Survivor 42 Spoilers

[LadyChatts]

I'll also add to this something Jonathan said about her.  He told Hai that MaryAnne was the next to go from their tribe.  But it wasn't because they didn't trust her or anything, just that she was the odd person out (unlike Chanelle and Tori on their respective tribes, who couldn't be trusted).  In addition, MaryAnne got brought into this big alliance by default.  They needed her, and she needed them, and somehow she'll probably skate through the next few votes because she won't be seen as a target.  If it keeps up with Lindsey wanting her out and bringing up her idol and extra vote, I'd bet anything she in turn gets Lindsey out.  And since 3 members of Taku had their names written down tonight, that might also explain why they seemingly stick together.  It seems like Ika and Vati are more fractured, again going back to Jonathan saying he had nothing against MaryAnne, she just would have been unlucky if they had to go to TC again.  So it really all comes back to giving her a winners arc.

[DEL901]

And even the spoiler of Mike and Jonathan building fire makes sense.   If anyone can build fire, it is the ex fireman. And if anyone could win it all, it is Jonathan, unless his edit radically changes.  I’m guessing he wins f5 immunity, but not f4.  

[LadyChatts]

11 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

I have no reason to not believe the rest of this boot list either. Every single boot has happened as stated. I agree with you that some of these boots might be out of order, but I think the final 3 of Romeo, Mike, and Maryanne is correct and Maryanne does win it all.

To add to this, it's rumored that Romeo wins the F4 IC and sends Jonathan and Mike to fire.  He seems gung ho on setting up alliances with the skinny people, and didn't hide his disdain for Mike and Jonathan tonight.  So that could also be something that happens, and would make sense why he'd send those two to fire.  Not sure if he'll realize he's disliked or not, but he may think he has a chance against MaryAnne.  Mike seems nice, but kind of dumb when it comes to the game.  Omar's uptick in edit tonight, and showing him being the mastermind at getting people to vote Lydia has me intrigued.  But I really feel like there's more people left who have no chance vs those who have a chance.

Even if someone in the rumored final 3 goes before that, I'm still confident it's correct otherwise.  Last season Tiffany was rumored as the winner, but pretty sure it was Xander and Deshawn the whole time as the other two people in the final 3. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

Rocksroys boot makes less sense after tonight.  But I’m going with he quickly annoys his fellow tribe mates and is just the odd man out.  Drea’s comments at TC about not staying loyal and taking the game day by day probably doesn't bode well for the alliance she has with him.  It’s also possible he’s done in by an idol.  With all of those and advantages in the game, someone has to be a causality.  
 

Tori just isn’t well liked and we saw people being told tonight not to trust her.  I’m guessing lack of allies and trust does her in.  Hai, if I had to guess, I think he just overplays his hand.  Watching him tonight I feel like it’s setting that up.  Last episode, Lydia made the comment about the two of them calling the shots, and I feel that came back to bite them tonight.  He may regret getting rid of her.  

Edited April 14, 2022 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

7 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

To add to this, it's rumored that Romeo wins the F4 IC and sends Jonathan and Mike to fire.  He seems gung ho on setting up alliances with the skinny people, and didn't hide his disdain for Mike and Jonathan tonight.  So that could also be something that happens, and would make sense why he'd send those two to fire.  Not sure if he'll realize he's disliked or not, but he may think he has a chance against MaryAnne.  Mike seems nice, but kind of dumb when it comes to the game.  Omar's uptick in edit tonight, and showing him being the mastermind at getting people to vote Lydia has me intrigued.  But I really feel like there's more people left who have no chance vs those who have a chance.

Even if someone in the rumored final 3 goes before that, I'm still confident it's correct otherwise.  Last season Tiffany was rumored as the winner, but pretty sure it was Xander and Deshawn the whole time as the other two people in the final 3. 

I don't think Romeo has disdain for Jonathon and Mike, I think he knows that he cannot beat them in a physical competition. He is avoiding the term alpha or jock, that is all. And the skinny thing is just a ploy to find some common ground based in a physical similarity. Instead of saying "we need to vote out the Alpha's or Jocks" he is is using big. I don't see it as any different then the people who want to get together a women's alliance or an African American alliance, or a Jock's alliance. It seems to be as effective a ploy as the above mentions attempts as well. 

Romeo cannot win a physical competition against Jonathon, hell, no one can win a physical competition against Jonathon, so Jonathon is a threat. Mike seems to be the next most physical male. Hai seems to be in good shape but no one is calling him a physical threat, except for Hai. I actually think Lindsey and Drea are probably 3 and 4 on the physical threat list ahead of Hai.

[Lady Calypso]

5 hours ago, Brendan Birch said:

Yeah, I should've remembered that about Tori.  But aren't she and Rocksroy supposed to go out in one of those separate Tribal Councils with two smaller tribes that compete for immunity, with one member from each tribe winning it?  If so, Rocksroy could end up just on the wrong side of the numbers on whatever tribe he's on at that time.  That would make sense, at least.

Rocksroy and Tori do go out the same night, with the dual Tribal Councils. So I do think Rocksroy goes out based on the fact that: a) Chanelle's already gone; and b) Tori's on the other tribe. He's the next on the chopping block merely because he probably doesn't have the bonds that the others do. Plus, I foresee people seeing how Tori is correct with how Rocksroy is at camp and being annoyed at him. 

The edit really does set up a Maryanne win. I can now see Jonathan voting Mike with them bonding this episode. Though they also set up Rocksroy not voting Maryanne (I think he had a confessional about being annoyed at Maryanne?).

I can also now completely see how Mike could botch the FTC.

[ProfCrash]

Mike is kind of a slightly more filtered Rudy. He has discussed his love of eating all things meat while Hai was breaking down over eating some crab. Tonight it was all about being a "Man's man" and bonding with Jonathon over strength and manly stuff. I don't think Mike is a jerk or anything but I think he has a world view that is going to keep coming out and will clash with Romeo, Hai and anyone who doesn't think of the world in the more traditional roles/stereotypes. 

Mike has not been shown to be an asshole or mean or a jerk. He seems to get when his pronouncements might be problematic for someone, he kept apologizing to Hai during the crab thing and then would go on some more about how wonderful meat is. Then apologize again. His entire conversation about soccer was hilarious, as was his video on how soccer is a sport complete with teenage girls scoring on him in goal with ease. I think he sees where his ideas of what makes a man and the like clash with todays sensibilities. I also don't think he mistreats anyone who doesn't share his ideas. But I can see his pronouncements building and annoying some folks. 

[LadyChatts]

13 hours ago, Brendan Birch said:

Yeah, I should've remembered that about Tori.  But aren't she and Rocksroy supposed to go out in one of those separate Tribal Councils with two smaller tribes that compete for immunity, with one member from each tribe winning it?  If so, Rocksroy could end up just on the wrong side of the numbers on whatever tribe he's on at that time.  That would make sense, at least.

Actually it probably is that simple.  When I looked at the voting history last night, everyone that’s in the 8 person alliance voted for Lydia last night (except Lydia of course), and MaryAnne got brought in by default.  So Rocks, Romeo, Tori, and Chanelle are already on the outs.  Putting aside their other faults, it makes sense that 3 of them are the next boot.  Romeo probably isn’t seen as a threat.  Now the interesting question is how he survives all the way to the final 3, because he has no idols or advantages, and likely wouldn’t go on an immunity run.  Unless he gets an idol played on him, which also seems unlikely.  
 

Drea telling some of the group last night about her extra vote still makes me think she’s going out of the game with all her advantages in her pocket.  

[TVFan1]

When is Lindsay going to get the Knowledge Is Power advantage? Will other players know that she has it or will she successfully take someone's idol / advantage?

[DEL901]

4 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

When is Lindsay going to get the Knowledge Is Power advantage? Will other players know that she has it or will she successfully take someone's idol / advantage?

You mean the steal an advantage power Liane misused last season?    Right now all 3 amulet holders are in the game so it is an extra vote advantage.  Once one leaves, then it becomes a steal power. If only one is left in the game before it is used, it becomes an idol.  

[LadyChatts]

14 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

When is Lindsay going to get the Knowledge Is Power advantage? Will other players know that she has it or will she successfully take someone's idol / advantage?

Not sure when.  I checked the spoiler source and they didn’t say, just that she gets it and uses it correctly.  I was thinking she might target Drea (which is why Drea revealing her extra vote last night might come back to vote her).  She also keeps obsessing over MaryAnne’s idol and extra vote.  So now I’m not sure.  Maybe Mike, since he made the comment last night about not leaving the game with an idol in his pocket.  Lindsey kind of rubs me as someone who thinks she’s better and more of a threat in the game than she is, so whatever decision she makes may hurt her in the end.  If she does take MaryAnne’s idol, that could lean towards MaryAnne turning on Taku down the road.  

[LadyChatts]

So the spoiler source was wrong on who found the KIP advantage (they said Lindsey), but they did say it was used correctly.  So we'll see.  One theory is that maybe Drea wills it to her, as I saw someone post this idea on Reddit.  Not sure if this can be willed to someone, so again, we'll see.  So far, the boot order is holding up, and I'm starting to see the edits grow of how Romeo is a final 3 zero vote getter, and Mike probably bumbles his way through his FTC.  If the boot list stays intact, Rocksroy and Tori are the next to go.  Tori is an obvious boot, and if it is a split TC, Rocks may just be on the wrong side of the numbers. 

The following week could be interesting if Hai goes.  I'm also wondering how the heck Romeo manages to make it to the final 3 in the first place.  I also want to see if Drea gets voted off with every idol and advantage she has, because I think she's getting set up to fail.  She comes across as playing too hard and too confident.  Omar, too, although if the bootlist is accurate he makes final 5.  But he's also coming across a little too comfortable. 

I can't remember if I mentioned that there was an alternate final 6 floating around, that has MaryAnne in 6th, Jonathan 5th, Romeo 4th (fire making loser), and Omar, Mike, Lindsey as the final 3, with Lindsey winning.  I just don't know if I see Lindsey winning this late in the game.  MaryAnne has a great edit, and tonight she mentioned how she's using her emotions to manipulate people.  I guess we'll see if Lindsey has anything in the next couple of weeks, since it took Erika time to get going.  But MaryAnne is very popular, and supposedly TPTB were happy with how this season turned out.  A MaryAnne win seems like something they would be happy about.  

Edited April 21, 2022 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

3 minutes ago, Brendan Birch said:

That bootlist says that he's out at F6, not F5.  Unless something new came out stating the contrary.  Lindsay's the F5 boot, and Jonathan the F4 boot (after losing the fire-making challenge).

Your right, I don't know why I keep getting that backwards.  I wonder if MaryAnne idols him out at F6?  

[DEL901]

3 minutes ago, Brendan Birch said:

I'm thinking either Maryanne idols him or, or Lindsay uses her amulet.

Mike could idol Omar because he isn’t in the big guys club. 

[LadyChatts]

If Drea is voted out and doesn't use the KIP advantage, I wonder if it is re-hidden, Lindsey finds it and uses it?  At that point she'd only have MaryAnne and Mike to take something from, assuming neither has used their idols.  Mike seems pretty comfortable right now so he might be hanging onto his for a while.  The comment last week about not getting voted off with his idol in his pocket made me wonder if he does fall victim to it.

[ProfCrash]

Romeo would be an amazing goat. He is annoying everyone. No one is going to want to work with him and he is not a threat to win any challenge. He is not likely to get any votes at final tribal so why would you vote him out.

[TVFan1]

Yeah, Romeo seems to be the perfect goat to take to the end. With how paranoid he has been, and creating chaos, he is likely to not get any votes at the end. Him making final 3 with zero votes makes sense.

[Lady Calypso]

14 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

If Drea is voted out and doesn't use the KIP advantage, I wonder if it is re-hidden, Lindsey finds it and uses it?  At that point she'd only have MaryAnne and Mike to take something from, assuming neither has used their idols.  Mike seems pretty comfortable right now so he might be hanging onto his for a while.  The comment last week about not getting voted off with his idol in his pocket made me wonder if he does fall victim to it.

Drea not using that KIP advantage for the next three Tribals is what surprises me. Does she really try to hang on to that advantage into F7? She doesn't even play it for F7? The idea of that is just....perplexing to me. Even with all her advantages, you'd think she would want to get another idol ASAP, especially as the numbers dwindle down and especially once Hai goes. She would have two for sure idols in F7 if she did that, and she could have safely played one at F7, then one at F6 to get Lindsay out, and then still have one at F5 to play as well. She legit would have been in F4 if she played the KIP advantage at least during F7. 

Actually, none of this makes sense to me. If Lindsay does play KIP correctly, it means she can only play it after Drea leaves, where she has an idol. Unless Lindsay doesn't go for an idol, she would have two idols at F6, so why would she go out at 5? If she plays it on Jonathan at 6 or 5, then I'm gonna have to call that one of the worst moves. 

I see a scenario where Mike doesn't play his idol at all. Maryanne would probably need to at some point, especially if she really does turn on Taku at F6. 

[ProfCrash]

Playing that and taking an advantage or idol from someone you are not targeting. It is an aggressive play because you are taking a powerful object from someone else. You are also announcing to everyone else that you have said object if you are correct in your ask. Drea needs to be smart and not tell people she has this advantage so she can use it properly. Steal an idol at the beginning of a tribal that you don't feel safe at and stir the pot. Would people still put votes on you knowing that you have an idol to play and that you were not feeling safe? 

I can't see using it at the next tribal council knowing you are targeting Tori, Romeo, or Maryann, unless you are targeting Maryann and you don't want her to have an idol to play.

If you use it in the final tribal that it's power dies you pretty much say "I have to use this otherwise it is wasted and it is too powerful to waste. Sorry Mike/Maryann, but do you have an immunity idol?" 

[LadyChatts]

I'm curious how Drea goes out.  The person who said Lindsey got the KIP advantage also said it was used correctly this time, but maybe they are wrong about that part, too.  Drea seems confident, and if I was sitting on all those idols and advantages that would make me the envy of Scrooge McDuck, I'd feel confident, too.  But we've seen where that confidence has hurt players before when they left with idols and advantages in their pockets, or trusted the wrong people with their information.  So if the boot order stays correct, next two are Rocks/Tori, then Hai, then Drea.  It would make sense for Lindsey to want to target Drea if Hai is already gone.  People know she has idols and advantages to some extent, so that could come back to bite her.  Given things we've seen in the edit, I believe she is being set up for a downfall. 

Considering how personal Mike is taking the game, I wonder if she targets him for his idol, and that he wants to get her out as a result.  For some reason, I have a hard time thinking she'd got after MaryAnne.  Also, she can take advantages too, right?  So she could take Hai or Lindsey's amulet?  

I had read that idols and advantages do get played this season, and that production loved this season so much more than last season (apparently they didn't like the cast very much).  So I don't think production would be too crazy if all these idols and advantages never got played.  We saw Jeff last night remark about the advantage under the bench not being found last season.  

[128survivor]

What’s the story with no ponderosa this season ?

 

first time since season 16 

[LadyChatts]

3 hours ago, 128survivor said:

What’s the story with no ponderosa this season ?

 

first time since season 16 

No idea.  I keep seeing speculation that it had to do with how much production disliked S41, but that makes no sense.  The S42 cast are still going to Ponderosa regardless.  If I had to guess, it's probably budget.  Maybe something COVID related, since this was filmed last year, but that still wouldn't make sense if they did it for S41.  

Edited April 22, 2022 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

Here's information about who the two tribes will be for this week's double boot: MaryAnne, Drea, Tori, Jonathan, and Lindsey (they apparently win some kind of food reward, too).  So the other tribe would be Mike, Hai, Romeo, Rocks, and Omar.  So much for the guys alliance lol  Tori going seems like a no brainer from that tribe.  Drea has it out for her, so I hope Tori goes down with a blaze of glory and exposes all of Drea's advantages.

Rocksroy seems like an obvious boot I guess from that tribe, too.

ETA: We saw in the preview at the end of last week Lindsey and Jonathan talking on the beach, and she was saying she knows more than he realizes she does.  I wonder if she tells him about the amulet advantage with Drea and Hai?  Maybe this sets in motion their respective boots, as they are supposed to be the next two to go after Tori and Rocks.

Edited April 23, 2022 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

28 minutes ago, Brendan Birch said:

I think that must only happen because Romeo must win immunity or something.  Other than that, I don't see how they wouldn't vote out the only one of those five who's not in the core alliance.

That thought crossed my mind, and may very well be what happens.  Another interesting possibility is that we've seen Omar playing two sides (the big alliance and the outliers), so even though he seems more loyal to the larger alliance, maybe he goes to bat for Romeo?  He mentioned keeping options around this past week.  However, I'm not sure Mike would axe Rocks in favor of Romeo, and he seems dead set on sticking to a plan once it's been thought up.  All of the muscle is on the other tribe, so it is possible Romeo could win immunity.  Hai I don't think would vote out Rocks over Romeo, although we did see that bonding scene with them over being gay and out about it.  I kind of would like something exciting to happen, but these boots seem like they might be boring and predictable as to how they go down. 

Actually, given how personal Mike takes thing, maybe Hai/Omar/Romeo vote out Rocks and leave Mike blindsided, then he goes after Hai at the next vote?  As I said, probably not as exciting or complicated as I've envisioning it.

Edited April 23, 2022 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

1 hour ago, Brendan Birch said:

Actually, that could be it.  We saw hints that a guys' alliance was starting, so maybe Hai and Omar go against it by voting Rocksroy out instead, which could set off Mike against Hai the following week.

But yeah, it could just be some pretty basic reason instead.  But some excitement in these boots would be nice, because assuming Maryanne's F3 comes about instead of Lindsay's, I'm wondering how the hell things with the main alliance could be upended enough for that to happen.

Mike might take it more personally coming from Hai since they were on the same tribe together from the start.  Omar might be spared Mike's wrath because of his ties to Jonathan, and Romeo might be considered a non-threat after this vote.  Especially if it's discovered Drea has all those advantages (that has to come back to bite her based on the edit, and she's coming across overconfident enough that she might not think she has to play anything when she's voted off).  I have seen theories that maybe Drea has to play the Do or Die twist (the thing Deshawn played last year) and that takes her out, but I don't think it's impossible to believe she gets voted out with stuff in her pocket.  The person who has spoiled the season thus far says no one falls victim to that twist, but they could be wrong.  I have a feeling whoever got the spoilers was from someone pre-merge, which is why there were so many details to the pre-merge boots, but not so much to the post-merge activity.  Drea's boot is the most interesting to me so far, and I really hope she doesn't go home on a stupid game of chance.  

Then we are at the final 6, which is either Omar/Lindsey/Jonathan/, and a final 3 of Romeo/Mike/MaryAnne, or MaryAnne/Jonathan/Romeo, final 3 Omar/Mike/Lindsey.  

[phlebas]

On 4/22/2022 at 1:40 PM, 128survivor said:

What’s the story with no ponderosa this season ?

 

first time since season 16 

Channelle is the first juror, so maybe she was just too dull to highlight just sitting there by herself.  Maybe once Rocksroy and Tori show up, it will become more interesting.

[ProfCrash]

There are some posts in the Media topic. One says that the person who was supposed to do Ponderosa got COVID. Another references some type of complaint made by someone to HR that involved the Ponderosa crew. Season 41 and 42 were close enough together that it prevented Ponderosa for this season. 

[LadyChatts]

Looking at the sneak peeks I posted in the previews thread, Hai is upset over Romeo voting for him (seriously, what is it with people thinking they are so above everyone to not have their name written down, especially by someone who is a secondary target and is being lied to about it?)  Anyway, if Mike/Rocks/Hai/Omar/Romeo are on a tribe together, there goes my theory that Hai/Omar band together with Romeo to vote Rocks out.  I have a hard time believing that, and an even harder time thinking Mike will vote out Rocks over Romeo unless Rocks totally blows his game.  He did say in the second clip about the guys alliance that he's worried he's next, which I thought was interesting.  So if the vote is on Romeo, I'm wondering if he does in fact win immunity or successfully plays his shot in the dark.  Jonathan said something in the second clip about the big strong guys being targeted, so that could foreshadow a skinny guy like Romeo winning immunity.  Assuming the boots hold up.

ETA: Since Hai is supposed to be next after Tori/Rocks, we may see how that gets set up this week, since he’s freaking out over his name being written down, and Romeo calls him out in a confessional for lying and instigating stuff.  
 

Since I’m curious about what leds to Drea’s boot, I saw something in the episode thread about whether or not Mike’s idol is good, what if Drea steals it and it turns out to be worthless.  And what if Drea played it for herself only to find that out.  Would she be allowed to be play her other idol if Jeff tells her that one was no good?  Somehow I see a scenario where Drea knows she’s being voted for and makes some grand display on TV that she’s saving herself with Mike’s idol-only to be told it doesn’t have any power.  Kind of like when Stephen got blindsided after stealing Joe’s vote at TC and using that vote to vote for Joe.

Edited April 26, 2022 by LadyChatts

[phlebas]

18 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Looking at the sneak peeks I posted in the previews thread, Hai is upset over Romeo voting for him (seriously, what is it with people thinking they are so above everyone to not have their name written down, especially by someone who is a secondary target and is being lied to about it?)  Anyway, if Mike/Rocks/Hai/Omar/Romeo are on a tribe together, there goes my theory that Hai/Omar band together with Romeo to vote Rocks out.  I have a hard time believing that, and an even harder time thinking Mike will vote out Rocks over Romeo unless Rocks totally blows his game.  He did say in the second clip about the guys alliance that he's worried he's next, which I thought was interesting.  So if the vote is on Romeo, I'm wondering if he does in fact win immunity or successfully plays his shot in the dark.  Jonathan said something in the second clip about the big strong guys being targeted, so that could foreshadow a skinny guy like Romeo winning immunity.  Assuming the boots hold up.

ETA: Since Hai is supposed to be next after Tori/Rocks, we may see how that gets set up this week, since he’s freaking out over his name being written down, and Romeo calls him out in a confessional for lying and instigating stuff.  
 

Since I’m curious about what leds to Drea’s boot, I saw something in the episode thread about whether or not Mike’s idol is good, what if Drea steals it and it turns out to be worthless.  And what if Drea played it for herself only to find that out.  Would she be allowed to be play her other idol if Jeff tells her that one was no good?  Somehow I see a scenario where Drea knows she’s being voted for and makes some grand display on TV that she’s saving herself with Mike’s idol-only to be told it doesn’t have any power.  Kind of like when Stephen got blindsided after stealing Joe’s vote at TC and using that vote to vote for Joe.

That sounds like fun.  But it makes me long for the days of the f***ing stick and other fake idols.

[ProfCrash]

And that is how Maryann wins. Damn. 

[DEL901]

Just now, ProfCrash said:

And that is how Maryann wins. Damn. 

That’s what I came here to say.  Wow.  She has a real underlying strength of character.  

[ProfCrash]

Drea was pretty impressive as well but Maryann was able to actually explain what it was about in a way that really reached people. She showed that there is a depth there that many of us didn’t see before. 

 

[Lady Calypso]

1 minute ago, Brendan Birch said:

Assuming it's her F3 and not Lindsay's.  Wow.  That was deep from her tonight.

The Lindsay spoiler was actually someone trying to divert people away from the Maryanne spoiler, I believe. It came a couple of weeks after the season started and the spoiler person for Maryanne predicted some very, very specific things.

Yeah, I think, even if Jonathan got to F3, he wasn't winning. 

 

[ProfCrash]

Just now, Lady Calypso said:

The Lindsay spoiler was actually someone trying to divert people away from the Maryanne spoiler, I believe. It came a couple of weeks after the season started and the spoiler person for Maryanne predicted some very, very specific things.

Yeah, I think, even if Jonathan got to F3, he wasn't winning. 

 

I don’t think Jonathon is an ass but he just needs to not talk. Lindsey was so right about that vote and Jonathon was just not able to see it. Never mind the comments at tribal. There is a time to defensive and there is a time to listen. He needed to listen. 

[LadyChatts]

I think MaryAnne had good jury management with Tori.  Drea and Jonathan weren't cruel, but MaryAnne at least did the 'I really don't want to vote you out but I don't have a choice.'

Lindsey was the other rumored winner, but I don't see it.  I thought maybe her breakthrough was clueing Jonathan in on how a MaryAnne vote from Drea could backfire if Drea played her idol, but I just don't see how she is getting a winner's edit.

After tonight I'm believing the final 3 of MaryAnne, Mike, and Romeo.  We're seeing how Romeo isn't respected in the game and is doing things that may come back to bite him.  Mike is going to blow it at FTC. 

There were rumors that Hai rallied everyone at Ponderosa to vote for MaryAnne because she was a black female, but I have no idea if that's true, and there are two minority men in the final 3 with her if it is Mike and Romeo (and Romeo is also gay so that would be considered marginalized as well).  Though Hai might leave bitter and just be on the 'anyone but Mike and Romeo' train.  I do think that MaryAnne likely wins on her own merit and not just to prove some point over having her win against two men.

Edited April 28, 2022 by LadyChatts

[DEL901]

Yeah, Jonathan has just become a decent goat which might explain how he gets to final 4.  He wouldn’t get any votes from either his former orange teammates or the contestants he tried to race-splain to.  

[LadyChatts]

I'll post this in the preview thread as well, but for next week, we see Mike telling Jonathan about Hai lying to him.  I'm wondering what that is about?  The Rocks vote, because Hai actually clued him in to that (unless Mike lies to Jonathan about it, which might further explain how Mike loses down in the end).  I do think we are seeing how Hai gets set up next week.  Drea I'm even more confused about now, and I wonder if she boot is actually switched with someone else's.  Unless she just overstratgizes her way out of the game.

[LadyChatts]

3 hours ago, Brendan Birch said:

And based on his final words, I think that Rocksroy might be a surefire vote for Maryanne is she's in that F3.

Mike is rumored to only get one vote, and at this point it will probably be Jonathan.  

Quote

For Hai . . . I think we'll have to see next week.  But Drea . . . maybe it's an idol play from Mike (if his idol is valid, after all) or someone's Shot in the Dark succeeds.  Or maybe Lindsay just arranges it so she can have her amulet be equivalent to an idol.  Since Hai will already be gone by then, why not take out the other amulet-holder?

I think Hai might just get overconfident.  My feeling is he sees himself running this game more than he really is.  Could also be an idol play from Mike or shot in the dark, but Mike seems super confident in his standing.  We'll see if that holds true next week.

One thing I thought about, is maybe Drea uses her KIP next week on Mike, and then the following week she is blindsided because people saw her as too powerful.  Regardless of what went down tonight, I don't know that this is going to rally people to Drea and MaryAnne's sides.  I won't be surprised if people still stick with their allies.  At this point Drea may be running out of them.

[ProfCrash]

I think Hai and Mike are playing emotionally and are very open about it. Romeo clearly has his feels but he is saying it in confessional and then talking to people about Hai by pointing out his behavior. 

Hai thinks he is in a better place then he is, because of his connection with Omar and Jonathon. I suspect that the Rocksroy vote costs Hai the trust of Mike and Jonathon. I suspect that Hai takes the brunt of the vote because of how he plays, more out there and more vocal about his feelings, then Omar. Omar can find a way to spin it so it is less damaging, but I think it still hurts Omar with Jonathon. 

[Lady Calypso]

Well, at least now we know that it's probable that Jonathan is the only Mike vote. I don't see Jonathan voting for Maryanne, not after last night. I thought maybe he would because of Taku and maybe he'd respect her gameplay, but I guess he really is all in on his bro and he really seems to dislike Maryanne or think she's beneath him. Despite having protected her a couple of times, he's said it was because of her idol and extra vote, so I think he'd have no reason to keep her without those things (and now all she has is an extra vote).

[DEL901]

Remember when Philip got a single vote at FTC?   The winner was clearly known. The voter wanted to decide 2nd place, rather than have the two losers tie. 

[peachmangosteen]

51 minutes ago, DEL901 said:

Remember when Philip got a single vote at FTC?   The winner was clearly known. The voter wanted to decide 2nd place, rather than have the two losers tie. 

I don't remember that but I remember Reid giving Jacklyn a vote to ensure Missy and her didn't tie. He was so bitter; it was hilarious lol.

[LadyChatts]

Looking at the ousted castaway's word associations, I see how Hai probably gets the boot next week.  People make him sound like he's some shady salesman or something.  I'll stick with my theory that he thinks he's in charge and gets blindsided.  And Mike clearly throws him under the bus for something.  

Omar is an interesting one.  If Omar was the winner of the Omar/Mike/Lindsey rumored final 3, I'd almost believe he could do it.  I just don't see Lindsey's path.  Rocksroy mentioned in one of his exit interviews that he threw that vote to Lindsey during the Lydia boot because he wanted to bring attention to the fact that Lindsey was playing a good game, and no one seemed to notice.  I thought that was interesting.  But wasn't Erika at least getting attention at this point last season?  I still think MaryAnne has it.

[ProfCrash]

I am listening to Rob has a Pod Cast today and Stephen just made a good point. Mike is the smaller target in all of his alliances and sub alliances. Hai and Jonathon are Mike's closest allies and both are bigger targets than Mike. Toss in Mike's less strategic reasons for voting people off and I can see him 1) making it to the final tribal 2) getting no votes or a vote from Jonathon. 

I am more curious how Maryann makes it to the final tribal. I wonder if Jonathon is really the person at the bottom of the Orange alliance because of his lack of strategic play and his unwillingness to listen to Lyndsey. I can see Lyndsey and Omar working with Maryann because she is more flexible and strategic and seen as less of a challenge threat. 

Omar probably gets caught with all of his scheming. I can see Maryann being flexible about who she works with so she moves around a good amount. I can see Maryann and Lyndsey working together. I can also see people viewing Mike, Romeo, and Jonathon as goats. 

Mike has two shields in Jonathon and Hai. Mike's emotional style of play makes people see him as a goat so he gets through.

Romeo entered the merge with few allies, really no allies. He has done a lot of scrambling and is playing a more chaotic game. That is normally not appreciated. I can see him as a goat.

Jonathon has been a provider and impressive in challenges pre merge. We have not seen quite the same skill in challenges post merge. He finished second two episodes ago and won this episode but that challenge lasted under 5 minutes. The seas were rough, most everyone was done by the 2 minute mark. He had a good away to balance but I am not sure with calmer water that he outlasts others, especially as the steps get smaller. Even with his challenge wins, current and potential, his strategic game has been a fail and I am not so sure that his social game has been all that great after the merge. I think his performance at tonight's tribal does not help him. So I can see him having very real goat traits. 

The order now is supposed to be Hai, Drea, Omar, Lyndsey, Jonathon. 

Hai makes sense, I am guessing Mike is pissed that Hai switched to vote from Romeo to Rocksroy. No idea why Mike voted with Hai on that, I bet that costs him a vote from Rocksroy at Final Tribal because Rocksroy is that straight shooter dude who would see violating an alliance as a big no-no. I bet that Hai gets more of the blowback from that vote initially then Omar but I suspect that the Rocksroy vote trips everyone up. Hai also is playing emotionally and being really vocal about it, I bet that bites him in the butt.

Drea has two known advantages right now. That makes her a target. If she uses her knowledge is power advantage and steals Mike's idol, she is going to show that she has even more power and is hiding things. All good reasons for targeting her. 

Omar has been outed as playing lots of sides already, the Rocksroy vote is going to stick with him. Romeo and Mike seem to be great goats and Omar has a really good chance of winning if he gets to the end. Keep the person with the better chance of winning or the people who you don't think has a shot at winning. And I think Jonathon is closer to Lyndsey then Omar and that they all feel burned by the Rocksroy vote. 

Lyndsey similar reasons to Omar. She is potentially closer to Jonathon so he votes Omar before Lyndsey. 

Jonathon out at fire. 

 

[phlebas]

18 hours ago, DEL901 said:

Remember when Philip got a single vote at FTC?   The winner was clearly known. The voter wanted to decide 2nd place, rather than have the two losers tie. 

RIP Ralph.  Good times.  Phile thanks you for your vote.

 

[grandmabegum]

6 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

Jonathon out at fire. 

Is there any indication who he loses to at fire?

[LadyChatts]

In the alternate final 6, Romeo is the fire making loser (also to Mike).  Yet I really don't feel his edit has showed that.  He's coming across like someone who isn't going to be respected as a final 3 goat.  I have a feeling Hai will think Romeo has his back next week, since Hai was painted as saving Romeo this week.  Chanelle said in one of her exit interviews that Hai and Mike played the game emotionally, so she wasn't prepared for that.

ETA:

Quote

Hai makes sense, I am guessing Mike is pissed that Hai switched to vote from Romeo to Rocksroy. No idea why Mike voted with Hai on that, I bet that costs him a vote from Rocksroy at Final Tribal because Rocksroy is that straight shooter dude who would see violating an alliance as a big no-no. I bet that Hai gets more of the blowback from that vote initially then Omar but I suspect that the Rocksroy vote trips everyone up. Hai also is playing emotionally and being really vocal about it, I bet that bites him in the butt.

I've been back and forth as to whether Rocks would actually vote for Mike.  However, in his exit interview with ET Canada he said he wished Mike had given him a heads up about the boot, and thought they had that understanding.  Yet Mike didn't, and also voted for him.  But Hai wanted to stay on good terms with Mike by clueing him in that the vote was changing.  So when Hai is voted off, this could turn Rocks against Mike even more if he knew that he was aware the vote was coming, and that Hai actually told him for the sake of staying on good terms with him.

Also, I saw an interesting theory at Reddit regarding Drea.  The person who has spoiled everything thus far said it was Lindsey who got the KIP advantage, and played it correctly.  But it was Drea who got it, and who knows whether or not she will play it (though I do think she will and that could be her downfall).  The poster said that maybe Lindsey and Drea's boots were mixed up in the order.  That instead of Lindsey going 5th it was actually Drea, and Lindsey maybe gets idoled out or something in 7th.  Probably a long shot guess, as she's tight with Jonathan and Omar, and Drea may have just run out of luck by that point.  I am curious, though.

Edited April 30, 2022 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

2 hours ago, Brendan Birch said:

Okay, now, that would be interesting.  If anything, it'd make sense, because I don't see how the hell Drea would let herself go out the door with all of her advantages in her pocket.  After this last episode, I realize that she seems way too smart and perceptive to get too comfortable.  Maybe she does sense that she's in trouble again and plays one of her advantages.  And it would explain why we haven't seen much of Lindsay's game, because of how hers ends.  Usually, the idoled-out players don't get much screentime, after all.

This is probably more exciting than I'm making it out to be, but I could see a scenario where this happens.  Assuming Hai goes next, at the final 7 we will have Jonathan/Omar/Lindsey/MaryAnne (all Takus), Drea, Romeo, and Mike.  Mike is tight with Jonathan, and all of the Takus are close, but MaryAnne is on the bottom and knows it.  They keep making a big deal out of MaryAnne's idol and extra vote, and I feel like that is going somewhere (though it didn't really with her idol, so maybe I'm wrong about this).  But anyway, let's argue that MaryAnne, Drea, and Romeo realize that they are on the bottom of the other group.  Romeo could use the information Omar gave him about the men's alliance to the two girls.  And whose to say that Drea and MaryAnne are in on the Hai vote-maybe they get blindsided, and realize even more that they are not part of the main group anymore.

Mike and Jonathan have made a big deal about saying they are targets because they are strong men.  Lindsey doesn't seem like someone anyone would be targeting.  Rocks purposely said that he threw a vote her way to get attention because he thought she was playing a good game and no one was noticing.  And Lindsey has had these random scenes, like agreeing with Jonathan that both of them were targets for being strong, but we haven't seen that.  Drea said she was going to start playing a different game.  If her and MaryAnne use their extra votes at the final 7, as along as Romeo votes with them they would have a majority (5-4).  I feel like MaryAnne is being edited to take down Taku, so this might be her chance.  

Edited April 30, 2022 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

7 minutes ago, Brendan Birch said:

If this scenario (or something similar or close to it) were to happen, I could see this being the feather in Maryanne's cap for her win, assuming that Omar and Lindsay aren't too bitter about it.  (Jonathan is probably the sole Mike vote, so obviously, he would be.)

I can definitely see Drea getting too confident and getting voted off, thinking that no one would dare touch her knowing she might play an advantage.  However, knowing she was just on the chopping block I would hope she'd be a little more cautious.  Tori said in her exit interview that Lindsey told Drea it was her going home had she not played her idol.  So this big alliance Drea was part of is falling apart.  Rocks is gone, and Drea was next.  

MaryAnne made the comment last week that she didn't like Jonathan bossing her around like she was a little kid and that she wasn't a sheep.  That's why I wonder if she's the one who gets the big move.  I still don't see how Lindsey would win, but she's been the only other rumored winner.  Romeo, Mike, and Jonathan are definitely out.  Omar is really the only other one I could see having a chance, but I suppose if Lindsey has a big breakthrough the next episode maybe she'd still be in it.  I just feel like they are cutting it close with her edit.  Plus, production was supposedly very happy with how this season turned out, and I feel like that helps MaryAnne's case as well.  

[MsTree]

8 hours ago, Brendan Birch said:

I feel like Maryanne would definitely be a new and different type of winner even for this show, so that might be why they were so happy.  I mean, you saw her basic "character" type across the seasons, but the role she usually fills doesn't win.  She might be the first time that particular type of player wins this game.

So she should win because she's overly animated?