Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

[Shanna Marie]

It seems ABC is really trying to push Blood and Oil. I watch the local news on the ABC affiliate, and the only show I see promos for, over and over again, is Blood and Oil. Never Once, never Quantico. I guess they're going down fighting to give it a shot.

[Mathius]

For those who have doubts about Season 6:

2016 Renewal Scorecard: What's Coming Back? What's Getting Cancelled? What's on the Bubble?

TVLine is no more a certain source than any other. Until proven otherwise, I still think it's more of a 50/50 thing, dependent on multiple factors.

[Serena]

TVLine actually has lots of inside info. They get lots of scoop, both from creators and network.

[sharky]

That list is interesting. Wasn't Secrets and Lies a success in the 9pm Sunday slot? It's a midseason show, but I wonder if they would bring it back early to cancel Blood and Oil.

[jjjmoss]

The show's still getting above-average ratings and is in the top half of ABC's lineup. I see no reason at this point why it would go away this season.

[Serena]

1.6 demo this week

[Mathius]

The demo numbers hold steady from last week, although the actual audience numbers have hit a new low (did the reveal of Arthur as the villain turn a lot of people off?)

[Curio]

Ouch. I didn't think we'd dip under 5 million this early in the season. I'm not sure how much "Arthur as the villain" turned people away. I'd bank on it being more about an episode that gave 90% of its screen time to new players. Yes, we've seen Lancelot before, but he's been gone so long and used so little that he might as well be a new character for the general audience. It's hard to stay invested in an episode when all the flashbacks are given to characters you don't necessarily care about.

Edited October 19, 2015 by Curio

[scenicbyway]

The demo numbers hold steady from last week, although the actual audience numbers have hit a new low (did the reveal of Arthur as the villain turn a lot of people off?)

The episode really focused on the Camelot characters too, that might have turned off some viewers...

[Mathius]

But that's the thing: there was actually barely any Camelot character screentime except for Arthur, who ended up being outed as a villain.  If the choice to villainize him was unpopular, I cannot imagine what the reaction will be to what he pulled in this week's episode (the promo of which that aired at the end of 5x03 was all about "King Arthur is eeeevil!")

Edited October 19, 2015 by Mathius

[sharky]

It's not great, but did we expect anything less? The show is in season 5 already and the past four weeks have been pretty steady, which is more than what most shows are dealing with at this point. Plus, Once and Quantico were the best scripted shows of the night against lots of football. (CBS has almost an hour of overrun.) It's not as good as it used to be, but this is probably going to be the new normal and that's not a bad thing. It's a known commodity for ABC that they can trust to bring in the same numbers every week.

[mtsmvfn]

It's not great, but did we expect anything less? The show is in season 5 already and the past four weeks have been pretty steady, which is more than what most shows are dealing with at this point. Plus, Once and Quantico were the best scripted shows of the night against lots of football. (CBS has almost an hour of overrun.) It's not as good as it used to be, but this is probably going to be the new normal and that's not a bad thing. It's a known commodity for ABC that they can trust to bring in the same numbers every week.

Also baseball, two of the teams that are in the play-offs are Chicago and New York  major markets. I was watching Once on my laptop and the baseball game on tv. I re-watched Once when the game ended.

[Hookian]

Once continues to remain steady as can be and on a network like ABC where they're really struggling that's great news.

 

Pay no mind to the total viewers, networks don't give a damn about them. It's all about the demo, total viewers is irrelevant.

 

The only time total viewers become relevant is when shows bomb in the demo ratings that network PR tries to spin it by saying "such and such million people" are watching. It doesn't mean anything.

Edited October 19, 2015 by Hookian

[mtsmvfn]

Once continues to remain steady as can be and on a network like ABC where they're really struggling that's great news.

 

Pay no mind to the total viewers, networks don't give a damn about them. It's all about the demo, total viewers is irrelevant.

 

The only time total viewers become relevant is when shows bomb in the demo ratings that network PR tries to spin it by saying "such and such million people" are watching. It doesn't mean anything.

Quantico, Once and the Simpsons tied for top scripted series in the demos... going against sports.

[jjjmoss]

Well...mostly true, but at least based on the prelim #s Once is actually down another 2% in the demo if you go beyond just looking at the nearest tenth of a point.

 

Of course, it could adjust up and be even/up.

Edited October 19, 2015 by jjjmoss

[TwistedandBored]

I stopped caring about OUAT ratings the same time I stopped caring about making sense of this shows storylines/timelines. Now, I just look at my DVR to see if the episode is there or not and watched it when it there. 

[HoodlumSheep]

Glad that at least the demo number is staying decently steady. Still think they should go full out when promoting 5b when the time comes, because they obviously didn't use much of their budget promoting 5a.

[Souris]

For a bit of a giggle, TV Grim Reaper not putting up with a SQ fan trying to lecture him about ratings.

[retrograde]

I don't usually get into the fandom dramas or wars (dickheads in al camps, if you ask me), but this did genuinely make me laugh:

 

@TVGrimReaper You're just looking for reasons C$ wouldn't be screwing the show over (which it is). Go back to your delusions.

I am positive that guy does not watch -- and possibly never has watched -- Once.

[Hookian]

For a bit of a giggle, TV Grim Reaper not putting up with a SQ fan trying to lecture him about ratings.

 The SQ fan is a moron and has no idea what the hell she's talking about. Grim Reaper aka Bill doesn't even watch the show and he has his own website yet she thinks he's a CS fan trying to assure us. LMAO but what do you expect from that fandom of morons. Just twisting facts and having no idea what he hell they're talking about, what else is new.

Edited October 20, 2015 by Hookian

[Mathius]

Glad that at least the demo number is staying decently steady. Still think they should go full out when promoting 5b when the time comes, because they obviously didn't use much of their budget promoting 5a.

Right, I forgot to add that whether evil Arthur drove the actual amount of viewers down or not, the demo number stayed the same and that's the one that actually matters, so right now the show is in no trouble, and won't be until it hits 1.0 and lower.

Also, you just need to look at ratings in the past and there is literally NO evidence that CS is a factor that lowers ratings, if anything it boosts them (4x04, advertised as the CS date episode, had a live audience boost from 4x03, for example, and the Hook-centric 4x15 had a demo boost from 4x14.) So that SQer is absolutely full of shit.

Edited October 20, 2015 by Mathius

[sharky]

I just love how condescending she is to him. "That's the demo sweetie. That's steady. But the total viewers went down EVERY WEEK. Learn more about ratings." I just... I mean... I just can't. There's a reason that people stereotype SQ fans as acting overly entitled. I mean, we have our discussions here about viewers vs. demo and dig into the numbers and play ratings excuse bingo, but even a basic fan can get a general grasp on ratings. At least that's what I thought. Apparently I was wrong. :P

[Selina K]

Taking response to Fandom thread.

[RadioGirl27]

Live+7 DVR Ratings - Week 2 (28th Sept - 4th Oct 2015)

Live +7 Ratings have come in for the second episode of OUaT’s season 5, ‘The Price’. Initially grabbing a 1.8, and rising to 2.7 for Live +3, the show has been adjusted all the way up to a 3.0 which is a 1.2 point/67% raise from it’s initial rating. For the millions of viewers side of things, the episode initially grabbed 5,379.0 millions and increased to 8,049.0 millions.

Edited October 20, 2015 by RadioGirl27

[HoodlumSheep]

^ that's good! That was a bigger increase than the first episode, I think.

[Mari]

Maybe good word of mouth pushed it up? I know the things I sporadically watch, I'll watch only if I heard it was a good episode.

[HoodlumSheep]

I follow Rotten Tomatoes on twitter, and season 5 is at 100% on the Tomato Meter for now (I know it's not that important). The audience score is at 83% as of now. I laugh looking at what the other seasons were rated. Season 4 was definitely rotten due to 4b. I can't understand how season 2 has a better score than season 1 though. The back half was a mess.

Edited October 20, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[Mathius]

The S2 score is because there are very few reviews for it, and every review it has is positive ones for the season premiere. If it actually updated with further reviews, it would be lower.

Edited October 20, 2015 by Mathius

[HoodlumSheep]

^ that explains it. At least the Tomato people seem to like season 5 (I agree with them).

[jjjmoss]

The finals are in - Once went down only 1% in the demo from the previous episode.

 

Still a 1.6 rounded to the nearest tenth either way, but still. 

A 1.55 is often counted the same as, say, a 1.649, but they're not actually the same.

Edited October 20, 2015 by jjjmoss

[Hookian]

Here are somethings that need to be said going forward about ratings.

 

1. The Nielsen system is outdated and not accurate anymore but networks still use them. However, they are now starting to take in Hulu and ABC website views when it comes to renewals because there are still ads being watched and that's where the money comes in. +3 numbers are taken into account when it comes to ratings/renewal rates.

 

2. In order to actually count in the demo you must have a Neilsen box in your home and be a US citizen. If you live outside the USA you can watch or not watch to your hearts content you don't count when it comes to the show. Something lots of SQ shippers need to realize seeing as most SQ shippers live overseas.

 

3. Renewal is measured by the network not the opponents. You're competing against the rest of the shows on the network which in Once's case is a great thing seeing as it's one of the top performers in the network still AND ABC is doing very bad across the board this season and cannot seem to find a hit within their new shows.

 

4. Total viewers is irrelevant. The only network that actually brings those into account is CBS. That's because most nursing homes in the USA are tuned in to always have CBS turned on.  That's why they have always have so many views but a very poor demo. Their 18-49 demo is horrible, so they've got to flash a positive wherever they can.

[LizaD]

 

The only network that actually brings those into account is CBS. Their 18-49 demo is horrible, so they've got to flash a positive wherever they can.

 

This is not strictly true. CBS ratings guarantees are done against the 25-54 demo, not 18-49.

[sharky]

Looks like ABC has cut Blood and Oil to 10 episodes. That will get it to Once's winter break and save it immediate cancellation but I would assume the network will replace it in that 9pm slot this spring.

[Souris]

Once was steady from last week but lost a significant amount of viewers in-ep.

 

8:00 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time
Viewers: 5.24 million (#4), A18-49: 1.6/ 5 (#2)
CBS –Madam Secretary
Viewers: 11.24 million (#2), A18-49: 1.4/ 4 (#3)

NBC – Football Night in America, Part 3
Viewers: 15.46 million (#1), A18-49: 5.4/16 (#1)
Fox – The Simpsons
Viewers: 6.65 million (#4), A18-49: 2.7/ 8 (#2)

———-
8:30 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time
Viewers: 4.84 million (#3), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#3)
CBS –Madam Secretary
Viewers: 10.56 million (#2), A18-49: 1.2/ 3 (#4)

NBC – Football Night in America, Part 3
Viewers: 20.48 million (#1), A18-49: 7.2/20 (#1)

Fox – Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Viewers: 4.27 million (#4), A18-49: 2.0/ 5 (#2)

 

TV Grim Reaper:

#OUAT ratings (1.6) steady and in no danger at that level. Ignore the panicked, and the anti-fans, listen to the reaper.

Edited October 26, 2015 by Souris

[orza]

Everyone changed channels to catch the end of the football game. That's not surprising.

[HoodlumSheep]

Also, it was kind of a dull episode. At least the demo number seems to be steady.

Edited October 26, 2015 by HoodlumSheep

[Souris]

There was no football game ending from 8:30 to 9. There's always a football game STARTING at 8:30, so that's a constant. (My Panthers are now 6-0 baby! :) But this is the biggest in-ep drop so far this season. TBH, my Panthers are not generally a big draw nationally, so I think viewers got bored with this ep.

 

5x01: Steady at 5.88M each half hour

5x02: Went up, 5.27M to 5.39M

5x03: 5.34M to 5.09M, so a drop, but less than half as big

5x04: 4.81M total viewers each half hour

5x05: 0.4M drop, from 5.24M to 4.84M

[jjjmoss]

The prelim Once half-hours in the demo: 1.64, 1.53.

 

Quantico was more than a full tenth of a point behind.

[Hookian]

Great for Once, back to the number one broadcast drama of the night.

[Souris]

The prelim Once half-hours in the demo: 1.64, 1.53.

 

Quantico was more than a full tenth of a point behind.

 

Where do you get the demo half-hour breakdown?

[jjjmoss]

Spotted Ratings.

[Aliasscape]

And yet you look at this and realize in its 5TH season Once is doing so much better than a LOT of younger shows.

[retrograde]

Wow I thought Quantico would be more of a juggernaut for ABC, but not so much (I think it's dumb, but it's the kind of dumb thing I thought people liked, and somehow I'm still watching, which is unusual for a show like that). The network really has a lot of duds this season. Which is ultimately good for Once, I guess, but I'd also love for there to be more good shows on TV. Eventually we'll need a replacement show to obsess over.

[jjjmoss]

It's a bit sad when you look at the estimated sample size that determines whether shows are cancelled, less than 1% of 1% of the population.

 

That rating Once got only means that about 341 people 18-49 watched it. I know they're supposed to be "highly representative of the American demographics," but still.

Looking at IMDB, about 90 actors have appeared in at least 3 episodes of the show. That's more than a quarter of the people whose viewing habits keep this as a successful show.

[jhlipton]

One other thing to consider: If two shows have similar ratings, but one is owned by the network that shows it, that will make it much cheaper to produce and will go a long way if ratings sag.

[orza]

It's a bit sad when you look at the estimated sample size that determines whether shows are cancelled, less than 1% of 1% of the population.

 

That rating Once got only means that about 341 people 18-49 watched it. I know they're supposed to be "highly representative of the American demographics," but still.

Looking at IMDB, about 90 actors have appeared in at least 3 episodes of the show. That's more than a quarter of the people whose viewing habits keep this as a successful show.

There's nothing sad about it That's just how the math works. Some people may argue that Nielsen is outdated but you can't argue with their methodology. It is sound. Years and years of alternate studies and surveys support the veracity of Nielsen data. If anything, Nielsen data has become more accurate with advances in technology such as DVRs and streaming video.

Edited October 27, 2015 by orza

[retrograde]

One other thing to consider: If two shows have similar ratings, but one is owned by the network that shows it, that will make it much cheaper to produce and will go a long way if ratings sag.

True, though ABC does make most of its current shows in-house, and most of its un-owned shows (Blackish, the Middle, Modern Family, Goldbergs) are substantially out-rating Once. Still, I don't think it's much of a concern this season -- it is holding fairly steady, while Blood and Oil, Castle, and Nashville are tanking. I gave up on Blood and Oil after one episode (sorry, Scott Michael Foster; I hope you find something better in the future), but both Castle and Nashville are so tired and devoid of good new ideas, they make Once seem fresh and full of possibilities.

Edited October 28, 2015 by retrograde

[retrograde]

Looks like ABC has cut Blood and Oil to 10 episodes. That will get it to Once's winter break and save it immediate cancellation but I would assume the network will replace it in that 9pm slot this spring.

Interesting article on this at E! Apparently none of the networks are canceling anything this season --  they're just reducing the episode orders so they don't look bad.

[sharky]

Ah yes, the whole "This was always intended as a limited series," excuse. Because none of us know what that really means. ;)

[jjjmoss]

There's speculation that after a show is Officially Cancelled, then a show gets significantly less money from advertisers for the ratings it brings in.

So I guess it's smart in a way, not announcing cancellation until after all the eps have aired.

 

Plus there are people who upon hearing a show has been cancelled are like "oh it's gonna be over? I better not start/keep watching this" then, which lowers the ratings for the last coupla episodes.