cereality

Former federal court law clerk here - judge gets to decide if a sentence is concurrent or consecutive. I've almost never seen consecutive sentences though - 95%+ of the time it's concurrent with credit given for time served (i.e. if Josh were to not make bond today and sit in prison for say 6 months until he pleads and is sentenced, he gets credit for that 6 mos served). I think he's never getting the 20 year maximum here -- there's too many arguments re first time offenders, not luring any of the children "just" looking at pics etc. I think if he gets 5-7 years here that's a "win" for society in that he does pay SOME price. From the perspective of his family though, his oldest kid would be what 16-18 by then and the newest baby would be 5-7 - wow that's still a lot of years ahead with kids in his life. If he somehow gets less than 5 years, that's a win for his legal team.

Yes and no. The motion for bond previewed their argument re he wasn't allowed to consult his attorney during the search; it previews that they will make a motion re the validity of the search and the search warrant but it is quite likely that they already know the search was fine -- they just need to make the motion just in case they can disqualify even a % of the evidence found against Josh. But unlike civil cases though, charges can definitely be added on here. Judges hate it but it's done all the time -- the prosecutors charge what they have probable cause to charge right now but keep investigating and if such investigation shows hey here's another charge say for distribution of CP (just a hypothetical - not saying that's the case), they bring a superceding indictment adding that charge.

In terms of can he live on the property but just in a trailer -- depends on how they convince the judge and what she agrees to. I'd venture to guess no just because of the sheer number of kids on that property -- his own but also the younger kids in the TTH as well as the nieces/nephews who live in different homes on that compound. Don't Joe and JD have houses on that property? Who is going to watch him all day long to make sure no kid goes into his trailer? I mean I guess the kids' parents should be watching them at all times but IDK that family strikes me as chaos and I'm unclear who watches the kids anyway -- though no way they're saying that in front of a judge. Watching him is easier insofar as the probation office can set the ankle monitor so alarms go off if he wanders more than x ft away from his trailer. The other problem of forcing an adult to live with him -- likely that person can't have a computer or phone or anything. I mean Josh has a problem and likely can't have any access to devices, so the person who lives with him can't have devices laying around tempting Josh. I suppose the court would/could allow a phone (on the theory that the minder is to keep the phone on his person at all times) but not a computer.

Any idea where Josh is living once bond is posted? It won't be with Anna since the judge has already said that if there is bond, one of the conditions is no minor children in the home. I mean I guess he could live with Anna if she gives away her children but even still I don't think any court would trust an arrangement where the kids are easily accessible to Josh at the TTH. I imagine all of the married kids in Arkansas have told JB HELL NO; the married kids outside Arkansas aren't an option because the court isn't going to let him live out of state. Didn't Jer have an apartment with Jed at one point; it was kind of for show but they did seem to have some living set up there to be able to say of course Jed the politician has his own place in the right district. I guess Josh could live there with Jer? Though Jer is probably trying to get himself married off by tomorrow so he too can have the ability to say no like his siblings with spouses. I would hope that for something so heinous ALL the kids are given the opportunity to tell JB no I can't/won't do this. I mean probably not but for something like this it is NO siblings responsibility to take one for the team. Though I'm unclear on why he has to live with someone. I wonder if that'll be a release condition from the court. It isn't any other person's obligation to watch you. Throw an ankle monitor on him so the Probation Office (I know he isn't on probation but that's usually the office in federal court that monitors supervised release of all types) can keep tabs on him and throw him in some unused warehouse and that's that.

This is the very first step right after Josh was publicly advised of the charges last week. The case is ongoing but no meaningful discovery yet. I haven't seen a scheduling order yet -- that'll tell the lawyers the dates by which they need to exchange documents; take depositions if any including tech/forensic experts etc. So no his lawyers at this point realistically don't fully know what they're up against -- they mostly know what Josh is telling them (they do have access to their client but right now have been focused on getting him out of prison first).

You can absolutely ask for probable cause if someone comes to execute a search. Often in practice they don't necessarily hand you the warrant, they just say they're the feds here to execute a search and people consent. But if you ask for the warrant, they must provide it. And yes I've litigated for 15 years I know that by the time there's a warrant, there's probable cause already and you don't have to satisfy anyone's attorney BUT IRL at least in my (east coast) federal district, let's be honest -- often a white male defendant CAN say, I want to call my lawyer about this and yes the FBI will cool their heels for 5 min and 100% of the attorneys you'll call will say -- the FBI is at your door with a warrant, they get to search, step aside. Yep 100% there will be a motion to dismiss as a matter of law. It's not about winning the motion or not but if you don't make the motion, it suggests you have no confidence in your own case. It won't be about the facts of what Josh did but more than the government can't prove every element of the crime so he can't be convicted anyway so let's just dismiss it.

In the 80s-90s there used to be all these ads on TV in the middle of the day re correspondence courses that you could basically do on paper -- like they'd send you books, you'd do your work on paper and mail it back. Pre internet. How great if any of those still exist and Josh can take a course on book keeping or whatever. LOL. Not that he'd do anything useful. He has an addiction. JB should just get him hooked on video games. I know guys his age who can play video games 12 hrs a day, eat and sleep and the day is done. Just reward him and his behavior with an xbox, he'll be fine.

I saw a clip from I guess the episode that was put together in 2015 where they asked Anna what if anything she knew about Josh and his sisters and why did she marry him if she knew. She goes on about how when she and her parents visited the Duggars, Josh sat down with her parents and "shared his heart" and the mistakes he had made blah blah. Of course neither Josh nor JB said -- so here's the deal Josh touched x # of sisters over a y month span. You know it was fundie bullshit of "when I was young, I made mistakes, I had thoughts, but I've since grown as a man and repented and become even more Godly." You know she 100% believed it. You know her moron parents took mistakes to mean -- oh he jerked off once, what young man hasn't done that; look what a Godly man to even tell us and to repent so hard for so many years. So with Jed and Justin's wives families, I'm sure Jed and Justin said nothing bc this isn't their issue. But I imagine JB in some roundabout way talked about raising sons and how along the way some of them have made mistakes and society has jumped so hard about those mistakes and keeps pestering them (that damn DOJ and their pestering LOL), but all have repented so hard; it doesn't matter what society thinks of us just God, and look at the beautiful families they have now within the Duggar empire, your daughters could have that too if they marry Jed and Justin. So in JB's mind -- yes I told Jed and Justin's wives families that mistakes had been made (and maybe that the gov't is pestering us), I didn't hide the ball, they wanted to marry in regardless. And in the father in laws minds it's WAIT THAT is what he meant regarding mistakes made?? I figured he and his sons were undergoing a tax audit or something!?

As a non legal matter, what do you suppose Anna has told her kids? They have to be asking where daddy went; if they know he’s in jail then they have to be asking why. And assuming Anna is not in isolation with them and isn’t answering their questions to their satisfaction, there’s got to be one kid who is persistent asking anyone he sees from Aunt Jana to Grandpa to Uncle JD. What do you say when the crime is one involving looking at kids THEIR age??? Do you just play the - God is testing daddy’s and all our faith - and refuse to give details?

Likely yes. I’m not a constitutional lawyer at all but this sounds like a set up for - this search wasn’t conducted properly (either the IPhone or the computer or both) so any evidence coming from these search is inadmissible. That sounds like an argument Jim Bob came up with. Reality is if they had a warrant, they had already gone to court to show probable cause of a crime — the search was fine. What Josh could have done is denied consent to search until they showed him or his atty probable cause - they would have cooled their jets long enough to send the warrant to the atty who’d then tell him he must cooperate - but he didn’t know to do that.

I’ve checked out of this for the last week since I figured no news until the bond hearing. Has anyone seen the full motion for bond? I prefer the actual legal document rather than news articles about it. From the summary above they seem to have made exactly the standard form argument I’d expect — just bc he looks at porn doesn’t mean he harms kids + pregnant wife at home needing care + you can trust them they’re a famous family in this town. However it’s already been said at the initial hearing that any living situation can’t involve kids. I don’t see the judge suddenly being cool with him being with 6 minor children who likely have not been interviewed with bc the thing he’s being accused of IS a crime against children. It’s not just that doing something physical is a crime against children. As for the pregnant wife thing, I see no judicial sympathy there either. Often judges ask well does your wife have someone to go with her to the dr, to take her to the hospital if she goes into labor tonight, to watch the other kids if she’s in the hospital, and to take care of her for say 2 weeks when she comes home w a newborn with 6 other kids at home? In his case he has 80000000 family members right there, he can’t say no. I’m not saying bond will be denied. In fact I think he’ll be allowed to post a steep bond and leave with strict monitoring (ankle bracket that is used for supervised release). But I don’t see him going back to his house with Anna + 6 kids and like dozens of siblings/siblings kids a few hundred feet away. JB better clear up a warehouse someplace else for him.

Yeah I kind of felt bad for her. I mean they expect shitty treatment in this family so NBD but really to make a 15 year old catch a 9-10 am flight to Orlando and a 6 pm flight back and she gets to do NOTHING while she's there except babysit 4-6 kids, while you go out to Sbux, multiple dress shops etc. and she sits home changing your kids' diapers, just seems mean. I mean hiring an effing babysitter since you people want to live large and jet off on shopping trips!? But reality is in my area, babysitters charge about $15 for 1-2 kids; I'm in a high cost of living area but no way a babysitter in Orlando is charging less than $15 for watching 4-6 kids, when 5 are in diapers and 1 is an infant and there are 2-3 toddlers. Hell a solo babysitter probably wouldn't even take that job and make require that you hire 2 people. So $15 for an 8 hr day = $120 and for 2 babysitters that's $240. Nah we ain't paying that, just bring Addie and pay her nothing, that's cheaper bc UPTv is going to buy her ticket anyway. Win win. Who cares if it's unfair to the teenager. I also don't see the point of making Addie rush back same day? Maybe she needed to get back to make dinner, do the boys' laundry and raise the rest of G&K's kids since Kelly is making herself comfortable in Orlando. But really she just did you a favor. Let her stay in Fla a few days; sure she'd likely have to help Alyssa watch her kids but at least she wouldn't be doing EVERYTHING and she could have time to lay out by the pool, hit up Sbux with Alyssa etc.

Thing is she needs to pack these trips in there because they really only get to do this stuff when they have one kid and up until the time they are pregnant with kid #2. After that they miss out on these "fun" things because they are stuck at home with their blessings -- i.e. Whit, Erin, and Tori didn't attend. Though let's be honest Addallee was brought along as just the babysitter for Alyssa's 4 kids + I assume at some point in the day between dress shops they may have dropped off Willow and Layla too for naps etc. We didn't see Addy at any of the dress shops or in any of those pictures, not even at Starbucks with them in the morning. They all wanted a fun day out so they dumped their kids on their 15 year old sister who likely had no way to say no as she was probably pressured by Kelly about how it'll be sooooo fun to be in Fla for the day and she could sit out by Alyssa's pool blah blah -- with 6 kids who don't properly swim and like 5 of them are in diapers so she basically fed and changed them all day. So since she was minding 4-6 kids, Whit, Erin and Tori could have bullied Ellie and Callie into minding their 9 kids so they could have gone too . . . . Though really we don't see them doing that, after both kids are here outside of mom's body, the fun stops. At least this is the last sister wedding for a stretch. It'll be a few years before Addie and Ellie's weddings and reality is those shopping trips etc. will just be Addie/Ellie/Callie as all the other sisters and sisters in law will be tied down to multiple babies by then. And yeah I'm not sure someone who is over 30 weeks pregnant and on drugs for a clotting disorder should really be flying around for 4 hrs in the same day. I mean this isn't like I'm a trial attorney and need to fly down to Fla. to take a deposition and fly back the same night. It's freaking wedding dress shopping!?

Look at the lifestyle on this clan -- Katie, Carlin, Josie have all been posting videos about flying down to Fla. to go wedding dress shopping with Katie. In Carlin's case she jetted off right from Nashville after her brother in law's wedding saying it was a last minute thing. Josie had her baby shower yesterday so she left this morning with Addie and Kelly. I know investment bankers who jet around less than this clan. I mean of course I'm sure this is being filmed for the show so I'm sure all flights are comped and they're crashing with Alyssa for one night or renting an AirBnb. But damn G&K have gotten their kids used to a lifestyle that they just cannot support on their own when the show goes away. Evan and John for example constantly talk about money being tight with young families -- and they're two of the more skilled sons in law earning steady money -- so I'm not thinking that 5 years from now Evan will be like oh sure honey jet off to Fla for the night, we can grab a $400 last minute plane ticket, no problem. And I know the pandemic is over for many many people but damn these people don't even try -- Addie is in the airport wearing a mask that is 5 sizes too big -- like 3 inch gaps everywhere and the mask itself is so big that it sits below the nose and mouth!? And then breakfast in Fla at Starbucks, Katie is in there with a mask below the nose and Carlin no mask at all. Too bad they've all done IG lives lately and I didn't think about it -- I totally want to ask who in their family is vaccinated. I am betting no one because they're such social media whores that if they were vaccinated, they'd take pictures of themselves getting the shot or holding the vaccine card.

Federal grand juries are secret. You don’t know they’re convening or what charges they’re considering. The defendant to be does not appear before the grand jury. The defendant, his family, and the world learn of the charges upon indictment. Given that this isn’t a big city and the Duggars are well known and we’re hearing that they knew an arrest was coming - there may have been some minor leaks where a grand juror tells his sister in law one of the indictments presented is the Duggar’s and she casually tells a friend at work and somehow JB hears and assumes Josh knowing the things he does. But officially a grand jury is 100% secret and no Duggar appeared before it or knew the exact charges until they dropped.

Totally irrelevant but did anyone notice in Jason’s wedding pics a few weeks ago in a Duggar brother pic, Josh was there front and center next to the groom with his arm around him?? I remember noticing and thinking WTH - bc the family usually excludes Josh from pictures at least those they’ll publicly share or sticks him on the end where he can be cropped out easily if TLC is filming. I remembered thinking then - why is this bloated sleaze front and center, does the groom want him there? Who knows though. Rumor has it they knew an arrest was coming so maybe JB and Michele wanted a pic of all of their sons together w/o one missing for the next 5-20 yrs or on visitors day w one in a standard issue jump suit. JB & M may have pushed the - make these weddings as happy as possible bc who knows when our next normal family event will be - angle. No idea how to find that pic now as I can’t recall who posted it plus I think pics w Josh have likely been deleted by now.

I can very much see JD, Joseph, Josiah, Jill (for other reasons), Joy, and Jinger limiting family size because of this. Not saying they’ll all have 2 kids; but I do think they love their kids and want a healthier environment than the one they were raised in which requires mom and dad being in control and not being overwhelmed. That may be 3 kids for some couples and 6 for another but I really think all of them will fear situations where they don’t know exactly what their older kids are doing. I think Smug Jessa and Jed - who reminds me of JB Jr. - will carry on; and Justin strikes me as too young and dumb to understand what the problem is here.

@Tdoc72 so yeah in federal cases, the issue of how many images does come up in these cases. There isn't like a threshold number or %. But generally speaking people don't get indicted if they have 1000s of adult porn images and 2 or even 10 child porn mixed in because it assumed that they didn't know what they were downloading. For this case though remember they had to go to a grand jury first -- so in order to even get to the point there there's an indictment and an arrest, prosecutors had to go before a grand jury and prove to that jury that there's probable cause that a crime has been committed. If the grand jury didn't agree because there were 1-2 videos or whatever, we wouldn't even be at this stage. Plus I have to assume surveillance has gotten really good as tech has good really good. If someone downloaded an accidental 10 files amongst 1000s of other downloads, surveillance can likely tell if they skipped over those images in 2 seconds or hit delete as soon as they opened them; or if they spent hours on those images. Again not my area of practice but these cases come up a lot in fed court sadly.

It's not that he had to work hard, those disgusting images are out there on the dark web. But yeah it isn't like adult porn; there's an entire adult porn industry that makes videos etc. by paying consenting adults to film them. It's different with kids -- what makes it illegal is that kids by statutory definition cannot consent. People have all kinds of kinky interests -- so they watch adults; true sick criminal types like Josh are the ones with interests in kids.

So being off at court myself this morning (for work not personally), I am just now catching up to the Duggar charges. Has anyone seen a criminal complaint/criminal information -- the charging document that lays out the exact charges? It could be under seal (as in not publicaly visible) since this involves a child related issue. Usually way more informative to read the court document than news media.

So yes it can take over a year to bring charges sometimes. Sometimes it's that they saw some internet history or whatever in that raid but he didn't have stored pics of kids, so they couldn't charge with possession or the transmission of images wasn't there on his computers. But whatever they saw there may have made them suspicious. Then they'd have to go to court to get judges to authorize electronic surveillances (kind of like wire taps but for computers) to monitor what was coming off of the servers/ISP providers off the Duggar compound; sometimes those orders are granted for a time period -- like you can't/don't just surveil for one day or one week and say -- aha see child porn. Frankly with as large a family living on one compound all using the same ISPs, as well as multiple brothers working at the same business using the same computers, you have to be very careful to charge the right person with the right thing. You don't just go charging just because there's some child porn being transmitted someplace in the Duggar vicinity -- you have to know WHO is doing it. That sort of thing, the required subpoenas etc. do take time. I actually don't think this is the beginning of charges against the Duggars overall. I think it's a specific child porn issue with some specific pedo -- and child porn very much falls within the mission of DOJ right now as it has ties to child trafficking etc. -- so they crack down on that. -Fed ct lawyer though I don't practice in this area specifically. I will say though when I saw that he'd been arrested yesterday, in my heart of hearts I knew it was porn, molestation, something sexual -- NOT just merely financial. Something isn't right with him between his sisters, Ashley Madison, and seeking out prostitutes and that type of thing just doesn't go away because your wife has more sex with you, you make more babies, or attend a few weeks of christian counseling. These are life long type of problems.

I imagine with Josh's history this family keeps a lawyer on speed dial -- someone of the fundie or very religious persuasion that JB knows from his politics days who is a big guy in Arkansas who'll stand up and scream that Josh has been wronged and this is just to malign the Duggars. Plus I read here last night (I think the person got it from Reddit) that the family has known this arrest was coming and Josh has been mentally preparing, so even if they didn't have counsel at the ready at the time of Ashley Madison etc., they likely did this time. I know this is wrong to say but something seems wrong with that woman -- don't you think she's using this to cozy up even more to Justin. Get some more hugs and cuddling in. After all he's upset about his big brother and needs a shoulder to cry on. She seems hot for him and his brother -- I think Jason. May invite him down to Tx too to stay with them because the poor boy needs a reprieve from Arkansas and he can cry on Hil's shoulder too.

So I haven't followed this show in years -- don't really watch Counting On. Why do people keep referring to the warehouse? Is that the same warehouse were Ben lived when he was courting Jessa? Because as I remember it all that had was a single room upstairs -- like how would a family with 7 kids live there? Were they not living in that house Grandma Mary used to own?

Usually yes. Depending on what the charges are sometimes the time can be light -- like a year in prison and then 3-5 years of supervised release with the ankle bracelet (the federal equivalent of probation) which for this family is NBD because they spend all day every day on the compound anyway so more time to pray and make babies. But it may not be a light sentence IF it's a financial/tax fraud that he's been engaged in over years and years; the lighter sentences are like for a one time embezzlement and you never did it again. If they've been manipulating income/not paying taxes/money laundering for years, that's a different type of charge with a higher sentence because it'll be a larger amount of financial "damage" to the gov't if they haven't paid taxes or to their victims say if they've money laundered. Though aren't all of their fortunes tied here? If this IS a financial fraud type of thing, you know it was set up by JB because Josh isn't bright enough to do that. But I have a heard time believing it was just set up by JB for Josh ALONE. All of the brothers and Ben work in the same ridiculous "businesses" like warehouse leasing or towing or the car lot -- they're all drawing income from any such fraud. But I wonder if the difference is that JB and Josh knew it was a fraud whereas Ben and co. were like -- what I got a paycheck for sweeping the garage and selling a car last month. IDK because this is Josh alone -- and not JB or any of the brothers -- and given his history with his sisters; Ashley Madison; and prostitution -- IDK I feel like there could be something more and something more sordid than financial crime. I'm a fed court lawyer not a therapist but those kinds of problems don't just get fixed because your wife makes 3 more babies with you and is more attentive to your needs and you go to a few weeks of Christian counseling here and there.

This family is just sad. 19 year old Jackson — everyone has heard the song I’ll be Home for Christmas but not many people understand the meaning behind it because they haven’t been away. Yes Jackson most guys your age have been away and don’t live with mommy and daddy — it’s called going off to college or living wherever your military post may be. Going off to Alert camp for all of 8 wks doesn’t suddenly make you a man with SUCH a hard life compared to your peers. 🙄 Interesting how in this family even the guys are losers until they can fit someone who wants them to hit it (post marriage of course). I mean they all basically treated Nathan like a loser. Z at one time went on about how “unique” he is with a total negative connotation and how who knows if he’ll ever settle down — ie what girl would want him. Now he rolls in with a girl and Z&W are racing to meet her, Carlin — who otherwise basically ignores Nathan — is throwing a bonfire to have them over and cozying up to her, and Erin/Carlin/Josie/Alyssa are all cooing over how they met. Interesting how the guys run their own relationships. None of the courting garbage. He asked her to be his gf; he has been talking to her for a YEAR. Kelly practically drags her 19 yr old sons in law down the aisle after a year but the guys can leisurely date a girl for years. This family lives like there is no Covid. Wish they’d just be honest — most/all of us had it and we think a pandemic is NBD so we’re going to carry on. Nope instead Kelly has to mention having a safe Christmas party. Yup it’s super safe to have all your sons in law over who work inside other people’s homes; to have people fly in from NJ and Fla; to add additional people to the party like Kelton’s dad and Whit’s parents; to hang out indoors; to eat communal buffet food; to sing and project all your respiratory particles; and to do it all without a mask in sight.