Australian Survivor - General Discussion

[BK1978]

6 hours ago, Nozycat said:

I wonder why Mo is so bad at challenges, I thought she was an athlete.

Sad Brooke is gone, would have liked to see her at the end with David.  Hoping for a David win now - which is something I never thought I would say after last season, but like him this one.

No word of a lie, I was thinking the exact same thing about Mo a few days ago.  She really seemed to be struggling in the final four challenge, which surprised me a bit because I thought a challenge like that would have been perfect for her.  I wonder if her energy is just sapped from lack of food, water, sleep, or whatever.

I have wanted David to win for the vast majority of the season, so part of me liked seeing Brooke go.  But I really like Brooke, as she and Lee were my two favorites from the first season.  I will say this, she had one hell of a season and she is a fantastic player.  I mean the way she sold herself and the benefits to keeping her would have given me pause if I were in Sharn or Mo's position.

Out of the three I would want David, then Sharn, and then Mo to win.  I think Sharn played a good game but I have a strong feeling the jury will not respect her.  Mo might have a hard time selling her game, but as I say that, Brooke seemed to understand what Mo has done so maybe the jury is not completely in the dark as to the moves she made.

[TVbitch]

Brooke really did her best at the last tribal to save herself. I would have been shocked if either Sharn or Mo bought into it though, cuz, come on, the jury is mostly made up of her friends and ousted alliance members who have been falling all over themselves with glee every time she had the immunity necklace on! I think she deserves to play again, but this time she did not play hard enough early on strategically. 

Wow, David has emotions. LOL It was good to see, and he better win. Sharn has made so many enemies on the jury. And for no reason! Mo really hasn't done that much. She is more of a legend in her own mind with her invisible game. I am also surprised that she has not been good at challenges this whole season. She doesn't seem especially warm or friendly either. I don't know why the jury would pick her over Dave.

I really wish they had a final three, cuz I would love to hear all of their arguments for why they should win. And a final two means Dave will be out if either of the girls win the next challenge. I do not like that the winner of the final challenge basically decides the final two. Didn't like it in US survivor and I do not like it here. 

Why are they making us wait a week for the finale! Ugh! 

 

[BK1978]

Shonee seems like she might be a bitter jury member.   Gone is her giddy personality and she now seems to have a scowl on her face at all times.  They showed her a couple of times giving everyone death glares.

I want to bring this up in my last post, I wonder why by in large the women dominate Australian Survivor and the men seem to dominate American Survivor.  I am talking overall there have been far more men who have won US Survivor and there have been three women who have won Australian Survivor.  The Aussie seasons also tend to be run by the women.  Is it a cultural thing?  Does Australian Survivor tend to cast stronger women (Not just in physical strength, but overall.  Meaning women who are more leaders than followers.) instead of just going for the pretty girls.  It is just very interesting to me.

 

[ReallyRealReality]

11 hours ago, BK1978 said:

Shonee seems like she might be a bitter jury member.   Gone is her giddy personality and she now seems to have a scowl on her face at all times.  They showed her a couple of times giving everyone death glares.

I want to bring this up in my last post, I wonder why by in large the women dominate Australian Survivor and the men seem to dominate American Survivor.  I am talking overall there have been far more men who have won US Survivor and there have been three women who have won Australian Survivor.  The Aussie seasons also tend to be run by the women.  Is it a cultural thing?  Does Australian Survivor tend to cast stronger women (Not just in physical strength, but overall.  Meaning women who are more leaders than followers.) instead of just going for the pretty girls.  It is just very interesting to me.

 

I believe it is a cultural thing.  Aussies work to live, not live to work.  They spend much more time with their families and therefore are more respectful of others naturally, be they men or women, young or old, any race, etc.  

Americans live to work and are ruthless to get whatever they want.  Kids are raised with no discipline or respect for anyone.  Many women are still battling to break through the glass ceiling and be shown they are just as capable (in many cases more-so) then men.  There are still many, for instance Mormons, that think women must be subservient to men.  This is 2020 and the House keeps having to fight for the equal rights amendment for women (namely abortion - a bunch of men should not get to rule what a woman does with HER body.  IMO, if that's the way they want to rule, fine... every rapist gets his d*** cut off... NO EXCEPTIONS)!!!!

I digress... sorry.  If you listen to the 'sob stories' in both versions, Aussies are all about their families and how they are doing it for them, American's are all about how they've been ostracized by their family because they 'came out'.   Blah, blah, blah... wah, wah, wah.  Just get on with the show already...

Dave's gotta win!   😄

[elizacat]

On 3/25/2020 at 3:32 PM, TVbitch said:

Brooke really did her best at the last tribal to save herself. I would have been shocked if either Sharn or Mo bought into it though, cuz, come on, the jury is mostly made up of her friends and ousted alliance members who have been falling all over themselves with glee every time she had the immunity necklace on! I think she deserves to play again, but this time she did not play hard enough early on strategically. 

Wow, David has emotions. LOL It was good to see, and he better win. Sharn has made so many enemies on the jury. And for no reason! Mo really hasn't done that much. She is more of a legend in her own mind with her invisible game. I am also surprised that she has not been good at challenges this whole season. She doesn't seem especially warm or friendly either. I don't know why the jury would pick her over Dave.

I really wish they had a final three, cuz I would love to hear all of their arguments for why they should win. And a final two means Dave will be out if either of the girls win the next challenge. I do not like that the winner of the final challenge basically decides the final two. Didn't like it in US survivor and I do not like it here. 

Why are they making us wait a week for the finale! Ugh! 

 

What frustrated me about Brookes pitch that no one brought up was she would have a stacked jury! I think the only person who stood a chance against Brooke with that jury is Dave. Mo or Sharn would have been essentially handed Brooke the win if they kept her!

I hope Dave wins if not would prefer Mo over Sharn, didn't like her in her first season and haven't liked her this season.

[elizacat]

Dave has to win final immunity its his only chance really either of the girls would be crazy to take him to final 2.

[Eolivet]

That was so odd to watch, mainly because I kept screaming "social distancing! Social distancing!!! Too many people in a room!!!" No way will they do that for the U.S. Survivor finale.

My favorite argument was "the winner All Stars deserves." That would've sealed it for me.

Excellent season.

[TVbitch]

YAZ!!!! 

Dave smashed this entire season. No one else came close. He nuked it. But it stayed exciting cuz I didn't think he would actually make it to the end.  Out wit, out play, out last --indeed.

Sharn knew she was toast shortly into final tribal. And she lied about the whole "testing Tarzan" thing. Like you would need to test Tarzan's loyalty?! She really could not sell that. The look on her face. Even at the reunion. She was still defeated. I wonder who was the one vote for her?  

[BK1978]

1 hour ago, TVbitch said:

YAZ!!!! 

Dave smashed this entire season. No one else came close. He nuked it. But it stayed exciting cuz I didn't think he would actually make it to the end.  Out wit, out play, out last --indeed.

Sharn knew she was toast shortly into final tribal. And she lied about the whole "testing Tarzan" thing. Like you would need to test Tarzan's loyalty?! She really could not sell that. The look on her face. Even at the reunion. She was still defeated. I wonder who was the one vote for her?  

Moana was her sole vote or at least according to the Survivor Wiki website. 

Glad to see Dave win, he did play the best game and it was cool to see the jury was not bitter.  I thought it funny at the Reunion show his daughters seemed to be happy and his two sons did not seem like they wanted to be there at all.

Speaking of Reunion Show, have they ever done a Reunion Show in the past?  If so I never saw one.  I have to say Michelle, Shonee, Flick, Brooke and Phoebee (sp?) all clean up pretty nicely. 

To tell everyone how bad my memory of this show is, I did not remember Mo and Sharn being allies their first season.  I remember Mo and Matt as allies, but it was not until the weekend when I was on the Survivor Wiki site that I saw they were allies. 

[Nozycat]

Very happy with this outcome which I never thought I would have said after last season.  Sharn tanked again.

[Eolivet]

Sharn, the Russell Hantz of Australian Survivor.

I honestly think her whole "I'm a lawyer" persona works against her at final tribal -- she comes off like she's lecturing people, and I've rarely seen such a cognitive dissonance between the way someone sees their game in their head versus the way people perceive that game.

I feel like both times, she couldn't get to final tribal without talking out of both sides of her mouth, and once she got there, she dramatically misread her own game. In season three, it was "I was loyal" versus Shane, the most loyal player there was. When it was her "big moves" (like having a sense about the Mat boot, but not warning him) that gained her respect from half the jury, but came off as disingenuous to the other half.

This time, it was her quite frankly bizarre argument about "look how many times I could've switched alliances," which she needed to follow up with "but I couldn't beat you, you were too good" to the people she burned. Which also comes off as disingenuous when you're part of "the tightest alliance in Australian Survivor history."

A tact that might've worked is going after David more, like "hey, I got here without idols and a pretty face." I don't know if she was too arrogant to use Moana's planned "I used David as my shield and was running things the whole time" argument (which I thought was decent). But honestly, any claim of "an aggressive, quiet game" went out the window after her loud, pathetic begging to be taken to F2, all "you promised to take me, you promised, you promised." She needed to correct that last impression the jury had of her, even if she had to lie. Say "I was playing that up so I would look weak. I wanted this face-off, and I knew he was afraid of Moana."

As I watched her, I wondered if she thought she was playing Sandra's Heroes vs Villains game (talking a big game about switching sides, but never actually doing it). The difference was Sharn had people who wanted to get David out. Sandra could lecture at Heroes vs Villains (what I consider one of the greatest arguments in Survivor history) she tried to warn them about Russell, and nobody listened to her. I feel like Sharn's was the diet version of that, like "I could've done it, guys! I didn't, but I could've."

Which is why I consider her game to be more like Russell's and less like two-time F2 loser Amanda. Like Russell, Sharn was playing a different game in her head than everyone else saw, and like Russell, the only time she got a hint of the game she actually played was at final tribal council.

[elizacat]

I'm so glad Dave won, absolutely the best player by a mile. I knew he had it won as soon as he won final immunity. I was shocked Sharn actually thought she had a chance!

She started off ok with her speech but it rapidly went downhill from there.

I thought Dave was great he owned  his game which does tend to go down well with juries.

All in all a perfect end to a really enjoyable season.

Edited March 31, 2020 by elizacat

[TVbitch]

On Mo's Jury Villa, they had her give her "speech" and it was so bad. More of her "invisible game" stuff with her sulking in the shelter where no one would notice her, but she could hear and watch everything. The table was less than impressed. Neither of these ladies stood a chance, and rightly so. 

Mo looked devastated in the reunion. I think she still believes if she could have just gotten to the final, she could have won. Um, no. 

[ReallyRealReality]

3 hours ago, TVbitch said:

On Mo's Jury Villa, they had her give her "speech" and it was so bad. More of her "invisible game" stuff with her sulking in the shelter where no one would notice her, but she could hear and watch everything. The table was less than impressed. Neither of these ladies stood a chance, and rightly so. 

Mo looked devastated in the reunion. I think she still believes if she could have just gotten to the final, she could have won. Um, no. 

She believes that because she had the jury stacked with friends and figured they'd all vote for her the same way she voted for her friend, Sharn.  Guess she found out the hard way that jury members tend to vote on 'game'... they know the public will see it and judge them if they don't.

BTW, Shonee posted on IG that it was Moana that voted for Sharn.

[Nozycat]

8 hours ago, TVbitch said:

On Mo's Jury Villa, they had her give her "speech" and it was so bad. More of her "invisible game" stuff with her sulking in the shelter where no one would notice her, but she could hear and watch everything. The table was less than impressed. Neither of these ladies stood a chance, and rightly so. 

Mo looked devastated in the reunion. I think she still believes if she could have just gotten to the final, she could have won. Um, no. 

Yes I also thought her speech was terrible and she has such a flat affect, there is no conviction there.

[TVbitch]

Yeah, I'm sure Mo is a nice person, but she does not come off as having much personality. Sharn isn't exactly a barrel of fun either. Meanwhile, the jury literally lit up and was enthralled listening to Dave gleefully recount his game. They laughed along with him. 

Hope he gets an acting gig out of this. Or at least some nice modeling work.

[elizacat]

11 hours ago, TVbitch said:

Yeah, I'm sure Mo is a nice person, but she does not come off as having much personality. Sharn isn't exactly a barrel of fun either. Meanwhile, the jury literally lit up and was enthralled listening to Dave gleefully recount his game. They laughed along with him. 

Hope he gets an acting gig out of this. Or at least some nice modeling work.

Dave mentioned on the exit interview on RHAP about potentially going on US survivor - would love to see this!

[TVbitch]

2 hours ago, elizacat said:

Dave mentioned on the exit interview on RHAP

What is that and where do I find it?

Would love to see Dave on US Survivor, but I don't see how any other players would let him stick around very long. They should do a season with players from around the world.  

[ReallyRealReality]

6 hours ago, TVbitch said:

What is that and where do I find it?

Would love to see Dave on US Survivor, but I don't see how any other players would let him stick around very long. They should do a season with players from around the world.  

RHAP is "Rob has a Podcast".  Rob Cesternino is a former American (2-time) Survivor player who has become more famous by covering several reality shows and getting interviews.  He's won several awards for the work he's done.  Give his website a google search and give a listen.

BTW, Australian Survivor is hosted by Shannon Guss, not Rob... he can't possibly cover them all alone.

Here's the interview that was referenced Finale Exit Interviews

[TVbitch]

5 hours ago, ReallyRealReality said:

Here's the interview that was referenced Finale Exit Interviews

Thanks that was pretty interesting. Now I am inclined to listen to the "deep dive" one. 

David is even more impressive listening to that. He was really thinking out every detail and contigency, was dealing with some serious physical hardship, and just had a great understanding of the game in general. 

Oh dear, Sharn really thought she could get some votes (?!) 

Mo STILL cannot really articulate her game. She came across very poorly in that respect in her portion of the interview. And she voted for Sharn cuz they are good friends. How disappointing!

[BK1978]

I was thinking about how it would probably be the Australian version that would have Aussies vs. US.  I just do not think Jeff would be keen on that.  But Australia already had Russell on, why not try to get a tribe of American All-Stars to take on a tribe of Australian All-Stars.

I don't know how many watch the Challenge in this thread but I would love to see Turbo (Who won Survivor Turkey twice) come over and play a season.  That dude is legit nuts.

[TVbitch]

I think Jeff is probably jealous that AU Allstars was such a big hit, and is still the brutal game Survivor used to be, with gruelling challenges, near starvation and only a couple idols in play. Meanwhile US Allstars is a bit cushy, well-fed, and lazy ..and if you aren't careful you will trip over an idol/advantage.

David said as much in that podcast. That he probably wouldn't do AU Survivor again cuz it took such a toll on him, but he would totally do US Survivor, i.e., he's up for a shorter Club Med stay. 😄 

I think US vs The World would be cool. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by TVbitch

[Eolivet]

So, I've seen every Australian Survivor season except the "first" (S3, I guess it is, from 2016), then I found it and started watching and ... O.M.G.

I adored it. So much. Checked all the boxes of a brilliant Survivor season for me: a heroes vs villains vibe, a big alliance imploding on each other, allies stabbing each other in the back and a true triumph of the underdog. I was so into this Mean Girls retelling with the Saanapu alliance. Flick was the most perfect Regina George, with Kristie as Lindsay Lohan's character (Kristie actually played this role twice, once with Phoebe, too).

And the end was amazing. The cinematography (an endurance challenge on a cliff while they were pelted by waves?! EPIC!) And the type of pleading and bargaining you only ever see on Big Brother endurance challenges anymore. Kristie might've been sincere, but boy, did she know how to press Lee's buttons. That was her best move of the season. And her Keyser Soze-esque final tribal council argument about getting rid of them all. "Be yourself, back yourself." I was a fan.

I loved so many of these characters in their pure, OG form, not their watered down versions on All Stars: Nick, Phoebe, Lee, Brooke and Flick. And Kristie was the best Survivor winner of 2016, all seasons, hands down, no contest. She played the type of game we never see anymore: the unaffiliated swing vote, and if she was the teensiest bit threatening, she would've been voted out much earlier. It was a great strategy, and it worked for her.

I was burned out on Survivor after the underwhelming S40 and the excruciating S39. All Stars was great, but became semi-predictable. A well-cast, hard fought season with great characters was a balm to my soul. Maybe it was the season I needed at the time, but it is my favorite Australian Survivor season. No casting gimmicks, no "celebrities," just a good, old-fashioned triumph of the underdog story.

The best Survivor season of 2016 in all forms. Be yourself, back yourself indeed.

(I miss this show, maybe even more than the OG version, and hope it returns soon!)

Edited November 11, 2020 by Eolivet

[TVbitch]

Is anyone else watching David Genat on Australian Celebrity Apprentice? I can't resist. His tribal mastery is coming in handy in the boardroom. They've brought Lord Sugar over from the UK to preside. It's pretty classic apprentice thus far, and I'm enjoying it!

[Eolivet]

And Janine from David's original season is an adviser, right? This is perfect to tide me over until Australian Survivor comes back.

[TVbitch]

Yes! I knew she looked familiar, but it took me a while to realize that!

I kinda don't feel the surfer dude kid deserved to be offed first episode. I'm sure he was fodder, but that was really the PM's fault after Dave offered up his modeling services and a those of a star photographer friend! 

[TVbitch]

David is being almost too David in this show. Yes, it's a game, but you don't tell Janine you are totally gaming it when you know she will tell production. Lord Sugar is not having it and I hope he doesn't get himself offed. He's a smart guy and could be contributing a lot more. 

[TVbitch]

Ugh, well I tried to warn him! 

Does anyone know if/when Survivor AU will be back? 

[Eolivet]

Looks like Survivor: Brains vs Brawn (so hopefully shades of Cagayan and not Kaoh Rong). And they filmed closer to home, which makes sense. I never understood why they went to another island.

https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/reality-tv/australian-survivor/the-first-look-at-survivor-brains-v-brawn-has-finally-landed/news-story/ad9efb1f6b29e33ec9a9495ca566cf50

I found this while trying to find the Celebrity Apprentice ep where David presumably gets booted, so I can prepare myself.

[TVbitch]

Thanks @Eolivet! It says it is "coming soon." I hope not too soon, cuz Survivor South Africa is airing right now and I would like to finish that before AU starts. Watching two at one time gets me all discombobulated! 

If you need help finding the Celebrity Apprentice episodes, let me know and I'll send you a link!

[Eolivet]

I remain dumbfounded that the fact Janine played Survivor with David wasn't seen as a massive conflict of interest on Celebrity Apprentice. Didn't she send him home there, too ("godmother" and all that)?

Curious that the other advisor "wasn't feeling well" so David could confide in Janine, and shortly thereafter, everyone turned on David.

But this is nothing compared to the backstabbing fun of Australian Survivor! So psyched for next season.

[Fake Jan Brady]

Season 6: Brains vs Brawn

Fun start, with somebody already wildly overplaying. Interesting twist with half the tribe being spared Tribal, but George leaving Phil to be fed to the wolves wasn't going to solve his Mitch problem; should've left the alphas to devour one of their own.

The result couldn't be more 'Strayan though: can't vote off the Asian woman, better vote off the non-binary POC. [eyeroll]

Edited July 19, 2021 by Fake Jan Brady

[BK1978]

I honestly did not know this came back last night.  I just happened to find out when I was looking for the name of the dude who won Edge of Extinction.  I am so happy ,  I love me some Aussie Survivor.  I just have to see if the site I used to watch it on is still posting it.

[BK1978]

I saw the first two episodes tonight.  That is a lie, I did not see the first episode's Tribal Council because nobody posted it on the site that I went on.

I have to say while those contestant intros are well produced all of them make the contestants come across like assholes. Phil was the only one who did not come across as an asshole during those intros.

I was shocked when the MMA fighter was not able to win her heat against the smaller blonde haired woman (Sorry I have not learned the majority of the names yet).  I mean given her skill set controlling someone on the ground is part of her job description.

I am not sure if I like Emmet (Sp?) as a villain or hate him for being so damn cocky.

 

[jsm1125]

What is everyone’s thoughts on the season 4?

I think people are playing hard and interestingly, but not necessarily well.

[elizacat]

I’m happy it’s back so far so good.

I agree people are defo playing hard, I guess we will see how that pans out am waiting for a tribe swap.

[BK1978]

As long as George stays, I will be happy.  I just love his story thus far.  He is by far one of the most entertaining contestants that have been on either this version or the American version.  I love the fact that they keep on trying to get him out and he always manages to stay.

Now the last episode I watched was the Joey elimination episode, so I am not sure how many episodes have aired since then.  So George might very well be gone but I hope not.  Oh and I was so glad to see Joey get voted out.  Mostly because it meant George was going to stay but also, Joey's cockiness was really starting to irk me.

Not a fan of Georgia either.  She comes across as a snob to me.

I don't really dislike anyone on the Brawn tribe, well I know a tribe swap is about to happen so I am talking about the original Brawn tribe.  I mean I think Shannon is insanely good looking and Flick is very pretty as well but that is just from an attraction standpoint.

Also, what is it with them casting people with the nickname Flick?  Is that a common nickname for women named Felicity?  Or is it just an Australian thing?

[jsm1125]

What’s with not giving Chelsea and Andrew much airtime?

[LavendarRose]

I have read elsewhere that some of these contestants have either never seen a show or only seen a few.  They believe in their own abilities in real life to be able to win this game with people they don’t know and who don't want them to do well unless it is an advantage to that person.

Setting up alliances is all well and good, but they have to be worked on. Every day, with everyone in the alliance.  Troubleshoot any issues or misgivings. Keep them happy, keep them on side and make sure that each person feels worthwhile.  And keep in touch with the people outside your alliance.  You never know when they may be needed.

It took Boston Rob in the US Survivor what 4, 5 times playing to finally win.  By working his alliance, working the others as well.  He kept in touch, made promises, made “friends”.  He played the game so well, the others forgot they were part of his game.

The current Australian Survivor has no one as savvy as that.  They have all been working on a set and forget mode.  Set up the alliance and expect it to work.  Tonight’s ep was a bit different.  Haylee has done some work to get rid of Simon with his 2 Idols.  She will now have to really amp it up with the merge happening next.  And as for George..........

[jsm1125]

The 14th episode felt like such a waste. I don’t know why this show loves having people lose their vote. And as much as I like Hayley, can we please hear from someone other than her, George, Dani, and Emmett? Stop making over half of the players purple! 

[BK1978]

On 8/16/2021 at 3:51 PM, jsm1125 said:

The 14th episode felt like such a waste. I don’t know why this show loves having people lose their vote. And as much as I like Hayley, can we please hear from someone other than her, George, Dani, and Emmett? Stop making over half of the players purple! 

I was thinking something similar when I was watching the show.  My thought was about Wai and how she was getting a lot of confessionals at the start of the game and now it is like she isn't even part of the show.

Sadly for me the site I watch the show on doesn't always put up full episodes or they may skip an episode completely.  For instance the Baden episode was not put up at all so when I started watching what I thought was the next episode I missed, I was confused by Baden being out of the game.  Obviously I realized that the episode he was voted out in was not posted so yeah I am missing parts of this season and it is making it less enjoyable for me.

 

[WearyTraveler]

4 hours ago, BK1978 said:

I was thinking something similar when I was watching the show.  My thought was about Wai and how she was getting a lot of confessionals at the start of the game and now it is like she isn't even part of the show.

Sadly for me the site I watch the show on doesn't always put up full episodes or they may skip an episode completely.  For instance the Baden episode was not put up at all so when I started watching what I thought was the next episode I missed, I was confused by Baden being out of the game.  Obviously I realized that the episode he was voted out in was not posted so yeah I am missing parts of this season and it is making it less enjoyable for me.

 

Check your PMs 😉

[BK1978]

Right now I think I would only be happy if either Hayley or George won the game.  Maybe Dani as well, but I don't know I have not liked her since the start so while I think she's played a good game.  I really would not be thrilled with her winning.  The rest of the cast just seem to be there.  They are just not doing much or at least not being flashy enough for me.

I had to laugh at Andrew being butt hurt at George's betrayal.  You and your alliance treated this guy like crap at the start of the game.  He kept you in the game through his moves, sure they helped his game as well but still.  Andrew should be happy that George and Cara chose to keep on working with him even though he treated them like outcasts.

Same sort of goes for Emmett as well.  How is Emmett annoyed at George betraying him, when that was what Emmett had planned on doing to George and Cara all along.  I mean shit, he even said he was going to use them to pick off the other Brains and then turn on them. 

[jsm1125]

I'm sure George is lovely and all, but I'm tired of him and seeing him shoved down our throats by the producers. 

[WearyTraveler]

At this point, the only people that deserve to win, IMO, are George and Hayley, both of whom have played really smart games.  If they both end up pitching their games to the jury, it will be a tough and suspenseful decision.  Will the jury forget the many Hayley betrayals?  After all, she has flipped more times than George, who only really flipped alliances after merge when the Brawn were picking off brains one by one.  And that was something the Brawn saw coming because everyone there knew George and Cara were at the bottom of that alliance. 

I think the jury would understand/forgive that before they'd forgive Hayley's many flips and flops.  It's unfortunate for her.  The only time I thought she was making a mistake was when she openly blew up George's spy role.  She didn't need to do that at all.  The Brawn had already figured out that George and/or Cara had to be the ones betraying them. Had she kept quiet and tried to work out a plan with George, they might have pulled off reversing the tide of "Brawn strong" before she was at serious risk.

(To be continued)

[WearyTraveler]

Of the other players left, I don't think any of them has the resume to go against George or Haley.  IMO, Wai is the one with the weakest resume; she hasn't pulled any big moves since parting ways with George way back at the beginning and that was because his game was too chaotic for her tastes, which is not, IMO, a game valid reason.  She obviously likes and excels at the puzzles, but she has not made any noteworthy strategic moves, and she has only been a follower rather than a leader. Andrew and Hayley have pretty much controlled her vote throughout the game, and even George exerted some control when he told her that Andrew was proposing her name and she believed him.

Flick has also been pretty much the same in terms of big moves, more a follower of whoever controlled the Brawn tribe/alliance than a leader proposing strategic moves. She is above Wai because her physical strength could keep her in the competition if the next immunity challenges are a test of strength/endurance. 

Cara hasn't made any big moves on her own, but she has followed George's lead and managed to keep herself in the game.  That said, she did demonstrate enough wit and strategy when she was sent to Brawn on her own and managed to use her social game to outlast other Brawn players in a tribe full of Brawns. Physically, she's not a big threat, but she's not too shabby either. She has held her own in physical challenges and she has never come dead last or given up. Physically, she can certainly beat Wai and George. Then again, anyone can physically outlast Wai and George.

I think George and Haley are smart enough to know that they need to take a less accomplished player through to ensure their win.  Hayley will probably aim to bring Wai with her, and George will aim to bring Cara with him. It doesn't make any sense for either of them to betray their staunchest allies at this point in the game. So, it will now be the battle of George vs. Hayley to win Flick's vote and for the next tribal Council, at least, Flick will have all the power. She also has to play that immunity idol in the next Council or lose it and that gives her even more power. If she uses it wisely, and she manages to win the next immunity challenges, she might be able to get herself to the finale.

For the next tribal council, she can approach the Hayley-Wai duo to take out George first and Cara second, or the George-Cara duo to take out Hayley first and Wai second. Either way she will be at the bottom of the final 3 and will have to rely on winning immunity to get to final 2. If Hayley and George are smart enough, they will use Flick's vote to take out their strongest opponent and then turn on her to end up with two players weaker than Flick in the final 3 (Wai and Cara).

So Hayley-Wai would use Flick to get rid of George, then join with Cara to get rid of Flick. And George-Cara would use Flick to get rid of Hayley, and then join with Wai to blindside Flick. The only way Flick can avoid these outcomes is if she wins immunity for the vote after next's tribal. For the next tribal, she's not in danger, as she will be the swing vote in the George vs. Hayley war. It's unfortunate for her that she has to use the hidden immunity idol next tribal, otherwise, she could have kept it for the following tribal and assured herself the final 3.

Flick has a chance to play some mind games by revealing her idol to any of the duo's that will be asking for her vote in the next tribal and thus build her resume up. But I'm not sure that will be enough to topple George or Hayley's game.

George can be annoying, specially when he waxes poetic about what a great politician (read manipulator, and in George's head, puppet master, most likely) he is, but I can not deny him that he has played an excellent game. His only major blunder, was at the beginning, when he used that advantage without even telling the beneficiaries of it about it, thinking that would make him a hero in their eyes and that he would have an automatic alliance because of it. Instead, they saw right through him and were pissed off at his attempt to manipulate them.  He should have gone to those people first and let them in on the plan, so that they would feel that it was their play too. But George wanted early glory and his plan backfired so fast, and so hard, that he was at the bottom of his tribe until merge.  The only reason they didn't vote him off then was because they thought someone so hated wouldn't get too far, anyway.  He fought really hard to stay in the game with a target on his back most of the time, so, that I respect. But as so many other politicians, he needs to learn to keep his big mouth shut sometimes (ha, ha!)

Finally, there is one more element to consider, and that is the unpredictability of the game itself. It's very likely they will throw an unexpected wrench into the mix to stir things up like they did with the "save" urns, and "the first three to complete the challenge are safe", and so on. There may even be some hidden advantage to be discovered before the next tribal that could help George or Hayley save themselves from the other's sights.

Next week will certainly be very interesting. 

[SG429]

Annoyed with the urn gimmick, and would bet that none of the original 4 had a Save Scroll and all of the 3 at the next TC did.

[WearyTraveler]

17 minutes ago, SG429 said:

Annoyed with the urn gimmick, and would bet that none of the original 4 had a Save Scroll and all of the 3 at the next TC did.

I think game show regulations would prohibit that, but, off course, there's no way to know unless someone associated with the production blabs

[SG429]

49 minutes ago, WearyTraveler said:

I think game show regulations would prohibit that, but, off course, there's no way to know unless someone associated with the production blabs

 I don't necessarily think it was done on the fly - it could (and should) be part of the original game design. Did the design require that someone be saved at this point? Would production chance it on 3 unlucky smashes and no one saved? Or would that whole drama then just be edited out?

[legaleagle53]

And would US game-show regulations even apply to a game show that is played and produced entirely in Australia by Australians?