S32.E06: Play Or Go Home

[pamplemousse]

Tai seriously underestimates Tai's social skills.

Which, I suspect, is one of Tai's biggest core problems.

I do actually agree with this, but I'm not going to hold that against him (not saying you are, but just in general). I do think it may prove to be his downfall in the game. He's an immigrant, he's one of the older players, he's also gay, and has had a really tough time of it in life from the bits and pieces of what he's said so far about his background -- seems like he's always been kind of an outsider. He probably got through those tough times by being resourceful and being useful to people who would otherwise treat him poorly or dismissively. Seems to me like he's gone through life with the experience that having a winning personality is not good enough, he doesn't get an automatic seat at the table, people will always question why he's there and whether he belongs unless he can make himself useful. Because of this, he's probably fairly wary (although he seems guile-less) of others and figures that he needs to be self-reliant and scramble for that idol and take care of himself because people might act like they like him and might say that they like him, but it might just be that they want him to make them some Vietnamese chicken, or get them some mango, or catch them some fish. It's sad and I feel badly for him and I'm not going to think he's some flawed loser just because he's insecure in his social game.

 

The more I think about it, the more annoyed I get at what Aubry did. It seems like her and Joe had a tighter alliance than what we were shown prior to this episode, and it seems according to previous episodes that Joe and Debbie are very tight, so I'm wondering how tight Aubry and Debbie are? Seriously, if I were Joe, I would be so distrustful of Aubry now that as soon as I got the opportunity, I would tell Debbie that we need to cut Aubry loose and find some more loyal/controllable people to ally with. I mean, yes, you should ultimately be out for yourself, but the point is to get everyone else out before your alliance and then duke it out amongst yourselves. Aubry just showed that she's playing 'anyone but me, including people in my alliance' and IMO it's way too early to be playing that sort of game especially since the alliance she was in had the numbers and even untrustworthy Peter was going to stick with it. I know the 'anyone but me' strategy worked for Sandra, but IMO Aubry is no Sandra. The only way Joe and Debbie should keep Aubry is if they go all Scot Pollard and turn it into a 'teaching moment' (i.e. 'we are trying to help you' /eyeroll) and shame her for screwing their alliance when it came to numbers in order to keep her in line and bind her closer to the alliance, assuring her vote from here on out. I don't think that can be done, though, because Aubry seems kind of a like a little dictator herself, given how she was calling the shots and telling Joe what to do. I don't think her ego would take being backed into a corner like that lightly. I'm very curious to see if her vote at tribal will get her any significant blowback from Joe and eventually Debbie?

 

ETA: sorry for the double posts, tried to combine it with my previous one, but managed to screw that up!

Edited March 26, 2016 by pamplemousse

[violet and green]

 

We were rarely shown much of the pre-mix Brains interrelationships other than simplistic pairings: Joe/Deb, Aubry/Neal, and Peter/Liz.

A couple of things in this episode, however, have me suspecting the Brain tribal dynamics were much more subtle and evolved than ever made it to the screen:

1. Aubry's having no problem with calling Joe out of his overly aggressive confrontation of Peter - and, more significantly, Joe's immediate subdued acknowledgement.  To me, this was immediate evidence of a much stronger bond - and accompanying lines of communication - between Aubry and Joe than anything previously indicated.
2. When Aubry came to Joe wanting to flip their votes from Julia to Peter after hearing her name had come out of Peter's mouth, and Joe asked if the flip was "part of her neuroses" - many here seemed to consider Joe's question as an insult, but I didn't take it that way.  As I recall, Joe's question was stated in a calm even tone without scorn or condescension, and Aubry's response didn't telegraph anger or hurt - just insistence.  My interpretation was that at some point in time Joe and Aubry had actually had previous factual conversation on the subject of neuroses, to the point it was an open (or at least not-taboo) point of conversation between them - plus, I would guess Aubry would have to have a significant degree of trust in Joe to divulge personal information to such a degree.

 

YMMV, but to me:

• Both interactions indicate a much more evolved trust relationship between Aubry and Joe than anything We the Viewers have been shown in previous broadcasts.
• If TPTB have been holding back info on this, what other salient facts are they hiding...?

 

 

I think they've shown us the salient points. Clearly these people - Joe, Aubry, Debbie - have been able to have a conversation, are able to pick up on nuances, subtle and otherwise, and are able to come to some level of agreement fairly quickly about who's a creep and who isn't. I'm not particularly surprised they've built a level of comfortability in calling a spade a spade re personal tendencies.

 

We saw Aubry freaking out, and talking quite articulately about her mental processes and tendencies in the first episode. Her whole tribe witnessed it. Obviously she is not the sort of person to deny anxious or neurotic or overthinking traits, therefore.

 

Joe seems like a pretty straight up guy and I expect these three, who we were shown having individual conversations about the other members of their tribe in the early eps, are able to talk fairly openly with one another having spent so long together, more or less of one mind about who's arrogant, dismissive, and planning to give them the flick. They both freaked out in the new tribe and pulled each other back into line, more or less.

 

I think Tai and Scot had also shown good awareness and ability to be open with the right people, for now; ie, each other. It's a skill, and most of them don't have it.

[violet and green]

Tai seriously underestimates Tai's social skills.

Which, I suspect, is one of Tai's biggest core problems.

 

By social skills, I don't just mean his level of likability. He certainly trusts his instincts. His instincts were spot on re Peter, for example.

[Kromm]

I LOVE the big visible crossout. What a blatant "fuck you" to Peter.

 

Then again I'm interpreting it as a deliberate action rather than a real re-evaluation.

[SVNBob]

The more I think about it, the more annoyed I get at what Aubry did. It seems like her and Joe had a tighter alliance than what we were shown prior to this episode, and it seems according to previous episodes that Joe and Debbie are very tight, so I'm wondering how tight Aubry and Debbie are? Seriously, if I were Joe, I would be so distrustful of Aubry now that as soon as I got the opportunity, I would tell Debbie that we need to cut Aubry loose and find some more loyal/controllable people to ally with. I mean, yes, you should ultimately be out for yourself, but the point is to get everyone else out before your alliance and then duke it out amongst yourselves. Aubry just showed that she's playing 'anyone but me, including people in my alliance' and IMO it's way too early to be playing that sort of game especially since the alliance she was in had the numbers and even untrustworthy Peter was going to stick with it. I know the 'anyone but me' strategy worked for Sandra, but IMO Aubry is no Sandra. The only way Joe and Debbie should keep Aubry is if they go all Scot Pollard and turn it into a 'teaching moment' (i.e. 'we are trying to help you' /eyeroll) and shame her for screwing their alliance when it came to numbers in order to keep her in line and bind her closer to the alliance, assuring her vote from here on out. I don't think that can be done, though, because Aubry seems kind of a like a little dictator herself, given how she was calling the shots and telling Joe what to do. I don't think her ego would take being backed into a corner like that lightly. I'm very curious to see if her vote at tribal will get her any significant blowback from Joe and eventually Debbie?

 

 

I haven't really thought through the possible consequences of Aubry voting against Joe but I know when he was vetoing her suggestion of going back to his plan to vote out Peter, I was thinking, "Jeez, he's really inflexible.  I wouldn't want saddled with him much longer.  You need to roll with the punches in this game and make changes on the fly."  It just seemed like Joe's only justification for sticking to the Julia plan was ... well, nothing, except that it was plan A.

There's a couple other factors to take into account here. For one, Aubry talked to Joe about flipping the vote to Peter.  So he knew she was at least thinking about it and had already heard her arguments for doing so.  Her vote is not a blindside to Joe, just unexpected. Plus with the strike-out, it shows that she originally was with Joe, but changed her mind last second...probably because of the cross-chatter at TC.  She can recover from this.

 

Second, Debbie wanted Peter gone anyway.  If anything, she'll just be disappointed that she didn't get to vote him out herself.  She might even be proud that Aubry got it done.

[Ms Blue Jay]

By social skills, I don't just mean his level of likability. He certainly trusts his instincts. His instincts were spot on re Peter, for example.

 

How were they spot on?  They were the opposite.  Peter wanted to keep Tai around, probably at the expense of his OWN Brain tribe members, but Tai spent a few seconds with him and decided he was not to be trusted.

 

I think Tai got it in his head that the big bad Peter wolf wanted to get rid of Tai when in reality it was more like Joe, then maybe Aubry agreeing to it.  Peter wanted to get rid of JOE!  The person who wanted to get rid of Tai....

 

I get that people don't like Peter's personality but it was spelled out many many times that Peter wanted to work with Tai.

Edited March 27, 2016 by Ms Blue Jay

[violet and green]

How were they spot on?  They were the opposite.  Peter wanted to keep Tai around, probably at the expense of his OWN Brain tribe members, but Tai spent a few seconds with him and decided he was not to be trusted.

 

 

I think he spent a few minutes with him and decided he was an asshole. He said that he didn't like him. Why would you want to try to trust someone you get the measure of straight away, and inherently dislike?

 

I am sure Peter has manifold good qualities, and is doing good work in the world, etc. I wish they had kept him around, as he was interesting to watch - unlike Julia - and I wanted to see what happened next.

[kikaha]

IIMO Scot and Cydney are playing the best so far this season. 

 

Scot has a number of friends/allies... is a huge asset to his tribe in challenges, but may not be so big a threat in the individual challenges (a great combo for staying safe till merge and not getting targeted too quickly after)... is good at manipulating others... and has knowledge of/a hand in two idols.  Cydney is moving along beautifully UTR... is not a target for any reason so far... has some strong allies who want to look after her... wins trust easily and has no problem ruthlessly using that trust  to her advantage... and has knowledge of an idol.  

 

Tai seems to me too easily led, a bit wishy/washy, not conniving enough, and far too trusting. 

 

Aubrey has lots of excellent Survivor qualities, but is too indecisive and comes across as a bit neurotic. 

 

Debbie is cool, but too whacky IMO to win. 

 

Joe seems to me too inflexible to make it to the end. 

 

Kyle has allies and an idol, but comes across to me as real abrasive.

 

Neal I don't know what to make of. 

 

Nick impresses himself too much.

 

Michelle is too touchy/reactionary, especially as she was given info that will help her. 

 

That said, no one really stands out yet this season as a master player. 

[Hera]

Late to the party (again), but in all honesty, I think Aubry did the only thing she could. In fact, the only person who I think played poorly was Peter—he tried to flip too soon. They all must have suspected that the merge was coming after the next tribal council (and was a maximum of two tribal councils away). Peter should have kept up the façade of loyalty to the Brains and let everyone vote out Julia, who was an easy target. Instead, he told her he was willing to vote out one of his fellow Brains. This was dumb. She's on the bottom of the tribe and everyone knows it. And even if we assume that flipping so soon is a sound idea, why did he discuss it with her so early? Their conversation appeared to happen right after the reward challenge, before Peter even knew they were going to tribal. This gave Julia plenty of time to blab it to other people and get their reaction. And why shouldn't she? She had nothing to lose. If Peter really wanted to get Aubry or Joe out, then he should have let Julia stay on bottom, while quietly working on Scot and Tai, and only let Julia in on the plan right before they left for tribal council.

 

As for why Aubry had to cave, I think the following were all open secrets:

• That Joe did not have an idol and did not know who did. His speculation at the previous tribal council that there were no idols broadcast this.
• That Peter did not have an idol.
• That Aubry and Joe didn't get along with Peter—Peter pretty much told Julia this during their post-reward chat—and were not going to stick their necks out (via an idol play or by forcing a tie) for him.

 

I think once all of the above are known to everyone, then all Scot, Tai, and Julia have to do is stay strong and wait for Aubry and Joe to blink if the vote is tied. One or both of them would have definitely changed their vote to Peter to avoid having to draw rocks. Plus, Tai has an idol, which could have been used to bounce one of the Brains if he were at all nervous that the Brains would stay strong. The fact that he didn't tells me that it was clear that the balance of power was firmly with the Tai-Scot-Julia triad. I guess we'll see if that triad manages to turn into something more long term or if it falls apart tonight.

[Nashville]

Late to the party (again), but in all honesty, I think Aubry did the only thing she could.

I don't disagree with what Aubry did, but I DO think her way of doing it was execrable.

Aubry should NEVER have written down any name except that of her decided target - or, having done so, she should have destroyed her initial "wrong" vote - put it in her pocket for later disposal, tore it up, burned it in the fire, ate it like a secret agent, WHATEVER - and written her final vote down on a fresh ballot.

There were extras on the ballot table. I looked.

By flagrantly broadcasting her inability to commit strongly to any alliance, she banked trust with no one:

• Not Joe. Aubry effectively communicated to Joe that she values alliance with the others more than she values alliance with him - not necessarily a wrong choice, but definitely an alienating one.
• Sure as hell not Julia. Aubry managed to write Julia's name down without writing Julia's name down. Helluva trick, that. Whose name do you think Julia will be writing down at first opportunity?
• Not even the Brawn Trust, which ultimately benefited from her vote. Sure, Aubry voted with them - but only after effectively communicating EXTREME vacillation, which means she's not to be counted upon in a clinch.