S29: Speculation Without Spoilers

[Whimsy]

In case you guys want to make those wild guesses without previous spoiler knowledge and come back and see if you're right at the end of the season.

Speculate away!

[cooksdelight]

I have no idea other than what I saw on previews, but does anyone think the blue team might blow it on purpose in order to get rid of lazyass Drew? And what is his little speech to Jeff going to be about?

[LanceM]

I will laugh if he announces that he found their missing flint and asks if he can trade it for the blankets from this last episode.

[cooksdelight]

That's brilliant, I hadn't thought of that! He's probably been sleeping with it under his pillow the entire time.

[peachmangosteen]

This week's ep description: 

 

One castaway contemplates throwing an Immunity Challenge to rid their tribe of the weaker players. However, their thirst for power could result in a shocking blindside.

 

Jeff's tease:

 

There are certain things that you should just never do on Survivor.

 

Web promo:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMmqYjag0KI&list=UUVW1RiWXTQL-G-3KcoRy-_g

 

I feel like there's a possibility this is leading to a Jeremy blindside. But maybe that's just wishful thinking since I really do not like him. I'm OK if it ends in a Drew blindside as well, which is most likely what will actually happen.

Edited October 13, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Lantern7]

Why is everybody mad at Jon-With-No-H? Because he wasn't on board with the plan to vote off Drew?

 

In other news, looks like we got a buff-dropping episode next week. Should be interesting to see how it plays out.

[peachmangosteen]

It didn't seem like the tribe was mad at Jon to me. It seemed like he was mad at them and letting his ego/emotions fuel him, much like Drew and Jeremy are doing. I think it's probably misdirect though.

 

The Blue tribe finally becomes interesting and now there's a tribe switch. Dammit!

[peachmangosteen]

The new promo completely spoils who the new tribes are. LOL.

[Lantern7]

Here's the preview of "Shakedown Street." I'm impressed they found a kid who knows how to act like Probst. And yes, throwing stuff is involved.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0q5LeBD86hM&list=UUVW1RiWXTQL-G-3KcoRy-_g&index=1

[Lantern7]

So . . . anybody want to guess what Hunatpu (or however you spell it) will have to give up to get rice? I'm betting that Probst forces them to abandon camp and set up in a barren locale to start anew. I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be Exile Island.

[KnitsWithRaceCars]

So . . . anybody want to guess what Hunatpu (or however you spell it) will have to give up to get rice? I'm betting that Probst forces them to abandon camp and set up in a barren locale to start anew. I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be Exile Island.

 

I have a very big fear that Jeff is going to do something unbelievably unethical, even for him...  In the whole season preview at the end of the first episode,

there was a clip of Jeff asking someone, I think Wes, to confirm that he was quitting the game, a clip of of a chopper leaving, and a sound byte/possible clip of Jeff saying "You just lost a tribe mate."

  Partial spoiler tag in case a season preview might be considered a spoiler.  My fear is that Jeff says someone has to make the sacrifice of quitting the game so that the rest of the tribe can have food.  I would think that would open up the network, show, Jeff, etc. to a TON of potential litigation, but I'm not an attorney.  Can anyone weigh in on possible legalities?

[LanceM]

Probst is at the Coyopa camp when he says that. So I don't think that is it. My guess he probably takes away their shelter or their blankets and pillows they won.

[KnitsWithRaceCars]

Thanks for clarifying!  That's a relief to me.

[peachmangosteen]

I think they're gonna have to vote out a member. Or maybe I just hope that's it. It better actually be something big and not "give me your blankets." Lame!

[Lantern7]

Here's the episode teaser. Does Power-Tripping Probst make anybody else cringe?

 

ETA: Here's the challenge sneak peek. Amazingly, nothing gets thrown/tossed this time. Also, Dale goes for broke.

[Lantern7]

Has the merge ever happened this early in the game? And who would be the most at-risk in getting voted out?

[cooksdelight]

I've seen it with 11 before but don't ask me to remember which year.

[LanceM]

Yes. Merge at 12, jury of 9, final tribal council of 3.

[peachmangosteen]

Yea, I feel like there's been a merge at 12 quite often.

 

It seems like the merge has potential to be interesting. There's a lot of ways different people could go. I suspect it'll end up coming down to who Baylor/Missy choose though.

Edited October 30, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Lantern7]

I saw a commercial for Wednesday's episode, which asked, "What's in the bag?" I didn't get a sense about whose bag it was, or what could be inside it.

[peachmangosteen]

It seemed to be Julie's bag and it seemed like she was hiding something in it.

[peachmangosteen]

Here's the "What's in the bag?" promo:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cYCVUyBlEA&list=UUVW1RiWXTQL-G-3KcoRy-_g

 

I was thinking maybe HII clue, but they all seem a bit too pissed for it to be that.

[cooksdelight]

Don't they usually get idol clues hidden somewhere when they have a feast? In one of the food baskets or something?

[peachmangosteen]

Yes. I think there's definitely gonna be a HII clue in the merge picnic basket.

[Whimsy]

If it's not a clue, she's hoarding food. That's my guess.

[cooksdelight]

Could be. But would food get her alliance all hot under the collar? I know how they edit the previews to make us think it's worse than it really is, but who knows? Personally, I'd want people around that I can beat in an individual immunity challenge. I'd start voting off the strong guys, because you don't need them anymore.

[Nashville]

Could be. But would food get her alliance all hot under the collar?

You mean, the alliance which just traded away the majority of their accumulated possessions for another bag of rice?

 

Mmmmmm... could be!  :)

[cooksdelight]

But the scenes shown were post-merge. Not sure which camp they were sent to. If the poor camp with rice and no shelter, it probably wouldn't be that big of a deal. Can't wait to see how it all shakes out.

[peachmangosteen]

But would food get her alliance all hot under the collar?

 

The weird thing is in the promo, Jon is the one that made the, "If I can't trust somebody in my alliance, it's ridiculous!" comment yet he was never aligned with Julie. But it's probably misleading and he's talking about someone/thing else.

 

I didn't consider that she was hiding food, but that does make sense and I could see people getting real worked up about it.

Edited November 4, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Lantern7]

Given how clueless John was at picking up hints about having to play his hidden idol (as evidenced in at least one interview), and Julie giving up, you think Burnett and Probst would bar them from the Reunion? This isn't a case of wish fulfillment for me . . . but I'd expect them to be excluded for being "controversial," even though Rocker wound up making friends at the Losers' Lounge.

[cooksdelight]

I doubt they'd be excluded. That would be like Probst having to admit he made a big mistake by casting them.

[Whimsy]

Could be. But would food get her alliance all hot under the collar? .

I know I'm really late to respond, but did I call it or what?! ;)

[cooksdelight]

Who would have thought a bowl of trail mix would have caused such a ruckus! :)

[peachmangosteen]

Well, the Survivor Live promo has taken away the residual Keith love I was still holding onto. I'm down to Natalie, Jacyln, Jon (sometimes), and Baylor (oddly) for people I don't actively hate.

 

This is more of a hope than a speculation, but maybe Baylor smacks Alec upside his head in the next episode.

[Cutty]

What does everyone think of the edits so far? I'm one of those people who believe in a winner's edit, and it's definitely between Jeremy and Josh with Jon as a slight possibility. That could also just mean that everyone else is so boring and they don't have much to work with. After Julie quit and Josh said, "Jeremy was 80% going home and he didn't even know it" my wife turned to me and said "well, we know Josh is going home next week". Survivor is so heavy handed with the editing. 

The other thing I don't like about Josh's chances is how Reed is portrayed as such a non-entity on this show. Those two need to be paired together for Josh to have a shot at the win.

My rankings based on edits would be:

1. Jeremy (though he isn't get a great firefighter nice guy edit)

2. Josh

3. Jon

4. Baylor

5. Missy

6. Natalie

7. Keith

8. Jaclyn

9. Alec

10. Wes

11. Reed

Edited November 7, 2014 by Cutty

[cooksdelight]

I suck at guessing rankings. I always thought Malcolm would win it and he didn't...twice. During Cochran's winning season, he got a lot more attention than he did in his losing one. One of the things we're not privvy to is the interactions between them that we don't see on camera. Who knew RC was such a raving bitch that no one liked her?

[Cutty]

The biggest whiff I ever had was Sophie on South Pacific. She got a really terrible edit. That season was so Ozzy and Coach centric that I'm still shocked one of them didn't win.

[Lantern7]

With John not making the jury, I think anybody could win it, because there was no other narrative to write (if that makes sense). As much as I want Natalie to win, that would require a lot of confessionals -- not bonus clips -- about how she misses her Twinnee. The idea that she's avenging her sister isn't there to be spelled out, so she probably isn't going to win. Jaclyn had a story about how she was born without a uterus, but that hasn't been brought up at all, so I'm sure she's not winning.

[peachmangosteen]

The biggest whiff I ever had was Sophie on South Pacific. She got a really terrible edit. That season was so Ozzy and Coach centric that I'm still shocked one of them didn't win.

 

I always have such pride because I called Sophie winning and I never get anything right! Mind you, it had nothing to do with the show itself, but I had a good feeling Sophie would win based on her twitter, oddly enough.

 

Jaclyn had a story about how she was born without a uterus, but that hasn't been brought up at all, so I'm sure she's not winning.

 

I've been waiting for that to come up again. I think there's still a chance it could later on, but only if Jaclyn is the winner or makes the F3/2.

 

I think the only possible winners are Jeremy or Josh, with Jon a distant 3rd.

[ByaNose]

I actually thought the uterus storyline was from Amazing Race. I knew it was mentioned once in the pregame analysis on Survivor but then it was never mentioned again. I totally forgot it was Jon & Jaclyn. Jeremy & Josh are getting all of the confessionals and are driving the storyline. I guess one or both make the Final 2. Natalie is sort of getting an invisible edit while still getting air time. If that make sense. And, then there is Keith who is getting a lot of spitting confessionals. It must mean something. LOL!!!

[choclatechip45]

I feel like Baylor is getting a second or third place edit. I'm probably wrong on this, but I could see her coming in second or third. I agree it looks like Jeremy or Josh is going to win it.

Edited November 8, 2014 by choclatechip45

[peachmangosteen]

Jaclyn definitely talked about her condition on the actual show though, right? She must have because I remember her bringing it up in a confessional with Jon beside her and I didn't watch any pre-game stuff. At least I don't think I did!

 

choclatechip45, I too think Baylor might be getting a "Makes the finals with no chance of winning because everyone hates her" edit.

 

Jeremy & Josh are getting all of the confessionals and are driving the storyline. I guess one or both make the Final 2.

 

Has there ever been a season where the person that was driving the story/narrating/getting all the confessionals didn't make the finals? I can't really remember. Did BRob and/or Rob C get that edit in their original seasons?

Edited November 8, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[choclatechip45]

 

Has there ever been a season where the person that was driving the story/narrating/getting all the confessionals didn't make the finals? I can't really remember. Did BRob and/or Rob C get that edit in their original seasons?

Rob C definitely got that edit in Amazon. Boston Rob got so much screen time in his original season its hard to say I mean he had his own Robfather promo. I think he split the duties with Kathy as the  narrator in Marquesas. I re-watched Africa and I would say Lex was the narrator of that, but it's hard compare these seasons with early ones because I remember in Australia they made a huge effort not to show Tina.

 

ETA Amazon is a weird season because they threw the winner Jenna under the bus. They didn't even try to make her likeable I remember they didn't even bring up her mom had cancer till the Auction episode which makes me wonder if Jon goes far since they brought up his dad his dying in the first episode.

Edited November 8, 2014 by choclatechip45

[peachmangosteen]

which makes me wonder if Jon goes far since they brought up his dad his dying in the first episode.

 

This is the biggest thing that makes me think that Jon is actually the winner. I even think the editing maybe could suggest a Jon/Jaclyn F2, but I can't really see how we'd get there, so I don't know.

[choclatechip45]

 

This is the biggest thing that makes me think that Jon is actually the winner. I even think the editing maybe could suggest a Jon/Jaclyn F2, but I can't really see how we'd get there, so I don't know.

Jon could go on an immunity run.

[ByaNose]

I think it was obvious that Cochran & Tyson were going to win their seasons. They got so much air time & so many confessionals. That's why it seems like Jeremy & Josh get there, too. IMO! Usually, I never have a clue (which I like...LOL) how the season is going to end or who is going to make the Final 2/3. I guess Missy or Baylor could be the usual woman goat that's always brought to the end with 2 guys. While this season has been mostly boring I'm still looking forward to see how it plays out. Good or bad I watch Survivor like its the first season. I just can't quit it.

[peachmangosteen]

Jon could go on an immunity run.

 

Definitely possible. But I was thinking that it's possible that the edit is leading to a Jon/Jaclyn F2, but I don't see how that could really happen. They have no real alliance with any group and IMO are the most expendable in both factions, so I think even if Jon were to go on an immunity run, Jaclyn wouldn't last. So, basically, I don't even know why I think the Jon/Jaclyn F2 is possible!

 

I'm with you on all that, ByaNose. I think the odds are about 85% that the winner is either Jeremy or Josh (more so Jeremy, IMO), but maybe they're pulling more of a South Pacific type edit, in which case I could see Jon or possibly even Missy as the winner.

 

I am rooting for this to be a terribly edited season wherein the winner has actually gotten little to no screen time just because I am so bored by how obvious the past at least 3 seasons winners have been from the get go.

Edited November 9, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[choclatechip45]

 

Definitely possible. But I was thinking that it's possible that the edit is leading to a Jon/Jaclyn F2, but I don't see how that could really happen. They have no real alliance with any group and IMO are the most expendable in both factions, so I think even if Jon were to go on an immunity run, Jaclyn wouldn't last. So, basically, I don't even know why I think the Jon/Jaclyn F2 is possible!

 

I'm with you on all that, ByaNose. I think the odds are about 85% that the winner is either Jeremy or Josh (more so Jeremy, IMO), but maybe they're pulling more of a South Pacific type edit, in which case I could see Jon or possibly even Missy as the winner.

 

I am rooting for this to be a terribly edited season wherein the winner has actually gotten little to no screen time just because I am so bored by how obvious the past at least 3 seasons winners have been from the get go.

Well Jaclyn hasn't been on anyone's radar so maybe that's how? Well for no screen time Reed or Wes would be our winner!

[LanceM]

They have shown Jon and Jaclyn wondering if they could trust Baylor multiple times during this season. That tells me that this is going to come into play later this season and if I had to guess it means that they shouldn't have trusted her and they will get voted out because of it. If I had to guess right now I think Jermey might be the winner with possibly Natalie and Baylor being the other two in the F3.

[ByaNose]

I really do miss the crazy of Tony, Kass, Spencer & Tasha. Tony deserved to win and the edit showed him working hard. I thought Kass was a goner in the first few days and she ended up in the Final 3. This season the are showing Jeremy & Josh working the hardest with the biggest edit. I haven't count the confessionals but I assume those two have the most. I'm not sure who comes in third with confessionals. Maybe, Keith or Missy?