Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[sharky]

24 minutes ago, Mathius said:

I definitely think the ending was the biggest contributor, as there was an uproar on just about every website tracking OUAT over it since it flat-out ruined the entire episode, it made the pretty enjoyable hour you had been having watching it entirely meaningless.  It was a new low for TS, TW.

The sad thing is I don't really know if you're referring to the ending last week or this week. But those are two endings from different writers, same creators. You would think that if ABC wanted to have ratings maintain themselves enough to renew Once that they would've at least had a tighter grasp on their show notes to A&E.

(and then I reread. "Pretty enjoyable hour" was definitely not this week.)

Edited March 20, 2017 by sharky
reading comprehension

[Mathius]

2 minutes ago, sharky said:

The sad thing is I don't really know if you're referring to the ending last week or this week.

Last week.  No episode's ending has an effect on the ratings of that episode, it reflects in the ratings of the following one.

Quote

Though rounded it did do the numbers of the other 2 ABC dramas combined...so as repeated before, ABC dramas doing so terribly makes the terrible performance of this show look good comparatively.

But at this point, that also reflects bad on OUAT as a lead-in.  ABC is more likely to scrap all dramas than keep OUAT around.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Mathius

[Tiger]

24 minutes ago, Souris said:

Here are the un-rounded 18-49 prelims for Sunday, March 19:

Once Upon a Time ................. 0.759 ... (0.789 ... 0.728)

So it rounded up to a 0.8, but not by much. And a big in-ep drop, not surprisingly.

Does anyone know what the series low in the demo is?  

[Curio]

6 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Does anyone know what the series low in the demo is?  

Isn't this the series low?

[Souris]

9 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Does anyone know what the series low in the demo is?  

0.8 is the series low in demos, but I don't know how the unrounded numbers shake out on that. I'd be surprised if this isn't it, though.

[Tiger]

I honestly dont see how ABC can do another 8 weeks of this hot mess schedule.  NBC's is almost as bad.  

And as bad as Once has become, it's still amazing compared to the shittiness of Time After Time, Chicago Justice, and Shades of Blue.  I have each of them 20 minutes of my time and all three are so horrific that I would give anything for some memory tea to forget them.

[Mathius]

Yes, this is the new series low.  It hadn't gone to 0.8 before now.

[Souris]

TVLine has a Cut/Keep poll up for Once.

[Camera One]

From that article:

So unless the plan is to stage some “reunion tours” for, like, Frozen‘s Elsa, or to bring to the fore heretofore peripheral characters such as Merida

Merida?!  Merida????!!!!!!  Okay, that author needs to go stand in the corner for 28 years.

[KingOfHearts]

Quote

Okay, that author needs to go stand in the corner for 28 years.

They're pretty brave to say that, am I right?

[Free]

10 minutes ago, Camera One said:

From that article:

 

 

Merida?!  Merida????!!!!!!  Okay, that author needs to go stand in the corner for 28 years.

As if she could bring the ratings up after last season.

[Curio]

I have to side eye a lot of Mitovich's OUAT articles. He has some biases and doesn't pay as close attention to the show as much as he claims he does. Also, since when does a character getting married automatically mean that their story is "played out"? Just because Emma seems to have found a happy ending by finding her son, parents, and potential future husband doesn't mean her story is finished. Why can't we have a fun adventure series where Emma and her family sail off to other realms to solve fairy tale mysteries each week? If you want a total reboot, that's your simple solution. Less angst, more fun, more viewers.

[KingOfHearts]

Quote

Also, since when does a character getting married automatically mean that their story is "played out"?

When you're Snow or Charming.

[Free]

2 minutes ago, Curio said:

I have to side eye a lot of Mitovich's OUAT articles. He has some biases and doesn't pay as close attention to the show as much as he claims he does. Also, since when does a character getting married automatically mean that their story is "played out"? Just because Emma seems to have found a happy ending by finding her son, parents, and potential future husband doesn't mean her story is finished. Why can't we have a fun adventure series where Emma and her family sail off to other realms to solve fairy tale mysteries each week? If you want a total reboot, that's your simple solution. Less angst, more fun, more viewers.

Yeah, I'm not expecting that, the writers think that's boring and prefer to write their boring stories instead.

[Curio]

I'm still mad A&E wasted the whole Wish Realm concept on two episodes that ended up being meaningless. That concept alone could have carried an entire final season. Dungey wanted a reboot with a limited cast, so showing what the Enchanted Forest would have looked like had Emma grown up a princess would have been a proper reboot without drastically changing the core DNA of the show. It also could have justified getting rid of regular cast members for more organic plot reasons. 

[KingOfHearts]

Quote

It also could have justified getting rid of regular cast members for more organic plot reasons. 

Getting rid of Belle, Zelena, Snow, and Charming would have been easy.

[oncebluethrone]

16 minutes ago, Curio said:

Why can't we have a fun adventure series where Emma and her family sail off to other realms to solve fairy tale mysteries each week? If you want a total reboot, that's your simple solution. Less angst, more fun, more viewers.

I would watch the hell out of this.

[Curio]

7 minutes ago, oncebluethrone said:

I would watch the hell out of this.

I have a feeling a lot of people would. It's basically stealing the standard TV formula that has allowed other long-running shows, like Supernatural, stay on the air for over a decade. With Supernatural, they stole from the X-Files and do a blend of procedural monster-of-the-week episodes with serialized Big Story arcs. So instead of riding around America hunting monsters in a '67 Chevy, Emma & Co. would sail around the enchanted realms on the Jolly Roger mixing fairy-tale-of-the-week procedural episodes with serialized Big Story arcs. Best part? No flashbacks! It seems like a no-brainer. 

[CCTC]

29 minutes ago, Curio said:

Why can't we have a fun adventure series where Emma and her family sail off to other realms to solve fairy tale mysteries each week? If you want a total reboot, that's your simple solution. Less angst, more fun, more viewers.

That could have been really doable this year if they would have mined the untold stories for more than 1.5 episodes,  and also dropped the need to have every episode be tied to some flashback of one of the regular characters, just have everything take place in the present.  The flashbacks can really chop up the episode and often prevent enough time to really tell the story of the week.

Edited March 20, 2017 by CCTC

[sharky]

Keep/cut is 53/43 right now. Why do 4 percent of people both to vote Don't care/Don't watch?

[Souris]

I would watch the hell out of Captain Swan sailing around solving mysteries and helping fairy-tale characters a la Hart-to-Hart or Nick and Nora Charles. But, alas, we can't have nice things.

[Mathius]

19 minutes ago, CCTC said:

That could have been really doable this year if they would have mined the untold stories for more than 1.5 episode

That's what I was thinking.  The LOUS was a perfect opportunity to renew the show in this way, and the writers blew it spectacularly. 

[AshhyOut]

I have a feeling the so-called reboot is meant for Freeform if there really is one and they already know who's staying or going. With PLL ending, a Hook and Regina led Once reboot could easily fill in the void there. I just don't see how a reboot Once makes any sort of sense on ABC. S7 Once is guaranteed a rating of 0.6 maximum if they're at a 0.7 now, factoring in yearly declines. Dump half the cast? 0.6 is probably generous.

It's just illogical at this point. They can't keep it at Sundays 8pm because it can't help launch anything so it's handicapping the next 2 hours.  Move it to 9 and you'd need to find something compatible before and after and again you're handicapping that 10pm hour. Move it to 10 and you might as well just cancel it with its young skewing demo. I actually think Once is lucky to have AFHV as a lead in.

Yes it's expensive to launch new shows and yes there's a chance all of them will get 0.4s like this season's crop but S7 Once is guaranteed that next season anyway. New shows have at least a remote chance of being a "hit" or at least acceptable. There's absolutely zero chance of Once being revived in any way that will get them above what they're getting right now. 

[cappoe]

Every media outlet knows that in order for s7 to be a success it must include JMO.

Anyways I don't think S7 is happening anymore cause now ABC can justify a reason to cancel it.

Low ratings and now it being equal with Quantico. And we all know the hard on ABC has for that horrible show.

[Souris]

6 minutes ago, cappoe said:

Low ratings and now it being equal with Quantico. And we all know the hard on ABC has for that horrible show.

Quantico ratings look positive on the surface with the rise to 0.8, but it was basically short carryover from DWTS. Its half-hour breakdown was 0.9/0.6, with total viewership going from 4.35 million at 10 to 2.94 million at 10:30. That is a brutal in-ep drop!

[Tiger]

36 minutes ago, Souris said:

Quantico ratings look positive on the surface with the rise to 0.8, but it was basically short carryover from DWTS. Its half-hour breakdown was 0.9/0.6, with total viewership going from 4.35 million at 10 to 2.94 million at 10:30. That is a brutal in-ep drop!

I think ABC is in an extremely difficult position with Quantico.  Its U.S. ratings are horrific, but ABC Studios is making a killing in international sales revenues and its international ratings are excellent.   And Disney really wants to be in business with Chopra.  That said, even if ABC were to drag it through another two seasons to get to 88 episodes, I highly doubt it will land a domestic off-network or syndication deal.  

That Shield landed an off-network deal after three seasons/66 episodes is huge as dramas are having an extremely hard time landing off-network and syndication deals now.  NBC's Chicago Fire was taken out to market this time last year and still hasnt had any interest despite it being essentially a procedural.  

And what ironic is that its procedural/generic CBS dramas that really caused this.  Networks and syndicators paid huge sums for Hawaii 5-O, Mentalist, Person of Interest, Elementary, NCIS LA, and Good Wife in recent years and all bombed in off-network and syndication.  

All of that said, I am a bit surprised that Once didnt get anything, even from an in-house Disney-owned network.  At the very least the first season and a half was really good and the episodes were fairly standalone provided you knew the series' general premise.

[cappoe]

1 hour ago, Souris said:

Quantico ratings look positive on the surface with the rise to 0.8, but it was basically short carryover from DWTS. Its half-hour breakdown was 0.9/0.6, with total viewership going from 4.35 million at 10 to 2.94 million at 10:30. That is a brutal in-ep drop!

Oh I know. The only reason it got those ratings was the lead in but the fact that people dropped the show that much in the half hour. It's a dud walking.

However it doesn't have the complications of contract issues the way OUAT has.

[Free]

1 hour ago, Souris said:

Quantico ratings look positive on the surface with the rise to 0.8, but it was basically short carryover from DWTS. Its half-hour breakdown was 0.9/0.6, with total viewership going from 4.35 million at 10 to 2.94 million at 10:30. That is a brutal in-ep drop!

It's practically the same as its post Bachelor episode, only they needed to do heavy promotions for it yet again.

[TheGreenKnight]

2 hours ago, cappoe said:

Oh I know. The only reason it got those ratings was the lead in but the fact that people dropped the show that much in the half hour. It's a dud walking.

However it doesn't have the complications of contract issues the way OUAT has.

I have to be honest, I checked out the episode on Monday just because Marcia Cross was prominently advertised and no other reason.

[AshhyOut]

What is interesting is that if you look at the Live+7 numbers, Once, Quantico and AOS are pretty much even with one another. So more people are DVR'ing Quantico and AOS, while not many bother to even record Once any longer. Now I know that doesn't matter because it's not C3 or C7 numbers which is what brings in the money. But if you assume the same percentage of people don't fast forward commercials across all 3 shows, that the higher total DVR viewing in Quantico and AOS might be enough to close the gap with Once or make the difference much smaller.

At the very least I think that the declining DVR numbers on top of the live numbers don't bode well for Once or a reboot, which is really just a soap opera. Soap viewers are hard-core loyal but once they break that habit, it's impossible to get them back. And it looks like more and more are breaking the Once habit. The audience isn't changing how they watch Once, they're just not watching at all. Dumping some of the cast would be that final push for some to finally take it off completely. Is the money they're saving with a cheaper cast going to make up for lower ratings?

I still say their best bet would be to move it to Freeform or maybe they can sell it off to CW or another cable channel like Nashville/CMT. But I don't know how that selling thing works.

Spoiler

I think the fact that A&E seems to be making the 2 new characters a large part of the finale instead of a just a tease, makes it look like they're pretty confident about some sort of renewal. Or it could be they really are unaware arrogant folks that don't care for a "proper" series finale in case things went south.

[Mathius]

5 minutes ago, AshhyOut said:

What is interesting is that if you look at the Live+7 numbers, Once, Quantico and AOS are pretty much even with one another.

The live audience numbers are in the same 2 million range as well.  Things don't bode well for any of them.

[sharky]

41 minutes ago, AshhyOut said:

I still say their best bet would be to move it to Freeform or maybe they can sell it off to CW or another cable channel like Nashville/CMT. But I don't know how that selling thing works.

The issue is Once is owned wholely by ABC so they won't sell to CW or a non-Disney network. Their only real option is Freeform.

Here are a few tweets from Adam that give me pause...

Quote

 

this is why you can't guess based on travel. We'll be shooting some of 617, 618,619,620,621,622 over the next 2-3 weeks.

not reshooting. This is normal scheduling. It's happened like this every season

 

Does that sound like normal scheduling every season? Maybe there's a guest star they're going to have in a bit here or there that was available this week only so they're doing all those scenes at once? I don't know. It sounds to me like they have a clearer picture of what's going on with the show and are adjusting accordingly.

On the other hand, Designated Survivor is the only freshman drama that's moving on from this season. Yikes. I feel like Once is now at a point where their fate is in someone else's hands. It's like a team trying to make it into the playoffs but needing to rely on another team's win or loss to get them in. If ABC has a good crop of pilots, Once may be done for. But if ABC had a bunch more crap like Imaginary Mary and Downward Dog, Once can get a spot on the schedule.

[Free]

27 minutes ago, sharky said:

But if ABC had a bunch more crap like Imaginary Mary and Downward Dog, Once can get a spot on the schedule.

I think 1 of them is moved to the Summer so that wouldn't count because it would be after Upfronts.

[sharky]

Oh, I'm not necessarily saying those in particular. I mean, if ABC has more pilots like that in development, then I would assume they would choose Once over that crap. I still have no idea how those got green lights.

[Rumsy4]

3 hours ago, AshhyOut said:

Or it could be they really are unaware arrogant folks that don't care for a "proper" series finale in case things went south.

This is my reading of A&E. 

[Mathius]

Personally, I suspect they've been told the show is not getting renewed, and they're now making the necessary adjustments. 

There's a OUAT convention in Vancouver this weekend, I would not be surprised if the end of the show is announced there.

Edited March 22, 2017 by Mathius

[Tiger]

Hearing Time After Time MAY get pulled as early as this week "with Once shifting to 9 for its final episodes and Fresh/blackish repeats sloting in at 8".

Edited March 22, 2017 by Tiger

[Curio]

5 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Hearing Time After Time MAY get pulled as early as this week "with Once shifting to 9 for its final episodes and Fresh/blackish repeats sloting in at 8".

Why would OUAT shift out of the spot it's been in for the past six years? If they were to pull the plug on Time After Time, wouldn't they fill that spot with reruns instead? 

[Tiger]

17 minutes ago, Curio said:

Why would OUAT shift out of the spot it's been in for the past six years? If they were to pull the plug on Time After Time, wouldn't they fill that spot with reruns instead? 

I guess the thinking is that it allows them to test comedies out of AFV, doesnt waste new programming against Little Big Shots, and gives American Crime a "stronger" lead.

Who knows though.  The network has been talking about testing or outright moving Blackish to Tuesdays all season, and theyre finally doing it this and next week but with repeats.

[sharky]

They wouldn't move Once for the last six episodes just to test comedy repeats in that spot. It would make a trying situation worse. They've been on Sundays at 8 for six seasons. They're not moving it to burn off six episodes.

Time After Time isn't getting renewed. The problem is American Crime's ratings are worse. So pulling is a very temporary fix considering Once is a star compared to the rest of their Sunday line up. 

[Free]

25 minutes ago, sharky said:

They wouldn't move Once for the last six episodes just to test comedy repeats in that spot. It would make a trying situation worse. They've been on Sundays at 8 for six seasons. They're not moving it to burn off six episodes.

Time After Time isn't getting renewed. The problem is American Crime's ratings are worse. So pulling is a very temporary fix considering Once is a star compared to the rest of their Sunday line up. 

If they're pulling TAT, they would most likely double up on AC since that only has 6 episodes left.

[AshhyOut]

8 hours ago, Mathius said:

The live audience numbers are in the same 2 million range as well.  Things don't bode well for any of them.

Oh yeah for sure. I think Quantico looks the worse now because there's nothing else they can do there to improve ratings. Moving it behind Bachelor and DWTS was the best they could do and it didn't work. Nothing else is going to revive it now. To be fair, it is really hard for new viewers to pick up a serialized drama which is why they tried a "reboot" and billing it as less serialized, but it was already too late.

As for the pilots, I think the new Marc Cherry one and Libby & Malcolm are sure bets. To me, the comedy pilots look stronger than the dramas. At least they got quite a few TV veterans on their comedy pilots so that's something. On the drama side, it's interesting that they're billing a good number of them as "dramadies."

[Eolivet]

12 hours ago, sharky said:

Once is a star compared to the rest of their Sunday line up. 

I wouldn't call getting Ds a "star" when the rest of the night gets "F"s (and AFV gets about a B-). The Evil Queen of Crap Mountain still lives on Crap Mountain.

That being said, if OuaT is coming back, I can absolutely see them shifting it to 9 for these last 6 episodes. It's not staying at 8 next year, there's just no way. I'd be slightly more surprised if it's getting cancelled and they move it to 9. That's a big slap in the face to a veteran drama (but then again, maybe ABC feels it hasn't earned any respect to be kept in a spot where it's no longer capable of anchoring the night if it's not coming back).

[Souris]

Some are taking this tweet by Colin's agent that he's reupped for S7 and the show has been renewed. If I'm remembering correctly, he's also Sean's agent who pretty much spoiled Sean leaving last season.

Somebody said he writes the same thing every beginning of the season, but he's a bit late on it if so!

Edited March 22, 2017 by Souris

[Curio]

5 minutes ago, Souris said:

Some are taking this tweet by Colin's agent that he's reupped for S7 and the show has been renewed. If I'm remembering correctly, he's also Sean's agent who pretty much spoiled Sean leaving last season.

I think you're right about the Sean thing from last year. But I would just take this as Colin having a contract locked down if there is a Season 7, which we kind of already knew. If the show is cancelled he has to look for another job, but if it's renewed, he's locked in for another year.

Also, I find it amusing that the agent used the hashtag #captainswan. Maybe that's a good sign that Morrison has signed on for another year?

[BoPeeps]

Just a random thought, but IF a revamp is in the cards would moving the show to 9 give them more leeway to detach from the Family hour PG/Disney barriers and offer more adult scripting? I've always felt the show was severely hampered by having to straddle the family hour PGish limitations. "Juvenile" oriented restrictions don't gel well with the creative potential of twisted fairy tales that much of the fandom craves with these characters.

Not that this creative team could actually handle that scenario but a scheduling change to a later hour could change the whole dynamic.

(Question of the year: Is a revamp of this writing team even plausible if ABC would risk going in with a more adult theme with certain, retained characters? It would definitely be a direction a network hasn't tried.  There has been so much damage done already by the lack of continuity, depth and character support in the writing that it may be a lost cause)

[sharky]

I think it's too late to revamp the writing team. If they wanted a change, they should've replaced A&E at the end of season 4 with the horrific ratings drop after Frozen. At this point, it would be a waste since at most you're only doing one more season.

But wow, could you imagine this show's ratings now if A&E had their hands off it for the past two seasons?

[BoPeeps]

Intelligent adult themes don't always have to mean gore (or over the top sexuality-it still isn't Cable). But the adult themes they DO introduce or even tip-toe around get routinely buried under PG vanilla powdered sugar pablum, in part, because of the Family Hour limitations (or even parental outrage.) They are reduced to very poorly handled, buried stories or ignored follow-up scripting that frustrates the less PG aged/minded fans.

So, none of the edgier/intellectually more mature themes that COULD affect ratings in a positive way with the highly touted 18-49 crowd get any focus. They are trying to play on two very distinct playgrounds in different neighborhoods and failing both groups.

(Again, the wild assumption here is that this particular writing team could improve with a new scheduled time slot and more mature character support.)

Just one woman's opinion but if ABC had some...guts... they could give that rumored schedule change/revamp a try and see where it would lead in the ratings. The premise of this show is STILL loaded with amazing potential.

The point now is probably very moot.

[Shanna Marie]

Is the Family Hour even a thing anymore? I thought it was long gone. There's been some pretty raunchy stuff in the early timeslot. Not to mention, this show has had a woman ripping out a man's heart to force him to obey her and ordering him to her bedchamber, multiple heart rippings, multiple people being run through with swords, dismemberment, adultery, etc. About the only thing they're missing is sex scenes, and there I'm not sure they're being held back. They just probably think that's boring because it's not about the plot. I don't think the show would change at all in a different timeslot. It's immature and shallow because the showrunners are immature and shallow, not because of any kind of content restrictions.

[Free]

15 minutes ago, Shanna Marie said:

Is the Family Hour even a thing anymore? I thought it was long gone. There's been some pretty raunchy stuff in the early timeslot. Not to mention, this show has had a woman ripping out a man's heart to force him to obey her and ordering him to her bedchamber, multiple heart rippings, multiple people being run through with swords, dismemberment, adultery, etc. About the only thing they're missing is sex scenes, and there I'm not sure they're being held back. They just probably think that's boring because it's not about the plot. I don't think the show would change at all in a different timeslot. It's immature and shallow because the showrunners are immature and shallow, not because of any kind of content restrictions.

Probably, whatever family audience they had, left after Frozen.  Nowadays, they're just struggling at maintaining their remaining audience thanks to the writers.