LadyChatts

So next week's preview didn't give us much to go on. Wonder if it'll be a predictable boot (Christian, Alison, or Angelina, since those three had their names come up more than anyone else), or a true blindside.

I’d say they got greedy and cocky just like the Goliaths. Hopefully this doesn’t backfire. This season has been so good but an all Goliath final 4? No thanks. I did have to laugh when she said “sorry Alison” and it was her that ended up getting booted. I don’t get why she went so hard after Christian after everything he did for her. Like, she could have waited. Good on Davie for foiling her plan.

My heart can’t take much more of this season. Thank the Survivor Gods Christian is safe. Gabby took that better than I thought. I would love to see her play again, as I think gaining some perspective would help her the second time.

I don't follow any of the Survivors this season that closely on SM, except Christian, but in Angelina's case, I'm not surprised. Seeing her on the show and what little I've seen of her SM accounts, I think that's just her personality. She is Tracy Flick, after all ;) So I don't know if she's giving anything away or not. SM isn't for everyone, and I know there have been Survivors who were very active on SnapChat and Instagram, less so on Twitter, or vice versa. There have been Survivors through the years that signed up for a SM account just during their Survivor season and deleted it after. Looking at the potential jury make up, Angelina's odds aren't bad, because she's going to have a lot of former Goliaths on the jury, plus some Davids that she bonded with. The only Goliaths Nick had a chance to really bond with before the merge are sitting next to him in the final 3, if that rumor is true. In addition, he might be seen as someone who did the dirty work or not get recognized for the moves he made. And Mike is just there for fodder. I can see Angelina taking a page out of her pal Adam Klein's playbook and constantly interrupt any of the other finalists when they try and make a point to the jury about what they did in the game and either turn it into something bad or try and take the credit away. I find it humorous that Angelina could win with a not so flattering edit, but I'm starting to lean in that direction. I think some Survivors have been resigned to losing before the votes are cast just based on the FTC. I don't know if they are let in on who voted for them but they might just be able to figure it out based on what the jury is saying.

I know with as much thought as I'm putting into that one second of preview, the whole 'get Christian out' moment is going to be much ado about nothing. But maybe Gabby isn't stupid to do it after all. While it would definitely expose her and get rid of her shield and biggest champion, maybe, in a weird way, it would also take the focus off of her. Gabby gets rid of Christian, loses a crucial alliance member, but can then be a free agent, so to speak. The girl who voted off her biggest ally that kept her in the game this whole time, the emotional wreck, the non challenge threat. It probably wouldn't work with the likes of Nick or Davie, but maybe the others.

I'm so nervous for tomorrow, for this very reason :( The way the editing has gone this season, I don't know what to expect. So many people are saying no way Christian is going because of the preview, that TPTB wouldn't openly put in the preview the person who is voted off. Yet, because everyone believes that, maybe they would for that very reason. If a former Goliath goes, I'm thinking maybe Kara because she seemed to come out of nowhere with her edit and wanting to play the game. Alison, I'm not entirely sure why she's seems to be a target, but she does have a relationship with Gabby and has proven to be a physical threat. I just feel like there's more going on with her than we've seen. Angelina, I know I won't get that lucky, but her 9 lives might finally be up. She could over play her hand or try too hard to take control. Mike's the only one I feel might be safe; he doesn't seem to be a threat to anyone. The only argument I can make is he does flip flop, but being in a situation where there's 8 people left, his vote might be crucial. If a David goes, I'm more up in the air because I think there's a case to be made for all of them as to why they'd be safe or in danger. If Gabby does try to blindside Christian, that could cause him to play his idol, and the vote turn on her. Davie has proven to be a physical threat and has played a decent strategic/social game. Plus, he isn't someone that I feel would necessarily see the vote coming at this point so he might be deemed a safe pick to go after. Nick has played a good strategic and social game, but if he goes after Christian hard core that could turn it around on him; he also might feel too overconfident. And Christian is likable and with my luck he would go. Hopefully the IC is another endurance so he can literally talk people into dropping out. I find this cast pretty enjoyable so I'm probably going to miss whoever does get their torch snuffed. Right now I'd lean towards Kara, Gabby, or Christian.

I hope that Christian at least brings up the reasoning why they voted the way they did-not just that Carl was being bossy and wanting to get his own way, but that he and Gabby felt they weren't part of the alliance anymore, and therefore worried about their chances. I'm sure either way Nick will be pissed and just blow him off, but I don't necessarily think it was a terrible decision. Yes, it may now cost Christian, but he might have been screwed either way. If Carl was telling the truth about targeting Gabby next, I do wonder if Nick and Davie would have gone along with that and if they were aware that was his plan.

Yeah, I guess that spells the end of Mason/Dixon. But seriously, I still say Nick, Davie, and especially Carl made a stupid move and are at least partly to blame for Christian/Gabby turning on them.

Well, it could prove a few things-clearly Davie got close with Alec and John, close enough to actually wear his SlamTown merch. Now, obviously the show quit filming in May so they've had all these months to be home and get to know each other. And I believe sooner or later Davie will be making the trek to Ponderosa. I do think there is something to in game bonding, and Alec/Davie seem pretty close.

I've been wondering the same thing, too. And I feel like mid seasons interviews are something that just recently started (I might be wrong), but usually it was with one person at the merge. I don't know the full story of what went down with Alec getting banned. The contestants were told to sign NDA, which most casts just ignore the bulk of and do what they want. Alec posted a pic the day they came home or the day after from filming. Was given a warning I believe and a caption appeared that said 'f*** it'. Then it came out he and Kara both were potentially in big trouble, and there were threats that they could get sued for breaking the NDA, but only Alec got punished by being banned from the reunion. I'm guessing because it was his IG account. If the show thought it gave something away because they were pretending Dan/Kara were so close...Gabby/Christian are a lot closer than those two seemed to be. It's not like Kara/Dan were having nightly jungle make outs, and then suddenly she ruins the showmance fantasy by being pictured with Alec with filming ends. And Kara/Alec started on the same tribe, so they had that bond to being with.

Edited: I'm honestly up in the air this week who is going to go. I'm still thinking that it could be Gabby believes it is coming down to her or Christian leaving the game that night, especially with her seen talking to Alison and Kara in the preview (maybe Mike flips again and they are told that it'll be Gabby or Christian that the other side is targeting). I will be curious what her motive is for that, but I really hope it isn't just to make a move. Beyond that, I actually don't know, besides Mike/Angelina likely being safe due to the spoiler. I am loving this season of Survivor. Even an Angelina win won't entirely ruin it for me if that happens (though hopefully not). To be honest even Probst isn't annoying me this time around. He seems different and like he's actually having fun. The one thing I enjoyed last week during the negotiation was Probst looking like a kid on Christmas.

I think Gabby's biggest problem is that ultimately, she's just not going to be well liked by the jury. Unless she does something totally game shattering, I think her association with Christian and tears are going to come back to bite her. Whether she gets Christian next week or the week before, I just don't see her having a ton of support in the jury. Carl seemed cool in Ponderosa, but I do think he will be bitter depending on whose in the final 3. It's hard to say with the rest of them. I think that no matter what, she's just not getting a win. She is someone I'd love to see get a second chance, though. I think she'd learn from her first time around.

But I think Nick, Carl, and Davey totally mismanaged the situation by not bringing Gabby into the fold, and putting Christian in an awkward spot knowing how close they were. They should have just been up front with Gabby about wanting to vote out Alison. Instead, Angelina inserted herself in with the Davids and Carl was letting Kara in on votes before Gabby. So maybe Christian blew it by just going with Gabby and her emotions, but I don't believe Nick, Carl, or Davey did anything to help ease their confidence. So I'd argue they are partly to blame for the vote. And whether Carl really would have booted Gabby at the next TC or he's just playing revisionist history now I don't know, but if that was the case, clearly they made the right choice. However, I'm always skeptical when I hear comments like that in exit interviews.

If Gabby is looking to get Christian out solely to make a big move and so she can get credit going forward, then I think it'll backfire spectacularly. I'm not saying Christian shouldn't be targeted, but her and Christian have been tight allies. Many on the jury will look at it as she only made it this far because of Christian. If, say, Alison or Kara or Angelina got Christian out the next vote, then I think it'd be seen as a bigger deal-because Christian didn't carry them to this point. And as already been pointed out, where does Gabby go after this? Alison and Mike are wishy washy when it comes to sticking to an alliance, Kara and Angelina have no loyalty to her, and I doubt that Nick or Davey will have anything to do with her. And whose to say the Goliaths won't just re-align and pick the Davids off? Again, I hope if she does target Christian it isn't solely to make a big resume move.

Yet she got votes at the previous TC and aligned with a group that she has previously tried getting out simply because she could no longer trust her previous group. Everyone may be singing her praises in exit interviews, but she doesn’t seem as well liked with what we are seeing-and that’s only what we have to go by.

If Angelina makes it to the end and tries to use the whole sacrificing immunity for rice again, I hope someone on the jury asks if she had the tribe's best interest at heart when she sat the previous immunity challenge out for nachos.

The S29 cast was the last season I remember that had a strict SM ban, then it seemed to lax the next few seasons. The S31 cast come home and was posting pics, and it was easy to determine who made it extremely far based on weight loss. I know Vytas got uninvited from the reunion for leaving Ponderosa early and lying about the reason, but he also posted on SM and was home teaching yoga while filming was going on (yet it seemed like him lying about why he wanted to leave was why he wasn't invited). During S32, there was a ban put in place mid season because Jason was essentially posting spoilers, including a picture of his half of the super idol before he even found it (IIRC). And Caleb was on SM while Game Changers was filming, and the Ghost Island cast was following each other and showing up at charity events before they were officially announced. Other spoiler sites figured out who the pre-jurors were from Ghost Island pretty easily based on who was following who initially. So yeah, it seemed pretty harsh to punish Alec like this for doing something other contestants before him did, and his pic wasn't overly revealing of anything at the time (he and Kara did start on the same tribe, after all). That's why I'm wondering if you are correct that it wasn't so much that, but the caption. It's too bad, because like others here, I really grew to like Alec this season. I was very impressed with his edit and game play, and he seemed like a fun, likable guy that really loved the game. I'd like to think this was punishment enough and they'd give a second chance at the game, but I'm sure that's doubtful.

I had forgotten about that part. I know that was another reason people speculated Alec had to have been an early boot, was that caption. I'm wondering if that's just all a coincidence or if something happened in the final days of the game and Alec/Kara were directing that at someone. I haven't checked it out myself, but another site says Davey had an #UnBanAlec hashtag on his SM accounts. Despite the fact that Alec was a good game player and likable, decent character, he'd probably still get ignored by Probst anyway. According to that reddit spoiler, another castaway isn't attending the reunion for leaving Ponderosa early, and it's believed to be Jeremy. We'll see if that's true. What I'm trying to understand is how Caleb was the second person voted off Game Changers and was on his wife's SM in the days before filming even finished but nothing happened to him.

The thing about Gabby and Christian trying to turn the vote on him, just for him to play his idol and target another threat, is that they either have to have people on their side, or hope the others don't split the votes. And the Davids, while outnumbered, already managed to do just that which led to John's ouster. BasicallyGabby/Christian could target Nick, for example, but that still leaves 6 other people who could vote 3 for Christian, 3 for Gabby, and get her out, unless they can get someone else on their side. Essentially they are left with Nick, Davey, and Goliath floaters at this point who are likely going to go with the majority. And I don't believe anyone wants to go to the end with Christian.

Gabby doesn't seem like someone who smokes but maybe that's her problem, too. I don't smoke but have friends and family who do, some of whom I've helped try to quit. I can't imagine abandoning a habit like that cold turkey for 39 days (really, over 39 days with them going out pre-filming for about a week) and not act like a homicidal maniac. I remember Marilyn from the Outback season had patches on, but I don't know if they allow that anymore. Seeing how Carl's emotions seemed to cloud his game play, maybe that all goes back to that. I really enjoyed Alec's Ponderosa more than Carl's, only for the wake up call he gave John. I about died when he was standing there with his guitar and started belting out a song, as poor John is trying to sleep. I thought there was kind of a different vibe when both Alec and Carl showed up, but glad it still seems to be going well.

Now this rumored final 3 is making more sense, and after the Carl vote and upcoming preview especially. I think it's a gamble to automatically assume everyone from your former tribe is going to vote for you, especially if you just took two goats to the end (which is what Mike is at this point, but I'm guessing that's what Nick will assume Angelina to be). Nick has played a somewhat impressive game so I will say he's got that going for him. While I still fail to see Angelina winning based on her edit, I won't completely rule it out, but I do think Nick has a slight edge. She may seem well liked now, but this season filmed months ago and everyone has been home getting to know each other. Mike might have just burned too many bridges and been too much of a flip flopper to win. I'd be stunned if he got even one vote. I can't even really predict who the current jury will vote for, let alone the remaining castaways who will wind up on the jury, but I just don't see him having any support. Guess I'm finally resigned to the fact Christian isn't going to win :(

Now I'm wondering if the preview isn't so much Gabby targeting Christian for no reason, but maybe this put them further on the outs, since it's either her or him. I do wonder where this is going to leave them with Nick and Davey, and whether Kara and Mike will stand by them. Alison may just go with the majority. I really hope it doesn't come down to Gabby and Christian just getting picked off, and them having to turn on each other to save themselves. This season has been going too well for that to happen.

I think Carl, and maybe even Nick and Davey, made Christian and Gabby uncomfortable that suddenly they were consulting two Goliaths before consulting them-one of those Goliaths who happened to be an ally of the very people Carl wanted to vote off. It didn't seem like Carl was willing to discuss the vote, it was just who he wanted. He made valid points about Alec and probably Alison, just executed it all wrong. Again, this might have just been a 'get them before they get us' type vote, when Christian/Gabby literally had no one after Alison left and ended up getting picked off. I think Mike and Kara would go with the majority. It puts the Davids and Goliaths even at 4-4 and the Davids have two idols. Will Angelina really go running back to the 3 Goliaths that tried to vote her off? I'd find it slightly comical if she did.

I've been thinking this over and am not sure it was entirely a terrible idea. I guess I'm looking at it from a numbers perspective, and still wondering what exactly is going on with Mason/Dixon. Now, Angelina somehow thought she was in with all the Davids and had essentially bumped Gabby out of that alliance. Yet Carl was all about David Strong, and I'm going to assume Nick and Davey felt the same way. So I don't know where Angelina got that impression, unless she was told or just assumed for whatever reason. Christian/Gabby may not have had an opportunity to boot Carl if another Goliath went. Mike seems very unpredictable, I believe Davey is closer to Carl and would likely target Christian as being a threat, and if Alison went, that would have left Angelina/Gabby/Kara/Christian/Nick/Davey/Carl/Mike. Kara also seems like she's unpredictable and will go with whoever gets her another 3 days at this point, because she has nothing to lose. Christian knows he's a threat, and I am wondering why Nick seemed to be more with Davey/Carl than with Christian last night (that we saw). So I don't know, maybe Christian believed this was his only opportunity to boot Carl and keep Alison, who he did have a flimsy alliance with. I don't even think he wanted Alec to go but didn't have a choice (and it would have been stupid to give the Goliaths back their numbers, especially to keep an immunity thread around). So I guess I can see that it was both a good idea and a bad idea to boot Carl.

To be fair, he at least said he packed his bags every TC. There've been plenty of Survivor who got booted without their belongings because they were that confident. So at least he won't be jacketless at Ponderosa ;)