Speculation Thread: Total Madness

[Lantern7]

Given that the importance of the Red Skulls in Total Madness hasn't been fully explained, I'd like to offer a theory I've pitched in the last few weeks. After that, I figure we can speculate what will happen.

Teege has explained that only those who win Skulls in Purgatory will run the final. We might get a climax similar to The Island, where only those with keys could run the final mission. I think that will repeat here.

Let's say that there's a maximum number of male and female players that could run in the finale (X for each gender). When Jay was sent into Purgatory, the number of men that could run in the end went down by one; either Jay would earn a second Skull, or CT would win and knock Jay's Skull out of circulation. Jay has been sent into Purgatory for a third time, so now the number of male players that can run in the finale is (X-2). On the females' side, Jenny and Dee have earned Skulls, so the potential number of participants is still X.

I wonder if any of the players have thought of this. If Jay or Rogan is sent into Purgatory again, the number goes down to (X-3). In theory, whittling down the number of participants isn't quite the same as running a final mission with scrubs for a guaranteed win. However, if you're a guy, and there are fewer men running at the end. that might be the best case scenario. Also, if only one person wins $1 million, having more female players might be incentive for the guys to keep their numbers. Of course, some of the women on this season are capable of kicking so much ass, so either gender might focus of whittling down the number of females running in the end by sending Dee or Jenny back into Purgatory.

I don't think that having more than one Skull would directly benefit a player in terms of advantages. However, I reckon we might get a Purge or two before the season ends.

Okay, that was too much speculation. The only other thing I can add is that I'm guessing Jay will be okay after the hit Rogan laid on him. However, I think Rogan wins the Purgatory and get the Skull.

Anyone else want to share their speculation?

[Eolivet]

On 5/1/2020 at 12:00 AM, Lantern7 said:

When Jay was sent into Purgatory, the number of men that could run in the end went down by one; either Jay would earn a second Skull, or CT would win and knock Jay's Skull out of circulation. Jay has been sent into Purgatory for a third time, so now the number of male players that can run in the finale is (X-2)

This sort of came up in the episode thread, but my question is was this ever explicitly explained to the contestants? Because Jay has used this wording before, the whole "you send me in, you're taking away your own chances at a red skull," but nobody else has. So, I can't figure out if MTV never said anything and relied on them to figure it out, or if they spelled out explicitly what would happen (a.k.a. "every time you send the same player in, the number of guys/girls who qualify for the final decreases by one") and most of the contestants were too dumb or too arrogant to get it.

I can't imagine the producers thought this would result in the same player being thrown in three times, but I'm trying to figure out if the players were told this and responded, "math is hard, mmmkay?" or if MTV stupidly thought the players would be smart enough to figure it out, and therefore the blame lies at their feet. I'm kind of thinking the latter.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Eolivet

[Lantern7]

11 minutes ago, Eolivet said:

This sort of came up in the episode thread, but my question is was this ever explicitly explained to the contestants? Because Jay has used this wording before, the whole "you send me in, you're taking away your own chances at a red skull," but nobody else has. So, I can't figure out if MTV never said anything and relied on them to figure it out, or if they spelled out explicitly what would happen (a.k.a. "every time you send the same player in, the number of guys/girls who qualify for the final decreases by one") and most of the contestants were too dumb or too arrogant to get it.

I can't imagine the producers thought this would result in the same player being thrown in three times, but I'm trying to figure out if the players were told this and responded, "math is hard, mmmkay?" or if MTV stupidly thought the players would be smart enough to figure it out, and therefore the blame lies at their feet. I'm kind of thinking the latter.

Once again, my post is merely speculatory, based on logic and intelligence. Unfortunately, Teege might flip the table once of twice, throwing in twists that wreck the games of a lot of players. Remember, Teege is the dirtiest player in the game.

Onto less vague preview stuff: here's Jenna checking in with her friend Nicole regarding Zach. I couldn't find the clip on YouTube. The Challenge channel did have Jenna and Zach's fight from Rivals III. Should we be impressed when someone ruins the show from thousands of miles away?

[Lantern7]

Here's a quick Excel on where things stand.

I think there are two possibilities:

1. We get three more Purgatories (two female, one male). Anyone without a Skull would be dismissed.
2. TJ throws the Skull-needing players a bone (no pun intended) near the end, as they could contend for the Skulls lost when Jay and Jenna were eliminated.

I think the best play for someone with a Skull would be to pit two other Skull holders against each other, thereby narrowing the field.

Anyone have an idea on how things might play out that I'm missing?

[xfuse]

Something else to throw out there.

Johnny said on Worst Cook that he had seven Challenge wins. Did he count the Stars one or did he end up winning this one or was he just messing with everyone 

[Direwolf]

3 hours ago, xfuse said:

Something else to throw out there.

Johnny said on Worst Cook that he had seven Challenge wins. Did he count the Stars one or did he end up winning this one or was he just messing with everyone 

Likely including Champs vs Pros ( I hope!). 

[Never Again]

8 hours ago, xfuse said:

 

Something else to throw out there.

Johnny said on Worst Cook that he had seven Challenge wins. Did he count the Stars one or did he end up winning this one or was he just messing with everyone 

 

Welp, thanks for that possible spoiler in this no spoiler thread 

[ImpinAintEasy]

He has always counted Champs vs Pros. At least ever since he won one. I think he is too savvy to let a spoiler like that slip, even if he does win this season, which honestly, he is the favorite right now. 

[luckyroll3]

On 6/4/2020 at 2:11 AM, Lantern7 said:

Here's a quick Excel on where things stand.

I think there are two possibilities:

1. We get three more Purgatories (two female, one male). Anyone without a Skull would be dismissed.
2. TJ throws the Skull-needing players a bone (no pun intended) near the end, as they could contend for the Skulls lost when Jay and Jenna were eliminated.

I think the best play for someone with a Skull would be to pit two other Skull holders against each other, thereby narrowing the field.

Anyone have an idea on how things might play out that I'm missing?

I think there'll be one more purgatory and if the remaining players don't get tossed, they get throw into a purge situation.  

[xfuse]

22 hours ago, ImpinAintEasy said:

He has always counted Champs vs Pros. At least ever since he won one. I think he is too savvy to let a spoiler like that slip, even if he does win this season, which honestly, he is the favorite right now. 

I'm thinking that he counted Champs vs Pros also but not sure (that's why I posted it here).

I don't really think that he's the favourite right now. Both Fessy and Rogan are pretty good on the male side. Jenny and Kaycee are pretty good on the woman's side. The only advantage that Johnny might have is if there are puzzles involved. The girls might be just as good at them as he is but I don't think the guys are.

[Lantern7]

Thinking about it . . . we might wind up with another set of Double Purgatories heading into the final mission. But isn't one of the main features of this format that a few players get left out in the cold with without a Skull?

We've done ten episodes. I'll go out on a limb and say we'll be getting 17, and the last two would focus on the final mission. So maybe it'll just be girl-boy-girl and then the finale? I'm also thinking Jay and Jenna's Skulls would be made available for winning, but I think that would defeat the purpose of the format.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Lantern7

[Lantern7]

In case you didn't hear, Dee made some incendiary tweets, and then the Challenge Twitter posted this:

1 hour ago, RandomWatcher said:

My interpretation on this breaking news and the outcome of Total Madness: Dee wins $1 million.

Why not? One, this is a show where assholes get big paydays. Two, we already had a winner (Camila) who was “canceled” midway through her final season.

Or maybe it’ll be Josh. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

Edited June 9, 2020 by Lantern7

[mattman1624]

23 hours ago, Lantern7 said:

In case you didn't hear, Dee made some incendiary tweets, and then the Challenge Twitter posted this:

My interpretation on this breaking news and the outcome of Total Madness: Dee wins $1 million.

Why not? One, this is a show where assholes get big paydays. Two, we already had a winner (Camila) who was “canceled” midway through her final season.

Or maybe it’ll be Josh. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

It also could be that Dee either doesn't see Purgatory, or isn't eliminated before the Final. Therefore, she's in all the remaining episodes, and they can't cut her out of it.

[Lantern7]

Here is the updated status of the women:

My best guess: Episodes 12-13 go down as usual, and two more Skulls are awarded. Episode 14, Teege brings out the Skulls left behind by Jenna and Jay (as well as anyone who would've been eliminated with a Skull in Episodes 12-13), and puts them up for the other players. Those get awarded, and anyone without a Skull is dismissed. And then Episodes 16-17 will cover the final mission.

I still think Dee wins, because this is a show where hope goes to die, and having someone disavowed by MTV (they put up a brief PSA at the beginning! That means they mean business!) getting a million bucks seems too likely.

[Lantern7]

Updated status on the individual males:

I'm guessing there will only be one more Purgatory for them, and Jay's two Skulls won't be coming back into play. Basically, the odds that someone will be dismissed by Teege for not having a Skull are pretty slim. I could see a situation where both Josh and Kyle are left out in the cold, and two Skull-holders will battle it out in Purgatory. There's a part of me that likes weird stuff to happen, and having Josh and Kyle pitted against each other for the final Skull just seems so blah.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Lantern7

[AntFTW]

6 minutes ago, Lantern7 said:

Updated status on the individual males:

I'm guessing there will only be one more Purgatory for them, and Jay's two Skulls won't be coming back into play. Basically, the odds that someone will be dismissed by Teege for not having a Skull are pretty slim. I could see a situation where both Josh and Kyle are left out in the cold, and two Skull-holders will battle it out in Purgatory. There's a part of me that likes weird stuff to happen, and having Josh and Kyle pitted against each other for the final Skull just seems so blah.

They still have to slim down the amount of players left. Don't we usually go into a final challenge with maybe 6 to 8 people?

My guess is that the purge challenge won't happen until after everyone has red skulls OR after a certain amount of players left (with or without red skulls), which I'm also guessing would still be followed up with an elimination.

Edited June 18, 2020 by AntFTW

[Lantern7]

On 6/18/2020 at 12:53 AM, AntFTW said:

They still have to slim down the amount of players left. Don't we usually go into a final challenge with maybe 6 to 8 people?

My guess is that the purge challenge won't happen until after everyone has red skulls OR after a certain amount of players left (with or without red skulls), which I'm also guessing would still be followed up with an elimination.

Admittedly, I am taking for granted that anyone with a Skull gets into the final mission, and that there wouldn't be a twist to purge players who had to fight in Purgatory to qualify. TJ dropping a bomb and declaring how he's "the dirtiest player in the game" is so tiresome. I think twelve people running at the end to start isn't out of the question. It'll probably be like WOTW1, where the field is whittled down either through elimination, injury-related quitting, or both.

[peachmangosteen]

Has another season been filmed already or was Total Madness the last one filmed before Covid?

[Eolivet]

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

Has another season been filmed already or was Total Madness the last one filmed before Covid?

The next filming would've been in March, I think, so as far as I know, it's only Total Madness (filmed in October-December).

Europe is banning Americans, and the virus is now hitting the developing world pretty hard. I'd have no idea who'd take them if they could film (Fiji? ha)

[joanne3482]

On 6/17/2020 at 11:48 PM, Lantern7 said:

Basically, the odds that someone will be dismissed by Teege for not having a Skull are pretty slim. I could see a situation where both Josh and Kyle are left out in the cold, and two Skull-holders will battle it out in Purgatory. There's a part of me that likes weird stuff to happen, and having Josh and Kyle pitted against each other for the final Skull just seems so blah.

I'm a little disappointed in that this seems to be exactly what is going to happen. I really wanted to see those that wouldn't go in get punished for waiting and get burned. Otherwise what's the point. 'You need a skull to run my final,' is fine as a concept, but if they have enough challenges where basically as long as 2 people without skulls go in every time everyone gets to run the final, it kind of defeats the purpose. I like the idea of there NOT being enough challenges and so those that didn't go in early are burned.  

[Lantern7]

1 hour ago, joanne3482 said:

I'm a little disappointed in that this seems to be exactly what is going to happen. I really wanted to see those that wouldn't go in get punished for waiting and get burned. Otherwise what's the point. 'You need a skull to run my final,' is fine as a concept, but if they have enough challenges where basically as long as 2 people without skulls go in every time everyone gets to run the final, it kind of defeats the purpose. I like the idea of there NOT being enough challenges and so those that didn't go in early are burned.  

You’re thinking that Josh and Kyle battling at the end is inevitable, a fair deal in an unfair game. In theory, those two and Bayleigh could be shut out of Purgatory. Think about it: what if Kyle and Josh make the final Tribunal? I was thinking aloud last week on Facebook during the episode, and a few posters in the Challenge-centered group suggested that the other member(s) of the Tribunal would vote on who would get to step down into Purgatory.

Or maybe one of the three Skull-less players would get shut out from the Tribunal, by the Tribunal, and in the “loser” vote. If Bayleigh doesn’t make Tribunal, her fate would be up in the air. If Josh and Kyle don’t make the Tribunal, one person confident in his abilities could send himself in, and the one on the outside winds up dismissed (and probably) dissed by Teege.

But yeah, it’ll probably be Josh/Kyle next week. Go, Kyle, because Josh winning is a terrible thought.

[joanne3482]

On 6/25/2020 at 12:42 PM, Lantern7 said:

You’re thinking that Josh and Kyle battling at the end is inevitable, a fair deal in an unfair game. In theory, those two and Bayleigh could be shut out of Purgatory. Think about it: what if Kyle and Josh make the final Tribunal? I was thinking aloud last week on Facebook during the episode, and a few posters in the Challenge-centered group suggested that the other member(s) of the Tribunal would vote on who would get to step down into Purgatory.

Since there's a men's elimination next week, if they hadn't throw in in Jay multiple times there would have been enough to have every guy go into Purgatory once to try to get their skull.  To me, it would have been better that instead of having 7 male and 7 female eliminations to have 5 of each, thus ensuring that there will not be enough eliminations and some would have no opportunity to run the final. But ultimately it is inevitable that we're going to have a Josh/Kyle Purgatory even though it would be so much smarter to have 2 with their skulls already go against each other. At the very least put Rogan (IMHO the strongest remaining player) up against either Josh or Kyle, thus ensuring they both go home (or by some freak chance Rogan goes home which gives the others better odds). 

[Lantern7]

3 hours ago, joanne3482 said:

Since there's a men's elimination next week . . .

I’m going with the assumption there will be a male and female-based Purgatory in the next episode. Sadly, I can see BMP doing two sets of double elimination.

[AntFTW]

I’m thinking there could be a purge challenge as well as an elimination, but obviously I’m not certain of that. They do a purge challenge challenge just about every season so I expect there to be one.

As far as the double eliminations are concerned, I’m expecting there to be a guy’s elimination and a women’s elimination... and based a mid-season trailer that we got, I expect Dee to be going in this week. We know she goes into eliminations at least one more time, and that may well be this week.

Edited June 29, 2020 by AntFTW

[Lantern7]

*sigh* Here are the Skull Standings following tonight's episode:

 After the latest set of Purgatories, the fun of speculating about someone getting left out of the final mission for not having a Skull is all gone. I'm thinking we get a final pair of eliminations next week, leaving us with a field of nine to run for the big money.

With Bear and Josh off the table, I'm thinking Dee wins. This is a series where hope goes to die, and having someone banned from BMP and edited out winning the whole thing would make sense. The other bad scenario is Johnny winning, breaking his losing streak at six seasons. Last season, I wrote about how I noticed that not only had his luck run dry, nobody who beat him in elimination from IOTC to WOTW2 has won a title of their own. If I'm being honest, I was hoping a few players would have read that before shipping off to Prague, and started taking the theory seriously. But he beat Wes and he's been getting a good edit . . . so Title #7 seems too possible.

[Direwolf]

On 6/4/2020 at 7:32 PM, ImpinAintEasy said:

He has always counted Champs vs Pros. At least ever since he won one. I think he is too savvy to let a spoiler like that slip, even if he does win this season, which honestly, he is the favorite right now. 

Spoiler

Guess he did let it slip!