Survivor 44: Spoilers

[LadyChatts]

Here's some of S44 cast from Redmond:

https://insidesurvivor.com/cast/rumored-survivor-44-cast

Also, from the person who spoiled S42, the winner of this season is supposedly a non-white male.  The final 4 is 3 men and 1 woman, with one of the men out in 4th.

[LadyChatts]

Here's some info on twists and idols this season 

[Nashville]

6 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Here's some info on twists and idols this season 

<rummages around for a yawn emoji….
…I know there’s one around here somewhere….
…ahh, there it is…>

🥱 
 

[LadyChatts]

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpoiledSurvivor/comments/w5hdg3/44boot_new_info_from_424242_summary_of_what_else/

More spoilers, including the winner of S44, two contestants who make it to the final 5, and info on medevacs, swaps, and the number of people not on jury.  

[LadyChatts]

So here are the tribe divisions per Redmond:

https://insidesurvivor.com/survivor-44-tribe-divisions-54019

If the spoilers are true, Tika might be another Coco/whatever the blue tribe from S41 was and maybe dominate the pre-merge.

[LadyChatts]

So with the preview tonight: there's a rumor that there are two medevacs this season, one of them sounding serious if true (a TBI) that is day 1 and rumored to be Bruce.  I wonder if that's what we saw in the preview?  

Edited December 15, 2022 by LadyChatts

[peachmangosteen]

Fucking hell. 

[LadyChatts]

Here's the preview from last night for the upcoming season:

https://youtu.be/B1SNEBXUUBw

So production supposedly preferred this season to S43, and I can understand why after last night's finale.  Here's some of Probst's take on the new season.  I feel like he sounds more excited for this one than he did for anything he had to say about S43.  Also, his comment about the "dangers of the jungle" maybe alludes to the medevacs this season?

https://ew.com/tv/survivor-44-jeff-probst-intel-next-season/

Quote

So, what can you say about Survivor 44, Jeff? "As you can tell from the Survivor 44 promo, we have an explosive season heading your way in March," Probst says. "The personalities are huge and wildly entertaining. The gameplay is really fun and very active, and the danger of living in the jungle is real."

Edited December 15, 2022 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

I've gotten these spoilers from Sucks and Reddit.  Take everything how you want, but some of these come from sources who have been accurate in the past.  

-There are one, maybe two medevacs this season (Bruce for sure and bearded Matt is believed to be the other one)

-Brandon faints and needs medical but it doesn't appear he's removed from the game

-There's a showmance between the other Matt and either Frannie or Helen (first it seemed like it was Helen but now sources are leaning towards Frannie)

-Because of the medevacs there's a 7 person jury

-Pre merge boots are Bruce, bearded Matt, Maddy (had SM activity while filming was going on), Sarah, Claire, maybe Joshua

-Top 10 believed to be Yam Yam, Lauren, Carolyn, Jamie Lynne, Frannie, Matt B., Carson, Heidi, Danny, and Brandon

Edited January 7, 2023 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

Here's the episode description for the first episode:

Quote

“I Can’t Wait to See Jeff” – Immediately upon reaching the beach, the three tribes go full throttle in their first challenge to earn crucial camp supplies. The remaining two tribes must choose between a mental or physical challenge to earn their camp essentials. Then, as castaways begin to get acquainted with each other, each tribe must choose one person to take a journey and make the first big decision of the game, on the two-hour season premiere of the 44th edition of SURVIVOR, Wednesday, March 1, (8:00-10:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and available to stream live and on demand on Paramount+.

Also, some posters at Reddit believe Claire or Maddy could be the first boot based off of the new promo for the season.  Another poster there who posted spoilers said Claire was the first one out of her tribe, but didn't say whether she was the actual first boot or not.

[LadyChatts]

I’m posting this here because it confirms something that was spoiled, that there is a Survivor showmance this season:

https://www.tvinsider.com/1083355/survivor-season-44-showmance-confirmed-jeff-probst/amp/

[LadyChatts]

I can't find the original article, but I've seen it mentioned elsewhere that tonight's TC is supposed to be wild and crazy (just like Probst likes them).  The belief is that Maddy is the first boot, though we'll see.  If she is the first boot, I feel like it's par for the course that another female goes first, so I wonder if something changes or shifts (maybe someone plays their SITD successfully?) or if there's just a lot of chaos and drama, but Maddy was the predictable boot and still goes home.

[LadyChatts]

So based off speculation at Reddit, the belief is that Tika (purple tribe) loses this week, and Helen goes.  She isn't seen in any challenge footage post ep. 2 that has been spoiled in different promos, and the orange tribe is seen celebrating after this week's challenge in a clip from the promo.  This could refer to the 'lines are drawn in the sand at TC' from the episode description (because originally we saw in the premiere Carson had an alliance with Sarah and Helen), and in the preview at the end of the episode it looks like maybe it'll be a Carolyn vs Helen set up.  However, Sarah lost her vote for this TC at the summit, so Carson may jump ship with the numbers and go with Carolyn and Yam Yam. 

Worth noting, too, that for the premiere that spoilers were dead on-a Bruce medevac, Brandon needing medical attention (I assume this is what they were referring to and not something that happens down the road), Matt injuring his shoulder, and Maddy getting booted.

[Lady Calypso]

Ah, here I am, reading spoilers for this season. Too late to go back now, I guess!

What a shame about Helen potentially going. I thought I read from a reliable spoiler source that Helen made jury, but maybe I was thinking of Heidi or Claire. I'm actually sad if she's gone because she's one of the very few I liked from the premiere, and it's another Asian woman going so early.

[LadyChatts]

8 hours ago, Lady Calypso said:

Ah, here I am, reading spoilers for this season. Too late to go back now, I guess!

What a shame about Helen potentially going. I thought I read from a reliable spoiler source that Helen made jury, but maybe I was thinking of Heidi or Claire. I'm actually sad if she's gone because she's one of the very few I liked from the premiere, and it's another Asian woman going so early.

I think there was a rumor early on that Helen made the jury, and that she was also in the showmance with Matt B. (which we now know is actually Frannie).  So I don't know if she got mixed up with Frannie or, as you said, someone else like Heidi.  I think the only proof right now is that she isn't accounted for in future challenges, and going off the other spoiler info that so far has been correct that has her as a pre-merger.  I kind of liked her, too.  I have a feeling Sarah not having her vote is going to screw Helen over, because Carson may not want to risk a tie and just vote with Yam Yam and Carolyn.

I have to say, if the final 3 is in fact Yam Yam, Carolyn, and Heidi, it's kind of disappointing, because I feel like Carolyn is just going to be final 3 fodder.  Too early to say on what kind of a game Heidi will play, but I fear Yam Yam might win because he's just considered the better option of the final 3.

 

[Lady Calypso]

1 minute ago, LadyChatts said:

Too early to say on what kind of a game Heidi will play, but I fear Yam Yam might win because he's just considered the better option of the final 3.

Which would just be a repeat of 43 (Gabler being the best choice of the three, not because he was the best player).

I hope not. I see some potential in Heidi with her firemaking scene, but it all depends on how the rumoured F3 are treated these next few episodes. Carolyn is treated like a joke so far, Yam Yam is treated as the loveable goofy character (similar to Gabler) and Heidi has had one decent scene that is more positive but she could also easily fade into the background in favour of louder players. 

Which does make me nervous. Jeff may be singing praises of this season and it IS only one episode in, but I'm definitely wary of this cast. 

[TVFan1]

45 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I think there was a rumor early on that Helen made the jury, and that she was also in the showmance with Matt B. (which we now know is actually Frannie).  So I don't know if she got mixed up with Frannie or, as you said, someone else like Heidi.  I think the only proof right now is that she isn't accounted for in future challenges, and going off the other spoiler info that so far has been correct that has her as a pre-merger.  I kind of liked her, too.  I have a feeling Sarah not having her vote is going to screw Helen over, because Carson may not want to risk a tie and just vote with Yam Yam and Carolyn.

I have to say, if the final 3 is in fact Yam Yam, Carolyn, and Heidi, it's kind of disappointing, because I feel like Carolyn is just going to be final 3 fodder.  Too early to say on what kind of a game Heidi will play, but I fear Yam Yam might win because he's just considered the better option of the final 3.

 

 

Is that a confirmed final 3 or is that a speculated final 3? I didn't really read any bootlists for this season, just that Yam Yam could be the winner. Carolyn is definitely giving me final 3 loser that gets zero votes at the end.

[LadyChatts]

55 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

Is that a confirmed final 3 or is that a speculated final 3? I didn't really read any bootlists for this season, just that Yam Yam could be the winner. Carolyn is definitely giving me final 3 loser that gets zero votes at the end.

I guess everything can be considered a rumor until it happens-but I believe this was spoiled by the same person who spoiled S42.  Considering how much went right in the premiere with the medevacs and the showmance blossoming, I'd say it's probably fairly solid.  Maddy was also spoiled to be a pre-merger by this person, although that was also partly figured out by web sleuthing as well. 

1 hour ago, Lady Calypso said:

Which would just be a repeat of 43 (Gabler being the best choice of the three, not because he was the best player).

I hope not. I see some potential in Heidi with her firemaking scene, but it all depends on how the rumoured F3 are treated these next few episodes. Carolyn is treated like a joke so far, Yam Yam is treated as the loveable goofy character (similar to Gabler) and Heidi has had one decent scene that is more positive but she could also easily fade into the background in favour of louder players. 

Which does make me nervous. Jeff may be singing praises of this season and it IS only one episode in, but I'm definitely wary of this cast. 

Jeff has really been hyping up this season, more than I can remember him doing in a while.  And if Jeff is sold on a season, I'm definitely cautious lol  But S43 is so far in his rearview mirror he'd have to back up 100 miles just to get a glimpse of it.  It kind of reminds me of how they announced the premiere date for S42 when S41 was still airing, and seemed to hyping that season as soon as 41 concluded.  They announced S44's premiere date in similar fashion, and were hyping it up before S43 got cold.

If Yam Yam wins, based on his premiere profile, I can see why Probst would love a winner like that.  The rumor is that Carson would have won had he not lost in fire, and that he was also well liked by production.  But I'm just getting this feeling of dread that there's not going to be a lot of solid game play this season, and it'll just be a couple of people calling the shots.  Since Heidi would be the only non-Tika member left in the final 4, I kind of hope she does some big things in the game to get herself there, and maybe the jury is just bitter and won't recognize it.  But I'm resigned to the fact that this will be more of the same that we see every season.  Of course, I'll be watching :)  

[Hanahope]

14 hours ago, Lady Calypso said:

Jeff may be singing praises of this season

I never actually read the articles, but every season i see references that Jeff "really loved" this season or that season, or is hyping this season or that season.  frankly, Jeff loves and hypes every season, at least before it is shown.  he has to, because its his paycheck, as both host and producer.  so i give absolutely no weight to how good a season is just because Jeff is singing its praises.

 

[LadyChatts]

So looking at who makes up the rest of the pre-merge (Kane, Sarah, Claire, and Joshua) it seems kind of obvious how they all go, except Josh (he’s believed to be the last pre merge boot).  We know that Kane and Sarah are on the outside.  I think those two are going to be super dull boots.  Claire's might be more interesting.  I can't remember where I saw it, but I swear that someone said there's a crazy TC that someone goes home in, and it might be Claire's.  I think they are setting something up between Matt/Frannie and Claire, and Claire may lose out.  I think it was telling this week that Jeff made a point of singling out Claire as sitting out the challenge again, followed by an eye roll from Frannie.

Bearded Matt also posted something on Twitter that I thought was kind of interesting.  Not sure if he's just trolling, or maybe he's unhappy about his edit/something coming up that he doesn't think will be portrayed accurately (he's rumored to be medevaced because of his shoulder so maybe it's that):

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by LadyChatts

[Lady Calypso]

On 3/11/2023 at 6:49 PM, LadyChatts said:

Claire's might be more interesting.  I can't remember where I saw it, but I swear that someone said there's a crazy TC that someone goes home in, and it might be Claire's.  I think they are setting something up between Matt/Frannie and Claire, and Claire may lose out.  I think it was telling this week that Jeff made a point of singling out Claire as sitting out the challenge again, followed by an eye roll from Frannie.

My first guess is either Matt/Frannie get the numbers to get Claire out to protect their showmance, or Matt/Frannie play advantages/idols to save themselves and get Claire out. If it's potentially a crazy TC, I'm guessing the latter happens. 

Realistically, it also should be the latter because whoever chooses the showmance to save should probably be voted out because of it. Never leave a duo in the game because their votes automatically count as two!

On 3/11/2023 at 6:49 PM, LadyChatts said:

Bearded Matt also posted something on Twitter that I thought was kind of interesting.  Not sure if he's just trolling, or maybe he's unhappy about his edit/something coming up that he doesn't think will be portrayed accurately (he's rumored to be medevaced because of his shoulder so maybe it's that):

 

Judging from that tweet, something 100% happens with Matthew that he's unhappy about and which will, most likely, turn out to be something silly and it seems like it may be something in the next episode (because why else would he mention it now as a tease?) Because he won't be able to speak about it for a WHILE, but it's something he clearly wants people to watch out for that has to do with him (or his tribe).

If he's going out on Wednesday, something might have gone down behind the scenes that we may or may not end up seeing.

[DEL901]

2 hours ago, Lady Calypso said:

My first guess is either Matt/Frannie get the numbers to get Claire out to protect their showmance, or Matt/Frannie play advantages/idols to save themselves and get Claire out. If it's potentially a crazy TC, I'm guessing the latter happens. 

Realistically, it also should be the latter because whoever chooses the showmance to save should probably be voted out because of it. Never leave a duo in the game because their votes automatically count as two!

Judging from that tweet, something 100% happens with Matthew that he's unhappy about and which will, most likely, turn out to be something silly and it seems like it may be something in the next episode (because why else would he mention it now as a tease?) Because he won't be able to speak about it for a WHILE, but it's something he clearly wants people to watch out for that has to do with him (or his tribe).

If he's going out on Wednesday, something might have gone down behind the scenes that we may or may not end up seeing.

And not only do the votes count as 2, if they both make it to the merge but one doesn’t make f3, the other has an automatic vote and advocate.  

[LadyChatts]

There is rumored tribe swap that's supposed to happen, which might explain the boots-it's just kind of funny that 2 of the next 4 rumored boots are all people on the outs of their tribe, and Claire may be on the outs of her tribe as well.  Matthew doesn't have a vote for 2 TC, right?  So that would leave Frannie, Danny, Heidi, Joshua, and Claire.  So they could still get Claire out even without Matthew.  I kind of hope Soka loses this week, just so we can see the dynamics going on over there.  I feel like all I know about Soka is Claire doesn't go for showmances and Matthew and Frannie are making puppy dog eyes at each other. 

Quote

 

Judging from that tweet, something 100% happens with Matthew that he's unhappy about and which will, most likely, turn out to be something silly and it seems like it may be something in the next episode (because why else would he mention it now as a tease?) Because he won't be able to speak about it for a WHILE, but it's something he clearly wants people to watch out for that has to do with him (or his tribe).

If he's going out on Wednesday, something might have gone down behind the scenes that we may or may not end up seeing.

 

He did mention in his response something about the lead up to the first TC-so maybe he wasn't happy with either something Maddy said or with the aftermath that was shown last week.  A lot of people I've seen here and elsewhere online thought him playing his SITD was a stupid move and a way for him to weasel out of having to cast a vote and pick a side.  Maybe he thought his move would be considered more genius.  I thought it was interesting he said 'when the NDA expires' and not 'when I'm allowed to do exit interviews.'  Like, what could he have to say that he couldn't sum up in an exit interview without giving away details covered by the NDA?  That's why I think he's not liking his edit overall so far and probably is anticipating something coming up that he feels is going to be taken out of context.  

[seacliffsal]

Or he could think that the producers stacked the 'deck' against him somehow with the SITD.  It seems like a grip against production is more likely to have to keep under wraps until the NDA ends.

[LadyChatts]

I feel like this season is shaping up to be like S42 in terms of edit.  If the spoilers are true, Yam Yam is MaryAnne (sweet, adorable, likable fan fave who actually has more game in them that we'll see down the road), Carolyn could be like Romeo (actually has game in them but gets dumped by her allies at the merge and somehow makes it to the end-I still think we are going to get Carolyn's wacky side come out in full force down the road), and Heidi could be Mike (has some concept of what's going on, but not as clued in as they think, and gets brought into the majority alliance).  Or switch Carolyn and Heidi, but you get the idea.

There's speculation at Sucks that next week could be the swap.  But it could be a minor swap, where one member of each tribes goes to an opposing tribe (Yam Yam was rumored to get swapped).  We saw in the preview that Jamie had a surprised look on her face, and there was a boat approaching Soka and those members looked surprised.  Maybe there's a summitt, and whoever goes to the summitt gets swapped to another tribe.  

Edited March 16, 2023 by LadyChatts

[HurricaneVal]

I like the mini-swaps, or temporary exchanges, because it can really expose good and bad gameplay.  Who over shares?  Who is desperate and starts making deals?  Who expertly gathers intel for later use?  This is on both sides, not just the swapped, but also how the members of the host tribe react to the stranger in their midst.  An over effusive welcome can make tribe mates look askance at a former ally.  The bottom of the pecking order can get tight with the swapped and gain power with one critical tribal council.  

I just wish this was back to the more relaxed old school Survivor, because we would have had more footage of tribe dynamics and then a better sense of how an interloper in their midst shifts that dynamic.

[LadyChatts]

Per Sucks, one member from each tribe gets swapped to another.  They are (based off press photos):

Josh-Tika

Carson-Ratu (him and the other fanboy Bearded Matt on the same tribe?!)

Jamie-Soka

I'm surprised that Kane and Sarah, who seemed like obvious boots from their respective tribes, are still among the next 3 rumored to go (the other being Josh).  Of course Tika could lose 2 IC, boot Josh, then Yam Yam and Carolyn could boot Sarah.  Soka shouldn't be losing anymore IC if this boot order holds up, so Jamie would be fine.  It's possible that Kane could be the last pre-merge boot; I know the order of the next 3 isn't exactly known.  It was rumored that Josh and Sarah were late pre-merge/jury, but this could still qualify, or they could have gotten Josh and Kane mixed up and Kane goes out right before the jury starts.

 

[anthonyd46]

1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

Per Sucks, one member from each tribe gets swapped to another.  They are (based off press photos):

Josh-Tika

Carson-Ratu (him and the other fanboy Bearded Matt on the same tribe?!)

Jamie-Soka

I'm surprised that Kane and Sarah, who seemed like obvious boots from their respective tribes, are still among the next 3 rumored to go (the other being Josh).  Of course Tika could lose 2 IC, boot Josh, then Yam Yam and Carolyn could boot Sarah.  Soka shouldn't be losing anymore IC if this boot order holds up, so Jamie would be fine.  It's possible that Kane could be the last pre-merge boot; I know the order of the next 3 isn't exactly known.  It was rumored that Josh and Sarah were late pre-merge/jury, but this could still qualify, or they could have gotten Josh and Kane mixed up and Kane goes out right before the jury starts.

 

Sarah could make it all the way to the merge boot and still be pre-jury I think that is what probably happens. The guy that spoiled Season 42 says Dr. Josh is one of the last ones before the second Med evac and that the second medevac is before merge. 

So my guess is :

Dr.Josh

Beard Matt 

Kane/Sarah Fake Merge

Kane/Sarah Real Merge

Edited March 17, 2023 by anthonyd46

[LadyChatts]

I can see Josh going this week.  I can't remember if it was Dalton Ross or Mike Bloom on Twitter, but they said they knew Josh was safe this past episode because he didn't get his backstory package.  And it's pretty emotional.  If we see that this week then I think he's gone.  Plus, it seems like there's a lot going on this upcoming episode-the summit and the mini tribe swap, a RC and an IC, plus TC (although nothing was mentioned in the press release about an IC or TC so I hope this episode doesn't end on a cliff hanger).  But Josh has been such a non-entity, that I can see him going in an episode that packed so much into it, especially if he goes solely for being outside the numbers.  

Edited March 18, 2023 by LadyChatts

[TVFan1]

3 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I can see Josh going this week.  I can't remember if it was Dalton Ross or Mike Bloom on Twitter, but they said they knew Josh was safe this past episode because he didn't get his backstory package.  And it's pretty emotional.  If we see that this week then I think he's gone.  Plus, it seems like there's a lot going on this upcoming episode-the summit and the mini tribe swap, a RC and an IC, plus TC (although nothing was mentioned in the press release about an IC or TC so I hope this episode doesn't end on a cliff hanger).  But Josh has been such a non-entity, that I can see him going in an episode that packed so much into it, especially if he goes solely for being outside the numbers.  

Since Josh ends up on Tika, I can see the original members of Tika boot him to weaken Soka's numbers. I wonder if when bearded Matt gets his med evac episode, does he go and one of Sarah/Kane go as well?

[LadyChatts]

3 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

Since Josh ends up on Tika, I can see the original members of Tika boot him to weaken Soka's numbers. I wonder if when bearded Matt gets his med evac episode, does he go and one of Sarah/Kane go as well?

I'm almost thinking it'll just be the medevac, and then maybe they merge?  Kind of like when Skupin was medevaced out of S2, and the Ogakor tribe got a tree mail stating that someone from the Kucha camp was injured and removed from the game, and everyone was going to the merge.  Even if this is the fake merge or earn the merge thing (not sure exactly what they are doing this season).  So one boot maybe.  The finale isn't until May 24th, and there are supposed to be 7 jurors.  If I'm counting right, then I don't think there are any double boots coming up. 

I will say that I'll be slightly annoyed if they spend a lot of time on Matt having to leave the game.  It's not that I don't feel bad that someone who's clearly a fan has to leave under those circumstances (even though I don't care for him as a player).  But he did this to himself.  He injured his shoulder by being stupid, and did further damage to himself by competing in challenges against medical's advice.  I just don't want him to get this super sad, heroic send off.  Unless production is doing it more to mock him because it is his own fault that he's injured.

Edited March 19, 2023 by LadyChatts

[anthonyd46]

30 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I'm almost thinking it'll just be the medevac, and then maybe they merge?  Kind of like when Skupin was medevaced out of S2, and the Ogakor tribe got a tree mail stating that someone from the Kucha camp was injured and removed from the game, and everyone was going to the merge.  Even if this is the fake merge or earn the merge thing (not sure exactly what they are doing this season).  So one boot maybe.  The finale isn't until May 24th, and there are supposed to be 7 jurors.  If I'm counting right, then I don't think there are any double boots coming up. 

I will say that I'll be slightly annoyed if they spend a lot of time on Matt having to leave the game.  It's not that I don't feel bad that someone who's clearly a fan has to leave under those circumstances (even though I don't care for him as a player).  But he did this to himself.  He injured his shoulder by being stupid, and did further damage to himself by competing in challenges against medical's advice.  I just don't want him to get this super sad, heroic send off.  Unless production is doing it more to mock him because it is his own fault that he's injured.

8 pre-mergers, 7 jurors, according to the spoiler guy so yea no room for double boots for sure.

Edited March 19, 2023 by anthonyd46

[LadyChatts]

I've seen some speculation that Josh might be the next boot, but the preview sure seems be leading up to Matt being medevaced.  Looking at the timeline, I don't see how they can have two boots in one episode, even if one is a medevac.  In the preview for next week, there's a shot of Yam Yam and Josh walking together that appears to be coming back from an IC.  If Tika lost, but Matt gets medevaced first, who's to say that they don't just cancel TC?  What I have is:

March  29th: Matt (medevac) or Josh (12 left after this)

April 5th: Matt (medevac) or Josh (he isn't believed to make the jury and was believed to be out pre merge, or go out at a fake merge.  Based on his edit it'd almost make more sense for him to get back together with Soka, and have them help give him his send off since he thinks he's good with them) (and this will make 11 left after this week)

April 12th: one of Kane/Brandon/Matt/Frannie/Lauren/Jamie, or Josh if he survives the previous boot (10 left-if Josh doesn’t make the jury as rumored this would be the last week for him to leave)

April 19th: Kane/Brandon/Matt/Frannie/Lauren/Jamie (9 left-I think this is where the jury phase starts?  There’d be 10 left at the start of the episode, and there’s 7 jurors plus the final 3.  So whoever is voted off here becomes the first juror)

April 26th: Kane/Brandon/Matt/Frannie/Lauren/Jamie (8 left)

May 3rd: Kane/Brandon/Matt/Frannie/Lauren/Jamie (7 left)

May 10th: Kane/Brandon/Matt/Frannie/Lauren/Jamie (6 left)

May 17th: Kane/Brandon/Matt/Frannie/Lauren/Jamie (5 left)

May 24th: Danny (5th) Carson (4th), Heidi, Carolyn, Yam Yam (final 3)

FWIW, I don't know if Matt is actually leaving next week or not, as they could just be setting him up to bow out the following week.  

 

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by LadyChatts

[Lady Calypso]

Either way, Matthew's gone in the next couple of weeks, which works for me. 

I think Kane is said to also not be in jury, but I think he gets farther than Josh. I know the consensus is one of Brandon, Jaime and Kane don't make jury, and it seems like, with the info that we have, it's Kane who misses out on jury.

I think it's possible Josh AND Matthew go next week. They may not cancel Tribal (or Matthew gets pulled at the start of episode six, after Josh goes). 

My thought is:

Next week, Josh goes but they tease Matthew's departure

Start of episode six, before the merge, Matthew is med-evaced. But they still need an episode to fill out so they go ahead with merge and challenge, Kane gets voted out/misses out on the merge. MAYBE it carries over into episode seven. 

So I think Matthew goes after Josh is voted out but right before merge, which has them still needing to vote someone out to fill the episode.

[LadyChatts]

I thought I read somewhere that Jamie’s roommate posted a video on IG of the day she got home, which was after filming completed.  Assuming Jamie wasn’t on vacation somewhere or her roommate wasn’t trolling, then she would have to make the jury.  

Josh going next wouldn’t be too surprising.  He’s outnumbered at Tika.  Him and Yam Yam clearly don’t get along.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Yam Yam maybe knew that Sarah was going last night, but played along (in case Josh didn’t play his idol and then it would have been a tie, and he could have gone home on the re-vote).  However, he hasn’t gotten his backstory package yet.  As soon as that happens I believe he’ll be gone that episode.  I can agree that the show might be hyping up Matt’s medevac, and have it happen the following episode.  I just don’t see, based on the schedule, how they can have two boots in one episode, unless they do end on a cliffhanger.  

I’m really curious what happens at the merge.  If the spoilers hold up, there’s 3 Tika and 2 Soka in the final 5.  Soka seems like they are close (and we’ve seen the pairs of Matt/Frannie and Danny/Heidi), and Ratu would be going into the jury phase with 3 members.  So will this be a case of Ratu getting picked off, then they target the couple in Matt/Frannie?  

Edited March 23, 2023 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

I realized that there is a way for there to be a double boot (Matt being medevaced and someone being voted out), but that would mean either an episode ends on a cliff-hanger with no boot, or they have a final 4 in the finale.  That would consist of a RC (most likely), the IC, the fire making challenge, and then the final TC.  Unless there's a lot to cram into a 4 person finale, or they end the finale right at 10 and give the reunion a full hour, I don't see them going that route.    

[Lady Calypso]

On 3/24/2023 at 4:26 PM, LadyChatts said:

I realized that there is a way for there to be a double boot (Matt being medevaced and someone being voted out), but that would mean either an episode ends on a cliff-hanger with no boot, or they have a final 4 in the finale.  That would consist of a RC (most likely), the IC, the fire making challenge, and then the final TC.  Unless there's a lot to cram into a 4 person finale, or they end the finale right at 10 and give the reunion a full hour, I don't see them going that route.    

Which is why I think it'll go like this:

Episode 5: Josh goes, Matthew's med-evac is teased.

Episode 6: Matthew is med-evaced, the next boot goes OR it carries over to episode 7 in a surprise cliffhanger. Maybe Matthew even gets med-evaced later in episode 6 (during the merge challenge, even), so that's how they spread the merge boot into episode 7.

Or, yeah, it could end up being a F4 finale if they have a double boot between tonight or next week.

[LadyChatts]

There is speculation on Sucks that it might be a joint TC tonight (Tika and Soka) which would make even more sense if it’s a Josh boot.  I think Josh is gone regardless, but this would tie up his story line with Soka.  
 

I can see where maybe Bearded Matt does get medevaced after the challenge in the next episode, and they cancel TC or do the vote first thing in the next ep.  I have a hard time believing they would have a final 4, but I guess we’ll find out in the next couple of episodes.  But Matt competing in the challenge and further injuring his shoulder might give him some big sentimental send off (maybe it’ll happen during the challenge where they need to halt the challenge and he’ll really get a hero’s send off).  
 

After that, I can see Ratu getting picked off at the merge.  There seems to be debate whether Kane/Brandon/Jamie is the last pre juror (all Ratu-though I think there’s a chance Jamie is on the jury).  Ratu hasn’t had much story outside of Bearded Matt and Kane being a minor character as an outsider.  Soka seems like a stronger allied tribe, so I can see them teaming up with Tika at the merge (this would also make sense if it’s 2 Sokas and 3 Tikas in the final 5).  I think Jamie is potentially getting set up for a comedic fall-in the preview for tonight she acts like she’s being given all this information, and she also has a fake idol.  I feel like there was a bigger deal made over Matthew’s fake idol, but that has more to do with Danny’s big mouth.  I wonder if Jamie plays her fake idol, Matthew figures out his is fake, finds out Danny has a real one, and they try to target Danny but he plays his.  

Edited March 29, 2023 by LadyChatts

[LadyChatts]

So this coming week will be the fake merge, and like the past few seasons, everyone is split into two tribes.  I'm assuming one tribe wins immunity and their entire tribe is safe from the vote, and the tribe that loses everyone is vulnerable (following the new earn the merge format).  Per Reddit, the two tribes will be:

Purple: Brandon, Jamie, Matt, Frannie, Carson, and Carolyn (2 of each from the old tribes)

Orange:  Josh, Heidi, Danny, Lauren, Kane, Yam Yam (3-2-1 split of the old tribes)

We saw in the preview from last week Josh talking to some of the tribe about Yam Yam being a snake.  There's no confirmation that Brandon, Jamie, Josh, or Kane make the jury, so if spoilers hold up, two of them should be the next two to go.  I do think it could be Josh this week.  I've read that Yam Yam is the only Tika member he doesn't follow on SM (though he follows the others), and since he thinks he's in tight with Soka he could get blindsided.  I know last week Danny talked about bringing him into his alliance with Brandon, but I think there's factors that could still see Josh go this week.  I could see an argument made for the other 3 being potential boots, too, but I think everything with Josh might be coming to a head.  Last week they spent so much time on TC strategizing and then they didn't even go.  If Carolyn tells everyone what went down at the summit between Danny and Brandon, and that they want to bring Josh in, that could further put a target on his back, especially if Brandon and Danny decide to get rid of him to show everyone that Carolyn is lying.  And who knows, idols may come into play as well (real and/or fake).

[LadyChatts]

I'm starting to see in the edit how Carolyn probably loses (allegedly she comes in third, behind Yam Yam and Heidi).  I am a little perplexed how Yam Yam wins.  I don't find him very likable, but I think after being on the bottom of things and escaping the vote tonight, we might start seeing his edit pick up.  I do wonder how everyone feels watching back and seeing Carolyn, because she's really been right on with things, and her edit has been pretty good for someone who comes in third.

So Kane is supposed to be the last pre-juror, and if that's the case he should be the next to go.  Brandon doesn't trust him.  Since Jamie's edit seems headed for disaster for her, Lauren has been practically invisible, and Brandon's edit has been either non-existent or not extremely positive, I think it's possible that Ratu maybe gets picked off by Soka and Tika.  Ratu's kind of irrelevant at this point.  

[TVFan1]

49 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I'm starting to see in the edit how Carolyn probably loses (allegedly she comes in third, behind Yam Yam and Heidi).  I am a little perplexed how Yam Yam wins.  I don't find him very likable, but I think after being on the bottom of things and escaping the vote tonight, we might start seeing his edit pick up.  I do wonder how everyone feels watching back and seeing Carolyn, because she's really been right on with things, and her edit has been pretty good for someone who comes in third.

So Kane is supposed to be the last pre-juror, and if that's the case he should be the next to go.  Brandon doesn't trust him.  Since Jamie's edit seems headed for disaster for her, Lauren has been practically invisible, and Brandon's edit has been either non-existent or not extremely positive, I think it's possible that Ratu maybe gets picked off by Soka and Tika.  Ratu's kind of irrelevant at this point.  

Like I said since the beginning that Carolyn seems like the third place finisher. I can see why Yam Yam and Heidi could get more votes over Carolyn. Nobody might not take Carolyn seriously. 

So, if Kane is out next, then is it Lauren after?

[LadyChatts]

1 hour ago, TVFan1 said:

Like I said since the beginning that Carolyn seems like the third place finisher. I can see why Yam Yam and Heidi could get more votes over Carolyn. Nobody might not take Carolyn seriously. 

So, if Kane is out next, then is it Lauren after?

Yeah, I was hoping maybe the spoilers were wrong (and they could still be, but everything so far has been pretty on target).  Yam Yam doesn't seem like an appealing winner but I'm watching his edit closely to see if there's an uptick in winners content.  Tonight made me think even more how underestimated Carolyn is, and I have a feeling she might have a bad showing at FTC (she may not be able to take the rapid fire questioning).  Heidi may get Soka votes since she seems close to the remaining members.

Not sure if it's Brandon or Lauren after Kane (assuming they are the next two after Kane, I'm just guessing Ratu might be in trouble).  I think tonight was setting up Kane's downfall.  I wonder if Jamie tries using her fake idol on someone (other than herself) and maybe inadvertently puts a target on her back.    

Redmond had alluded to a potential twist/advantage that I don't think ever got official confirmation.  It was basically a steal a vote, except instead of actually taking someone's ability to vote away, you just told them who to vote for.  I'm wondering if that's what Probst was alluding to in the preview for next week.

ETA: So in the case of someone like Lauren, who has two votes, I wonder how that advantage would work on someone like her.  Could the person calling the shots tell her how to use both votes?  I'm just wondering if she might be sorry she shared that info.  We saw it in a flashback tonight when Carson was talking about knowing who on Ratu had idols and advantages.  Maybe foreshadowing to him getting this advantage and using it on Lauren since she has two votes?

Edited April 6, 2023 by LadyChatts

[Lady Calypso]

11 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I'm starting to see in the edit how Carolyn probably loses (allegedly she comes in third, behind Yam Yam and Heidi).  I am a little perplexed how Yam Yam wins.  I don't find him very likable, but I think after being on the bottom of things and escaping the vote tonight, we might start seeing his edit pick up.  I do wonder how everyone feels watching back and seeing Carolyn, because she's really been right on with things, and her edit has been pretty good for someone who comes in third.

So Kane is supposed to be the last pre-juror, and if that's the case he should be the next to go.  Brandon doesn't trust him.  Since Jamie's edit seems headed for disaster for her, Lauren has been practically invisible, and Brandon's edit has been either non-existent or not extremely positive, I think it's possible that Ratu maybe gets picked off by Soka and Tika.  Ratu's kind of irrelevant at this point.  

I've been seeing how Carolyn loses for a couple of episodes now. She is clearly being portrayed as smart strategically, but not socially. Nobody takes her seriously, nobody listens to her, and her emotions have gotten in the way many times at Tribal when trying to answer a question.

She's clearly a great player, but she doesn't seem to connect well with people. Because she wears her heart on her sleeve all the time, players can see the entire rainbow of emotions on her face at all times and that may rub people the wrong way. That will likely lead to everyone not seeing her game, especially if she can't articulate it well enough, and they'll immediately write her off, if they haven't already. 

This isn't a situation in the past with players like Noura or Xander, where you can see why they were goats early on and it's accurate. Carolyn is savvy and has shown to players that she's not just some dumb crazy player, yet these players STILL think she's someone to not take seriously, and that will lose her the game. 

I can see why Yam Yam might win now. I think they will see him as the mastermind between him and Carolyn and I can see him stepping up and making some moves down the road. And I think he'll connect with people better than Carolyn will. 

[anthonyd46]

13 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Yeah, I was hoping maybe the spoilers were wrong (and they could still be, but everything so far has been pretty on target).  Yam Yam doesn't seem like an appealing winner but I'm watching his edit closely to see if there's an uptick in winners content.  Tonight made me think even more how underestimated Carolyn is, and I have a feeling she might have a bad showing at FTC (she may not be able to take the rapid fire questioning).  Heidi may get Soka votes since she seems close to the remaining members.

Not sure if it's Brandon or Lauren after Kane (assuming they are the next two after Kane, I'm just guessing Ratu might be in trouble).  I think tonight was setting up Kane's downfall.  I wonder if Jamie tries using her fake idol on someone (other than herself) and maybe inadvertently puts a target on her back.    

Redmond had alluded to a potential twist/advantage that I don't think ever got official confirmation.  It was basically a steal a vote, except instead of actually taking someone's ability to vote away, you just told them who to vote for.  I'm wondering if that's what Probst was alluding to in the preview for next week.

ETA: So in the case of someone like Lauren, who has two votes, I wonder how that advantage would work on someone like her.  Could the person calling the shots tell her how to use both votes?  I'm just wondering if she might be sorry she shared that info.  We saw it in a flashback tonight when Carson was talking about knowing who on Ratu had idols and advantages.  Maybe foreshadowing to him getting this advantage and using it on Lauren since she has two votes?

Yea I posted about this here :

 

 

I emailed Redmond about it months ago, but my posts about it keep getting ignored/deleted.

[LadyChatts]

5 hours ago, Lady Calypso said:

I've been seeing how Carolyn loses for a couple of episodes now. She is clearly being portrayed as smart strategically, but not socially. Nobody takes her seriously, nobody listens to her, and her emotions have gotten in the way many times at Tribal when trying to answer a question.

She's clearly a great player, but she doesn't seem to connect well with people. Because she wears her heart on her sleeve all the time, players can see the entire rainbow of emotions on her face at all times and that may rub people the wrong way. That will likely lead to everyone not seeing her game, especially if she can't articulate it well enough, and they'll immediately write her off, if they haven't already. 

This isn't a situation in the past with players like Noura or Xander, where you can see why they were goats early on and it's accurate. Carolyn is savvy and has shown to players that she's not just some dumb crazy player, yet these players STILL think she's someone to not take seriously, and that will lose her the game. 

I can see why Yam Yam might win now. I think they will see him as the mastermind between him and Carolyn and I can see him stepping up and making some moves down the road. And I think he'll connect with people better than Carolyn will. 

I think I've mostly been in denial about Carolyn losing lol  But I can see it.  Also, exit interviews are kind of interesting in regards to Carolyn.  Josh just said that he was surprised at how much of a grasp on the game she had, and said that one thing about working with Carolyn is no one really knew how to take her.  I can see a case where Yam Yam takes control at the FTC; he's very blunt and tells it like it is, and I don't think he'll have any issues composing himself.  I also agree that he and Carolyn might be seen as a package deal, and if people aren't taking her seriously in the game, they will likely think she's been in Yam Yam's pocket the whole game (some of her edit I feel like is alluding to this).  Heidi seems well spoken and I think might get some of the Soka vote.  I am curious how the rest of the season plays out.

[Midwestern Lady]

The Yogi who is the greatest player on the island because she knows everything  about everyone drives me crazy.   I can't even remember her name but she is so smart and an  asset to keep around.  Just ask her.    

[Guest]

On 4/6/2023 at 2:36 PM, LadyChatts said:

I think I've mostly been in denial about Carolyn losing lol  But I can see it.  Also, exit interviews are kind of interesting in regards to Carolyn.  Josh just said that he was surprised at how much of a grasp on the game she had, and said that one thing about working with Carolyn is no one really knew how to take her.  I can see a case where Yam Yam takes control at the FTC; he's very blunt and tells it like it is, and I don't think he'll have any issues composing himself.  I also agree that he and Carolyn might be seen as a package deal, and if people aren't taking her seriously in the game, they will likely think she's been in Yam Yam's pocket the whole game (some of her edit I feel like is alluding to this).  Heidi seems well spoken and I think might get some of the Soka vote.  I am curious how the rest of the season plays out.

If Caroline makes it to Final 3, she still may have a good chance to win.

Kristie Bennett won Australian Survivor Season 3 in 2016. Her game began with panic and anxiety attacks, she was a very introverted loner with awkward speech, so she was seen as an easy vote-off through 2 tribes and the merge.

In the Final Immunity Challenge, after the first half of the ‘power couple’ dropped, Kristie begged Lee to let her win, promising to take him to Final Tribal.  She knew that if he won the challenge he would take his showmance partner with him.  But Lee also knew that if he went up against Kristie, he would certainly win for sure. 

At Final Tribal 3, the jury came in shaking their heads that Kristie was wearing the immunity necklace.  They seemed shocked when she kept Lee to go up against instead of El.

At Final Tribal, the jury was critical of Kristie and soft on Lee, especially his showmance partner, El. After easily answering the first few negative comments without panic, anxiety, or awkward speech, one of the jurors came up and said “Hello, Kristie, it’s nice to meet you” and everyone laughed.

Nick, the third last juror, came at both of them hard. Lee began to muff his answers while Kristie became even more confidant.

Final Immunity Challenge begins at 9:46

Final Tribal begins at 48:17.

Caroline may pull off a Kristie at Final Tribal if she is lucky enough to get there.

Or she could become just another Aubry Bracco.

[LadyChatts]

So apparently, this is happening tomorrow night:

So it's kind of like last week, with half the tribe not immune, except the half of the tribe that’s immune half can't vote, and on top of half the tribe being immune again, someone on the losing side will also be immune.  So does this mean, like, 3 people will be eligible to be voted for?  They must really want an idol (real or otherwise) to get played.  

I never thought I'd miss the days when the most annoying thing about TC was when the group played a game of telephone with each other to try and flip the vote and/or create chaos.  

Edited April 12, 2023 by LadyChatts

[Lady Calypso]

Oh....oh, that sounds like a terrible twist.

Basically, a huge ass "you might get screwed over by a random team draw" type situation, especially given how the challenge is likely some stupid ass balancing challenge.  I'm really, really sick of having so few people being eligible to be voted for.

This may be just as bad as the Hourglass Twist, where it was a "surprise! You're actually NOT safe, suckers!". Actually, no, nothing's worse than that. But it's still really dumb. No, Survivor, we really DON'T like when only four people can be voted for by merge. Really, we don't, we LIKE the chaos when more people can be voted for. 

[LadyChatts]

Kane is rumored to be the last pre juror, and if so this set up could make sense why he leaves.  Especially if he winds up on a team with Brandon, who has it out for him.  

I just think this is stupid, especially because it was done last week (except the entire tribe got to vote while half of them were ineligible to be voted for).  I don’t get the point.  It really screws someone over.  I think Probst is so desperate for moments that the show basically has to manufacture them rather than let them play out naturally.