S05.E01: The Wars To Come: Speculation Thread

[Meredith Quill]

Episode Synopsis:

Cersei and Jaime adjust to a world without Tywin. Varys reveals a conspiracy to Tyrion. Dany faces a new threat to her rule. Jon is caught between two kings.

 

Here is the place to speculate about what events may or may not occur in episode 1 only.
There will be weekly episode spec threads for individual episodes from now on so please either save your thoughts about other episodes for the relevant week or post them in another appropriate thread.
This is a Book Talk thread, therefore, if you are unspoiled please leave now or risk spoilers.
Thank you.

[SilverShadow]

Sounds like Tywin's funeral and all the lovely fallout surrounding it, Varys getting Tyrion onboard the Dany train, The introduction of the  Sons of the Harpy plotline, and Jon trying to handle the negotiations between the Wildlings and Stannis, which will sow the seeds for the assassination. I'm so glad the Aegon stuff is getting jettisoned. G.R.R.M. seems to have this need to plant a billion false leads and shaggy dog stories for 'realism' but at a certain point it's just exhausting and you want to go all Monty Python "GET ON WITH IT!"

[BlackberryJam]

Absolutely, GET ON WITH IT. It might be an unpopular opinion, but I am thrilled that the show is cutting out a ton of these red herrings and side plots.

So...the rumors have the season starting with the Maggy the Frog prophecy. I am interested in knowing if we will get the full prophecy from the book or if we will get a shortened or altered version. I had expected the title to relate to the prophecy, valonqar or something. Aegon can go, Ironbord can go, Queenmaker can mostly go.

I've read both the Stannis the Mannis and Lyanna Stark Facebook spoilers and I think it looks like a solid episode.

[Maximum Taco]

Anyone think like I do that there's a hidden pun in this episode title?

 

The Wars To Come = The Worst To Come?

 

It seems like this episode is gonna lay the groundwork for a brutal season. Not brutal as in bad quality, but brutal as in bad stuff gonna happen.

[Holmbo]

I'm generally not a fan of prophecies and such but I'm really excited about the Valonqar one because there's been so many crazy theories for it and I want to see what the unsullied makes of it. I think they might change Valonqar to Younger Brother in the show. Since it essentially means the same thing and they can't have the Cersei monologue thinking this is what valonqar means.

[Maximum Taco]

I'm generally not a fan of prophecies and such but I'm really excited about the Valonqar one because there's been so many crazy theories for it and I want to see what the unsullied makes of it. I think they might change Valonqar to Younger Brother in the show. Since it essentially means the same thing and they can't have the Cersei monologue thinking this is what valonqar means.

 

Don't really need her to monologue. I doubt little Cersei spoke a ton of High Valyrian. And even if she did it's super doubtful Melara did. One of them could just ask in the flashback. 

 

But I agree they might just change it.

[DigitalCount]

She might be able to explain it to someone else, though. I hope they leave it in Valyrian, because as far as my theory goes, it's crucial for the misdirection. From a practical standpoint I can't imagine even Cersei being stubborn enough to assume that Maggy's talking about her own brother if she says "younger brother" while talking about the children.

[BlackberryJam]

They could always just leave out the valonqar line and say and when your tears have drowned you (leaves rustle water running) shall wrap his hands blah blah blah and if this flashback is crazy Cersei, why not during that running water moment have various images flash Jaime, Tommen, Arya, Loras, Rickon, etc, with the longest image being Tyrion?

 

Yeah...I'm film schooling ideas here.

[Maximum Taco]

They could always just leave out the valonqar line and say and when your tears have drowned you (leaves rustle water running) shall wrap his hands blah blah blah and if this flashback is crazy Cersei, why not during that running water moment have various images flash Jaime, Tommen, Arya, Loras, Rickon, etc, with the longest image being Tyrion?

 

Yeah...I'm film schooling ideas here.

 

That kind of robs people of the satisfaction of solving the riddle though. It goes from an actual puzzle to a scenario where anyone could be the culprit and really you're just guessing.

 

If it does turn out to be Tommen, or Jaime it would be more satisfying for them to say little brother (or valonqar) and figure out that it's not Tyrion the Maegi is talking about but a different little brother.

Edited March 9, 2015 by Maximum Taco

[BlackberryJam]

That's only satisfying IF the valonqar is Jaime or Tommen or if there is a valonqar.  That prophecy is kind of a mess, as prophecies should be.  For example, it never says "younger more beautiful queen" it says, "comes another, younger and more beautiful."

 

The mystery for the Unsullied would be, "what did Maggy say at that moment and why does Cersei think it's Tyrion?"  

 

If the valonqar is say...Loras, who is also a younger brother, or Rickon, or Bran, it's not going to be satisfying at all to use the word "valonqar."

 

Even, "he shall wrap his hands.." would be enough.

[Maximum Taco]

That's only satisfying IF the valonqar is Jaime or Tommen or if there is a valonqar.  That prophecy is kind of a mess, as prophecies should be.  For example, it never says "younger more beautiful queen" it says, "comes another, younger and more beautiful."

 

The mystery for the Unsullied would be, "what did Maggy say at that moment and why does Cersei think it's Tyrion?"  

 

If the valonqar is say...Loras, who is also a younger brother, or Rickon, or Bran, it's not going to be satisfying at all to use the word "valonqar."

 

Even, "he shall wrap his hands.." would be enough.

 

So then we're leaving it open to every male in the entirety of existance?

 

I think they need to say something about either the valonqar or younger brother. There needs to be a reason beyond her hatred of him that points her to Tyrion.

[Holmbo]

Yes that prophecy is really messy. Which is fun because we get so many different weird theories about it. But I feel like in order for it not to be ridiculous it would have to be the younger brother of either Cersei, her usurper or her kids. Our I guess Robert or his bastards.

But I feel her kids is the most likely.

[BlackberryJam]

So then we're leaving it open to every male in the entirety of existance?

 

I think they need to say something about either the valonqar or younger brother. There needs to be a reason beyond her hatred of him that points her to Tyrion.

 

We aren't leaving it open to anything.  GRRM left it open to almost endless interpretation.  Depending on it's final resolution, D&D can only narrow it.

[Avaleigh]

Yeah, I mean I've seen people theorize that it could be Arya disguised as Tommen. The valonquar could be anyone but I think it's probably going to be Jaime. I'd like it to be Tyrion or wightified Tommen though. 

[Maximum Taco]

We aren't leaving it open to anything.  GRRM left it open to almost endless interpretation.  Depending on it's final resolution, D&D can only narrow it.

 

Personally I don't think GRRM left it open to all that much interpretation. He just tried to misdirect us into thinking it would be Tyrion. And then our own perceptions make Jaime a more likely culprit then Tommen.

 

But, I mean look at the quote in context.

 

"Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds, she said. And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you."

 

Maggy talks about Cersei's own children and then says "the valonqar" so to me it doesn't make any sense unless it's the younger brother among her own children, so Tommen.

 

You can theorize until the cows come home that it'll be Arya or Stannis, but it doesn't make any sense unless it's Tommen. Even Jaime doesn't make much sense to me.

Edited March 9, 2015 by Maximum Taco

[Avaleigh]

Why include the detail of Jaime being born second if it isn't to make us suspect that it'll be the valonqar? Don't we find out about their birth order in AFFC?

[Constantinople]

"Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds, she said. And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you."

 

Maggy talks about Cersei's own children and then says "the valonqar" so to me it doesn't make any sense unless it's the younger brother among her own children, so Tommen.

Maggy talks about Cersei's children having shrouds and then says "the valonqar". How can Tommen choke the life out of Cersei if he's already dead?

For that matter, the valonqar can't very well choke the life from Cersei if she's already drowned. Presumably the "tears have drowned" is a metaphor, in which case the rest of the line may be as well.

[Maximum Taco]

Why include the detail of Jaime being born second if it isn't to make us suspect that it'll be the valonqar? Don't we find out about their birth order in AFFC?

 

No I think we find out in ASOS.

 

Oberyn tells Tyrion that even if Tywin crowns Tommen in King's Landing, Doran might crown Myrcella in Sunspear, and Tyrion thinks that Cersei might side with Myrcella's claim since it would set a precedent for her inheriting Casterly Rock cause she is the eldest.

Edited March 10, 2015 by Maximum Taco

[DigitalCount]

Maggy talks about Cersei's children having shrouds and then says "the valonqar". How can Tommen choke the life out of Cersei if he's already dead?

Death is hardly a barrier for murder, it didn't stop those watchmen up North from giving it a good try. I tend to think that the choking part is significant for this reason.

Also, it's AFFCersei. If ever someone deserved a good choking even if the laws of nature should forbid it, it's her.

[Constantinople]

Maggy talks about Cersei's children having shrouds and then says "the valonqar". How can Tommen choke the life out of Cersei if he's already dead?

 

 

Death is hardly a barrier for murder, it didn't stop those watchmen up North from giving it a good try. I tend to think that the choking part is significant for this reason.

True enough and, oddly enough I was wondering about wights after I posted, although I was thinking of Cersei as a wight rather than Tommen.

[Hecate7]

She's thinking it's necessarily HER younger brother. But since that's probably intentional misdirection, Tommen does make the most sense. He is "the valonquar" to the nation, since he is the younger brother of the late king. Stannis is also a logical possibility, but Tommen makes more sense, since he is also the valonqar among Cersei's own children.

[Constantinople]

She's thinking it's necessarily HER younger brother. But since that's probably intentional misdirection, Tommen does make the most sense. He is "the valonquar" to the nation, since he is the younger brother of the late king. Stannis is also a logical possibility, but Tommen makes more sense, since he is also the valonqar among Cersei's own children.

Is Valonqar "younger brother" or "little brother"? The two aren't necessarily the same. For example, Jaime may still be Cersei's younger brother, but in the show, and I think the book, he's no longer her little brother as he's taller than her (though people still usually think of a younger brother as little and vice-versa).

Tommen is the younger/little brother of Joffrey, but since Joffrey is a false king, Tommen isn't the younger/little brother to the nation (or he's as false as Joffrey).

Also, why use valonqar in the prophecy instead of younger/little brother? Is the use of a high/old Valaryian word meant to signify something about the valonqar's ancestry?

[Hecate7]

He IS as false as Joffery, in the sense that he is also illegitmate but is ruling from the Iron Throne. The mere fact of ruling, and being the little brother of the late king, legitimate or not, makes him the little brother to the Seven Kingdoms. I don't think there's much difference in significance between "little" and "younger" where brothers are concerned.

[Constantinople]

Except Tommen is "king" now so he's no longer "younger brother" of the nation; he's the "father" of the nation.

 

If valonqar is little, but not younger, and if Tyrion is Aerys's son -- an idea which I don't care for, I'd prefer it if Tyrion really was Tywin's son -- then Tyrion is of Valyrian stock and Daenerys's little, but not younger, brother.

 

If R+L=J, then Jon Snow has Valyrian ancestry and he's Aegon & Rhaenys little/younger brother.

 

Of course, there's also "...until there comes another, younger and more beautiful, to cast you down and take all that you hold dear."

 

If that another is also the valonqar, that would seem to rule out Tyrion.

 

Who knows.

 

It better not be something stupid like a mistranslation of the word valonqar by an under educated septa.

[BlackberryJam]

Episode 1 summary from the Premiere

 

http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/2zjhea/spoilers_all_episode_501_synopsis_posted_on_wotw/

[mac123x]

Tyrion:  "Prophecy is like a half-trained mule. It looks as though it might be useful, but the moment you trust in it, it kicks you in the head."  And then there's Marwyn's quote analogizing it to a treacherous woman...

 

It's written so vaguely and so open to intepretation that, for me, any resolution to it is going to be diappointing, unless it's an un-twist and the Valonqar is indeed Tyrion.  Then it becomes self-fulfilling, since Cercei's actions to try to prevent it will have driven Tyrion to kill her.

 

...and Jon trying to handle the negotiations between the Wildlings and Stannis, which will sow the seeds for the assassination.

 

Jon being caught between two kings could refer to his trying to deal with Stannis without completely alienating Tommen, i.e., his letter explaining that Stannis is helping defend the wall but the Nights Watch takes no part in the realms internal conflicts.  Incidentally, are they glossing over Jon's election, or is he just temporarily in charge because he's the last man standing?

[BlackberryJam]

And the valonqar bit is cut completely from the show, according to summaries posted. No valonqar, no little brother, no Cersei death part at all.

[SeanC]

And the valonqar bit is cut completely from the show, according to summaries posted. No valonqar, no little brother, no Cersei death part at all.

My guess is that the most obvious answer is the correct one (Jaime), and the writers, who strongly favour shock value over anything else, don't want to give that away.  In truth, I'm kind of surprised they're bringing Maggy in at all if it's just for the YMBQ part.

[ElizaD]

Maggy might be the most pointless book content inclusion in the series. If the younger queen is Margaery, the show has already done far more than the books to establish their rivalry and Cersei wanting her out of the way makes perfect sense. If the younger queen is Dany, the prophecy is even more pointless because Cersei will have very little left to take by the time she finally gets to Westeros. Without the valonqar, it spoils Tommen/Myrcella's deaths, telling viewers not to care too much about their plots because they're guaranteed to fail in some way, and doesn't even offer the Tyrion or Jaime? tension about Cersei's death. The prophecy was the perfect thing to cut from the show, and yet half of it been included. The only reason that I can think of for its inclusion on a show that's downplayed prophecy and magic is that the showrunners adore the Lannisters and see them as the new core family, as one of the writers said (Cersei gets a prophecy and a respected actor to play the High Sparrow, Tommen gets more to do as the good young king, Myrcella gets a Romeo), but compared to the stuff they've invented (Jaime in Dorne) or extended (King's Landing), it's still useless. And based on the summary, it sounds like the show forgot that it gave Cersei a child with the king, the firstborn who died.

[Dev F]

Well, it depends on whether that's the only mention of the prophecy, doesn't it? It's possible that later episodes will return to it, either through further flashbacks or through present-day Cersei's reminiscences.

 

One possibility that occurred to me: in the TV series, the only reason that Maggie's prophecy turned out to be true is because Cersei and Robert's son was stillborn, and there was some suggestion that Cersei may have killed him. Perhaps she'll be confronted with the thought that by killing Robert's child, she herself caused the prophecy to come true. To me, that seems like a more interesting way to explore the interaction between choice and destiny than the book's rather silly notion that she left her little friend to die in a well because the prophecy said it would happen.

Edited March 19, 2015 by Dev F

[SeanC]

One possibility that occurred to me: in the TV series, the only reason that Maggie's prophecy turned out to be true is because Cersei and Robert's son was stillborn, and there was some suggestion that Cersei may have killed him. Perhaps she'll be confronted with the thought that by killing Robert's child, she herself caused the prophecy to come true. To me, that seems like a more interesting way to explore the interaction between choice and destiny than the book's rather silly notion that she left her little friend to die in a well because the prophecy said it would happen.

The only suggestion that Cersei killed Robert's baby in the show is from fans who were trying to reconcile this anecdote with the book version of the character early on.  Everything from the show itself indicates it's meant to be completely sincere.

[Dev F]

The only suggestion that Cersei killed Robert's baby in the show is from fans who were trying to reconcile this anecdote with the book version of the character early on.  Everything from the show itself indicates it's meant to be completely sincere.

 

I dunno, considering the context of the revelation was "I'm so sorry your son almost died in a manner that did not involve me convincing my incestuous lover to push him out a window! I also had a son who died in a way that was totally not my fault!" I think there's legitimate room to suspect that she was not being entirely honest.

[SeanC]

I dunno, considering the context of the revelation was "I'm so sorry your son almost died in a manner that did not involve me convincing my incestuous lover to push him out a window! I also had a son who died in a way that was totally not my fault!" I think there's legitimate room to suspect that she was not being entirely honest.

TV!Cersei is incredibly watered down compared to the book version.  Moreover, she also brings up the baby in her conversation with Robert a few episodes later, in another moment we're told is totally sincere.

[Avaleigh]

Yeah, D&D confirmed that Cersei was being sincere when she talked about her pain of losing her first (and only) child with Robert.