S19.E23: Power of Veto #7

[Wandering Snark]

Well maybe the next time rent is due they'll look at their bank balance and realize adding $500,000 to it might have been nice...

1 hour ago, Mumbles said:

I found it heartwarming when Cody was talking about his daughter to Kevin and he was all, "I know all parents say this, but my girl is smart!" Points for recognizing that all parents think their kids are geniuses, and points for getting excited that his girl is *smart*.

Yeah he and Kevin really lit up during that convo, it was good to see the human side of Cody.

33 minutes ago, ghoulina said:

You'd think by that point his hormones would have calmed down enough that he wouldn't need to resort to hitching his ride to uber annoying Raven all season just to get his rocks off. 

I believe this ingrained pattern for single males ends somewhere around 80ish...

[Rachel RSL]

I guess I'm a raging bitch because Cody talking about his daughter just made me roll my eyes.  He only gets his daughter in the summer and he gave up his time with her to go on a reality show? I could understand it maybe if he was trying to win the money to better her life BUT then he threw away his game for a woman he'd only known a few weeks. His priority this summer was Jessica and nothing else.  I really really hope he goes tonight so we can move on, I'm so over Cody vs Paul.

[Nashville]

3 hours ago, Wouldofshouldof said:

Not to mention many people think it's "You reap what you sew," lol.

Maybe they think it's "You rip what you sew"?  Means pretty much the opposite of its original intent, but at least the terms are related.  :)

 

1 hour ago, LoneHaranguer said:

I don't recall which of the women explained it when they unveiled the pairings, but it was basically that they were horny 20-somethings settling for what was available.

Sounds like Elena; she's the biggest M&M* of the bunch.

 

* M&M = constant sex-talker; "Melts in your ear, not in your hand".

 

1 hour ago, Halting Hex said:

Even in the best possible scenario for the upcoming Double Eviction (Mark wins HoH, nominates Paul and Alex, so that he knows Jason will vote out Paul, the Veto doesn't come into play), I don't think we could get rid of TinyDick.

 

(Hypothetical) Votes to evict Paul:  Jason, Kevin (maaaaaaybe), Elena (this assumes a LOT, that she can put strategy over her personal issues with Alex and that Mark can work the fractured showmance enough to get some trust, but let's be optimists here)

(Hypothetical) Votes to evict Alex:  Josh, Christmas, Matt, Raven

 

The numbers just don't work.  Put up Raven as a pawn, and you gain Matt's vote, but you lose Alex and probably Jason.  Put up Christmas as a "pawn", and everybody except Josh (maybe) and possibly Elena votes her out.  Put up Kevin and he probably gets booted unanimously.  (Elena isn't going to be the outlier on a 6-1 vote.)  He can't be steamrolled by the remnants of the "couples" (especially as Matt/Raven want to protect him at all costs), so you'd need a backstab.  

 

But Josh missed that chance.  (He would have had to make the deal with Cody/Jessica before the Safety comp so that [hopefully] the third nominee was from the Minions side of the House, and he would have had to use Raven as a pawn to secure Matt's vote, but he could have had Cody/Jessica/Mark/Elena/Matt and possibly Christmas voting out Paul, and with only needing four votes and his tiebreak, he could have survived even two flips. But of course Josh never even had a thought about that move, even though getting Paul out before Jury would have been enough of a coup to make him the frontrunner in any F2 he might have reached.)  And now I can't even see when another one might be coming.  Maybe Alex/Jason/Kevin making a move at the F5, but not before, and that assumes Kevin lasts that long.  Very long odds.

Regardless of the DE, I think this season is on the razor's edge of its final tipping point For whether or not the entire thing is a Paul runaway.  If Cody walks tonight (and we have every reason to expect he will), then there is only one single outcome which might keep the season from being a foregone conclusion - and it's not a Mark HoH.  Rather, it would absolutely require one of the hardcore Paulettes - Matt, Raven, Christmas, or Josh - to go turncoat and nominate Paul/Alex (first choice) or Paul/Josh (second choice).

Reason being Paul already has too much depth in his supporting numbers.  You can't have Mark or Elena or any other Paul-clashing HG in as HoH, because you need their numbers in the eviction vote; without a full anti-Paul voting bloc, the numbers simply will not work.  Only way Paul goes now is if:

1. A hardcore minion wins HoH and turns traitor.
2. Paul ends up OTB for the eviction vote next to a minion with a significant-other House relationship who's voting.
3. Kevin can be swayed to vote against Paul (variable difficulty, but key requirement).

This removes two Paul-preserving votes, and opens up the only possibility for a coup.  

Scenario: Matt (or any one of the Core Four Paulettes) goes turncoat - wins DE #1 HoH, flips sides, and ends up with final Block noms Paul/Alex:

• VTE Paul: Mark, Elena, Jason (not gonna vote to evict Alex), and Kevin.
• VTE Alex: Josh, Christmas, Raven.

Same basic thing if:

• Paul/Jason: Alex votes to save her SO Jason, Paul goes 4-3.
• Paul/Josh:  Christmas flips to save SO (and more easily beatable) Josh, Paul goes 4-3.
• Paul/Christmas (weakest possibility): if Josh values Christmas over Paul, Paul goes 4-3.

Doesn't work if the turncoat noms their own SO; you need that relationship to flip an additional vote against Paul.  If Matt nommed Raven, for example:

• VTE Paul: Mark, Elena, and Kevin.

• VTE Raven: Josh, Christmas, Alex, Jason.

Chances for this at a guess?  I'd say 5% or less.  Without that turncoat option, though, chances drop down to nonexistent.

 

1 hour ago, ghoulina said:

Surely Matt is at least 30? (And I don't just say that because of the grey hair.) You'd think by that point his hormones would have calmed down enough that he wouldn't need to resort to hitching his ride to uber annoying Raven all season just to get his rocks off. 

Matt is 33.

 

59 minutes ago, Wandering Snark said:

I believe this ingrained pattern for single males ends somewhere around 80ish...

You're exaggerating; some as early as 78.

<rimshot>

[simplyme]

I finally started watching BB this season. I'm a bit... perturbed. Admittedly, that's usual for BB. Things I want to know that have probably been answered in the previous twenty-some episodes, but I'm not up to reading that much:

Why the hell is Paul back? Did they even put another vet in the house to make the favoritism a bit less obvious?  

Why do so many of these people YELL instead of talk? 

What's with using the term "boo boo" all the time (Or even worse, the term "kitty boo boo")? Do they think they are in Jellystone Park and are going to go steal some pic-a-nic baskets?

Does Kevin have a Christopher Walken vibe or is that just me?

[Michichick]

35 minutes ago, simplyme said:

I

"Why the hell is Paul back?" It's a twist!

"Did they even put another vet in the house to make the favoritism a bit less obvious?" Nope

"Why do so many of these people YELL instead of talk?" They're obnoxious idiots.

"What's with using the term "boo boo" all the time (Or even worse, the term "kitty boo boo")? Do they think they are in Jellystone Park and are going to go steal some pic-a-nic baskets?" They're obnoxious idiots.

"Does Kevin have a Christopher Walken vibe or is that just me?" It's you.

[simplyme]

33 minutes ago, Michichick said:

"Why the hell is Paul back?" It's a twist!

First, thank you for answering my questions. Even the obvious ones. :)

Second, this twist sucks almost as much as Paul's chest tattoo.

Apparently obnoxious idiot, red lipstick, and uses tic-inducing catchphrases were all on the casting checklist. (I believe only the red lipstick may be new to that list since the last time I watched.)

Also... I'm really the only person to see Christopher Walken in Kevin? I admit it's not perfect, but I feel like it's there, at least for me.

 

 

[Callaphera]

Slap a hat on him and he looks like he's an older Mike Boogie.

[Rachel RSL]

40 minutes ago, simplyme said:

Also... I'm really the only person to see Christopher Walken in Kevin? I admit it's not perfect, but I feel like it's there, at least for me.

I definitely see it too. And I definitely don't see Mike Boogie. *shudder*

[mojoween]

I'm so fruuuuuuustrated because the stupid Bills are on again tonight so I can't watch until tomorrow.  Which means I also have to go on Twitter blackout starting at nine tonight grr.

I'm not Christian so I have to ask...is it normal for Catholics to cross themselves whenever they do anything?  

[LoneHaranguer]

7 hours ago, ghoulina said:

Surely Matt is at least 30? (And I don't just say that because of the grey hair.) You'd think by that point his hormones would have calmed down enough that he wouldn't need to resort to hitching his ride to uber annoying Raven all season just to get his rocks off. 

Nothing says he doesn't have other motives. If Raven is depending on him to scratch her itch, he can count on her in the game the way Cody could with Jess,.

[Halting Hex]

5 hours ago, Nashville said:

[A successful backstab] would absolutely require one of the hardcore Paulettes - Matt, Raven, Christmas, or Josh - to go turncoat and nominate Paul/Alex (first choice) or Paul/Josh (second choice).

Yes, but I can't see Matt making that move (if he wanted to go against "the team", he would have used the Veto on himself, saved Cody, and rebuilt the Couples Alliance…and even then he would have needed to sway Kevin to keep Elena over Jason to cripple Paul/Alex), and given that Raven might not support Matt in rebellion, I surely can't see her doing it on her own.

Josh passed on his chance to do this two weeks ago…is #YerNewBoy going to send Paul to Jury, and risk YerBoyClassic's revenge in the F2 vote, when he could have kept BobbleBeard out of the Jury, entirely? Can't see it.

Which just leaves Christmas.  But she thinks she's in better with Paul than she actually is, so unless she hears him making plans with Alex to evict her, it doesn't seem too likely.

And, as you noted, all this depends on Kevin voting with the HoH, which is hardly a given.  He's been completely obedient thus far.

Although if Kevin won HoH…nope, it doesn't work because Kevin doesn't have a "partner" he can rely on as the fourth vote, to go with Mark/Elena/the pawn's SO.  As long as Paul only needs two of the three pairs (Matt/Raven, Alex/Jason, Josh/Xmas) to support him, he's bulletproof.

Gah.

Edited August 18, 2017 by Halting Hex

[Blissfool]

4 hours ago, simplyme said:

Does Kevin have a Christopher Walken vibe or is that just me?

It was mentioned on this board at the start of the season. I agree.

 

1 hour ago, mojoween said:

I'm not Christian so I have to ask...is it normal for Catholics to cross themselves whenever they do anything?  

Not normal. Not expected. But it makes some feel better when their encountering an "obstacle."

Personally, I've done the sign of the cross  when I'm in heavy traffic or about to go down a roller coaster. Just makes me feel a little extra protected. But, to each their own.