then the jury will see the returning player as having a better resume vs. someone who hasn't showcased their skill-set in fear of being targeted.

Edited May 1, 2020 by skybolt

[ByaNose]

On 5/1/2020 at 10:12 AM, peachmangosteen said:

Nick can definitely still win imo. He keeps making statements about how he's going to do something so maybe eventually he does and he takes the game in his hands. They haven't made him look like such a fool or goat to suggest he has no chance.

Now, Ben, yea, I can't see him winning. He's being shown as a childish asshole who has done nothing but follow someone else all season.

Up until last week the only storyline Adam had was entering stage right/left which was hysterical. Ben storyline has been that he annoyed the heck out of Adam & now Jeremy. I agree that Ben isn't winning. I'm not sure he gets "dragged" to the Final 4 due to that but I doubt he would win. Nice is still up in the air for. He's getting more air time and the editors keep dropping in sounds bites of him saying he's going to make a big move. I don't know what that is but I think the odds are much more in Nick’s corner then Ben's.

Edited May 2, 2020 by ByaNose

[skybolt]

7 hours ago, ByaNose said:

Up until last week the only storyline Adam had was entering stage right/left which was hysterical. Ben storyline has been that he annoyed the heck out of Adam & now Jeremy. I agree that Ben isn't winning. I'm not sure he gets "dragged" to the Final 4 due to that but I doubt he would win. Nice is still up in the air for. He's getting more air time and the editors keep dropping in sounds bites of him saying he's going to make a big move. I don't know what that is but I think the odds are much more in Adam's corner then Ben's.

I think you mean Nick in the last sentence. In any case, Kim was constantly shown talking about making a big move, but it never panned out.

[Josh371982]

14 hours ago, skybolt said:

I have another question. When did Jeff state that they likely won't bring back EoE? If this statement was made after Season 40 ended, I'd be really worried that someone coming back from EoE has won their respective season both times. Perhaps the TPTB realized that it's unfair that the returning player has a leg up on the remaining players since they've had a chance to build that relationship with the jury. The whole idea is dumb. If you try and make a play to the jury with big moves during tribal, you risk putting a big target on your back for the returning player trying to blow up your game. If you keep low key, then the jury will see the returning player as having a better resume vs. someone who hasn't showcased their skill-set in fear of being targeted.

Jeff has said there was a lot of negativy towards the first EOE season from viewers.

[SVNBob]

15 hours ago, skybolt said:

When did Jeff state that they likely won't bring back EoE? If this statement was made after Season 40 ended,

Technically it was after S40 ended, as he said this at the event for the premiere.  Specifically, I think he said it to Cesternino on the red carpet.

However, he didn't exactly say they won't bring back EoE.  He said they're going to shelve the concept for a while and possibly retool it before bringing it back.

[peachmangosteen]

12 hours ago, skybolt said:

I think you mean Nick in the last sentence. In any case, Kim was constantly shown talking about making a big move, but it never panned out.

They also showed Michele talking about making the big move to go after Wendell and then she never did. So, maybe Nick never does anything and it's all part of a 'they talked a big game but fizzled out' story or maybe Nick actually does something and the story is, 'Nick was the one to finally make that big move!' and then he wins.

[skybolt]

With only 2 episodes left, let's go over which player has the best chance to win based on the edits:

Slim:

Ben - Hasn't really done anything all game. His edits have been very negative. Even moments of him searching for idols or opening up about his war experience have been relegated to secret scenes.

Nick - I know people will disagree with me on this, but the edits haven't been kind to Nick. He's also been shown smelling his armpit or totally getting tongue tied when Tony confronts him. Unlike most of the other players remaining, he hasn't even been much involved in secret scenes. On paper he still has a chance, but the edits haven't been that good.

Fair:

Jeremy - He has gotten a decent amount of screen time and keeps escaping getting voted out every week. It would be a good comeback story, but his story is mostly tied to Tony's recently.

Denise - She could easily move up to excellent next week if she gets an idol from EoE and blindsides Tony, or even Sarah (especially combined with the Sandra blindside). My one concern for her is that even though she's still winning immunities, the edits have concentrated on Kim being the architect of their moves.

Good:

Sarah - She's currently overshadowed by Tony, but if she wins this season, it won't be a surprise from an editing standpoint.

Michelle - For better or worse we've witnessed her entire game. All the moves she's made, the edits have shown them.

EoE Returnee - I'm starting to think that the reason other players haven't gotten a winner's edit is because either Tony or a returning player wins. I don't like it, but let's say Tony is out by final 5, editing may not want us invested in the remaining players (vs. the EoE returnee).

Excellent:

Tony - He could easily get blindsided this week, but his edits have been great.

 

 

[peachmangosteen]

I would switch Jeremy and Nick. Nick's edit is bad but I still think there's a chance he actually follows through on his declarations that he's going to make a move and then his edit would open right up. Also, Nick's edit this season isn't too far off of his edit from DvG while I feel Jeremy is getting a much worse edit this time than he has before.

I would also put Sarah more in fair tbh. After merge, she's been shown as more of just a number for Tony than a driving force in the game imo. Plus, I think if the other players wise up and finally go after Tony, they might go after her first just to weaken him.

It's hard with the EoE returnee. I do think a lot of them have a good enough edit that they could win but at the same time I can't really see these players wanting to vote for the EoE returnee.

[skybolt]

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

I would switch Jeremy and Nick. Nick's edit is bad but I still think there's a chance he actually follows through on his declarations that he's going to make a move and then his edit would open right up. Also, Nick's edit this season isn't too far off of his edit from DvG while I feel Jeremy is getting a much worse edit this time than he has before.

I would also put Sarah more in fair tbh. After merge, she's been shown as more of just a number for Tony than a driving force in the game imo. Plus, I think if the other players wise up and finally go after Tony, they might go after her first just to weaken him.

It's hard with the EoE returnee. I do think a lot of them have a good enough edit that they could win but at the same time I can't really see these players wanting to vote for the EoE returnee.

Thanks for your input. Everything you said makes sense. When I make these predictions I go more off the edits than the overall strategy in play. I almost upgraded Nick to fair, but I don't remember him getting such a goofy edit his first time around. The whole smelling the armpit, getting duped by Tony regarding where to look for the idol, getting tongue tied because he couldn't lie properly, etc. could've been easily edited out for the eventual winner (especially for an all winners season). Sarah is a tough one, but she did get the fashion show segment, as well as a few secret scenes, which Nick hasn't gotten.