WearyTraveler

I wasn't yelling all that because I was too distracted by his pulling out the shard in the first place. The first rule they teach you in First Aid class (and which has been explored in medical shows like ER and Grey's Anatomy) is that you never, EVER, pull out the object because said object is actually acting as a stopper/plug and preventing the person from bleeding out. The object (knife, glass shard, rebar, whatever) should only be removed by medical personnel in an OR or trauma room where they can use better methods to stop flood flow once they pull out the object. I don't mind when regular characters do it because, hell, not everyone takes First Aid classes, and it may be a natural impulse to pull out the object that caused the damage, but when cops do it, I cringe because cops should be trained in First Aid procedures, so they know how to act when they come upon a situation that requires medical help. I think in Third Watch they actually went over that when a cop had to deliver a baby, with the cop (or someone else on the scene, I can't remember that well now) said that he hadn't done it but he'd had the training to do it.

I can't find a website with the name Book Keep Library, which is the supposed source of the date reported in that article. I left a comment asking them for a link, but I haven't had an answer yet. My guess is they published a bogus article to get clicks, to get people to read their other linked articles and to get people to subscribe/follow. Cheap stunt.

Off course not. I'm saying that the teenagers thought Nora was suicidal when they saw the gun at the coffee shop because they knew who Nora was and that she had lost her entire family, and then they saw her push the cup off the table (which was weird all on its own). Later they followed her and saw that she was sad, had no energy, etc. Before getting the Wayne hug, Nora was pretty bleak, sad and defeated. And everyone in town saw it, including Jill who got close and personal. What I'm saying is that the teenagers inferred Nora was suicidal, not that she actually was.

From the article: "news site Book Keep Library has reported that the Winds of Winter release date is on April 2015 and that George R.R. Martin is allegedly contractually obligated to finish the book by mid 2015." How reliable is Book Keep Library? Since that seems to be the original source for the date, their veracity and accuracy in the past would tell us if we dare hope. I loved the "contractually obligated" bit, as I have always thought that the publishing industry could not be so loose with their standards, even with a money maker writer. A business needs to be able to predict some outcomes, or at least plan with a degree of certainty, particularly a business that has seen its margins and sales decline with the advent of eReaders and online piracy. If they have an author that is a sure money maker, they might bend their rules a little, but that has a cost (sales not made) and the business can't sustain that cost indefinitely.

My take on the gun is that when Jill and Aimee first saw it and saw Nora so sad, they thought she was having suicidal thoughts and that she was fucked up because her whole family disappeared. IMO, when Jill sees Nora with her father, she's wondering if she's now going to get a fucked up, depressed, suicidal stepmom that will mess up her dad (and probably her, too) even more than he is. Thus her bringing up the gun at the dinner table ("dad, you have to stop seeing this woman because she's bad news for us") and her searching the purse. Later, when Aimee is relating the story to the twins, one of them asks why the gun is important, and Aimee says that if Nora doesn't have the gun, then that means she's okay, to which Jill replies that Nora is lying. Aimee says that it is possible for people to be okay and Jill says it's not possible for Nora to be okay because she lost her whole family. I think here we see again, IMO, that Jill just doesn't want any more crazy getting into her already fucked up family. When they are in Nora's house, one of the twins asks why is finding the gun so important, and the other one replies that if they find it, it means that no one will be okay, ever again. I think he was partially right. When Jill found the gun she cried, because maybe a part of her was hoping that Nora was really a healthy person who could help get her family to a better place, psychologically speaking, but finding the gun meant that Nora was still "suicidal" in her mind. Having lost all hope, Jill joins the GR. I don't much like the character of Jill, but I think they needed to do something with her, other than exploring her boring, angtsy, teenage world. Maybe this will provide her with the opportunity to really direct her anger where it belongs: her mother.

Earlier Rosa mentioned that she always thought she'd go out in a blaze of glory. I think she even mentions Bonnie and Clyde, so, her hope seemed to have been to actually be gunned down while trying to escape / making a last stand. I took the sirens to have two purposes: one, to indicate that pursuers were approaching (which is totally realistic, the prison guards are not just going to stand there staring at her dust, they're going to get into their cars and follow); and two, since they could be heard after the face change into young Rosa, to indicate a sort of flashback to when Rosa had first been caught, which would have been after a police chase. So, this time, when the sirens catch up to her, Rosa is not going to let herself be captured, she is either going to drive off a cliff or do something to make the cops shoot her.

But everyone knew Theon was a ward, whereas they all knew Jon was a brother (at least they thought he was). It's not the same. I understand that Sansa didn't treat him as such because of Cat but she thought of him as a brother. Robb, Arya and Bran treated him as such, even if their mother made sure he didn't have the same privileges as her children. It's one thing to think that the bastard child is entitled to less than the legitimate child, but it's quite another to say that the bastard status somehow takes away the sibling bond. They all thought of him as Ned's son, regardless of the treatment he got. To say "oh, well, he's not my brother anymore so now I can fuck him" would not be that easy. In real life, if someone told me today that my sister was adopted, I'd still think of her as my sister, it's not a switch you can just turn off because you discover he's not really your sibling. It's years and years of thinking of him as such versus weeks or months of thinking of him as a cousin. Also, it'd still be as icky to me as Sansa and Robin because they would be as much cousins as Sansa and Robin are. Robin is the son of Cat's sister and Jon is the son of Ned's sister, so, it'd be exactly the same kind of incestuous relationship. They'd both feel icky to me, even if by Westerosi standards they are accepted.

Whenever I think of Jon and Sansa, all I can think of is: Eeeeeewwww!!! I know they're not siblings, but, given that they were raised as such, it'd feel like Jaimie and Cersei, to me.

I agree with Angela going home. As a woman who used to be in the business world with my own company for several years, I don't think that's modernizing the business suit at all. I kept looking at that skirt and thinking how uncomfortable I'd be in it, sitting in a conference room for two hours trying to avoid showing my privates every time I crossed my legs to avoid a numb limb. Pant suits may be perceived as an attempt to appear powerful by wearing what the men do, but, for me, pant suits were all about the comfort and versatility. I never wore skirts to work, they are a pain when you have to run up and down stairs or jump on cabs to go from meeting to meeting. Not to mention you'd have to wear stockings and they are the most uncomfortable, constricting thing, ever. And you have to keep your legs completely hair free every day, which is a hassle. Not that I walk around with hairy legs, mind you, but if you only wear skirts, you can't be even one day late on the waxing/shaving and sometimes, if you're in the business world, that's not logistically possible. Don't even get me started on heels! Do you know how awful it is to go for a meeting with a client, then inviting them to lunch to a nearby restaurant within walking distance and having to walk through the pain and the sidewalk cracks as fast as the men do in their flat comfortable loafers? The evolution of the female business outfit would be one that allows her to be comfortable without getting any judgment for it, and, strangely enough, judgment is usually harder, meaner and more frequently coming from other women, not men. I don't think any of these people know what working in an office entails, and I don't know what job Angela had in Wall Street, but I'm telling you right now, as a working woman, I prefer a pant suit, with flats, in muted tones that I can color coordinate with my existing shirts, tops, purses and shoes, so that I don't have to waste three hours getting ready in the morning just so I can look "fashionable". If the future evolves toward more practical fashions, and I think it will (look at people like Zuckerberg and Gates who wore a suit after they got rich, not before), Angela's outfit was a total fail. So, based on that alone, I think she should have been offed. Moving on to jumpsuits. I too I'm over them. To misquote Friends, I was never "under" them. I think the trend started the season of Gretchen, way back when, and since I saw them make their comeback, all I can think off when I see a jumpsuit is the fashions on The Love Boat (yeah, I'm that old). Jumpsuits are not the future, they are the now (and barely), so I wouldn't have awarded the win to any jumpsuits. I agreed with the top three, though. After that, whoever gets the win is a highly subjective thing, so, I don't usually have complaints in that regard. I agree with Tom and Lorenzo's assessment, so I guess I'm ok with Sandhya winning, even though I didn't much like her dress. I think she's creative. I didn't like it last episode when she was all "nobody listens to me". I almost always hate it when people say that because what they really mean is "they are not doing it my way". Her team did listen to her, they just didn't agree and it was their asses on the line, not hers because she had immunity. I think she shares the blame with Hernan for that loss. And I didn't like her attitude and demeanor then, victimizing herself so quickly. Later though, she was a bit more flexible, so I give her credit for that. And also the benefit of the doubt because editing does play a big role in how these people are portrayed. Double-sided tape is a no-no, as is gluing the outfit to the model. But taping a model's breast so they stay in position when using a bra with the outfit is not possible, is permitted. Sadly, this has been a Hollywood fashion "secret" for decades. They even make rounded tape strips shaped specifically for breasts for this purpose. I think that's what Hernan was doing, although it's hard to tell from the angle and the fact that the tape was black. He might not have broken any rules. I think what she meant by that, but didn't manage to convey properly, is that her sandals clack and clump on the floor when she runs because they are loose on her feet since they are so narrow. The sound of people wearing flip flops going down the stairs drives me crazy, which is why I noticed the sound has nothing to do with a person's lightness of step, but with the fact that the flip flops don't completely adhere to a person's foot, so they clop and clap as the person walks. That's what I think she meant.

This quote from the article above: made LOL. Jon's parentage is probably the worst kept mystery in the series

I can see the show doing a shortened version of Skagos/WH when it becomes important to bring Rickon back, but a very compressed version of that, with Davos just going in to bring Rickon out, all in one episode. I'm not too sure about Oldtown, as we don't know yet what the purpose of Sam going there is. If important discoveries and developments are made in Oldtown in WoW, then the show might actually go there. As for Aegon, I think the show will use him, maybe as soon as next season, because I think he's important to show Varys' game plan and Varys has been with us since day one.

I wonder how much of that is the showrunners' desire to not spill the beans too early. Shows like these get dissected online so thoroughly, and the books had already garnished such a cult following before the show came on, that I can see a reluctance to show their hand. Time will tell, I guess.

I thought I noticed they used a variation of the "A Song of Ice and Fire" introductory theme song during the entire episode at The Wall, then I read other people had heard it too, so, it wasn't just my imagination. What do you guys think of that? Is it a clue to Jon's future importance? or is that only my own wishful thinking?

Maybe Jon Snow is just extremely hard-headed. :)

I agree. Sometimes I could almost hear Ned Stark's voice in Jon Snow's head, giving him instructions on battle strategy and telling him about the voice a leader ought to have so that men would hear and follow his commands during the fighting. I was pleasantly surprised.

Thank you! I asked because I wanted to know if the show had addressed that aside from marrying their siblings, the Targaryens were also allowed to have multiple spouses. And I wanted to confirm that so that I could address an earlier comment here saying that even if Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son he would still be a bastard. That could be true, unless Rhaegar married Lyanna before she gave birth, in which case Jon wouldn't be a bastard, and according to Westeros' succession laws would have a better claim that Dany.

Can someone remind me what the show has said about Aegon the Conqueror?

One of my favorite of the night! Gave me goose bumps and made me choke (I was sad with some of the other developments but didn't choke for any of them). Grenn was all kinds of awesome there, propping his men up, even though he knew they were going to die. It was also great to see Jon later closing his eyes and saying that he held the gate. I would guess because he intends to kill Mance and wants to throw them off any suspicion they might have when they see him walking up to their camp. He wants to appear as little threatening as possible, so, walking up to them with Ghost in tow would not be a good idea. That was totally unexpected and all kinds of awesome. Maybe that's what Mance plans to do in his next attack. Jon did say that was a test run and we have been told he has 100,000 Wildlings, so he has the luxury of trying several strategies, see what works and then regroup for a more efficient attack. Jon knows the Wall will fall if they don't do something other than fight a relentless horde of Wildlings being thrown at it, which is why he decided to go and kill Mance. May the old Gods be with him.

In Westeros, the Targaryens were exempt of many rules that still apply to everyone else, such as marrying a sister, and having multiple wives. Before Rhaegar the sons of second wives had ruled the kingdom, so, they were considered as legitimate as the sons of first wives. Rhaegar thought he needed to have another child (he says to Elia in Dany's vision that they need one more because the dragon has three heads), but Elia was left barren after birthing Aegon, so why wouldn't he get another wife so he could have the third dragon? I'm thinking someone needs to be alive that knows Jon's heritage, so the reveal can be made. Howland Reed (Meera and Jojen's father) is the only one that remains alive from those who went to "rescue" Lyanna at the Tower of Joy, but his word alone could not be enough. The septon that performed the ceremony could be the one who confirms it, and here we have several septons to choose from.

Which is why I think he would refuse, as he refused Stannis' offer of Winterfell, which he truly wanted. I don't think Jon would want the Iron throne. Winterfell was a stronger temptation to him than the realm would be, and he refused that. But the point was made in reply to a whole different issue and not intended to imply that Jon would make a claim on the IT. No, but you get out of it if a King (or Queen) releases you from the oath (as a dying Daenarys or a dying Aegon could do), or if it is established that you were deceived. They used that little excuse to annul Joffrey's engagement to Sansa. Anyone could posit that Jon not knowing his true heritage influenced his decision to take the oath, thus making it invalid. Aemon, OTOH, knew who he was and what he was giving up. Maybe the Night's Watch will no longer be needed. The prophecy doesn't say the coming of the Others is a cyclical thing. Maybe they'll be eliminated for good this time, thus making the Wall no longer necessary. I didn't know about that theory, but I agree with you that it's crappy, at best. Beric came back from the dead many times and he still kept his oath to Ned.

Actually, the entire thing is called "A Song of Ice and Fire". Only the first book is called "A Game of Thrones"; although the TV show chose that as the series' name, I think it's important to remember the original title. Also, I said I thought he had no impact on the end game, not the game of thrones being currently played in Westeros. That's an important distinction. For me, the end game is the battle against the Others (White Walkers and their wight army), not who ends up in the Iron Throne through machinations, alliances, betrayals, and/or political maneuvering. As much time as the series has invested in showing us that, it has also told us that the common folk really could care less and that they are the ones that suffer the most when the lords play their petty little game. I think the game will become largely inconsequential once the Others begin their attack and Winter truly comes. The person sitting the IT will not be any of the players scheming and manipulating to get there, but whoever saves the realm from the real threat of utter annihilation that the Others represent. Targ or not (although most likely it will be a Targ). I think some of us care because he seems to be Varys' bet. Varys has been with us since the very first book and he has been involved in dozens of key plot points, so whatever his plans are and why he came to make the decisions he made are interesting plot points for some of us As for his late appearance in the story, the same can be said about many characters. Why should we care about Penny's fate? She was a side note in the Purple Wedding and has now suddenly become an active character in book 5. Why should we care about Doran Martell's plans or the Sand Snakes who were introduced in book 4? Yet, these characters seem to incite interest amongst many readers. In contrast, we can't say the same thing about the Iron born, who have been with us since the first book (through Theon Greyjoy), and who get their own POV chapters, but who seem to elicit less love from the fans. Very few people care about the Damphair, Euron, or Victarion. I think caring is a largely subjective thing. It depends on each person, some stories and some characters will grab them and they can connect with it, some won't, but the timing of their appearance and/or the length of material devoted to them have little to do with it. I think the reason Aegon seems to generate such polarized, passionate reactions is a love/identification/connection with Dany's story. I think some believe that Aegon being a true Targ threatens Dany's triumph, and so, they try their best to see evidence to the contrary. I find that fascinating. He could, off course, be a fake. I'm just saying that sometimes emotional motivations cloud logic, and I'm not excluding myself from that, which is why I try to explore every angle, and have been saying from the start of this discussion that there's no overwhelming, undeniable evidence to confirm or deny Aegon's Targaryen-ness in the ASOIAF series. I think you're equating Aegon being a real Targaryen with the amount of impact he could have on Dany's play for the Iron throne, when the two are not necessarily related. Plus, it's not the last minute, we have two more books to go. It might be three if the more recent interview with Martin is to be believed. Maybe Aegon is necessary to ride the dragons (they need three riders) and he'll die in the final battle against the Others, maybe Dany can't conquer Westeros with only one dragon with her as the single rider (the first Targ conqueror, also named Aegon needed three, and still had to do some extra work to bring the Martells into the fold). Maybe Aegon's heritage is significant to Varys, a character many find intriguing and would like to get to know better. There are many story possibilities for Aegon that don't lay to waste all the investment in Dany's story. As for yelling PSYCHE! wouldn't that be true if/when the Jon Snow reveal comes? If Rhaegar did make Lyanna his wife, then Jon is a trueborn heir and his claim would come before Dany's. Would you also be aggravated by that? I don't get aggravated by characters and plot points. I just follow the story and see where the author takes us. Granted, I like some stories and some characters more than others, but I just don't like to invest energy in negative feelings. Before seeing Aegon die, I'd rather see Roose and Ramsay burn, or Littlefinger. You know, the truly evil, amoral characters. Aegon is just a boy who may be a bit entitled and blinded by dreams of glory, but he's not evil, nor has he purposely harmed innocent, good people. The only thing that annoys me about this series is Martin's writing pace, more than that is the uncertainty of the timing for the ending. If he said: "you'll get it in 10 years time", I'd be fine with it. I just need a reasonably reliable timetable, so I know not to wait for it year after year. LOL!

I think the best argument against Aegon being a Blackfyre was posted by one of the users in the thread you linked. He/she says: "this is probably the theory that I am most skeptical of. While this evidence is convenient for obsessive fans such as ourselves, most readers will not pick up on it. I have read the series more than once and I am still unclear on the whole Blackfyre/Targaryen history. There is no way any casual reader would be able to comprehend this twist if Aegon does turn out to be a Blackfyre. A lot of the backstory comes through the Dunk and Egg series, and seeing as that will not be included in the TV show I doubt that it is an essential part of the ASOIAF storyline. I am not sold on this theory at all". I agree with this, but I want to clarify that believing Aegon to be a true Targ does not in any way mean I expect him to be the promised one, or to actually sit the Iron Throne. But wouldn't this also be true of R+L=Jon Snow? If that theory is true, then Jon's real identity reveal would take 6 or 7 books, depending on when Martin does it. Also, I think it's Martin's way to take his sweet time with reveals. Take for instance the reveal of Jon Arryn's murderer, that took three books. The reveal that Joffrey had sent the hobo guy to kill Bran took two books. Doran Martell's long game, including the reveal Arienne's secret engagement took 4 books. There's also the note added by Martin himself at the end of book 4 where he states he was planning for books 4 and 5 to be a single issue, but that the story had grown so large he ended up deciding to make it two books. He'd tell the story of some characters in book 4 and the story of the other characters in book 5. That means he was planning the Aegon reveal for book 4, along with the reveal of Doran Martell's plans. Therefore, the Aegon reveal would have taken as long as the reveal of Doran's end game. So, no inconsistency with the writing style of the author. I think Dany has a big purpose, but I'm not sure she'll sit the Iron Throne. One possibility is that she survives the war against the White Walkers and rules after Jon (who has a better claim, if he is Rhaegar's son) either declines the throne as Aemon did because "he said the words" or dies himself saving the realm. Another possibility is that she dies fighting the White Walkers, in true hero fashion, leaving Jon, who found raising to Lord Commander of the NW an unbelievable turn of events for a "bastard" born, to rule Westeros. A third possibility is that because of the war against the White Walkers and the need to use the magic that is starting to inundate the world to fight them, we see some very real physical changes in the known world, such as the sun rising in the west and setting in the east, thus allowing Dany to be reunited with Drogo and their child to rule the world. A fourth possibility is that she and Jon rule together, but I like this one the least because I find it icky, although there's certainly precedent for incest and inter-family marriages in Westeros (Tywin and Joanna were cousins), particularly with the Targs. In any case, there are more reasons for Dany's story and the focus on her in the books than "this is the last Targaryen". Also, I don't think the angle pursued by Martin for the audience is "this is the last Targaryen", but "this is a Targaryen heir who was able to raise the dragons". Especially if we consider that he plants enough seeds in the books to make the R+L=J theory one of the most popular ones out there, that is, even the casual reader can see some signs of it. Martin certainly spends a lot time on Dany and Jon, developing their stories in a lot of detail, putting Dany in charge of the "Fire" and Jon at the forefront against the "Ice" (i.e. White Walkers). So, I think we are heading to an eventual meeting of the two characters and that, whatever their roles in Martin's end game, they are the two to watch for. The Lannisters are certainly interesting, and some of the plots surrounding the other characters are fascinating, but, in the end, I don't think they matter that much once the WW head south and possibly overcome the Wall to attack Westeros. I'm positive Aegon will die too, but that doesn't mean he's a fake dragon. He could be a real Targ and still die. The argument that Aegon will have no impact on the end game does not immediately discount him as a true Targ, though. You (the audience, I mean, including readers) don't need to root for him to win the IT for him to be a real Targ. His possible status as a real Targ does nothing to diminish the weight of Dany's story, so far. But it does give her another circumstance to deal with. Would she forego her claim for her brother's son? Would she forget everything she has gone through to win the throne for her nephew's claim? Or will she act as most of the other power hungry Westerosi players? Those are interesting questions for the character to face. I think. As for the Azor Ahai prophecy, I do think this prophecy has been given more weight than others and it's probably about to get even much more, after the events at the Citadel, when Sam met Archmaester Marwyn (AFFC). It's the only prophecy of which several characters in different continents are aware, and it's the oldest prophecy in the books (5,000 years old). So far the people that know include: Thoros, Melissandre, Jon Snow (through Mel), Maester Aemon, Samwell Tarly, Archmaester Marwyn, Moqorro, Victarion (through Moqorro), and who knows who else. R'hallor has temples in Pentos, Braavos, Lys, Selhorys, Volantis and Oldtown that we know off; presumably all the Red Priests in these cities know about the prophecy. This religion certainly seems to be the more ubiquitous of all the religions in the world of Ice and Fire. Maggy's prophecies were right, off course, but one can't judge yet if this Red Religion prophecy is wrong, as most of the events it refers to have not happened yet, whereas almost all the events Maggy foretold have already happened. Some events that have happened in the books so far do seem to indicate that the prophecy was on the right track, the most notable of which is the rise of the Others who had been gone from the world for hundreds of years. So much so, that people had already forgotten them, including the men of the Night's Watch, whose only purpose was to defend the realm from the Others. Consider this (from a wiki of Ice and Fire): "According to prophesy, in ancient books of Asshai from over 5,000 years ago, Azor Ahai is to be reborn again to challenge the re-emergence of the Others. This will occur after a long summer when an evil, cold darkness descends upon the world.[41] It is said that Azor Ahai wielding Lightbringer once again, will stand against the Others and if he fails, the world fails with him." The long summer has happened, the rise of the Others has happened, the evil, cold darkness is starting to descend upon the world, making its way south from beyond the wall (everywhere the WW and wights go, it snows, and it gets dark, and very, very cold). So far, the predictions have been correct. We only need to figure out who Azor Ahai is. I think Mel might have provided us with the answer when she tells Jon in ADWD: "I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R’hllor shows me only snow"

Yes, no one in Westeros seems to be able to interpret prophecies correctly, not that it gets any easier when you're a reader and have more information. Just look at all the theories out there. However, my point wasn't that Rhaegar was correct interpreting the prophecy, only that he might have made some plans because he believed in his interpretation. Lyanna didn't seem to want to provide explanations to her family either. I don't believe Rhaegar raped her or took her against her will. He could have, off course, but when Jojen tells Bran the story about the green man who went to the tourney, he depicts a Lyanna that is no meek little mouse. And the stories we have read of Rhaegar don't jive with a scenario where he would take her against her will and rape her. I think their relationship was consensual, so, there must have been some other reason for their lack of explanations to the Starks and the Baratheons. Maybe they thought the families wouldn't understand and that they would force Lyanna to keep her father's word to the Baratheons. Just look at how offended Walder Frey got when Robb married someone else. Perhaps they wanted to get married first and make it impossible for anybody to stop them, deciding to explain it all once the deed was done, so to speak. Ned's honor code must have come from somewhere, most likely his father. I don't think Lord Stark would have just agreed with Lyanna and Rhaegar's little plan, as he wouldn't have wanted to break his promise and sully his honor. I agree he failed to understand the gravity of Ellia's situation, but I don't think leaving her and the children in the Red Keep was a crazy notion. The Red Keep would not have fallen so easily if Aerys had not opened his gates to Tywin Lannister. This is King's Landing we're talking about and the Red Keep is one of the strongest castles in all of Westeros. Countless times we have read in the books how hard it is to actually break the defenses and enter the main Westerosi castles. When the besiegers strategize, they always give lengthy time frames for a castle's fall, talking about castles holding on for a year or more with their gates closed. Stannis himself held Storm's End for over a year while an army was stationed outside the whole time. During the Blackwater battle, we get some insight into what it would take for Stannis' men to actually break into The Red Keep. It's not that easy. Unless the gates open, it would take some time. I don't think it was unreasonable for Rhaegar to believe Ellia would be safe there. Aerys was mad, but he would have never taken actions against his own blood, and every man with a sword in KL was supposed to protect the royal family, even if it meant their lives. They seem to look at those vows as we do secret service agents nowadays: jump in front of the bullet to protect your charge, fight until you die to protect the Targs. Look at Jamie's situation. Most everyone knew the king was mad, and most everyone was happy Robert grabbed the throne from him, but everyone, including Robet's supporters (the Starks, the Tullys, the Arryns, the small folk) despise and scorn Jamie, saying he has shit for honor. Everyone expected him to die defending the Mad King because he had sworn a vow. It seems that in their minds honor comes before doing the right thing. So, I don't think Rhaegar was that careless when he thought Ellia and his children would be safe there. His mistake was to underestimate Tywin. But maybe he didn't know all the offenses his father had inflicted upon House Lannister. IIRC, Tywin resigned as Hand of the King, he wasn't burned like the subsequent Hands, so, maybe Rhaegar wasn't aware of how far back or how deep their enmity was. Would Rhaegar had known that Aerys lusted for Joanna? Would he have known that Arys had resfused to marry him to Cersei? Maybe he did, or maybe he didn't. Up until the Lannister army sacked King's Landing, everyone thought Tywin supported the King. Perhaps Rhaegar had made arrangements with Varys before hand, in case the defenses were breached. Cersei does explain during the Blackwater battle that even if the enemy broke into the castle, it would still take them sometime to actually breach the Red Keep, and the tower where she and the other women were gathered during the battle. Perhaps he didn't and Varys just took it upon himself to save the children, but was only able to get Aegon away through one of the Red Keep's secret passages before the Lannister men broke into Ellia's rooms. The male heir is always the most important. Aegon would have been first in line for the throne, before Viserys, Dany or Rhaenys. The succession would have been Aegon, Viserys, Rhaenys, Dany (who had not been born yet). So, it stands to reason that Varys would have tried to save baby Aegon first, particularly knowing the next male heir was reasonably safe at the time in Dragonstone. I think the point still stands that Aegon's smashed head could work both ways: Either Amory Lorch found no baby at all, or he found an impostor, so Tywin decided to fool Robert with an unrecognizable baby (or maybe Amory decided to fool Tywin, not ready to admit failure to his Lord); OR Varys thought he could use the smashed head to create some plausibility for his fake Aegon. It's hard to tell with Varys. In the books he doesn't come across as someone power hungry who desires to have/control the Iron Throne. He keeps saying that he defends "the realm" and seems to have a soft spot for children and common folk. Why would he come up with such a convoluted way to "help" the realm? I mean, think about it, he would have had to had hatched the fake Aegon plan within a year of the head-smashing, choosing a boy and grooming him for over 13 years to become the king. Could he not have helped the realm in any other way? After all, two Targaryen heirs whose ancestry could not be questioned still survived Robert's Rebellion and he eventually got to them when Willem Darry died and they ended up in Illaryo Mopatis' care. Could he have not helped the realm by manipulating the players already in KL? Whoever got to be King, Hand, Master of whatever? Why does it need to be a Targaryen? Cuoldn't he simply support any other claim, stronger at the time, with complete support from the people, such as Robert's? Why invest in the impoverished, unsupported Targaryens at all? Who is with them, anyway? Who are these secret Targ supporters that would overtake the realm if only a rightful heir would show up? The griffins, who have very little manpower? The Martells who seem to have power but not enough to really threaten the realm (as Doran explains to Arianne AFFC)? I think we will come to find out that Varys supports house Targaryen from the heart, and that he's not in the game for power or personal gain. Varys actually counseled Aerys against opening the gates to Tywin, but Pycelle convinced him otherwise. Why is Varys so fond of House Targaryen? I think that's an interesting question to ask. True. Although from a literary standpoint, given the emphasis placed on this particular prophecy and the events that are unfolding north of the Wall, which seem to confirm the prophecy, at least in the grand scheme aspects, it is more likely, IMO, that the prophecy will turn out to be largely true, and we just need to figure out the details.

Interesting theories. Aegon could be a fake, but I'm not sure the justification offered in that quote is logically sound. Also, I think he might have been someone else in Dany's vision in the House of the Undying, other than the cloth dragon. In AGOT, Ned remembers Lyana's death in a bed of blood and her desperate pleas: "promise me, Ned". If R+L= Jon Snow, then one could presume Lyanna died while giving birth to Jon and Ned's promise had to do with protecting her son. In any case, Rhaegar was at the Trident when this happened. Ned was closer to KL's after having gone to the Tower to get Lyanna, which is why he arrived to KL before Robert to find Jaimie in the Iron throne. This is important because it means Rhaegar had never set eyes upon Jon Snow before he died. Given the travel times in Westeros and the logistics of fighting wars there, he might not even have known that Lyanna was pregnant. He might have had to leave her in the tower early in her pregnancy, so he would have had enough time to get himself and his army to the Trident to try to stop Robert Baratheon. One of Dany's vision is of Rhaegar and a woman holding a baby boy. If Rhaegar had never set eyes upon Jon, this could only mean that Dany saw him with Ellia, holding Aegon. In the vision, Rhaegar says the baby is the Prince that was promised. Before that, Rhaegar believed he himself was the promised prince, which explains his melancholy. We know this because Aemon tells Sam so, before he died at sea on his way to Oldtown. Now, if Rhaegar believed Aegon was the promised prince, it makes sense he felt liberated enough to pursue Lyanna. Most of the tales the characters tell about Rhaegar talk of his honor and his sense of responsibility. Aemon says he felt the burden of the prophecy on his shoulders. We also know that for a long time before he actually donned his armor and did the things male heirs to the crown were supposed to do (joust, melee, sword fights, etc.), he preferred music and books. This story was told (by Barristan to Dany, IIRC) almost as if the prince had had a sudden change of heart. It stands to reason that this happened after he found out about the prophecy and started believing he was the promised one. He was also planning to make changes and exert some influence on Aerys when the war was over. His pursuing Lyanna, a woman promised to another, even though he was married as well, contradicts what we know of Rhaegar before Robert's Rebellion. Unless he did believe Aegon was the promised prince, which then freed him from his burden and allowed him to pursue his desires, more or less guilt free. I think it's entirely possible that, believing Aegon was the promised one, and knowing the mechanics and cruelty of war, Rhaegar made a plan to keep the baby safe as soon as Robert's Rebellion started to gain enough momentum to be a threat to the throne. Jon Snow, who is likely less read than Rhaegar was, did take a similar measure with Mance's baby, exchanging him for Gilly's boy. If Rhaegar believed Aegon was of such importance, who's to say that he didn't entrust Varys with switching the child in case the worst came to pass? It is strange that the baby boy's head was smashed, and not the girl's. Why? Why would any Lannister man do that and risk his deed be challenged? At some point Tywin explains that he knew the only way to gain Robert's trust was to present him with the two corpses. Why would he present a smashed head baby and a perfectly un-smashed headed girl? One explanation could be because he had no choice. If Rhaegar used Varys to hide Aegon before the shit hit the fan and Tywin had found an impostor baby (or no baby at all), what would he do then to completely gain Robert's trust? Wouldn't he look for a baby that could pass for Aegon and smash his head so that no one would know he had presented a fake baby? I think the smashed head argument works both ways. So, nothing is definitive. Personally, I like the existence of Aegon as a true Targaryen. I don't want any watered down Targaryens riding the dragons: Tyrion, with the theory that Aerys was his father (which I don't subscribe, I prefer to think that Genna Lannister was right when she said Tyrion was Tywin's one true son); Daario who claims to have dragon blood; or any of the dozens that claim to have a Targaryen ancestor, including the Baratheons (legitimate heirs and bastards). I think the cloth dragon in the prophecy could very well be any of these watered down Targaryens: Stannis, Daario, even Quentyn Martell. To me, Quentyn actually looks like the best option for the cloth dragon vision, so far. IMO, Jon is the prince that was promised and Dany and Aegon are the other two heads of the three headed dragon. Why Jon? because he is literally Ice and Fire, the title of the series. His birth is close enough to Dany's for the same conditions to apply to his birth that applied to hers. His ice comes from Lyanna, his fire from Rhaegar. Off course if he ends up dead in TWoW, the prophecy is up for grabs, with Daenerys being the front runner. Miss-reading prophecies seems to be a common theme in the series. Melissandre, Aemon, Thoros, The Damphair, Rhaegar.... No one seems to get it right :D

I don't think he has ever said that in the books, but he has not said he wants to kill her either (that I recall). It's hard to tell with Varys and Illyrio. Illyrio had Dany and Viserys in his house and arranged for the marriage with Drogo. He also was the one to give her the dragon eggs. And Illyrio was the one who sent Strong Belwas and Barristan Selmy to Dany, along with the ships that were to take her to KL (but she made that stop in Astapor to get her Unsullied Army and later destroyed the ships to take Mereen). Marriage means children and that means heirs, so, they were either betting on more Tragaryens from Dany's side or they were hoping the Dothraki life would kill her. Or Illyrio has his own game that he has not shared with Varys. There are many ways the events could be interpreted.