Winner Edit vs. Loser Edit: Discuss Amongst Yourselves

[peachmangosteen]

5 hours ago, skybolt said:

The whole smelling the armpit, getting duped by Tony regarding where to look for the idol, getting tongue tied because he couldn't lie properly ...

I forgot about that, that does make me wonder. I agree, they probably would have edited that out if he had won.

It's hard because the only person really getting a good edit is Tony imo. The only others with good edits are on EoE.

It's not that Sarah, Michele, or Denise are getting bad edits, they're just not getting good edits. But sometimes a woman winner will get that type of edit, especially if there's a big male character that TPTB really like. 

[OutOfTheQuestion]

It really feels like Tony is being presented as the eventual winner, but I was texting a friend about the show tonight and she had an interesting theory about why Tony might be tripped up at a final tribal council.  She thought if a juror asks him about his "lions vs. hyenas" strategy, a lot of jurors who won their previous seasons by playing lower-key games might not take kindly to being seen as less worthy.

Edited May 7, 2020 by OutOfTheQuestion

[violet and green]

14 hours ago, OutOfTheQuestion said:

It really feels like Tony is being presented as the eventual winner, but I was texting a friend about the show tonight and she had an interesting theory about why Tony might be tripped up at a final tribal council.  She thought if a juror asks him about his "lions vs. hyenas" strategy, a lot of jurors who won their previous seasons by playing lower-key games might not take kindly to being seen as less worthy.

It's just an analogy. He's also termed them high-profile players versus lower profile players. I think all of the lower profile players are very aware that that is how they are considered (unless they are delusional I suppose?). A lot of Michelle's edit has involved her whining about how lousy and undeserved her win was considered to be, and Nick has skulked around all season looking a bit out of his depth amongst the big dogs. Tony also called some other players 'rats' scurrying around. I don't think hyenas coming in to pick off the wounded lions is a bad analogy, and anyway a lot of what he's said in those one-to-ones about 'us' versus 'them' has been to stroke the ego of the supposed fellow high-profile types, like Ben, who is surely not a high-profile player in reality! I think Tony could explain what he meant in a mollifying way if it came down to that, anyway.

[LadyChatts]

I do wonder if Tony will get called out for show boating.  In Ghost Island, when Dominic played his idol, he made kind of a spectacle of it.  During the FTC, I believe it was Sebastian who called him out on it.  I'm thinking back to the TC where Kim got voted off, and Tony did the whole 'are you feeling comfortable' to Sarah, and making a big deal about possibly playing an idol.  Which I totally forgot he had until I saw it brought up here last night. 

It's possible if anyone asks him about the hyena/lions analogy he used (and Nick wasn't happy about being called a hyena), he could use flattery.  In reality, I don't think it was meant as an insult, but I get why people who won wouldn't want to be called a low profile player.  Especially since some winners got flack for winning with that strategy in the first place.

At this point, the only person I'm officially ruling out as Ben.  I can't see anyway he gets a redeeming edit next week, and I don't think he could beat any of the others left.  Sarah, Denise and Michele I'm up in the air with.  I do think Sarah could have an uphill battle trying to say the moves that were made were hers and/or hers and Tony's together, that all decisions were made with both of them agreeing (except obviously Sophie getting blindsided).  Michele has the underdog thing going for her.  And I think she'd be liked by the jury.  I don't know if some of the jurors will approve if she says "I'm the one who told you idiots to get rid of Tony, but ya didn't listen, did ya?"  Denise, I don't know if she was putting on a show last night and whether it will backfire on her.  Besides the Sandra move, what else has she done?  If their edit picks up or shows some big moves, then maybe they'll be a contender.  Last season, I felt Tommy went episodes with barely any airtime, and then in the finale there he was.   

Edited May 8, 2020 by LadyChatts

[SVNBob]

3 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I don't know if some of the jurors will approve if she says "I'm the one who told you idiots to get rid of Tony, but ya didn't listen, did ya?"

Worked for Sandra....

[skybolt]

On 5/7/2020 at 5:33 AM, OutOfTheQuestion said:

It really feels like Tony is being presented as the eventual winner, but I was texting a friend about the show tonight and she had an interesting theory about why Tony might be tripped up at a final tribal council.  She thought if a juror asks him about his "lions vs. hyenas" strategy, a lot of jurors who won their previous seasons by playing lower-key games might not take kindly to being seen as less worthy.

It's definitely an interesting point. My feeling is that in a season of all winners, each player has their own impression of what the ultimate survivor should encompass. For instance, I think someone like Rob totally appreciates Tony's hustle and puppet master type approach. On the flip side, another legend in Yul may believe that Tony's style of switching alliances is too erratic and not very loyal. Kim may like someone who played a more social game (at least with her) like Sarah. Parvati may like the social, flirt approach that Michelle possesses. I think Adam is similar to Spencer and likely appreciates Tony's game. Jeremy may take someone backstabbing him personally. There's so much at play here that jury votes could be all over the map.

[skybolt]

11 hours ago, violet and green said:

It's just an analogy. He's also termed them high-profile players versus lower profile players. I think all of the lower profile players are very aware that that is how they are considered (unless they are delusional I suppose?). A lot of Michelle's edit has involved her whining about how lousy and undeserved her win was considered to be, and Nick has skulked around all season looking a bit out of his depth amongst the big dogs. Tony also called some other players 'rats' scurrying around. I don't think hyenas coming in to pick off the wounded lions is a bad analogy, and anyway a lot of what he's said in those one-to-ones about 'us' versus 'them' has been to stroke the ego of the supposed fellow high-profile types, like Ben, who is surely not a high-profile player in reality! I think Tony could explain what he meant in a mollifying way if it came down to that, anyway.

I think Tony can also counter that by saying at times he played like a hyena himself. Perching himself on a tree spying on others is not exactly what a lion would do. 🙂

[skybolt]

10 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I do wonder if Tony will get called out for show boating.  In Ghost Island, when Dominic played his idol, he made kind of a spectacle of it.  During the FTC, I believe it was Sebastian who called him out on it.  I'm thinking back to the TC where Kim got voted off, and Tony did the whole 'are you feeling comfortable' to Sarah, and making a big deal about possibly playing an idol.  Which I totally forgot he had until I saw it brought up here last night. 

It's possible if anyone asks him about the hyena/lions analogy he used (and Nick wasn't happy about being called a hyena), he could use flattery.  In reality, I don't think it was meant as an insult, but I get why people who won wouldn't want to be called a low profile player.  Especially since some winners got flack for winning with that strategy in the first place.

At this point, the only person I'm officially ruling out as Ben.  I can't see anyway he gets a redeeming edit next week, and I don't think he could beat any of the others left.  Sarah, Denise and Michele I'm up in the air with.  I do think Sarah could have an uphill battle trying to say the moves that were made were hers and/or hers and Tony's together, that all decisions were made with both of them agreeing (except obviously Sophie getting blindsided).  Michele has the underdog thing going for her.  And I think she'd be liked by the jury.  I don't know if some of the jurors will approve if she says "I'm the one who told you idiots to get rid of Tony, but ya didn't listen, did ya?"  Denise, I don't know if she was putting on a show last night and whether it will backfire on her.  Besides the Sandra move, what else has she done?  If their edit picks up or shows some big moves, then maybe they'll be a contender.  Last season, I felt Tommy went episodes with barely any airtime, and then in the finale there he was.   

In all honesty, I feel like Tony showboated a lot in Cagayan, but has been more subdued at tribal this time around. Him asking Sarah and then wanting to play the idol for her was a strategic move to potentially save an ally. It's not like he taunted other players with it or did the Ben bomb thing. Even when Kim was sent home, he subtlety put his head down and his hand on Ben's knee. No showboating whatsoever.

I completely understand Denise's move at tribal, but she could've presented it better to the jury. I bet half those players walked out thinking she was about to give up. Her attempt at humor or sarcasm can be head scratching at times. For instance, when she told Jeremy she slept like a log, but then said she couldn't sleep at all, was very confusing. I was like is she using reverse psychology on herself? It just fell very flat.

[skybolt]

Who has the best chance to win based on the edits.

6.) Ben - If he had even an inkling of a chance to win the whole thing, his edit would've been somewhat positive last week. Sarah making him believe that he came up with the idea to blindside Nick, and the whole 50/50 advantage exchange with Jeremy and Michelle, cemented the fact that he's not winning. 

5.) Denise - On the surface she has a chance to win the whole thing, just based on her Sandra blindside and the jury generally liking her (she received fire tokens from Danni, Kim and Adam). However, her edits over the past 5 or 6 episodes have been non existent / dull. I would be shocked if she even made the final 3. At least Ben has been set-up to be the zero vote getter at final tribal.

4.) Returning EoE Player - This could be higher or lower on the list based on who returns. Due to the fact that only Tony has received a strong edit thus far, it does open the door for someone like Natalie to win the whole thing if Tony is eliminated early in the finale.

3.) Sarah - Sarah's edit hasn't been that bad, but I just feel like we've most seen her story through Tony's edit. If she takes out Tony before the final 3, then their whole story could come full circle.

2.) Michelle - For better or worse, we've seen her entire story play out since episode 1, even the whole pointless Wendell drama. At this point I think she's a lock for final 3, and has a decent chance to win based on the edits.

1.) Tony - Same as Michelle we've seen his whole story play out since episode 1. What puts him on top of this list is that his game play has been stronger than Michelle's. The interesting thing is that I'm not as 100% sure that he'll make the final 3 as Michelle. His accomplishment could be used to progress Sarah's story or perhaps the returning player from EoE, if they take him out. 

If I had to rank who's making final 3, I would say

1.) Michelle 2.) Ben 3.) Tony 4.) Sarah 5.) EoE player 6.) Denise

The reason why I think Ben is a lock for final 3 is that since Tony and Sarah won't turn on him at this point, the other players won't target him (especially with Jeremy gone). The returning EoE player will either target Tony or Sarah, or suck up to Tony and get out Denise or Michelle. They may even try to get Ben on board. He also has an immunity idol and will likely win the fire making challenge if it comes to that at final 4. Heck, I could even see him volunteering for that to prove himself to the jury.

Edited May 10, 2020 by skybolt

[violet and green]

Tony still has his immunity idol, too. I am not great at reading a winner's edit. I tuned out involuntarily during Kaoh Rong every time Michele spoke, as I found her so boring and her voice annoying. I'd just sort of take in her lovely coloring and the contrast of her eyes and skin tone with the foliage or maybe tidy up my coffee table. Could not believe she won. Still can't believe she won.

I would find it very hard, despite her annoying omnipresence in this season's edit, which almost made me give up the will to live during the Wendell saga, to see her winning this season as she has been so lacklustre in almost every way. But that's what I thought in Kaoh Rong and I was Kaoh Wrong.

Honestly, I would give up the will to live and take to my bed for the rest of the week if she won again, especially after all the fun of Tony this season, and all my hopes for him and his partner getting to the end without cutting each other's throats.

If Rob or Ethan or Parvati got back in, that would be exciting. Natalie's a crossfit beast, and I was happy with her win way back whenever, but I am not hoping for her to get back in at all. It's also a challenge that requires dexterity and nimbleness and her muscularity may work against her, but then she has fire and peanut butter in her belly, and 600 advantages... I don't read her edit from the last episode as a harbinger of her return, which probably means she returns.

Tony has had a consistently fun edit, and much focus has been given to his massaging of the other threats and his subtle management of many of the later votes. He laid low and kept to the shelter or made projects to benefit his tribe in the early parts of the season, and managed to keep from getting even one vote so far. He's won three improbable immunities in a row. And his edit has been consistently positive, and seems fond of his little quirks. But then I like him a lot and so that's what I see. I have high hopes he will win, but it seems almost impossible because this is 2020 and we can't have nice things.

Edited May 10, 2020 by violet and green
typo

[Eolivet]

As always, I don't know who's coming back from EoE, but I have a pretty good idea who isn't. Storytelling 101 indicates you have to foreshadow your potential returning character, and (I think?) the editors chose not to show the following players giving a confessional about how excited they were about the battle back challenge (which would remind us they are still there, and still interested in winning):

Sophie

Adam

Jeremy

Nick (I don't think?)

Then there are players who got confessionals not really about the battle back, but more about EoE/the game itself (Amber about the island, and Yul about -- what else -- fire tokens).

The rest of the players all got confessionals about the battle back, I believe, so they are fair game. I find it easier to rule players out than in, so I'm ruling the above 5-6 players out.

Who gets in is anybody's guess, though I can't decide whether they'd make it super obvious (Natalie) or not that obvious (not-Natalie). I kind of lean towards the latter, that this was Natalie's "farewell to the queen of EoE" swan song episode. But sometimes the editors are just that obvious. I guess we'll see.

[Eolivet]

Ha. This is why I don't have a published novel. I looked at Natalie's edit and went "well, that's so obvious. It's too much foreshadowing. Viewers aren't that dumb." Oops.

One interesting tidbit to come out of the spoilers thread (no spoilers since the winner is known) is the cast was asked not to go to Hearts of Reality (the annual charity event/excuse to party for mostly CBS reality stars in August) and Wendell and Adam went anyway.

Could explain their (in some ways, outsized) negative edits. It's not quite Purple Kelly, but  Survivor isn't exactly above a little revenge editing.

I also cannot believe they reverted to the "smack you in the face with editing" technique again. Lesson learned: on a returning players' season, no edit is ever too good (unless it's too early. Miss you, Game Changers Malcolm).

[OutOfTheQuestion]

I feel Tony's edit was pretty modest until the episode with his extortion and the Sophie blindside, which was as lopsided towards one person as any episode ever.  After that, it was pretty obvious he was going to win.

[Hera]

I'm reviving this thread because there's a lot of discussion about the focus on Shan and how she seems to be getting a winner's edit. For me, it's hard to separate her edit from the fact that her tribe is also the one that has had to go to tribal council a bunch. I'll call it a winner's edit when I see her featured in an episode where she has little to nothing to do with who goes home.

Personally, I think it's much more revealing that Sydney seems to get shown in each episode, even when her tribe doesn't go to tribal council. In this most recent episode (episode 5), she got the segment on fishing and how that impressed the men. So I'm guessing she goes far, or at least further than Heather and Erika, who have been mostly invisible on that tribe.

I also think Evvie will go deep, since she was also featured talking to Xander in this episode, even though she, like Sydney, had no impact on the overall storyline of the episode. I'm also guessing Danny, Deshawn, and Naseer all do something because they keep popping up as well.

[LadyChatts]

I'm always so bad at this. I am confident Heather doesn't win, because we've seen nothing of her outside of her bad challenge performance.  That's about my only good guess lol 

I think Tiffany is one to watch-not sure if she will win, but she could go far and end up losing in a FTC to bitter feelings or people who refuse to take her seriously.  When Evvie kept her over Voce, she said something along the lines of hoping she didn't regret it.  We also saw how Tiffany was able to play Xander last night when he told her something she already knew.  I'm starting to wonder if her being so terrible at challenges was all an act!  It's possible she either overplays at some point and gets blindsided, or causes people who kept her in the game to get sent packing. 

I think Evvie might be in for a rude awakening at the merge.  She seems tight with Xander, but also wanted to do the all girls alliance, but I don't think her/Tiffany/Liana are that tight.  Tiffany could do something that leads to Evvie's ouster, or Xander's, leaving Evvie without a strong alliance member.  I kind of feel like her edit might have peaked.  

With Shan/Ricard the last two standing of UA, I have no idea how that's going to go.  Shan telling Liana not to trust Ricard if she wasn't there on day 12 may still stick with Liana, despite Shan still being in the game.  I think Ricard will be more lost without Shan, but I'd like to think the little dust-up over J.D.'s advantage has some repercussions of trust with those two.  I need some excitement to happen!  Like Evvie, I feel like Shan and/or Ricard had their 15 minutes while on a losing streak at UA, and now will be seen as just an alliance number going forward (if I had to guess it’d be Ricard, but that’s only because it seems like Shan’s been doing all the work while Ricard sits around).   

I honestly don't know what to make of Luvu.  There's been too much focus on Naseer/Deshawn/Danny/Sydney, and it all has involved either throwing a challenge, or Naseer telling Sydney he wants to get rid of the two guys (and Sydney running back to the guys to tell them that), or Erika telling Deshawn she wants to get rid of Sydney (and Sydney's inner high school girl comes out at the thought that anyone would dare target her).  I doubt Erika wins, because I don't know if a winner would have been as invisible as she has been so far.

Edited October 22, 2021 by LadyChatts

[SVNBob]

2 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I doubt Erika wins, because I don't know if a winner would have been as invisible as she has been so far.

Natalie White would disagree.

[LadyChatts]

1 minute ago, SVNBob said:

Natalie White would disagree.

When I re-watched Samoa recently, I was actually surprised at how much screen time Natalie got (because I sure didn't remember it).  However, one thing Natalie had going for her that Erika doesn't is that her tribe constantly lost, so there was focus on her tribe.  With Erika, not only is her tribe winning, but there's 3 tribes to focus on, plus the challenge, TC, and the advantage island thing that she has to fight for screen time for.  It seemed like after the merge is when Natalie disappeared and it became all about Russell (even more so than it already was).  

 

[ProfCrash]

6 hours ago, SVNBob said:

Natalie White would disagree.

Shan is not Russell. The big difference here is that Shan's tribe has been losing so they have been on screen a lot. Natalie was on Russell's tribe so you did see her and hear from her but Russell dominated because of his personality.

Shan is sucking up a lot of time but that is because her tribe sucks. It is not because of her amazing play.

My thoughts on winners: Liana and Nasser are my main focus.

I don't think Heather wins because she gets no time when they show the Blue tribe. I think Nasser is in good shape. He is getting a good amount of screen time, his edit is kind of lovable goof ball with solid survival skills and a love of the game.  I think Danny and DeShawn are going to be targeted because of athletic ability and because they are personable. Nasser is getting a good edit, has good skills, and I think he is approachable without the athleticism to make him a target.

Tiffany is in better shape then we think because she is not going to be seen as a threat and she is going to be willing to change her play on a dime. Xander is toast in his tribe, athletic skills and socially a nice guy. Evvie might be playing too complicated of a game, Tiffany is already gearing up to take out Evvie and Liana will go along with it. Liana is kind of under the radar. She is flexible and open to ideas. She seems to be willing to reach out to others. Her game is not uber aggressive but that keeps the target off her back but she is playing enough to know what is happening in the game.

Shan and Ricard have no real chance to win. They are going to be tools for another tribe that will be tossed. Neither one of them are going to be winning individual immunity and their mechanations are going to be noticed by players like Evvie and DeShawn making them earlier vote outs then we think. No one is going to want to keep them around once they see how they are playing.