S28.E08: Bag of Tricks

[KimberStormer]

I thought I could hear the sobbing gasps of thousands of Survivor-loving women when the fourth vote for LJ came out of that urn.  At least he'll be on the jury, but I have a feeling LJ's going to be one of those people who are more attractive on the island than all cleaned up (although really in my opinion that goes for just about everyone.)

Tony has obviously moved too soon, but I actually don't think that LJ will hold it against him.  He just seemed so chill in his goodbye confessional (as well as, you know, at every other time.)  He might vote for Tony out of respect.  I dunno if anyone else will, though.  It was amusing to hear Kass saying "it's too soon" when she made her move approximately half a season too soon.

To me not talking to Tasha was the kind of smart thing that we rarely see.  LJ thought Tony was paranoid about Woo, so why make him paranoid about you?  He was right that there was absolutely nothing she could have offered him, especially right then.  I suppose he should have just said "I can't" when she asked him to talk, but I don't think he expected her to say that right then.  Hilarious that Tasha was once again foiled in her attempt to sneak off and scheme and play Survivor the way she wants to.

Trish, for my money, continues to be far and away the best player out there, the only one this entire season who apparently uses her brain when talking to (or rather being talked to by) Tony.  Everyone else goes right along with him, but she stops to think, you know, this bullshit story doesn't make any sense.  I don't think she'll ever get any credit for it, not by the jury if she makes it that far, certainly not by Jeff and the producers.

My poor little Jefra's all alone out there!  Hang in there sweetie!

Edited April 17, 2014 by KimberStormer

[90PercentGravity]

I thought I could hear the sobbing gasps of thousands of Survivor-loving women when the fourth vote for LJ came out of that urn.

 

I fully admit I yelled at the TV, an activity I generally reserve for Game of Thrones and hockey.

[viajero]

This game really is wide open next week.  I could see almost anything happening.  It really is a great season.

 

Anyone else think Kass was trying to start making her case to the jury last night? She made decent arguments, but Sarah and Morgan weren't having it. I think they're both a couple of brats, so it doesn't surprise me that neither of them could be adult and listen to someone they don't like (in this case, Kass) making a surprisingly reasonably rational argument for why she did what she did, even if it got them booted from the game.

Kass made the distinction between game play and real life.  But I didn’t hear any rational argument for her flip.  Probably because there is none.  Not unless her objective is to, at best, be dragged to the final as a goat with no chance of winning.

[EC Amber]

Kass: who, aw, never mind.  Just fuck her;

Oh god thank you!! I haven't laughed like that all day. 

[Turtle]

The game really is wide open this season, and I'm loving it.  These people are actually trying to play the game (with mixed results), and it's fun to watch in a way it hasn't been in a while.  

I can't decide how I feel about Tony's game.  On one hand, Tony seems to be manipulating people pretty well, without them realizing it (e.g., telling Sarah that Cliff wanted her out, telling Woo that LJ was gunning for him).  On the other hand, Tony is playing haaarrrdd, pretty early in the game, which rarely works out long-term.  So I just don't know.  

I'm becoming more impressed with Spencer every week.  He seemed willing to take advantage of Tony's paranoia this vote, but I got the impression that he wasn't 100% trusting Tony, and didn't plan to stick with him. I think Spencer and Tash have a really strong alliance, and if they can keep up the immunity wins, and/or continue to take advantage of the other tribe eating itself (a la Sandra's "anyone but me" strategy), they may just get to the finals.  Which would be brilliant.

[Miss Scarlet]

 

The game really is wide open this season, and I'm loving it.  These people are actually trying to play the game (with mixed results), and it's fun to watch in a way it hasn't been in a while.

I'm really liking this season too, which is why I was surprised when I realized there's no one I actually want to win. Like I think the tribal councils have been exciting and there's been interesting game play, but I guess I just don't feel like the people that could win are all that likable? I was enjoying Tony, but he kind of lost me with his yelling after receiving votes at the last TC. Did he really think the other alliance would never target him? I'm also starting to notice what people have been pointing out with how he talks over other people and can be kind of rude.

I alternate between liking Spencer and thinking he's arrogant/annoying. I do think that if he had been on a good tribe in the beginning and hadn't been such an underdog, he probably would have been insufferable.

Sometimes I like Tasha, but she's sort of just there. She also has blow-ups that are uncomfortable to watch (like in the first episode when she yelled at Garrett to quit. I understood it was frustrating for her, but still, you gotta keep it together).

I think Trish has been playing the best game, but all the Lindsey stuff was super uncomfortable and I just don't see her getting credit from the jury for the moves she's made. I don't think people realize that she's actually been more effective than Tony. Other than his move to get out LJ, Tony's plans haven't really worked. Trish's plans have.

[Alapaki]

Anyone else think Kass was trying to start making her case to the jury last night? She made decent arguments, but Sarah and Morgan weren't having it. I think they're both a couple of brats, so it doesn't surprise me that neither of them could be adult and listen to someone they don't like (in this case, Kass) making a surprisingly reasonably rational argument for why she did what she did, even if it got them booted from the game.

Kass made the distinction between game play and real life.  But I didn’t hear any rational argument for her flip.  Probably because there is none.  Not unless her objective is to, at best, be dragged to the final as a goat with no chance of winning.

 

I agree with Viajero.  Maybe it's because Kass has thoroughly pissed me off with her game-stupidity (which she delusionally sees as brilliance).  But I thought her comment was an attempt to humble-brag about what a great person she is IRL, and an allegation that everyone is going to play just as stupidly, I mean, brilliantly, as she has up to this point.

And since Kass likes to brag so much about her trial-lawyer skills.  Let's break this shit down.

You know what one part of trial litigation is?  Jury Selection.

You know what you do with someone who you're pretty sure will never give your side a fair hearing or be willing to vote for your side? KEEP THEM OFF THE JURY!!!

And, back to Survivor, you know what you do with someone who is pretty sure to get no votes for $1 million? KEEP THEM NEXT TO YOU AT FTC!!!!

And, when that "someone" is one and the same (i.e. Morgan), YOU DON'T VOTE THEM OUT OF THE GAME AND ONTO THE JURY!!!!!

[ratgirlagogo]

 

Wow... this season is already easily the best in recent memory and, at least for me, in the Top 5 of all time.

Oh yeah.  It's remiinding me why I started watching in the first place.

 

I had the same reaction to LJ just standing her up.  It's usually a good idea to keep your options open, and had his plan gone right, Tasha would have been on the jury eventually, so it made no sense to just ignore her.

Yes, I couldn't figure out LJ's reasoning on this.  Was he afraid that this would somehow escalate Tony's paranoia? 

 

I just wish we could find a way to convince Probst that Russell was not a freaking Survivor genius who lost twice due to bitter juries but a bully who pissed off people for no good reason and taken to the finals as a goat.

The twisted thing is that Probst knows better than the audience does how and why Natalie White won over Russell in the first place.  He has to have seen at least some good chunk of the unedited footage.  Russell had ONE HUNDRED AND FIVE confessionals throughout the season, Natalie had FIFTEEN.  More than any other season, Samoa was edited to make the audience THINK that the winner only won because of a "bitter jury."  My ass.  Russell got NO votes from the jury, because he didn't deserve any votes.

And, yes, I agree with ProfCrash that Tony is no Russell.  He's playing hard, too hard maybe, but he's playing.  He's making an effort to maintain good relatioinships with the other players and not just bullying people in some kind of mistaken idea of "winning Survior through intimidation."

I am still rooting for Tasha, fingers crossed.  This vote leaves Spencer, Jeremiah, and her in a surprisingly good position, Spencer and her especially, I think.  The thing about being on a terrible losing team and surviving a bunch of tribal councils is that you begin to get pretty good at surviving tribal councils. I'm thinking Malcolm and Denise from Phillippines.

Edited April 18, 2014 by ratgirlagogo

[ProfCrash]

I think Probst is taking Tony's loud because that his personality and confusing it with Russell loud because I am a bullying asshole personality. Loud can mean different thing. I like that Tony is thinking about making big moves, I think his timing is off, but he is not doing things just to piss people off (Russell) or create chaos (Kass).

Tony was right, LJ was a threat that needed to go. But so are Spenser and Jeremiah for pretty similar reasons. All three give the appearence of being challenge contenders. Spenser has actually won a challenge. All three have people who are pretty much guarenteed votes if they get to the final tribal. You don't want to sit next to any of the three of them. Two are in a rival alliance who are more dangerous at FTC because if they end up there then they will have played a great game to survive a 6-3 alliance deficit and because they will have four votes (assuming only one of them makes it) on the jury. I am not including Tasha in this only because she had immunity.

So Tony should get rid of Spenser and Jeremiah before LJ. At least Tony could make the argument at FTC that he brought LJ into the new alliance and was willing to save him with his immunity necklace. Heck, Tony can point to the fact that he wanted to work with LJ badly enough that he voted out Cliff in order to protect LJ. So if LJ is at the FTC next to Tony, he is only there because of a decision that Tony made and because Tony chose to protect LJ. Tony cannot make that argument with Jeremiah and Spenser.

If Tony ends up next to one of the Jeremiah/Spenser/Tasha alliance he has to try and convince the people he voted off because they were in a different alliance and the people onhis own alliance that he backstabbed that they should vote for him over one of the three. That aint happening.

So good on thinking about making moves but bad timing. Heck, wait for six and bring Kass in with the Brawn in order to get rid of LJ and Jefra, then Kass and Tony is in a great place. I have a feeling that his downfall is going to be the fact that he came into the game with the idea that he came into the game with the idea that he had to make big moves, plural. He made a solid play getting rid of Cliff, he didn't need another big move.

[Eggman]

I guess I just don't feel like the people that could win are all that likable?

I've often said that wanting to have someone to root for in Survivor, or someone winning who is likable,  is actually a liability for following Survivor as a show.  IMO, the show is easier to appreciate if you just take everyone as they are and don't consider them as people you do or don't like.  After all, most of them are edited to a type, or shown only in unflattering interactions, or had their faults disguised, or even unfairly edited right off the show.    They are all individuals.  All I do is find my zen place and just watch.

[KimberStormer]

That's an interesting perspective Eggman but I don't have that zen mellow, I guess.  All my favorite seasons are ones where I had a strong rooting interest in someone who made it to the finale, even if they didn't win.  It does put me on a different track than the Survivor Fan Aggregate Opinion: I really don't like Cook Islands because I don't like the Aitu 4, I do like One World because I love Kim.  I feel like it balances out in the end, especially since I like most people. 

My interest in this season is slowly petering out because of just this issue, though, and also because, like Philippines, I don't actually believe that everyone in the cast is pretty good at Survivor, I rather feel that everyone is mediocre.  It's like, a lot of people think that everyone was an idiot on One World but Kim, who was an average player, whereas on this season everyone is playing well.  But I think the opposite: most everyone on One World was about as good as everyone on this season, but there was Kim the Survivor genius just crushing them.  This season there is no Kim, and that parity is great for exciting TV, but it means that I can't root for anyone based purely on gameplay, so I can only root for people I like.  And the only one left who I really like is Jefra, and it's very hard to imagine she's winning with her edit.  (Yes there is the Natalie precedent, but there's no Russell this time around to suck up all the screentime.  Not even Tony.)  I'm still watching and enjoying but it's not the omg I need to see what happens feeling I had before.

[ProfCrash]

See, I think Tony is close to playing a Kim style game. He was in the middle of things in the original Brawn tribe. He easily turned Sarah based on their shared profession and picking up on Cliff/Lindsey/Woo cliquish behavior. That set up removing Cliff. Tony is seen as everyones main alliance and he has managed to take advatange of the fact that Woo/LJ/Jefra seem to have isolated themselves within the larger alliance. Trish was talking with LJ/Jefra/Kass but not Woo. All the different groups are bringing their issues and concerns to Tony. So they all trust Tony.

I think we are putting too much emphasis on how loud Tony comes across and missing the fact that he is connected to everyone and that everyone else seems to be missing that fact. Tony is seen as a threat by Spenser/Tasha/Jeremiah but not within his own alliance.

If Tony had waited two votes, I think he was safely in Kim territory.

Tirsh is playing a good game now. Her initial misteps won't even haunt her on the jury. Spenser is playing a really solid game, a few misteps here or there but overall a good game. I think Tasha has been pretty solid. Jeremiah has recovered from his initial Morgan/Brice blunder that could have hurt him but is not really making moves. He is working with Spenser but people don't seem to approach him. Kass is a disaster who think she is great. Jefra is ok but seems to be floating.

[Subrookie]

I think Spencer had no choice......as long as there was another road to take that wasn't voting him or Tasha off, I think he would have been willing to take it.

He may have had no choice, but the editing suggested he was following along with anything Tony said. Tony obviously had it out for LJ but they only needed one more vote to swing the outcome that took LJ out. Spencer could have been that vote.

Regardless, I don't see a whole lot of strategic play by Spencer or Woo. That could change if Spencer uses the idol to make a move though. 

[ProfCrash]

Spenser had a couple of options

1) Go with Tony and blindside LJ. His alliance lives to fight another day and he saves the immunity idol. Instead of being voted out, he and his alliance survive a tribal, he has his idol, and the dominant alliance is potentially broken up, saving Spenser, Tasha, and Jeremiah for more then just one tribal.

2) Take Tony's offer to LJ and try and blow things up there. This could backfire on Spenser. LJ goes and chats with Tony, Tony denies it saying Spenser is desperate and lying. Spenser goes home. LJ goes and talks with the rest of his alliance and the five vote out Tony. Spenser survives another tribal or two but the main alliance remains unfractured and he potentially loses Tasha and Jeremiah.

Spenser's best move is to take guarenteed safety this week, implied safety due to his HII idol next week, and the possible implossion of the remaining five members of the old alliance. With LJ gone, Jefra is now fifth, maybe fourth in her alliance. Her main alliance partner is gone, why not go join the other three and be a strong four there with the possibility to move up calling on her past alliance with Jeremiah. Kass is a wild card who could decide to do whatever the hell she wants, including moving to work with her old alliance to get out Tony.

Either way, the result is safety for his alliance and the other alliance scrambling, which is best for Spenser. Why risk that?

[KimberStormer]

If Tony had waited two votes, I think he was safely in Kim territory.

 

That's a big mistake, though--removing the possibility of splitting votes when he knows for a fact that there is an idol out there.  I also don't see Kim ever blowing up at people for voting for her the way Tony did this episode.

Don't get me wrong, I think he's playing well enough, and I love a big player playing big, even if it's not too smart.  I like Tony for the most part, but the aforementioned blow-up and the talking over people instead of listening to them keeps me from totally liking him as a person, and his mistakes keep me from totally liking him as a player.

I agree that Jeremiah, Spencer, Tasha, and especially Trish are playing pretty good games, but other than Trish's work on Kass none of them have done the kind of Survivor wizardry that I really love.  I also don't think Trish is going to win, even if she gets to the end, which is a drag.  I dunno, I think this is a great season objectively, I've just started to get less excited about it.  I want a Malcolm, a Cirie, a Courtney in there I can really love.

[ReadingZombie]

I agree with Viajero.  Maybe it's because Kass has thoroughly pissed me off with her game-stupidity (which she delusionally sees as brilliance).  But I thought her comment was an attempt to humble-brag about what a great person she is IRL, and an allegation that everyone is going to play just as stupidly, I mean, brilliantly, as she has up to this point.

 

Good points. I think the lack of #KhaosKass this episode had me fooled into given her more credit than warranted.

Edited April 18, 2014 by ReadingZombie

[Kromm]

Tony may be getting his way, but he's SO overplaying this.  He was never in any real danger.

I know most of these people are plum stupid. But its got to be get crystal clear to them fairly soon that a paranoid overplaying freak is pushing them all around, and then Tony's goose is cooked.  This season is going to be won by a soft-peddling player, not a hard peddling one.

Edited April 19, 2014 by Kromm

[Miss Scarlet]

 

Trish, for my money, continues to be far and away the best player out there, the only one this entire season who apparently uses her brain when talking to (or rather being talked to by) Tony.  Everyone else goes right along with him, but she stops to think, you know, this bullshit story doesn't make any sense.  I don't think she'll ever get any credit for it, not by the jury if she makes it that far, certainly not by Jeff and the producers.

I totally agree with this. She is the most effective player out there and it saddens me to know that she probably won't receive proper credit. The editing of women on this show will never stop annoying me.

[Kromm]

I totally agree with this. She is the most effective player out there and it saddens me to know that she probably won't receive proper credit. The editing of women on this show will never stop annoying me.

It would  be fun to see her win, and then Jeff act like the guys on the season were the only ones who mattered.

[Way Wes Jr]

Wow.  This could go so many ways.  Tony (the true agent of Kaos,) is going to have hard work ahead trying to reel Jefra and Kass back to trusting him, and Trish will be reevaluating her alliance.  Spencer, Tasha, (and Jeremiah,) can use this opportunity to forge a new majority alliance.  Tony can be shown to have Kim S.-like powers and bring his majority back into the fold,(until it is time to cut Woo loose.)  And the “next-time on Survivor,” seemed deliberately vague as far as the political situation on the island is concerned.

1. Spenser (7)  You have the (regular) HII.  While you don’t trust (or like) Kass, I bet you can swing her away from Tony and Woo, and I bet Jeremiah can bring Jefra over. 

2. Tasha (8)  See above, minus the HII.  Actually, you’ll probably be the one to swing Kass back into the fold.  [Kass, Jefra, and Trish ought to make a play for a 4-4 rock draw, but that doesn’t benefit you in the current climate.]

3. Kass (3)  Still in goat position.  I bet with proper use of flattery, Spenser and Tasha can make you think that you’re “back” in charge. [And we’re back to the anvil of foreshadowing.]

4. Jefra (5)  Let’s see: Spenser - fox, Tasha - bear, Kass - goat, you - bunny.  Yeah, that fits.

5. Jeremiah (9) “Immunity threat” member who thinks he’s part of the main alliance.  Best case scenario? Late Immunity run to become Fabio 2.0.  [Jeremiah hasn’t shown himself to be a challenge threat, but I’m not sure the cultural bias cloud can be lifted from the players eyes.]

6. Trish (1) Tony wasn’t being overly paranoid as much as he was overplaying his hand, and making a move too early.  Thus screwing over the game of the remaining “brawns.”  You’re one of the better players on the island, and the editing is really trying to hide it - I think Tony’s screw up is the reason.

7. Woo (4)  Because you’re not the primary target.
8. Tony (2) You are. 

GONE LJ (6)  You were going to play a more classic numbers game, and make your move against Tony/Woo at six (or seven,) however, as an all-newbies season not everyone is playing by “classic” rules.  [And yes, I am preaching from the mountaintop for continued seasons like this.  And shall continue.]