Speculation Without Spoilers Theories

[hellmouse]

A thought about Elizabeth's plan with Don. Maybe she's going to up the stakes by saying she's pregnant. She could have a conversation with Young Hee, in Don's hearing, where she says that she had a one-night stand with a married guy and now she is pregnant and she doesn't know what to do. Then she looks meaningfully at Don. 

I don't know - it would certainly be a more substantial threat to Don than just having had sex. Maybe she gets him to suggest an abortion and she says she'll do that if he gives her Level 4 clearance codes... IDK, at that point it doesn't make as much sense. But a pregnancy would certainly be less flimsy as leverage.

[SunnyBeBe]

I like the theory about E claiming she is pregnant.  Still, to get that thing to work....it seems a stretch.

I'm also wondering about Alice and her being so pregnant when Pastor Tim goes missing.  I suppose that P & E, along with Paige could try to calm Alice down, explaining that they did nothing to harm him and that they will try to make calls to locate him.  Maybe, he became ill or lost his ID without money.  While they do this, Elizabeth makes Alice some herbal tea, that laced with something something causes her to go into labor.  They rush her to the hospital for an emergency delivery, but she has some complications, that medical staff can't handle and even the new nurse who just got assigned to that dept isn't able to save Alice.  The new baby goes to the God mother who goes to their church since Alice and Pastor Tim have no surviving family. 

Philip has gone to the parsonage and located the tape Alice described and also picked up her journal along with Pastor Tim's. I suppose the church would wait awhile before having a service, until Pastor Tim can be found.  But, if he isn't found, I suppose they would eventually get a new pastor and Paige could gradually stop attending the church.  

Of course, there is the issue whether Paige would believe that her parents did NOT have Pastor Tim abducted, despite their word.  And would she suspect they somehow caused Alice's death?  I'm not sure.  That's the only way I can see out of this, with keeping the baby alive. 

Quote

 

[hellmouse]

I wonder if they are setting up Matthew being interested in Paige. It would create such an interesting dilemma for everyone. 

It would be fascinating to have Paige ask her parents about how they met. Either one of them giving her dating advice could easily lead to a conversation where she asks about how they started dating, why they got married, etc. Would they tell her the truth or would they have a prepared story?

Would they encourage her to date Matthew because he's Stan's son and that keeps Stan favorably inclined towards the Jennings family? Or would they not want her to date Matthew because it comes too close to the honey pot schemes they've both run so many times. I don't think either one of them wants Paige to start doing that. But are they pushing her down that path if she dates Matthew?

Would Matthew ultimately end up being more loyal to Paige or to his own family, if push came to shove?

It's probably something for season 5, but I really really want to hear Philip and/or Elizabeth telling Paige about how they met. She's asked about their parents, so she's imagining them as children. Soon she will imagine them as teenagers, which could lead to so many uncomfortable thoughts for all involved. We know Philip fell in love with Elizabeth long before she loved him back. I can't imagine them enjoying revisiting that time.

Edited May 20, 2016 by hellmouse

[sistermagpie]

6 minutes ago, hellmouse said:

Would they encourage her to date Matthew because he's Stan's son and that keeps Stan favorably inclined towards the Jennings family? Or would they not want her to date Matthew because it comes too close to the honey pot schemes they've both run so many times. I don't think either one of them wants Paige to start doing that. But are they pushing her down that path if she dates Matthew?

I would bet both of them would treat it the way they treat Henry hanging out with Stan. It's strictly personal and Paige's business. If she wants to repeat things Matthew shouldn't have told her, which Stan shouldn't have told him, well, that's no different than Philip with Stan anyway.

Of course, once she's in the relationship if there was any thing she could do to protect the family they'd probably want her to do that thing, but it's not like Matthew is in any way a target for them. They don't spy on Stan and they've already got plenty of access to him--more so than Matthew himself.

9 minutes ago, hellmouse said:

Would Matthew ultimately end up being more loyal to Paige or to his own family, if push came to shove?

I can't see how it would ever really get that melodramatic too quickly. Paige isn't KGB and Matthew isn't FBI. If Paige decided to work with her parents that would be a conflict within herself if Matthew wanted to date her, I imagine. It would be a real character change for her to actually want to date somebody if she felt like she was actively working against his father. So as a conflict, I think, more than a honeytrap.

10 minutes ago, hellmouse said:

We know Philip fell in love with Elizabeth long before she loved him back. I can't imagine them enjoying revisiting that time.

I could totally imagine them talking about it in a way that sounded normal, though. Like they could say they met as teenagers because they were both working to do some kind of espionage work, a few years later they came over as a married couple. The more interesting stuff to Paige might be the idea that Philip loved her first, or even that the nature of the relationship changed after working together. I don't think Elizabeth would flat-out lie about always being in love with Philip. She'd probably want to explain that these things are complicated and it's not just a case of being in love or not. Lots of people get married for less than romantic reasons.

[Totale]

I left my last Speculation without Spoilers speculation in an episode thread because I didn't notice this thread was here.  My speculation (that Martha never made it to Cuba but suicided herself and the pilot) hasn't been debunked yet.

My speculation following this episode is that Alice will die in childbirth. 

Edited May 20, 2016 by Totale

[spritz]

7 hours ago, sistermagpie said:

I would bet both of them would treat it the way they treat Henry hanging out with Stan. It's strictly personal and Paige's business. If she wants to repeat things Matthew shouldn't have told her, which Stan shouldn't have told him, well, that's no different than Philip with Stan anyway.

Of course, once she's in the relationship if there was any thing she could do to protect the family they'd probably want her to do that thing, but it's not like Matthew is in any way a target for them. They don't spy on Stan and they've already got plenty of access to him--more so than Matthew himself.

I can't see how it would ever really get that melodramatic too quickly. Paige isn't KGB and Matthew isn't FBI. If Paige decided to work with her parents that would be a conflict within herself if Matthew wanted to date her, I imagine. It would be a real character change for her to actually want to date somebody if she felt like she was actively working against his father. So as a conflict, I think, more than a honeytrap.

After watching the "Munchkins" episode, I got the feeling that Paige is going to wind up becoming a KGB spy afterall, just as the Center had planned. There has to be a plot twist to the Paige storyline. And Paige becoming a spy is the twist, imo.

Paige is not going to get into the family spy business for ideological reasons, but for practical reasons, that is to protect her family from getting caught by the FBI. The seeds have been planted. Paige was already working on Alice, in an attempt to get Alice's tape. Paige knows what needs to be done. 

Also, I got the impression that the fact that Pastor Tim turned out to be OK eased Paige's mind (however falsely) about her own doubts about Soviets spies. Plus, the propaganda talk that Philip and Elizabeth had with Paige about how they only work for peace and that they would never lie to her, I think, may also have somewhat eased her mind about the nature of Philip and Elizabeth's spy work.

Stan tells Matthew things about his work that he shouldn't. Matthews blabs whatever Stan tells him to Paige. Paige relays that info to her parents if she thinks that the info may lead to Stan discovering the real identity of the Jennings, so Philip and Elizabeth will constantly one step ahead of Stan as he investigates the case of Martha and Gaad. I think that is basically how the future Paige storyline is going to play out.

[sistermagpie]

7 minutes ago, spritz said:

Stan tells Matthew things about his work that he shouldn't. Matthews blabs whatever Stan tells him to Paige. Paige relays that info to her parents if she thinks that the info may lead to Stan discovering the real identity of the Jennings, so Philip and Elizabeth will constantly one step ahead of Stan as he investigates the case of Martha and Gaad. I think that is basically how the future Paige storyline is going to play out.

I think it definitely makes sense that Paige has to start moving towards being like her parents. Not necessarily because she's going to end up that way, but it's an aspect they have to explore. They've laid out things that would attract Paige to this stuff and then dropped them again in the aftermath of her finding out the truth because she was upset with her parents. She's seen them as liars and resented them for lying to her and putting her in this position, but also seems to feel secure that they love her.

I think they do have to explore Paige seeing her parents as impressive and she hasn't done that yet. She told Pastor Tim adults just get to "do whatever they want" but that's the opposite of what her parents do. They sacrificed everything for what they think was the good of others, just as she described Jesus as doing when describing why she liked him. I can't imagine that Paige would be able to see her parents actually suffering for their cause and not kind of want in on that.

[scrb]

Well Paige has a somewhat rosy or cleaned up notion of what her parents do.

Wait until Elizabeth tells her she has to seduce some guy, for the sake of protecting their identities, mother Russia and peace in the world.

Wasn't fear of herpes a big thing at this time?  And then in the mid to late '80s, people started learning about AIDS.

If Paige finds bottles of Valtrex or whatever they had back then ...

[spritz]

1 hour ago, sistermagpie said:

I think it definitely makes sense that Paige has to start moving towards being like her parents. Not necessarily because she's going to end up that way, but it's an aspect they have to explore. They've laid out things that would attract Paige to this stuff and then dropped them again in the aftermath of her finding out the truth because she was upset with her parents. She's seen them as liars and resented them for lying to her and putting her in this position, but also seems to feel secure that they love her.

Paige does seem like someone who would be attracted to the world of spycraft. Events beyond her control will probably force Paige to be drawn into her parents' stealthy world. The more that she is drawn into her parents' world, her interest and fascination with the stuff would seemingly increase. And she would inevitable become more like her parents in that regard.

8 hours ago, sistermagpie said:

I can't see how it would ever really get that melodramatic too quickly. Paige isn't KGB and Matthew isn't FBI. If Paige decided to work with her parents that would be a conflict within herself if Matthew wanted to date her, I imagine. It would be a real character change for her to actually want to date somebody if she felt like she was actively working against his father. So as a conflict, I think, more than a honeytrap.

I could see Paige dating Matthew just to get info from him. Paige isn't a total goody-two-shoes any more.

When Paige asked for beer from Matthew a few episodes back, I think that was the beginning of her transformation into someone who is becoming cynical. Paige already felt betrayed after Pastor Tim shared her secret with Alice that the Jennings are spies. Add that to the lies of her parents. I see Paige becoming a cynical teen who would use other people. Of course, she may develop real romantic feelings for Matthew as time goes on, that is, if the two actually dated. It wouldn't surprise me if before the series ended, Paige's first sexual experience will be with Matthew. Healthwise, they both appear to be clean.

[sistermagpie]

34 minutes ago, spritz said:

Paige does seem like someone who would be attracted to the world of spycraft.

I tend to think it's not the spycraft or spying she'd like--I believe her when she says she wants to be honest. I think Elizabeth is the same way. But I think she'd be very attracted to the whole "sacrificing yourself for a higher cause" idea.

 

34 minutes ago, spritz said:

I could see Paige dating Matthew just to get info from him. Paige isn't a total goody-two-shoes any more.

Really? The beer scene definitely seemed like a sign that she was ready to move into being a more normal teenager who experimented with things like beer than the queen of the church youth group dismayed by everyone's sins, but that seems very different than Paige becoming someone who enjoys manipulating people or wants to lie. Not to mention, she doesn't have to date Matthew to get information. He doesn't have much information and they're already friends. I guess they could have her go totally dark and decide to play with people just for the sake of revenge, but that sounds like a supervillain origin story more than the way the show operates.

This isn't to say that if she got together with Matthew, which she might, the spying stuff wouldn't be dragged into it. It would have to be just because Paige would have a secret she'd be keeping from Matthew, one that might affect how she reacted to him. But I think her desire to be morally righteous will stay a part of her character, just like it does with her mother. Her wanting to spy out of cynicism seems like it would set her up for failure and her parents would see that. They're not cynical people--their doubts come from a place of wanting to do right. She sees them as believing in something.

[Umbelina]

I can see the two of them bonding, falling in love, and eventually Paige torn about telling him everything, as intense as first love is?  I could see it happening, even though she's learned her lesson from the Pastor.  Both have frequently absent parents with booze and bedrooms, so they could forgo the whole back seat thing too.

[sistermagpie]

10 hours ago, Umbelina said:

I can see the two of them bonding, falling in love, and eventually Paige torn about telling him everything, as intense as first love is?  I could see it happening, even though she's learned her lesson from the Pastor.  Both have frequently absent parents with booze and bedrooms, so they could forgo the whole back seat thing too.

Yes, that seems like where she'd be at now. If she was dating him and loved him, she'd want to tell him. I guess that would at least also be different in that we wouldn't be seeing Paige once again blab. She'd be getting used to having this secret she simply keeps unless she has very good reason to let somebody else in. If she wants to talk about her relationship with her parents she needs to come up with a version that doesn't include them being spies.

The thing about her whole evolution, too, is that it's not just about spying, it's about growing up in general. Adults keep secrets and lie about things because they see longterm consequences in telling, even if they're not big serious ones. So stuff like Paige realizing it's better to not ask Alice about the tape right away doesn't have to be Paige turning into "a spy" it's Paige turning into a socially competent adult who would have the same instinct.

[Umbelina]

She wouldn't even have to tell him really.  She could just be acting weird, and if they were in love, he would know her so well that her silences could be telling.  If he ever discussed even that with his dad, and possibly combined it with a few other strange things he's been noticing since he's being with her much more?  It could be a piece Stan needs to put the puzzle together. 

Maybe Stan's little talk with Henry about the teacher wasn't so out of the blue after all?  Maybe it was to show that Stan can chill enough to relax and have easy conversations about women/girls with teenage boys?  So he and his son are chilling and his son is obviously bothered or thinking about something, Stan, a trained investigator, notices his son seems bothered by something, begins to get his son to open up, he already knows his kid is falling in love with the nice girl next door...  There is an age difference though, and Stan, the lawman, may be thinking more about the Statutory Rape charges his son could face, but the conversation takes a different turn?

All Stan would need is the right puzzle piece, and his suspicion of the Jennings would go right back to where he was when his wife told him to quit looking for bad guys everywhere now that he was finally home.  In addition, I think Gaad's death is going to put Stan into over-drive spy mode. 

 

Anyway, it's a thought.

[SunnyBeBe]

I am intrigued about the idea that Alice dies in childbirth, Total.  Oh my...that would be a new dynamic in the situation.  

I have thought they are playing the Matthew/Paige in love angle for the last few episodes.  If Paige was not so dangerous with her mouth, it could work well for a protective measure. If Matthew and Paige date, attend college, marry, have kids.....it could be more complicated if Stan were to ever get too interested in who Paige's parents are. Would he dare turn in his DIL's parents?  ???  Matthew would likely not like it.  

I would feel safer with Paige moving to Siberia.  lol

Long range goal plans, Henry attends college, then FBI Academy and goes to work right under Stan's supervision in his office.  The kick is that Henry has been recruited by the Center.  They would have to move fast on the time jump, as 1991 is fast approaching.  What happens to the Soviet spies left in USA after the collapse of the Soviet Union?   

[sistermagpie]

I wonder how Matthew's matured over the years. At this point it almost just seems like...why would Paige really like him? Just that he's right there? Unless he's become more sensitive or something with the divorce or whatever. (He doesn't seem to use his time at Stan's to get up to anything with other kids his own age.) I just mean up until now there's never been anything about Matthew and Paige that made them too right for each other. He just was the boy she knew. Now he seems interested in her, but is it because they have anything in common? Or just that she's pretty and has a burdened air? In the last ep she brought the conversation to a serious place asking about the FBI and talking about losing sleep over Pastor Tim and he kind of had to respond in kind with his story about what his dad said, but I've no idea if he's like Paige in general.

[Umbelina]

Well, they live in the same neighborhood, presumably know many of the same people, went to the same school although at different times, and both of their parents are absent A LOT, and by the way, both spies.

I think they have quite a bit in common really.

[SunnyBeBe]

4 minutes ago, Umbelina said:

Well, they live in the same neighborhood, presumably know many of the same people, went to the same school although at different times, and both of their parents are absent A LOT, and by the way, both spies.

I think they have quite a bit in common really.

I think that Matthew is rather cute.  I can see how I would have been attracted to him when I was a young girl.  The way he made that comment about her drinking coffee ( I can't recall exactly what it was, but.....I would have liked it).

[sistermagpie]

58 minutes ago, Umbelina said:

Well, they live in the same neighborhood, presumably know many of the same people, went to the same school although at different times, and both of their parents are absent A LOT, and by the way, both spies.

I think they have quite a bit in common really.

That's really not a lot in common. Latchkey kids aren't unusual in the 80s, and Matthew actually lives with his mom who isn't absent a lot while Paige's parents are still married and have been home a lot more in the past 7 months. When we knew about Matthew's interests he liked playing in a rock band, Animal House and Rocky Horror. Paige spends every waking minute in her youth group or studying the Bible or protesting.

Of course, Matthew doesn't have much of a personality at the moment and he seems already willing to follow Paige where she wants to go and be interested in whatever she's interested in to a degree. Her tragic air and heavy thoughts about death and life might be very intriguing to Matthew so I get why he likes her. She doesn't need any special reason to be interested in him--the mere fact that he listens to her without having much bias (like a youth group kid might) is enough to start them going out. But it doesn't seem like there's anything that makes them a better match than, say, Paige and any other random kid in her class who has reason to resent their parents.

[Umbelina]

True, but I suspect Paige's attraction to Bible Study and the Pastors could have run it's course by now if she wasn't required to continue doing it.

Teenagers try things on, get bored, or move on, it's just part of growing up.

I do think she has a lot in common with Mathew though (every time I read that name I immediately think of the actor playing Philip, it's driving me nuts!  ha.)  He only recently moved out of the neighborhood, after Stan got divorced, he was living their while the Jennings' were, just alone with his mom while Stan was embedded.  Anyway, I don't think teens really need to have a bunch in common to be attracted to each other.  She KNOWS him though, and he knows her, even if distantly and through their dads or her brother.  It's not weird to be together in that whole "first date" way.

[sistermagpie]

2 minutes ago, Umbelina said:

He only recently moved out of the neighborhood, after Stan got divorced, he was living their while the Jennings' were, just alone with his mom while Stan was embedded. 

He wasn't living there while Stan was embedded. The Beemans all moved in together in the pilot.

But I do agree--the two of them were friends from the start and it's not like he doesn't know her. She actually probably finds it a great relief to talk to him because he's not in the church group and she's probably sick to death of it. Plus he's friendly with Henry which she probably appreciates too. Even back in S1 Paige was asking him serious questions about his dad's job so I totally buy them liking each other as friends, and if they like each other as friends they can like each other romantically.

[Umbelina]

Duh!  Dang, totally forgot that for a moment.  Oops.

I think the dinner with the Pastors is going to raise Stan's hackles in some way though.  For one thing, they are so very pompous, and for another, they are not trained spies, so something, probably a small something, could slip or simply be off in one of their reactions.  The Jennings are trained to hide things, but the Pastors are not, and Paige is a novice.  This dinner may be pretty significant later.

Anyway, the whole thing with Mathew may not even happen, it's just speculation, but I think he's there for a reason, just like I think Henry becoming adept at the computer is significant.  Maybe Center starts doing more with the computer, or having the Jennings do more with it for some specific reason, and Henry learns something that way? 

Chekhov's computer.

[scrb]

If Alice blurts it out, she'll get herself, Tim and Stan killed.

Elizabeth has a lightning quick trigger.

[Umbelina]

I think they are smart enough not to "blurt things out" but I don't think they will be good at things like not glancing at Paige or each other at the wrong moment.  That's the kind of thing Stan would easily catch, he's a trained investigator, and though it might not bother him during dinner?  Later, it might nudge him, especially if he's in high-alert mode, which is likely after Gaad's death.

[SunnyBeBe]

Yes, I've wondered about that computer since it was introduced. I'm wondering if Paige will put something about her secret on it and later it's discovered by Henry and/or Matthew, who's helping Henry out with it.

So, if Stan gets a funky vibe at dinner, I wonder if he'll think it's the Jennings who are suspicious or Pastor Tim and Alice.  How much does Pastor Tim look like that composite photo? lol Wouldn't that be funny?  Odd couple, cover in the community, Tim recently involved in travel to Soviet linked country, etc. .........

[sistermagpie]

1 hour ago, Umbelina said:

This dinner may be pretty significant later.

I'm thinking it might even be very significant now! It would probably also make it harder yet again for them to be killed. Especially if they're obviously jumpy anyway. Also it'd be interesting to see just how much Pastor Tim enjoys/shows concern over this kind of situation. It might not even be Stan who's a problem. Maybe Pastor Tim will think it's somehow wrong if they're friends with an FBI agent and pressure them more.

27 minutes ago, SunnyBeBe said:

Yes, I've wondered about that computer since it was introduced. I'm wondering if Paige will put something about her secret on it and later it's discovered by Henry and/or Matthew, who's helping Henry out with it.

Computers don't do much in 1983. Paige putting something about her parents' secret on it is like her writing a diary about it and leaving it out on the table.

Personally, I think it would make just as much sense for the computer to mean nothing other than Henry is a 1983 kid. Gabriel's right that computers are the future. Philip's already dealt with them in his work. It might just be symbolic of that change. Philip was fighting the idea of video games in S2, now Henry's got hand held games and a computer on which he plays games. I do wonder if he's doing actual coding anywhere, like taking computer science.

[Umbelina]

He could be teaching himself coding as well.

Either way, he's becoming proficient at the computer and his parents are still looking at it like it isn't important or is too new fangled or something they don't want to bother with.  Stan will probably be getting computer training at work, just in the normal course of duties, reports, something quite soon.

[sistermagpie]

13 minutes ago, Umbelina said:

Either way, he's becoming proficient at the computer and his parents are still looking at it like it isn't important or is too new fangled or something they don't want to bother with.  Stan will probably be getting computer training at work, just in the normal course of duties, reports, something quite soon.

Philip was reading PC Magazine in S3 and did the Arpanet thing, so I think we haven’t gotten some sign that he gets this is a thing they’re going to have to deal with. We mostly see Henry playing video games on his computer—though Paige asked about writing papers on it and printing it out at the travel agency where they also have computers so they must know some of it.

 

But it would still be cool if Henry could have some info that would help especially Philip on this sort of thing, even if it’s just him starting to understand how they can be helpful to him. In Deutchland 83 there’s that funny scene where the guy steals the info and nobody understands the “floopy disk” it’s on, then they have to struggle to find a computer in East Germany that can play an American disk.

[Umbelina]

http://www.techradar.com/us/news/computing/secrets-of-communist-computing-618217/2 

A few little tidbits about computers during the Reagan administration, specific uses in the Cold War.

[hellmouse]

1 hour ago, sistermagpie said:

I'm thinking it might even be very significant now! It would probably also make it harder yet again for them to be killed. Especially if they're obviously jumpy anyway. Also it'd be interesting to see just how much Pastor Tim enjoys/shows concern over this kind of situation. It might not even be Stan who's a problem. Maybe Pastor Tim will think it's somehow wrong if they're friends with an FBI agent and pressure them more.

 

Oh gosh, that's another possibility. Pastor Tim taking it upon himself to question why they are friends with Stan, and whether they are actually trying to use him in their spying, and whether they should or not. Sigh.

[JasonCC]

This is more wishful thinking than true speculation I'd bet on but I REALLY want Martha's handlers to have made good on their word and she'll be given a tiny apartment in Moscow and enrolled in Russian lessons. I want her to meet the sexiest Russian guy (maybe a little younger?) who possesses both a huge sexual libido and massive endowment and who has been studying English for some time. He is over-the-moon to meet a native speaker he can practice his English skills with. I want them to fuck like rabbits. I want her Russian man to have a huge, loving family he introduces her to. Even though the language barrier is difficult, the only-child, lonely, isolated Martha becomes a part of something bigger she never would have imagined. I want them to fall in love, get married, have three or four children they raise as bilingual.

Edited May 23, 2016 by JasonCC

[hellmouse]

I noticed in the scene where Arkady presumably learns about Gaad's death that Tatiana is making notes in her red folder. We've seen Oleg looking at that folder. Maybe he will take it and give it to Stan. I don't think it would contain anything specifically about Philip and Elizabeth, but it would have information about the bio warfare program. Or maybe he just reads it and tells Stan some of what he finds. 

Also in that scene, Tatiana is saying that someone has been slow to respond and maybe they shouldn't count on him. Do you think she could be talking about William? He doesn't seem terribly enthusiastic about getting information to them, but I don't see how they could just move forward without him. 

[SunnyBeBe]

I suppose it could have been William, but what about people in other places?  Were most Soviet agents near DC or were they also located in other parts of the country?

[Loandbehold]

18 hours ago, SunnyBeBe said:

I suppose it could have been William, but what about people in other places?  Were most Soviet agents near DC or were they also located in other parts of the country?

There are plenty of places that agents could be, or that the Soviets would have loved to place an agent. Remember, some of the Russian spies who were extradited back in the late aughts were in NYC. I would think agents inside defense contractors (Grumman, McDonnell Douglas), or tech and biotech firms, or even the NIH (located in Atlanta). And, if they couldn't get an agent working inside, they could try to recruit someone like Philip and Elizabeth have done.

Edited May 24, 2016 by Loandbehold
grammar

[SunnyBeBe]

I do wonder about William's credentials. He is from Russia, right?  I wonder how he passed the vetting to be where he is now.  If he's not American born, then I wonder what his paper trail looks like.

From day one, I was uncomfortable with the details that Philip shared with William.  TOO MANY, IMO.  But, Williams doesn't know how much of what he was told was true.  

And also about P & E.  How far does their background check go?  Do they have a high school lined up?  Was it one that has burned to the ground with all it's records, so no one can check on the student roster or graduates. But, still, there would be high school yearbooks in libraries.  Certainly, they could tack down other students to confirm or deny that P & E ever attended.  

And what about neighbors.  Do they have anyone lined up, besides the elderly aunt, who could confirm they really grew up as P & E?  Does P & E's cover stand up at all or would they be debunked almost immediately if investigated by the FBI?

[sistermagpie]

9 minutes ago, SunnyBeBe said:

And what about neighbors.  Do they have anyone lined up, besides the elderly aunt, who could confirm they really grew up as P & E?  Does P & E's cover stand up at all or would they be debunked almost immediately if investigated by the FBI?

I think it's definitely established that it would be debunked immediately. If they didn't check the SS#s for deaths like they did with Emmett and Leanne they certainly wouldn't show up on school records or anything. They wouldn't have anybody who could confirm they went to school with them or whatever. Plus if they were even trying to track them down the search might lead straight to the family of the dead Elizabeth and Philip. I think in "Trust Me" the fake FBI agents claimed that Philip's history was "fuzzy" pre-1965.

William's at a private lab so I guess he hasn't gone through the vetting he would get at a government lab. The Soviets are using that to their advantage as per Tatiana.

[Umbelina]

1 hour ago, SunnyBeBe said:

I do wonder about William's credentials. He is from Russia, right?  I wonder how he passed the vetting to be where he is now.  If he's not American born, then I wonder what his paper trail looks like.

From day one, I was uncomfortable with the details that Philip shared with William.  TOO MANY, IMO.  But, Williams doesn't know how much of what he was told was true.  

And also about P & E.  How far does their background check go?  Do they have a high school lined up?  Was it one that has burned to the ground with all it's records, so no one can check on the student roster or graduates. But, still, there would be high school yearbooks in libraries.  Certainly, they could tack down other students to confirm or deny that P & E ever attended.  

And what about neighbors.  Do they have anyone lined up, besides the elderly aunt, who could confirm they really grew up as P & E?  Does P & E's cover stand up at all or would they be debunked almost immediately if investigated by the FBI?

Any deep search, for example, tracking down yearbook photos would expose them.

However, I read a book recently about pre-and-cold-war spy documents techniques and they WERE surprisingly thorough.  I put some information in the "real life spy" thread here.  The guy who wrote it did all of that for the CIA, but also speaks about KGB stuff.  It's tedious but pretty thorough, and you'd be surprised what they can fake.  Medical records, yes, even superficially high school and college transcripts but not those pesky things like yearbook photos that are floating around out there in some other former student's possession, now in a local library or school archive?  They could place a doctored yearbook.  A yearbook for THEM?  Sure, no problem, with their photo included.

The CIA guy talks about Bay of Pigs and a few other disasters as well as what kind of cover he provided as requested to the CIA covert operatives.  An embedded operative would have THE most thorough job done of all.  Ditto someone visiting a dangerous area for either short or long term work.  Someone zipping down to do a hand off or pass along money?  Not so much, and he details a scary situation that developed for a couple of CIA spies with "fast and dirty" documentation, because no one expected them to be arrested, but they were.  They happened to stumble into a bigger operation from another government, and got caught up in that, totally by accident.

Before computers, many things were possible that are no longer possible. 

I would assume that both of the Jennings have plenty of "paper" (as it's referred to in the book) that would stand up to standard investigations, but it would all fall apart if anyone took a microscope to it, or even intensely double checked it.  For example, the dead people birth certificates are a huge weak spot, IF someone does the leg work to investigate those, there is no getting around that.

All of that said, many would be surprised at how good these guys were, on both sides, at producing and placing "paper" to prove that their spies were not spies.  They'd slip a disciple form into a grade school folder, or plant medical check ups, treatments at the local doctor's offices, first job records in some grocery store that has changed hands since, all kinds of things were done, the more "paper" the deeper the cover.

Edited May 24, 2016 by Umbelina

[madam magpie]

7 hours ago, Umbelina said:

Any deep search, for example, tracking down yearbook photos would expose them.

However, I read a book recently about pre-and-cold-war spy documents techniques and they WERE surprisingly thorough.  I put some information in the "real life spy" thread here.  The guy who wrote it did all of that for the CIA, but also speaks about KGB stuff.  It's tedious but pretty thorough, and you'd be surprised what they can fake.  Medical records, yes, even superficially high school and college transcripts but not those pesky things like yearbook photos that are floating around out there in some other former student's possession, now in a local library or school archive?  They could place a doctored yearbook.  A yearbook for THEM?  Sure, no problem, with their photo included.

The CIA guy talks about Bay of Pigs and a few other disasters as well as what kind of cover he provided as requested to the CIA covert operatives.  An embedded operative would have THE most thorough job done of all.  Ditto someone visiting a dangerous area for either short or long term work.  Someone zipping down to do a hand off or pass along money?  Not so much, and he details a scary situation that developed for a couple of CIA spies with "fast and dirty" documentation, because no one expected them to be arrested, but they were.  They happened to stumble into a bigger operation from another government, and got caught up in that, totally by accident.

Before computers, many things were possible that are no longer possible. 

I would assume that both of the Jennings have plenty of "paper" (as it's referred to in the book) that would stand up to standard investigations, but it would all fall apart if anyone took a microscope to it, or even intensely double checked it.  For example, the dead people birth certificates are a huge weak spot, IF someone does the leg work to investigate those, there is no getting around that.

All of that said, many would be surprised at how good these guys were, on both sides, at producing and placing "paper" to prove that their spies were not spies.  They'd slip a disciple form into a grade school folder, or plant medical check ups, treatments at the local doctor's offices, first job records in some grocery store that has changed hands since, all kinds of things were done, the more "paper" the deeper the cover.

What's the title of this book? It sounds great!

[Umbelina]

49 minutes ago, madam magpie said:

What's the title of this book? It sounds great!

I just copy pasted from my posts in the Real Spy thread here.  I eventually read it all and probably updated a bit in that thread.  It WAS fascinating, but also quite dry and boring for long stretches.  Anyway here are two of my posts from over there.  It's hard to find, but if you search Better World Books or another used book site, you may find a copy.

Begin copy paste:

My book just arrived from Better World Books, it's huge.  Spycraft: The Secret History of the CIA's Spytechs  https://www.sciencenews.org/article/book-review-spycraft-secret-history-cia%E2%80%99s-spytechs-communism-al-qaeda-robert-wallace-and-h

 

I was thumbing through that book last night, and sure enough, pen bugs, and pen cameras were in there, including photos of some real ones through the decades.

 

I see why I didn't have to pay the $100 for the book.  This copy has tons of underlining, and most of that is in really weird places, a few random words several times in paragraphs.  Made me think of spies actually.  Ha.  It's annoying as hell.

 

The book focuses on technical services, the people behind the scenes who build the furniture, clothing, bugs, "rocks" for concealing things like bugs, tapes, microdots, and produced the paper, passports, visas, entry stamps, faked airline travel etc. for various covers.  Basically, everything it took for a spy to do their jobs.  I'm pretty shocked at how advanced (and tiny) many things were very early on.  So it covers the entire CIA period from the 40's to almost present day, and gets into details about some specific operations and ways things were used or transported in various countries. 

 

Frankly, I'd be shocked if the writers of The Americans don't have a well used copy or two of this book.  Really.  The whole Zenaida escape in the box is practically torn from this book (but the book goes into specifics.)  Once, a Mercedes gas tank was modified to hold a man escaping from an Eastern Block country...an op that went bad, which they detail.

 

They showed "simple" disguises and again, it was very much like this show, basically that embedded spies all had about a dozen different ones to use at all times, if simply to not be recognized by a neighbor.  The one thing I noticed in the show that isn't being used, but really was (as I already knew from other reading) is TEETH.  As Robert Baer said in one of his books, with disguise, you tend to go for something memorable that distracts you from observing other features, clunky glasses, or unusual teeth (crooked, or larger, or missing/decayed/whatever.)

 

I will end up reading it all.  I did read the last few chapters from start to finish.  They did an EXCELLENT job of explaining why almost none of the previous work can work now, in the age of google and computers.  The electronic footprint is much harder to fake than a passport.  Basically explaining why computers are now the key to everything and most spy work.  I found that interesting because Robert Baer (former op agent for the CIA) really feels that our intelligence network is completely out of the loop now because it's all computers and techs now, and there are almost no agents on the ground.  He strongly feels that the person to person bonds are the heart and soul of intelligence work, and without them we are fucked.  This book explains very well why it's much harder now to place those agents, and also how relatively easy it is now (with computers) to pass on information that used to involve dead drops and other tradition spy techniques.  Now just sign up for a trial ISP, send a photo with the data imbedded in an eyelash of one of the people and call it a day, dump the computer, or use a removable flash to boot up, and throw that in a fireplace...

 

Very interesting.  I recommend it if you are into the tech stuff of the past.  Obviously the CIA isn't going to go into detail about their computer skills, but the book at least shows how massive and almost impossible that job is.

 

ETA

Oh! 

 

I forgot to mention, they also talk about vetting assets and spies, and the various tests they used to do that.  People like Philip and Elizabeth are referred to as Operations Officers, and they recruits spies or assets (like Martha, etc.)  Martha fit the bill of disgruntled employee and liable to fall for a "honey trap" with Philip as the "honey."  The process is fascinating, and they also used undercover psychologists to vet possible spies or assets to use.  One example they give is a guy they were thinking of recruiting who frequented a certain bar, and liked blonds.  So the tech team dressed her up, gave her a wig and other disguising objects/outfit/make up/made her eyes blue, etc.  She did the assessment profile while pretending to let him pick her up.  She wasn't a field agent, and normally did her work in an office at Langley.

Edited May 25, 2016 by Umbelina
a d is not an l

[madam magpie]

Interesting! I'll look for it. (I don't know how I missed that post, but I didn't see it.) FYI: The spy museum in Washington DC has some really cool gadgets too. They even have one of those umbrellas that stabs someone in the foot and kills him with poison!

[Umbelina]

I think I went into more detail when I read more over there.  1st page.  It's kind of a tedious book really, but did have some good information.  Let me know if you find a copy.

[CarpeDiem54]

You can get it on Amazon.  They even have a Kindle edition.

http://smile.amazon.com/Spycraft-History-Spytechs-Communism-Al-Qaeda/dp/0452295475?ie=UTF8&qid=1464150169&ref_=tmm_pap_title_0&sr=8-1

[Umbelina]

Cool, maybe this show made them re-order it!  It wasn't available for that price when I bought it.  Yeah, I kind of bought it to learn about the gadgets but the paper stuff ended up being almost more interesting.  Creating identities, disguises, etc.

Edited May 25, 2016 by Umbelina

[SunnyBeBe]

That information about creating a cover is fascinating.  I suppose that with years to plan it out, it could be done.  

With such a big project like P & E and the character of Clarke, I would think they might have put more thought into it. For example, Clarke was discovered to be using a dead man's birth certificate and identity.  Why didn't they find someone who WAS NOT DEAD?  I would think that it would not be too horribly difficult to find a live person, such as a homeless person, drifter with no surviving family members, etc., and take them out.  No one would know to report them missing.  No death certificate, no body or grave.  And if they have never been fingerprinted who's to say it's not them?  A check with DMV could show if they were photographed.  That could be destroyed for the right price.  Clarke could have started using their social security number.  Just a thought.   

[sistermagpie]

1 hour ago, SunnyBeBe said:

With such a big project like P & E and the character of Clarke, I would think they might have put more thought into it. For example, Clarke was discovered to be using a dead man's birth certificate and identity.  Why didn't they find someone who WAS NOT DEAD?

I think it's safer to go with somebody long dead. Live people have people that know them or knew them and actual histories you have to deal with even if they wound up homeless. Plus in the real world they try to avoid killing people.

[Umbelina]

It didn't take years.  It did take a large group of specialized people doing their job, different levels of effort for different levels of cover.  Now, with cover like the Jennings, it would probably also involve break in teams to "create" cover with what they called "paper" in the book.  For example, send a B&E team to an older or deceased doctor's fairly unprotected office and insert old medical files, possibly substitute yearbooks in the local library or school's copy (which would be incredibly easy to do.)  Stuff like that, the more "paper" the deeper the cover, it was the little details that would give you away or make someone believe you pre-computer and instant communication days. 

The KGB had amazing break in teams according to Robert Baer, former CIA dude who has written a few books, and did some great commentary on the DVD RED.  He basically said there was absolutely almost no facility they could not breach, and that most were bald because they used a radioactive substance in some of their work.

The book is very, very rosy about the good old USA, and obviously doesn't EVER paint us as doing any morally wrong things, so you kind of read it with rolled eyes at times.  They do go into a few disasters in Cuba though.  So assassin CIA orders or ops aren't mentioned, etc.

Edited May 25, 2016 by Umbelina

[Umbelina]

 

Wonder what Oleg gave Stan?

Why is she wearing the blond wig again?

Is that Chekhov's gun?

Edited May 26, 2016 by Umbelina

[sistermagpie]

7 hours ago, Umbelina said:

Why is she wearing the blond wig again?

Pretty sure that was an old clip from this ep. As is the clip of Philip fiddling with Chekhov's Martha's gun.

Edited May 26, 2016 by sistermagpie

[madam magpie]

Oh yay! That scene makes it look more like Paige is less mopey about the mugger and more intrigued. Makes me smile because I read an interview with Holly Taylor where she said she was so excited to find out back in season two that the KGB wanted to recruit Paige because she'd finally get to be a secret spy too! Apparently both kids (the actors) started asking almost immediately when their characters would be inducted into the KGB and get to go on spy missions.

[hellmouse]

It's slightly hilarious how many groceries they have in front of Keri Russell in that kitchen scene. If the season went on much longer they'd soon only show her behind bushes or in a bubble bath. 

That's the only hilarious thing. The rest is tense. I can't wait.

[Inquisitionist]

I'm curious about the upcoming title A Roy Rogers in Franconia.  Franconia is about 20 minutes away from Falls Church, where I think the Jennings family is supposed to live.  Franconia has a U.S. Coast Guard base.  It also currently has a Roy Rogers in a strip mall.  I wonder if that was its location in 1983 as well.