S31: Ciera Eastin

[Ms Blue Jay]

Small women absolutely can win Survivor. Just look at Sandra. But there will always be players like Andrew who categorically cannot respect someone like Sandra. Jeremy doesn't enter the game with that disadvantage.

 

I see what you're saying.  Alpha males have the advantage that they are attractive to people who like Alpha Males, like Andrew.  They have the disadvantage that they're targets.  Jeremy is trying as hard as he can to downplay this.  Joe is not doing absolutely anything to downplay this.

 

Small women have the disadvantage and the advantage that people dismiss them, don't notice them, or underestimate them.  I guess I see that Ciera is trying to flip this perception.   I also see that she is probably getting in people's heads, like Spencer.  We'll see what happens.

Edited November 13, 2015 by Ms Blue Jay

[Zuleikha]

The "broliance" is Jeremy, Tasha, Savage, Joe. That was what we were shown at the beginning of the game.

Just to go back to the semantics of this for a second, what we were shown in the beginning of the game was the alpha alliance. As we were shown it, that also included Keith.

The Brolliance is not referring to the alpha alliance. The alpha alliance is a suballiance within the Brolliance and is what Ciera (completely accurately) called out. Her whole goal is to get the bottom members of the Brolliance to see that the alpha alliance exists and that if they want to make it to FTC, they need to make a move and take it out while they have the numbers to do so. I don't think she's blowing up trust because she's not betraying anything by naming people. Just like Kelley, she also did not call out anyone's specific moves (remember both Stephen and Joe made specific overtures to her)

 

Is what Ciera's doing good gameplay, that's a hard question.  We won't know until she wins or loses.

 I don't believe win/lose is the determinant of good game play. She's facing an uphill battle. But I personally think her game play is good because she's doing the best she can with the information available. With the benefit of hindsight, maybe it would have been better to go along with Savage and vote out Spencer on Ta Keo. But she didn't have the knowledge of the early merge available to her. And who knows whether it would have even made a difference since Woo was loyal to Savage and not Ciera, and Savage only ever saw Ciera as a loyal stooge whose role in the game was to be used by him until he was ready to get rid of her. At least this way, she plays hard and she plays on her terms. She's not a sheep, and she's been able to strike some blows. Personally, I think that's better to do and better to watch than to be a Denise-in-China style player.

 

 

But I do not like her.  Also, it's a preference.  I'd rather play like Jeremy instead of Ciera.  Unfortunately somebody's going to point out that this is sexist probably.

I don't think anyone is criticizing disliking Ciera as sexist. I believe what's being pointed out that the way Ciera's gameplay is being dismissed is sexist and that certain specific criticisms of Ciera (by both players and fans) are being made in a gendered way. I also think most of us would rather play like Jeremy instead of Ciera. It's a lot easier for one thing! But it's not an option for many women, and as a petite-framed woman who's not afraid to share her opinions, it certainly wouldn't be an option for me any more than it is for Ciera. 

 

The name of the Broalliance is so stupid.  Isn't that minimizing Tasha and Kimmie's role?

Do we have a Gender and Survivor thread or am I showing my age and remembering an old TwoP thread? I have a response to this, but it doesn't really belong in Ciera's thread.

[JudyObscure]

MsBlueJay quote:

I really pride myself on being a feminist.  It sucks that it's extremely hard for me to dislike certain women without people pointing out how sexist that is.  It's absolutely true that I don't universally love all women on the planet.  But I also do very strongly believe in equal rights for all.  I wish we could all like or dislike somebody without somebody trying to 'dismantle that argument' by saying, "Nah, your feelings on a person are invalid because of sexism."

 

I liked this whole post but this in particular.  I was a charter member of NOW in my community and have worked hard for equal rights issues for years,, for people to imply that I'm sexist because I don't like Cierra is like the people who insist others are racist if they don't like a black reality show  contestant.  Aren't we supposed to see people as individuals?  I also resent being lumped in with "people," and the "audience," and told that I liked Hayden's speech or called other women "sheep,"  when I'm sure I didn't.

 

I know why I didn't like Cierra last time and it had nothing to do with "not doing anything."  It was the smug, self-satisfied attitude about herself and everything she did.  If Cierra reminds me of any past Survivors it's not Hayden but the quickly booted, soon forgotten, young hotheaded rednecks that the show used to cast every season. They all considered themselves great players without much evidence and tried to get other people on their side by yelling at them and calling them stupid, rather than by taking them aside one by one, and convincing them that an alliance would be to their benefit.

 

I'll never understand why a woman who's behavior follows the more traditional male lines of aggressive play  is more admired than one who plays the more traditional female game of quiet persuasion, observation and personal relationships like Cirie's and Kim's.  Either game is valid but why is the "male" game considered better somehow?   That's what seems sexist to me. 

[kikaha]

Cirie and Kim are widely considered among the very best players ever in Survivor.  Kim often is seen as THE best.  How is that considered as inferior to the male game, whatever that is? 

 

I don't believe there is anything sexist about the critiques I've seen of Ciera's play.  She screwed up strategically and socially.  She did not build a strong enough alliance; her 'big move' failed and boomeranged on her; and then she put down other players, who had not made her mistakes, and were in better positions than her.  Show me a man who behaves the same way, with the same results, but gets a pass.  I can't think of any.  For instance guys like Savage, who like Ciera is a bit full of himself, takes vicious hits for his errors. 

 

I think even Cirie and Kim would be playing Ciera's game in her position.   There's not much else you can do there.  She's scrambling.  Quiet observation isn't going to do her good.  If she was in Jeremy's shoes, sure.  

I strongly disagree.  Cirie and Kim were masters at both strategizing and manipulating other players.  No way IMO would they publicly call out half the contestants for 'not playing the game.'  Nor would they stick their necks out, in a risky move that has a dubious payoff.  Kim was almost the exact opposite: a stealth bomber who, even after she took you out, left you feeling admiration for her.  Ciera is so far out of their league, it's the difference between JV basketball and the NBA. 

[Ms Blue Jay]

I of course understand that everyone is informed by racism and sexism and other biases when liking contestants.  I just wish that it wasn't always the kneejerk reaction to statements like "I hate Kass" or "Ciera is annoying" or "Jeremy is so hot".  I have a wish that we could deal with more intelligent and nuanced discussions about this stuff rather than hurling accusations of sexism towards each other when we don't agree.  I have to deal with people really hating Woo and calling him a "fucking moron" and other things that honestly hurt my feelings a bit, haha.  But hey, everyone has players who rub them the wrong way.  Zuleikha maybe we should start a race and gender thread.

Edited November 13, 2015 by Ms Blue Jay

[Beebee111]

 

I also think most of us would rather play like Jeremy instead of Ciera. It's a lot easier for one thing! But it's not an option for many women, and as a petite-framed woman who's not afraid to share her opinions, it certainly wouldn't be an option for me any more than it is for Ciera.

 

I compeletely disagree with the assertion that the subtle, but powerful, UTR strategist game that Jeremy is playing is somehow "easier" than Ciera's current approach. It takes tremendous social skill, patience, and self-control (e.g., managing emotions when one disagrees) to wield that kind of influence. Anyone can stand up and shout their thoughts at TC. It takes real effort to actually build trusting relationships that you can rely on or influence for votes when it counts. That's why Kim, Cirie are so admired - because they were able to execute a style of play that is so difficult for others.

 

What's interesting to me is that there are parallels to real life leadership here - and there's definitely a style that IMO wins you friends and influence and one that can get you despised - even if you end up getting your way. Interestingly as JudyObscure puts it, Jeremy's perceived style is much more typically associated with how women approach leadership roles than Ciera's.

 

The only thing IMHO that Ciera could make that would justify why she is behaving as she is would be that she had exhausted all other options, and it was a Hail Mary pass.

 

 

I of course understand that everyone is informed by racism and sexism and other biases when liking contestants.

 

Agreed. I think what's frustrating is that there are many times when there is real bigotry at play and it gets a pass.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Beebee111

[Ms Blue Jay]

 I started a Race and Gender thread so we do not go off topic.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Ms Blue Jay

[peachmangosteen]

The Many Faces of Ciera Eastin 

 

I loled all over again. She has a real talent for eye rolling.

Edited November 13, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[Ms Blue Jay]

I get that Ciera is a bit annoying and I get that Andrew is annoying but it seems like these 2 just hate each other SO. Much!!!!

[viajero]

Ciera could not have had better luck in the first part of the game.  Her tribes won virtually everything.  So even though she sat out every other challenge, she never had to go to tribal, until the last one before merge.  When she finally did go to tribal, she was completely shielded.  It's hard to imagine having and easier time, of basically the entire pre-merge game. 

 

She managed to move from that position of 100% safety - free to wheel and deal, plot and scheme - to being an outcast, hanging on for dear life.  She has only herself to blame for this.  Awful, terrible play IMO.

 

And yet the others are 'playing the game' so hard, she still has a chance.  They have created enough openings, that she could go a lot deeper.    

 

Lets not forget that it was Savage who moved Cierra to the bottom of her alliance, pretty much because she was a woman that didn't kowtow to him.  This caused her to react and take out one of Savage's allies.  It was to Cierra's misfortune that the merge was moved up this season and happened in the very next episode.  Thus, we went from a situation where Cierra could have potentially entered the merge in a position of strength with her biggest enemy already gone to one where Savage used in his preexisting alliances with the bros to poison the well against her.  Of course Cierra could have played it cool right after the merge instead of being so outspoken against Savage, but I kind of doubt this would have left in her in any better shape than she currently is.

[kikaha]

Viajero, Savage was stupid to unilaterally appoint Ciera as pawn.  It's one reason (of several) I think he's unlikely to win Survivor, no matter how many times he tries.  But Ciera's reaction was even worse. 

 

All sorts of ways it could go wrong, not just early merge.  If she pulls it off, she still does not hold power over the majority of players.  She paints a huge target on her back, with tons of time left in this, the most fluid season in Survivor history, and the real power brokers still out there, gunning for her.  If she doesn't pull it off, she is almost sure to become an outcast. 

 

Terrible risk/reward ratio.  And for what?  Because her feelings got hurt.  If she'd played it cool, she had a number of episodes to arrange things to her liking.  This is the most target-rich environment ever in Survivor for doing that. 

 

To my mind, Ciera threw a fit.  She stomped her feet and said, "you can't use my name to trick Spencer.  I'll show you!"  She's continuing her childish behavior by whining that others aren't playing the game, even as the big majority of them are hatching schemes to upset the apple cart and advance further.  I think she behaved childishly in her first season as well, i.e. this is nothing new for her. 

[Zuleikha]

If she pulls it off, she still does not hold power over the majority of players.

We'll never know. It currently sounds like Savage was the primary person who pulled Joe into the Brolliance. If Savage was gone, Ta Keo 5 + Spencer/Abi may have won the showdown at merge. If they did, who says the "real power brokers" are anyone outside of the Ta Keo 5+ alliance and who says Ciera wouldn't BE one of the real power brokers. 

 

Terrible risk/reward ratio.  And for what?  Because her feelings got hurt.

No, not because her feelings got hurt. Because Savage showed her clearly that he didn't value her. She read the dynamics correctly. At most, she would have been a satellite in the greater Bayon alliance and been safe for... how long exactly? Kelley Wentworth's vote out at merge? Maybe also Kelly Wiglesworth's? And then it's just Abi/Woo left from Ta Keo, and Savage just got done talking about how tight he was with them. Bayon was going to have to fracture very soon, and Ciera and Savage weren't going to be on the same side. 

 

even as the big majority of them are hatching schemes to upset the apple cart and advance further.

What big majority? From what we've seen, Stephen wants to get out Joe. That's it. Just Joe. He plans to get out Joe and then advance with Stephen/Tasha to end game. That's not upsetting the apple cart. Joe wants to get rid of Stephen because Stephen targeted him, but Joe was so otherwise uninterested in flipping that he dropped the issue as soon as Savage was persuaded (perhaps with Savage gone, we'll see Joe more interested in flipping). Spencer actively worked with Jeremy to take the target OFF of Stephen and put it on Wentworth, so Spencer also currently seems uninterested in upsetting the apple cart. So who's left? Kimmi? Keith? Wigles? 

 

Also, she's not whining about people not playing. She's passionate and factual. 

[violet and green]

I think even Cirie and Kim would be playing Ciera's game in her position.   There's not much else you can do there.  She's scrambling.  Quiet observation isn't going to do her good.  If she was in Jeremy's shoes, sure.  

 

I very much doubt either of them would've been intemperate enough to get themselves into her position.

[KimberStormer]

All sorts of ways it could go wrong, not just early merge.  If she pulls it off, she still does not hold power over the majority of players.  She paints a huge target on her back, with tons of time left in this, the most fluid season in Survivor history, and the real power brokers still out there, gunning for her.  If she doesn't pull it off, she is almost sure to become an outcast. 

 

Terrible risk/reward ratio.  And for what?  Because her feelings got hurt.  If she'd played it cool, she had a number of episodes to arrange things to her liking.  This is the most target-rich environment ever in Survivor for doing that. 

 

Can you explain why you think proactively voting out Woo was so disastrous for Ciera, but proactively voting out Monica was a great, sensible move for Kimmi?

 

Ciera is no Cirie, of course, but who is?  Anyway, Cirie knows the value of putting your foot down, browbeating people, and putting yourself out there at tribal when it's the right move for her.  She had a very heated confrontation with Penner at tribal when she wanted Yau-Man out in Micronesia.  I dare not mention that it was much earlier than this point in that game, because I assume that the argument will shift from "it's too early" to "well of course it's OK to do that so early in the game".

[kikaha]

Can you explain why you think proactively voting out Woo was so disastrous for Ciera, but proactively voting out Monica was a great, sensible move for Kimmi?

 

Sure.  Kimmi built a position of strength, with the season's power players.  This will probably help carry her deep into this season.  Ciera undermined her position with the power players.  She knowingly did this, making a high-risk move that was sure to antagonize the people running the season.     

 

Cirie and Yau: when Cirie took out Yau, she got the backing of the most powerful players in the game.  She was acting from a position of strength.  Again, for Ciera the opposite was true.  She staged a mini-rebellion, when she was under-armed, not prepared for the fallout.   

 

Zuleikha -- you and I just don't see eye to eye on this.  I think Ciera jumped the gun, in an ill-advised move that could go wrong in lots of ways.  In fact it did go wrong, torpedoing herself and her allies.  She already lost one of her key allies, and is incredibly lucky to not have lost another, or even still be playing herself. 

 

Even if you are right about her standing in Bayon (which I don't necessarily agree with), by your own reckoning she had several episodes to reset things.  This season that is a lifetime.  But just like earlier in the season, she did not line up her ducks.  She wanted to skip over that and make a 'big move.'  I think she behaved childishly her last season, and is doing the same this season.  I totally disagree when you say she is not whining about playing the game.  That's about all she's done the past few tribals.  It comes across to me like a tantrum, from someone who didn't get her way and now expects others to come to her aid. 

 

As for who on Bayon is playing hard, trying to manipulate things in their favor: Jeremy, Tasha, Stephen, Joe and Spencer are all plotting and scheming, both for now, the near future and the end game which they know they must set up right if they are to win the season.  Kimmi has plotted, which put her in good position to move as she sees fit.  Kelly and Keith are the only ones I see who are along for the ride. 

[peachmangosteen]

I get that Ciera is a bit annoying and I get that Andrew is annoying but it seems like these 2 just hate each other SO. Much!!!!

I find it so hilarious. I'll miss Andrew if only because we won't get to see him and Ciera hating each other anymore. Hopefully she can get some eyerolls in at TCs while he's in the jury box.

[kikaha]

I love Cirie but she was voted out in 17th place (worse than Ciera's position now) in her third season, and has never won.  I think even she would say a lot of how you do is who you're with and how the chips fall.  

 

I can see Ciera and Abi rubbed people wrong but what did Kelley do so 'intemperate' to get herself in the three on the outs?  

 

Don't you think it's more likely that those three are on the bottom simply because someone had to be and when 'bros' are making the calls with things like 'meat shields' in mind, it might just be three women who dare to play the game who get pagonged?  

 

Not to mention they actually watch the show, unlike some of the women backing the bros.  

 

They are on the bottom because they made a move against Bayon.  Ciera, who was safe for a  number of episodes, tried a palace coup that did not work.  So Kass got clipped... and Kelley saved herself (thankfully!) only with her idol play. 

 

I still think they have a chance to recover.  Plenty of distrust is circulating in Bayon.  3 votes in the right hands could flip the game once more, especially if someone  like, say, Joe could leverage those three with a few more, as he has done at least once before.  Stephen also might be able to cobble together a new alliance with them, Kelly and Keith: all of them gotta know they have better chances with each other than going up against Tasha, Jeremy and Spencer. 

[LadyChatts]

As other people have said, Ciera had no idea there was going to be an early merge.  If she had, maybe she would have shut up and just gone along with being Andrew's pawn.  Yet, Woo likely would hold the spot Spencer is in now.  Andrew likes Abi and speaks highly of her, yet she was one of the people placed on the bottom once the tribes merged.  Whether or not Ciera and Kass kept Woo or not, I think the same would have been said for them.  Tasha held a grudge against Kass and even though Kass tried to extend and olive branch, Tasha wanted nothing to do with it.  She was an easy first vote to get rid of.  Why Wentworth suddenly took her place, after voting with the group last week, I don't know (other than being deemed a threat).  I'm actually surprised that tribal lines are still so intact and people seem be wanting to keep them together.  That's kind of rare for an AS season.  Anyway back to Ciera, she may have felt the security of at least being with Bayon or hoping that she had an alliance still with her Ta'Keo 5 that offered protection.  I think no matter what she was finding herself on the bottom, though.  If it was because she dared make a move against Andrew, that's just pettiness on his part, similar to Tasha holding this grudge against Kass.  Like I've said, I'd rather see someone doing anything and everything to stir stuff up, call people out, and try to make people see that in an alliance of 9, maybe they are going to be #9.  I'd rather see that than someone just accepting their fate and doing nothing.  The past two votes reminded me of the boring old school alliance days, when people just got Pagonged and could do nothing about it.  At least Kelley's idol play made for a great TC.  I'm hoping that's the turning point.

[303420]

Sure.  Kimmi built a position of strength, with the season's power players.  This will probably help carry her deep into this season.  Ciera undermined her position with the power players.  She knowingly did this, making a high-risk move that was sure to antagonize the people running the season.     

 

Cirie and Yau: when Cirie took out Yau, she got the backing of the most powerful players in the game.  She was acting from a position of strength.  Again, for Ciera the opposite was true.  She staged a mini-rebellion, when she was under-armed, not prepared for the fallout.

This sounds to me like an argument that moves are good when they're for the purpose of joining the power players, and bad when they're for the purpose of replacing/supplanting/weakening the power players. I can't agree with that.

[Oscirus]

I'm still wondering how marking Stephen as a power player was a good idea. Editing doesn't show us that he is, from what she's seen/heard( Joe talking about him being a target, Andrew openly targeting him etc.), he's obviously not a power player and  she was trying to work with him to boot.  Is it really a good idea to make one of the few people willing to work with you a target?

 

Also if Ciera was serious about outing said alliance, why did she wait for Jeff's prompt to do so?

[KimberStormer]

Sure.  Kimmi built a position of strength, with the season's power players.  This will probably help carry her deep into this season.  Ciera undermined her position with the power players.  She knowingly did this, making a high-risk move that was sure to antagonize the people running the season.     

 

Cirie and Yau: when Cirie took out Yau, she got the backing of the most powerful players in the game.  She was acting from a position of strength.  Again, for Ciera the opposite was true.  She staged a mini-rebellion, when she was under-armed, not prepared for the fallout.   

 

Cirie was not operating from a position of strength.  First of all, Ozzy, Parvati, and co. were not any more powerful than Penner and Eliza at that point.  Had Micronesia not been such a crazy chaos of medivacs and freakout-quits, even after this the latter group could have been in pretty good shape by the merge.  Secondly, Cirie was the swing vote.  It was four-four with Cirie in the middle.  1000% of the time that a swing vote decides to dictate the vote in defiance of either alliance, which is what Cirie did--Ozzy etc wanted to vote Eliza--the boards explode with disdain that the swing vote doesn't know her place.  Cirie very much put herself out there in a big risk to get what she wanted, when she was most vulnerable.

 

When it comes to Ciera and Kimmi, what it sounds like to me is that "Kimmi did well by playing for 5th, whereas Ciera is foolish for playing for first."  Doing what's good for Jeremy is not a good move, it is a bad move, for everyone but Jeremy.  You don't join the power players.  You take them out.  Otherwise, as Ciera says, you're not playing to win.  You know my position--Kimmi's move was incredibly bad specifically for her, and good for Jeremy.  Ciera's move to take out Woo, I don't know.  I'm not sure what the plan was.  Certainly the early merge made it worse, but I'm not sure it was the right move regardless; still, getting a good indication that you're on the bottom and doing something about it is the right idea.  Ciera's attempt to throw the Bayons off-balance with accusations about Savage didn't work and was poorly done (I still feel like it was edited together weirdly somehow) but it wasn't totally inexplicable or anything.

 

Now that she's on the bottom, though, she's fighting with everything she's got, which is again the right thing to do.  I wouldn't rate Ciera's game super-high, but certainly far above enormous numbers of passive alliance players who don't think of themselves or how they're going to get to the end, just stick with the top dogs until it's too late to do anything about it.

 

Also if Ciera was serious about outing said alliance, why did she wait for Jeff's prompt to do so?

 

Wentworth brought up the "four people", not Ciera.  She went with it when Jeff asked, to put their names out there and make people realize they weren't one of the top members.  I imagine, had it been her idea in the first place, she would only have called out the top 3, since she seemed hesitant about Stephen and Joe, and gave Jeremy an opening to undermine her point.

Edited November 14, 2015 by KimberStormer

[Oscirus]

I love Cirie but she was voted out in 17th place (worse than Ciera's position now) in her third season, and has never won.  I think even she would say a lot of how you do is who you're with and how the chips fall.

 

Cirie was idoled out as the head of her alliance which If I'm not mistaken even included an alpha male.   She was also fourth and third in her first two seasons( neither of which Ciera will likely get by the end of this season) despite not being in  a good position at the beginning of either season. She worked her way to the top, she didn't rely on the chips falling.

 

Don't you think it's more likely that those three are on the bottom simply because someone had to be and when 'bros' are making the calls with things like 'meat shields' in mind, it might just be three women who dare to play the game who get pagonged?

 

 

Or it could be that Kass screwed them over  by making a scene and causing others to defect from their group when they were in the middle of securing the needed numbers to take out a member of the other alliance at the merge. Ciera's addition to that foolishness probably didn't help matters.

 

Doing what's good for Jeremy is not a good move, it is a bad move, for everyone but Jeremy.  You don't join the power players.  You take them out.  Otherwise, as Ciera says, you're not playing to win.

 

Except Ciera was going to do the exact same thing with Andrew if he wouldn't have stuck his foot in his mouth and offered her up as a sacrifice. Are you saying she contradicted herself?

 

I don't know if you can apply the "in the bottom because of their own stupidity" to Kelley.  Or Abi, even.

 

Not to Kelley because she's been playing from a position of weakness since the game started, but definitely Abi. She jumped out of the majority.  Easily the dumbest move so far.

[violet and green]

I can see Ciera and Abi rubbed people wrong but what did Kelley do so 'intemperate' to get herself in the three on the outs?  

 

 

I was only talking about Ciera. Kelley I would class as the opposite of intemperate.

[303420]

Doing what's good for Jeremy is not a good move, it is a bad move, for everyone but Jeremy.  You don't join the power players.  You take them out.  Otherwise, as Ciera says, you're not playing to win.

 

Except Ciera was going to do the exact same thing with Andrew if he wouldn't have stuck his foot in his mouth and offered her up as a sacrifice. Are you saying she contradicted herself?

 

I'm not Kimberstormer, but I think this demonstrates exactly why Ciera's move was astute. Of course one shouldn't rock the boat if one is in a good condition, and Ciera thought she was. But when Andrew gave her up as the decoy boot, she correctly read the red flag that she wasn't in as good a position as she thought. She's now encouraging people that she thinks are on the bottom to pay attention to signs that they indeed are. Her need to move came early because she was in fact an early target.

[violet and green]

I'm not Kimberstormer, but I think this demonstrates exactly why Ciera's move was astute. Of course one shouldn't rock the boat if one is in a good condition, and Ciera thought she was. But when Andrew gave her up as the decoy boot, she correctly read the red flag that she wasn't in as good a position as she thought. She's now encouraging people that she thinks are on the bottom to pay attention to signs that they indeed are. Her need to move came early because she was in fact an early target.

 

Instead of being the putative bottom of a six person alliance (which periodically blows out to 8 or 9) she made herself the illusory head of a four person, now three person alliance - and a true target. Not wise, in my view.

[Zuleikha]

You're forgetting that at the time, Ciera had good reason to believe Keith and Joe were with her, not Andrew/Jeremy/Tasha. Due to the merge swaps and Bayon's lack of tribal councils, no one had a great way of knowing the real alliances and hierarchies on Bayon. Andrew had just been isolated on Angkor with Tasha, separate from the rest of Bayon. So it makes sense that initially Ciera/Kass would be open to working with Savage/Abi/Woo for an easy vote out of Spencer or Kelly since that didn't hurt Ta Keo 5. But then when Savage revealed his lack of respect for her, she realized that Savage was going to be an enemy and not an ally very soon. At that point, it makes much more sense to weaken Savage and build ties with Spencer (because Ta Keo 5 was going to need to pull people in). 

 

If Ciera made a bad play, it was at merge when she/Kass/Kelley lost Joe to the Brolliance. Had that gone differently, Kass would still be in the game* and Ciera's position would be much stronger. Because Joe's still in the game and not doing exit interviews, we don't know why he made the choice he did, so we don't really know if Ciera or anyone else in Ta Keo played poorly or if it was just that his bond with Savage was tighter. We do know that Joe wanted to protect Wentworth at Kimmi's expense if new new new Bayon went to TC, so it wasn't a case of Joe never intending to play with Ta Keo 5. 

 

Meanwhile, Ciera's still in the game, and there are still cracks in the Brolliance. For all we know with Savage gone, Joe and Keith are going to return to a version of Ta Keo 5, bringing Wiglesworth with them. 

 

* Unless of course they targeted Jeremy and one of them ended up idoled out.

[loki567]

Also got to point out that Ciera and Kass would have been in a really good position if there was a merge at 12 or 11, and they'd gone back to TC a few more times as Ta Keo. In fact, I think it was downright suspicious that we have "the biggest merge ever!" when Probst's good buddy, Savage, was in trouble. Things could have gone a different way. 

Edited November 15, 2015 by loki567

[KimberStormer]

Except Ciera was going to do the exact same thing with Andrew if he wouldn't have stuck his foot in his mouth and offered her up as a sacrifice. Are you saying she contradicted herself?

 

....No?  The very fact that she didn't sit down and take it when he floated her name proves she didn't give one fuck about Savage.  In fact she had just made a final 5 alliance in the previous swap tribe that didn't include him.  There is no indication whatsoever that at any time Ciera has been playing for anything but first place, that she's ever put anyone else before herself.

[Oscirus]

....No?  The very fact that she didn't sit down and take it when he floated her name proves she didn't give one fuck about Savage

 

I believe your previous statement was "you don't join power players, you take them out." It took an act of extreme stupidity from Andrew for her to make a move against him. I think we can all agree that Andrew was a power player.  If she was serious about following such a motto, she would've  targeted Andrew before he antagonized her.  Hell, she even contradicts herself about not taking the easy vote when she targetted Woo as opposed to  putting in the work to convince Abi to go along with booting the power player.

 

So which Ciera do I listen to? The one in power or the one who contradicts herself when she's at the bottom?

Edited November 15, 2015 by Oscirus

[kikaha]

Cirie was not operating from a position of strength.  First of all, Ozzy, Parvati, and co. were not any more powerful than Penner and Eliza at that point.  Had Micronesia not been such a crazy chaos of medivacs and freakout-quits, even after this the latter group could have been in pretty good shape by the merge.  Secondly, Cirie was the swing vote.  It was four-four with Cirie in the middle.  1000% of the time that a swing vote decides to dictate the vote in defiance of either alliance, which is what Cirie did--Ozzy etc wanted to vote Eliza--the boards explode with disdain that the swing vote doesn't know her place.  Cirie very much put herself out there in a big risk to get what she wanted, when she was most vulnerable.

 

When it comes to Ciera and Kimmi, what it sounds like to me is that "Kimmi did well by playing for 5th, whereas Ciera is foolish for playing for first."  Doing what's good for Jeremy is not a good move, it is a bad move, for everyone but Jeremy.  You don't join the power players.  You take them out.  Otherwise, as Ciera says, you're not playing to win.  You know my position--Kimmi's move was incredibly bad specifically for her, and good for Jeremy.  Ciera's move to take out Woo, I don't know.  I'm not sure what the plan was.  Certainly the early merge made it worse, but I'm not sure it was the right move regardless; still, getting a good indication that you're on the bottom and doing something about it is the right idea.  Ciera's attempt to throw the Bayons off-balance with accusations about Savage didn't work and was poorly done (I still feel like it was edited together weirdly somehow) but it wasn't totally inexplicable or anything.

 

Now that she's on the bottom, though, she's fighting with everything she's got, which is again the right thing to do.  I wouldn't rate Ciera's game super-high, but certainly far above enormous numbers of passive alliance players who don't think of themselves or how they're going to get to the end, just stick with the top dogs until it's too late to do anything about it.

 

 

Wentworth brought up the "four people", not Ciera.  She went with it when Jeff asked, to put their names out there and make people realize they weren't one of the top members.  I imagine, had it been her idea in the first place, she would only have called out the top 3, since she seemed hesitant about Stephen and Joe, and gave Jeremy an opening to undermine her point.

 

Kimber, I should keep my mouth shut about Micronesia, because I haven't seen it since it aired.  I re-watched HvV this year, though, and Cirie made a similar mistake there as Ciera did this season.  She stuck her neck out, way too early, in a move that even had it succeeded would not have gained her that much, and got booted.  She blew up her own game, with poor strategy. 

 

Saying Kimmi is playing for 5th while Ciera is going for the win is a false dichotomy.  Ciera could NOT win the game at F13.  But she sure could lose it there.  As it turned out, she put herself and her alliance behind the 8-ball.  Kass is gone, and Kelley would be gone except for some superlative idol work.  It's a testament to how much people on Bayon ARE playing the game that, despite this, Ciera still has a chance.  If she was right -- if no one was playing -- she'd be dead in the water, on her way to Ponderosa along with Kelley and Abi, where they would join the other member of their failed coup d'etat. 

 

 

when Savage revealed his lack of respect for her, she realized that Savage was going to be an enemy and not an ally very soon. At that point, it makes much more sense to weaken Savage and build ties with Spencer (because Ta Keo 5 was going to need to pull people in).

 

It may have made sense, if she could have taken Savage out right then.  But she couldn't, and she knew it.  So instead of (maybe) making an enemy of him in a couple of episodes, she absolutely made an enemy of him immediately.  I said 'maybe an enemy' because this season is shifting at breakneck speed.  

 

 

Meanwhile, Ciera's still in the game, and there are still cracks in the Brolliance.

 

Only dumb luck has kept her in the game.  And the second part of your statement is really my point.  There have always been those cracks.  Ciera, Kass and Abi were in excellent shape to exploit them -- quietly, from the inside, without ruffling feathers.  Instead Ciera's feelings got hurt, and she just had to make a 'big move.'  She believes that is her trademark.  It backfired bigtime on her. 

 

Based on how she's played so far (and her first season), I very much hope she does not win Second Chance.  Thanks to how much others are playing, though, it's not impossible. 

[bdestroyer88]

Kimber, I should keep my mouth shut about Micronesia, because I haven't seen it since it aired.  I re-watched HvV this year, though, and Cirie made a similar mistake there as Ciera did this season.  She stuck her neck out, way too early, in a move that even had it succeeded would not have gained her that much, and got booted.  She blew up her own game, with poor strategy. 

 

Saying Kimmi is playing for 5th while Ciera is going for the win is a false dichotomy.  Ciera could NOT win the game at F13.  But she sure could lose it there.  As it turned out, she put herself and her alliance behind the 8-ball.  Kass is gone, and Kelley would be gone except for some superlative idol work.  It's a testament to how much people on Bayon ARE playing the game that, despite this, Ciera still has a chance.  If she was right -- if no one was playing -- she'd be dead in the water, on her way to Ponderosa along with Kelley and Abi, where they would join the other member of their failed coup d'etat. 

 

 

It may have made sense, if she could have taken Savage out right then.  But she couldn't, and she knew it.  So instead of (maybe) making an enemy of him in a couple of episodes, she absolutely made an enemy of him immediately.  I said 'maybe an enemy' because this season is shifting at breakneck speed.  

 

 

Only dumb luck has kept her in the game.  And the second part of your statement is really my point.  There have always been those cracks.  Ciera, Kass and Abi were in excellent shape to exploit them -- quietly, from the inside, without ruffling feathers.  Instead Ciera's feelings got hurt, and she just had to make a 'big move.'  She believes that is her trademark.  It backfired bigtime on her. 

 

Based on how she's played so far (and her first season), I very much hope she does not win Second Chance.  Thanks to how much others are playing, though, it's not impossible. 

How is it "dumb luck" that Ciera's still in the game? Because her tribes won all the challenges? That's not dumb luck. Being on a winning tribe will happen to some people so just because you dislike her doesn't mean you can discredit her for getting through the pre-merge unscathed. Plus, she was probably safe if she went to any pre-merge tribals. She was in the majority Top 6 alliance on Original Bayon according to Savage in his exit interviews, she was in the majority on Ta Keo 2.0 , and she was in the majority on Ta Keo 3.0. The only luck she might have had is the alliance not splitting their votes last episode. If you're referring to her luck with the tribes swaps pre-merge, that's part of the game. Some people are dealt crappy hands and others are very lucky. 

[phlebas]

I believe your previous statement was "you don't join power players, you take them out." It took an act of extreme stupidity from Andrew for her to make a move against him. I think we can all agree that Andrew was a power player.  If she was serious about following such a motto, she would've  targeted Andrew before he antagonized her.  Hell, she even contradicts herself about not taking the easy vote when she targetted Woo as opposed to  putting in the work to convince Abi to go along with booting the power player.

 

So which Ciera do I listen to? The one in power or the one who contradicts herself when she's at the bottom?

Wasn't the TC where they voted Woo out the first time Ciera had been to TC at all, much less one with Savage? It's not like she had an opportunity to kick him out sooner than she did.

 

Also, before Ciera flipped it on to Woo, Savage was talking about getting rid of Spencer, who is at least perceived as a power player by many even if the facts don't support it. I don't think Ciera had a problem targeting Spencer per se, it was just that she was offered up as bait.

As for taking out Savage instead of Woo, is there anything that would make us think Abi is willing to compromise about anything ever? She had just been in an ad hoc alliance with Savage.  If you're trying to get someone like Abi to flip, giving her the choice of who to target isn't a bad move. (Woo had voted for her twice -- I don't recall if she had mentioned that...)

I think Ciera targeted power players the minute she had the opportunity to target anyone.  Woo was a compromise with Savage, Tasha was a good attempt but was doomed, and finally she got Andrew himself.  I think she's going after the stronger players tooth and claw.  In fact, there aren't many weak players left -- Kimmi maybe, though I need to see more of her game. And at the moment Abi is one of her only loyal allies (scarily enough).

I don't have a problem with how Ciera's playing, except that she has made a couple of hotheaded moves in social situations.

[Whimsy]

I started a Race and Gender thread so we do not go off topic.

It is my busy season at work so I missed this, but this thread as been deleted. When this topic was asked for last year it was determined that we would not allow this type of topic.

As this is off topic for this thread, please direct any responses you may have to a PM to me and cooksdelight.

Thanks and happy posting!

[kikaha]

I don't get the impression Ciera feels that the "big move" is her trademark.  I think she feels like if she's going to go out, she'd much rather attempt a big move or three before it happens. 

 

The only reason she was/is at risk of going out was because she tried to make a big move.  She dug the hole she found herself in; and then dug it even deeper when she tried to claim in front of everyone that Savage had betrayed his alliance. 

[peachmangosteen]

I think we can all agree that Andrew was a power player.

 

TBH I don't really agree. Andrew wasn't making any real decisions and had virtually no influence on anybody except maybe Joe. But he was a power player in the sense that he was a loyal vote for the biggest power player (Jeremy) and a very loyal vote for the biggest threat overall (Joe). But with the info the players have I can definitely see why Andrew appears to be the defacto power player in the game and I don't think Ciera et al. are stupid or blind to not see that it's really Jeremy because Jeremy is playing very well and hiding it.

 

I don't get the impression Ciera feels that the "big move" is her trademark.  I think she feels like if she's going to go out, she'd much rather attempt a big move or three before it happens.  Which is really how they all should feel.  

 

I don't even think trying to lure the bottom people from a majority alliance is a big move.  That's just how you play.  Saying it aloud in tribal isn't exactly revolutionary, especially if you're not making headway outside of tribal.  May as well let Jeff and the viewers in on your frustration.  He does sometimes agree with people and that could possibly sway someone on the fence for next time.  If nothing else, it probably minimizes the chance of being edited as a sheep who sat back clueless until slaughter.

 

+1. I don't think Ciera's so much worried about making big moves as she is just not willing to play a passive game where she does nothing but ride an alliance until they cut her. 

Edited November 15, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[kikaha]

So you think she was fine when Andrew threw her name out as the decoy?  You think she was in the power alliance's inner circle then and would've been better off than she is now by just keeping her mouth shut?

1000% she would have been better off.

 

1,000,000%.

 

She could have operated quietly, without triggering alarm bells.  Things were shifting so fast -- things have shifted so fast this entire season -- she would have found opportunities ripe for the picking.   

 

IF she could operate like that.  I'm not convinced she can.  She doesn't appear to have done enough the first part of the season, to lay the foundation for a solid post-merge game.  She wasn't pressured at all then.  But it doesn't look like she was 'playing the game.'  We only hear and see that from her when she gets in trouble -- trouble she created for herself.  

 

I just saw a video interview of Ciera, right after BvW.  She said you have to make big moves in Survivor.  And of course she got lots of applause that season for her big moves.  Even though I don't agree -- I feel she did not make big moves; or rather that she was a pawn whose moves were choreographed by others -- pretty clear to me she believes big moves are how you go far in this game.   

Edited November 15, 2015 by kikaha

[Oholibamah]

[loki567]

I don't know how in the world you can criticize Ciera for being a pawn in BvW, then in the next breath criticize her for making a move that was about shoring up her position in the game and talk about how she should have done nothing except be a number in the majority alliance until the "right time." When was the right time? Where is she going to find room to maneuver considering the social bonds of the merged tribe? 

 

I don't want to call Ciera (or Kass/Abi) a great player, but great players like a BR, Kim, Tony, recognize there's a time to make an aggressive move to further yourself. They've all pissed people off in the course of the game and decided the risk was worth the reward. 

 

I think getting rid of Woo and keeping Spencer was absolutely understandable and the only reason it came undone is because Probst's buddy was in trouble and magically the producers decided to merge early. 

Edited November 15, 2015 by loki567

[peachmangosteen]

Things were shifting so fast -- things have shifted so fast this entire season -- she would have found opportunities ripe for the picking.   

 

I feel like with how the post-merge (and even the pre-merge) votes have gone this is actually not true. Sure, there's been some people thinking about doing something different, but so far the Bayon alliance (i.e. their leader, Jeremy) has decided who will go and everyone else followed suit. If Ciera hadn't gotten Woo out she'd probably already be gone imo because Woo would've just been one more person that would have not even considered going against Andrew and co. At least by keeping Spencer there's someone who Ciera and co. might be able to get to flip soon.

 

I think that in actuality Ciera was always going to be screwed because she was expendable to the Bayon alliance and because Joe is too passive to make a move against them, so therefore the Te Keo 5 thing was never going to get off the ground. And then Andrew made it abundantly clear to her that she was fucked so she made a move and continues to make moves to better her position. I just can't find fault in that. It's debatable whether every move she made was good/the right move (I think some were, some weren't), but at least she's trying and not just sitting back thinking that getting to F5 is good enough or thinking that she can somehow better her position when they get that far into the game, like Kelly, Kimmi, Keith, and hell even Spencer and Joe are doing.

[loki567]

 

I don't think they can pull of an early merge.  That would involve re-doing the challenges that were set up for tribes to be for individual immunity.  Those things are manufactured well in advance.

 

I don't know about that. This week's reward challenge felt it was re-purposed from a tribe immunity challenge. And the first two individual immunity challenges look incredibly easy to put together. I think they have their tricks to merge when they want to merge and make up the time somehow. 

[KimberStormer]

I believe your previous statement was "you don't join power players, you take them out." It took an act of extreme stupidity from Andrew for her to make a move against him. I think we can all agree that Andrew was a power player.  If she was serious about following such a motto, she would've  targeted Andrew before he antagonized her.  Hell, she even contradicts herself about not taking the easy vote when she targetted Woo as opposed to  putting in the work to convince Abi to go along with booting the power player.

 

So which Ciera do I listen to? The one in power or the one who contradicts herself when she's at the bottom?

 

My previous statement, not hers.  Ciera isn't answerable to my opinions.  I'm not the boss of her!  I'm not seeing the contradiction.  She already, as I say, had joined another alliance and flipped on Andrew.  Using him for a vote, in weird "we swapped the tribes again for one episode just to fuck with you" circumstances, is not exactly the same thing as voting out a close ally just to help him.  (My statement was in response to the idea that Kimmi made a great move because it "built a position of strength with the season's power players", which is a terrible, terrible reason to make a move, and anyway she was already in an alliance with these power players!)  Nothing wrong with taking out Spencer when he's a social and physical threat and strategic swing-vote who has a long-running feud with your closest ally Kass.  Certainly nothing wrong with drawing him in instead when you've determined that's not a good idea for you after all.

Edited November 15, 2015 by KimberStormer

[Zuleikha]

The only reason she was/is at risk of going out was because she tried to make a big move.  She dug the hole she found herself in; and then dug it even deeper when she tried to claim in front of everyone that Savage had betrayed his alliance.

 

I think this is the crux of the disagreement. You seem to believe Ciera would have been fine if she had just laid low and done what Savage wanted. I and many others don't. Since no one can see into alternate universes, there's no good way to resolve this. But I am curious how you think the votes would have gone because what I see happening does not have Ciera safe. It has merge happening with Ta Keo 5 having no one to even try to pull in (because Spencer is now gone, Woo was always solidly with Savage, and Ciera/Kass passed on the opportunity to build specific bonds with Abi). Jeremy/Savage/Tasha are now reunited and have Woo, Stephen, and Kimmi locked in as satellites. Wigles almost certainly will be as well because she has no playing history with anyone in Ta Keo 5. So now the swings are Joe/Abi instead of Joe/Spencer, except this time Abi has no reason to have any friction with Savage/Tasha or bonds to Kass/Ciera so it's very likely Abi stays with the numbers especially because there's no reason for Joe to stay with Ta Keo 5 this time either.

 

Kass/Ciera could lay low and possibly be part of the majority alliance to vote out Kelley Wentworth (twice, since she'd presumably idol out someone at the merge vote, but that vote would probably have still been split, so she probably just idols out Keith), but then what? What's their path to winning? They're working with the same people who have so far refused to fragment to try and take out Jeremy/Savage/Tasha. Is Stephen going to flip Abi/Kimmi/Woo? Is Joe? Is Keith? Wigles? It seems more likely to me that Kass/Ciera/Keith/Abi are the early post-merge boots and then probably some combination of Wigles/Kimmi/Woo/Joe/Stephen. Stephen will continue to rant about Joe and accomplish nothing more than maybe getting moved into an early post-merge boot because his constant targeting of Joe makes Jeremy unable to reasonably protect Stephen against Savage. And even if somehow Ciera is able to slip through, she'll just be viewed as a satellite. 

 

Also, had there been one more TC, Ta Keo almost certainly would have lost and Savage would have gone home. A lot of things potentially change. Any move to change one's position on a tribal totem pole usually has some risk build into it. That doesn't always mean it's a bad move. If Ciera's able to work the fractures in the Brolliance and make it to the end, she may not win, but she certainly won't be dismissed as a floater. I suspect that Ciera's the type of player who would rather go out earlier, playing hard and trying to win, than lay low and float to a higher non-winning position.

[peachmangosteen]

Yeah, it's kind of a chicken or egg situation.  Is Ciera on the outs for playing loudly or is she playing loudly because she's on the outs?  To me, B just makes more sense.  It's not like she hit the beach scrambling, like Shirin.   

 

This. Based on what we saw (which obviously may not be accurate but it's all we have to go on) it seems like Ciera was playing quietly until she figured out she wasn't going to be able to get far/win that way so she decided she had to be more aggressive to save herself. Which I personally respect.

[violet and green]

She's a low energy whiny adolescent sort of a woman. Lousy at challenges. Good at bonding with the cool people and dismissing anyone older, in B v W. Why would she be anything much to anyone? I am having a hard time seeing her as this noble and strategic warrior, a sort of second coming to Joan of Arc in the game. She should've filed the information away re Andrew and played a subtler game. Revenge is a dish best served cold, etc. But then I had no high opinion of her at all c/- her previous season's demeanour.

[Oscirus]

Wasn't the TC where they voted Woo out the first time Ciera had been to TC at all, much less one with Savage? It's not like she had an opportunity to kick him out sooner than she did.

 

Tasha was able to convince Abi to boot Varner over Woo, I can't imagine It would be that hard to convince her to do the same with Savage.

 

My previous statement, not hers.  Ciera isn't answerable to my opinions.  I'm not the boss of her!

 

 

Well played.

 

Nothing wrong with taking out Spencer when he's a social and physical threat and strategic swing-vote who has a long-running feud with your closest ally Kass.

 

 

But there is a problem. Andrew is part of the opposing alliance at the merge, Spencer was a lone wolf that could be worked with.  At that point it was time to start concentrating on gathering soldiers for the merge, not getting  rid of them. Besides going back to what she said at tribal, "votes shouldn't be easy." While people might be able to debate Woo being an easy vote, there is definitely no debate on the fact that at the time that Spencer was. 

[phlebas]

Tasha was able to convince Abi to boot Varner over Woo, I can't imagine It would be that hard to convince her to do the same with Savage.

I can imagine it easily. We saw Tasha working with Abi a lot, rolling her eyes every time Abi looked away. We don't know how much time Ciera had or what existing relationship existed between her and Abi. We either trust Ciera's tweets or we don't.

 

If you insist that taking out Woo instead of Savage at that point makes Ciera a weak player and a hypocrite, I don't think I can change your mind.  But I don't see it that way.

[bdestroyer88]

She was allied at various points with Monica Culpepper, Tina Wesson, Gervase and Tyson.  

 

I'm a little surprised she's so polarizing.  Baylor I can kind of see, though she didn't bother me, either.  Maybe because I'm a mother of a girl.  

 

Ciera's 24 and the mother of two.  She kind of gets talked about like she's 13 and how dare she speak up at tribal or be mouthy with Andrew or play her own game.  

She's 26, not 24.

[ProfCrash]

Andrew has said that most of the players out there didn't think that Ciera deserved to be there. I have a feeling that she knew thatAndrew felt that way. When he tosses her name out as a pawn she knows that he values Woo more then her.

[bdestroyer88]

Andrew has said that most of the players out there didn't think that Ciera deserved to be there. I have a feeling that she knew thatAndrew felt that way. When he tosses her name out as a pawn she knows that he values Woo more then her.

Apparently he was saying that about her, Abi, and Wentworth while in the game.

[LadyChatts]

Andrew has said that most of the players out there didn't think that Ciera deserved to be there. I have a feeling that she knew thatAndrew felt that way. When he tosses her name out as a pawn she knows that he values Woo more then her.

 

I can see where Andrew would say that.  I'll wait for everyone else to speak for themselves.  Wasn't Andrew's logic of good game play that you were at the top of an alliance, and if you were at the bottom you sucked?  Even if it was through no fault of your own, except a middle aged lawyer who threw a hissy fit because you went behind his back (but didn't boot him!) put you there.  And his numbers is something he lucked into, on the tribe of alphas he was so conveniently put on from the beginning.

 

I don't know if Tasha did much convincing for Abi to vote Woo over Varner-did Abi really have a choice?  I suppose her/Woo/Varner could have banded together and blindsided Tasha or Savage, but her hate for Woo was great that I don't think she could/would have worked with him.  So go along with the Varner vote and try to keep the peace and allies, or vote Woo with Varner and still be outnumbered.