Big Brother: Over The Top, Week 6 (11/02/2016 - 11/08/2016)

[peachmangosteen]

I'm so disappointed that Shelby bought Jason's bullshit. I thought she was smarter than that. I think it stems from the fact that she actually really likes him (which is another mark against her for me lol) and was initially hoping to align with him.

As of now it seems like Shelby is going to nom Morgan. And I feel fairly sure the AN will be Alex. So, BS is screwed pretty much. Sigh. ETA: Wait, she might be nomming Whitney. But still, I'm like 99% sure the AN will be Alex so it's not looking good for BS.

 I was checking twitter to see if they're still as adamant about nomming Alex (they are) and seriously why are people SO obsessed with ending the sisters twist? Is it because they think it's unfair? It can't be since the same people are huge Jason fans and it's blatantly unfair for him to be cast on this particular season since he has an already built fanbase.

It makes me sad that Alex/Morgan/Shelby still think they can get Whitney while she's telling America that she'll vote Alex out if we nom her. 

Edited November 5, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[J.D.]

I'm dying to know what kind of veto comp this is going to be.  It's definitely an individual comp and so it's going to take forever to play.  My attention span won't be able to take that, so I'll find out who won the following day.

[DAngelus]

36 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

why are people SO obsessed with ending the sisters twist? Is it because they think it's unfair? It can't be since the same people are huge Jason fans and it's blatantly unfair for him to be cast on this particular season since he has an already built fanbase.

You expect them to be consistent?  Bias that helps their faves is good; bias that helps anyone else is bad.  Perfectly sensible "logic" to the Twitterati.

Heck, even our Founding Fathers would agree:

Quote

BENJAMIN FRANKLIN: Why, Mr. Dickinson, I'm surprised at you! You should know that rebellion is always legal in the first person such as "our rebellion". It is only in the third person, "their rebellion", that it is illegal.

—from the musical 1776 (book by Peter Stone)

And despair not, my friends!  Per Jokers:

Quote

Shelby now agrees w/ Morgan and says its gotta be Whitney. Morgan says yes, they have to take the chance that Morg/Alex wont be AN —2.51 PM

And the girls are only worried so much about the AN because they think that Justin is loved by America and that KRYIN KWITTIN KRYSSIE is "loved by America"

I think I speak for everyone here when I say "huh?"

(Buffy to Giles [with Willow/Xander present], Out of Mind, Out of Sight)

I'd think we'd have the edge in the AN voting, because Misfits fans are likely to have some split between Alex and Morgan (there's the argument that it's best to keep Alex from playing for the Veto, for example) whereas Ballsmasher supporters (and a certain segment of the Danielle fans) are fairly united in nomming Kryssie.  But we'll see.

Edited November 5, 2016 by DAngelus

[Katesus7]

Reading on Jokers that Shelby has come to her senses about Jason, which was what I expected in the cold light of day. Honestly, in reading about her breakdown in front of Jason, it would have been hilarious if she had just blurted "I wanted to use this HOH to get rid of you or Justin and now I can't!!" 

[peachmangosteen]

Twitter and ontdbb are wall-to-wall with 'vote Alex.' It's gonna be close. I still think it'll end up being Alex though.

Alex getting nommed is so boring. Kryssie getting nommed would be pure entertainment.

[ByaNose]

16 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

Twitter and ontdbb are wall-to-wall with 'vote Alex.' It's gonna be close. I still think it'll end up being Alex though.

Alex getting nommed is so boring. Kryssie getting nommed would be pure entertainment.

I so want Kryssie nominate just to see her reaction. "Why do they hate me?" If she only knew. LOL!!!

[DAngelus]

Joker's pre-poll for AN:

Kryssie-62%, Alex -31%  (Even bigger margin among the membership.)

Has anyone checked Reddit? I'm assuming they're gearing up big time to vote Kryssie, especially given that Their Boy Scott slammed her so hard in his exit interview.

[Lady Calypso]

2 minutes ago, DAngelus said:

Joker's pre-poll for AN:

Kryssie-62%, Alex -31%  (Even bigger margin among the membership.)

Has anyone checked Reddit? I'm assuming they're gearing up big time to vote Kryssie, especially given that Their Boy Scott slammed her so hard in his exit interview.

Reddit is really wanting Kryssie up but last week has their hopes down a little bit. I do think Kryssie has a very good chance of going up, ESPECIALLY with Jason asking America to split votes between Alex and Morgan. I think a few people will fall for it and vote for Morgan. 

Reddit's kind of only going with Kryssie, though, because Jokers wants Kryssie up and there wasn't enough people to be convinced to put Justin up. Because how awesome of a blindside would it be if Justin was put up? Too awesome, apparently. 

I have hopes for Kryssie going up because Twitter has been trying to put up Morgan for weeks and it hasn't happened. They only took a break last week to go after Scott. 

Edited November 6, 2016 by Lady Calypso

[leocadia]

Justin, Whitney and Kryssie in the kitchen:

Kryssie: " I can't believe I slept that long. (pause) I can't believe BB let me.  Thanks BB."  Way to flaunt that you suck.

Justin:  "I'm so glad I get to eat."  Unlike last week when you had two "parties" and ate candy bars along with whatever else you got past the cameras with no repercussions.

So over these wastes of space.

[DAngelus]

Justin has bragged about taking naps by putting a scarf over his face.  They can't tell if he's napping if they can't see his eyes, you see. (Or rather, can't see.)

And I already know that I'm going to start twitching if I have to hear him say "I already know" for much longer.

[DAngelus]

From Reddit:

"Hello, my people. This is Scott from BB:OTT"

Haven't read the discussion yet, but this part of the OP warms my heart:

Quote

Looks like the rally is to put up Kryssie as America's Nom, nothing would make me happier to see Kryssie put up on Monday so please cast your votes and support the Smashers!!!

You heard the man, folks!  In the words of Captain Picard, "make it so!"

[peachmangosteen]

Honestly, that almost makes me want to not vote for Kryssie.

This is hilarious:

[leocadia]

Shelby/Alex/Whitney/Morgan in London room.  Shelby says she loves Nicholas Cage and Alex calls him  the Nickelback of actors, lol.  Shelby corrects herself to say that she likes him ironically and they all laugh.  There's a pause and then Whitney says, "I like Nickelback" kind of quietly.  They all crack up.  Wish they were all still together!

[Lady Calypso]

It sucks that Whitney, in a span of a week, has gone from totally loyal to the Ballsmashers to actively trying to take them out. 

On another note, our not-so-favourite redhead Rachel Reilly has posted on Twitter to vote for Kryssie. I don't think she's been watching the season, but I presume she's been informed of Kryssie's constant need to complain and quit; although Rachel's all for complaining, she has never been the one to actively quit (well, I mean, she's threatened to quit but she's NEVER actually given up during any comps). We all know that the Brenchel Army can be quite powerful so if they're all still around, there may be a boost in votes for Kryssie as 3rd nom.

I can't believe I'm rooting for the Brenchel Army to jump on board to sign back up for All Access if they haven't already to vote for Kryssie! 

[peachmangosteen]

7 minutes ago, Lady Calypso said:

On another note, our not-so-favourite redhead Rachel Reilly has posted on Twitter to vote for Kryssie.

But the majority of the replies are telling her to vote Alex. And considering she's (inexplicably!) Team LNJ then I figure she'll probably tweet again soon saying she's voting Alex.

If Alex were to be AN and then win veto, who would go? Danielle? 

Edited November 6, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[ByaNose]

I'm voting Kryssie for the sport of it. LOL!! I am curious about the outcome. I really don't know who the voters are. Jokers has been fairly accurate but again I'm not sure who that fan base is. Kryssie was really, really hated when the show started but for some reason it feels different now. The impression I get is that people find her more pathetic and know she can't win. So maybe keeping her in the game & get Danielle out first isn't a bad thing. That said, I have no clue what's going to happen but I can't wait until Monday @ 1:00pm when I'm watching from work. Shhhhhh! Don't tell my boss.

Edited November 6, 2016 by ByaNose

[DAngelus]

2 hours ago, Lady Calypso said:

our not-so-favourite redhead Rachel Reilly

Speak for yourself, milady.  Goddess Rachel is still a goddess.  And I'm choosing to believe her LNJ support is only because she's met Jason at alumni events.  So it amuses me that even among those who are supporting that alliance, Kryssie is still a bridge too fart.

Er, far.  I meant "far".

[DAngelus]

2 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

If Alex were to be AN and then win veto, who would go? Danielle? 

Could be anything from 4-0 to evict Dani (if Justin/Kryssie were serious about their bonding with Whitney in the H-N room this past week) to 2-2 (if J/K stick to their original ally, Danielle) and America making the final call.

This scenario also applies if Shelby wins the Veto and takes down Alex, or if Morgan gets her chip drawn and does the same.

[DAngelus]

1 hour ago, ByaNose said:

Kryssie was reall, really hate when the show started but for some reason it feels different now. The impression I get is that people find her more pathetic and know she can't win. So maybe keep her in the game & get Danielle out first.

There's no chance of Dani being the AN, though; it's either Kryssie or Alex.  So get Kryssie on the block and if she wins the Veto (I know, but imagine) and takes herself down, then Danielle can go.    Otherwise, if we get Danielle/Whitney/Kryssie noms, it's

• Justin (if a Ballsmasher wins Veto and Shelby has the tiebreaker so she can pull off the backdoor) or 

• Kryssie (if one side wins the Veto, but the other has the tiebreaker, so they can use the AV to thwart the backdoor), or 

• Alex (if the LNJ win veto and Jason holds the tiebreaker…even with Morgan/America voting out Kryssie, two misfits and Jason would send her home)

Fairly complex scenario; half the house is in legitimate danger, to varying degrees.

ETA: In case you missed it, the initial "Safety" choices were Morgan (by Shelby) and Kryssie (by Jason).  So far, so obvious.

ETAA:  And actually, now that I think of it, if a Ballsmasher wins Veto and swaps Justin for Whitney on the block, Jason might actually use the tie-breaker to kick Justin out, anyhow, even if Whitney/America were voting out Kryssie to force a tie.  He's closer to Kryssie and he'd be able to say he was getting rid of a bigger threat.  So while an Alex backdoor has more chance of being attempted (because there will be more LNJ in the comp than BS), a Justin backdoor might have a greater chance of success, if we get that far.

ETAYA:  I see the Twitter crowd are doing their "swamp the Joker's pre-poll to discourage voting" tactic again.  It's now a dead heat between Alex and Kryssie.

But Kryssie still leads 63-36 among the members, so it's clear the Joker's membership will be voting her up, attempts at obfuscation aside.  They and Reddit might not have the numbers against the Twits, but they're gonna try.

Edited November 6, 2016 by DAngelus

[Guest]

I haven't read the threads but I searched on a term to find this answer and haven't been able to.  I only watch the Wed. show.  What happened to Jason's neck?  It looked like in DR sessions he had a big laceration on it.  Thanks!  

[Marie80]

8 minutes ago, Winston9-DT3 said:

I haven't read the threads but I searched on a term to find this answer and haven't been able to.  I only watch the Wed. show.  What happened to Jason's neck?  It looked like in DR sessions he had a big laceration on it.  Thanks!  

It was a rub on scar leftover from his Halloween costume haha. 

[J.D.]

Posting just because they're funny.  Wish there were more of them to post.  :D

[ByaNose]

40 minutes ago, J.D. said:

Posting just because they're funny.  Wish there were more of them to post.  :D

What? No mashup of Alex & Morgan? LOL!!!

[missyb]

Heath Luman ‏@HeathLuman  34m34 minutes ago

@AmberStar83 It's one of the most frustrating/difficult challenges of the season. Main skill: balance

0 replies4 retweets14 likes

Should be interesting . Go Ball Smashers. Ruin someones day. 

[silverspoons]

veto is about balance? The HG's that would do well with balance? Morgan,  Danielle, HG's that I'm not sure would do well with balance but could, Jason, Whitney, Alex,  Shelby HG's I don't think will do well, Kryssie and Justin. The veto is most important to Jason and Shelby, and they are the 2 I have no clue as to how they would do at this type of comp.

 

Im thinking more and more that Whitney is not the sweet girl she is playing up. Her boyfriend Winston she said was 11 years older than her and now come to find out he teaches at her high school? and he has a kid(s). It could mean nothing but Winston was 24-28 while she was student, even if nothing happened, I would never be able to date a teacher from my school 2 years after graduating. So she was 19 when she started dating a high school teacher, Maybe it would be different if she was 30 and he was 41 and more than 10 years had passed since she was in high school.  I seen a lot living in a polygamous area but no one dates a high school teacher so far. It seems like Whitney is in the best spot right now to go far. I don't think she has much to worry about during the next 2 if not 3 evictions. I guess we will find out more about her life and love story soon enough.

[DAngelus]

Winston's Facebook.

No age specified, but the good news is that he's a Special Education teacher, so I don't think Whitney was one of his students or anything like that.  And there's a "Tina Hogg" who is an Occupational Therapist at the school; I don't know what relation she is to Whitney, but it seems more as though Winston was one of Tina's staff colleagues and that's how he and Whitney met, not any teacher/student issue.

Still, 30 and 19 is a bit sketchy, I admit.

[ByaNose]

What is with Danielle wanting to drag the girls down the street by their hair & beat the shit out of them? Does she do this on a regular basis in her real life? Is it a hobby of hers? Gawd! I wish they would evict her a** out of the house this week. It's possible, right? Ugh!

[silverspoons]

Danielle many life stories confuses me. She was a good student and track star in high school. She was bullied. She went to college and graduated yet she says she has been in physical fights with women. She works , has free childcare  gets 6k a month in child support but can't afford to live outside of her parents home.

It seems like Danielle could have had the ideal life, good student and athlete, and off to college and career but got deterred, not sure if it was before or after the pregnancy but her stories lead me to believe it was before.. Now she seems to be jealous of Morgan and Alex since they have the life that Danielle could have had and maybe still wants.

[J.D.]

Good grief -- I hope this whole plan fails so that Danielle goes home.  I cannot stand her constant whining and grandstanding.  

Why does Jason got his hand down in his pants?

[DAngelus]

30 minutes ago, J.D. said:

Good grief -- I hope this whole plan fails so that Danielle goes home.  I cannot stand her constant whining and grandstanding.

Unfortunately, I think that Danielle going home requires the AN to come down.  So either Kryssie winning Veto (very unlikely in a balance comp) or Alex being the AN and being saved by any of the BS.  

The good news for Dani's chances of getting evicted is that Shelby doesn't trust Whitney.  If she could count on Whitney to evict Justin over Alex (in a scenario where Alex is AN and Shelby wins Veto), Shelby might take down Whitney to pull off her backdoor, but I hope Shelby knows that she can't risk Alex by trusting Whitney, so in that case she'd just take Alex down and let the Willetts (and probably Justin, who would vote out Dani to keep Whitney) give Danielle the boot.

Still, I think she's only the fourth-likeliest to leave this week, behind Kryssie, Alex, and Justin.  Especially as she's the likeliest to win the Veto, I'm thinking. (Justin or Morgan might give her a run for her money, but there's no guarantee they'll be in the comp.)

39 minutes ago, J.D. said:

Why does Jason got his hand down in his pants?

Checking to make sure it's still there, of course. :)

[zenithwit]

Don't Alex and Morgan have gymnastics backgrounds?  They might have a decent shot at a balance comp.  

[DAngelus]

Oh, Morgan's as agile as you'd expect a cheerleader to be.  It's just that it's only a 2/8 chance she's in the comp (well, 3/8 if Alex is the AN and her name gets pulled), whereas Dani is definitely playing.

Meantime, someone on Twitter was seriously wondering how the house hasn't figured out that the sisters are sisters, already:

Good point, lol.

[J.D.]

That was hilarious!!!

[peachmangosteen]

I can't at BS actually believing the bullshit Jason and Danielle are spewing. They're so dumb right now lol.

[DAngelus]

"Gee, could you vague that up for me?"

What are Jason and Danielle saying, and what leads you to think the BS believe them?

[peachmangosteen]

10 minutes ago, DAngelus said:

What are Jason and Danielle saying, and what leads you to think the BS believe them?

They believe Danielle didn't know she was going up and that she is Jason's target. They all just said it to each other. But honestly I think it's more of a wishful thinking thing with them. They don't really buy it, but not buying it means they're possibly screwed so they're telling themselves it's true. At least I hope so, because otherwise they're all very dense.

ETA: I wish we could go back in time so I could actually vote for Jozea to return and that my votes alone would be enough. Jason is the worst!

Oh wow, it seems like Shelby didn't even tell Whitney beforehand that she was nomming her. What a dumb move.

And now Whitney is crying to Shelby. And now Shelby is crying. LMAO this week is fun. 

Edited November 7, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[peachmangosteen]

My best case scenario for the week would be Kryssie as AN (obviously!) and then Whitney winning veto. I just wanna see if Whitney would actually use the veto on Danielle if she won it. 

[leocadia]

Kryssie/Danielle/Whitney and Justin in the kitchen gloating about how stupid Shelby is for putting up Whitney.  Danielle whispering to Whitney that it was the best case scenario for their side.  She says that when she saw Alex's necklace light up she thought "Those girls aren't even playing."  Justin is so excited he starts breakdancing (spinning on the floor.)  Dani is so sure she is winning the veto and Morgan/Alex will be AN.  I would pay money to see this blow up in their faces.  

ETA:  @peachmangosteen - It would also be interesting if Kryssie wins AN and veto.  I'm pretty sure she would veto Dani and leave herself on the block.  She's that delusional.  Unfortunately, that would only end up in her ouster if America voted her out and Shelby wins the tie-breaker.

Edited November 7, 2016 by leocadia

[peachmangosteen]

2 minutes ago, leocadia said:

Dani is so sure she is winning the veto and Morgan/Alex will be AN.  I would pay money to see this blow up in their faces.  

Right! Kryssie being AN would provide the best feeds. She will break down in the most entertaining way and Jason/Danielle/Justin/Whitney will be so shook. Such fun!

Edited November 7, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[peachmangosteen]

5 minutes ago, leocadia said:

It would also be interesting if Kryssie wins AN and veto.  I'm pretty sure she would veto Dani and leave herself on the block.  She's that delusional. 

Oh good point. That would be fun, too. I really need Kryssie to be AN dammit!

ETA: Voting is open. Everyone get in your 20 votes before midnight!

Edited November 7, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[DAngelus]

4 hours ago, leocadia said:

Kryssie/Danielle/Whitney and Justin in the kitchen gloating about how stupid Shelby is for putting up Whitney.  Danielle whispering to Whitney that it was the best case scenario for their side.  She says that when she saw Alex's necklace light up she thought "Those girls aren't even playing."

They're such fucking idiots.  Nominating a sister would have been the worst thing in the world for the BSers' game.  The fewer people of them on the block, the better their odds.  Does Danielle want me to run the numbers?  Because I will.

Case #1:   Alex on the block, Morgan as AN.  50% shot at the Veto, but that can only save one of the sisters, anyhow.  If the LNJ wins the Veto, or if Morgan comes down, Alex is dead, with Justin/Kryssie/Whitney voting her out.  If Shelby gets to replace Alex with one of the LNJ, the BS still need the AV to target someone other than the AN, which hasn't happened yet, and for Shelby to hold the tiebreaker.  

Odds of survival:  very, very small.

Case #2:   Alex on the block, Kryssie as AN.  3/8 chance that Morgan gets pulled, so it's either 50% or 33% BS in the Veto.  Essentially, you have 2.375 BS in the comp (yes, no fractional people, I mean an average over several iterations) which, if the odds were equal (they won't be, of course), the BS would win the Veto 39.583333% of the time.  And everybody would be safe.

The other 60.41666% of the time, the LNJ wins Veto, Morgan gets backdoored, and then there's no hope at all.  

Odds of survival:  decent, but still essentially 60-40 against.

Case #3:  Whitney on the block, a sister as AN.  Same odds on getting 3 BS in the comp, same 39.583% chance at the Veto.  Which solves everything, as before.  

The difference is, though, that Whitney might win the Veto (a 16.66% chance) and if Shelby wins the tiebreaker (let's say half the time, which makes the overall odds of this scenario 8.33%), Whitney decides that she should pull herself down, rather than take a chance of being evicted by staying on the block.  After all, it would only take Morgan+America+Shelby to save Alex and while the BS might target Kryssie (on theory that "the AV follows the AN") or they might guess wrong and not force the tie after all, there's still about a 25% chance that both Morgan and America would vote to evict Whitney for being so stupid as to stay on the block, and Shelby would send her home, so perhaps Whitney uses the veto on herself.  

Let's make this scenario ("Case 3a") at about half the possibility of Whitney ever having to make this choice.  So that's about 4.166% and the BS survival rate is up to about 44%

Case #4: Whitney on the block, Kryssie as AN.  This will get complex, as there's a strong possibility of Alex getting backdoored, but there's also a good possibility she could survive that backdoor, as long as Shelby wins the tiebreaker.  I'll do all the breakdowns later, but the most important thing is that Case #2 and Case #3 are virtually the same thing, albeit with #3 being slightly the better.  

So that means it comes down to Case #1 (Shelby noms Alex, America noms Morgan) v. Case #4 (Shelby noms Whitney, America noms Kryssie), and since Case #1 is virtually hopeless and Case #4 actually is actually the BSers' best chance (I think), it's clear that Shelby made the correct call by putting up Whitney.

No matter what those overconfident jackasses may think.  (And I use the word "think" loosely.)  Because why would she chose the slightly-inferior Case #2 and the almost-hopeless Case #1 over her two best options?

Edited November 7, 2016 by DAngelus

[Katesus7]

I don't care about scenarios. I don't care about Whitney. She flipped, it's done. I sort of care about tomorrow's AN, the veto pick, and the veto winner. Until then, I'll just enjoy watching my BSers. But I'm way too stressed about Tuesday to worry about whatever happens tomorrow.

[DAngelus]

7 minutes ago, Katesus7 said:

I don't care about scenarios. I don't care about Whitney. She flipped, it's done.

Just to be clear, all of the above scenarios assume that Whitney is 100% flipped to the Jamboree, and when I talk about the BS surviving intact, I only mean Shelby/Alex/Morgan.  Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

If Whitney wants to flip back, great for her.  But Shelby shouldn't have made that possibility any part of her calculations, and I'm assuming she didn't.  But JMO.

[leocadia]

What Danielle doesn't get is that while Jas/Kry/Jus would prefer to get Alex or Morgan out, they also don't care if their big plan fails and she goes home.  Either way, it's a win for them.  The only way thing that would upset them at all is if Justin or Kryssie end up on the block and out the door.  I know it's a long shot, but I would love for that to happen.

[Lady Calypso]

I'm still hoping for a good 23rd birthday on Wednesday, so a Kryssie AN (it honestly looks like it'll happen this time as she's leading a lot of polls), an Alex veto win, her pulling Whitney down, Shelby putting up Justin, and Shelby breaking the probable tie to send out Justin would be just fantastic. 

I don't like Danielle, but I want her to stay, just to spite her backstabbing teammates who wouldn't mind her going. Plus, I do think Justin leaving would get Whitney to float back to the Ballsmashers. I know Whitney flipped because she thinks Scott/Alex betrayed her and tried to get her out last week (I don't think that's true) so I can't really blame her. Once she gets out of the house, she'll see the truth and I truly believe that she'll be friends with them. Plus, tonight, Whitney's boyfriend Winston, Alex's boyfriend Teagan (her boyfriend is actually a boy!) and Kryssie's boyfriend Mike were all on some podcast, and apparently they all get along? So that's an interesting boyfriend trio. 

Also, if I can just say this, I hate Justin a lot. He's starting to give me shades of Frank, but he seems to be more aware, and he's just hiding it better behind his humour. His bashing of Shelby, along with his inappropriate touching with Danielle (she hasn't stopped him but he hasn't stopped trying to touch her at night) while knowing that she did at least have a thing with Shane and they never broke it off, his clear flirtation with Whitney, and he doesn't seem so respectful underneath that mask. Plus, we know that he was a pimp, has been arrested several times, and has three different girlfriends who he wants to get pregnant so he can be the father of three different babies. I'm sorry, but those are finally registering as really, really big red flags for me. Plus, the fact that he blatantly ate food while as a Have Not, knowing that it was against the rules, and bragging about his sleeping methods during the day. 

He seems like one of those Nice Guys who seem nice but they're really not. And that's why I need him to go. 

[DAngelus]

19 minutes ago, Lady Calypso said:

Alex's boyfriend Teagan (her boyfriend is actually a boy!)

And another ping bites the dust…

Who names a boy "Teagan", after all?  (Well, not that it's a terribly common name, in any event.)

I tried running the scenarios for Case #4 (there were 10 of them, most of which had two sub-scenarios) but I just couldn't make the math add up. Best guess is that there's a 45-50% chance of Alex leaving if Kryssie is the AN tomorrow.  So the odds add up like this:

Case 1 (Shelby puts Alex up, America puts up Morgan):  at least 95% chance a sister leaves.

Case 2 (Shelby puts Alex up, America puts up Kryssie):  about 60% chance Alex leaves.

Case 3 (Shelby puts Whitney up, America puts up Alex): about 55% chance Alex leaves.

Case 4 (Shelby puts Whitney up, America puts up Kryssie):  45-50% chance Alex leaves.

(And I assume these numbers are actually better for the BS, because I sincerely doubt that Kryssie has much chance at winning this Veto.)

So, no, Danielle, putting Whitney up wasn't "the best scenario for [your] side."  Shelby correctly avoided two bad situations (one very bad) and gave herself a roughly 50% chance of everybody making it through the week.  Up yours, "brilliant strategist".

Obviously, if Alex is the AN this morning, then the BS have to win the Veto.  If Kryssie is the AN, however, Shelby beating Jason for the tiebreak will be almost as useful as the Veto would be.  Which is a good thing, because Shelby possibly being outnumbered by 5-1 is the reason for all of the LNJ's stupid cackling.

Too bad for them that she really only has to beat one person.  Bring it, Stockboy!  You're gonna get lawyered! [/Scott voice]

[DAngelus]

3 hours ago, leocadia said:

What Danielle doesn't get is that while Jas/Kry/Jus would prefer to get Alex or Morgan out, they also don't care if their big plan fails and she goes home.

Danielle should actually be hoping that Kryssie ends up on the block next to her.  If Alex is the AN, then if the BS win the Veto, Alex is coming down and Dani's going home.

Whereas with Kryssie on the block, most of the positive scenarios for the BS (whether Shelby wins the Veto or merely the tiebreaker, or if a sister gets drawn to play and wins Veto) end in Justin being backdoored out of the house.  And the second-likeliest pro-BS result is that the Jamboree attempt to backdoor Alex, but that the BS thwart it by Morgan and America voting out Kryssie, and Shelby using her tiebreak to evict her.

The only thing Danielle has to fear if Kryssie goes up is if Justin gets drawn for Veto, Justin wins Veto, and Shelby wins the tiebreaker.  In that case, Justin would have to choose between taking Danielle down to try and backdoor Alex (knowing that if America votes against Kryssie for the second time in three days, Kryssie goes home) or taking down Kryssie and leaving Danielle to twist slowly, slowly in the wind.  But that possibility is a distant third, or rather fourth.  Or Kryssie winning the Veto and Shelby has the tiebreak, so Kryssie has to save herself and leave Dani behind.  But I don't think Kryssie's a big threat in this Veto.

So if Danielle was really a "genius", she would be campaigning via the cameras for her fans to vote Kryssie onto the block.  It's not as if there aren't plenty of chances for the Jamboree to win Veto, Jason to win the tiebreaker, and Alex to get backdoored, anyhow.

With Alex as the AN, there's a good 40% chance Danielle goes home.  Even higher, if Kryssie is drawn to play Veto and sucks as badly as I would expect.  With Kryssie on the block, it's no worse than 10%, IMO.  So it's ironic that she's probably going to have the exact wrong reaction to the AN announcement tomorrow morning, whichever way it goes.

[Lady Calypso]

4 hours ago, DAngelus said:

The only thing Danielle has to fear if Kryssie goes up is if Justin gets drawn for Veto, Justin wins Veto, and Shelby wins the tiebreaker.  In that case, Justin would have to choose between taking Danielle down to try and backdoor Alex (knowing that if America votes against Kryssie for the second time in three days, Kryssie goes home) or taking down Kryssie and leaving Danielle to twist slowly, slowly in the wind. 

Or, what Justin could do which would be bad is to take down Whitney and forcing Shelby to put up Alex or Morgan. The Ballsmashers would have to rely on America to vote out Danielle in that case. 

It genuinely seems like Kryssie will be getting AN, though. I have a really good feeling this time, unlike last week. People really want Kryssie up and I think she'll go up, which means it'll definitely be Jason/Danielle fighting to put Alex up. If Kryssie wins, I don't know if she'll use it on Danielle, UNLESS Jason beats Shelby. If Whitney wins, will she do what Jason wants and take down Danielle, or will she realize that America will ping this as the worst move ever to not use veto on yourself and she will use the veto on herself, guaranteeing Justin's possible eviction? We all know that Whitney would be safe and Alex or Kryssie wold leave in this scenario, but Whitney thinks that the other side has betrayed her. 

It all depends on which HOH does better in the veto today. God, I really hope it's Shelby because I couldn't take Jason doing better and getting rid of Alex. It literally comes down to these two, because what happens after that may not even matter. 

[zenithwit]

Reminder that the America's Nominee voting window is open until 12pm Eastern/9am Pacific.  So if you voted yesterday (or if you forgot to vote), you can put in another 20 votes this morning.  

Eta- this is going to be a close one.  Kryssie is leading in the Jokers' polls but Alex is leading in Taran Armstrong's RHAP poll (which is on Twitter).  I think it will really come down to which side gets more people on CBS' website to vote.

And for the record, I put my 40 votes towards Kryssie.

Edited November 7, 2016 by zenithwit

[missyb]

For Alex fans, an interview with her boyfriend Teaghan on Reality Recaps. Eric dials back his dislike a bit.

Also summary of the hour plus interview in bullet points:

http://www.yourrealityrecaps.com/bbott-teaghan-alexs-bf-joins-us-live/

https://www.reddit.com/r/BigBrother/comments/5bliom/summarynotes_from_interview_alexs_boyfriend/