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Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

Serena

By Serena
in Once Upon A Time

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Emma

Emma

We could blame TWD mid season finale, football, and the holiday weekend but only ABC took a major hit.

 

We'll see how it responds next week and the DVR numbers should be telling too.

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Shanna Marie
Shanna Marie

I've realized that my feelings about the show's current status and cancellation potential are like when you're in that phase of a relationship where you're realizing it's not working, but you don't re

Curio
Curio

So, this OUAT ad played during the Oscars last night. The Oscars drew 32.9 million viewers. Not including sporting events, the Academy Awards is consistently one of the most-watched events on tel

Mari
Mari

So, the last five minutes were so bad they caused widespread device malfunction?  Sounds about right.

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sharky

sharky

If we're playing the excuses game, CBS had a football overrun so Once was competing against 60 Minutes for the first half of its airing. Any show would struggle when the other networks were running football and that juggernaut.

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FormerMod-a1

FormerMod-a1

I was going to say that maybe people plain forgot/didn't even know it was on.  A 2 hour episode followed by a week off, they may have thought it was in hiatus.  However, if ABC as a whole dropped that may not be it,  What else is on ABC after OAUT, Resurrection and ??   Resurrection had a break too, right?

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sharky

sharky

Yea, I keep hearing about Walking Dead being an excuse for the bad ratings and I don't get it since they're not on at the same time and dont see to have the same fan base. So where does this theory come from?

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Camera One

Camera One

I think they might have an overlapping fanbase.  It is such a huge phenomenon, even kids watch it (even though they shouldn't).  Some people have Walking Dead viewing parties, where they have dinner and then watch together.  

 

I hope the ratings drop was due to the week off.  As usual, people find it hard to adjust and they forget, especially if they are not that motivated to watch to begin with.  

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HoodlumSheep

HoodlumSheep

Interesting. Hopefully the dvr numbers continue to rise back up.

So the 7 day dvr went from 4/3.9ish down to 3.5, back up for 6, then back down? I wonder why they went back down for episode 7?

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Mitch

Mitch

I read somewhere that "Once," and WD are the two shows on Sunday that share a lot of the same viewers...(I thought Cora's zombies were a nod to them...)  I know that is at our house...I actually say to our dog, "Were going to watch the Evil Queen and the zombies," and she jumps up on the ottoman like she  is going to watch. Stupid I know but it works for when I want her on the ottoman and out of the way even when its not Sunday night.

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Curio

Curio

It looks like that random week off to hold the AMAs and the holiday season kicking in has really killed the live viewership for these final episodes. (It also doesn't help that the middle episodes during 4A kind of went down in quality, in my opinion.)

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Shanna Marie

Shanna Marie

I wonder if there were people who thought that the two-hour episode that ended with happy fireworks and a mild "things aren't resolved entirely, but the heroes don't know it" cliffhanger about Hook's heart, followed by no episode the next week, meant that the two-hour episode was the mid-season finale, and so they haven't thought to watch the subsequent episodes. My parents tend to do stuff like that. Their newspaper quit carrying the TV listings because everyone gets that from the Internet or their cable/DVR box these days, but my parents haven't quite figured out how to get the cable box listings, so if something looked like a finale and then wasn't on the next week, they'd just assume it was over.

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Curio

Curio

I wonder if there were people who thought that the two-hour episode that ended with happy fireworks and a mild "things aren't resolved entirely, but the heroes don't know it" cliffhanger about Hook's heart, followed by no episode the next week, meant that the two-hour episode was the mid-season finale, and so they haven't thought to watch the subsequent episodes.

 

I watched that episode with a friend who's a casual viewer, and when the episode ended, she was like "wait, was that the finale?" So it's highly possible.

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Shanna Marie

Shanna Marie

I'm pretty sure that Robin Hood having sex with the Evil Queen in a crypt while Maid Marian laid frozen somewhere made a lot of the remaining Frozen fans abandon the show.

Not to mention Snow White later telling the Evil Queen that there's nothing at all wrong with sleeping with a married man. I can picture all the parents watching "the Frozen show" with their kids saying, "Hey, why don't we just watch the DVD of Frozen again, instead?"

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HoodlumSheep

HoodlumSheep

:''( Hopefully it bumps up.

It's Probably a combo of taking a break/ 2 hr fake-out finale/ kinda sketchy scenes/ holidays-so-people-are-watching-Rudolph-instead.

It's too bad, it was a pretty good episode. And next week is the finale, so I hope it goes up even if it's by a tenth, because that would still be better than last year's numbers.

As long as it stays above a 2.

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maryle

maryle

That sad, but I'm not surprise it seem the show miss something at stake that will convince people they have to wath live.

I know some people will blame it on Cs but in reality the show does not really play up the all Hook is hearthless and Emma must save him angle.

I will follow how the marketing for next week final, it will be interesting to see how they marketing it.

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Mathius

Mathius

How the heck does CS have anything to do with this?

As I said before, if the ratings didn't change, and they haven't, then the fault lies with the dumbass decision to make 4x08 a two-hour event. That just killed all momentum and it killed many people's desires to watch the show live.

The final DVR ratings for last week's episode are equal to the live ratings of the season premiere, so it's not like most of the audience has abandoned the show outright....it's just that they've stopped tuning in live. And I can't say I blame them.

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KingOfHearts

KingOfHearts

(edited)

With the insane amount of commercials, watching live is annoying. The breaks stifle the momentum a lot. Whenever I rewatch it always seems higher quality than it was on live TV. Binge watching is even better.

Edited by KingOfHearts
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Souris

Souris

I've started watching on DVR after the godawful 4x05 so I can hit the FF button if Regina scenes get too annoying for me.

 

I do think the 2-hour "event" followed by a week off made some people think it was over until spring.

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HoodlumSheep

HoodlumSheep

I know some people will blame it on Cs but in reality the show does not really play up the all Hook is hearthless and Emma must save him angle.

I will follow how the marketing for next week final, it will be interesting to see how they marketing it.

Of course some will blame CS, even though they haven't been playing up the CS lately. Technically one can argue that CS has shared significantly less time together (or at least it feels like it) ever since about 4x05 (scene-wise, I mean), which is where the drop off started.

But, as we all know, shipping isn't the problem. It's a combined factor of a billion other things.

I know on twitter they promoted the return of the Evil Queen pretty heavily (or at least what I would consider heavily). I only can remember only a few promotional tweets that weren't about Regina.

Oh gosh, reading my post makes it look like I'm kind of blaming Regina for low ratings, but I promise that's not the case! The vicious shipping blame game never ends.

I really hope the finale does well. I'm hoping for a miracle that it can at least match 3b's 2.3 rating (it was 2.3, right?)

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Curio

Curio

(edited)

I really hope the finale does well.

 

I'm assuming it'll probably have similar numbers to this week's episode, and then we'll get a slight bump up again when 4B premiers in spring.

 

I'm not sure if we're allowed to talk about the promo ads in this thread, so I'll throw it under a spoiler tag just in case:

What I'm really surprised about is the promo department's decision to make the finale seem completely random compared to what we've seen throughout all of 4A. Instead of hinting at Belle finding out about Rumple's secrets, they reveal that Cruella, Ursula, and Maleficent will be in the episode. Instead of pumping the audience up for the return of Hook's heart (or failure to return it), we apparently have a Dalmation, Enchanted Forest Belle, and Regina and Robin making out? It's just weird to me that they're not hyping up the drama that most of the viewers who've made it this far in the season will be most excited to see.

Edited by Curio
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FabulousTater

FabulousTater

(edited)

You know, instead of blaming a specific ship, character, episode, or whatever, the ratings dip could be because (and this is crazy, I know) the show just isn't that great. It's possible people have gotten bored and tuned out. It's not like it's must watch tv. The show has pretty much established itself as something that you can tune out but then tune back in seasons later without missing a beat. It's not like there's a lot of character development to be had. Hell, Snow and Regina are still having the same fight about the same stuff right now in season 4 that they were fighting about in season 1. 

 

The numbers are pretty on target with last seasons, and though  a 2.0 isn't as great as the 3.x that it had when the season opened it's still a strong ratings number. I don't think the show is going anywhere anytime soon. It would have to stay in the mid/low 1.x for the rest of the year to be a concern in terms of cancellation.

Edited by FabulousTater
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Mathius

Mathius

You know, instead of blaming a specific ship, character, episode, or whatever, the ratings dip could be because (and this is crazy, I know) the show just isn't that great. It's possible people have gotten bored and tuned out.

Yes, but when the season started off with such a high, then there does have to be a specific moment when the majority of those people got bored and tuned out. Looking at the ratings, it's pretty obviously the two-hour event episode that did it, since (aside from 4x05, wonder why), the season was going very steady until then.

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Aliasscape

Aliasscape

(edited)

Curio:

 
I'm assuming it'll probably have similar numbers to this week's episode, and then we'll get a slight bump up again when 4B premiers in spring.

 

I'm not sure if we're allowed to talk about the promo ads in this thread, so I'll throw it under a spoiler tag just in case:

What I'm really surprised about is the promo department's decision to make the finale seem completely random compared to what we've seen throughout all of 4A. Instead of hinting at Belle finding out about Rumple's secrets, they reveal that Cruella, Ursula, and Maleficent will be in the episode. Instead of pumping the audience up for the return of Hook's heart (or failure to return it), we apparently have a Dalmation, Enchanted Forest Belle, and Regina and Robin making out? It's just weird to me that they're not hyping up the drama that most of the viewers who've made it this far in the season will be most excited to see.

 

Ha, I'm certain in no universe does advertising a bunch of Belle help the ratings. Creepiest most unhealthy relationship often treated as good on this show. But they have to make you want to come back for next half season, and they're trying to draw in the people interested in what the second half will be about.

 

It's winter, it's the holidays. And the brand new live-action Frozen shine has worn off. And spring is not a high ratings time period either, all that sunshine and people outside. 

 

Here's the question though, that I don't have time to use a calculator to check at the moment. What is the current season average?

Edited by Aliasscape
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KingOfHearts

KingOfHearts

(edited)

Once had this "OMG what's going to happen next?!" factor in S1 and S2, but they dropped the ball in that area in S3. There's no suspense to keep people watching. The endings have become so predictable and the stories have become so episodic that like what FabulousTater said, audiences don't have a need to keep up with every new week. Tacking on new franchises just doesn't cut it. They've already used Frozen, and right now there's no bigger name in the Disney repertoire. I'm predicting a dive like in 2B and 3B.

 

The lack of exciting new plot elements for the main characters is probably a large part of it as well. Audiences don't feel like they can invest themselves in them because they're usually sidelined in favor of the arc's big threat. The absence of character development is boring.

Edited by KingOfHearts
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Dani-Ellie

Dani-Ellie

Yeah, I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon, either. I just wish that the higher-ups would take a look at the ratings trends. Not necessarily week-to-week fluctuations but actual trends. If I were running a show, I think I'd take the huge drop in the back-half of season two as a red flag. Something about what was happening onscreen caused a lot of people to tune out all at once, and I would think they'd want to try to narrow down what that something was. Not from a pleasing-the-fans standpoint but simply from a longevity standpoint. Typically, you want a show to be as successful as possible; a huge drop-off in ratings should be troubling.

 

There was always going to be a drop during and/or after Frozen, because there were going to be people checking it out just for Frozen, so that's not necessarily troubling in and of itself. But again, maybe look at the trends and see if they can narrow down what is making people tune out. And then maybe work on trying to fix it.

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Mathius

Mathius

(edited)

Once had this "OMG what's going to happen next?!" factor in S1 and S2, but they dropped the ball in that area in S3. There's no suspense to keep people watching. The endings have become so predictable and the stories have become so episodic that like what FabulousTater said, audiences don't have a need to keep up with every new week. Tacking on new franchises just doesn't cut it. They've already used Frozen, and right now there's no bigger name in the Disney repertoire. I'm predicting a dive like in 2B and 3B.

The lack of exciting new plot elements for the main characters is probably a large part of it as well. Audiences don't feel like they can invest themselves in them because they're usually sidelined in favor of the arc's big threat. The absence of character development is boring.

Techinally, the ball was dropped in 2B, not S3. 3A had a noteworthy boost during its first half when character interaction and development was a big focus, plus debuts of new characters like Pan, Tink and Ariel. The ratings dropped in the second half, when it was all about the actual "save Henry" mission that audiences (understandably) weren't invested in.

Yeah, I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon, either. I just wish that the higher-ups would take a look at the ratings trends. Not necessarily week-to-week fluctuations but actual trends. If I were running a show, I think I'd take the huge drop in the back-half of season two as a red flag. Something about what was happening onscreen caused a lot of people to tune out all at once, and I would think they'd want to try to narrow down what that something was. Not from a pleasing-the-fans standpoint but simply from a longevity standpoint. Typically, you want a show to be as successful as possible; a huge drop-off in ratings should be troubling.

The huge drop was a three-strike deal through "The Cricket Game", "The Outsider", and "In the Name of the Brother", so the big trends that caused this were most likely:

- Trading genuinely redeeming Regina in for making her out to be a victim

- Making Rumbelle more creepy and then proceeding to fridge Belle

- Focusing on a character and backstory that is completely irrelevant (Frankenstein)

Also, the lack of development between Emma and her parents during all of this despite it being the time to do it, particularly noteworthy in "In the Name of the Brother" where Emma ends up having to seperate from them AGAIN to go with Gold to New York.

Edited by Mathius
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KingOfHearts

KingOfHearts

(edited)

 

Techinally, the ball was dropped in 2B, not S3. 3A had a noteworthy boost during its first half when character interaction and development was a big focus, plus debuts of new characters like Pan, Tink and Ariel. The ratings dropped in the second half, when it was all about the actual "save Henry" mission that audiences (understandably) weren't invested in.

I'm not talking about the whole ratings, just about twists and suspense. 2B, though terrible, still had plenty of turns in it. S3 was much more straight-forward for the most part. 2B definitely dropped the ball as a whole, though.

Edited by KingOfHearts
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Jean

Jean

Those ratings are what they were getting in S2 and S3 so it's not a lost at all. The lost comes from the "here for Frozen" viewers gain and the conclusion should be, A&E had a billion dollor cash cow in their back pocket and failed to milk it on all levels. The Frozen centric promotions ceased after the premiere and the story couldn't hold the viewers interest.

 

And now it's the holidays so people are looking for holiday related or heart-warming cheesy stuff with their family. Once doesn't and can't do that being a soap opera format. If it was more episodic they could've done an "Elsa/Anna does Christmas in NYC" or "Kristoff and Anna tries to cook a turkey, hilarity ensues." I think as cheesy and geared towards kids and families as those things are, if you want to hang on to the Frozen demos then it would've been a lot more successful than the same old Once soap opera we've been getting. Who wants to watch that depressing stuff Once regularly puts out, especially during the holidays?

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Shanna Marie

Shanna Marie

You know, they really missed the opportunity to do a Christmas episode while the Frozen gang was in town. Guaranteed white Christmas! And that would have been a great way to delve into the various family intricacies while also playing with the fish-out-of-water situation with people like Elsa and Hook. Do they have an equivalent celebration in their world? Crazy plot-related stuff could have gone on around it, but it would have been great for promotional purposes.

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sharky

sharky

You know, I know we've been complaining about that extra hour being added to the wrong place -- myself included -- but I honestly think that's more of a moronic executive call than a decision made byt Adam and Eddy. They definitely deserve some criticism, but I think that extra hour -- and the weaknesses in it -- weren't necessarily their fault. I have a feeling they had to come up with some extra fluff because of a scheduling decision out of their control.

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Camera One

Camera One

Yeah, the network execs or the scheduling folks were probably to blame for the timing for the 2 hour event.  I suppose on paper, the cliffhanger was the new Curse being cast, so it should have kept people at the edge of their seats for the next episode, even if it was 2 weeks later.

 

I know it would have been tough to add scenes to a script that was already written, so I can sympathesize with A&E in that respect.  However, even without the extra hour, they had already made the choice to completely ignore the stuff they started for Emma/Snow/Charming in the previous episode, and yet they still used the extra hour to pad the Regina subplot, no matter the damage to other characters.  They made the worst choices they could have made under the circumstances and for that I do blame them.

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KingOfHearts

KingOfHearts

(edited)

 

and yet they still used the extra hour to pad the Regina subplot, no matter the damage to other characters.

They haven't utilized Regina's subplot, either. Her revelation about Page 23 hasn't come up or changed anything. A lot of that plot seemed tacked on to me.

Edited by KingOfHearts
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Souris

Souris

So like 2.0s for the rest of the season wouldn't drag it down to a canceled level.

 

No. Once is doing so well compared to the rest of ABC's schedule that is not helmed by Shonda Rhimes, it's safe. 

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FabulousTater

FabulousTater

(edited)

So like 2.0s for the rest of the season wouldn't drag it down to a canceled level.

Ya. Basically, the show would have to hit a 1.5 demo rating for every single episode from now until the finale (so for the next 12 episodes) for this season's average to dip down to a 2.0 (which I don't think puts it on "Cancel this crap NOW!" level, but would definitely be concerning for those who care). I mean, it's not an impossible feat, but I think this show still has enough "give me my crack!" type viewers left in it's audience that it should probably stay above a 1.5 demo rating...for the most part. You can never underestimate the power of crap writing. (Heh, actually, starting a ratings betting pool for OUAT sounds more interesting than anything that's happening on the show right now )

Edited by FabulousTater
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Serena

Serena

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The Blacklist and Once are Netflix's most watched shows. Apparently, together they count for 7% of ALL of Netflix's viewership. That seems super huge to me. ABC must be happy. I'm betting they can sell upcoming seasons of Once for a LOT of money. And, even though there's zero change ABC will cancel Once, if the impossible happens, Netflix is pretty much sure to 'save' it.

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regularlyleaded

regularlyleaded

(edited)
And, even though there's zero change ABC will cancel Once, if the impossible happens, Netflix is pretty much sure to 'save' it.

 

Not necessarily. That piece of information lacks any significant granularity to say what Netflix would do.

 

For example, that 7% is supposedly for both ONCE and "The Blacklist" combined. "The Blacklist" has only one season on Netflix versus ONCE's three, but does that correlate with ONCE having the larger viewership? Not necessarily. For "The Blacklist" to be on there with only one season is not insignificant. Plus, does that 7% account for unique views or does it represent a significantly smaller number of accounts watching the show over and over and over (as rabid fans are wont to do with their obsession favorite show)? Do the viewers watch all three seasons of ONCE that are available on Netflix or do they get half way through season 2 and drop out, or are they cherry-picking episodes? Also, is that 7% a new uptick due to interest created by the Frozen franchise or has that number been sustained for more than the last two months? And that 7% is representative of most viewed shows starting from when exactly? Since the start of 2014, for the last 6 months, since last week, or...?

Edited by regularlyleaded
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KingOfHearts

KingOfHearts

(edited)

 

Also, is that 7% a new uptick due to interest created by the Frozen franchise or has that number been sustained for more than the last two months

 

I think if people were interested in Frozen enough to recap the show, there'd be higher ratings. The season is slightly above S3, but it hasn't started a viewer revolution to start watching again. If Once is able to beat shows like Walking Dead who totally kill it live at all, then I'd say Netflix is an advantageous area.

 

Once is just better if its binge-watched, if you ask me.

Edited by KingOfHearts
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regularlyleaded

regularlyleaded

(edited)
I think if people were interested in Frozen enough to recap the show, there'd be higher ratings. The season is slightly above S3, but it hasn't started a viewer revolution to start watching again. If Once is able to beat shows like Walking Dead who totally kill it live at all, then I'd say Netflix is an advantageous area.

I'm not sure I'm following your point.

 

The point I was trying to make is that that number, 7%, tells us very little without more information attached to it. First it's lumping together two shows and also it doesn't tell us the time period for which that number represents. It says the most viewed shows on Netflix are ONCE and "The Blacklist", but starting from when? Over what chunk of time does that 7% represent? Is it year-to-date, the last quarter, the last two weeks, or since breakfast? What is it? And does that 7% count only unique views or do they account for repeat watching by the same "persons"?

 

Any statistic can be made to appear significant when you leave out certain details (or pick and choose what details to attach to it).

 

ETA: That article seemed to be talking broadcast shows (ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, CW) versus Netflix original content, so that 7% may be that "The Blacklist" and ONCE are the most viewed "TV broadcast" shows. "The Walking Dead" isn't available over broadcast. It's on a cable/pay channel, so that 7% may not be taking into account every single available TV program (subscription, cable, or broadcast) on Netflix. Again, I just don't think there's enough information in that article to jump to any conclusions.

 

ETA (Part Deux): Netflix is also notorious for NOT releasing viewership numbers so is this number based on research that CBS got from their own research department or a third-party researcher? If so, what was their methodology for getting information from what is essentially a closed system? Sorry, to harp, but when a statistic gets thrown out into the ether without any contextual information it just bugs me. ;)

Edited by regularlyleaded
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